Archive for February 7, 2012

Israeli officials: Terrorists may get Syria’s weapons

February 7, 2012

Israeli officials: Terrorists may get Syria’s weapons – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Weapons include advanced SA missiles, high-trajectory long-range rockets and missiles, and biological and chemical weapons, officials say.

By Amos Harel

With violence mounting, the growing threat to President Bashar Assad’s regime is raising concern in Israel that weapons from Syria’s military could fall into the hands of terrorist groups, defense officials told Haaretz on Monday.

Following the bloody weekend assault on Homs by Assad’s forces, Israeli defense sources said large amounts of weapons could be transferred to Hezbollah, in Lebanon, or to other organizations.

Free Syrian Army - AP - 07022012 A member of the Free Syrian Army at a protest in Idlib on Monday.
Photo by: AP

The weapons include advanced SA missiles, high-trajectory long-range rockets and missiles, and biological and chemical weapons, the officials said.

Speaking last week at the Herzliya Conference, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said: “It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen in Syria. We’re watching for attempts to pass advanced weapons systems that could edge the delicate balance in Lebanon to Hezbollah.”

Incoming Israel Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel told foreign journalists in Jerusalem last month that, as far as Assad’s fall is concerned, “the question is when, not if. And the big question is what will happen the following day.”

Eshel said Israel’s immediate concern is Syria’s huge cache of chemical and biological weapons – coming mainly from East European states – and into whose hands it will fall.

“What has been passed on to Hezbollah so far? What will be passed on in the future? What will be divided between the two factions in Syria?” he asked.

Israel has been warning for several years that Syria may provide Hezbollah with advanced weapons systems. The foreign media reported that Hezbollah has maintained training bases and arsenals in Syria, near the Lebanon border, since 2008. Arab media reported Syria had moved Scud missiles to Hezbollah camps in Lebanon and that advanced SA missiles had been set up in the mountains of Lebanon.

Other reports, unconfirmed by Israel, said Israel considered attacking convoys carrying weapons from Syria to Lebanon on several occasions in recent years.

However, the concern is greater now because Assad’s forces seem to be losing their grip on the state. This could result in passing weapons to Hezbollah, or in radical Sunni factions taking over the arsenals, the officials said.

After Muammar Gadhafi’s regime collapsed in Libya last year, the army’s caches were looted and SA missiles and rockets found their way to various terror organizations – from militias in east Africa, to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, officials said.

Iran calls US assets ban an ‘antagonistic’ move

February 7, 2012

Iran calls US assets ban an ‘ant… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

 

By REUTERS 02/07/2012 09:30
Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman says “Sanctions will not have any impact on our nuclear course,” calls US sanctions targeting central bank “psychological war which has no impact.”

Iranians burn US flag on hostage crisis anniverary By Reuters

TEHRAN – Iran on Tuesday rejected as an “antagonistic move” a tightening of US sanctions that targets the Islamic state’s central bank and gives US banks new powers to freeze assets linked to the Iranian government.

“It is an antagonistic move … a psychological war which has no impact … There is nothing new, it has been going on for over 30 years,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a weekly news conference.

“Sanctions will not have any impact on our nuclear course.”

The move, in an executive order signed by President Barack Obama, was the latest measure to target the Central Bank of Iran, and was intended to close loopholes in existing sanctions Tehran has faced.

In a letter to Congress, Obama said Iranian banks were hiding transactions to undercut the financial sanctions the United States and other powers have imposed in response to Iran’s nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building bombs.

Iran says it needs nuclear technology to generate electricity and not to build bombs.

Syria’s death toll mounts on eve of Lavrov visit; U.S. closes embassy, UK recalls envoy

February 7, 2012

Syria’s death toll mounts on eve of Lavrov visit; U.S. closes embassy, UK recalls envoy.

A damaged armored military vehicle after clashes between President Bashar al-Assad forces and Free Syrian Army in Cairo square near Khaldiyeh area in Homs. (Reuters)

A damaged armored military vehicle after clashes between President Bashar al-Assad forces and Free Syrian Army in Cairo square near Khaldiyeh area in Homs. (Reuters)

Violence in Syria killed as many as 128 people on the eve of a visit to Damascus by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov aimed at pressing President Bashar al-Assad to end an 11-month uprising by implementing swift reform. Washington, meanwhile, closed its Damascus embassy and Britain recalled its ambassador.

Monday’s deaths included 19 children and 15 women. At least 61 people have been killed in Homs alone, as the neighborhoods of Bayyada, Ensha’at and Bab Amro are still bombarded by all kinds of rockets and mortar shells, Al Arabiya reported citing Syrian activists.

The violence on Monday came as world powers scrambled for a diplomatic strategy after the defeat of a U.N. Security Council resolution backing an Arab League call for Assad to give up power and start a political transition.

A member of the main opposition Syrian National Council said Assad’s forces killed scores of people people in a sustained bombardment of Homs, a center of armed opposition to his rule, two days after activists reported more than 200 people were killed in shelling.

Syrian authorities, who have denied firing on houses, said security forces killed “tens of terrorists” in Homs on Monday morning. An Interior Ministry statement said six members of the security forces were killed in the clashes, according to Reuters.

