WarSclerotic

WND » Ayatollah: Kill all Jews, annihilate Israel

By Reza Khalili

The Iranian government, through a website proxy, has laid out the legal and religious justification for the destruction of Israel and the slaughter of its people.

The doctrine includes wiping out Israeli assets and Jewish people worldwide.

Calling Israel a danger to Islam, the conservative website Alef, with ties to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the opportunity must not be lost to remove “this corrupting material. It is a ‘jurisprudential justification” to kill all the Jews and annihilate Israel, and in that, the Islamic government of Iran must take the helm.”

The article, written by Alireza Forghani, a conservative analyst and a strategy specialist in Khamenei’s camp, now is being run on most state-owned conservative sites, including the Revolutionary Guards’ Fars News Agency, showing that the regime endorses this doctrine.

Because Israel is going to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is justified in launching a preemptive, cataclysmic attack against the Jewish state, the doctrine argues.

On Friday, in a major speech at prayers, Khamenei announced that Iran will support any nation or group that attacks the “cancerous tumor” of Israel. Though his statement was seen by some in the West as fluff, there is substance behind it.

Iran’s Defense Ministry announced this weekend that it test-fired an advanced two-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile and boasted about successfully putting a new satellite into orbit, reminding the West that its engineers have mastered the technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles even as the Islamic state pushes its nuclear weapons program.

The commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Brig. Gen. Seyyed Mehdi Farahi, stated in August that the Safir missile, which is capable of transporting a satellite into space, can easily be launched parallel to the earth’s orbit, which will transform it into an intercontinental ballistic missile. Western analysts didn’t believe this would happen until 2015. Historically, orbiting a satellite is the criterion for crediting a nation with ICBM capability.

Forghani details the Islamic duty of jihad as laid out in the Quran for the sake of Allah and states that “primary jihad,” according to some Shiite jurists, can only occur when the Hidden Imam, the Shiites’ 12th Imam Mahdi, returns. Shiites believe Mahdi’’s return will usher in Armageddon.

In the absence of the hidden Imam, Forghani says, “defensive jihad” could certainly take place when Islam is threatened, and Muslims must defend Islam and kill their enemies. To justify such action, Alef quotes the Shiites’ first imam, Ali, who stated “Waging war against the enemies with whom war is inevitable and there is a strong possibility that in near future they will attack Muslims is a must and the duty of Muslims.”

The article then quotes the Quran (Albaghara 2:191-193): “And slay them wherever ye find them, and drive them out of the places whence they drove you out, for persecution [of Muslims] is worse than slaughter [of non-believers] … and fight them until persecution is no more, and religion is for Allah.”

It is the duty for all Muslims to participate in this defensive jihad, Forghani says. A fatwa by the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini made it clear that any political domination by infidels over Muslims authorizes Muslims to defend Islam by all means. Iran now has the ICBM means to deliver destruction on Israel and soon will have nuclear warheads for those missiles.

In order to attack Iran, the article says, Israel needs the approval and assistance of America, and under the current passive climate in the United States, the opportunity must not be lost to wipe out Israel before it attacks Iran.

Under this preemptive defensive doctrine, several Ground Zero points of Israel must be destroyed and its people annihilated. Forghani cites the last census by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics that shows Israel has a population of 7.5 million citizens of which a majority of 5.7 million are Jewish. Then it breaks down the districts with the highest concentration of Jewish people, indicating that three cities, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa, contain over 60 percent of the Jewish population that Iran could target with its Shahab 3 ballistic missiles, killing all its inhabitants.

Forghani suggests that Iran’s Sejil missile, which is a two-stage rocket with a trajectory and speed that make it impossible to intercept, should target such Israeli facilities as: the Rafael nuclear plant, which is the main nuclear engineering center of Israel; the Eilun nuclear plant; another Israeli reactor in Nebrin; and the Dimona reactor in the nuclear research center in Neqeb, the most critical nuclear reactor in Israel because it produces 90 percent enriched uranium for Israel’’s nuclear weapons.

