Archive for February 6, 2012

Israel strengthens nuclear deterrent against Iran with fleet of German subs

February 6, 2012

Blog: Israel strengthens nuclear deterrent against Iran with fleet of German subs.

Leo Rennert

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Israel has signed a contract with Germany for a sixth Dolphin-class submarine capable of being outfitted with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, according to the Jerusalem Post.

The Israeli Navy already fields three operational Dolphin subs.  Another two are scheduled for delivery later this year. A sixth one will help strengthen Israel’s nuclear deterrent vis a vis Iran. 

In strategic-arms parlance, this gives Israel a second-strike capability.  The  Dolphin subs effectively would be immune to a first-strike Iranian attack, leaving them available for nuclear retaliation.   Theoretically, the German subs thus might stay the mullahs’ hands from assured atomic devastation of their own country.

Nuclear deterrence worked during the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow faced mutual assured destruction (MAD) should either have contemplated a first-strike nuclear attack on the other.  But would it work this time with theocratic, fanatical zealots with their fingers on Iran’s nuclear buttons?

During the Cold War, neither side wanted to annihilate the other.  This time, however, Iranian leaders deem elimination of the Jewish state an overriding objective.  As Ali Rafsanjani, a former president of Iran and head of a powerful mullahs’ oversight panel, famously remarked: One Iranian nuke would be sufficient to destroy Israel, with minimal collateral damage to Muslims.

The bottom line is that nobody knows for sure if nuclear deterrence would work again. Which is why preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power is the pre-eminent moral imperative of our age. An exchange of nuclear attacks would be a global catastrophe affecting all of mankind.

In the meantime, Israel is prepared for any and all existential threats – acting where feasible in concert with the international community but, if necessary, on its own.  Its growing Dolphin fleet is a timely reminder of what’s at stake.  Containment might not work the second time around.

Leo Rennert is a former White House correspondent and Washington bureau chief of McClatchy Newspapers

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/02/israel_strengthens_nuclear_deterrent_against_iran_with_fleet_of_german_subs.html#ixzz1lazLrOis

American Jews, Seize the Day!

February 6, 2012

American Jews, Seize the Day! – Op-Eds – Israel National News.

Published: Monday, February 06, 2012 10:05 AM
Stopping the Iranian madmen is not Israel’s responsibility – it is America’s as the Defender of the Free World. If Israel moves, she will become the scapegoat for any conflict that results. Where is US Jewry?
Iran is on the verge of securing a nuclear terrorist state and President Obama is stalling.  Stopping the Iranian madmen is not Israel’s responsibility – it is America’s as the Defender of the Free World.Jews in America, it is our obligation as citizens to demand that Obama end the impending global threat posed by Iran. If we, American Jews, declare our support for Israel’s right to attack Iran, we will be absolving him of his duty to defend our Constitution from enemies foreign and domestic.

Once he does that, Israel becomes the scapegoat, because any steps Israel takes to defend her nation against Iran will appear as though she, not Iran, will have instigated a global conflict.

Yet not one Jewish organization points out this fact or demands that America not Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure now.

Israel has been treated like the dregs of the Earth because, for more than 60 years, not one Jewish group or organization ever stood up to Congress and said, “How dare you force the people of Israel to negotiate with terrorists?” This is the great stain and shame on American Jewry. Because of our complacency and neglect in supporting Israel, she is now surrounded on all sides by her enemies and facing a nuclear holocaust.

Our job in America is to take the boot forcefully from Israel’s neck, but we didn’t do it. We failed to stand firmly against one President after another who believes that America would achieve peace and financial security with the Islamic world that strives to annihilate Israel.

What a betrayal to America’s core values! And American Jewry said nothing!

Ahmadinejad is now constructing chambers of death where nuclear bombs will replace Zyklon B to finish Hitler’s work in their hell on earth. How dare any nation, especially Germany and France, say we should not immediately demand the destruction of Iran’s nuclear war machine – but even my fellow-American Jews don’t demand it. How dare they speak of their love for Israel and remain silent?   It’s time we take a firm stand!

I call on all American-Jewish leadership to create a firestorm so that all Jews from the national Jewish community call Congress, demanding they end the sanctions and take action against Iran now. While we must be polite and firm, we must not be deterred.  Hound your representatives daily as though it were Israel’s last day on earth.

I’ve been warned numerous times, “Don’t push this agenda.  It might upset our Congressional representatives who now support Israel.  Don’t push them too far.”  Is this what Emma Lazarus had in mind when she composed, ?Give me your tired, your poor,” that immigrants who left their oppressive homelands for the new world might once again live in fear in America?

More specifically, that an American citizen of Jewish descent would dread abandonment by a Congressional representative because we dared to criticize proposals that do not go far enough to secure Israel’s safety. Why is it that the Jewish people, victims of hatred and terrorism, feel we must hold our tongue when we are being short-changed, and be grateful for whatever favors we’ve been granted?

The Jewish Federations and religious leaders who represent us have adopted the same victim mentality that delivered our brethren directly into the gas chambers of World War II. Now, as in the past, these same groups hold in contempt those Jews who demand unrestricted action against those who planning our extermination. As if that were not enough, we now have new heirs to the thrones of leadership who say, “Wait until 2013,” but offer no positive hope or direction to overcome this Iranian threat.

If we are to survive this final worldwide onslaught against the Jewish people, American Jews must reject the mindset of compliance that made us victims in every nation and every generation. The time has come to demand for ourselves what every other American takes for granted since the birth of our nation – that we have the right to be fearless, bold, boisterous when calling our leaders to account when dealing with Iran.

As American citizens, we can be rightly proud of Nathan Hale who said, “Give me Liberty, or give me death.”

We need our own American Natan Halevy! – someone who has the courage to declare publicly, risking his life and his fortune, that the policies that the President of the United States is pursuing are leading to the destruction of the Jewish state and the persecution of the Jews worldwide.

He must be stopped.

