WarSclerotic

Arab League Says Syria Monitors Helping, Activists – NYTimes.com.

By REUTERS

BEIRUT (Reuters) – The head of the Arab League said its peace monitors were helping to ease a violent crackdown on anti-government protests in Syria but activists said the organization was being manipulated by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

Nabil Elaraby, Secretary-General of the 22-member Arab League, said Syria’s military had withdrawn from residential areas and was on the outskirts of the cities, although gunfire continued and snipers were still a threat.

“The latest telephone report said there is gunfire from different places, which makes it hard to say who is shooting who,” Elaraby said in Cairo Monday.

“Gunfire should be stopped and there are snipers,” he said. “We call upon the Syrian government to fully commit to what it promised.”

Activists said at least 12 people were killed across the country Monday. The grassroots Local Coordination Committees said the Arab League monitors were unable to end the violence or reach an independent assessment of its causes.

“The Arab League has fallen victim to the regime’s typical traps in which observers have no choice but to witness regime-staged events and move about the country only with the full knowledge of the regime,” the LCC said in response to Elaraby.

“This has rendered the observers unable to work or move independently or in a neutral manner.”

Army defectors, whose armed insurgency has threatened to overshadow the peaceful popular uprising, captured dozens of members of the security forces by seizing two checkpoints on Monday, the opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Army defectors also clashed with security forces at a third checkpoint, killing and wounding an unspecified number of troops loyal to Assad, it said.

Assad is struggling to defeat a popular uprising and avoid becoming the latest leader to be toppled by “Arab Spring” revolutions, after those of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

After nearly 10 months of violence in which the United Nations says more than 5,000 people have been killed, mostly unarmed civilians, an Arab League monitoring mission has spent the past week assessing Assad’s compliance with a peace plan.

PEACE PLAN

The League’s plan calls for Assad to pull troops and tanks from the streets, free detainees and talk to his opponents.

Elaraby said the monitors had secured the release of 3,484 prisoners and succeeded in getting food supplies into Homs, one of the centers of the violence. “Give the monitoring mission the chance to prove its presence on the ground,” he said.

But many Syrian opposition activists are skeptical that the mission can put real pressure on Assad to halt the violence.

Sunday, the Arab Parliament, an 88-member committee of delegates from each of the League’s member states, called for the monitors to leave Syria, saying their mission was providing cover for unabated violence and abuses by the government.

Five people were killed by gunfire in Homs Monday, and the bodies of another two were handed over to their families, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Five more were killed in Damascus province and two other people were shot dead in Idlib, it said.

TAKING RISKS

Kinan Shami, a member of the Syrian Revolution Coordinating Union activists’ group, said from Damascus that people were taking huge risks by gathering in cities where Arab League monitors were expected, in the hope of talking to them.

“People expected them in Daraya … on New Year’s Day and thousands went to the main square, raised the Independence Flag on a mast and gathered around it. Security forces shot at them and killed two protesters,” Shami said.

“The people are trying to show the monitors the repression and are risking their lives to meet them because everywhere they go the monitors are surrounded by security… Other than getting arrested and beaten or killed, they could easily face endless counts of treason and communicating with foreign powers.”

But Issam Ishak, a senior member of the main opposition Syrian National Council, said the monitors must be given a chance. “Their presence is helping further erode the fear factor and is encouraging the expansion of the protests.”

The reported attacks on military checkpoints came three days after the anti-government Free Syrian Army said it had ordered its fighters to stop offensive operations while it tried to arrange a meeting with the Arab League delegates.

Rami Abdelrahman, director of the Observatory, said Monday’s operation had taken place in the northern province of Idlib. It was not immediately clear how many people had been killed or captured by the rebels.

The government bars most foreign journalists from operating in Syria, making it difficult to verify witness accounts. Assad blames the unrest on foreign-backed armed Islamists who officials say have killed 2,000 security personnel.

The state news agency SANA said a worker at a school in the city of Hama had been killed by armed men who captured her three days ago after her husband, who worked at the same school, refused their demands that he leave his job.

SANA also said a journalist working for state radio had died Monday from wounds sustained when gunmen shot him several days ago in Daraya, in Damascus province.

