Archive for January 1, 2012

AFP: Iran defiant as US unleashes new sanctions

January 1, 2012

AFP: Iran defiant as US unleashes new sanctions.

TEHRAN — Iran defiantly announced on Sunday that it had tested a new missile and made an advance in its nuclear programme after the United States unleashed extra sanctions that sent its currency to a record low.

The developments raised the stakes in a budding confrontation between the longtime foes, as concerns mounted that Iran could make good on threats to close the world’s most important oil route, the Strait of Hormuz, if it is backed into a wall.

Ten days of Iranian naval war games are to climax on Monday with vessels practising “a new tactical formation” to be used to close the strait if so ordered, navy spokesman Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.

On Sunday, “for the first time, an anti-radar medium-range missile was successfully fired during the massive naval drills,” Mousavi said, according to state media.

The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation followed that up with its own announcement that its scientists “tested the first nuclear fuel rod produced from uranium ore deposits inside the country.”

The statement suggested Iran had made progress in becoming a self-sufficient nuclear nation and had technological prowess the West thought it lacked.

It also fed into broader Western fears that Iran’s real aim is to develop a capability to enrich uranium to the 90 percent level necessary for a nuclear bomb, an ambition Tehran strongly denies.

Those fears are at the heart of the Western push to halt Iran’s nuclear programme through successive sets of sanctions.

US President Barack Obama on Saturday signed into law the latest such package, measures targeting Iran’s central bank and financial sector.

Iran’s currency, the rial, slipped to a record low Sunday on that news.

The state news agency IRNA and an Iranian website tracking the currency said it slid to around 16,000 to the dollar.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told an annual meeting of senior central bank officials that their institution was “the backbone of dealing with the enemies’ pressure.”

He said the bank “must with strength and self-confidence have the solidity to eliminate all of the enemies’ plots,” according to a statement on the presidency website.

Ahmadinejad said that “currently there is no particular problem in the economic sector.”

The extra US sanctions aim to further squeeze Iran’s crucial oil sales, most of which are processed by the central bank. They will make foreign firms choose between doing business with the Islamic republic or the economically mighty United States.

Iran, the second-biggest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, depends on oil sales for 80 percent of its foreign currency earnings.

The European Union is also mulling an embargo on Iranian oil purchases, and a decision could be announced at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting at the end of the month.

Iranian leaders and military officials have warned that additional Western sanctions could push them to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf.

Those warnings became more strident in recent days, with Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi vowing last Tuesday that “not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz” if more sanctions were imposed.

Oil prices spiked on that declaration, before subsiding somewhat on analysts’ views that Iran would devastate its own economy by taking such a drastic step. It would also lose the international diplomatic protection it enjoys from Russia and China, they said.

Twenty percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the “most important choke point” globally, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Ahmadinejad says Iran’s central bank will face new U.S. sanctions with ‘strength’

January 1, 2012

Ahmadinejad says Iran’s central bank will face new U.S. sanctions with ‘strength’.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that the Islamic Republic’s central bank will confront the new U.S. sanctions with strength and self-confidence. (File Photo)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that the Islamic Republic’s central bank will confront the new U.S. sanctions with strength and self-confidence. (File Photo)

Iran’s central bank will confront new U.S. sanctions with “strength,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday, a day after U.S. leader Barack Obama signed into law extra measures against the institution.

“The central bank is the backbone of dealing with the enemies’ pressure and it must with strength and self-confidence have the solidity to eliminate all of the enemies’ plots,” he told an annual assembly of the bank’s senior officials, according to a statement on the presidency website.

“We should protect the people and the nation against the enemies’ plots so people are not pressured,” he was quoted as saying.

Ahmadinejad added that “currently there is no particular problem in the economic sector,” discounting the effects of previous sanctions.

The new U.S. sanctions seek to further squeeze Iran’s crucial oil revenues, most of which are processed by the central bank.

Under the measures, foreign firms will have to choose between doing business with the Islamic republic or the economically mighty United States.

