WarSclerotic

The Bibi-Obama clash – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: Israel-US ties hit another nadir over disagreements on response to Iran threat

The Iranian theater is simmering these days. Iran’s economy is in trouble, the ruling conservative camp is threatened domestically and internationally, and the regime is anxious. Even though almost all sides are not interested in a confrontation, the situation may very well boil over and lead to military escalation. That’s what happens when the interests of the major players contradict each other, even on the same side of the court. Israel and the United Statesare facing a head-to-head clash the likes of which we’ve rarely seen, as part of an ongoing crisis stemming from lack of faith between the two countries’ leaderships.

But first we must understand the Iranian interest: To reach the so-called “nuclear threshold” while at the same time completing the missile program and fortifying Tehran’s nuke sites to make them immune, or almost immune, to an aerial strike. Iran aims to achieve all this without facing stifling economic sanctions already formulated by the US and the West but not yet imposed. In a few months, Tehran’s ally Bashar Assad may be able to overcome Syria’s domestic uprising. Then, Iran’s ability to threaten Israel and the West via the immense arsenal of missiles and rockets handed over to Syria, Hezbollah and the Palestinians in Gaza will be doubled.

n short, Iran is playing for time. To that end, it waves carrots and sticks in the West’s and mostly in America’s face. The major stick is a blockade of the Hormuz Straits. The threat is meant to boost oil prices, a move that will undermine the unstable European economies and America’s recovering economy, while at the same time enriching Iran’s coffers, which are desperate for cash. The Straits are also a national symbol and placing it at the eye of the storm is meant to rally the Iranian nation around its leadership.

On the carrot side, Iran has suddenly informed that International Atomic Energy Agency of Tehran’s willingness to respond to the IAEA’s “questions” regarding nuclear arms development. Thus far, Iran refused to discuss relevant information, claiming it was fabricated. Moreover, IAEA inspectors were invited to visit Iran’s new uranium-enrichment facility, deep underground in a Revolutionary Guards base near the city of Qom. These two developments are supposed to take place towards the end of the month, with at least two months elapsing before the IAEA drafts a report.

The Iranians are also signaling their willingness to re-launch negotiations with the Europeans, Russia, China and the US on the nuclear program, which Tehran says is meant for peaceful purposes. However, Iran presented a condition: No sanctions during the negotiations.

Israel’s interest is to thwart Iran’s plans. The concern here is that not only will Tehran advance its nuclear program, but also manage to fortify it and move its facilities so deep underground that an Israeli strike would be ineffective. It’s also clear that if only they decide to do so, the Americans possess the resources to paralyze Iran’s nuclear program, even if an Israeli strike only achieves partial success. The critical question is what would happen if the Iranians fail to stop despite the paralyzing sanctions. Will officials in Washington decide to strike under such circumstances? There’s no certainty at all.

The oil factor

By the time the Americans weigh their options and make a decision, the Iranians may complete their fortification project, thereby causing Israel to miss the last chance to launch a successful, effective preventative strike. This is the reason why Israel pushes the US and Europe to impose the gravest possible sanctions on Iran in the coming weeks, while also proceeding full steam ahead with the secret war on Tehran.

Israel claims that only should the West exert heavy pressure, which would make Iran’s regime fear for its very survival, there would be a slight chance for practical results. Hence, Israeli officials at all levels of government are aiming to convince the West that a military option must be a realistic threat. For that reason, Jerusalem is also aiming to show that it would not hesitate to launch a strike, even at the price of a missile attack on our home front. By the way, Israeli experts estimate that the response would be must less devastating and bloody that what is commonly believed.

Israel is not willing to coordinate a strike with the US in advance, justifying the refusal by showing concern for America’s global status and interests – so that if Israel strikes alone, the US would not be accused of collaboration. It is very possible that these types of considerations prompted Israel to postpone the major missile defense drill planned for April. Despite this, should Netanyahu decide to strike, he will give the Americans enough time to put their forces in the Persian Gulf on alert, so that they don’t suffer great harm as result of the Iranian response.