A resident of Homs told AFP the latest assault began shortly after 0400 GMT Monday, with unprecedented barrages of rockets, mortar rounds and artillery shells.

“What is happening is horrible, it’s beyond belief,” said activist Omar Shaker, reached by telephone as loud detonations were heard in the background.

“There is nowhere to take shelter, nowhere to hide,” he said. “We are running short of medical supplies and we are only able to provide basic treatment to the injured.”

One video posted on YouTube apparently showed a field hospital hit by shelling in the Baba Amro district and wounded patients lying on stretchers on the floor amid pools of blood and shattered glass.

Footage shot by a BBC undercover team in Homs showed buildings ablaze in rebel neighborhoods as they were pounded with heavy weapons.

Damascus blames “terrorist gangs”

Damascus blamed the bloodshed in Homs on “terrorist gangs” using mortars.

The State Department said it had closed the American embassy in Syria and withdrawn remaining staff after Damascus refused to address security concerns.

Senior State Department officials told CNN that two embassy employees left by air last week and 15 others, including Ambassador Robert Ford, left overland through Jordan on Monday morning.

The Polish government is to provide emergency consular services to any American citizens remaining in Syria.

Britain recalled its ambassador to Syria “for consultations,” Foreign Secretary William Hague told parliament, according to AFP.

“We will use our remaining channels to the Syrian regime to make clear our abhorrence at the violence that is utterly unacceptable to the civilized world,” Hague said.

Belgium also recalled its ambassador from Damascus.

U.S. President Barack Obama said that, however hard Western countries are prepared to lean on Assad diplomatically, they still had no intention of using force to topple him, as they did against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya last year.

“I think it is very important for us to try to resolve this without recourse to outside military intervention. And I think that’s possible,” he told NBC’s Today show.

“There has been a great deal of collective action taken against the Syrian regime thus far,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters. “There will be greater action taken, and we’re going to work with all the friends of Syria and the Syrian people to continue to pressure the Assad regime.”

Carney insisted that Assad was “running out of money” and said the United States would coordinate with allies to “make sure that he is unable to finance his continued crackdown.”

Western “hysteria”

Russia fought back against blistering criticism from the West for blocking the U.N. resolution on Saturday. Foreign Minister Lavrov said condemnations of Moscow’s veto had verged on “hysteria”.

He was heading to Syria on Tuesday because Moscow sought “the swiftest stabilization of the situation in Syria on the basis of the swiftest implementation of democratic reforms whose time has come,” Lavrovs ministry said, according to Reuters.

Syria’s opposition, which rejected a Russian invitation for talks with Syrian officials in Moscow, says Assad’s promised reforms are not credible after his crackdown on protests in which as many as 6,000 people have been killed.

In addition to months of national unrest, the Syrian capital was hit by suicide bombings in December and January.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, after meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that he would call Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to discuss the international response to the crisis.

Neither France nor Germany, he said, would accept the “blocking” of action on Syria.

Saudi Arabia called for “critical measures” on Syria and warned of an impending “humanitarian disaster” after the failure of the U.N. resolution.

The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Riyadh is the leading member, is to meet on Saturday on Syria, on the eve of an Arab League ministerial meeting at the organization’s Cairo headquarters.

EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton and Brazilian foreign minister Antonio Patriota on Monday underscored their support for the Arab League effort to end violence in Syria.

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil al-Araby told Reuters he spoke to Lavrov on Monday and said the foreign minister would present an initiative to Damascus. He gave no details and when asked if he thought it could end the crisis, he replied: “They believe so.’

Russia trying to buy time

Russia, seeking to retain a foothold in the Middle East centered on its military ties with Damascus, may be torn between trying to bolster Assad and seeking his exit. It also could take a middle path, trying to buy time by counseling the government to make some concessions and reduce the bloodshed.

“I think that now, after Russia imposed a veto, Lavrov (is) travelling to tell Assad that we did everything possible,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

“Now the main task for Lavrov is to tell Assad that if there is no visible change in Syria, then regardless of the Russian position he should be bracing for external military measures,” Lukyanov said.

Russia argued that Saturday’s draft U.N. resolution was one-sided and would have amounted to taking the side of Assad’s opponents in a civil war. China also vetoed the measure, by most accounts following Russia’s lead.

“Some of the voices heard in the West with evaluations of the results of the vote in the U.N. Security Council on the Syria resolution sound, I would say, improper, somewhere on the verge of hysteria,” Lavrov said.

A chorus of European officials — and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who called the veto a “travesty” — condemned Russia and China in terms unusually harsh by diplomatic norms and said they would bear responsibility for future bloodshed.

French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet said on Monday: “There are political cultures which deserve a kick …… To accept that a dictator can operate freely is disgraceful for governments that accept it.”

Clinton said on Sunday the United States would work with other nations to try to tighten sanctions against Assad’s government and deny it arms in the absence of a U.N. resolution.

U.N. chief appalled at escalating Syria violence

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the escalating violence in Syria appalling and told the government Monday that the Security Council’s disagreement over a resolution condemning the bloodshed was not a license to escalate attacks, according to The Associated Press.

Ban called the mounting death toll, and especially the continued artillery shelling of civilian area in the city of Homs, “totally unacceptable before humanity,” his spokesman Martin Nesirky said. The U.N. chief expressed regret that Syrian authorities continue to ignore calls to stop using violence against civilians and urged “all concerned in Syria” and the international community to redouble efforts to try to stop the violence.

General Assembly President Nassir Abdulaziz al-Nasser reiterated the urgent calls of the U.N., Arab League, and international community for Syrian authorities to immediately end the killings and halt human rights violations.

Al-Nasser, Qatar’s former U.N. ambassador, urged Assad “to listen to the voices and aspirations of his people” and called on the Security Council to continue to try to reach a common position that will bring lasting peace, stability and democracy to Syria.

“The longer the Security Council remains divided in adopting a consensus position on developments in Syria the more difficult the situation becomes, with more Syrians being killed daily,” al-Nasser warned.

Activists said a blast hit an oil pipeline feeding a main refinery in Homs on Monday, the second attack in a week. Separately, three people died when the opposition-held town of Zabadani, near the Lebanese border, came under fire on Monday.

Local fighters said they would hit “regime targets” if the army did not pull back by Tuesday morning.

Syrian army defectors announced they were organizing a new “Higher Revolutionary Council” to supersede the Free Syrian Army (FSA) as the main armed force battling Assad’s rule. The new body would be commanded by General Ahmed al-Sheikh, the highest-ranking officer to defect to Turkey from government forces.

Iran boosts nuke work in bunker as U.S. and Europe plan major amphibious drill

February 7, 2012

Iran boosts nuke work in bunker as U.S. and Europe plan major amphibious drill.

Iran last month confirmed it had begun refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent at Fordow. (Illustration by Amarjit Sidhu)

Iran last month confirmed it had begun refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent at Fordow. (Illustration by Amarjit Sidhu)

Iran is believed to be expanding uranium enrichment activity deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said on Monday, a move likely to add to tension with Western powers that suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability, as the U.S. and eight other countries were staging a major amphibious exercise, fighting an Iran-like fictional enemy.

The move to increase sensitive nuclear work at the Fordow underground site near the Shiite Muslim holy city of Qom, even if expected, underlines the Islamic state’s defiance in the face of intensifying Western pressure to curb such activity.

Iran last month confirmed it had begun refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent at Fordow, shifting its highest-grade enrichment from an above-ground location to better protect it against any strikes by Israel or the United States.

Washington, which has not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to resolve the long-running nuclear dispute, on Jan. 9 denounced the start-up of the Fordow plant as a further escalation of Iran’s “ongoing violations” of U.N. resolutions.

At that time, diplomats said Iran was operating at Fordow two so-called cascades, each of 174 centrifuges — machines that spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope. More centrifuges were being installed, they said.

Enriched uranium can have both civilian and military uses.

One Vienna-based diplomat said two more cascades, like the first pair connected with each other to make the process more efficient, had now also been deployed to enrich uranium.

“The second set of cascades is operational … my understanding is they are both operational and (have) no problems,” the diplomat said, according to Reuters.

Another diplomat accredited to the IAEA also painted a picture of expanding activity at Fordow, without giving details.

Neither Iran nor the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based U.N. agency that regularly inspects Iranian nuclear sites including Fordow, was immediately available for comment.

Fordow enrichment plant

Iran said last year that it would transfer its highest-grade uranium refinement work to Fordow from its main enrichment plant at Natanz, and sharply boost capacity.

The decision to move work which the U.N. Security Council has called on Iran to suspend to an underground facility could further complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the standoff peacefully.

The United States and its allies say Iran is trying to develop the means to make atomic bombs, but Tehran insists its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity and isotopes for medical treatment.

President Barack Obama tightened sanctions on Iran another notch, the White House said on Monday, targeting its central bank and giving U.S. banks new powers to freeze assets linked to the government.

Iran two years ago started refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent at Natanz — far more than the 3.5 percent level usually required to power nuclear energy plants.

Tehran says it will use 20 percent-enriched uranium to convert into fuel for a research reactor making isotopes to treat cancer patients, but Western officials say they doubt that the country has the technical capability to do that.

In addition, they say, Fordow’s capacity — a maximum of 3,000 centrifuges — is too small to produce the fuel needed for nuclear power plants, but ideal for yielding smaller amounts of high-enriched product typical of a nuclear weapons program.

Nuclear bombs require uranium enriched to 90 percent, but Western experts say much of the effort required to get there is already achieved once it reaches 20 percent purity, shortening the time needed for any nuclear weapons “break-out”.

They give different estimates of how quickly Iran could assemble a nuclear weapon — ranging from as little as six months to a year or more.

Western officials believe Iran has not yet decided whether it will indeed “weaponize’ enrichment, but rather is seeking now solely to establish the industrial and scientific capacity to do so if needed for military and security contingencies.

Iran disclosed the existence of Fordow to the IAEA only in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected it.

Major drill

With beach landings, 25 naval ships and an air assault, the United States and eight other countries are staging a major amphibious exercise on the U.S. East Coast this week, fighting a fictional enemy that bears more than a passing resemblance to Iran, according to AFP.

After a decade dominated by ground wars against insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, the drill dubbed Bold Alligator is “the largest amphibious exercise conducted by the fleet in the last 10 years,” said Admiral John Harvey, head of U.S. Fleet Forces Command.

About 20,000 U.S. forces, plus hundreds of British, Dutch and French troops as well as liaison officers from Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Australia are taking part in the exercise along the Atlantic coast off Virginia and North Carolina.

An American aircraft carrier, amphibious assault ships including France’s Mistral, Canadian mine sweepers and dozens of aircraft have been deployed for the drill, which began on Jan. 30 and runs through mid-February.

Monday was “D-day” for Bold Alligator, with U.S. Marines stepping on to the beach from hovercraft, near the Camp Lejeune base in North Carolina.

The American military, mindful that Marines have spent most of their time in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan since 2001, said the goal was “to revitalize, refine, and strengthen fundamental amphibious capabilities and reinforce the Navy and Marine Corps role as ‘fighters from the sea.’”

With defense spending coming under pressure after years of unlimited growth, the Marines — which devoted a brigade to the exercise — also are anxious to protect funding for their traditional role as an amphibious force.

Treasure Coast

The exercise scenario takes place in a mythical region known as “Treasure Coast,” with a country called Garnet, a theocracy, invading its neighbor to the north, Amberland, which calls for international help to repel the attack.

Garnet has mined several harbors and deployed anti-ship missiles along the coast.

The threat of mines, anti-ship missiles and small boats in coastal waters conjure up Iran’s naval forces, but the commanders overseeing the drill, Admiral Harvey and Marine Lieutenant General Dennis Hejlik, say the scenario is not based on any particular country.

Amid rising tensions with Iran and threats from Tehran to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, naval officers and military planners are keenly aware of the Islamic Republic’s arsenal of mines and anti-ship missiles.

When asked by reporters last week, Harvey acknowledged that the exercise scenario was “certainly informed by recent history” and that it was “applicable” to the Strait of Hormuz, as well as other areas.

Harvey also said the exercise incorporated lessons from the 2006 Lebanon conflict, when Iran-backed Hezbollah forces hit an Israeli navy corvette with an anti-ship missile.

The Pentagon opened the drill to allied forces for the first time this year, with 650 French troops among those participating.

In their AMX-10 wheeled reconnaissance vehicles and VAB armored personnel carriers, the mission of the French forces was “to land first to secure a path for the Americans,” said Second Lieutenant Chens Bouriche, a French military spokesman.

We have lift-off

February 7, 2012

We have lift-off | Jerusalem Post – Blogs.

(While dealing with the Iranian threat, Israel continues to develop and thrive. – JW )
Last week I proclaimed Israel’s “super-power” status, as its technological developments reached new heights. And, this week I can report that the atmospheric rise of the Jewish State continues.
Following the success of Israel’s satellite developments, Minister of Finance Yuval Steinitz and Minister of Science and Technology Prof. Daniel Hershkovitz have agreed on a huge rise in Israel’s investment in space technologies. The Jewish state will invest 165 million shekels in the space program in the next two years – up from about 10 million shekels for the previous two-year period. In another major project, with the situation in Egypt deteriorating, both India and China are now looking at Israel’s new high-speed freight route between Eilat and Ashdod as an alternative to the Suez Canal and a major trade link between Asia and Europe.
Israeli computer experts, engineers and scientists are now in great demand – thanks to the huge investment by foreign hi-tech companies in Israel. 46 percent of all companies here are multinational ones, compared to only 5% in Japan. Apple recently announced a new R&D centre here, following in the footsteps of Google, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Texas Instruments and others. Israel is truly the land of opportunity where Israelis can succeed, despite harsh backgrounds. No wonder that, after months of pessimism, Israel’s Consumer Confidence Index rose by 5.3 points in January.
Despite criticism of our education system, a report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development indicates that Israel is one of the world’s most educated countries. The OECD study shows that Israel ranks second in percentage of population with post-secondary degrees, with 45% of Israelis completing university degrees. Israel ranks ahead of countries such as Japan (44%), the US (41%), the UK (37%) and only lags behind Canada (50%).
Is it any surprise, therefore, that our film industry has taken off? Four Oscar nominations in five years have catapulted Israel from a cinema embarrassment to a powerhouse player. I’ll keep the news from our scientists and innovators until later in the week. But you should know that Israel’s bakers are the top crust. An Israeli team of bakers won two first-place awards at the International Baking Championships held in Rimini.
Other successful “launches” last week included Israel’s election to a United Nations board. History was made when Israel took a seat on the executive board of the UN Development Program. The UNDP’s one billion dollar budget supports health, welfare and women empowerment projects in 177 countries. Israel’s technological and agricultural know-how is a key resource. Then Air France announced that it would start a new three-times-a-week service to Tel Aviv from Nice. Finally, “the Eagle has landed” in the form of American Eagle Outfitters Inc., which has opened the first of eleven new stores during February.
So what other top news stories can we see from the dizzy heights of the Jewish State?   How about the plans for Israel’s tallest building? Tel Aviv’s Planning and Building Commission has approved a plan to build Israel’s highest skyscraper. Eurocom Global Real Estate is to build a 70-storey skyscraper in Givatayim. We also had a record-breaking art auction. The first part of a two-part sale of Israeli and international art, held at Tiroche Auction House in Tel Aviv broke a house record with sales worth NIS 3.35 million. And from the political world, I personally liked the news of the high regard that Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim gave to the Jewish State when asked whether he would open diplomatic ties with Israel.

