Archive for January 12, 2012

The Endgame Behind the Iranian Nuclear Scientist AssassinationsThe Endgame Behind the Iranian Nuclear-Scientist Assassinations

January 12, 2012

The Endgame Behind the Iranian Nuclear Scientist AssassinationsThe Endgame Behind the Iranian Nuclear-Scientist Assassinations – The Daily Beast.

Jan 11, 2012 9:59 PM EST

The United States and Israel say they weren’t behind the killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist Wednesday—the fourth such attack in two years—but it’s clear as much heat is being applied to Iran as is possible short of war, says Michael Adler.

The latest suspected assassination of an Iranian scientist is a chilling reminder that the Iranian nuclear crisis is like an iceberg. What you see is already massive and inscrutable, but it is nothing compared with what might be going on beneath the surface.

The question is, just how many tools have countries like the United States and Israel deployed in their quest to keep Iran from getting the bomb? A great deal of creativity is being applied to keep the endgame from being one of two things no one seems to want: Iran getting nuclear weapons or someone attacking the Islamic Republic to stop it from getting them.

The conflict is escalating. It pits an Iran that says it does not seek nuclear weapons and has a peaceful program to produce energy against a suspicious United States. Washington says that if Iran does use its program to go for the bomb, it will be stopped. The killing of the scientist comes as the Iranians have started production of more highly enriched uranium, which can be made into nuclear-power fuel or the explosive core for an atomic weapon, at the Fordow site in Qum province—built into a mountain, and thus well protected from air attacks.

The uranium enrichment shows Iran is clearly defiant, even as the United States and its allies are moving toward powerful sanctions against Tehran’s oil sales as a punitive measure against the Islamic Republic, to rein in its nuclear ambitions. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which oil is shipped out of the most prolific oil-producing region in the world, if such sanctions take effect.

attack-on-iranian-scientists-adler.jpg
An assailant on a motorcycle attached a magnetic bomb to the car of an Iranian university professor working at a key nuclear facility, killing him and wounding two people on Wednesday, Mehdi Marizad / AP Photo

While no one will confirm that a covert campaign is being waged, many see such a strategy as just the sort of thing one would want to use against an Islamic Republic believed to be seeking the bomb. The campaign would include the Stuxnet computer virus, allegedly unleashed in 2009 to destroy about a fifth of the centrifuges turning at Iran’s main uranium-enrichment plant in Natanz, and booby traps on equipment Iran buys abroad that ensure the equipment malfunctions once put to use.

And then there are assassinations. The facts from Wednesday: 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed when a motorcyclist attached a magnetized bomb to his car as he was driving to work. Roshan was director of commercial affairs at the Natanz plant. The attack was the fourth of its kind on an Iranian scientist in two years, with three of the men killed and the fourth surviving to become the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.

The U.S. strategy means Iran’s turning on higher enrichment at its mountain nuclear site at Fordow could be less of a trigger for Israeli military action than had been expected.

Iran has claimed the attacks are terrorism by the United States, Israel, and Britain, but all have denied involvement. The Israeli reaction was bellicose just the same. Israeli military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai wrote on his Facebook page: “I don’t know who took revenge on the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear.” Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz told a parliamentary panel Tuesday that 2012 could be a “critical year” for Iran due to, among other factors, “things that happen to it unnaturally.”

The bottom line is that matters seem to have escalated—with as much heat being applied to Iran as is possible short of war. An Israeli official told journalists in December that it was hoped this pressure might possibly lead to regime change in Iran by the spring. U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, who has made confusing comments about U.S. resolve against Iran, tweaked the American position again on Sunday, when he said Iran had not made the decision to develop nuclear weapons but was amassing the capability to do so if it chose to. Panetta said the U.S. red line was that Iran would not be allowed to cross this Rubicon and go on to develop a nuclear weapon. Other states, such as France and Israel, think developing a weapon is exactly what Iran is now doing. But they are going along with Washington so far, as they see tough sanctions and a credible military threat as a way to stop Iran’s suspect nuclear work. Add into the mix alleged covert actions to which no one will admit.

The U.S. strategy means Iran’s turning on higher enrichment at its Fordow nuclear site could be less of a trigger for Israeli military action than had been expected. Iran is believed to have hundreds, rather than the thousands of centrifuges it plans, enriching at Fordow. The centrifuges are not believed to be the advanced type that can churn out enriched uranium faster.

Israel has been concerned that putting centrifuges in such a well-protected site could close the window on possible military action against Iran. But Fordow is not yet fully outfitted. And as a result of the seen and unseen actions against Iran over the past few months, and barring an Iranian move that tips the balance toward hostilities, the U.S. and Israel may be more patient—which offers hope for a solution short of war.