The sanctions, meant to punish Iran for its nuclear program, were contained in a mammoth $662 billion U.S. defense bill. Obama signed them into law despite reservations they would ties his hands on setting foreign policy.

Iranian leaders and military officials have warned that such sanctions could push them to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf.

Twenty percent of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making it the “most important choke point” globally, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Iranian naval forces are currently conducting 10-day war games near the strait.

Iran’s rial takes a dive

Iran’s currency, the rial, slipped to a record low Sunday. The state news agency IRNA and an Iranian website tracking the currency said the rial’s street value at money changers’ slid to around 16,000 to the dollar.

That represented a huge difference with the official central bank rate of 11,179 rials to the dollar.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, Mohammad Nahavandian, rejected the move as “unjustifiable”, saying such sanctions would have reciprocal consequences.

“The Iranian nation and those involved in trade and economic activities will find other alternatives,” Nahavandian was quoted by Reuters as saying.

Iranian officials insist that foreign sanctions have had no impact on the country’s economy.

“The sanctions have raised the cost of trade and economic transactions but it has not managed to change Iran’s political behavior,” Nahavandian said.

Muslim Brotherhood: Israel peace deal isn’t binding

January 1, 2012

Muslim Brotherhood: Israel peace deal isn’t binding – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Leader in Egyptian Islamist movement says it won’t recognize Israel under any circumstances, and might put up peace treaty with ‘Zionist entity’ up to referendum; ‘Israel is enemy entity,’ he says

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will not recognize Israel under any circumstances and might put the peace treaty with the Jewish state up to a referendum, the movement’s second in command told the Al-Hayat newspaper in an interview that was published Sunday.

The announcement comes days before the final round in the first parliamentary elections in post-uprising Egypt. The Islamist movement has emerged as the biggest winner in polls, capturing nearly half of the seats so far.

The Muslim Brotherhood “did not sign the peace accords,” Rashad al-Bayoumi told the London-based newspaper. “We are allowed to ask the people or the elected parliament to express their opinion on the treaty, and (to find out) whether it compromised the people’s freedom and sovereignty.

“We will take the proper legal steps in dealing with the peace deal,” he added. “To me, it isn’t binding at all. The people will express their opinion on the matter.”

While the Brotherhood intends to temporarily honor Egypt’s international pacts, al-Bayoumi told noted, “each side has the right to reexamine the treaty.”

‘Israel is enemy entity’

He stressed that under no circumstances will the Brotherhood recognize the State of Israel.

“Is rising to power conditional on recognizing Israel?” al-Bayoumi wondered. “That’s out of the question, no matter what the situation is. On no condition will we recognize Israel. It is an enemy entity, an exploiting, criminal occupier.”

According to al-Bayoumi, no member of the Muslim Brotherhood will ever meet with Israelis.

“I won’t allow myself to sit down with a criminal,” he said. “We won’t cooperate with Israel in any situation.”

The final stage in the elections is scheduled to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Egyptian Salafi movement’s Al-Nour party, which is currently placed second in the parliamentary elections, said recently that it intends to maintain the peace with Israel, but stressed that it will make efforts to amend the treaty’s “exploitative clauses” using all legitimate means.

Iran fires medium-range missile during Strait of Hormuz naval drill

January 1, 2012

Iran fires medium-range missile during Strait of Hormuz naval drill – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Testing of new anti-radar weapon comes as top Iranian military official defends Tehran’s right to respond to western threats by closing off the strategic waterway.

By Haaretz

Iran test fired a medium-range anti-radar missile for first time during its 10-day naval drill near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s state television Press TV said on Sunday.

State TV says the missile is designed to evade radars and was developed by Iranian scientists.

Iran Navy Dec. 30, 2011 (AFP) An Iranian vessel fires a missile during navy exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, Dec. 30, 2011.
Photo by: AFP

Earlier Sunday, Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Hossein Salami defended his country’s right to close off the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for the distribution of global crude oil supplies.

“We will respond to any threat by intensified threat and this fact has no time or geographical limitation,” Salami told the semi-official Fars news agency adding that “the Strait of Hormoz is a part of our defense geography as well.”nm

News of a new Iranian test launch came a day after Iran’s senior navy commander denied reports that Iran had test-fired long-range missiles during the naval drill on Saturday, saying the missiles would be launched in the next few days.

Mahmoud Mousavi told Press TV that “the exercise of launching missiles will be carried out in the coming days.”

The Fars news agency, Press TV and the state-run IRNA news agency had originally reported that Iran had test-fired long-range and other missiles during the exercise on Saturday.

“All kinds of surface-to-sea, sea-to-sea and surface-to-air as well as shoulder-launched missiles will be tested in the coming days,” Mousavi told Press TV.

The 10-day naval drill, which began last Saturday, coincided with increased tension in Iran’s nuclear row with Western powers, after the European Union said it was considering a ban – already in place in the United States – on imports of Iranian oil.

Iran says the drill is aimed at showing Iran’s resolve to counter any attack by enemies such as Israel or the United States.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out a military option if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran.

The U.S. and its allies say Iran wants to build nuclear bombs under cover of a civilian program of uranium enrichment. Iran denies this.

State media reported on Saturday that Iran is ready to resume nuclear talks with world powers.

Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said in a meeting with a visiting Chinese official in Tehran that Iran was ready to resume talks with the six world powers over its nuclear programs.

Arab body says monitors should quit Syria promptly

January 1, 2012

Arab body says monitors should quit Syria … JPost – Middle East.

Arab League observers walking through protest

    CAIRO – An Arab League advisory body called on Sunday for the immediate withdrawal of the organization’s monitoring mission in Syria, saying it was allowing Damascus to cover up continued violence and abuses.

The Arab League has sent a small team to Syria to check whether President Bashar Assad is keeping his promise to end a crackdown on a nine-month uprising against his rule.

The observer mission has already stirred controversy. Rights groups have reported continued deaths in clashes and tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets to show the observers the extent of their anger.

The Sudanese head of the mission also infuriated some observers by suggesting he was reassured by first impressions of Homs, one of the main centers of unrest.

The Arab Parliament, an 88-member advisory committee of delegates from each of the League’s member states, on Sunday said the violence was continuing to claim many victims.

“For this to happen in the presence of Arab monitors has roused the anger of Arab people and negates the purpose of sending a fact-finding mission,” the organization’s chairman Ali al-Salem al-Dekbas said.

“This is giving the Syrian regime an Arab cover for continuing its inhumane actions under the eyes and ears of the Arab League,” he said.

The Arab Parliament was the first body to recommend freezing Syria’s membership in the organization in response to Assad’s crackdown.

An Arab League official, commenting on the parliament’s statement, told Reuters it was too early to judge the mission’s success, saying it was scheduled to remain in Syria for a month and that more monitors were on their way.

The parliament called on Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby to convene a meeting of Arab foreign ministers to adopt a resolution to withdraw the mission immediately.

The continued abuse and killing of innocent Syrian civilians was a “blatant violation to the Arab League’s protocol”, Dekbas said.

Syria’s state news agency SANA said there had been “massive demonstrations” throughout Syria on Friday in support of Assad, and denouncing “the plot which Syria is exposed to.”

It said demonstrators had denounced “the pressure and biased campaigns targeting Syria’s security and stability” and the “lies and fabrications of the misleading media channels.”

Syrian authorities have accused foreign powers of arming and funding “terrorists” in the country and say 2,000 of the government’s soldiers and police have been killed.

‘Iran successfully tests nuclear fuel rods’

January 1, 2012

    TEHRAN – Iran has successfully produced and tested fuel rods for use in its nuclear power plants, state television reported on Sunday, in a snub to international demands that it halt sensitive nuclear work.