Other targets, according to the article, include airports and air force bases such as the Sedot Mikha Air Base, which contains Jericho ballistic missiles and is located southwest of the Tel Nof Air Base, where aircraft equipped with nuclear weapons are based. Secondary targets include power plants, sewage treatment facilities, energy resources, and transportation and communication infrastructures.

Finally, Forghani says, Shahab 3 and Ghadr missiles can target urban settlements until the Israelis are wiped out.

Forghani claims that Israel could be destroyed in less than nine minutes and that Khamenei, as utmost authority, the Velayete Faghih (Islamic Jurist), also believes that Israel and America not only must be defeated but annihilated.

The radicals ruling Iran today not only posses over 1,000 ballistic missiles but are on the verge of ICBM delivery and have sufficient enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs even as they continue to highly enrich uranium despite four sets of U.N. sanctions.

The Iranian secret documentary “The Coming Is Upon Us” clearly indicates that these radicals believe the destruction of Israel will trigger the coming of the last Islamic Messiah and that even Jesus Christ, who will convert to Islam, will act as Mahdi’s deputy, praying to Allah as he stands behind the 12th Imam.

Raising the stakes on Iran – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Israel, America trying to make Iranians sweat by resorting to more intense military threats

Alex Fishman

Israel and the United States, apparently acting in coordination with each other, raised the stakes at the regional poker table over the weekend.

Pentagon officials said that Israel has already started the countdown ahead of a military strike. American television contributed its part to reinforcing the above assessment by providing a description of the manner in which Israelis expected to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. It was a simple and logical operational account, Hollywood-style. It was so convincing in its simplicity that all that’s left was to ask when the show will get on the road.

 Meanwhile, Israel contributed the Herzliya Conference, with a variety of statements that hinted: Don’t mess with us. We know what needs to be done, and if necessary we’ll do it.

As opposed to what may appear around here, the Iranians got the message, yet they have not yet started to sweat. They too raised the stakes.

Supreme leader Khamenei reminded us that Iran assists every global party that fights against Israel. In order words, you’re going to hurt us? Not only Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamaswill operate against you; every terror group we fund worldwide, ranging from South America to the Far East, will give you no rest.

Now, the ball is back in the Israeli-American court. If the military threats don’t deter Iran, what should be done until the sanctions start affecting Tehran? More threats? Pull out the claws?

The Cuba model

Former Air Force Chief, General (res.) Eitan Ben-Eliyahu, estimates in closed-door forums that the crisis vis-à-vis Iran is following the model of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. As was the case then, the current crisis has three sides to it.

Firstly, we have the sanctions on Iran (similar to the naval blockade on Cuba.) Secondly, we see military threats in the form of reinforced American deployment in the Persian Gulf (similar to the high alert called by the US ahead of a possible strike on Cuba.) Thirdly, the US and USSR maintained a secret dialogue channel in 1962 that ultimately allowed the Russians to get off their high horse. It’s unclear whether such channel exists today.

In line with this model, over the weekend both Israel and the US reinforced the military threats. During the Cuban crisis, the Russians treated the American threat as one that may materialize. The Iranians, even after the past weekend, are not there yet. During the Cuban crisis, there was the possibility of a global nuclear war in the immediate range. Nowadays we are talking about the chance of a regional, conventional and non-immediate clash.

Moreover, today it is unclear who truly holds the reigns in handling the crisis. Under the Cuban model, there were two maim actors: President John Kenney and his brother, Robert Kenney. President Obama and Defense Secretary Panetta wish to play the role of the Kennedys in the Iranian crisis. However, they’re not alone: Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak are also interested in the role.

Meanwhile, the Americans are unwilling to let Israel lead the handling of the crisis. The US and Europe do not accept Israel’s thesis of “now or never.”