The brinksmanship with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz

January 12, 2012

The brinksmanship with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz – World – CBC News.

The world became a much more jittery place this week as the U.S. and Iran launched their respective warships and rattled their rocket-laden sabres at each other in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, literally the Iranian coast.

Heck, even the head of the U.S. Navy admitted on Tuesday that he’s losing sleep thinking of how to respond to Iran’s threat to blockade global shipping along the Persian Gulf’s narrow strait, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil travels each year.

Even if U.S. naval and air forces were to quickly curtail an Iranian blockade, the very act would likely spark another global economic panic. Analysts predict oil would soar an additional $50 a barrel, causing panic inflation and currency wobbles around the world.

Every day seems to bring a new flashpoint. On Wednesday, another senior Iranian scientist connected to its uranium enrichment program was assassinated in a bomb attack that Tehran immediately blamed on Israel and the U.S.

The killing follows the pattern of the mysterious covert war I wrote about last month that is being waged inside Iran against its nuclear program.

The campaign has already killed or wounded three other scientists there and earlier in the week. In a separate action, the Iranians sentenced a former U.S. Marine to death as a spy. He had been visiting family in Iran.

Sanctions

These current tensions stem directly from the severe new economic sanctions that the U.S. and other Western countries are trying to apply to Iran to get it to come clean on its nuclear program.

An Iranian warship fires a new medium-ranged missile during a recent 10-day war games in the Strait of Hormuz this month. A U.S. carrier group left the Gulf while the war games were underway but is on its way back. An Iranian warship fires a new medium-ranged missile during a recent 10-day war games in the Strait of Hormuz this month. A U.S. carrier group left the Gulf while the war games were underway but is on its way back. (Reuters)On New Year’s Eve President Barack Obama signed legislation that would penalize foreign companies that deal with Iran’s central bank, the main clearing house for its central commodity, oil.

Many European countries have also agreed in principle to an embargo against Iranian oil, and the U.S. is trying to lobby Asian nations, China in particular, to follow suit.

Why is this so significant? After all there have been sanctions of one kind or another against Iran ever since its radicals seized the U.S. embassy there in 1979. These have included UN-approved sanctions aimed at blocking Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons technology.

But while past sanctions have hurt Iran’s economy by denying it technology and outside investment, this new round would cut off the very oil revenue that supports much of the government and its operations.

In short, it would cause chaos in an already battered economy.

Panic hoarding

Within Iran, the public fear of new sanctions has already sparked runs on its banks and caused panic hoarding of market goods.

Inflation has driven prices up 30 per cent, reports say, and there is even fear of national bankruptcy as the Iranian currency falls into a tailspin.

To the Iranian government this amounts to outright economic war.

It is convinced the sanctions are designed not just to block its uranium enrichment program but to weaken the government so that it might be toppled in parliamentary elections in March.

In the West, meanwhile, those supporting these tougher sanctions believe it is the only peaceful way to force Iran to give up its nuclear arms ambitions.

It is also argued that the sanctions help deter Israel from attacking suspected Iranian weapons sites and thus dragging the U.S. and the whole region into a wider war.

Second thoughts

But Iranian threats, particularly those involving the Strait of Hormuz, are having some effect.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow inlet and opening at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, and is only about 54 kilometres across.The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow inlet and opening at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, and is only about 54 kilometres across. (CBC)In the past few days several European countries, terrified of adding a world oil crisis on top of the current euro problems, have indicated they will rethink the sanctions before they are to decide on them on Jan. 23.

Washington is also having trouble persuading China, Japan and South Korea to cut back on their purchases of Iranian oil.

In the U.S., many believe the Obama administration took these tougher measures in part to counter Republican charges that Washington was not doing enough to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

But now many observers feel that the sanctions themselves have reached the point where they risk provoking an unstable Iranian regime into desperate acts of retaliation.

Iran has hinted at times that it may be willing to negotiate over its nuclear plans, but it’s widely believed that the regime fears that would leave it looking toothless and militarily vulnerable, as Libya was after it gave up its nukes.

From Tehran’s perspective, better perhaps to be pre-emptively aggressive to try to scare the world off sanctions once and for all.

A ‘wounded Iran’

But the new Obama legislation is not likely to go away and it will ensure that international trade with Iran is only going to get tougher.

Already, many countries are looking for new oil suppliers to bypass Iranian ports, and they are building up strategic reserves in case of disruption.

Apart from the fear that Iran may close down the Gulf, even if only temporarily, the continued threats may drive shipping insurance to record levels.

The price paid by Teheran for this would be enormous, of course. So it may all be a bluff. But this is the way some states slide, by miscalculation, into war.

“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,” