WarSclerotic

Trying to make the cosmos out of nothing – 11 January 2012 – New Scientist.

This must be a good review.  He likes Kraus and loathes Dawkins!

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A Universe From Nothing: Why there is something rather than nothing by Lawrence Krauss is excellent guide to cutting-edge physics; less good on theology

Editorial: “The Genesis problem“

IN 1996, Lawrence Krauss visited the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. During his time there he gave a talk on his latest idea – that empty space might contain energy. Afterwards, Krauss recalls, a young physicist came up to him and said, “We will prove you wrong!”

That young physicist was Saul Perlmutter, who last month picked up a Nobel prize – not for proving Krauss wrong, as it turns out, but for proving him right. As part of the team who showed that the universe is expanding ever faster, Perlmutter had defeated his own instincts and confirmed Krauss’s hunch that “nothing” is not quite what it seems.

As Krauss elegantly argues in A Universe From Nothing, the accelerating expansion, indeed the whole existence of the cosmos, is most likely powered by “nothing”. Krauss is an exemplary interpreter of tough science, and the central part of the book, where he discusses what we know about the history of the universe – and how we know it – is perfectly judged. It is detailed but lucid, thorough but not stodgy.

It is remarkable to think that, a century ago, quantum theory was barely formed, general relativity was a work in progress and only a few scientists believed there was a beginning to the universe. We have come a long, long way since then by developing scientific tools that have proved themselves both reliable and remarkably fruitful. As Krauss’s insightful book shows, these days we really can talk with scientific rigour about the history and even the prehistoric origins of our universe.

Yet despite its clear strengths, A Universe From Nothing is not quite, as Richard Dawkins hopefully declares in the afterword, a “knockout blow” for the idea that a deity must have kicked the universe into being.

Krauss does want to deliver that blow: towards the end of the book, he promises that we really can have something from nothing – “even the laws of physics may not be necessary or required”. Ultimately, though, he has to perform a little sleight of hand. Space and time can indeed come from nothing; nothing, as Krauss explains beautifully, being an extremely unstable state from which the production of “something” is pretty much inevitable.

However, the laws of physics can’t be conjured from nothing. In the end, the best answer is that they arise from our existence within a multiverse, where all the universes have their own laws – ours being just so for no particular reason.

Krauss contends that the multiverse makes the question of what determined our laws of nature “less significant”. Truthfully, it just puts the question beyond science – for now, at least. That (together with the frustratingly opaque origins of a multiverse) means Krauss can’t quite knock out those who think there must ultimately be a prime mover. Not that this matters too much: the juvenile asides that litter the first third of the book (for example, “I am tempted to retort here that theologians are expert at nothing”) mean that, by the time we get to the fascinating core of his argument, Krauss will be preaching only to the converted.

That said, we should be happy to be preached to so intelligently. The same can’t be said about the Dawkins afterword, which is both superfluous and silly. A Universe From Nothing is a great book: readable, informative and topical. Inexplicably, though, Dawkins compares it to On the Origin of Species, and suggests it might be cosmology’s “deadliest blow to supernaturalism”. That leaves the reader with the entirely wrong sense of having just ingested a polemic, rather than an excellent guide to the cutting edge of physics. Krauss doesn’t need Dawkins; a writer this good can speak for himself.

Michael Brooks is the author of Free Radicals: The secret anarchy of science (Profile, 2011)

Iran closer to bomb than world realizes?.

Warning: 1-year prediction may be too optimistic

A report that Iran is about a year away from having the capability to build a nuclear bomb may be too optimistic, contended John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

“I worry the publicly available information is giving only a very small picture and that Iran is actually even much further along,” Bolton said today in a radio interview.

Bolton was on “Aaron Klein Investigative Radio” on New York’s WABC Radio. The former ambassador was asked about a statement from a former head of U.N. nuclear inspections claiming Iran is now just a year or so away from having enough enriched uranium to assemble a nuclear bomb.

Olli Heinonen wrote in an article published earlier this week that Iran made this advancement after switching production of its higher-grade enriched uranium to a new, underground site.

Reacting to the one-year timeline, Bolton stated, “I think it can be even less than that.”

The interview can be listened to at the Klein Online website.

Continued Bolton: “They’ve got, by publicly available information from the International Atomic Energy Agency, enough low-enriched uranium that if enriched up to weapons grade would be enough for four weapons.”

“So they’ve got more work to do, but they are already well on their way,” he said.

Bolton told Klein that 2012 will be a key year to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

“Even Secretary of Defense Panetta said last month that Iran could have a nuclear device within a year,” Bolton argued. “So they are very close, and obviously if they stepped up their efforts and worked harder, they may well be able to do it before then.

