WarSclerotic

Syrian troops battle defectors near Damascus in fresh assault – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Offensive comes as the United Nations Security Council debates draft resolution calling for Bashar Assad to step down.

By The Associated Press 

Syrian troops battled army defectors in a string of towns in the mountains overlooking Damascus on Wednesday in a new assault to crush rebellious areas around the capital, activists said.

The battles in a mountain valley came after regime forces succeeded in largely retaking control of suburbs on the eastern side of the city in an offensive the past week that fueled some of the bloodiest days of the nearly 11-month-old uprising. More than 30 people were killed around the country Wednesday, activists said.

	Syrian soldiers who defected to join the Free Syrian Army are seen in Kafar Batna, near Damascus, January 31, 2012.
	Photo by: Reuters

Activists say President Bashar Assad’s forces have intensified their crackdown in hopes of silencing protesters and the army dissidents who have joined them as the United Nations Security Council debates a draft resolution demanding that Assad step down.

On Tuesday, Western powers and Arab countries at the U.N. sought to overcome Russia’s opposition to the measure. Addressing the Security Council, U.S.Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton tried to allay Moscow’s concerns that the resolution could open the door to eventual military intervention in Syria, as took place in Libya last year.

“I know that some members here may be concerned that the Security Council is headed toward another Libya,” she said. “That is a false analogy.”

“It is time for the international community to put aside our own differences and send a clear message of support to the people of Syria,” Clinton said.

Russia has stood by Assad as he tries to crush an uprising that began last March. In October, Moscow vetoed the first Security Council attempt to condemn Syria’s crackdown and has shown little sign of budging in its rejection of the new measure. The latest resolution would demand Assad carry out an Arab League peace plan by which he would hand his powers to the vice president and allow formation of a unity government to pave the way for elections.

On Wednesday, shelling and machine gun fire rattled in towns along the Wadi Barada, a valley in the mountains a few miles (kilometers) northwest of Damascus near the Lebanese border, according to online video posted by activists.

The valley leads to the mountain resort town of Zabadani, an opposition stronghold that has been under the control of rebel soldiers and protesters for several weeks.

At least 21 civilians were killed as government forces battered Deir Qanoun, Ein al-Fija and other towns in the valley, and six army defectors were killed in fighting, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, put the death toll at 29 civilians in the valley. It said 14 fighters from the Free Syrian Army, made up of army defectors, were killed in fighting around the country. It was impossible to reconcile the two group’s figures.

The fact that rebels made it to the doorstep of Damascus, the seat of Assad’s power, was a dangerous development for the regime. Rebel soldiers had grown bolder, setting up checkpoints and protecting protesters in suburbs surrounding Damascus.

A military offensive largely succeeded in crushing the remaining resistance on the eastern side of the capital by Tuesday.

But those areas were hardly quiet Wednesday: Troops raided homes in several of those suburbs, searching for activists, killing at least two young men. A 3-year-old girl died in the suburb of Arbeen from gunfire as troops stormed neighborhoods, the Observatory said.

In the central city of Homs, one of the biggest flashpoints of the uprising and a scene of daily fighting, government troops shelled buildings and fought defectors in several neighborhoods. At least eight residents were killed, the Observatory said.

Regime troops were also fighting defectors Wednesday in the northeastern region of Idlib and the southern area of Daraa, activists said. A large force of armored vehicles and troops stormed into the town of Khirbet Ghazali, outside Daraa, opening fire and storming homes, the Observatory and LCC reported.

The U.N. estimated several weeks ago that more than 5,400 people have been killed in the Syrian government crackdown, but has not been able to update the figure. The death toll from Monday’s offensive in the suburbs was around 100 people, making it among the bloodiest days since the uprising began, according to the two activist groups.

The UN Security Council resolution would give Assad 15 days to start implementing the Arab peace plan and halt the crackdown, otherwise the Council would consider “further measures.”