‘Iran warns departed US carrier … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    TEHRAN – Iran will take action if a US aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises returns to the Gulf, the state news agency quoted army chief Ataollah Salehi as saying on Tuesday.

“Iran will not repeat its warning … the enemy’s carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,” Salehi told IRNA.

“I advise, recommend and warn them (the Americans) over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once,” the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salehi as saying.

Salehi did not name the aircraft carrier or give details of the action Iran might take if it returned.

Iran completed 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf on Monday, and said during the drills that if foreign powers imposed sanctions on its crude exports it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world’s traded oil is shipped.

The US Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, said it would not allow shipping to be disrupted in the strait.

Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during its naval drill, flexing its military muscle in the face of mounting Western pressure over its controversial nuclear programme.

Iran also said it had no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz but had carried out “mock” exercises on shutting the strategic waterway.

Tehran denies Western accusations that it is secretly trying to build atomic bombs, saying it needs nuclear technology to generate electricity.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action against Iran if diplomacy fails to resolve the Islamic state’s nuclear row with the West.

The European Union is considering following the United States in banning imports of Iranian crude oil. US President Barack Obama signed new sanctions against Iran into law on Saturday, stepping up the pressure by adding sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran’s central bank.

Conflicting reports on withdrawal of Syrian military from cities as death toll mounts.

Al Arabiya

Tuesday, 03 January 2012

Demonstrators in Marrat Hrama hold posters that read: To the Pharaohs of Arab League, no blessing on you and your efforts. (Reuters)

inShare

Israel worried Syria weapons going to terroris… JPost – Defense.

    Concern is growing in Israel over the possibility that Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons will fall into terrorist hands amid predictions that President Bashar Assad’s regime will fall in the coming weeks.

Syria is believed to have one of the most extensive chemical weapon arsenals in the world, reportedly including sarin, VX and mustard gas.

The concern partially stems from Western intelligence indicating that advanced weaponry has already been moved out of Syria by Hezbollah.

“The same could also potentially happen with chemical weapons,” a senior defense official explained.

While predicting Assad’s regime would fall within weeks, Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned on Monday of the new security challenges the IDF would face if that occurs. He said more than 5,000 civilians had been killed in fighting in Syria and that the military was having difficulty quelling protests and preventing soldiers from defecting to resistance forces.

“It is difficult to know what will happen the day after the Assad family [leaves] but either way it will be a hard blow to the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah alliance,” Barak told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Concern over the stability of Syria’s chemical arsenal comes at a time when only about 60 percent of Israelis are in possession of gas masks. The IDF is currently lacking NIS 1.2 billion to complete the production and distribution of gas masks to the rest of the public.

The Home Front Command and Defense Ministry are in talks with the Treasury in an effort to obtain the remaining required budget. Last month, The Jerusalem Post reported that the distribution of the gas masks will be suspended in February if the funds are not allocated beforehand.

Amid the growing instability in Syria, the IDF’s Northern Command has drawn up a number of operational responses to a wide range of scenarios that could evolve along the northern front.

There is concern, for example, that the IDF will face low-scale and isolated attacks along the border, such as Syrian soldiers opening fire into Israel. The main objective set down by OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Yair Golan is to respond based on circumstances but to also make a strong attempt to prevent an isolated incident from escalating into a larger conflict.

Israel Defends against Missiles with SMS – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

SMS: Missile blast. Take cover

Israel news photo: IDF

Israel will soon deploy a country-wide SMS messaging system that warns citizens of incoming missiles – in case they are not intercepted.

The Home Front Command conducted tests on Sunday of a text message system that will warn residents in real time, according to location, of incoming missiles and rockets.

Sunday’s test was conducted in the central part of the country in four languages – Hebrew, Arabic, English and Russian.

The system was first tested during the “Turning Point 5” civil defense drill, earlier this year, when which alerts were sent to residents of a number of localities in Israel.

The Turning Point 5 drill last June involved 250 soldiers participating in a test run in the Gaza Belt area.

The test was interrupted because Partner Communications, which operates the Orange cell phone system, complained that the exercise’s alert system did not work on its Samsung C5130 phones.