“So this is a clear and present danger,” he continued, “and I think it’s one of the reasons why you see the tension now in the region and why 2012 is going to be such an important year.”

In his article last week, Heinonen, who was the IAEA’s director-general until 2010, said that building a stock of 250 kg of 20-percent enriched uranium did not mean Iran could deploy a bomb without further engineering work.

Still, he allowed that 20-percent enriched uranium could within weeks be further purified to the 90-percent necessary for weapons grade.

Netanyahu deputy disappointed with Obama on Iran | Reuters.

(Reuters) – A senior Israeli official voiced disappointment in the Obama administration on Sunday, saying “election-year considerations” lay behind its caution over tough Iran sanctions sought by U.S. legislators.

While Washington has been talking tougher about Iran’s nuclear work and threat to block oil export routes out of the Gulf if hit with harsher sanctions, new U.S. measures adopted on December 31 gave President Barak Obama leeway on the scope of penalties on the Iranian central bank and oil exports.

Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s vice prime minister, contrasted the administration’s posture to that of France and Britain, which he said “are taking a very firm stand and understand sanctions must be imposed immediately.”

“In the United States, the Senate passed a resolution, by a majority of 100-to-one, to impose these sanctions, and in the U.S. administration there is hesitation for fear of oil prices rising this year, out of election-year considerations,” Yaalon told Israel Radio.

“In that regard, this is certainly a disappointment, for now.”

The Democratic president says he is determined to deny Tehran — which insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful needs only — the means to develop an atom bomb. His aides cast their sanctions strategy as a bid to work collaboratively with foreign powers and win over states that import Iranian oil without triggering price-boosting shocks to energy markets.

MIXED MESSAGES

The remarks by Yaalon, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, appeared to jar with praise centrist Defence Minister Ehud Barak offered last month for what he described as Obama’s resolve against Iran.

Running for re-election in the face of Republicans who hold sway over big pro-Israel constituencies, Obama has sought to burnish his credentials as a friend of the Jewish state despite having frosty relations with Netanyahu.

In a phone conversation with the prime minister on Thursday, Obama “reiterated his unshakable commitment to Israel’s security,” the White House said. Both sides said the leaders’ discussion dealt with Iran and Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking.

Reputed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal, Israel sees the makings of a mortal threat in Iran’s uranium enrichment and missile projects, and has threatened to resort to force if it deems diplomatic isolation of its foe a dead end.

The prospect of Israel worsening regional instability with a unilateral strike has stirred worry in war-weary Washington.

Obama’s top military adviser, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey, was due to make his first visit to Israel on Thursday.

Israeli media predicted Dempsey would seek to persuade his hosts not to “surprise” the United States on Iran. The U.S. embassy had no immediate information about the visit’s agenda.

Yaalon, himself a former top armed forces commander, said Israel should not “leap forward” to attack Iran.

“But Israel has to be ready to defend itself,” he said. “Let’s hope we do not arrive at that moment.”

Netanyahu sounded sanguine last week about the efficacy of big-power pressure on Iran, telling an Australian newspaper: “For the first time I see Iran wobble … under the sanctions that have been adopted and especially under the threat of strong sanctions on their central bank.”

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Never Again Means Act, Not Watch.

As a grandchild of Holocaust survivors, I have heard references to the term “Never Again” for as many years as I can remember – and today in the Middle East with a madman building a nuclear bomb, one wonders whether “Never Again” is just a slogan or a mantra that the world will act upon. One wonders if “Never Again” means that the world will take decisive action alongside Israel or “Never Again” means that the Jewish state alone will protect Jewish lives and interests.

There’s little question that while the Iran issue is heating up, the American administration has acted with caution towards Iran. There has been three years of “engagement” with Iran and diplomatic outreach, and despiteAhmadinejad’s clear rhetoric it’s starting to be quite clear that a confrontation is in the making  – and I hope America and the world will stand with Israel – but if not, thankfully there is today a Jewish state. Adding to the tension on this issue we heard Moshe Ya’alon, Israel’s vice prime minister voice his disappointment with President Obama’s approach on Iran. Ya’alon said “there is hesitation for fear of oil prices rising this year, out of election-year considerations.”

We saw this week, like a scene from a thriller movie, the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist by a hitman on a motorcycle.  Following the assassination, the media and PR spin began. The Obama administration condemned the attack in Tehran which killed the nuclear scientist: “We condemn any assassination or attack on an innocent person, and we express our sympathies to the family,” said Victoria Nuland of the US State Department.