The intelligence information available to Israel and to the US is very similar. Hence, America’s top officials do not reject Israel’s assessment regarding the pace of the Iranian nuclear project’s development. However, the US has a variety of vital regional interests that must be secured. Moreover, the means possessed by the Americas for handling the nuke threat are much more effective and powerful than Israel’s. Hence, the ObamaAdministration’s “Iran strategy” and the timetable for executing it almost necessarily clash with the moves desired by decision-makers in Jerusalem.

The essence of America’s strategy is to prevent Iran from securing nuclear arms but at the same time do everything to avoid military conformation, as not to cause oil prices to skyrocket. Such blow, at the time of economic recovery, would hurt Obama’s re-election chances in November. Iran can also disrupt America’s efforts to put a dignified end to the military intervention in Afghanistan.

American double standard

This is the core of the conflict. The Americans want to give their strategy a chance and more time, and show patience in respect to the imposition of stifling sanctions. Obama and his associates also demand that Israel refrain from striking, coordinate its moves, and where possible avoid any step that could infuriate the Iranians and push them away from the negotiating table, including assassinations of nuclear scientists and mysterious explosions attributed to Israel.

For that reason, Secretary of Defense Panetta, who approves mass assassinations of Taliban and al-Qaeda members by drone, rushed to condemn the latest killing in Tehran and even hinted to Israel’s involvement. All of it was apparently done in order to appease the anxious Iranians and bring them to the negotiating table.

The story is different in respect to the Hormuz Straits, where the Iranians managed to complicate matters. As opposed to its advice to Israel, the US shows zero tolerance to an Iranian threat against the West’s energy sources and Arab oil producers. In a letter sent to Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei, Obama announced that should the threat materialize it would be perceived as a declaration of war, thereby prompting a commensurate response.

The double standard shown by the US regarding the Iranian issue outrages Israel’s forum of top eight government ministers and pushes the ties between the administrations to yet another nadir. Indeed, the confrontation has almost become open. Netanyahu’s angry statement regarding the need to immediately impose painful sanctions on Iran was uttered even though it clearly undermined Obama’s campaign.

The Americans are sensitive to the president being portrayed as indecisive and as one who fears the imposition of sanctions, an image that may also harm him among Jewish voters. Hence, Washington made sure to hit back. The decisive message has been conveyed via the media as well, for example through Roger Cohen’s latest column in the New York Times which urged Netanyahu to refrain from striking Iran and interfering in American politics.

This week, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey, will arrive for talks with senior Israeli security officials. He will aim to convince Israel to show restraint and coordinate its moves by making note of the generous, almost unprecedented military aid offered to Israel by the Obama Administration. Another American card will be general clarification as to US military plans and preparations to curb Iran’s nuclear project. Should all else fail, Dempsey may also share the extreme scenario that would prompt the US to act.

In response, the American general will ask, and apparently not get, an Israeli pledge to coordinate any unordinary operation. However, Jerusalem is expected to offer a pledge to act responsibly and show restraint as long as Washington and its allies firmly utilize their strategy for curbing Iran’s nukes. After all, when Israel’s strategy clashes with what’s good for America’s economy and with the re-election chances of a serving president, officials in Jerusalem better think twice. Moreover, even here officials admit that the pressure on Iran is starting to bear fruit.

PM: Iran already decided to becom… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

(WTF ? ! Why is Netanyahu letting the Iranians know we’re going to hit them, and soon?  I have commented that I believed the conflict with the US and the statements by Barak were targeted disinformation.  Why show your hand?  I’m completely confused as to what’s “really” going on. – JW)

    Iran has already decided to become a nuclear state, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Thursday during a visit to Holland.

Netanyahu told reporters that action should be taken before it is too late, and that sanctions on Iran must be intensified.

A day earlier, Netanyahu called the Iranian nuclear threat “the issue that most concerns Israel” and said that the Netherlands and Israel “stand together in opposing Iran’s feverish pursuit of nuclear weapons while declaring its intention to wipe Israel off the map.”

“Nuclear arms in Iran are a threat to Israel, the region and the world,” he said in a speech in Amsterdam. “Sanctions should be applied to Iran’s central bank and its oil exports – and they should be applied now.”

“I want to thank the Netherlands for its support for strong sanctions on Iran,” Netanyahu added.