The rods, which contain natural uranium, were made in Iran and have been inserted into the core of Tehran’s research nuclear reactor, the television reported.
Nuclear fuel rods contain small pellets of fuel, usually low-enriched uranium, patterned to give out heat produced by nuclear reaction without melting down.

“This great achievement will perplex the West, because the Western countries had counted on a possible failure of Iran to produce nuclear fuel plates,” the Tehran Times newspaper said.

The development was announced at a time of growing tension between Western powers and Iran after the UN nuclear agency reported in November that Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon. Secret research to that end may be continuing, it said.

The United States and its European allies have increased the sanctions pressure on Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, to push Tehran to halt the enrichment.

US President Barack Obama signed more sanctions against Iran into law on Saturday, shortly after Iran signaled it was ready for new talks with the West on its nuclear program and said it had delayed long-range missile tests in the Gulf.

West: Iran exaggerates nuclear developments

Western analysts say Iran sometimes exaggerates its nuclear advances to gain leverage in its stand-off with the West.

In April, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization announced that the installation of the machinery needed for producing nuclear fuel plates had started. The nuclear plant for converting enriched nuclear fuel into fuel rods was inaugurated in 2009.

“Currently, the rod is also undergoing rays at Tehran’s Research Reactor to examine its long-term performance, Iran’s English language Press TV reported.

Iran says only a few countries are capable of making both the fuel “plates”, used in the Tehran reactor, and nuclear fuel rods, which are used in power stations.

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel power plants and other types of reactors, which is Iran’s stated aim, or to provide material for atomic bombs if processed much further, which the West suspects is the country’s ultimate intention.

Iran Backs Off Threat To Close Strait Of Hormuz

January 1, 2012

Iran Backs Off Threat To Close Strait Of Hormuz | Fox News.

Iran_War_Games_Hormuz

Iran backed down Saturday from its earlier threats to block the strategic oil route through the Strait of Hormuz, apparently confirming U.S. assertions that such threats packed more “bluster” than bite.

Talk of blocking the strategic oil route through the Strait of Hormuz is a discussion of the past, a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said Saturday, but he said Iran had other, unspecified strategies for reacting to any Western aggression.

“Discourse about closing the Strait of Hormuz belongs to five years ago. Today’s debate in the Islamic Republic of Iran contains new layers and the time has not come to raise it,” Gen. Masoud Jazayeri said in comments posted Saturday on the Guard’s website, sepahnews.com.

Jazayeri did not elaborate.

The latest developments came on the same day that the country’s top nuclear negotiator announced Iran is proposing a new round of talks about its controversial nuclear program with the six world powers. The West recently imposed new sanctions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment program, which is a potential pathway to making nuclear arms.

U.S. military officials had warned Wednesday that any attempt by Iran to disrupt oil shipments at the mouth of the Persian Gulf “will not be tolerated.” Pentagon spokesman George Little described the Strait of Hormuz, as an “economic lifeline” vital to stability in the region.

And a spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy’s 5th fleet warned Iran against disrupting shipments in the strait, saying the U.S. Navy keeps a “robust presence in the region” and is “ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation.”

Iranian officials had threatened to use the passageway to retaliate if the West imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran’s oil exports over the country’s suspect nuclear program.

“Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces,” Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV on Wednesday. “Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway.”

On Tuesday, Vice President Mohamed Reza Rahimi also threatened to close the strait, cutting off oil exports, if the West imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil shipments.

The rising tension has coincided with the Iranian navy carrying out a 10-day naval exercise, including dispatching warships and drones over the vital waterway. The strait is just 34 miles wide, and about 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments pass through.

Western nations are growing increasingly impatient with Iran over its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has denied the charges, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity and producing medical radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.

Iran is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, with an output of about 4 million barrels of oil a day. It relies on oil exports for about 80 percent of its public revenues.

Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel that they may take military action to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

As the Pentagon warned Iran against taking any action in the Strait of Hormuz, a State Department spokesman said Tuesday that “obviously there’s an element of bluster” to some of the Iranian comments.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/12/31/iran-backs-off-threat-to-close-strait-hormuz/?test=latestnews#ixzz1iBsxyrdE

US, Israel discuss triggers for bombing Iran

January 1, 2012

US, Israel discuss triggers for bombing Iran.

Sunday Times

The Obama administration is trying to assure Israel privately that it would strike Iran militarily if Tehran’s nuclear programme crosses certain “red lines”-while attempting to dissuade the Israelis from acting unilaterally.

When Defence Secretary Leon Panetta opined earlier this month that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could “consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret,” the Israelis went ballistic behind the scenes. Michael Oren, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, lodged a formal diplomatic protest known as a demarche. And the White House was thrust into action, reassuring the Israelis that the administration had its own “red lines” that would trigger military action against Iran, and that there is no need for Jerusalem to act unilaterally.

Panetta’s seemingly innocent remarks on Dec. 2 triggered the latest drama in the tinder-box relationship that the Obama administration is trying to navigate with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. With Republicans lining up to court Jewish donors and voters in America in 2012, Obama faces a tricky election-year task of ensuring Iran doesn’t acquire a nuclear bomb on his watch while keeping the Israelis from launching a preemptive strike that could inflame an already teetering Middle East.

The stakes are immensely high, and the distrust that Israelis feel toward the president remains a complicating factor. Those sentiments were laid bare in a speech Netanyahu’s minister of strategic affairs, Moshe Ya’alon, gave on Christmas Eve in Jerusalem, in which he used Panetta’s remarks to cast doubt on the U.S.’s willingness to launch its own military strike.

Ya’alon told the Anglo-Likud, an organization within Netanyahu’s Likud party that caters to native English speakers, that the Western strategy to stop Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons must include four elements, with the last resort being a military strike.

“The fourth element of this combined strategy is the credible military strike,” Ya’alon said, according to a recording of the speech provided to The Daily Beast. “There is no credible military action when we hear leaders from the West, saying, ‘this is not a real option,’ saying, ‘the price of military action is too high.’

Getting US, Israel on the same page

The lack of trust between the Israeli and American leaders on Iran has been a sub-rosa tension in the relationship since 2009. Three U.S. military officials confirm to The Daily Beast that analysts attached to the Office of the Secretary of Defence are often revising estimates trying to predict what events in Iran would trigger Prime Minister Netanyahu to authorize a military attack on the country’s nuclear infrastructure.

Despite repeated requests going back to 2009, Netanyahu’s government has not agreed to ask the United States for permission or give significant advanced warning of any pending strike.

The U.S. naval ship is pictured during the Iran war game in the Sea of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran on Thursday. Reuters
Iranian military personnel participate in the war game near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. Reuters

The sensitive work of trying to get both allies on the same page intensified this month. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week to go over Iran issues; and the undersecretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, and a special arms control adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Robert Einhorn, were in Israel last week to discuss Iran as well. Panetta for his own part has revised his tone on the question of Iran’s nuclear programme, telling CBS News last week that the United States was prepared to use force against Iran to stop the country from building a nuclear weapon.
The new diplomacy has prompted new conversations between the United States and Israel over what the triggers – called “red lines” in diplomatic parlance – would be to justify a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Matthew Kroenig, who served as special adviser on Iran to the Office of the Secretary of Defence between July 2010 and July 2011, offered some of the possible “red lines” for a military strike in a recent Foreign Affairs article he wrote. He argued that the U.S should attack Iran’s facilities if Iran expels international nuclear weapons inspectors, begins enriching its stockpiles of uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90 percent, or installs advanced centrifuges at its main uranium-enrichment facility in Qom.

In an interview with The Daily Beast, Kroenig also noted that Iran announced in 2009 that it was set to construct 10 new uranium enrichment sites. “I doubt they are building ten new sites, but I would be surprised if Iran was not racing to build some secret enrichment facilities,” Kroenig said. “Progress on new facilities would be a major factor in our assessment of Iran’s nuclear programme and shape all aspects of our policy towards this including the decision to use force.”

Until recently, current and former Obama administration officials would barely broach the topic in public, only hinting vaguely that all options are on the table to stop Iran’s programme. Part of the reason for this was that Obama came into office committed to pursuing negotiations with Iran. When the diplomatic approach petered out, the White House began building international and economic pressure on Iran, often in close coordination with Israel.

All the while, secret sabotage initiatives like a computer worm known as Stuxnet that infected the Siemens-made logic boards at the Natanz centrifuge facility in Iran, continued apace. New U.S. estimates say that Stuxnet delayed Iran’s nuclear enrichment work by at most a year, despite earlier estimates that suggested the damage was more extensive.

Next step is military action

Last week in a CBS interview, Panetta said Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon is a “red line.” White House advisers have more recently broached the subject more specifically in private conversations with outside experts on the subject.

Patrick Clawson, the director of research for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said, “If Iran were found to be sneaking out or breaking out then the president’s advisers are firmly persuaded he would authorize the use of military force to stop it.” But Clawson added, “The response they frequently get from the foreign policy experts is considerable scepticism that this is correct, not that these people are lying to us, but rather when the occasion comes we just don’t know how the president will react.”
Henry Sokolski, the executive director the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said “You don’t propose and go about doing an oil embargo unless you are serious about taking the next step, and the next step for the administration is clearly some form of military action, and people who have left the administration like Dennis Ross have made it clear that this is precisely what’s on this administration’s mind.”

Ross did not respond to emails and phone calls requesting comment. Ironically, Panetta often is the official the Obama administration uses to engage Israel. “Panetta has been straightforward with the Israelis and they seem to appreciate that,” one senior administration official said. “The Israelis view Panetta as an honest broker.” In some ways that is why his remarks stung Netanyahu’s government so much.

Complicating matters, the Dec. 2 remarks also came at the same time a high-level delegation of Israeli diplomats, military officers and intelligence officials were in Washington for an annual meeting called the strategic dialogue. At the meeting, the Israeli side offered a new presentation on Iran’s nuclear programme suggesting that Iran’s efforts to build secret reactors for producing nuclear fuel were further along than the United States has publicly said. Some of the intelligence was based on soil samples collected near the suspected sites.

Part of the issue now between the United States and Israel are disagreements over such intelligence. The Israelis and the U.S. both believe that Iran suspended its work on weaponization, or the research and testing on how to fit an atomic explosion inside a warhead, in 2003 shortly after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Israel insists Iran on nuke hunt

The Israelis, however, say the Iranians started that work again in 2005, according to Israeli officials and Ya’alon, who said this in his speech on Christmas Eve. The 2007 and 2011 U.S. national intelligence estimates for Iran say this weaponization work remains suspended.

The Israelis also say a recent document uncovered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that shows detailed plans for constructing a “neutron initiator,” or a pellet that sits at the middle of the nuclear core and is crushed by high explosives in a nuclear explosion, is evidence that Iran is continuing its weaponization work.

The latest IAEA report released in November said members states had shared intelligence alleging that Iran had conducted explosive tests associated with nuclear weapons research.

A senior administration official told The Daily Beast, “Both Americans and Israelis agree that some research and design work is probably continuing in the event the Iranians decide to move ahead with weaponization.”

The intelligence disagreement is significant in part because one of the factors in drawing up red lines on Iran’s programme is how much progress Iran has made in constructing secret enrichment facilities outside of Natanz, where IAEA inspectors still monitor the centrifuge cascades. In 2009, the Obama administration exposed such a facility carved into a mountain outside of the Shiite holy city of Qom. The IAEA has chastised the Iranians for not fully disclosing their work on the Qom site until the United States forced the regime’s hand.