One wonders if someone who is building a nuclear bomb to harm western cvilization and kill people is in fact innocent?  It begs the questions, what does “Never Again” mean, if not acting to stop those who seek to kill? Owning 5WPR, I am well versed on the importance of media pressure upon government positions. Reading an op-ed in ABC Australia it’s clear that many will start asking questions and naturally some will condemn Israel.  Others will condemn the very nature of the attack itself:

“In the end, it comes down to a simple question: do we endorse car bombings, or not? Do we believe any of the rhetoric that’s been mouthed for the last decade (“all terrorist acts are criminal and must be universally condemned,” etc)? If so, why won’t we speak out? Again, this is textbook stuff. Osama bin Laden could not have composed a more classical apologia for terror. For if, then, the physicists of Iran are individually responsible for the policies of their regime, one presumes the scientists of the US might be held to account for the high-tech weapons used by America in Iraq. What Ariel Dorfman says about torture rings just as true about terrorism: every regime that uses it, does so in “the name of salvation, some superior goal, some promise of paradise”, but the invocation of good intentions doesn’t change the moral calculus involved.”

He who opposes evil must stand by Israel and thankfully, as one Iranian official told Reuters, there is a “sense of spreading paranoia” among scientists well aware that three others have died under similar circumstances in the past two years.  “Never Again” from a military standpoint means just as Israel’s military chief of staff told a parliamentary committee this week “Iran should expect more “unnatural” events in 2012.”

The Obama administration wrongly condemned someone who killed an engineer helping to build a weapon designed to kill people, and he should act different following similar acts in the future. With a Secretary of State who compared gender discrimination against female Israeli soldiers to be the same as the situation facing women in Iran, it may be too much to ask.

Those of us who believe in “Never Again” have the moral responsibility to stand up and say that Iran must be stopped before they have a chance to destroy the Jewish state and inflict grave harm on the West.

Ronn Torossian is the CEO of 5WPR, a Top 25 PR Agency and author of best-selling PR book “For Immediate Release: Shape Minds, Build Brands, and Deliver Results with Game-Changing Public Relations,” available for purchase here.

Commentary: Iran gives the West a gift | Guest columns | Fort Worth, Arlington, Northeast Tar….

(An interesting analysis.  I still believe the best possible option is the use of an EMP bomb.  This would save countless innocent lives, eliminate any chance of Iranian retaliation  and end the power of the regime.  Instead of spending money and lives on destroying Iran, much less money could be used to help the new Iran rebuild its electronic infrastructure after the Mullahs fall. – JW)

By Paul V. Kane

Special to McClatchy Newspapers

The most recent threat by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the flow of the world’s oil supply, while frightening to some, really represents a golden opportunity.

Truly, it’s been a decade of cat-and-mouse games between U.N. inspectors trying to genuinely peek under the hood of Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program and Iran’s misdirecting, parsing, spinning and lying, all the while putting up new secret nuclear facilities and acquiring nuclear components from the global black market.

Over 10 long years, the international community has alternated between the extremes of totally ignoring Iran, to being engaged but exasperated by a lack of good options, to saber-rattling threats of war. From a political standpoint, it’s been a manic decade.

The political classes in the West and Asia seem to be divided into two camps; the advocates for diplomacy and negotiation, or, the proponents of bombing Iran’s nuclear sites. But then a gift arrived, ironically, from Iran.

Senior Iranian political and military officials in December threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil from flowing to world markets. Iran’s threat came in response to toothy new U.S.-European sanctions being signed.

These sanctions squeeze Iran’s Central Bank from being able to sell Iran’s oil. They penalize those members of the global community who continue to trade with Iran.

This is not an act of war (as Iran claims), but it will extract a damn painful economic price. So Iran has set a new “red line” with the West, should the latest sanctions hit.

Iran has said it will attack the global economy and hurt the West and her Asian allies by creating a spike in oil prices and cutting available supplies by way of blocking the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is by far the world’s most important choke point through which 20% of all oil traded worldwide passes. The threat betrays a mounting desperation within Iran and it gives the West options it has lacked to date. How so?

Iran has promised to militarily block the Strait if the new sanctions take effect. With this act, Iran will have taken overt aggression against not just the West but the world.

So where is the gift in this tale?

The world economy can hardly be held hostage to Iran’s whims and U.S. leaders will be left with the responsibility of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz using force. So now instead of there being just two unattractive options for dealing with Iran (diplomacy vs. military force) – – a new, “third way” is available.

As soon as the first Iranian mines hit the water to block the Strait of Hormuz to stop oil flows, Iran would have committed an act of war against the world economy. The international community and the U.S. would have great latitude for military action to free the Strait.