Syria’s future in Russia’s hands

February 7, 2012

On My Mind: Syria’s future in Rus… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

 

By KENNETH BANDLER 02/06/2012 22:03
It turns out Moscow, as well as Beijing, was playing same game as Assad, ignoring the will of the int’l community to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Syrian demonstrate against Assad By REUTERS

Protesters at Syrian embassies in European and Arab capitals, after the weekend showdown at the UN Security Council, missed the mark. The Russian embassy would have been the more appropriate place to show their outrage.

Saturday’s vote was the closest the UN has come to taking meaningful action against the bloodthirsty Syrian regime. While the resolution passed overwhelmingly, 13 to 2, the two opposed, China and Russia, exercised their veto power as promised. It was a repeat of what happened in October, when the same dual veto dashed the hopes of the Syrian people for international support to end President Bashar Assad’s crackdown.

What was new this time was that Arab countries were urging Security Council action. The Arab League lost all patience with Assad months ago. Arab leaders warned him repeatedly to end his campaign of violence against his own people.

Assad’s unresponsiveness earned him a series of rebukes from the Arab League, which expelled Syria as a member, imposed sanctions, and adopted a plan – which Assad initially accepted in early November – that would have him withdraw his troops from Syrian cities and then step down as president.

For the Arab League, the final straw prompting its appeal for UN action was the regime’s murder of hundreds more even while the league’s human rights monitors were visiting Syria.

Adding to the painful frustration, it took most of last week to reach the shameful outcome.

From the beginning of deliberations on the resolution introduced by Morocco, the only Arab country on the Security Council, Moscow defiantly warned against any attempt to take any action against Assad.

According to Reuters, Assad was dining calmly at a popular Damascus restaurant a week before the Security Council vote. He is apparently unmoved by the carnage his regime has wrought across the country, which in recent days had reached the suburbs of Damascus.

Russia, Assad’s staunchest ally, has been similarly unmoved by the endless ferocity of the Assad regime, which decided to launch a merciless assault on Homs, Syria’s third largest city, precisely as the Security Council got ready to vote on a watered-down version of the resolution.

Concessions to Russia intended to secure its affirmative vote included removing references to Assad giving up power, an arms embargo and sanctions. The revised version, negotiated between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as the death toll in Homs rose to more than 250, eviscerated the Arab League recommendations.

It turns out that Moscow, as well as Beijing, was playing the same game as Assad, ignoring the will of the international community to resolve the Syrian crisis. Russia stood firm in opposing what it, and Assad, view as outside interference. Let the “Syrians decide themselves,” Lavrov declared. But in Assad’s view, there is only one Syrian decider, himself.

Despite Russia’s appearance of openness to negotiating the terms of a UN resolution, it has never wavered in its unconditional support for Assad. Fouad Ajami, writing in The Wall Street Journal, calls the Syrian crisis “the last battle of the Cold War.” Syria is critical to Russian interests. For one thing, Tartus is home to the only Russian naval base outside the FSU. “The base is derelict, but it is better than nothing,” says Ajami. And while Syria never will pay for the massive amounts of Russian arms it receives, the uninterrupted supply both deepens the treacherous relationship and emboldens Assad’s forces.

What will be written, in just another month, on the first anniversary of the Syrian uprising? Will the most deadly and destructive so far of any of the upheavals across the Arab world finally be over? Or will Assad enjoy many more fine dining experiences as the death toll rises far above 6,000, with no end in sight? Moscow holds the golden key. All eyes will focus on the visit this week of Foreign Minister Lavrov to Damascus. Assad and Lavrov have together so far ignored the US, EU, Arab League and the UN secretary-general, all of whom pursued a UN Security Council resolution to press for an end to the Syrian regime’s brutality.

Syrian protesters, deeply disappointed with Russia’s posture, are not holding their breath.

Neither, for sure, are the 13 countries that voted in favor of the vetoed Security Council resolution, or the many other governments that have supported measures against Assad.

What Lavrov tells Assad, and what Moscow does afterward, will largely determine the direction of this tragedy.

The writer is the American Jewish Committee’s director of media relations.

Too confrontational on Iran?

February 7, 2012

Too confrontational on Iran? – JPost – Opinion – Op-Eds.

By EMILY B.LANDAU 02/06/2012 22:49
In the face of growing impatience with Iran’s stalling tactics, Obama insisted on giving the Islamic regime space and time to come to the table.