Stanley Zir, Never Again is Now
Stanley Zir is founder of Never Again is Now and Victorious America.com, “dedicated to the completion of America’s destiny… in fulfilling Liberty’s mandate: ‘Our Eternal War on Tyranny’….”

Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran

February 6, 2012

Panetta Predicts an Israeli Strike on Iran » Publications » Family Security Matters.

It’s not every day that someone like the U.S. secretary of defense forecasts an ally’s move but this just happened when Leon Panetta said that he believes, in the paraphrase of a Washington Post reporter, that “there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June.” Thoughts on this unusual statement:
It’s a paraphrase: For delicate statements, top officials prefer indirection and written words. It offers wiggle room and reduces tensions. Asked whether he disputed the Post report, Panetta inscrutably stated: “No, I’m just not commenting. What I think and what I view, I consider that to be an area that belongs to me and nobody else.” (Contrast this episode with Barack Obama talking about drones in front of the cameras, an indiscretion that won him trouble, including a lawsuit from the ACLU.)
It might be disinformation: In the mirror world of nuclear diplomacy, we on the outside have almost no way of discerning wheat from chaff. Panetta could be sending a signal to Tehran as opposed to telling the truth. The same applies to other news, be it assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists or sales of ordnance to Israel. Wait a decade to learn what’s really happening now.
Tehran is determined: Iran’s supreme guide, Ali Khamene’i, again confirmed that nothing and no one will impede his regime from acquiring nuclear weapons, announcing that “Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course.” I believe him. Just as the North Korean regime allowed its subject population to starve in the pursuit of nukes, so will the Iranians pay whatever the price.
Israel is also determined: The Israeli leadership looks back to the Holocaust and feels the weight of its responsibility. Commenting on those top-ranking military personnel who disagree with him and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about the Iranian nuclear danger, Israel’s Minister of Defense Ehud Barak commented that “It’s good to have diversity in thinking and for people to voice their opinions. But at the end of the day, when the military command looks up, it sees us — the minister of defense and the prime minister. When we look up, we see nothing but the sky above us.”
U.S. presidential elections: Were the Israelis to attack Iran, Obama’s response could have major electoral implications. Were he to approve or (especially) join in the attack, he would scramble the elections to his advantage. Were he to condemn the Israelis, however, he would likely pay a price. (February 4, 2012)
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributor Daniel Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum, Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, and a contributor to FrontPageMagazine.com, and also the National Review Online. His blog can be read here.

2012: Iran’s Plan to Take Human Life and Israel’s Plan to Preserve It

February 6, 2012

2012: Iran’s Plan to Take Human Life and Israel’s Plan to Preserve It » Publications » Family Security Matters.

As the West continues to pressure Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program to develop nuclear weapons, Tehran refuses to do so, assuring the outside world its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. 
For those wishing to believe Iran, they should take little comfort from such assurances. An analysis of its leadership’s words and actions over the past several years are bone chilling indicators what a nuclear armed Iran plans for our future.
For those unconvinced as to Iran’s evil intentions, they should reflect on that leadership’s words over the past several years including, more recently, the following:
          Threats to use military force to close the Straits of Hormuz for the West’s non-military act of imposing economic sanctions upon Tehran.
          The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s declaration, “The Zionist regime is a true cancer tumor on this region that should be cut off and it definitely will be cut off.” 
          Threats against the US Navy should its carriers return to the Persian Gulf.
For those still unconvinced as to the leadership’s evil intentions, choosing to dismiss such threats as mere bravissimo, they should reflect upon Tehran’s actual and attempted acts of violence including:
          Its failed attempt to assassinate the Saudi and Israeli ambassadors in the US.
          Its track record of aggression against the US ever since the mullahs came to power in 1979 including the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran; its bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut; its bombing of Khobar Towers where US military personnel were housed in Saudi Arabia; its establishment of the terrorist proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon; its establishment of a Hezbollah base in Venezuela from where terrorists have linked up with the Mexican drug cartels to penetrate US borders; its providing IEDs to Iraqi and Afghani militants that have been responsible for more than half the US casualties in those conflicts; its deployment of its special forces, known as “Qods,” to effect further US casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan—such as the 2007 kidnapping and execution of five US soldiers during a raid of the Karbala, Iraq, provincial headquarters; its deployment of Qods to Syria in an effort to prop up Iran’s ally, President Bashar Assad, by killing and torturing anti-government demonstrators there; etc.
For those still unconvinced as to the leadership’s evil intentions and who may be taking encouragement from Tehran’s recent resumption of nuclear talks, they should reflect upon the following:
          Such talks have consistently been used by Iran as a delay tactic, giving the West hope of conflict avoidance while giving Iran time to continue the pursuit of its nuclear armament goal.
          Despite these on-again/off-again talks, they have yet to produce from Tehran simple basics such as a plausible explanation for projects appearing to be related to nuclear warhead design.
          When such talks have failed to produce any substantive result, Tehran has sought to create a crisis to take the focus off its program. Such crises have included the arrest and prosecution of innocent US citizens as spies. (The extent to which Iran goes to create a crisis was evidenced by its 2007 seizure of fifteen British Royal Marines patrolling the Shatt-al-Arab waterway when they were seized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces for allegedly straying into Iranian waters. The coordinates Iran gave as to where the Brits were seized supported the British government’s claim its Marines were not in Iranian waters. Recognizing its error, Tehran immediately changed the coordinates, using a new set that plotted within its territorial waters.) 
For those still unconvinced as to the leadership’s evil intentions, they should reflect upon what Tehran does have in store for its enemies as set forth in a documentary Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad released last year in Iran to explain our fate to his followers. 
          Iran’s leadership adheres to the religious concept of the return of the 12th Imam, or “Mahdi,” who disappeared in the ninth century, entered into a state of occultation and is destined to return in the future to restore Islam to greatness, creating a world where non-believers convert or die. (Ahmadinejad’s sincere belief Mahdi is soon to return is evidenced by his tenure as Tehran’s mayor before becoming president as he ordered the widening of boulevards there so throngs of Iranians can fill the streets to receive the 12th Imam.)
          Belief has it that Mahdi’s return will only occur in the wake of world chaos—a world in which he will then restore order. While most Shiites believe that chaos should evolve naturally, a very small minority believes man can be a catalyst in creating it. Among these is Ahmadinejad. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that Ahmadinejad seeks to obtain nuclear weapons to fulfill what he believes is his destiny to create the required world chaos to trigger Mahdi’s return. In his documentary, he lays out how he, Ayatollah Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah will be the three critical players in precipitating Mahdi’s return. (Critical in this evolution is a pre-chaos visit by Mahdi to the principals; both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei claim Mahdi has already visited them. Tossing in the belief Mahdi’s return will occur in an even numbered year and Ahmadinejad’s term as president ends in early 2013, it would appear 2012 is shaping up as the year for Ahmadinejad to create the needed world chaos. While this runs contrary to Western intelligence assessments it will take longer for Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon, it would explain Ahmadinejad’s expedited efforts to pick up the pace of uranium enrichment.)  
Anti-Israeli propaganda in Iran.
For those still unconvinced as to the leadership’s evil intentions, and the extent to which its religious zealotry blinds it to the basic dignity and innocence of human life, they should reflect upon Tehran’s actions against its own children during the 1980-1988 Iran/Iraq war.
          As Iraqi defenses deployed minefields which took their tally on Iranian soldiers attempting to penetrate them, Qods’ leaders—such as Tehran’s current President Ahmadinejad—used thousands of innocent Iranian children “volunteers” to race across those minefields, clearing a path for Iranian soldiers to then follow. Iraqi defenders looked on in disbelief as waves of these children charged fearlessly through the minefields, having been guaranteed doing so would win them entry into Heaven. The children were presented with little plastic keys to wear before charging a minefield, being told it would open the gates to Heaven upon their arrival. Most were too young to comprehend the detonated mines not only would vaporize the keys, but their bodies as well. For those old enough to wonder, they were told to wrap themselves in blankets and roll across the minefield as the blanket would hold their bodies together. 
          If Ahmadinejad and the mullahs have no concerns over sacrificing the lives of their own children in this manner, one can only imagine what sacrifice they have in mind for the rest of us.
In 1981, Saddam Hussein’s efforts to build a nuclear reactor were stopped in one of the most daring missions in military history. Israel struck as Hussein vowed his reactor would “neutralize” the Zionist state. The odds of the attack being carried out flawlessly by the eight Israeli pilots and aircraft involved—flying defenseless (the aircraft were stripped of the capability to defend themselves to reduce weight load for a flight covering 1200 miles) through unfriendly airspace, dropping their bombs and returning home safely—were stacked against them. Yet it did go flawlessly and the reactor was destroyed.
Years later the Israeli pilots involved shared their thoughts on the mission. They saw Saddam, as Ahmadinejad is seen today, as a madman who cared nothing about human life. His possession of a nuclear weapon not only posed a threat to Israel but to the entire Jewish race. Fear engulfed the pilots as they departed—not of death but of mission failure. The pressure was on them, one pilot suggested for, as the sons and grandsons of Holocaust victims, they were driven to succeed to preserve the destiny of the Israeli people.
Today, Israel faces another nuclear threat. It recognizes there is only a limited amount of time left before Tehran enters into a “zone of immunity” when its advancements both in hiding its facilities underground and building the two or three nuclear weapons it needs to destroy Israel will be too far along to destroy the program, as was successfully done in Iraq 32 years earlier. 
The challenges facing Israel in 1981 pale in comparison to those it faces today in trying to stop another nuclear threat to its existence for, in Ahmadinejad, Israelis confront a madman just as committed to wreaking global death among mankind in fulfillment of his destiny as they are to preserving human life in fulfillment of theirs.
Family Security Matters Contributing Editor Lt. Colonel James G. Zumwalt, USMC (ret) is a retired Marine infantry officer who served , the US invasion of Panama and the first Gulf war. He is the author of “Bare Feet, Iron Will–Stories from the Other Side of Vietnam’s Battlefields” and frequently writes on foreign policy and defense issues.

Iran Strikes: Are You With or Against Israel?

February 6, 2012

Iran Strikes: Are You With or Against Israel? » Publications » Family Security Matters.

Just days after 9/11 on September 13, 2001, then-Senator Hillary Clinton stated during an interviewon the CBS Evening News with Dan Rather,
“Every nation has to either be with us, or against us. Those who harbor terrorists, or who finance them, are going to pay a price.”
President George W. Bush elaborated those words on September 20, 2001; during an address to a joint session of Congress,
“Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”
President Bush went a little further and in simple terms explained what he meant,
“They want to overthrow existing governments in many Muslim countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. They want to drive Israel out of the Middle East. They want to drive Christians and Jews out of vast regions of Asia and Africa.”
During his State of the Union address on January 29, 2002, Bush named terrorist groups,
“Our military has put the terror training camps of Afghanistan out of business, yet camps still exist in at least a dozen countries. A terrorist underworld — including groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Jaish-i-Mohammed — operates in remote jungles and deserts, and hides in the centers of large cities.”
Three out of four of the groups he named, Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad all have one thing in common. They are all funded, supplied and trained by Iran.
He continued by explaining his expectations and the consequences for those that chose not to be “with us”,
“My hope is that all nations will heed our call, and eliminate the terrorist parasites who threaten their countries and our own. Many nations are acting forcefully.”
“But some governments will be timid in the face of terror. And make no mistake about it: If they do not act, America will.”
George W. Bush gave several goals and spoke of our ‘allies’,
“Our second goal is to prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction.”
He went on to name two countries specifically,
“Some of these regimes have been pretty quiet since September 11, but we know their true nature. North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.”
“Iran aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people’s hope for freedom.”
Once again, Iran continues today as it did then, aggressively pursuing weapons and exporting terror. Bush then coined a phrase for these countries. The “the axis of evil”,
“States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger. They could provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the means to match their hatred. They could attack our allies or attempt to blackmail the United States. In any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic.”
Read that last sentence again, it was stated 10 years ago and it’s not as if Bush was clairvoyant, it was just commonsense. “The price of indifference would be catastrophic.”
Towards the end of his address Bush made it clear what he and more importantly, what America would not permit,
“We’ll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on events while dangers gather. I will not stand by as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world’s most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world’s most destructive weapons.”
There is no longer any option of time and Iran is one of the world’s most dangerous regimes. When Bush made all these points and accusations they were not just words to soothe a country that was in mournin. If that were the case he would have spoken only of Bin Laden and al-Qaeda. Nor were his words campaign rhetoric; he was in his first year of office at the time. 
Now, ten years later, Iran is beyond an axis of evil. What is worse is that they may already even have weapons grade uranium according to Clare Lopez.
On January 19, I interviewed Clare Lopez, a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Clarion Fund and vice president of the Intelligence Summit on my internet radio show ‘America Akbar’. 
Clare Lopez.
Many of you may know of Clare as she often writes for Family Security Matters and other publications. For those who don’t know her, formerly she was a career operations officer with the Central Intelligence Agency, a professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies, Executive Director of the Iran Policy Committee from 2005-2006. She has served as a consultant, intelligence analyst, and researcher for a variety of defense firms.
While discussing Iran’s nuclear aspirations I said that Iran would probably be able to get to ‘weapons grade’ before the year end. Clare’s response was frightening to say the least,
“I’d be extremely surprised if they already have not gotten to weapons grade, I’d be extremely surprised if they don’t already have functioning war heads”.
Last Thursday, David Ignatius of the Washington Post reported in his article “Is Israel preparing to attack Iran?” that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s “biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran over the next few months.” Ignatius has been traveling with Panetta and wrote,
Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the United States could then stop them militarily.
Ignatius has become known for his articles on senior U.S. defense and intelligence officials. It is obvious that he was reporting what he had been told by Panetta in Brussels. In his article he explained that the administration is having intense discussions on the ‘what if’ scenarios,
The Obama administration is conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States: whether Iran would target U.S. ships in the region or try to close the Strait of Hormuz; and what effect the conflict and a likely spike in oil prices would have on the fragile global economy.
So with all the tough talk and sanctions do Obama and Panetta side with our only ally in the Middle East? As explained in the article, that would be a no,
President Obama and Panetta are said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack.
Two weeks ago I explained this as well,
“Even with all the cooperation and training that the U.S. military shares with Israel and visa-versa, this current administration does not want an attack on Iran, especially by Israel.”
But “cautioning Israel” from attacking is a lot different than just not wanting it. I thought Israel was our friend and ally and Iran was the axis of evil. Perhaps they are warning the wrong country. Let’s remember the goal Bush talked about,
“To prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction.”
We have seen over the past three years the way this administration has treated our friend Israel, I have written about it extensively, but this brings a whole new meaning to “either you are with us or against us”.
Just yesterday, Caroline Glick, the Deputy Managing Editor of The Jerusalem Post wrote in her column how “American “friends” like Wexler and Obama play Israel for a fool again and again.”
This telling piece gives many examples of how every time Obama has asked Israel to adhere to his requests promises are not kept and in reality the situation continues to get worse.
Her article is just another example of this administration’s shunning of Israel. This goes far beyond broken promises, as I wrote 2 weeks ago,
This only leaves Israel one way to deal with this threat and if the U.S. will not work with, let alone back them on any type of military intervention, Israel has no choice but to go about it on its own. It’s truly a matter of survival.
There are only 3 possibilities to explain why Panetta would go so far as to give a time line for an Israeli attack.
1.)   Helping Israel by giving a false date knowing full well the timeline and feeding Iran false information.
2.)   Throwing Israel under the bus once again, knowing full well Israel will attack Iran with or without an Obama administration ‘green light’ and giving Iran a heads up.
3.)   Both the U.S. and E.U. sanctions against Iran go in to full effect July 1, 2012. Obama hopes that by naming April, May or June it will put more pressure on Iran to adhere to all requests. Now Iran may not just be facing sanctions, they face a possible attack by Israel.
The first scenario I doubt highly. The U.S. would not help Israel by giving Iran false info unless they planned on standing by Israel’s side and this they have made clear is certainly not the case.
The second scenario seems more likely, it would not be the first time that this administration has thrown an ally under the bus. Last February I wrote about the administration giving highly classified information about the U.K. to Russia after assuring the U.K. they would not,
Information about every Trident missile the US supplies to Britain will be given to Russia as part of an arms control deal signed by President Barack Obama next week.
Defense analysts claim the agreement risks undermining Britain’s policy of refusing to confirm the exact size of its nuclear arsenal.
I believe it is actually a combination of both the second and third scenarios I have given. Obama still would like to resolve this issue without military force but he knows full well that if Israel were to attack Iran it would drag the U.S. in to the confrontation one way or another.
Either U.S. troops in the region would be attacked by Iran as promised by Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or by pressure of the U.S. public to stand by our ally Israel.
By laying out a timeline of an attack Obama hopes Iran may finally bow down to pressure. If not, by giving the actual timeline he has also given Iran information that undermines Israel with the hopes of derailing any plans Israel may have to attack.
But when it comes to Iran we are not dealing with a country that has any desire to sit down and talk let alone give up its nuclear ambitions due to sanctions. Less than a week ago the Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated,
“From now onward, we will support and help any nations, any groups fighting against the Zionist regime across the world, and we are not afraid of declaring this.”
“The Zionist regime is a true cancer tumor on this region that should be cut off,” the supreme leader said. “And it definitely will be cut off.”
This is not just more rhetoric, since the 1979 revolution these leaders have followed through with their threats and the U.S. knows this. As was just reported two days ago in the Examiner,
New York’s Police Commissioner Ray Kelly has increased security at the Israeli consulate, synagogues and other Jewish cultural institutions throughout all five boroughs of the city as a result of Iranian threats against Israel and the Jews.
Besides threats against Israel, Iran continues to accuse the U.S. government of plotting against their regime and warned officials in Washington, DC, that they will retaliate against any threat posed by the U.S. military.
When it comes to counterterrorism there is no better law enforcement agency in the U.S. than the NYPD and they would not be taking these steps if they thought Iran’s threats were just more rhetoric.
But the threats are not only concerning to the U.S., Israel’s top Minister of Home Front Defense is concerned for Israelis as reported just yesterday by Haaretz,
Home Front Defense Minister Matan Vilnai is today expected to call for increased investment to protect Israel’s cities and national infrastructure. Vilnai presents his annual report on the Home Front’s preparedness for emergencies to the cabinet amid reports from the United States that Israel plans to strike Iran before June.
None of us want war, but we only have two obvious choices. We can eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran now or wait until they use it on Israel or the U.S. That’s it, two choices, now or later.
The Defense Minister of Israel, Ehud Barak just said last Thursday,
“Today, unlike the past, there is no question of the unbearable danger a nuclear Iran poses for the future of the Middle East, for the security of Israel and for the security and financial stability of the entire world.”
“He who says ‘later,’ may find that it is too late.”
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Gadi Adelman is a freelance writer and lecturer on the history of terrorism and counterterrorism. He grew up in Israel, studying terrorism and Islam for 35 years after surviving a terrorist bomb in Jerusalem in which 7 children were killed. Since returning to the U. S., Gadi teaches and lectures to law enforcement agencies as well as high schools and colleges. He can be heard every Thursday night at 8PM est. on his own radio show “America Akbar” on Blog Talk Radio. He can be reached through his website gadiadelman.com.

Israel’s profound choice on Iran

February 6, 2012

Israel’s profound choice on Iran | Juneau Empire – Alaska’s Capital City Online Newspaper.

In the end it will come down to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His senior officials will make their cases, but he alone will have to make one of the most critical decisions in Israel’s history: whether to attack Iran’s nuclear program. I do not envy him.

There has been much media speculation lately about possible Israeli military action, largely from those who have never borne the crushing weight of momentous national decisions. Israel has made many controversial decisions over the decades, some mistaken. One thing that cannot be said is that it has taken major military action lightly. Rarely if ever have the stakes been higher.

The debate in Israel over the Iranian nuclear threat is narrow but critical nonetheless. No one in Israel disputes that a nuclear Iran would pose a dire threat to its security and that Israel should go to great lengths to prevent this from happening. Some believe that Iran is an extremist but essentially rational actor, and can thus be deterred. Others believe the threat to be truly existential — that Iran’s theocratic commitment to Israel’s destruction may lead it to take unimaginable steps and risks — and thus that Israel must do everything it can to prevent that.

Neither side can afford to be wrong. Netanyahu, by all indications of the existentialist mind-set, certainly cannot.

In this case, as in no other, it behooves critics of Israel generally and Netanyahu specifically to approach the issue with caution and humility. If one can legitimately argue whether a nuclear Iran truly is an existential threat to Israel, Netanyahu’s perception of it as such is sincere.

Imagine him alone in his office, prior to the final decision: on the one hand, a threat to Israel’s very existence, and the Jewish people have already undergone one Holocaust in recent history. Israel was established so that the Jewish people would never again face the threat of extermination. Never again.

Conversely, the consequences of acting are also potentially dire, even assuming a successful attack. Iran already has the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb, and an attack could set the program back by no more than a few years — of value in itself but not a solution.

Moreover, according to Israeli estimates, Iran has hundreds of Shahab missiles capable of striking Israel. And along with Syria, Iran has provided Hezbollah with an almost unfathomable arsenal of more than 50,000 rockets, designed precisely for this scenario, which can blanket all of Israel from Lebanon.

There is no reason to believe that Hezbollah will not use this arsenal. During the 2006 Lebanon war, Hezbollah fired 4,000 rockets at Israel, about one-third of its 13,000-missile arsenal at the time; if it were to employ a similar ratio today — and it could be far larger — the results would cause a level of destruction Israel has never before experienced. Hamas too has a large rocket arsenal in waiting, but “just” thousands.

Furthermore, the destabilization of the regimes in Egypt and Syria, following the Arab Spring, greatly increases the dangers that they too might be drawn into the confrontation. Syria, because it may have an interest in deflecting domestic unrest by focusing public attention on an external enemy. Egypt, because the new Islamist-based government will, at very best, be far less committed to peace with Israel. An explosion of popular fury on the Egyptian and Arab street may force it to act.

The international community, which is finally beginning to take serious measures to deal with the Iranian threat — nearly 20 years after Israel and the U.S. first began warning of it — will undoubtedly respond harshly to an Israeli action and in some cases even impose sanctions. The Obama administration has made clear that it firmly opposes military action, although its own measures have failed to address the threat. Israel has lived with international recriminations before, but it cannot afford an overly severe response from the U.S., its one major ally, on whom it would be even more dependent in a post-attack period.

So herein lies the dilemma: a potential risk to the nation’s existence versus the uncertain results of military action, the likelihood of a devastating Iranian/Hezbollah response, the risk of an end to the peace with Egypt and even a military confrontation and regional war, severe international opprobrium and a partial rift with the United States.

Netanyahu alone will have to make the final decision. May he choose wisely.

• Freilich, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School, was a deputy national security adviser in Israel during Labor and Likud governments.

Portending trends: Iran threatens to target any country

February 6, 2012

Portending trends: Iran threatens to target any country.

iran
Iran threatens to target any country (File photo of Iran’s deputy Revolutionary Guards commander,Gen. Hossein

Iran has threatened West by saying that it will target any country used as a launchpad for attacks against its soil.

Issuing warning to world powers over its nuclear ambitions,Iran’s deputy Revolutionary Guards commander,Gen. Hossein Salami did not clearly eleborate to  which countries he meant as possible hosts for military action against it.
“Any place where enemy offensive operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran originate will be the target of a reciprocal attack by the Guard’s fighting units,”  Salami said.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also issued stern warning to West by saying that ” Iran has its “own threats” to respond to any military attack or sanctions against its oil exports.’
The tensions between Iran  and West  has increased after U.S. defense secretary said Israel was likely to bomb Iran nuclear installations  with or without US help  within months to stop it assembling nuclear weapons.
“In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we haveour own threats which will be implemented at the right time,if necessary,” he said.

The West has also ramped up sanctions aimed at severely curbing Iran’s vital oil exports.
Israel’s defence minister said  there is growing international awareness that military action against Iran’s nuclear programme will have to beconsidered.
Ehud Barak told  that he senses a change in international thinking. He says world leaders are increasingly realising that if sanctions don’t stop Iran’s nuclear programme, “there will be a need to consider action.”
President Barack Obama has said that Israel has not made a decision yet on attacking Iran’s nuclear installations, noting that he still prefers to use diplomacy.
“I do not think Israel has taken a decision on what they need to do,” Obama told .Obama said he believes that the tough international sanctions are hurting the Iranian regime.
“We have mobilized the international community in anunprecedented way. They are feeling the pinch. They are feeling the pressure,” he said.

Until Iran commit itself to peaceful use of nuclear energy and leaves its nuclear weapon programme, both the USare Israel are going to be very concerned about it.

The U.S. and its Western allies accuse Iran of producing atomic weapons while Iran maintained  its  program is meant to produce fuel for future nuclear power reactors and medical radioisotopes needed for cancer patients.
Israel and the U.S. have  have threatened that all ‘options are on the table’ including military action, if Iran continues with its uranium enrichment program.

Baird: Holocaust justifies uneasiness

February 6, 2012

Holocaust justifies uneasiness: Baird – Winnipeg Free Press.

(Canada is truly Israel’s best friend. – JW )

OTTAWA — Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird invoked images of the Holocaust in defending the notion of possible Israeli military action against Iran.

Appearing on CTV’s Question Period Sunday, he suggested the Jewish state has every right to feel threatened and pointed to recent comments by the Islamic republic’s supreme leader, who vowed to remove a “cancer” of Israel from the Middle East.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a speech broadcast across Iran on Friday, also pledged to aid any nation or group that challenges Israel.

“Obviously you can understand why the Jewish people and why Israel would take him seriously,” Baird told the program from Israel.

“Hitler wrote Mein Kampf more than a decade before he became chancellor of Germany. And they take these issues pretty seriously here.”

The book Mein Kampf laid the foundation of Nazi ideology, which led to the Second World War and eventually the Holocaust.

Baird’s comments added to the escalating war of words during the weekend over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.

Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, warned in an interview with the semi-official Fars news agency that any country in the Middle East whose territory is used to launch a military strike will face retaliation.

Salami was quoted as saying Tehran will use “retaliatory aggression” against its neighbours if they aid in such an attack.

The Iranian charge d’affaires, Kambiz Sheikh-Hassani, recently criticized both Baird and Prime Minister Stephen Harper in an email to the Ottawa publication Embassy Magazine, calling their statements on Iran “uninformed, undocumented and inflammatory.”

Harper is on the record several times during the last few weeks describing the regime in Tehran as “a grave threat to peace and security,” and warning it would have no hesitation about using nuclear weapons.

Baird, now on his way to join Harper in China, emphasized Canada supports U.S. President Barack Obama in keeping “all options,” including military action, on the table. “At the same time, I think we have an incredible responsibility to take every single diplomatic effort necessary,” he said.

Repeatedly throughout his visit to the Middle East, Baird has said the new wave of sanctions imposed on Iran by the international community, including a European embargo against Iranian oil, is having a significant impact on the hardline regime.

The concern about the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons is not limited to Israel, he said.

“The fear in the Arab world, the entire Gulf, the entire Middle East is palpable on this issue, and it is increasingly a significant security threat for the West,” Baird said.

Israel and Iran Agreed on Nuclear Ambiguity

February 6, 2012

Israel and Iran Agreed on Nuclear Ambiguity – IPS ipsnews.net.

Analysis by Pierre Klochendler

JERUSALEM, Feb 6, 2012 (IPS) – Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities this spring? That is a question dominating the international agenda. Meanwhile, the grand project of a nuclear weapon-free Middle East is relegated to the utopian “day after” a solution is found to the Islamic republic’s atomic programme.

Strangely enough, Israeli public opinion has no clear opinion on the subject, and relies on ‘those who know best’. ‘Those who know best’, like Defence Minister Ehud Barak, say: “Should sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear programme, there’ll be a need to consider taking action.” “Whoever says ‘later’, could find that it’s too late,” he warned last week.

The concern shared by many defence analysts, including Israelis, is that an Israeli strike would not only unleash a terrible all-out war, but would only set Iran’s nuclear programme back by just a few years.

“Tough sanctions and a united diplomatic front are the best chance for crippling Iran’s nuclear programme,” urged a New York Times op-ed on Friday.

On the other hand, Israeli defence officials have expressed concern that should the Iranian nuclear issue not be tackled head-on – either financially or militarily – the region would plunge into nuclear proliferation chaos, with potential leakage to non-actor states.

Such are the parameters of the debate; either an attack – with or without U.S. endorsement – or sanctions. What about alternatives, like the radical idea of a nuclear weapon-free zone (NWFZ) as strategy to neutralise Iran’s nuclear programme?

Israeli governments have conditioned a regional NWFZ with achieving comprehensive peace with all of Israel’s neighbours. This is virtually impossible given the current character of the Iranian regime. And, there’s no progress on the Arab peace front.

Yet, civil society activists take succour from the fact that following the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, a follow-up conference will be convened this year in Finland.

The gathering will discuss an agreement on how to transform the region into a NWFZ and free of all other weapons of mass destruction. The host country has been accepted by all governments, including both Israel and Iran. “Most Israelis aren’t even aware that their country’s willing to contemplate the NWFZ idea,” emphasises Hillel Schenker, co-editor of the Palestine-Israel journal, a Jerusalem-based quarterly run by both Israeli and Palestinian experts.

Last October, the former spokesperson for the Israeli branch of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War coordinated a meeting between Israeli and Iranian activists. Held in London under the auspices of a civil society initiative to establish a Conference on Security and Cooperation in the Middle East, the meeting facilitated the development of areas of mutual understanding between both peoples.

Such meeting is exceptional. By and large, public discussion is stifled by pressure at the helm. When ex- Mossad spy agency chief Meir Dagan questioned the judgment of Israel’s leaders that a military solution exists, Barak attacked his outspokenness, calling it “serious behaviour”.

Usually open to debate, Israelis tend to consider the nuclear question taboo or too complex for expressing dissenting opinions. It’s fine by most that only top acting political and military leaders assume that right, only in closed forums. Any relevant information in Hebrew is rare; information in English is abundant but arduous to analyse.

The absence of discussion stems also from the fact that, since the inception of its own nuclear programme in the late 1950s, Israel has officially stuck to a policy of “ambiguity”: it “won’t be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons in the region” is the official posture.

Israel is not an NPT signatory; Iran is. But both countries reject and refrain from any linkage between their respective nuclear programmes.

The secrecy shrouding their country’s programmes enables Israelis to feel that they participate in the defence of their state without having to grapple with its nuclear choices.

“If we as a society give any thought to nuclear weapons, it’s to Iran’s, which hasn’t yet become a reality,” notes Sharon Dolev, Greenpeace Mediterranean disarmament campaigner.”Like the hunchback who doesn’t see his hump, we don’t see our own weapons.”

Ambiguity therefore means that the international community should continue to ignore Dimona, believed to be the centre of the Israeli nuclear programme, and focus solely on Natanz, said to be the nerve centre of the Iranian nuclear programme.

Likewise, Iran is ambiguous with regard to its nuclear quest. While the International Atomic Energy Agency reported in November that Iran has engaged in activities related to the development of nuclear weapons, there’s no ‘smoking gun’ as to a decision to actually develop a bomb.

Israeli government officials praise “ambiguity” as it enhances Israel’s security almost as much as WMD. Assuming such a policy is necessary, nuclear demilitarisation activists propose a debate which would respect the constraints of not exposing Israel’s nuclear capability. Such discussion would strengthen the democratic character of their society.

“It’s still possible, even obligatory, to hold serious discussions about the need for nuclear weapons, the dangers they present regionally and globally, and the various possibilities for disarmament,” says Dolev.

Advocates of the abolition of Israel’s “nuclear opacity” believe that calling a spade a spade could gradually open the region towards arms control, if not creating a NWFZ.

“But if prevention (of Iran’s nuclear capability) fails, it’s unlikely that Israelis would look to arms control as a solution,” predicts Avner Cohen, author of the controversial ‘Israel and the Bomb’ (1998). All the more so given that during the Cold war, the backdrop to arms control dialogues was the declared existence of nuclear weapons.

Besides, Israelis almost consensually consider nuclear ambiguity as a case of force majeure, the most effective deterrent to what’s widely perceived here as the “existential threat” posed by Iran.

This linkage approach between WMD and extreme hostility, advocates of denuclearisation concede, takes precedence over all other considerations. Supposing Iran develops a bomb, “we don’t know which nuclear weapons state will disarm first, we do know which will disarm last. That country is Israel,” says Cohen.

Many civil society activists conclude that it’s probably already too late for Israelis to persuade their leaders that getting out of the “ambiguity” bunker might defuse the Iranian time-bomb that’s already ticking dangerously. (END)

Iranians bemoan sanctions hardship as vote approaches

February 6, 2012

Iranians bemoan sanctions hardship as vote approaches.

Food items are placed in trolleys as customers stand in line to pay for their goods at a shopping mall in northwestern Tehran Feb. 3, 2012. (Reuters)

Food items are placed in trolleys as customers stand in line to pay for their goods at a shopping mall in northwestern Tehran Feb. 3, 2012. (Reuters)

Each day that he struggles to buy food for his family, vegetable seller Hasan Sharafi shoulders part of the burden of Iran’s defiance of the West over its nuclear program. He can hardly bear it.

“Prices are going up every day, life is expensive. I buy chicken or meat once per month. I used to buy it twice per week,” the father of four said in Iran’s central city of Isfahan.

“Sometimes I want to kill myself. I feel desperate. I do not earn enough to feed my children.”

With just a month to go before a parliamentary election, Iran has been hit hard in recent months by new U.S. and European economic sanctions over its nuclear program, which Tehran says is peaceful but the West says is aimed at making a bomb.

In conversations in towns and cities across Iran, people complained of rapidly deteriorating economic conditions, likely to be the main issue in an election that exposes divisions between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and hardline opponents.

The last time Iranians voted, in a 2009 presidential election, Ahmadinejad’s disputed victory triggered eight months of violent street demonstrations. The authorities successfully put down that uprising by force, but since then the Arab Spring has demonstrated the vulnerability of governments in the region to uprisings fuelled by anger over economic difficulty.

“My father lost his job because the factory he used to work for 30 years was closed last month. I am so pessimistic. Why is this happening to us?” lamented mathematics student Behnaz in the northern city of Rasht.

“I don’t know whether the prices are rising because of sanctions. The only thing that I know is that our lives are ruined. I have no hope for the future.”