In March, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will determine whether Iran compiled with the demands presented to it. Should the new inspectors’ report, completed at the end of January, fail to satisfy IAEA chiefs, the way shall be paved for handing over the matter to the UN Security Council. A similar international atmosphere paved the way for the American attack on Iraq in 2003.

For Israel, the IAEA decision in March will be yet another stop in the decision-making process pertaining to the crisis. It is very likely that at that point, Israel will not only place declarations on the table, but rather, back them up with something more tangible

Final member of Damascus-based Hamas politburo leaves Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(Couldn’t resist adding this pic… 🙂 – JW )

Senior Hamas leader Imad el-Alami arrives in Gaza, received with chants and cheers; Hamas has decided to leave Syria so not to be seen as endorsing Assad’s crackdown.

By DPA

A senior member of the Hamas movement politburo, Imad el-Alami, previously based in Syria, returned to the Gaza Strip on Sunday.

Hamas sources said that he was now the final member of the Damascus-based politburo of the movement to leave Syria.

	Demonstrators burning an image of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration after Friday prayers in Baba Amro in Homs, December 16, 2011
	Photo by: Reuters

Hamas has decided to leave Syria in order not to be seen as endorsing the regime of President Bashar Assad in his bloody crackdown against his own people.

El-Alami crossed into Gaza Sunday night through the Rafah crossing between the Hamas-ruled coastal enclave and Egypt.

Leaders and supporters of Hamas gathered at the border crossing and received him with chants and cheers.

In 1991, Israel deported el-Alami, originally from the Gaza Strip, to south Lebanon.

Three years ago, el-Alami settled in Syria, together with Khaled Meshal, the chief of the movement’s politburo. Before moving to Syria, he had been Hamas’s ambassador in Tehran.

Hamas has not officially announced it was moving its headquarters from Damascus.
Sami Abu Zuhri, Gaza Hamas spokesman, told reporters that Al-Alami came to Gaza for a visit, but he refused to say how long he was going to stay.

Earlier on Sunday, Israeli Radio reported that el-Alami has been the contact link between Hamas militants in the West Bank and those in the Gaza Strip.

Abu Zuhri denied that there were regional guarantees for the return of el-Alami to the Gaza Strip, adding that “a Palestinian who is coming home doesn’t need guarantees.”

Russia may seek controlled exit of Assad in … JPost – Headlines.

What is At the Root of the Israel-Iran Confrontation? – Jeffrey Goldberg – International – The Atlantic.

Feb 5 2012, 10:55 AM ET 14 Since we seem to be moving (once again) toward some sort of confrontation with Iran, I thought it would be worthwhile to revisit one of the main reasons the world is sliding toward war. I’m opposed to an Israeli strike on Iran; I’m also opposed to an American strike on Iran. Military bombardments could lead to consequences we haven’t yet fully thought through. And  I believe there is still time for the U.S., working in concert with its allies, to bring about a change in Iranian behavior. I also believe that President Obama is serious when he says that all options are on the table. But I’m also opposed to the idea that we should give up and move toward a policy of containing Iran. I don’t think containment would work, for reasons I outlined here.

One of the problems with the anti-attack crowd is that it downplays the threat Iran poses, particularly to Israel, but also to the U.S., to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and to Iran’s non-Jewish neighbors as well.

But since the worldwide conversation has turned again toward the alleged imminence of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, I asked Adam Chandler, the Goldblog Deputy-Editor-for-Studying-Iranian Anti-Semitism-So-I-Don’t-Have-To, to put together a bit of documentary proof about why the Israeli leadership might find Iran’s leaders, and their intentions, to be so worrying.

Chandler reminded me that one sure way to tell that an opponent of military action is not grappling seriously with the evidence that Iran really, truly, actually prefers to see the Jewish state physically eliminated is if said opponent makes mention of the old line, “Mahmoud Ahmadinejad never actually said he wanted to destroy Israel.”