US President Barack Obama By REUTERS/Larry Downing

Arguing that US President Barack Obama has been too confrontational in dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions would seem to fly in the face of reality. After all, this is the president who came into office and insisted on doing away with the precondition that Iran suspend uranium enrichment before talks commence.

This is the president that, in a clear break with his predecessor, offered Iran his outstretched hand, if Iran would only unclench its fist. Indeed, this is the president that offered unconditional diplomacy to Iran, against the better counsel of many.

Could it be that this president is now deemed too confrontational? Criticized for being too quick to move to harsh sanctions? Strangely enough, this is precisely the argument that some Iran watchers are currently attempting to advance. They claim that Obama gave up on diplomacy too soon; not only that, but he rejected the fuel deal that Turkey and Brazil were able to conclude with Iran – a so-called “confidence-building measure” that they criticize Obama for dismissing because he was too bent on setting sanctions in motion.

The truth is that Obama’s approach to Iran has unfolded in the context of his own experience of dealing with Iran, as well as against the backdrop of lessons that had already been learned from previous attempts to negotiate. If Obama has lately become much tougher on Iran, it is most likely because he has come to the conclusion that there is no other way to effectively deal with this determined proliferator.

Obama started out by assuming a controversial position. Although the international community had been confronting an intransigent Iranian nuclear policy, Obama spent the entire first year of his presidency advancing his diplomatic agenda, not deterred even by the regime’s brutal repression of popular protests that erupted all over the country in the wake of the fraudulent presidential elections in June 2009. In the face of these developments, and growing impatience with Iran’s stalling tactics in some quarters, Obama nevertheless insisted on giving the Islamic regime space and time to come to the table.

Over the summer of 2009 an opportunity presented itself to test whether Iran had finally decided to negotiate seriously with the international community. It hinged on Iran’s request for 20 percent enriched uranium fuel for its Tehran Research Reactor, which the US saw as an opportunity to significantly reduce Iran’s growing stockpile of low enriched uranium.

The contours of the fuel deal offered to Iran in October 2009 were that 1,200 kg. of low enriched uranium (about 75 percent of Iran’s stockpile at the time) would be shipped first to Russia to be enriched to 20% and then on to France to be turned into fuel for the small research reactor. Iran would get its fuel, and the international community would get a breather. A seemingly win-win situation. But after stalling for several months, Iran finally came back with its answer – it rejected the deal. In a further act of brazen defiance, in February 2010, Iran itself began enriching uranium to 20%.

What the Obama administration learned was that not only was Iran not interested in building confidence, it was obviating any basis for confidence by initiating 20% enrichment.

Obama concluded that it was high time to move to the harsher measures that he had warned would be implemented if Iran remained obstinate, and he got to work convincing Russia and China to come on board. In May 2010, just as he was on the verge of introducing a proposal for a fourth round of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions, with Russian and Chinese backing, Turkey and Brazil announced that they had brokered a new fuel deal with Iran.

In recent commentary, Trita Parsi, a US-based Iran observer, praises this deal as the product of the superior negotiations techniques of Turkey and Brazil. He laments Obama’s rejection of what he describes as a version of the fuel swap that Obama had sought, in favor of a stubborn march to sanctions. The problem with this argument is that the Brazil-Turkey-Iran deal was not a confidence-building measure – it was simply a bad deal.

Among its problems was that it mentioned absolute numbers (1,200 kg. of low enriched uranium) which by May constituted only 50% of Iran’s stock. More importantly, however, the very first clause of the 10-clause deal openly granted legitimacy to Iran’s enrichment activities on the basis of its NPT rights. Absolutely no mention was made of the fact that the UNSC had already passed several resolutions that deemed otherwise. And having begun to enrich to 20% several months earlier, this was included in Iran’s so-called legitimate enrichment.

Not something that would inspire confidence.

Obama did not reject the deal due to his being set on sanctions; on the contrary, it was the fuel deal trio that sought to undermine US determination to pursue legitimate sanctions, by quickly pushing forward a lousy deal.

Dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been an almost decade-long process, and by the time Obama became president, the lessons of Iran’s negotiations techniques had already been learned. While Obama was determined to negotiate, he quickly found himself in the clutches of Iran’s familiar delay tactics. He failed to find a serious partner for negotiations to get Iran to back away from its military ambitions in the nuclear realm. Instead he found Iran determined to advance to its goal, and stubbornly moving forward. Under these circumstances Obama’s move to a much tougher stance in facing Iran was the correct policy, testimony to his experience.

The writer is the director of the Arms Control Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Tel Aviv University. She is author of Decade of Diplomacy: Negotiations with Iran and North Korea and the Future of Nuclear Non- Proliferation (forthcoming, 2012).

BBC News – Syrian crisis: Homs army assault continues

February 7, 2012

BBC News – Syrian crisis: Homs army assault continues.

Wreckage from fighting in Khaldiyeh area in Homs. 4 Feb 2012
Parts of Homs are strewn with rubble and wreckage from the fighting

The Syrian army has resumed heavy shelling in the restive city of Homs as Russia’s foreign minister is due in Damascus for talks.

Hundreds of people are reported to have been killed since government troops began pounding known strongholds of opposition groups.