He also reiterated his call to PA President Mahmoud Abbas to “start negotiations for peace with no preconditions” and lauded the Dutch Parliament for passing a motion last year calling on the Palestinian Authority to recognize Israel as the Jewish state. “The persistent [Palestinian] refusal to accept a Jewish state within any boundaries is the core of the conflict,” he said.

Netanyahu commended Holland’s wartime record, which this month became the subject of a heated public debate in the Netherlands.

“The people of the Netherlands can be proud that despite their small size, they possess the second highest number of Righteous Gentiles of any country – thousand of righteous who risked their lives and the lives of their families, their own children to save Jews,” Netanyahu said.

Bloomberg contributed to this report.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 19, 2012, 6:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

US top soldier, Gen. Martin Dempsey with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Thursday night, Jan. 19 that Iran had decided to become a nuclear state. He urged action before it was too late to stop Iran completing the construction of a nuclear weapon. His statement at the end of a visit to Holland gave Gen Martin Dempsey, on his first visit to Israel as Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the message he will be asked to take back to President Barack Obama. It also contradicted Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s statement that Tehran had not yet decided to go nuclear.

On Dec. 22, 2011, debkafile first revealed Tehran had reached a decision to go ahead and build a nuclear weapon.
Netanyahu has kept the Iranian cards close to his chest. His statement therefore caught wrong-footed the Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who in the last 48 hours had asserted that Iran had not yet decided whether to build a nuclear bomb and there was still time for US-led sanctions to work.

debkafile reported earlier Thursday:

Gen. Martin Dempsey begins his first visit to Israel as Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff amid a major falling-out between the two governments over the handling of Iran’s nuclear weapon potential. debkafile‘s military and Washington sources confirm that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands by the view that Iran is advancing its plans to build a nuclear bomb full speed ahead, undeterred even by the threat of harsher sanctions. Netanyahu therefore stands by his refusal of President Barack Obama’s demand for a commitment to abstain from a unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear sites without prior notice to Washington.
The US president repeated this demand when he called the Israeli prime minister Thursday night Jan. 13. Netanyahu replied that, in view of their disagreement on this point, he preferred to cancel the biggest US-Israel war game ever staged due to have taken place in April. The exercise was to have tested the level of coordination between the two armies in missile defense for the contingency of a war with Iran or a regional conflict.

The prime minister was concerned that having large-scale US military forces in the country would restrict his leeway for decision-making on Iran.
In an effort to limit the damage to relations with the US administration, Defense Minister Ehud Barak struck a conciliatory note Wednesday, Jan. 18, saying, “Israel is still very far from a decision on attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
Striking the pose of middleman, he was trying to let Washington know that there was still time for the US and Israel to reach an accommodation on whether and when a strike should take place.

debkafile‘s sources doubt that President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu are in any mood to respond to Barak’s effort to cool the dispute. Obama needs to be sure he will not be taken by surprise by an Israel attack in the middle of his campaign for re-election, especially since he has begun taking heat on the Iranian issue.

Republican rivals are accusing him of being soft on Iran.  And while the economy is the dominant election issue, a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions by a margin of 48 to 33 percent according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll this week.
Wednesday (Thursday morning Israel time), President Obama responded by reiterating that he has been clear since running for the presidency that he will take “every step available to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

Echoes of Barak’s arguments were heard in the words of US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Wednesday night: “We are not making any special steps at this point in order to deal with the situation. Why? Because, frankly, we are fully prepared to deal with that situation now.”

Panetta went on to say that Defense Minister Barak contacted him and asked to postpone the joint US-Israeli drill “for technical reasons.”
Before he took off for a short trip to Holland, Netanyahu instructed Barak and IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz not to deviate in their talks with Gen. Dempsey from the position he took with the US president, namely, no commitment for advance notice to Washington about a unilateral strike against Iran.

The Israeli prime minister is convinced that, contrary to the claims by US spokesmen and media, that current sanctions are ineffective insofar as slowing Iran’s advance toward a nuclear weapon and the harsher sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil exports are too slow and will take hold too late to achieve their purpose.