A notable example came last year when Reza Aslan attempted to explain the statement as a Farsi translation gaffe. In response, we here at the Goldblog assembled a list of twenty completely unambiguous statements by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that show his true feelings. Often these lines come from translations made by official Iranian news sources, which actually emphasize the destruction. Here are a few to refresh your minds:

July, 2006: “Nations in the region will be more furious every day. It won’t take long before the wrath of the people turns into a terrible explosion that will wipe the Zionist entity off the map…The basic problem in the Islamic world is the existence of the Zionist regime, and the Islamic world and the region must mobilize to remove this problem. It is a usurper that our enemies made and imposed on the Muslim world, a regime that prevented the progress of the region’s nations, a regime that all Muslims must join hands in isolating worldwide.”

October, 2006: “This regime (Israel) will be gone, definitely…”You (the Western powers) should know that any government that stands by the Zionist regime from now on will not see any result but the hatred of the people…The wrath of the region’s people is boiling… You should not complain that we did not give a warning. We are saying this explicitly now…”

January, 2008: “I advise you to abandon the filthy Zionist entity which has reached the end of the line… It has lost its reason to be and will sooner or later fall. The ones who still support the criminal Zionists should know that the occupiers’ days are numbered.”

February, 2008: “World powers have created a black and dirty microbe named the Zionist regime and have unleashed it like a savage animal on the nations of the region.”

Boiling wraths! Filthy Zionist entities! Black and dirty microbes! Ahmadinejad is not just an average spewer of anti-Israel invective, he is the Robert Browning of hate. It is not clear why some people won’t give him his due.

There is another argument floating across the Internets, that Ahmadinejad’s words don’t matter, that he is not the one in charge of the nuclear program, and that his anti-Semitism is far more extreme than that of other regime leaders.  Well, here is the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking a couple of days ago: “The Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor that should be removed and will be removed, God willing.”

Of course, a few of you may be thinking, “Well, words are words. It’s not like Iran is parading Shahab-3 missiles down the streets of Tehran with banners and posters talking about the destruction of Israel, right?”

The banner on this missile says: “Israel must be uprooted and erased from history.”

This banner even included a translation:

Accordingly, we here at the Goldblog will continue to issue updates on Iranian rhetoric-revisionism.

Trust Obama on Iran? His Diplomatic Failures Make That Impossible « Commentary Magazine.

The wise heads at the New York Times and other bastions of liberalism are increasingly frightened by the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. But, like the Obama administration, what really scares them is the prospect Israel might strike on its own to avert the peril of a nuclear weapon in the hands of the ayatollahs.

In an editorial published yesterday, the Times reverted to treating Israel’s warnings to the West about the need to act as morally equivalent to Iran’s genocidal threats against the life of the Jewish state. The Times put down put Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s assertion that Israel was a “cancer” they would eradicate as mere “saber rattling” to be pigeonholed alongside Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s prescient comment that anyone who “says ‘later’ may find that later is too late,” to deal with Iran.

The Times believes Israel’s government must be forced to wait patiently until the Obama administration’s cautious program of sanctions directed at Iran can work. But the problem with that advice is the three years that Obama has invested in rallying international support for sanctions have not worked for two reasons.

The first is the Iranians believe that in the end, Obama will, as the Times advises him to do, break down and accept a negotiated settlement of the issue that will allow the Iranians to run out the clock the way North Korea did when they bluffed the U.S. on the same issue. The chances of any such deal being observed are virtually nonexistent. Negotiations at this point would be an admission the United States is prepared to live with a nuclear Iran.

The second is the United States cannot count on the international support that would make sanctions work even if Obama had the will to enforce them. The diplomatic wild cards of Russia and China can always be counted on to spike any American initiative when they please. The evidence for this assertion was on display at the United Nations yesterday when both Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Syria that was aimed at ending the slaughter in that country and forcing dictator Bashar Assad out in Damascus. The administration thought it had forged a consensus on Syria, but in the end, they were thwarted by the desire of Russia and China to not let the West prevail. That will embolden Assad to hang on longer and kill more of his people, leaving those well-meaning pundits who keep predicting his fall disappointed again.

But it also ought to disillusion those observers who are similarly counting on an American-led sanctions plan to force Iran’s leaders to give up their nuclear ambitions. Obama’s patient approach on Iran is flawed in many respects, principally because the Iranians have good reason to doubt the president’s willingness to go to the mat with them. But Washington is also handicapped by the fact that it cannot count on either Russia or China to stand by and let Tehran be isolated or to have its fuel exports embargoed. If Obama can’t rely on them to play along on Syria where the international stakes are smaller, how can it possibly assume they will do the right thing on Iran?

These calculations are exactly why Israel’s leaders are contemplating acting on their own to stop Iran. Though the Israelis cannot hope to do as thorough a job on Iran’s nuclear facilities as the United States could, those, like the Times editorialists, who claim an Israeli attack would “make things worse” are wrong. Even a delay of a few years in Iran’s timetable might be decisive in averting the danger. And the assumption that an attack would strengthen the Islamist regime is probably mistaken. Faced with the alternative of waiting for Obama’s feckless and unreliable diplomacy to work, it’s no wonder that Jerusalem may believe there is no choice but to strike and to strike soon.

‘Eshel will prepare perfect attack plan’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Incoming IAF chief will be tasked with planning possible strike in Iran, possible confrontation with in Syria, but a former colleague says ‘He’ll put all cards on the table – good or bad’

Yoav Zitun

Hours after it was announced that Defense Minister Ehud Barak has approved IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Benny Gantz’s decision to appoint Major-General Amir Eshel as the next IAF commander, colleagues congratulated the decision, saying he is the right man for the job.

“He’ll put all the cards on the table – good or bad,” said a senior officer that served with Eshel.

Referring to the possibility that Eshel would be the one overseeing an IAF military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the officer said: “He’ll know how to prepare the forces in the most meticulous and perfect manner, and lay out all the possible scenarios and chances of success.”

‘Will prepare forces in most meticulous manner’ (Photo: Eliad Levy)

During his previous appointment as the head of the IDF Planning Directorate, Eshel did not publicly deal with the issue of Iran; however in a rare public statement two weeks ago, the designated IAF chief said he is worried that a nuclear Iran would limit Israel’s military freedom against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Eshel also commented on the situation in Syria, saying that if Assad’s regime was to collapse, “Mass aggregations of chemical and biological weapons will trickle into the hands of Hezbollah.

“In any battle scenario – whether erupting due to the collapse of the Syrian regime or due to an Israeli strike in Iran, IAF aircraft would have to deal with limited freedom of action in the Syrian and Lebanese skies,” he added.

Eshel will replace outgoing Major General Ido Nehushtan, who beat him in the race for the elite position four years ago.

The Associated Press: Just a bluff? Fears grow of Israeli attack on Iran.

By DAN PERRY, Associated Press – 12 minutes ago

JERUSALEM (AP) — For the first time in nearly two decades of escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, world leaders are genuinely concerned that an Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic could be imminent — an action that many fear might trigger a wider war, terrorism and global economic havoc.

High-level foreign dignitaries, including the U.N. chief and the head of the American military, have stopped in Israel in recent weeks, urging leaders to give the diplomatic process more time to work. But U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has reportedly concluded that an Israeli attack on Iran is likely in the coming months.

Despite harsh economic sanctions and international pressure, Iran is refusing to abandon its nuclear program, which it insists is purely civilian, and threatening Israel and the West.

It’s beginning to cause jitters in world capitals and financial markets.

“Of course I worry that there will be a military conflict,” Britain’s deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, said in a magazine interview last week. He said Britain was “straining every single sinew to resolve this through a combination of pressure and engagement,” rather than military action.