That would likely mean economic and other sanctions. But Moscow says it could lay the groundwork for later military intervention. Russia, a longtime ally of Assad, has insisted the crisis can be resolved by negotiations and that UN action thwarts any dialogue.

Arab officials joined Western countries in trying to persuade Russia to back the measure.

Deputy Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed bin Helli said Wednesday the League sought the UN resolution to back its peace plan and boost an Arab solution for the crisis, not to bring in international military action.

The League “is still committed … to solving this crisis in the Arab framework, away from any outside intervention,” he said during a visit to Baghdad.

Moscow’s stance is motivated in part by its strategic and defense ties, including weapons sales, with Syria. Russia also rejects what it sees as a a world order dominated by the U.S.

‘Iran will be able to make nucle… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Iranian Websites Publish Threats against U.S. Targets in Gulf.

Paul Heroux: Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Slowly Boiling Us?.

Huffington Post

Tuesday’s revelation by the U.S. that Iran is looking to sponsor terror attacks inside the US comes on the heels of Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and curtail oil sales to various member nations of the EU, which also comes on the heels of new U.S. and EU sanctions on Iran. Additionally, the U.S., along with Britain and France, have deployed their navies to the Persian Gulf as a warning to Iran that Iranian threats to the world oil supply will not be tolerated, just as its nuclear program intransigence won’t be tolerated either.

The question we should all have is: where is this standoff going? War? A peaceful resolution? A continued standoff with no end in sight?

One the one hand, after the debacle in Iraq where we believed that Iraq was in possession of WMD and the proof could come in the form of a mushroom cloud has many people throughout the world concerned that this could be Middle East WMD 2.0. On the other hand, the IAEA has said that Iran’s nuclear program seems to be intended for military purposes, a charge that Iran has repeatedly denied.

The red line that the U.S. says that Iran should not cross is to enrich Uranium to 90%, which is weapons grade. Typically anything 20% or lower is for energy purposes. This is where the importance of the IAEA comes in; monitoring Iran’s program and enrichment is essential to knowing Iran’s intentions. As such, another red line that must not be crossed is for Iran to expel the IAEA.

Other Options
Sanctions combined with diplomacy is the most promising way forward. But this won’t likely be successful if done by the U.S., EU and IAEA alone. China, India and Russia are very important to this process. China is the largest consumer of Iranian oil, and India is a large partner as well. Russia does not have the same level of antagonism with Iran as does much of the Western world so it too could be a voice of reason from the point of view of Iran’s leadership.

The benefit of sanctions combined with diplomacy is that it keeps pressure on Iran, which admittedly has not changed Iran’s behavior but it has hurt the credibility of the government within Iran. Iran faces 11.8% inflation, growth of about 1% and unemployment over 12%. Put these factors together and you have an unhappy citizenry. The Green Revolution in 2009 did not go anywhere but with the Arab Spring producing change in other Middle East nations, the people of Iran are likely to put pressure on the government to negotiate over its nuclear program. Iran has the right under international law to a peaceful nuclear program (Iran signed the NPT) but considering that it is a very little step to go from nuclear energy to nuclear weapons has a lot of people worried. This boils down to an issue of trust.

Stopping Iran Through Military Force
Military force must be the last option, but unfortunately an option that should not be taken off the table. When Israel struck Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2006, respectively, the strikes were effective in that neither country developed a nuclear program. However, had Saddam not invaded Kuwait in 1990, he would likely have had a nuclear weapon capability in 1992. In other words: from this point of view, the world was lucky that Saddam brought about the demise of his own nuclear program by invading Kuwait. So, striking Iran’s nuclear facilities could set it back a long time, which is good but there is some down side, too.

The down side to an attack on Iran’s program is that it would immediately unify Iranian citizens behind the government that the citizens are already angry with. The reason for this: Iran is a very nationalistic country. Moreover, attacking Iran’s nuclear sites could also send the price of oil up to $150 a barrel, which would likely send the world back into a recession. And finally, an attack on Iran would virtually guarantee that once Iran’s nuclear program is back up, it will certainly be for weapon purposes. There is no good option.

A Nuclear Iran
Iran has the ability to produce a nuclear weapon in that the knowledge is there and this knowledge cannot be undone. The next thing we need to ask is: what constitutes a weapon? Is it enrichment to 90%? Is it having all of the parts ready to assemble but not actually assembling a weapon? The line blurs as to what would constitute a ‘weaponized nuclear Iran’.

If Iran did possess a nuclear weapon(s), the argument that it would start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East might not necessarily hold water. Israel already has a nuclear program yet, Saudi Arabia does not. On the other hand, Syria and Iraq did at one time have a program, which could be viewed as an arms race with Israel. But these were already belligerent countries; Saudi Arabia is not. And the future position of Egypt is unknown at this point. Turkey is unlikely to pursue a nuclear program since it is, although not perfect, one of the more responsible and reasonable governments in the Middle East.

If Iran possessed nuclear weapons, such a responsibility might make Iran mature as a responsible international player, but that is unlikely. Iran is likely to continue to have an antagonistic policy towards the West, a stance that is reciprocated towards Iran.

The Way Forward
A combination of diplomacy and sanctions are the best way forward. The economic and political pressure should be kept on Iran until it can be verified that the program is not going to become a weapon program; this is where the importance of the IAEA comes into play. Sanctions are causing its citizens to come to believe that the nuclear program is just not worth it. The leadership may feel different. This is the tension we want.

While the West could be all wrong about Iran’s intentions, the evidence uncovered by the IAEA does not suggest this to be the case.

The worse case scenario is the following — there is a story of the frog in the boiling water. If you throw a frog into boiling water, it will jump out. But if you slowly turn up the heat as the frog is in cool water, it doesn’t even feel that it is slowly boiling and it won’t jump out when the water fully boils. While we should not put frogs in boiling water, the real moral of the story is that we should all be concerned that we are slowly being boiled by Iran.

PAUL HEROUX previously lived and worked in the Middle East and was a senior analyst at the Institute for Defense and Disarment Studies. He has a masters in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a Master’s from the Harvard School of Government. Paul is a candidate for US Congress from Massachusetts’s 4th Congressional District and can be reached at PaulHeroux.MPA@gmail.com.

Feinstein offers peak at U.S.-Israeli talks on Iran – Checkpoint Washington – The Washington Post.

Ahmadinejad wants to more than double Iran… JPost – Middle East.

By Reuters

Israel Hayom | Mossad, CIA held talks on Iran, Petraeus reveals.

Israel’s Mossad chief held a secret meeting with the director of the CIA in Washington over the weekend to discuss a potential military strike against Iran.

The sit-down between Tamir Pardo, head of the Mossad, and CIA director David Petraeus was not announced in Israel, and only became public knowledge in the U.S. on Tuesday, when Petraeus told the Senate Intelligence Committee that he met with Pardo to discuss the Iranian situation.

The focus of the meeting was reportedly Iran’s “immunity zone” — the amount of time Iran needs to hide its centrifuges in a place that will be impenetrable to Israeli air attack. For Israel, when Iran becomes capable of burying its nuclear arms out of striking reach, a red line will have been crossed.

The Prime Minister’s Office – which is responsible for speaking to the media about the Mossad and its activities – refused to comment on Pardo’s meeting with Petraeus.

According to the Wall Street Journal, committee chairman Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif). – who also mentioned Pardo’s meeting with Petraeus – told the committee, “I think 2012 will be a critical year for convincing or preventing Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon.”

Meetings between the U.S. and the Mossad are usually kept secret, but Feinstein’s conversation with the committee was not only public, but televised.

The U.S. is now concerned with more than just Iran’s nuclear ambitions. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday that Iran is ready to carry out terrorist attacks within the U.S., due to increasing U.S. and European pressure and sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Clapper – who addressed the Senate Intelligence Committee alongside Petraeus – recalled the thwarted Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador in the U.S.