How could this unfold? A military plan would have to include the elimination of the offending Iranian ships or subs laying mines and the destruction of missiles that might menace shipping. Most of Iran’s Navy would find itself gracing the bottom of the sea. Major U.S. Marine amphibious landings on Iran’s coast and Army airborne drops deep inside the sparsely populated Hormozgan region would seize and create a physical cordon, an occupied buffer zone between Iran and the Strait.

It would be a very long time before the West gave this territory back to Iran.

The threat to the Strait and shipping would be eliminated. The U.S. would have the advantage of “strategic surprise.” The Iranian leadership is comfortable today in the false notion that the seizure of sovereign Iranian territory is inconceivable.

Most importantly, by seizing Hormozgan, the West would have a forward base from within Iran to conduct attacks on the known nuclear sites. No longer could Iran find a sense of security in how difficult it would be for Israel or the West to conduct a long-range air attack from thousands of miles away on its nuclear sites.

Strike aircraft (and now, more worrisome to Iran’s regime, the boots on the ground of elite Special Forces) would be just 60-90 minutes away from Iranian nuclear sites.

Iran’s threat to block the Strait has given the West far clearer options. Played right, the current situation can be made into a game changer. By changing the calculus and dynamics of the negotiation, the current impasse can be broken. A diplomatic solution to the crisis might become far more attractive to Iran.

No sane person wants a war. As long as the pressure on Iran is real and mounting, diplomacy will likely have a much better chance of succeeding.

There now exists the opportunity for the West to leverage upon Iran’s threat, and make it clear that should Iran block the Strait (or should any conflict arise), it will mean the punitive seizure of Iran’s southern state of Hormozgan.

Perhaps in this way a military conflict between the West and Iran can be averted and a peaceful deal done. This may be the best way today to end the threat and, to finally, end Iran’s rogue nuclear weapon adventure.

ABOUT THE WRITER

Paul Kane is a Marine veteran of Iraq and a former fellow of Harvard’s International Security Program. From 2008-2011, he worked in the Pentagon. The views expressed here are strictly the author’s own personal views.

Saudi Arabia says it can raise oil production to fill any supply gap.

Monday, 16 January 2012

The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, says that the rising tension between Iran and the West is not good for the oil market or the price of the commodity. (Reuters)

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Iran warns of dire consequences for Saudi Arabia if they increase oil production to help the West | Mail Online.

Iran today turned its attention towards its Gulf neighbours, warning Saudi Arabia that it would suffer consequences if they raised oil output to replace Iranian crude.

With the EU contemplating a ban on oil imports from Iran, for their refusal to halt nuclear activity, Tehran officials have told several Arab countries not to negotiate with the United States and Europe.

China’s premier was in Saudi Arabia on Sunday probing for greater access to its huge oil and gas reserves and Britain voiced confidence a once hesitant EU would soon ban oil imports from Iran.

Negotiations: Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, right, talks with British Prime Minister David Cameron, far left,

That follows British Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to the Saudi capital Riyadh where he discussed Iran’s position with King Abdullah whilst also requesting an increased output from the Saudi reserves.

Dead: Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed in a magnetic bomb attack

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2086713/Iran-claims-evidence-U-S-car-bombing-killed-nuclear-scientist.html#ixzz1jaBcIM3z

Iran has been in turmoil following the fifth bomb attack in two years that killed 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmad Roshan in Tehran last Wednesday.

Ratcheting up the war of words with the West, the Iranians claimed that they have proof that the CIA was behind the killing.

They also sent a ‘letter of condemnation’ to Britain accusing London of having an ‘obvious role’ in the bombing.

Both Britain and the United States have condemned the killing of civilians. Israeli officials, in contrast, have hinted at covert campaigns against Iran without admitting involvement.

It said that the chain of assassinations began after British intelligence chief Sir John Sawers hinted in 2010 at undercover operations against the Islamic Republic.

Sir John was quoted at the time as saying that intelligence-led initiatives were needed to make it more difficult for countries like Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

He said one of the agency’s roles was to investigate efforts by states to build atomic warheads in violation of their international legal obligations and identify ways to slow down their access to vital materials and technology.

Killing: This is the car the Iranian scientist was sitting in when he was blown up by the magnetic bomb

The letter said the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists had ‘started exactly after the British official John Sawers declared the beginning of intelligence operations against Iran.’

The Iranian Foreign Ministry handed a letter claiming it had evidence the US plotted the scientist’s death to the Swiss Ambassador in Tehran.

Switzerland has represented American interests in Iran since relations were broken off with Washington shortly after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

‘We have reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided and supported by the CIA,’ said the note, according to Iran’s state media.

