Archive for February 3, 2012

Shin Bet chief: Iran trying to hit Israeli targets in response to attacks on nuclear scientists

February 3, 2012

Shin Bet chief: Iran trying to hit Israeli targets in response to attacks on nuclear scientists – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Yoram Cohen tells audience at a closed forum in Tel Aviv that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are working tirelessly to attack Israeli targets abroad in order to deter Israel.

By Barak Ravid

Iran is trying to strike Israeli targets around the world in a bid to stop the assassinations of its nuclear scientists, the head of the Shin Bet security service, Yoram Cohen, said Thursday.

Lecturing at a closed forum in Tel Aviv, Cohen said that Iran believes Israel is behind the attacks on its nuclear experts, which have killed four scientists since November 2010. “It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not that Israel took out the nuclear scientists,” Cohen said. “A major, serious country like Iran cannot let this go on. They want to deter Israel and extract a price so that decision makers in Israel think twice before they order an attack on an Iranian scientist.”

Yoram Cohen - Nir Keidar - 03022012 Shin Bet head Yoram Cohen
Photo by: Nir Keidar

Cohen said Iran was working very hard abroad through the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to hit Israeli targets.

“Over the past year three serious attacks were thwarted that were on the verge of being carried out,” the Shin Bet head said. “In Turkey against the general consul in Istanbul; in Baku, Azerbaijan; and two weeks ago in Thailand.”

Israel’s main dilemma in the coming year, Cohen added, was how to stop Palestinian terror groups in Gaza from obtaining rockets that could reach the metropolitan Tel Aviv area, but without becoming embroiled in a large-scale military action in Gaza.

Cohen said the terror groups’ main goal was to increase the range of their missiles to the greater Tel Aviv area, as well as their precision and the size of their warheads.

Cohen said missile experts from abroad were now in Gaza helping Hamas and Islamic Jihad increase the range of the missiles, but conceded that this put Israeli security experts in a difficult place.

Cohen also said that over the past 18 months, Iran has distanced itself from Hamas and invested more in Islamic Jihad in Gaza, because the Iranians “realized that Hamas has political considerations.”

The situation in the south has grown worse due to conditions in Sinai, said Cohen. “It’s no problem to shoot from Sinai at Israeli planes or ships,” he said. “At the moment, Egypt can’t take control of the situation because of internal difficulties.”

Israel is “in a dilemma over what to do if squads are spotted that are about to attack us from the area of a country with which we have a peace treaty, but has been having difficulty implementing their sovereignty,” Cohen said.

During the hour-long lecture, Cohen also discussed the attitude of the security establishment toward Israel’s Arab community.

“They are not a fifth column and we don’t consider them as such,” Cohen noted. “We relate to them as a Palestinian public that identifies with their brethren in Judea and Samaria.”

Cohen presented statistics showing that over the past year, there had been only three terror attacks in which Israeli Arabs had been involved, and that Israeli-Arab involvement in terror has declined.

“Their involvement in terror is not great,” Cohen said. “We arrested 20 to 30 Arab Israelis last year, as opposed to 2,000 Palestinians from Judea and Samaria. The problems with Arab Israelis are complex, but they are not security problems. They are alienation, integration, employment, poor municipal management, crime and drugs.

“The ideological leadership of the Arab public in Israel,” Cohen continued, “is much more extreme than the public, and sometimes pulls in directions with which the public does not identify.”

Cohen said another group that feels growing alienation from the state is the faction in the religious public that has lost confidence in its leadership. Cohen said these were a few dozen extremists, mainly from Yitzhar (referring to a West Bank settlement ).

“They have decided to take the road of terror,” Cohen said, adding that “because they can’t harm the government and the Israel Defense Forces, they lash out at Arabs and [their] sacred symbols. To their mind, the worse it gets, the more the government will have to think before it destroys a shack in a settlement. We treat this as terror.”

Cohen said the Shin Bet was trying to deal with Jewish terror “in the best way possible,” and noted that the past two months had seen a significant decline in violence by the group.

With regard to the Palestinians, Cohen said Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas did not want to negotiate with Israel, because Abbas believes the current government will offer no more than what he had received from previous regimes.

