WarSclerotic

NYT columnist: Bibi, don’t attack Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Roger Cohen says Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities before US elections would ‘stymie’ Obama; adds ‘choosing between US and Iran is a no-brainer’

New York Times columnist Roger Cohen urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from attacking Iran “this spring or summer” if he cares about his “dysfunctional relationship” with US President Barack Obama.

In an article published in the American daily on Monday, Cohen said a US ambassador in Europe was recently asked by an Israeli counterpart what could be done to improve the “lousy relations” between Netanyahu and Obama. He replied: “Every once in a while, say thank you.”

According to the senior columnist, the American ambassador added, “Maybe, once in a while, ask the president if there’s anything you can do for him. And above all stay out of our election-year politics.”

Netanyahu and Obama in digitally-altered Iranian photo

Cohen said the sharp reply “reflects Obama’s fury at several things: the way Netanyahu has gone over his head to a Republican-dominated Congress where he is a darling; Netanyahu’s ingratitude for solid US support, including the veto of an anti-settlements resolution at the United Nations last year and opposition to the unilateral Palestinian pursuit of statehood; the delaying tactics of Netanyahu reflecting his conviction Obama is likely a one-term president; and Netanyahu’s refusal to pause a second time in settlement building for the sake of peace negotiations.”

The op-ed states that Netanyahu is “tempted to bomb Iran in the next several months to set back its opaque nuclear program and – despite a call from Obama last Thursday and messages from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta – has declined to reassure the United States that he will not.”

“I would add a further piece of advice to Netanyahu if he cares about his dysfunctional relationship with Obama — and he should because Israelis know the United States matters and might be disinclined to re-elect a man who has poisoned relations with Washington. That advice is: Do not attack Iran this spring or summer,” Cohen wrote.

According to the columnist, an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities a few months before the US election in November would “stymie” Obama. The US president “would be in no position to express anger given the clout of the pro-Israel lobby, the important Jewish vote in Florida and the fulsome support any Israeli bombing would get from the Republican contender — probably Mitt Romney,” Cohen claimed.

“By contrast, a re-elected Obama would, as a second-term president, have room to mark his displeasure if Israel was to go it alone. Because awareness is growing that Obama could indeed win, these considerations carry weight in Jerusalem,” he wrote.

Cohen added: “Don’t go there, Mr. Netanyahu. It would be a terrible mistake. Choosing between the United States and Iran is a no-brainer. One is a great power and essential friend. The other is a blustering, combustible society that’s been tinkering with a nuclear program for decades and whose closest regional ally, Syria, is on the brink.”

Syrian ‘chemical, biological’ weapons concern Israel – Israel News, Ynetnews.

IDF’s planning division head says chemical, biological weapons still flowing into Syria, wonders ‘what will be transferred to Hezbollah?’

AFP

Israel has serious concerns about what will happen to “huge stockpiles” of chemical and biological weapons in Syria when the Assad regime collapses, a senior military official said on Tuesday.

Major-General Amir Eshel, head of the Israeli military’s planning division, said the working assumption was the regime of President Bashar Assad would eventually fall.

“The question is when, not if. And the big question is what’s going to come the day after,” he said.

“The immediate concern is the huge stockpiles of chemicals, biologicals (weapons), strategic capabilities that are still going into Syria, mainly from eastern Europe,” Eshel said.

“That’s a major concern because I don’t know who is going to own those the day after. Up till now, what has been transferred to Hezbollah? What will be transferred to Hezbollah? What will be divided between those factions inside Syria? What is that going to create?

“We are talking about huge stockpiles,” he said.

The regime has spearheaded a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy activists seeking to overthrow Assad, who has vowed to remain in power, raising the specter of civil war between Syria’s many religious sects if he steps down.

Eshel said the threat of civil war was a real possibility if Assad clung to power.

“If Assad will adopt this Yemenite model and leave, it might prevent a civil war,” he said, referring to an agreement that saw Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh agree in November to leave power.

“But if he won’t leave of his own will, we might get into civil war,” he said. “If there will be a civil war, it might be a disaster.”

Eshel also warned that Syria faces bankruptcy, which could create new instability.

“I think the major challenge the Syrians will face in a few months, is bankruptcy. The reserves will be zero, and this is going to create, I think, internal turmoil. We can expect refugees in many countries.”

On January 10, Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz told MPs that the military was preparing for the possibility of an influx of Syrian refugees, particularly on the Golan Heights.

‘Nuclear Iran could deter IDF fr… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    A nuclear-armed Iran could deter Israel from going to war in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip against Tehran’s terrorist allies, an IDF officer said on Tuesday.