Is Israel bluffing? Israeli leaders have been claiming Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons since the early 1990s, and defense officials have issued a series of ever-changing estimates on how close Iran is to the bomb. But the saber-rattling has become much more direct and vocal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently draws parallels between modern-day Iran and Nazi Germany on the eve of the Holocaust.

On Thursday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed during a high-profile security conference that there is a “wide global understanding” that military action may be needed.

“There is no argument about the intolerable danger a nuclear Iran (would pose) to the future of the Middle East, the security of Israel and to the economic and security stability of the entire world,” Barak said.

A day earlier, visiting U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon implored Israel to find a peaceful solution to the nuclear standoff.

Israel views Iran as a mortal threat, citing Iranian calls for Israel’s destruction, Iran’s support for anti-Israel militant groups and Iranian missile technology capable of hitting Israel.

On Friday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called Israel a “cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut,” and boasted of supporting any group that will challenge the Jewish state.

When faced with such threats, Israeli has a history of lashing out in the face of world opposition. That legacy that includes the game-changing 1967 Middle East war, which left Israel in control of vast Arab lands, a brazen 1981 airstrike that destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor, and a stealthy 2007 airstrike in Syria that is believed to have destroyed a nuclear reactor in the early stages of construction.

Armed with a fleet of ultramodern U.S.-made fighter planes and unmanned drones, and reportedly possessing intermediate-range Jericho missiles, Israel has the capability to take action against Iran too, though it would carry grave risks.

It would require flying over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria or Turkey. It is uncertain whether any of these Muslim countries would knowingly allow Israel to use their airspace.

With targets some 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away, Israeli planes would likely have the complicated task of refueling in flight. Iran’s antiquated air force, however, is unlikely to provide much of a challenge.

Many in the region cannot believe Israel would take such a step without a green light from the United States, its most important ally. That sense is deepened by the heightened stakes of a U.S. election year and the feeling that if Israel acts alone, the West would not escape unscathed.

The U.S. has been trying to push both sides, leading the charge for international sanctions while also pressing Israel to give the sanctions more time. In recent weeks, both the U.S. and European Union have imposed harsher sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, the lifeblood of its economy, and its central bank. Israeli officials say they want the sanctions to be imposed faster and for more countries to join them.

Last week, The Associated Press reported that officials in Israel — all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss Iran — were concerned that the measures, while welcome, were constraining Israel in its ability to act because the world expected the effort to be given a chance.

Even a limited Israeli operation could well unleash regionwide fighting. Iran could launch its Shihab 3 missiles at Israel, and have its local proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, unleash rockets. Israel’s military intelligence chief, Aviv Kochavi, warned last week that Israel’s enemies possess some 200,000 rockets.

While sustained rocket and missile fire would certainly make life uncomfortable in Israel, Barak himself has said he believes casualties would be low — suggesting it would be in the hundreds.

Iran might also try to attack Western targets in the region, including the thousands of U.S. forces based in the Gulf with the 5th Fleet.

An Israeli attack might have other unintended consequences. A European diplomat based in Pakistan, permitted to speak only under condition of anonymity, said that if Israel attacks, Islamabad will have no choice but to support any Iranian retaliation. That raises the specter of putting a nuclear-armed Pakistan at odds with Israel, widely believed to have its own significant nuclear arsenal.

To some, the greatest risk is to the moribund world economy.

Analysts believe an Israeli attack would cause oil prices to spike, since global markets so far have largely dismissed the Israeli threats and not “price in” the threat. According to one poll conducted by the Rapidan Group, an energy consulting firm in Bethesda, Maryland, prices would surge by $23 a barrel. The price of oil settled Friday at $97.84 a barrel.

“Traders don’t believe there’s anything but bluster going on,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan and an energy adviser to former President George W. Bush. “A potential Israeli attack on Iran is different than almost every scenario that we’ve seen before.”