In any case, say Israeli officials, Washington is again signaling its willingness to go back to direct nuclear negotiations with Tehran, although past experience proved that Iran exploits diplomatic dialogue as grace time for moving forward on its nuclear ambitions.
US spokesmen denied an Iranian report that a recent letter from the US president to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposed opening a direct channel for talks.

Still those reports persist. American and European spokesmen were forced to deny a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi Wednesday on his arrival in Ankara that Iran and the big powers are in contact over the revival of nuclear negotiations.

Netanyahu fears that dialogue between Iran and the five powers plus Germany (the P5+1) will resume after bowing to an Iranian stipulation that sanctions be suspended for the duration of the talks. Once again, Tehran will be enabled to steal a march on the US and Israel and bring its nuclear weapon program to conclusion, unhindered by economic constraints.

Shapiro: US, Israel coordinated on Iran … JPost – International.

    US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said Thursday that the US and Israel were in complete coordination in efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. While speaking at an event in Haifa, Shapiro said that the US and Israel were “focused on the same goal,” the prevention of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Shapiro stated that sanctions to reduce the amount of revenue Iran receives from its oil industry were “getting stronger everyday.”

The US envoy alluded to the possibility of military action against Iran, saying “all other options are still available,” but he added that there was still a lot of progress to be made on stopping Iran’s nuclear drive through sanctions.

Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor also addressed US strategic policy on Iran Thursday, saying that the United States’ leadership role within the international community is being threatened. Speaking in an interview with Army Radio, Meridor said that “the United States is perceived as a weakened country. Others don’t believe that it can provide the type of defense and security that is required of it.”

Referencing the ongoing Iranian nuclear pursuit, Meridor added that “if, in the end, Iran ends up becoming a nuclear power, that scenario will say something not only about Iran. It will also tell us a lot about the United States’ international standing, particularly within the Arab world where they are asking the US to stop Tehran.”

Meridor also spoke about the level of coordination between Israel and the United states on Iran’s nuclear program. He said that though the two allies share a common goal, “Israel is waging one campaign while the United States is waging a completely different one.”

Obama: All Options Available on Iran Nukes – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

By David Lev

Barack Obama

White House

In an interview with TIME Magazine, parts of which were published on the web Wednesday night, U.S. President Barack H. Obama slams Republican critics of his policy on Iran – singling out Mitt Romney, who appears to be the front-runner in the race to become the Republican nominee to run against Obama later this year. Romney has accused Obama of failing to act to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but Obama said in the interview that he was seriously mistaken – on his policy, and on what to do about Iran. Romney’s position would not stand up to “a serious debate,” he told TIME’s Fareed Zakaria.

Romney stated recently that Iran would definitely be able to build nuclear weapons if Obama was reelected, since the President had done nothing, and would continue to do nothing, to prevent Iran from acquiring the weapons. “I have made myself clear since I began running for the presidency that we will take every step available to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Obama said, adding “Can we guarantee that Iran takes the smarter path? No, which is why I’ve repeatedly said we don’t take any options off the table in preventing them from getting a nuclear weapon.”

The interview, which will appear in the January 30 edition of TIME, touches on numerous issues that Obama will find himself debating with the Republican candidate as the election draws closer. Obama blamed Congressional Republicans for weakening America’s international position, by failing to support some of his domestic policies.

“Our whole foreign policy has to be anchored in economic strength here at home,” Obama said. “And if we are not strong, stable, growing, making stuff, training our work force so that it’s the most skilled in the world, maintaining our lead in innovation, in basic research, in basic science, in the quality of our universities, in the transparency of our financial sector, if we don’t maintain the upward mobility and equality of opportunity that underwrites our politically stability and makes us a beacon for the world, then our foreign policy leadership will diminish as well.” Overall, though, the U.S. is in a stronger position than it was when he entered office, Obama said.

UN watchdog urges full Iran cooperation in nuclear probe – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

IAEA chief says he won’t soften his report on the Islamic Republic; ‘What we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons,’ Amano says.

By Reuters

The United Nations nuclear watchdog chief said it was his duty to warn the world about suspected Iranian activities that point to plans to develop atomic bomb, maintaining pressure on Tehran ahead of rare talks between Iran and his agency expected this month.

Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, made clear in an interview with Financial Times Deutschland that the UN body would press for full cooperation in meetings with Iranian officials in Tehran.

	Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano of Japan
	Photo by: AP

“What we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons,” he was quoted as saying in comments published in German on Thursday, adding Iran had so far failed to clarify allegations of possible military links to its nuclear program.

“We want to check over everything that could have a military dimension.”

An IAEA delegation, to be headed by Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts, is expected to seek explanations for intelligence information that indicates Iran has engaged in research and development relevant for nuclear weapons.

Tension between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear program has increased since November, when the IAEA published a report that said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity.

“I have absolutely no reason to soften my report. It is my responsibility to alarm the world,” Amano said. “The overall pattern led me to the decision to alarm the world. The more pieces [of information], the clearer the pattern becomes.”

Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told Reuters on Tuesday that Iranian officials were open to discussing “any issues” in the talks in Tehran, which he said were set for Jan 29-31.

Western diplomats, who have often accused Iran of using stalling tactics as it presses ahead with its nuclear program, have expressed doubt that the planned IAEA trip will lead to any major progress in the long-running nuclear dispute.

While UN inspectors regularly monitor Iran’s declared nuclear facilities, their movements are otherwise restricted, and the IAEA has complained for years of a lack of access to sites, equipment, documents and people relevant to its probe.

Amano rejected Iranian media suggestions that his agency may have been partly responsible for the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist last week.

Iran has in the past accused the IAEA of leaking the names of nuclear scientists, making them potential targets for the security services of Iran’s foes in the West and Israel.

“That is wrong. We did not publish his name. I did not know him,” Amano said about the Jan 11 killing of Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan in a car bomb attack in Tehran. Iran has blamed Israel.

“I don’t believe in violence. I believe in dialogue and conversation. I only expect from Iran that it cooperates.”

Iran says it has never tried to close Strait of Hormuz, warns region against escalation.

Thursday, 19 January 2012

The Strait of Hormuz, an important oil shipping route, is at the center of dispute between Iran and the west. (Reuters)

inShare1

Iran has never in its history tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping route at the center of increasing international tension, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said Thursday.

“Iran has never in its history tried to prevent, to put any obstacles in the way of this important maritime route,” he said in an interview with NTV television during a visit to Turkey.

Salehi also warned Arab neighbors not to put themselves in a “dangerous position” by allying themselves too closely with Washington in the escalating row over Tehran’s nuclear activity.

 We want peace and tranquility in the region. But some of the countries in our region, they want to direct other countries 12,000 miles away from this region 

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi

“We want peace and tranquility in the region. But some of the countries in our region, they want to direct other countries 12,000 miles away from this region,” Salehi said in English during a visit to Turkey.

The remark was an apparent reference to the alliance of Iran’s Arab neighbors with the United States, which has a huge fleet in the Gulf and says it will keep the waterway open.

“I am calling to all countries in the region, please don’t let yourselves be dragged into a dangerous position,” he told Turkey’s NTV broadcaster.

Iran threatened in December to close the narrow and strategic waterway ̶ a chokepoint for one fifth of the world’s traded oil ̶ in the event of a military strike or the severe tightening of international sanctions.

That set up a tense standoff with the United States which sent a second aircraft carrier to the region as Tehran announced new naval maneuvers in the Strait within the next few weeks.

Washington should be willing to hold talks with Tehran with no preconditions, he said.

Iran’s military in 1987 and 1988 laid mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf to make the channel hazardous for oil tankers from Iraq, with which it was at war.

In April 1988, a U.S. warship struck one of the mines and nearly sank. The U.S. military subsequently launched Operation Preying Mantis, destroying two Iranian oil platforms and several vessels.

Mines left over from that conflict, and from the 1990-1991 Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, were being picked up in the coastal waters in the northern Gulf up to a decade later.

 there are all kinds of reasons why Tehran would probably not close the strait as long as they have the ability to export some oil 

Michael Eisenstadt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Meanwhile, U.S.-based experts said that Iran has no desire to carry out its threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz to head off fresh Western economic sanctions because doing so would damage the regime’s own interests.