The BBC’s Paul Wood, in Homs, says residents fear troops are planning to launch a ground assault.

President Bashar al-Assad is trying to face down a months-long uprising.

Our correspondent says the Syrian army started firing mortars at about 06:00 local time (04:00 GMT). There has been fairly heavy fire, he adds.

Russia, along with China, has faced international condemnation after vetoing a UN resolution that backed an Arab League peace plan for Syria.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, due to hold talks with Syrian leaders, said Western reaction to Moscow’s veto had bordered on “hysteria”.

His office said he was heading to Damascus because Moscow sought “the swiftest stabilisation of the situation in Syria”.

US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said: “Our hope and expectation is that foreign minister Lavrov will use this opportunity to make absolutely clear to the Assad regime how isolated it is and to encourage Assad and his people to make use of the Arab League plan and provide for a transition.”

Our correspondent – one of the few foreign reporters in Homs – says that as night fell in the city, government forces continued to fire shells into residential areas.

He said residents were burying their dead in mass graves under the cover of darkness, but were still coming under fire.

Unconfirmed reports said troops had been moved up to within 1km (0.6 miles) of the parts of the city under bombardment, increasing fears of a ground attack, he adds.

Syrian authorities deny firing on houses and say security forces killed “tens of terrorists” in Homs on Monday.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the escalating violence in Syria “totally unacceptable before humanity”, his spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

He urged “all concerned in Syria” and the international community to redouble efforts to try to stop the violence.

The US said on Monday it had closed its embassy in Damascus and removed all remaining staff because of security concerns.

German UN Ambassador Peter Wittig said supporters of the Arab League plan – which calls for President Assad to step down – needed to explore ways forward.

He said Berlin was proposing an international contact group that he described as “a broad-based coalition of friends of the Arab League and friends of Syria above all”.

“Our fears have come true,” he said. “Assad used the situation once again as a licence to kill – that’s the sad aftermath of the veto.”

The Syrian government says it is fighting foreign-backed armed groups.

Thousands of former army soldiers have defected to the rebel side, forming the Free Syrian Army.

Human rights groups and activists say more than 7,000 people have been killed by Syrian security forces since the uprising began last March.

The UN stopped estimating the death toll in Syria after it passed 5,400 in January, saying it was too difficult to confirm.

President Assad’s government says at least 2,000 members of the security forces have been killed.

Syrians trawl through hacked emails of Bashar’s presidential aides | FP

February 7, 2012

Syrians trawl through hacked emails of Bashar’s presidential aides | FP Passport.

Move over, WikiLeaks: There’s a new sheriff in town.

The shadowy hacker collective Anonymous struck again late Sunday evening, exposing the email accounts of top aides to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and posting the passwords online for all to see (most of them were — literally — “12345”).

Expatriate Syrians pounced, gleefully delving through this treasure trove and pulling out newsworthy gems (some even joked about sending replies from the accounts, for example, “Curse your soul, Hafez”). There were few smoking guns, but one email, from U.N.-based press aide Sheherazad Jaafari to Damascus-based press aide Luna Chebel, was particularly interesting. It advises the presidential office on how to best handle Assad’s Dec. 7 interview with ABC’s Barbara Walters. If this is the quality of staff work Bashar al-Assad is getting… well, it explains a lot:

Hello dear,

Please let me know if you need anything else.
Barbara will be here on the 2nd and the interview will be on the 4th because she is leaving on the 6th so that would give you some time to do the editing.

Thank you.

After doing a major research on the American Media’s coverage on the Syrian issue and the American Society’s perspective of what is happening on the Syrian ground, I have concluded some important points that might be helpful for the preparation of the upcoming interview with Barbara Walters.

I based my research on online articles written about the Syrian issue, my personal contacts with the American journalists, my father and Syrian expatriates in the States.

The Major points and dimensions that has been mentioned a lot in the American media are:

The Violence:
* The idea of violence has been one of the major subjects brought up in every article. They use the phrases “the Syrian government is killing its own people”, “Tanks have been used in many cities”, “airplanes have been used to suppress the peaceful demonstrations” and “Security forces are criminals and bloody”.

Bloodshed:
· Bloodshed is another subject brought up in the American media. There is no mention of how many “soldiers and security forces have been killed”. They think that bloodshed is done by the government to attack the “innocent civilians” and “peaceful demonstrators”. Mentioning “armed groups” in the interview is extremely important and we can use “American and British articles” to prove that there are “armed gangs”.

Reform:
· The American audience doesn’t really care about reforms. They won’t understand it and they are not interested to do so. Thus, a brief mention of the reforms done in the past couple of months is more than enough.
· It is very important to mention the huge economical and political transformation that Syria has gone through in the last 11 years. Somehow, there needs to be a clarification that reform started since H.E took the office.

Mistakes:
· It is hugely important and worth mentioning that “mistakes” have been done in the beginning of the crises because we did not have a well-organized “police force”. American Psyche can be easily manipulated when they hear that there are “mistakes” done and now we are “fixing it”. Its worth mentioning also what is happening now in Wall Street and the way the demonstrations are been suppressed by police men, police dogs and beatings.

