WarSclerotic

Iran Conflict: Security Dilemma As US-Israel Military War Game Halted Amid Rising Iranian Tension | World News | Sky News.

US missile defence troops previously deployed to Israel ahead of the Iraq war in 2003

The drill, called “Austere Challenge”, had been due to take place in April and would have involved the deployment of thousands of US troops.

The exercise would have simulated scenarios in which American and Israeli missile defence systems would be co-ordinated to protect Israel in the event of attack.

Senior defence officials told the Israeli media that the drill – the largest ever joint missile defence exercise – would be rescheduled for the end of the year.

It is not clear whether Israel or the US was behind the postponement, but Washington is known to be wary about increasing regional tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Israel and the US fear targeting by Iranian Shahab 3 missiles

Publicly, Israel says it still favours economic sanctions and diplomacy to deter Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. But it has refused to rule out military action to tackle what it considers an “existential threat”.

Last week’s assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist – the fourth in two years – raised tensions, with Iran accusing Israel of being behind the attack.

President Barak Obama, who spoke to Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu by telephone last week, is reported to be seeking assurances that Israel will not launch a pre-emptive strike without Washington’s approval.

Analysts say Mr Obama, focusing on his own re-election bid, is reluctant to become embroiled in another regional conflict.

The Chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, General Martin Dempsey, is due to visit Israel later this week.

Report: Hezbollah fires rockets at Syrian civilians – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian opposition insist terror group launched Katiusha rockets at Syrian civilians near Damascus in coordination with Assad’s forces in another display of oppression

Roi Kais

Has the Syrian regime found a new way to oppress its citizens? Syria‘s opposition websites reported Monday that Hezbollah launched Katiusha rockets at civilians near Damascus, with the intention of harming them.

The act was clearly coordinated Syrian President Bashar Assad‘s forces against the Syrian people, claimed the Syrian Revolutionary Coordination Union, one of the more outspoken opposition groups in the country.

“The killingsstill continue and still there are people arrested,” said Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby in Bahrain. He said there will be a meeting of Arab foreign ministers at the end of the week in Cairo to decide on the next steps.

On Sunday, the Arab League announced it had not received any official request or suggestion to send Arab troopsto Syria, an Arab representative to the Cairo-based League.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said on Saturday that Arab troops may have to step in to halt the bloodshed in Syria since the start of protests against Assad in March.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Syria’s state-run news agency SANA reported Sunday that at least five factory workers were killed when a roadside bomb detonated near the bus they were traveling in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in northern Syria.

The Observatory said 16 other people died in Syria Sunday, 11 of them in the restive central city of Homs.

A UN official said last week that about 400 people have been killed in the last three weeks alone, on top of an earlier estimate of more than 5,000 dead since March.

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report

Iran’s game of chicken regarding oil production – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

There is no certainty that sanctions wouldn’t strengthen the current regime, which would present them as a Western ploy against Iran, calling on the public to rally around the government.

By Zvi Bar’el

Iran’s representative to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, warned the Gulf States against increasing their oil production to compensate for the decrease in Iranian oil production, on Sunday, saying “they will be held responsible for the consequences.”

Khatibi’s masked warning continued the line adopted lately by Iranian senior officials who said that “if Iranian oil would not be allowed to exit the Persian Gulf, then not a drop of oil from the other Gulf States would be allowed out as well,” and that “it’s very easy for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz.”

	Iranian naval vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, Jan. 3, 2012.
	Photo by: Reuters

Iran indeed has the military capability to damage oil tankers in the Gulf, or strike oil facilities in neighboring countries such as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

But despite these ominous warnings, Saudi Arabia – Iran’s main rival – has already declared that in the case of sanctions against Iranian oil exports, it would increase its oil production to make up for the shortfall,.Thus, they have calmed fears of a dramatic price hike.

Saudi Arabia produces roughly 10 million barrels per day, while Iran exports some 2.5 million barrels a day. According to Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, his country can easily produce 12.5 million barrels daily to compensate for the shortage.

Threats aside, Iran is also trying to prevent sanctions being imposed by a diplomatic maneuver, declaring it would allow more officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear facilities and see for themselves that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons.

The inspectors are due in Iran by the end of this month, and any resolution involving sanctions may be delayed until after the visit.

European Union officials are set to discuss sanctions on January 23, mostly barring imports of Iranian oil, and perhaps forbidding deals with The Central Bank of Iran.

The EU is thus expected to join U.S. President Barack Obama, who declared sanctions on Iran last month.

A European initiative could come under strong opposition from some of the European states dependent on Iranian oil, or those who wish to see their Iranian debts paid.

Greece, for example, which is undergoing a deep financial crisis and importing a third of its oil from Iran, would not easily join sanctions that would put its economy in further peril, considering the favored conditions it receives from Iran.

Italian oil company ENI owes Iran large sums for drilling rights, paying them off with oil.

Spain is dependent on Iranian oil, and its economic situation isn’t rosy enough to allow it to pass by Iran’s favorable purchase terms.

And even if the European countries agree on sanctions, these would encumber Iran but not paralyze its economy without the participation of China, South Korea, Japan and Turkey.

Turkey and China have no intention of joining the sanctions, while Japan and South Korea are still examining the possible ramifications of joining the move.

Iran could easily offer these countries – especially China – attractive prices that would neutralize the European sanctions.

As for the sanctions on its central bank, Iran is set to use alternative monetary routes such as Russian or Turkish banks, which are already used to transfer revenues.

The move to apply swift sanctions also takes into consideration the upcoming elections to the Iranian parliament, scheduled for the beginning of March.

There is no certainty that the planned move would not have the opposite effect, and actually strengthen the current regime, which would lose no opportunity to present the sanctions as a Western ploy against Iran, calling on the public to rally around the government.

Netanyahu: Current Iran sanctions won’t curb its nuclear program – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

PM says further, more effective sanctions must be implemented against Iran’s central bank and oil industry; remarks made days after he said Iran beginning to fold in face of pressure.

By Jonathan Lis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that the current sanctions imposed on Iran were not effective enough to stop its nuclear program, and called for further sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s central bank and oil industry.

“As long as there will not be effective sanctions on Iran’s central bank and oil industry, there won’t be any effect on its nuclear program,” Netanyahu said during a discussion in the Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs committee.

	Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
	Photo by: Olivier Fitoussi

He also warned against Iran’s advance into Iraq. “There is a lack of stability and under these circumstances we must strengthen our defense capabilities against aerial and ground attacks,” he said.

Netanyahu’s statement comes after he actually praised the current sanctions on Iran last week in an interview with The Weekend Australian. In that interview, he said Iran is beginning to fold due to the combination of sanctions and threats of military action on its nuclear facilities.

European officials have worked for several months on banning the purchase of Iranian oil, and are expected to agree to the measures at a meeting of foreign ministers on January 23.

Netanyahu also commented on the current talks with the Palestinians, saying he is prepared to drive to Ramallah and engage in talks with Abbas, but the Palestinian president refuses.

He blamed Erekat for breaking the agreement not to discuss the contents of the talks that have been taking place in Amman in recent weeks, and for raising additional conditions.

“Erekat wants to abandon the January 26 talks, but the Quartet scheduled 90 days for talks,” Netanyahu said. “We served Erekat with a 21-point document that anyone would agree to… but Erekat continues to pose conditions.”

Stopping Iran’s nukes – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

    Iran seems intent on pushing forward with its nuclear program and there seems to be no surefire way of stopping it. If the current situation continues, we might have to face the horrific prospect of learning to live with a nuclear Iran.

It has been five years since the UN Security Council first demanded that Iran cease enriching uranium. But the Islamic Republic continues to defy international pressure and is stubbornly advancing with what appears to be a bid to acquire nuclear weapons in the coming year.

On November 8, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report expressing “serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program.” The most recent development is Iran’s announcement that it is beginning to enrich uranium in a new facility in Fordo, near the holy city of Qom.

The imminent opening of the new enrichment site further complicates a military option. Since the new facility is buried deep underground at a well-defended military site, it is considered far more resistant to air strikes than the existing enrichment site at Natanz. And even if a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities succeeded, the geopolitical fallout is liable to be nightmarish, although the prospect of a nuclear Iran is no less of a nightmare.

Covert actions, in contrast, carry much less of a risk, but are also less effective. For instance, last week’s assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, undoubtedly dealt a blow to Iran’s nuclear program.

But the delay, if any, is only temporary since Roshan is obviously not the only person in Iran privy to nuclear know-how. And these sorts of operations have negative side effects. Theoretically, if the US was behind the killing of Roshan or one of the other four (or five, depending on which reports you believe) scientists killed since 2007 and this became known, the Obama administration might have a more difficult time putting together a unified front consisting of Russia, China and other countries against Iran.

Some say that targeted killings strengthen extremists, though it is difficult to claim today that there is any significant “moderate” opposition challenging the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

In contrast, cyber warfare or other non-lethal covert operations such as the Stuxnet virus are less likely to hurt American attempts to muster a broad coalition against Iran. Some of these operations can be presented by the Iranians as “accidents.”

Economic sanctions, meanwhile, have so far not changed Iranian nuclear policy, though they have caused some damage. Indeed, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there have been numerous attempts to influence Iranian policy through economic sanctions.

Arguably, such sanctions helped end Iran’s war with Iraq in 1988. At the same time, Iran’s economy has been forced to adapt to functioning under various Western boycotts while developing alternative trade ties with Russia, China and several South and Central American countries.

Still, Tehran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, gateway to much of the world’s oil trade, could be a sign of its growing economic desperation. Iranians are plagued by inflation, unemployment and economic stagnation. And the economic situation will only worsen. Though a new round of Security Council-backed sanctions has been delayed due to opposition from Russia and China, the US and Europe have put in place their own penalties. Japan pledged to buy less Iranian oil while South Korea said it was looking for alternative suppliers. And even China can take advantage of a situation in which fewer countries are buying Iranian oil to put pressure on Tehran to lower prices.