“They see what the boundaries of the prime minister’s flexibility are and who makes up the coalition, and they know the maximum this government will offer will not reach their minimum,” Cohen said. Therefore, he added, the international community was focusing its efforts on preventing escalation between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

‘Fight against Iran nukes hamstrung by cultural gaps’

February 3, 2012

‘Fight against Iran nukes hamstr… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By OREN KESSLER 02/03/2012 04:14
Veteran Pentagon analyst Harold Rhode says Iranians “want nothing more than to not be humiliated. Our job is to help them.”

Shahab-2 missile in Tehran [file] By REUTERS

The latest iteration of the Herzliya Conference convened this week under the heading “The Balance of Israel’s National Security.” But the bulk of attention attention at this year’s forum fell squarely on a single issue: Iran.

The West believes the Islamic Republic is pursuing nuclear weapons, and last week the European Union joined the United States and Britain in implementing biting sanctions against its oil trade. Given Tehran’s record of denying or belittling the Holocaust, the classical anti- Semitic motifs of its rhetoric and incessant threats to eliminate the Jewish state, it was altogether expected that no topic would pack the conference halls more than the Iran-Israel war of words.

One man well-placed to weigh in is Harold Rhode. In 2010, Rhode retired after decades as an analyst of the Islamic world’s culture and politics in the office of the US secretary of defense. He has a doctorate in Islamic studies and Middle East history from Columbia University and knows all of the Middle East’s four major languages: Arabic, Persian, Turkish and Hebrew.

The 62-year-old has traveled widely across the region, but Iran is particularly meaningful to him – in 1978, he found himself at a university there on the eve of the Islamic Revolution that ousted the Shah the following year.

Rhode has obvious affection for Iran’s culture and people, but pulls no punches in denouncing the tyrants who now run its government. He reserves the same treatment for feckless Westerners unwilling to confront the threat its nuclear program poses.

“The outside world talks, talks, talks about Iran – but enough talking,” he said in an interview on the sidelines at Herzliya. “At some point a decision has to be made. I’m not arguing for a specific decision, though personally I believe regime change is the only answer.”

He said there was no reason to publicize the West’s next move by talking about it unnecessarily.

“Let’s assume we know where a lot of the nuclear facilities are, and we have the technology to reach them. That can be done in various ways, but I don’t want to talk about them,” he said. “You don’t want to show your cards to the Iranians; you want to use your cards to win.”

Any successor regime, he said, would be preferable to the current theocracy. “One can’t think of anything more extreme.”

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he continued, “hated the people who are now in power. He kept them away from government because he feared they would lead Iran to its destruction.”

According to Rhode, Iran’s current leaders “believe that if they provoke a conflagration, their hidden imam, the mahdi, will return to save them. So Mutually Assured Destruction – MAD – that we used effectively with the Soviets is an incentive and an inducement, not a deterrent.”

Characteristically politically incorrect, he views the Iranian threat as too consequential for niceties. Contextual misunderstanding, he said, is leading the West to profoundly misunderstand the culture – the mindsets, religious sensibilities and ways of life – of Iran and the wider Islamic world.

“The Iranians think the way they do. Whatever we do, we have to use their context in which to understand it – they don’t think like Chinese or like Americans,” he said. “It is dangerous when you apply your mentality to try to understand another culture.”

In the Middle East, he said, “until you win, you show your enemies no mercy. But when you have them at your mercy, you must be magnanimous. There’s unfortunately no such thing as a win-win situation in the Middle East. Confidence-building measures are interpreted as weakness. You talk after you’ve won; if you do so beforehand, it is seen as weakness.”

In Iraq, he said, “we kept trying to appeal to Saddam. But in a culture based on honor and shame, he had no way to back down short of his own death,” Rhode said.

“In the languages of the Middle East, the concept for compromise doesn’t exist – at least not as we understand it…. Instead, one who compromises is said to have brought ’aib, or shame, on himself. That’s why the Middle East is always in a state of tension,” he explained.

“We talk about shalom and salaam and figure they mean the same thing,” he continued. “But in Arabic, ‘salaam’ is generally viewed to mean the joy one gets from submitting to Allah’s will through Islam. That’s not what peace is, to the best of my knowledge.”

When former prime minister David Ben-Gurion dealt with the Arabs, he said, “he always started by saying the following: ‘We are coming home. This is our homeland. We were thrown out of here 2,000 years ago. We’re not coming here – we are returning home. We realize there are other people here, and in a modern, democratic society they’re going to have equal rights. But this is ours – all of this is ours.”