The SMS system gives an early warning to residents in emergencies, including those other than incoming missiles. The new but expensive Iron Dome system also is being expanded to defend citizens against incoming missiles.

It has had a high success rate, but its drawbacks are that every city needs its own system, which is very expensive. Each missile costs approximately $100,000, while a Kassam short-range rocket costs terrorists less than $800 to assemble.

Hamas terrorists began producing Kassam missiles after the start of the Second Intifada, also known as the Oslo War, 11 years ago.

The first rocket it fired had a range of only two miles, but the missiles’ range has been improved, and they can now reach urban centers such as Ashkelon.

The only previous warning system that the IDF has developed is the Code Red system, a siren that is sounded after a Kassam launch is detected, giving residents of areas close to Gaza only 15 seconds to run for cover.

Barak: Cracks in US Mideast Hegemony – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Ehud Barak

Israel news photo: Flash 90

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Monday that there are “cracks” in the “dominance and hegemony” of the United States in the Middle East. He spoke before the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, where he gave an analysis of the strategic, political and security situation at the beginning of the new civil year.

Barak said that the economic crisis in the United States and an “overloaded table” of internal problems diminishes the American’s will and capability to project strength. Therefore, there are cracks in its hegemony and dominance in the Middle East. Still, he said, the US continues to be the sole superpower.

There is potential for new challenges along the northern border and in the south, he said. The Sinai could turn into a terror hotbed. Loss of control by Bashar Assad in Syria could spill over and affect the Golan Heights and “larger areas,” he warned – presumably meaning Lebanon.

The so-called “Arab spring” events have influenced the Iranian regime, he added. Iran is worried about losing its strategic tie to Syria and is also concerned about “internal effects” in Iran as a result of the Syrian uprising.

Barak estimated that the chance for “crippling sanctions” on Iran is low but said that the recent pronouncements by the US Defense Secretary and the Head of Joint Chiefs of Staff “raise the bar” of pressure in Iran.

Barak: Assad ‘Only Has Weeks’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Ehud Barak

Israel news photo: Defense Ministry

According to Defense Minister Ehud Barak the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has only ”a few weeks” before it loses control of the already tempestuous country.

”The Assad family has no more than a few weeks to remain in control in Syria,” Barak told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense committee on Monday.

”There is no possibility in the current situation of evaluating what will happen the day after Bashar’s fall,” he said.

Barak warned the committee the fall of the Assad family could have implications for the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

”In the north, there may be possible implications from Syria on the Golan Heights and a broader area as the result of the loss of control,” he said on Monday in a separate statement released by his office.

Syrian opposition leaders have said that Israel will “likely remain an enemy” in the eyes of any government they head.

Assad has been at the helm of a a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy activists that UN Human Rights officials estimate has killed more than 5000 civilians since ‘Arab Spring’ protests erupted in Syria early in 2011.

But his embattled regime has become increasingly unstable at the now 10-month protest movement has been augmented not only by broad Western and Arab League sanctions, but a growing armed insurgency by the Syrian Free Army.

Led by dissident Syrian generals given safe-haven by Turkey, the SFA has launched a persistent and deadly gueurilla campaign against Assad’s forces as its ranks have swelled to an estimated 20,000 army defectors.

Syrian officials say some 2,000 security personnel have been killed in the unrest, mostly by “foreign backed terrorists.”

Assad has asserted for months that the radical Sunni Al Qaeda terror organization has found a home among elements of the Syrian opposition.

Recent reports that several al-Qaeda front groups in Lebanon have been funneling arms to armed opposition groups in Syria have become a major point of contention in Beirut’s halls of power.

Assad and his Hizbullah allies have insinuated Lebanese opposition figures who recently met with Saudi officials in Riyadh are linked to anti-Assad insurgents in Syria.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have sought to isolate Assad as a means of undercutting rival Iran’s axis of influence in the region.

IMRA – Monday, January 2, 2012 Iran currency slips to record low (30% below official rate) after new US sanctions.

Iran’s currency, the rial, slipped to a record low on Sunday, the day after the United States imposed extra sanctions targeting the Islamic republic’s central bank and financial sector.