Iran is brandishing the vital shipping route ̶ a chokepoint for one fifth of the world’s traded oil ̶ as a pawn in the battle being played out against the United States and other leading nations over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

But the potential effects of taking firm action has left Tehran blowing hot and cold on the issue and could be part of a wider series of threats that Iran is willing to make to defend its ground, according to analysts.

“Iran’s perception is that the U.S. and its allies are waging economic warfare on the Islamic Republic and that the regime is at risk ̶ their ability to export oil has always been a red line for them,” said Michael Eisenstadt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

But “there are all kinds of reasons why Tehran would probably not close the strait as long as they have the ability to export some oil.”

“They also import almost all their products through the … Gulf, so they would really be a self-inflicted wound on them if they were to do this,” Eisenstadt said.

“A more likely possibility is that Iran might engage in harassment of U.S. forces, maybe a covert harassment campaign,” he told a conference hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington on Tuesday.

The killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist, which Tehran blamed on the United States and Israel, has added to an already heated diplomatic battle over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions ̶ which it insists are for non-military purposes.

 The Iranians, I think, very deliberately use the specter of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a codename for something much bigger 

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer

Iran’s apparent openness to resuming talks with the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany, also indicates it does not intend to shut down the strategic trading route, according to Eisenstadt.

The talks last took place in Turkey in January 2011.

But the prospect of new Western sanctions ̶ the EU could as early as Monday impose new penalties on Iran ̶ has increasingly seen Tehran use the possible disruption of oil supplies as a bargaining chip.

Mark Gunzinger, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think-tank focused on US national security, said the situation in the Gulf was a major concern.

“Closing the strait cuts both ways, their economy is very dependent on energy exports as well, as well as imports of refined energy,” said Gunzinger.

“I don’t personally take what he (Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) says seriously, but you do have to take seriously their (nuclear) ambitions.

“The trend line is worrisome. Ten years from now you might not want to put two aircraft-carriers right in the … Gulf.”

The threat is just one tool in Iran’s box to deter a U.S. missile strike on its nuclear facilities, according to Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer.

“The Iranians, I think, very deliberately use the specter of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a codename for something much bigger,” said Riedel, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.

“They’re talking about all the things they could do on the southern littoral of the Gulf, from missile strikes into Abu Dhabi, into refining centers,” or supporting terror groups that could hit Thailand, Lebanon or the United States, Riedel said, noting that U.S. efforts in Afghanistan could also suffer.

“They don’t have to close the Strait of Hormuz to make sure that the price of gasoline in the U.S. goes through the roof,” Riedel said.

“The Iranians are superbly placed to make the war in Afghanistan, which is already difficult, impossible.

“If there is a second country providing sanctuary and safe heaven for the insurgency, the chances of success on the timeline the administration has laid out is virtually nil,” Riedel said.

“They can turn out the light literally on half of Afghanistan whenever they want to,” he added.

IAEA head: My duty is to warn wo… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    VIENNA – The UN nuclear watchdog chief said it was his duty to warn the world about suspected Iranian activities that point to plans to develop atomic bomb, maintaining pressure on Tehran ahead of rare talks between Iran and his agency expected this month.

Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, made clear in an interview with Financial Times Deutschland that the UN body would press for full cooperation in meetings with Iranian officials in Tehran.
“What we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons,” he was quoted as saying in comments published in German on Thursday, adding Iran had so far failed to clarify allegations of possible military links to its nuclear program.

“We want to check over everything that could have a military dimension.”

An IAEA delegation, to be headed by Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts, is expected to seek explanations for intelligence information that indicates Iran has engaged in research and development relevant for nuclear weapons.

Tension between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear program has increased since November, when the IAEA published a report that said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity.

“I have absolutely no reason to soften my report. It is my responsibility to alarm the world,” Amano said. “The overall pattern led me to the decision to alarm the world. The more pieces (of information), the clearer the pattern become.”

Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told Reuters on Tuesday that Iranian officials were open to discussing “any issues” in the talks in Tehran, which he said were set for Jan 29-31.

Western diplomats, who have often accused Iran of using stalling tactics as it presses ahead with its nuclear program, have expressed doubt that the planned IAEA trip will lead to any major progress in the long-running nuclear dispute.