McNally said Iran could rattle oil markets by targeting oil fields in southern Iraq or export facilities in Saudi Arabia or Qatar — and withhold sales of its own oil and natural gas from countries not boycotting.

Iran also could attempt to carry out its biggest threat: to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. That could send oil prices soaring beyond $200 a barrel. But analysts note Iran’s navy is overmatched.

If a surge in oil prices proved lasting, financial markets would probably plummet on concerns that global economic growth would slow and on the fear that any conflict could worsen and spread.

For the U.S. economy, higher gasoline prices would likely result in lower consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. That could have devastating consequences for an incumbent president seeking re-election.

Nick Witney, former head of the EU’s European Defense Agency, said “the political and economic consequences of an Israeli attack would be catastrophic for Europe” since the likely spike in the price of oil alone “could push the entire EU, including Germany, into recession.”

He said this could lead to “messy defaults” by countries like Greece and Italy, and possibly cause a collapse of the already-wobbly euro. Witney, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, added that “the Iranians would probably retaliate against European interests in the region, and conceivably more directly with terrorism aimed at Western countries and societies.”

Oil disruptions or higher oil prices will also dent growth in Asia. China, India, South Korea and Japan all buy substantial amounts of Iranian crude and could face temporary shortages.

China’s fast-growing economy, which gets 11 percent of its oil from Iran, has urged all sides to avoid disrupting supplies. Any impact on China’s economy, the world’s second-largest, could send out global shockwaves if it dented Chinese demand for industrial components and raw materials.

Why is the issue coming to a head with such unfortunate timing, with the U.S. election looming and the global economy hanging by a razor’s edge?

The urgency is fueled by a belief in Israel that Iran is moving centrifuges and key installations deep underground by the summer — combined with doubts about whether either Israel or the United States have the bunker-busting capacity to act effectively thereafter.

At last week’s security conference, Vice Premier Moshe Yaalon, a former military chief, said all of Iran’s nuclear installations are still vulnerable to military strikes. In a startling threat, he appeared to contradict assessments of foreign experts and Israeli defense officials that it would be difficult to strike sensitive Iranian nuclear targets hidden deep underground.

American officials acknowledge the current version of its bunker-buster bombs — considered the largest non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal — may not be able to penetrate Iran’s heavily fortified underground facilities. The Pentagon is asking Congress to reprogram about $82 million in order to make the 30,000-pound bunker-buster bomb more capable.

But U.S. officials also say there are a number of ways to cripple or disable the sites, such as targeting entrance and exit routes to an underground facility, rendering it inaccessible.

Israeli officials at the conference asserted that Iran has already produced enough enriched uranium to eventually build four rudimentary nuclear bombs and — in what would be a new twist — was even developing missiles capable of reaching the U.S.

Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israel’s military intelligence, said the world needed less discussion on the issue. “There is the danger that an escalation could get out of control,” he said. “Israel should go back to what it does best: Shut up.”

David Stringer in London, Slobodan Lekic in Brussels, Brian Murphy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Lolita Baldor in Washington, Business Writer Joe McDonald in Beijing, and Energy Writer Jonathan Fahey and Business Writer Pallavi Gogoi in New York contributed to this report.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2012, 6:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

Heads of Lebanese Internal Security Maj.-Gen. Ashraf Rifi, Col. Wissam al-Hassan

Syrian President Bashar Assad has hired hit squads to kill top Lebanese government, intelligence and security officials whom he suspects of helping insurrectionists and Saudi and Qatari agents smuggle fighters and weapons into the country to fight his regime. One Lebanese hit squad is reported by debkafile‘s counter-terror sources as having been captured in the third week of January by Lebanese security police. Its members confessed to receiving, cash, arms, explosives and a list of targets from Syrian Military intelligence, with precise instructions on the method of assassination for two targets, Director General of Lebanese Internal Security Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi and his deputy, Col. Wissam al-Hassan, head of its Information Branch.