The state news agency IRNA and an Iranian website tracking the currency said the rial’s street value at money changers’ slid to around 16,000 to the
dollar.

That represented a huge difference with the official central bank rate of
11,179 rials to the dollar.

On Saturday, US President Barack Obama signed the new sanctions into law.

The measures aim to further squeeze Iran’s crucial oil revenues, most of
which are processed by the central bank, by making foreign firms choose
between doing business with the Islamic republic or the United States.

They were being imposed as part of a Western push to force Iran to halt its
nuclear programme, which the United States and its allies believe is being
used to develop atomic weapons despite Tehran’s denials.

Iran, the second-biggest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, depends on oil sales for 80 percent of its foreign revenues.

The European Union is mulling an embargo on buying Iranian oil, on which a decision could be announced at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting at the end of the month.

Iranian leaders and military officials have warned that extra Western
sanctions could push them to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the
entrance to the Gulf.

Twenty percent of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making it the
“most important choke point” globally, according to the US Energy
Information Administration.

Iranian naval forces are to complete 10 days of war games near the strait on Monday with an exercise practising tactics to close the channel if they are so ordered, the ISNA news agency quoted spokesman Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi as saying.

Barak: Iran worried about unrest in Arab world – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak tells Knesset committee that Iran fears internal turmoil inspired by Arab Spring uprisings; says Israel must be ready for all developments.

By Haaretz

The Arab Spring is having an effect on the Iranian regime, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Monday while briefing members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee members on changes taking place in the Middle East.

Barak noted that Iran is troubled by the recent developments in Syria, and especially by the possibility of losing its alliance with the Assad regime.

Barak also stated that Iran is worried that the recent unrest in the Arab world may lead to similar turmoil among the Iranian population, and that Israel’s security forces must be ready for any sort of development.

“Even those who are not security experts understand that resources and attentiveness are necessary in order to respond to regional challenges,” Barak said.

During the meeting, Barak emphasized that the Iranian nuclear program is “progressing despite the setbacks, sanctions and the external pressures,” but that the likelihood of the world adopting “paralyzing sanctions” against the regime is fairly low.

Furthermore, Barak noted that in light of Egypt’s Islamic parties making major strides in the first round of elections, the Egyptian Parliament will “implement an anti-Israel agenda,” although there is no credible threat of Egypt canceling its peace treaty with Israel.

Arab League chief: There is no doubt Syrian forces are killing civilians – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Nabil Elaraby says protesters are being shot by Assad forces despite presence of Arab monitors, calls for a complete cease-fire.

By Jack Khoury, Reuters and The Associated Press

Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby said Monday that there is no doubt that Syrian forces are killing civilians, a week after Arab monitors were sent into the country to check whether President Bashar Assad is launching a violent crackdown on protesters.

Elaraby, addressing a news conference on Monday, said that Syrian forces continue to shoot protesters despite the presence of monitors from the organization and calls for a complete cease-fire.

	Demonstrators burning an image of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration after Friday prayers in Baba Amro in Homs, December 16, 2011
	Photo by: Reuters

He also called on the opposition and ordinary Syrians to aid the observers by sending them names of relatives or friends they think are detained.

He said that the Arab League monitors will continue their mission in Syria, and 30 more observers will join the team. He said the purpose of their mission is to examine whether Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is using violence to fight against the protesters and whether the regime in Syria allows non-violent protesters.

Meanwhile, armed Syrian rebels captured dozens of members of the security forces by seizing two military checkpoints in the northern province of Idlib on Monday, the opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

It said the army deserters also clashed with security forces at a third checkpoint, killing and wounding an unspecified number of troops loyal to President Bashar Assad.

Rami Abdelrahman, director of the British-based Observatory, said Monday’s operation took place in the Jabal al-Zawiyah region of Idlib. It was not immediately clear how many people had been killed or captured by the rebels, he said.

At least 150 people have been killed since the observers began their mission last Tuesday to verify the compliance of President Bashar Assad’s regime with an Arab League peace plan aimed at ending the regime’s 9-month-old crackdown on anti-government protesters. Assad agreed to the plan on Dec. 19.