A new US law that would penalize foreign companies that do business with Iran’s central bank and an oil embargo that EU foreign ministers plan to approve on January 23 could have an even bigger impact.

A combination of covert operations, economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, while at the same time keeping the military option “on the table,” is the only way to convince Tehran to back down. And maintaining a broad coalition of countries behind the sanctions is the best way to make them effective.

‘Mossad agents on the ground kil… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    The London-based Sunday Times published what it claimed is an account of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan’s last minutes on earth and the final preparations of the alleged Israeli Mossad agents that took his life.

According to the Times‘s unverified account published Sunday, the covert assassination mission was complicated by unusual activity at the Iranian intelligence headquarters in Tehran last Wednesday morning, but having decided that his agents “would never escape anyway,” the on-the-ground mission commander gave the go-ahead anyway.

From that point, almost all the details are known. Men on a motorcycle sped up to the scientist’s car, attached a magnetic explosive device and sped away. Roshan was critically injured in the resulting blast and died later in a Tehran hospital.

In addition to the Times, TIME magazine and senior Iranian officials have all in the past week accused Israel of being behind most recent, and a string of killings targeting Iranian scientists over the past two years.

While Israel has not taken responsibility or fully denied involvement, two top IDF officers, Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz and Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Yoav Mordechai sent out cryptic messages that provided Israel’s accusers with fodder for their speculation.

Stressing that he did not know who assassinated the scientist, Mordechai wrote on his Facebook page last week: “I will definitely not shed a tear for him.”

Gantz, speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee last week, said that 2012 would be a “critical year” for Tehran. He added there may be more “unnatural” events in Tehran.

For his part, President Shimon Peres said that as far as he knows, Israel was not involved in the assassination.

‘Quds Force to aid Syria if outside forces… JPost – Middle East.

    Iran would provide aid to Syria if it came under attack by external forces, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards official told pan-Arab Al Arabiya news channel Monday, after the US accused the Guards’ Quds Force of providing weapons to the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad in order to suppress protests.

The unnamed Iranian source insisted that Iran – one of Syria’s strongest allies – has “not yet” interfered in Syrian affairs in the ten months of conflict between opposition groups and government forces, and in which over 5,000 people have been killed according to the United Nations.

The source said that Iran believes that the situation in Syria is different than “other countries that saw similar protests,” adding that the Revolutionary Guards “surround” Syria through their allies in Iraq and Lebanon.

The Iranian military official also said that “sources” in Syria have assured Tehran through official channels that the situation in Syria is “stable,” despite reports of continued deaths in clashes between anti- and pro-government forces.

At least 32 people were gunned down by security forces Sunday, Al Jazeera reported according to opposition groups. Syrian authorities say 2,000 members of the security forces have also been killed.

Qatar’s emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani became the first Arab leader Saturday to express interest in sending troops to stop Assad’s “killing.” Thani made the comments in an interview with CBS.

A senior US official said Saturday that the recent visit of of senior commanders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force to Syria is the “strongest indication yet” that Iran is supplying the Assad regime with weapons, according to AFP.

Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, visited Syria this month, AFP reported. “We think this relates to Iranian support for the Syrian government’s attempts to suppress its people,” the senior US official said.

“We are confident that he was received at the highest levels of the Syrian government, including by President Assad,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “The US government believes Iran has supplied Syria with munitions” for use in the military crackdown.

The United States has long suspected Iran of supplying Damascus with weapons as Assad struggles to cope with mass protests against his rule.

Earlier in the week, Turkish customs officials intercepted four trucks suspected of carrying military equipment from Iran to Syria.

Pentagon denies ship movements related to Iran – World Watch – CBS News.

The USS Carl Vinson, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is seen near Hong Kong Dec. 27, 2011.

(Credit: AFP/Getty Images)

The Pentagon downplayed the arrival of another aircraft carrier strike group near the oil shipping lane that Iran has threatened to shut down amid increasing tensions between the nation and the United States, according to a Reuters report.

The group led by the USS Carl Vinson arrived Monday in the neighboring Arabian Sea to replace the strike group led by the USS John C. Stennis, which Reuters reported is expected to return to San Diego.”I don’t want to leave anybody with the impression that we’re somehow (speeding) two carriers over there because we’re concerned about what happened, you know, today in Iran,” Navy Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told Reuters Wednesday, the same day that an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed by a bomb two motorcyclists magnetically attached to his car. “It’s just not the case.”

Meanwhile, a third strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln was in the Indian Ocean en route to join the Vinson.

The Persian Gulf and surrounding waters haven’t been calm for the U.S. military since Iran warned the Stennis group not to return after leaving in December. On Tuesday, the U.S. Coast Guard rescued Iranian mariners from a vessel in distress less than a week after the Navy saved Iranian sailors from a crew of suspected Somali pirates.