OC Planning Directorate Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel echoed leaders in Jerusalem who argue that a nuclear-armed Iran could create a “global nuclear jungle” and fuel arms races in an already volatile Middle East.
Eshel made clear that Israel worries that Syria and Hezbollah, as well as Hamas in the Gaza Strip, could one day find reassurance in an Iranian bomb.

“They will be more aggressive. They will dare to do things that right now they would not dare to do,” he said in a briefing to foreign journalists and diplomats.

“So this is going to create a dramatic change in Israel’s strategic posture, because if we are forced to do things in Gaza or Lebanon under an Iranian nuclear umbrella , it might be different.”

Eshel, who spoke at the conservative Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs think-tank, quoted an unnamed Indian officer who, he said, had described the Asian power’s friction with nuclear-armed rival and neighbor Pakistan in terms of self-restraint.

“When the other side has a nuclear capability and are willing to use it, you think twice,” Eshel said. “You are more restrained because you don’t want to get into that ball game.”

Eshel said there are now some 100,000 rockets and missiles that could be fired at Israel by terrorist groups, Iran and its ally Syria.

Despite seeing its resources strained by a 10-month-old popular uprising, Syria’s government has invested $2 billion in air defenses over the last two years, and more on counter-measures against any ground invasion, Eshel said, linking both efforts to Syrian wariness of Israel.

He declined to be drawn on whether Israel might try to attack Iran’s distant, dispersed and well-defended nuclear facilities alone – or, conversely, whether it could decide to accept a nuclear-armed Iran as an inevitability to be contained through superior firepower and fortifications.

Those decisions, Eshel said, were up to the government and the armed forces would provide it with a “tool box” of options.

“We have the ability to hit very, very hard, any adversary,” said Eshel, a former senior air force officer and fighter pilot. But he cautioned against expecting any decisive “knock-out” blow against Israel’s enemies.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 17, 2012, 12:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

debkafile‘s sources disclose exclusively that, contrary to recent reports published in Washington, Jerusalem – and this site too – it was Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, not the Obama administration, who decided to call off the biggest ever joint US-Israeli military exercise Austere Challenge 12 scheduled for April 2012.
Washington was taken aback by the decision. It was perceived as a mark of Israel’s disapproval for the administration’s apparent hesitancy in going through with the only tough sanctions with any chance of working against Iran’s nuclear weapon program: penalizing its central bank and blocking payments for its petroleum exports.
This was the first time Israel had ever postponed a joint military exercise; it generated a seismic moment in relations between the US and Israel at a time when Iran has never been so close to producing a nuclear weapon.

This week, Netanyahu further orchestrated a series of uncharacteristically critical statements by senior ministers: Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon called the Obama administration “hesitant” (Jan. 15), after which Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman urged the Americans to “move from words to deeds” (Jan 16).
The underlying message was that the Israeli government felt free to attack Iran’s nuclear sites on its own if necessary and at a time of its choosing.
debkafile‘s sources report that Netanyahu decided on this extreme course after careful consideration when he judged the Obama administration’s resolve to preempt a nuclear Iran to be flagging, as indicated by four omissions:

1. Washington has taken no action against Iran’s capture of the RQ-170 stealth drone on Dec. 4 more than a month after the event, and not even pressed President Obama’s demand of Dec. 12 for the drone’s return.
Tehran, for its part, continues to make hay from the event: This week, our Iranian sources report, the Islamic Republic circulated a new computer game called “Down the RQ-170.”  Players assemble the drone from the components shown on their screens and then launch it for attacks on America.

2.  Silence from Washington also greeted the start of 20-percent grade uranium enrichment at the underground Fordo facility near Qom when it was announced Jan. 9. Last November, Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned in two US TV interviews (Nov. 17 and 22) that as soon as the Fordo facility went on stream, Iran would start whisking the rest of its nuclear facilities into underground bunkers, out of reach and sight of US and Israeli surveillance.
Barak made it clear at the time that Israel could not live with this development; therefore, the Netanyahu government believes Israel’s credibility is now at stake.
3.  Exactly three weeks ago, on Jan. 3 Lt. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, Iran’s Army chief, announced that the aircraft carrier USS Stennis and other “enemy ships” would henceforth be barred from entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz . Yet since then, no US carrier has put this threat to the test by attempting a crossing. Tehran has been left to crow.
4.  Even after approving sanctions on Iran’s central bank and energy industry, the White House announced they would be introduced in stages in the course of the year. According to Israeli’s calculus, another six months free of stiff penalties will give Iran respite for bringing its nuclear weapon program to a dangerous and irreversible level.