Clapper reportedly said, “The 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States shows that some Iranian officials – probably including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – have changed their calculus and are now more willing to conduct an attack in the United States in response to real or perceived US actions that threaten the regime. We are also concerned about Iranian plotting against US or allied interests overseas,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

Clapper went on to elaborate on the current intelligence assessment concerning Iran, saying, “We assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

According to Clapper, Iran is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities. “Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so. These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, if it so chooses.”

Concerning U.S. cooperation with Israel on the Iranian issue, Clapper said “We’re doing a lot with the Israelis, working together with them. And of course for them, this is, as they have characterized, an existential threat.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s state-controlled Fars news agency reported on Tuesday that Iran completed a “constructive round of discussions” with International Atomic Energy Agency officials currently visiting Iran to discuss its nuclear program.

A senior Iranian official told the official news agency IRNA, however, that the IAEA officials did not visit Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel Hayom | Israel warns against Syrian WMD transfer to Hezbollah.

U.N. Security Council at standstill on Syria, reports of deaths rise – CNN.com.

United Nations (CNN) — At least 48 people were killed across Syria Wednesday, opposition activists said, as diplomats at the United Nations prepare to debate once again how to respond to the mounting crisis in the country.

The number killed in Wadi Barada, in the Damascus suburbs, rose to 21 according to the Local Coordination Committees of Syria, an opposition group that organizes and documents demonstrations. The other deaths occurred elsewhere in the region around Damascus and in Homs, Daraa, Idlib and Qamishli, the LCC said.

The latest casualties include six army defectors who were killed during clashes with government forces in the Damascus suburbs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, another opposition activist group.

Opposition reports indicate the Free Syrian Army rebels are making serious inroads, including capturing and blowing up armored vehicles in their strongholds of Homs and Rastan, while government forces have reasserted their control over Damascus suburbs such as Saqba and Arbeen.

The reports come a day after members of the U.N. Security Council failed to reach an agreement on a resolution that would call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Al-Assad has faced growing international pressure to stop a bloody crackdown on dissidents seeking his ouster and democratic elections.

Arab and Western diplomats voiced their support for the draft resolution, but representatives from Russia and China slammed it as meddlesome.

More effective than the resolution, Russia and China said, would be the fostering of dialogue within the country.

“The council cannot impose the parameters for an internal political settlement,” said Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s U.N. ambassador. “We are convinced that at a time of intense internal political crisis, the role of the international community should not be one of exacerbating conflict, nor meddling by use of economic sanctions or military force.”

The Security Council is considering a draft resolution proposed by Morocco that calls for al-Assad to transfer power to his vice president. Both China and Russia appear poised to veto it.

The resolution supports “full implementation” of an Arab League report that called on Syria to form a unity government within two months but stopped short of supporting military intervention or economic sanctions.

Russia — which, like China, is one of the five veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council — has said it is concerned about Syrian civil war and does not want al-Assad pushed out of power. It has proposed its own draft resolution that assigns equal blame for the violence on both al-Assad and the opposition.

But Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, said “the crisis started with absolutely peaceful demonstrations.”

He added: “The government killing machine continues effectively unabated.”

In October, Russia and China issued a rare double-veto of a resolution that lacked sanctions but would have condemned the violence in Syria. This latest draft also lacks sanctions, but it is tougher than the October version, which said nothing about a transfer of power.

Rights group Amnesty International urged Russia Wednesday to rethink its opposition to the latest draft.

“Russia’s threats to abort a binding U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria for the second time are utterly irresponsible. Russia bears a heavy responsibility for allowing the brutal crackdown on legitimate dissent in Syria to continue unchecked,” said Jose Luis Diaz, Amnesty International’s representative to the United Nations.

“Russia must work with other Security Council members to pass a strong and legally binding resolution that will help to end the bloodshed and human rights violations in Syria once and for all.”