(Eli Lake is the senior national-security correspondent for Newsweek and the Daily Beast. He previously covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times. Lake has also been a contributing editor at The New Republic since 2008 and covered diplomacy, intelligence, and the military for the late New York Sun. He has lived in Cairo, Egypt, and traveled to war zones in Sudan, Iraq, and Gaza. He is one of the few journalists to report from all three members of President Bush’s axis of evil: Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.)

Courtesy The Daily Beast

Brinkmanship over vital oil strait worsens

TEHRAN, (AFP) – A showdown between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s threats to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers has worsened with warships from each side giving weight to an increasingly bellicose exchange of words.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards rejected a warning that the US military would “not tolerate” such a closure, saying they would act decisively “to protect our vital interests.”State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Thursday that Iran had exhibited “irrational behavior” by threatening to close the strait.

“One can only guess that the international sanctions are beginning to feel the pinch, and that the ratcheting up of pressure, particularly on their oil sector, is pinching in a way that is causing them to lash out.”The tough language came as two US warships entered a zone where the Iranian navy’s ships and aircraft were in the middle of 10 days of war games designed as a show of military might.

But a US navy spokeswoman said later that the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and the guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay had transited without incident on Tuesday, in pre-planned, routine operation.

“Our interaction with the regular Iranian Navy continues to be within the standards of maritime practice, well-known, routine and professional,” Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lieutenant Rebecca Rebarich said.
The transit area was in waters east of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point at the entrance to the Gulf through which more than a third of the world’s tanker-borne oil passes.

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned this week that “not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz” if the West followed through with planned additional sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The navy commander, Admiral Habibollah Sayari, backed that up by saying it would be “really easy” to close the strait. A US Defence Department spokesman riposted Wednesday that “interference with the transit… of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolerated.”

But Brigadier General Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, told Fars news agency on Thursday that “our response to threats is threats.” “We have no doubt about our being able to carry out defensive strategies to protect our vital interests — we will act more decisively than ever,” he was quoted as saying.

“The Americans are not qualified to give us permission” to carry out military strategy, he said.
Admiral Sayari said the US aircraft carrier was monitored by Iranian forces as it passed from the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, state television reported. It broadcast footage of an aircraft carrier being shadowed by an Iranian plane.

An Iranian navy spokesman, Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, told the official IRNA news agency the US carrier went “inside the manoeuvre zone” where Iranian ships were conducting their exercises.
He added that the Iranian navy was “prepared, in accordance with international law, to confront offenders who do not respect our security perimeters during the manoeuvres.”

US officials had said on Wednesday that the Stennis and its carrier strike group were moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Pentagon press secretary George Little said this was “a pre-planned, routine transit” to the Arabian Sea to provide air power for the war in Afghanistan.

The United States maintains a navy presence in the Gulf in large part to ensure oil traffic there is unhindered. Its Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain. Iran, which is already subject to several rounds of sanctions over its nuclear programme, has repeatedly said it could target the Strait of Hormuz if attacked or its economy is strangled.

Such a move could cause havoc on world oil markets, disrupting the fragile global economy, although analysts say the Islamic republic is unlikely to take such drastic steps as it relies on the route for its own oil exports.

Iran’s naval manoeuvres included the laying of mines and the use of aerial drones, according to Iranian media. Missiles and torpedoes were to be test-fired in the coming days. Earlier this month, Iranian officials said a Revolutionary Guards cyber-warfare unit had hacked the controls of a US bat-winged RQ-170 Sentinel reconnaissance drone and brought it down safely.

Analysts and oil market traders are watching the developing situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz carefully, fearing that a spark could ignite open confrontation between the long-time foes. The United States had proposed a military hotline between Tehran and Washington to defuse any “miscalculations” between their navies, but Iran in September rejected that offer.

Iran test fires long-range missiles in Gulf exercise

TEHRAN, Dec 31 (Reuters) – Iran test-fired long range missiles today during a naval exercise in the Gulf, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. “Iran test-fired missiles including long range (missiles), surface to sea … in the Persian Gulf,” Fars said.