Tehran has urged the United Nations Security Council to condemn the latest killing, claiming it was carried out to undermine its nuclear ambitions.

General Masoud Jazayeri, spokesman for Iran’s Joint Armed Forces Staff, said: ‘The enemies of the Iranian nation, especially the United States, Britain and the Zionist regime, or Israel, have to be held responsible for their activities.’

Aftermath: The killing has sparked outrage in Iran, and state TV broadcast footage Saturday of hundreds of students marching in Tehran

While the Iranians insist they are merely trying to harness nuclear power for energy uses, the West and Israel says Tehran wants to build bombs.

Iran has threatened to close off the key oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz if new sanctions are imposed on its lifeblood oil exports.

Britain and other western powers have vowed to take military action to keep the channel open.

Senior US military officials said mine-sweeping dolphins would be the first line of offence if Iran carried out its threat to choke off the Strait.

The Navy-trained dolphins would be used to identify Iranian mines, according to retired Admiral Tim Keating, former commander of the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain.

The top U.S. military commander is scheduled for talks in Israel this week at a time when the U.S. is concerned that Israel might be preparing to attack Iran over its nuclear program.

On a mission: U.S. Army General Martin Dempsey will head to Israel for discussions

The Israeli Defence Ministry confirmed the planned visit Thursday by Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. It did not give his agenda for talks with Israelis – but Iran is expected to be at the top.

Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran to be an existential threat because of its nuclear program, missile capabilities, support for anti-Israel militants in Lebanon and Gaza and frequent references by its president to the destruction of Israel.

Israel has repeatedly hinted it might take military action if international sanctions fail to stop Iran’s nuclear development.

The U.S., Israel and other Western nations believe Iran is developing atomic weapons. Tehran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

In talks: President Obama, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, discussed the Iran situation via telephone

Gen Dempsey’s visit will be his first official trip to Israel since he assumed command of the joint chiefs on September 30. His predecessor, Adm. Mike Mullen, made several visits to Israel during his four-year term.

On Thursday President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation in a telephone conversation.

The Obama administration is concerned that Iran’s recent claim that it is expanding nuclear operations with more advanced equipment may push Israel closer to a strike.

The U.S. still hopes that international pressure will persuade Iran to back down, but the Islamic regime shows no sign it would willingly give up a project that has become a point of national pride.

The U.S. has led a series of economic sanctions against the regime.
On Sunday, Israeli Cabinet Minister Moshe Yaalon said he was disappointed that the U.S. has not expanded the measures to further damage Iran’s central bank and its energy industry.help-West.html#ixzz1jcx3E04Z

Exposé: How the Mossad Killed Iranian Scientist – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu

Scientist Roshan

Arutz Sheva

The Mossad worked for months to stage the assassination of its latest Iranian nuclear scientist target last Wednesday, The London Times reported Sunday.

Quoting unnamed Israeli sources, the newspaper said that well-trained team of agents working in Iran set up the bomb attack on Mustafa Ahmadi Roshan, a scientist at the Natanz nuclear facility. He also was involved in missile development.

Israel has publicly said it knows nothing about the killing, the latest in what has been termed as “Israel‘s secret war” that has pinpointed dozens of scientists and officials who have died in mysterious airplane crashes and in street assassinations the past three years.

The closest Israel came to admitting involvement was a comment by IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gants to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee last week, where he said that there probably will be “unnatural” events in Tehran this year. His statement and the leaks to the Times indicate as wanrings to Iran that Israel can undermine the regime from within the country and provide enough information to help it stage a military attack.

Roshan was killed by a magnetic bomb placed by agents on a motorcycle, one of the favorite methods for eliminating Iranian nuclear scientists.

“There is zero tolerance for mistakes. By nature, every failure not only risks the neck of the agents but also risks turning into an international scandal,” the source told the British paper.

It said that agents followed Roshan’s movements from a “safe house” and also staked out Iran’s intelligence headquarters in Tehran, where unusual activity the morning of the assassination almost forced an abortion of the strike.

Iran apparently took steps to protect Roshan, whose bodyguard checked his Peugeot 405 vehicle for explosives before driving.

The motorcycle used in the attack was hidden in a garage, and after Roshan and his driver entered the vehicle around 8 a.m., the Mossad agents gave the order to carry out the operation, the Times stated.

The masked motorcyclist attached the magnetic bomb to the car, and it exploded exactly nine seconds later, mortally wounding Roshan and his driver.

THE DAILY STAR :: News :: Middle East :: Iran makes arrests for scientist killing: speaker.