Ben-Gurion was “willing to compromise on that, but he understood intuitively who and what he was, and he wasn’t ashamed to say so to the Arabs,” Rhode continued. “Someone who says that today is looked upon as a fascist right-wing extremist in Israeli politics.”

He referred to himself as “a nice liberal democrat.”

“But what do you do when the reality that you are experiencing contradicts what you have known to be true?” he asked. “You can either push it away, or say, ‘Oh my God, if this is true, what do I do?’ An honorable and smart person will say, ‘I need to reexamine my basis of understanding.’”

He recalled undergoing such a reflection process himself.

“I had the usual liberal view of ‘Come, let us reason together.’ That’s why I started studying these languages and cultures – I came here when I was 13 or 14 and I wanted to be the nice American boy to solve it all,” he remembers. “That’s what Americans do. Unfortunately Americans don’t understand some problems aren’t solvable. You’ll never make a woman think like a man or vice versa – it isn’t going to happen.”

The Iranian people, he concluded, “want nothing more than to not be humiliated – to be respected for the wonderfully ancient culture they’ve had for 2,500 years and to rejoin the community of nations. Our job is to help them.”

Analysis: An Iranian outing

February 3, 2012

Analysis: An Irani… JPost – Iranian Threat – Opinion & Analysis.

 

By YAAKOV KATZ 02/03/2012 00:57
The Herzliya Conference almost always provides news headlines, but this year it was Israel’s official Iranian outing.

Def. Minister Barak speaks at Herzliya Conference By Screenshot

The Herzliya Conference almost always provides news headlines, but this year it was Israel’s official Iranian outing.

Just a month ago, it would have been impossible to get IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz or head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi to speak about Iran in closed-door meetings. This week, they spoke openly and publicly about Iran’s nuclear program, what its status is, what its intentions are and the need for a viable and credible military option.

It is true that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has spoken before about the need to present a credible military threat to Iran, but it is something else to hear this from the men – Gantz, Kochavi and Defense Minister Ehud Barak – who would be in charge of carrying it out.

Barak was also more forthcoming on Iran than in previous public appearances, saying Thursday night that if sanctions didn’t work, Israel would need to take action.

When would this be? Barak did not specify, but according to a report in The Washington Post that came out Thursday afternoon, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta believes it could be as early as April, May or June.

How did Panetta reach this conclusion? Probably from his talks with Barak, whom he has met a number of times in Tel Aviv and Washington since he took up his post last July.

The main question, though, is what has suddenly changed, and why Israel’s entire top military and political leadership is speaking openly and publicly about Iran in the span of just 24 hours.

For whom are their threats meant? And if Israel was planning a strike in the near future, would it not make more sense to lead the Iranians to believe that it is not happening and to retain the operational element of surprise?

There are no clear answers, but a strong possibility is that Israel is trying as hard as possible to get the world to believe that it is serious about using a military option so it will instead keep on escalating sanctions. David Ignatius’s column in The Washington Post citing Panetta’s fears is an example of Israel’s possible success in doing just that.

In addition, Israel wants Iran to believe that a military strike is real in order to hopefully convince the regime that if it doesn’t stop its enrichment of uranium, it will be attacked. As Vice Premier Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday: A credible military threat could get the Iranians to alter their current course of action.

The reason Gantz, Barak, Kochavi and Ya’alon are all speaking so candidly about Iran now is mostly the timing.

Yes, Israel is satisfied with the European Union’s recent decision to ban Iranian oil, but it would like to see additional sanctions directed at the Central Bank of Iran, which could create a devastating economic blow from which Iran would have difficulty recovering.

The feeling within the government and the defense establishment is that the next few months are critical and provide the world with an opportunity that will likely not repeat itself – to stop Iran without using military force. For that to happen, though, Israel needs to talk like it is going to use military force.

The truth is that if all else fails, it likely will one day.

There is a consensus within the Israeli political and defense establishment that a nuclear Iran would pose an existential threat to Israel and is something that in one way or another needs to be stopped.

Israel prefers not to have to attack Iran for the obvious reason – so as not to face the war that will most likely ensue. Nevertheless, the consensus is that the war will not be as devastating as some former officials like ex-Mossad chief Meir Dagan make it out to be, and that the price it will pay for stopping Iran will be less than the potential price it could pay if Iran succeeds in going nuclear.