Netanyahu to Young Pilots: I Believe in You

January 1, 2012

Netanyahu to Young Pilots: I Believe in You – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the young pilots at the conclusion of the 163rd Israel Air Forces pilots’ training course.
By Elad Benari

First Publish: 1/1/2012, 2:37 AM

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke on Thursday at the conclusion of the 163rd Israel Air Forces pilots’ training course. The concluding ceremony took place at the Hatzerim Airbase on the outskirts of Be’er Sheva.

Netanyahu praised the graduates of the course and particularly the five women who were among the graduates. His remarks came on the heels of the recent media hype over the exclusion of women by small extremist groups of hareidi-religious Jews.

Netanyahu told the young pilots that they are “the fingers of Israel’s fist of steel, and that fist of steel is connected to our very, very long arm. It was designed to protect our country against those who seek to hurt it. And I know you’ve gone a long way to get here, and that you will all go far.”

“I want to say a special word to the fresh female pilots of the Air Force,” he added. “There is no greater proof of the absurdity of gender discrimination, what we call the exclusion of women, than you coming here today to take part in the conclusion of this course. There is no exclusion of women in Israel. Whoever stands the test of capabilities their place is here with us.”

Netanyahu added, “In a country where women sit in the cockpit, women sit everywhere. This is Air Force policy, this is the IDF’s policy, this is our policy. And I know there’s a change that didn’t begin today. There are already female pilots, female navigators and female helicopter pilots. You really serve as a model to the open, liberal, democratic society that is the State of Israel.”

He concluded by telling the young pilots, “May you fly high, protect the sky, I believe in you because I know you will do everything in your power, men and women, to protect our homeland, to preserve our country. May you return home safely and carry a blessing.”

IDF bracing for all ‘post-Assad’ scenarios in Syria

January 1, 2012

IDF bracing for all ‘post-Assad’ scenarios in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Military also preparing for possible attack in Golan Heights on Israeli targets by Syrian civilians, without any real involvement of terrorist groups.

By Gili Cohen

The IDF is preparing for the disintegration of President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria and taking steps that include stepping up situation assessment efforts and making necessary adjustments in scenarios for which the army must prepare on the northern front.

Last week it was reported that the number of soldiers who have deserted the Syrian army passed the 10,000 mark. This news follows related developments, such as the high number of Syrian draftees who are failing to show up for their military service, as signs of the regime’s collapse in the near future.

Syria's Bashar Assad Nov. 6. 2011 (Reuters) Syrian President Bashar Assad greets crowd during visit to Raqqa city in eastern Syria, November 6, 2011.
Photo by: Reuters

At the same time, in monitoring events along Israel’s border with Syria, the IDF has not seen any signs of a change in the deployment of Syrian forces near the frontier. Despite sightings of refugees attempting to flee Syria, primarily toward Turkey and Lebanon, there have been no attempts by refugees to flee to Israeli territory.

The assessment in the Israeli security establishment is that the internal situation in Syria will continue to deteriorate. In early December, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said he expected the Assad regime would collapse within weeks.

Even the arrival in Syria of Arab League observers is not expected to change the situation, an Israeli military source said, adding that things are only projected to get worse. “In the absence of international intervention, it could happen all of a sudden, but it could also drag on for a long time,” said an officer in the IDF Northern Command, in reference to the fall of the regime.

In a talk to high-school students in Be’er Tuvia on Friday, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz said dozens of Syrian security forces are being killed and the presence of international observers is not changing the situation among the Syrians themselves.

The instability in Syria, as reflected in the soldiers’ desertion, is a matter of real concern, one officer in the IDF Northern Command said. The IDF is preparing for several possible scenarios, including that the fall the current regime could be followed by the rise of Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups. The IDF is also preparing for a possible attack in the Golan Heights on Israeli targets by Syrian civilians, without any real involvement of terrorist groups.