Iran’s leaders deny that sanctions are having an economic impact, but are also calling for solidarity in the face of them. In a defiant speech on Friday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Iranians sanctions would make them stronger.

“Such sanctions will benefit us. They will make us more self reliant,” he said in a televised address marking the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 revolution. “Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course.”

Bread on the table

Such rhetoric resonates with some Iranians, who say they are willing to endure pain to defend a nuclear program that has become a symbol of national pride.

“America uses the nuclear issue as an excuse to replace our regime with a puppet regime to control our energy resources. But we will not let them. Nuclear technology is our right and I fully support our leaders’ view. Death to America,” said student Mohammad Reza Khorrami in the northern town of Chalous.

But the West is hoping sanctions will turn ordinary Iranians against their leaders, and there are clear signs of discontent. When you ask Iranians about the nuclear issue, many seem to see it as a distraction from the real question of economic hardship.
“I am not a politician. I don’t care about the nuclear dispute. Soon, I might not be able to afford food and other basic needs of my children,” said Mitra Zarrabi, a schoolteacher and mother of three.

“What is the nuclear dispute? Don’t waste my time asking irrelevant questions,” said 62-year-old peddler Reza Zohrabi in a marketplace overflowing with imported Chinese goods in the city of Kashan. “I’m not interested in talking about politics and the nuclear issue. I have to find ways to put bread on my family’s table.”

Iranian authorities say 15 percent of the country’s workforce is unemployed. Many formal jobs pay a pittance, meaning the true figure of people without adequate work to support themselves is probably far higher.

Hemmat Ghorban, 32, sits in a square in Mashhad city with a group of men, waiting to get work as day construction workers.

“I used to sell fruit in a small shop in Zanjan city,” said Ghorban, who was forced to close his shop because of the increasing rent and high price of materials.

“Today I earned nothing. How am I going to support my family? Soon my family will be homeless. Sometimes I go without work for three or four days.”

The new sanctions include measures signed into law by President Barack Obama on New Year’s Eve that would ban any institution dealing with Iran’s central bank from the U.S. financial system.

If fully implemented, the law would effectively make it impossible for countries to pay for Iranian oil. Washington is imposing the sanctions gradually and offering waivers to prevent chaos on international energy markets, but countries seeking those permits are expected to reduce trade with Iran over time.

The European Union, which collectively bought about a fifth of Iran’s 2.6 million barrels per day of oil exports last year, has announced it will halt Iranian crude imports. Other countries are scrambling to comply with U.S. and EU measures.

Since the sanctions have only begun to bite, far greater pain is looming. Oil is 60 percent of Iran’s economy. Much of its food and animal feed are imported, and many of its factories assemble goods from imported parts.

Already, ships bringing grain have been turning back from Iranian ports because Tehran cannot pay suppliers: an agricultural consultancy said maize imports from Ukraine – a major source of animal feed – fell 40 percent last month.

China, Iran’s biggest trade partner, cut its purchases of Iranian oil by half in January and February this year, and is seeking steeper discounts for the oil that it does buy. Turkey wants a discounted price for gas.

Such discounts mean that even if it does manage to thwart sanctions and find buyers for its energy exports, Iran’s revenue will be hurt. It relies on oil exports to buy goods to feed its 74 million people and pay for subsidies to keep prices low.

People have been queuing at banks to withdraw their savings and buy hard currency, even though banks have increased interest rates on savings to 20 percent from 12 percent.

Currency exchange shops are refusing to sell dollars at official rates, forcing people to the black market where the rial has lost more than half its value in the past two months.

For those who link the hardship to international sanctions, the most vivid example is neighboring Iraq, where an embargo imposed between 1991 and the U.S. invasion in 2003 reduced a wealthy oil exporting country to dire poverty.

“I don’t want Iran to become like Iraq before America’s invasion. With the sanctions, soon we will have problems finding essential goods and even medicine,” said 31-year-old teacher Rokhsareh Sharafoleslam in Chalous.

Reformist candidates are largely barred from standing in Iran’s parliamentary election, which will put Ahmadinejad – known in the West as a hardliner – against opponents that are even more conservative. The election will largely be a referendum on Ahmadinejad’s economic policies, which his opponents blame for the economic disarray.

For decades, Iran has used its oil wealth to provide the public with lavish subsidies for goods. Ahmadinejad has been cutting those subsidies, replacing them with direct payments to citizens of around $110 a month for a family of four.

His hardline political opponents say the payments are a bribe to win support from voters and have fueled inflation.

Analyst Hamid Farahvashian said the payments could nevertheless win voter support for the president.

“The lower-income people in villages and small towns can live on that money. So, Ahmadinejad’s camp basically will win their votes in parliamentary polls.”

Inflation, unemployment

Prices for bread, dairy, rice, vegetables and cooking fuel have soared. A traditional Iranian loaf of “sangak” bread costs 30 percent more than a few months ago.

“We are worried and afraid. I feel depressed when I think about future of my children. What might happen if America and other countries impose further sanctions on Iran?” said a housewife in Kermanshah, who declined to give her name.

Reza Khaleghi, who owns a small grocery store in the central city of Karaj near Tehran, said gloomily: “Because of sanctions prices are increasing almost every day. The purchasing power of people is nose-diving.”

Since 2010, subsidy cutbacks have tripled the price of electricity, water and natural gas used for factories, cooking and heating homes. Soaring costs caused the closure of at least 1,800 small factories in Tehran province alone, according to Iranian media.

On a bus from Mashhad to the nearby town of Quchan, people spoke of little else but inflation.

“Prices are increasing by the hour. My husband and I cannot afford starting a family as life is so expensive,” said Mahla Aref, a government employee.

Small businesses say they are struggling to operate as the falling currency raises the cost of goods.

“Business is almost dead. People only buy essential basics,” said Khosro Sadegi, who plans to shut down his electronics and appliance shop in the town of Sari.

“Because of rial fluctuations we have to increase prices and people just don’t buy anything anymore.”