The team was instructed to rig two bomb cars, each loaded with one ton of explosives to be detonated remotely. They were told which cars would be driving by different routes to a secret meeting of all Lebanese intelligence arms at Internal Security headquarters in the Christian Ashrafieh district of Beirut. Two narrow side streets would bring them close to their destination and it was there that the bomb cars would be planted.

This was exactly the same method used to assassinate the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Harirri in February 2005.

However, shortly before they set out for the staff meeting, a foreign clandestine agency warned the two Lebanese officers of the death trap awaiting them. The information, according to our sources, also covered the location of the bomb cars and the whereabouts of the hit team.

Saturday, Jan. 28, Gen. Rifi and Col. Al-Hassan attended a news conference at which Rifi revealed a plot to murder his deputy, without disclosing the identity of its instigator or that he himself had been targeted.

debkafile‘s sources in Beirut explain that he did not dare name the source of the plot or the results of his investigation because people in Lebanon live in extreme dread of the Assad regime’s long arm and its propensities for violence.
But top Lebanese figures are now taking extra security measures to protect themselves and their families from ongoing Syrian assassination conspiracies.

And indeed, Friday, Feb. 3, Gen. Rifi warned Lebanese lawmaker Sami Gemayel, one of the leaders of the Christian Phalange Party, two of whose forbears, Pierre and Amin, were assassinated, to take care because murderers were after him at his home town of Ain Safsaf in the Mattan Mountains.
The Lebanese intelligence chief did not dare reveal who was behind the plot. But our counter-terror sources report that the warning itself indicated that the Lebanese spy chief is on top of a flow of intelligence on the death list Bashar Assad has drawn up for Lebanon.

‘Hezbollah will attack Israel if West inte… JPost – Middle East.

(We’re all shaking in our shoes…  🙂 – JW )

By JPOST.COM STAFF 02/05/2012 19:53

Hezbollah is prepared to attack should Western powers interfere in Syrian affairs, believes that a war in the Middle East could prevent the fall of the Assad regime, Lebanese official says.

By REUTERS/Sharif Karim

Hezbollah is prepared to attack Israel if Western powers interfere in Syria against the regime in Damascus, a Lebanese Hezbollah official said Sunday according to the Palestinian News Network.

The unnamed official said Hezbollah was prepared if Western powers intervened in Syria in order to stop Syrian President Bashar Assad’s crackdown on anti-government protesters, even if the “price for it” is to engage the IDF in battle in order to divert attention away from the Syrian arena.

According to the report, Hezbollah – which is believed to have a stockpile of over 30,000 missiles – believes that a war in the Middle East may prevent the fall of Assad.

The Shi’ite group supports a compromise based on reforms and “easing the crisis” between anti-government forces and the Syrian regime, according to the official. While Assad himself has said his government will push reforms, and has released thousands of detainees arrested since the start of the 11-month conflict, the violence in Syria has not dwindled.

Last week, over 200 people were killed in an overnight military assault on the restive city of Homs. At least 18 people were gunned down by Syrian troops on Sunday according to activists, and nine Syrian troops were killed in clashes with rebels in the northwestern Idlib province bordering Turkey.

Israel has said that Hezbollah along with Iran are providing weapons to their ally Syria to help suppress Syrian opposition activists calling for Assad’s ouster, in a conflict that has resulted in the deaths of more than 6,000 Syrians.

“The radical axis is trying to retain its power and as time passes, Iran and Hezbollah increase their efforts to help the Assad regime survive by providing knowledge, weaponry and other capabilities,” head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi said in January.

Hezbollah has been one of the few voices in the Arab world making statements in support of Assad and the Syrian regime.

Hamas – another Iran proxy in the region – quietly backed away from vocalizing support for the Assad regime, and many of the group’s officials have left their political bureau in Damascus for neighboring countries.

Yaakov Katz contributed to this report