Torture Policy:
“Syria doesn’t have a policy to torture people” unlike the USA, where there are courses and schools that specializes in teaching police men and officers how to torture criminals and “outlaws”. For instace, “the electric chair and killing through injecting an overdose amount of medicine”…etc.
*We can use Abu Ghraib in Iraq as an example.

The Comments:
· The comments that follow any article in the American Media are a very important tool to use in the interview. The Americans now believe that their government has failed two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are asking their government to stop interfering in other countries businesses and sovereignty and to start taking care of the American internal issues.

Obama popularity’s decline and incline through the past 3 years:
· It is worth mentioning that when Obama asked H.E to step down he himself have had a 70% decrease of his popularity in the States.
· It would be worth mentioning how your personality has been attacked and praised in the last decade according to the media. At one point H.E was viewed as a hero and in other times H.E was the “bad guy”. Americans love these kinds of things and get convinced by it.

Facebook and You tube:
This is very important to the American mindset. The fact that Facebook and youtube are open now-especially during the crises- is important.

The International media:
· We should mention that in the first month the international media was allowed in Syria. Both al Jazeera and al Arabia’s offices were open but when they started to manipulate what is happening and “make up facts”, the Syrian government became more cautious about who will enter the country.

10) Civil war in Syria and the neighboring countries:
We can use Noland and Hillary’s statements encouraging armed groups to not give up their weapons as a “clear” way of asking for a civil war in Syria.

11) The opposition:
* a brief mention of the opposition “figures”. Syria doesn’t have an opposition leader with a “ready” agenda; they are all from the previous generation. The opposition was asked to meet by the Syrian government but most of them refused to attend.

Key Points:
The government’s crackdown, the bloody regime, civil war, security forces and violence, Tanks, you tube torture clips, Pres. Assad IGNORES the bloodshed and the “help” of other countries and the Arab League”, Army defectors, Robert Fords return to the US for “Security reasons”, Syria is an authoritarian government.

The Broadcasting hours and channels:
· The interview will be broadcast across ABC News platforms – including World News, Good Morning America, This Week, ABC Radio, a full edition of Nightline, and full-length treatment across the digital space (for ABC News this now includes Yahoo as well – which means you can reach as many as 100 million people. ABC News and Yahoo recently joined forces – which is another reason why so many people now bring their interviews to us).

The exact dates/times for all these broadcasts depends on when the interview is done.

This is all ABC News – every platform. The entire interview would run on ABC News Digital; “Nightline” will devote an entire broadcast; “World News” at least one night, maybe two; “Good Morning America” a segment; “This Week” a segment. And so on.

Syria: Assad Secret Memos Reveal Tactics On Dealing With Press; Barbara Walters

February 7, 2012

Syria: Assad Secret Memos Reveal Tactics On Dealing With Press; Barbara Walters | World News | Sky News.

(ANONYMOUS !  Protector of the people!  All the honor…. – JW )

Anonymous Hackers

Private messages between the president and his advisers have been revealed by hacking group Anonymous.

The Syrian government’s computer system has reportedly been hacked, to reveal private memos, documents and emails apparently advising President Bashar al Assad on how to tackle reactions to his crackdown on protesters.

Hacking group Anonymous claim the documents show how advisers close to the president offer their thoughts on how he should deal with questions from the press amid the government’s on-going military campaign.

One email appears to advise Assad on how to approach his interview with ABC’s Barbara Walters, who spoke to the leader late last year.

“Mentioning ‘armed groups’ in the interview is extremely important and we can use American and British articles to prove there are armed gangs,” the adviser writes.

The president was also advised to mention the way protests are sometimes handled in western countries, adding that “Syria doesn’t have a policy to torture people, unlike the USA… We can use Abu Ghraib in Iraq as an example”.

Sky’s foreign affairs editor Tim Marshal said of the hacking: “The translations of the emails from Arabic to English do not prove that they are what the hackers say, but it would have taken a solid knowledge of how the Syrian government and political public relations works to make them up,” he said.

“The emails are not particularly damaging to the Syrian government, which would mean if forged someone has gone to a lot of effort for little gain.

“This suggests they are real, and while not devastating, they throw some light on the government’s thinking.”

An email goes on to explain that admitting to errors committed early on may be a good way of shaping public opinion.

“American psyche can be easily manipulated when they hear that there are ‘mistakes’ done and now we are ‘fixing it,'” the email says.

Continuing to generalise about western thought processes, the adviser says Facebook and YouTube are “open now” and that these things are “very important to the American mind-set”.

The adviser continues: “It would be worth mentioning how your personality has been attacked and praised in the last decade according to the media,” adding that he should make more of the “hero” and “bad guy” images because “Americans love these kinds of things and get convinced by it”.

Another memo appeared to uncover the identity of a suspected defected diplomat who had recently given an anonymous interview to a western reporter.

The hacking by Anonymous is the latest in a number of high-profile attempts by them at revealing classified information. Earlier this month hackers from the same group intercepted FBI calls with Scotland Yard.

President Assad’s crackdown started almost a year ago, and this weekend saw operations intensify in the city of Homs, where Sky correspondent Stuart Ramsey is with activists.