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil el-Araby called for free elections and a multi-party system. “Do not let the Syrian people down in its plight,” he said.

Meanwhile, Syria’s envoy to the United Nations said the country is the victim of a systematic campaign to distort facts. The Arab League, he said, is interfering with Syrian affairs and has ignored reports from observers inside the country.

“Syria is going through decisive challenges in its history,” Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari said. “We want this stage to be through the will of our people, not through the will of anyone else.”

“That organization (the Arab League) is not speaking on behalf of all Arabs right now. Without Syria, there is no Arab League,” he said.

The Security Council has been unable to agree on any resolution on Syria.

The Syrian regime is a major weapons client for Russia. Analysts with Max-Security Solutions, a security consulting firm based in Israel, said Monday in The New York Times that recent Russian arms sales to Syria are worth $4 billion and that Russian business investments in Syria amount to nearly $20 billion.

A Congressional Research Service report in 2008 said the two countries had “concluded several significant arms deals.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the Security Council Tuesday that “evidence is clear that Assad’s forces are initiating nearly all the attacks that kill civilians, but as more citizens take up arms to resist the regime’s brutality, violence is increasingly likely to spiral out of control.”

She said it is crucial that the international community not embolden “the dictator.”

“At the end of the day, every member of that Security Council has a choice to make,” she told reporters. “If you do not choose to try to stand on the side of the Syrian people, then you are standing on the side of the continuing killing and abuses that are carried out every single day.”

Clinton’s support of the draft resolution was echoed by British Foreign Secretary William Hague and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe.

Clinton has been trying for days to reach her Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, to lobby him on a U.N. resolution on Syria. Lavrov, on a visit to Australia, apparently has been avoiding her.

Russia’s Ria Novosti news agency described the foreign minister as “amazed by the hullabaloo” over his failure to talk with Clinton.

Lavrov, the agency said, “was busy negotiating with his Australian partners.”

At least 7,100 people — including 461 children — have died since the start of the Syrian anti-government uprising in March, the LCC said Tuesday.

The United Nations estimated in December that more than 5,000 people have died since March, though it has also said it has been unable to update that figure because of the situation on the ground.

CNN cannot independently confirm opposition or government reports from Syria because access to the country is limited.

Israel and US Team Up to Export Arrow to S. Korea – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

An experiment on the Arrow

IDF Spokesperson Unit

Israel and the United States have teamed up to export the Arrow anti-missile system to South Korea for $1 billion. Israel denies the report by Defense News.

If the deal goes through, it will be the first export by Boeing and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), with India another potential customer.

The report maintains that both the American and Israel governments have given the green light for exporting the Arrow system to South Korea despite the Defense Ministry’s denial.

“There’s still a long way to go, but we and our Israeli partners are working very persistently to be able to provide this phenomenal capability to South Korea, an important US ally,” Boeing Roger Krone executive told Defense News.

Exports of that magnitude would improve Israel’s export trade and strengthen the Israeli economy and the shekel, which has lost approximately 10 percent of its value the past year.

Boeing and IAI last week announced they are expanding their partnership beyond development of the Arrow systems, but they did not provide details except to state they aim “to explore and develop new opportunities in the missile defense arena.”

The magazine added, “While Israel is pushing ahead with the sale of the Arrow, the South Korean government has made no effort to introduce a high-altitude interceptor because of fears over potential backlash from neighboring countries, including China. South Korea is also preparing to build its own low-tier and medium-range missile defense systems.”

Now that the Pentagon is willing export the Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, India is a prime potential customer,

U.S. Asst. Secretary of Defense Robert Scher told an Indian news agency, “We are really open to it. This is something we ask them if they are interested in.”

“If the U.S. government allows ballistic-missile defense exports to India, it will represent a very inviting prospect for the IAI-Boeing team,” former Israeli Missile Defense Organization director Uzi Rubin told Defense News.

“I don’t see the US refusing us the opportunity to export Arrow if the other US systems are allowed to compete.”