While UN inspectors regularly monitor Iran’s declared nuclear facilities, their movements are otherwise restricted, and the IAEA has complained for years of a lack of access to sites, equipment, documents and people relevant to its probe.

Amano rejected Iranian media suggestions that his agency may have been partly responsible for the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist last week.

Iran has in the past accused the IAEA of leaking the names of nuclear scientists, making them potential targets for the security services of Iran’s foes in the West and Israel.

“That is wrong. We did not publish his name. I did not know him,” Amano said about the Jan 11 killing of Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan in a car bomb attack in Tehran. Iran has blamed Israel.

“I don’t believe in violence. I believe in dialogue and conversation. I only expect from Iran that it cooperates.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 19, 2012, 11:06 AM (GMT+02:00)

US top soldier, Gen. Martin Dempsey with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta

Gen. Martin Dempsey arrives Thursday, Jan. 19, for his first visit to Israel as Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff amid a major falling-out between the two governments over the handling of Iran’s nuclear weapon potential. debkafile‘s military and Washington sources confirm that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands by the view that Iran is advancing its plans to build a nuclear bomb full speed ahead, undeterred even by the threat of harsher sanctions. Netanyahu therefore stands by his refusal of President Barack Obama’s demand for a commitment to abstain from a unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear sites without prior notice to Washington.
The US president repeated this demand when he called the Israeli prime minister Thursday night Jan. 13. Netanyahu replied that, in view of their disagreement on this point, he preferred to cancel the biggest US-Israel war game ever staged due to have taken place in April. The exercise was to have tested the level of coordination between the two armies in missile defense for the contingency of a war with Iran or a regional conflict.

The prime minister was concerned that having large-scale US military forces in the country would restrict his leeway for decision-making on Iran.
In an effort to limit the damage to relations with the US administration, Defense Minister Ehud Barak struck a conciliatory note Wednesday, Jan. 18, saying, “Israel is still very far from a decision on attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
Striking the pose of middleman, he was trying to let Washington know that there was still time for the US and Israel to reach an accommodation on whether and when a strike should take place.

debkafile‘s sources doubt that President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu are in any mood to respond to Barak’s effort to cool the dispute. Obama needs to be sure he will not be taken by surprise by an Israel attack in the middle of his campaign for re-election, especially since he has begun taking heat on the Iranian issue.

Republican rivals are accusing him of being soft on Iran.  And while the economy is the dominant election issue, a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions by a margin of 48 to 33 percent according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll this week.
Wednesday (Thursday morning Israel time), President Obama responded by reiterating that he has been clear since running for the presidency that he will take “every step available to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

Echoes of Barak’s arguments were heard in the words of US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Wednesday night: “We are not making any special steps at this point in order to deal with the situation. Why? Because, frankly, we are fully prepared to deal with that situation now.”

Panetta went on to say that Defense Minister Barak contacted him and asked to postpone the joint US-Israeli drill “for technical reasons.”
Before he took off for a short trip to Holland, Netanyahu instructed Barak and IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz not to deviate in their talks with Gen. Dempsey from the position he took with the US president, namely, no commitment for advance notice to Washington about a unilateral strike against Iran.

The Israeli prime minister is convinced that, contrary to the claims by US spokesmen and media, that current sanctions are ineffective insofar as slowing Iran’s advance toward a nuclear weapon and the harsher sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil exports are too slow and will take hold too late to achieve their purpose.

In any case, say Israeli officials, Washington is again signaling its willingness to go back to direct nuclear negotiations with Tehran, although past experience proved that Iran exploits diplomatic dialogue as grace time for moving forward on its nuclear ambitions.
US spokesmen denied an Iranian report that a recent letter from the US president to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposed opening a direct channel for talks.

Still those reports persist. American and European spokesmen were forced to deny a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi Wednesday on his arrival in Ankara that Iran and the big powers are in contact over the revival of nuclear negotiations.

Netanyahu fears that dialogue between Iran and the five powers plus Germany (the P5+1) will resume after bowing to an Iranian stipulation that sanctions be suspended for the duration of the talks. Once again, Tehran will be enabled to steal a march on the US and Israel and bring its nuclear weapon program to conclusion, unhindered by economic constraints.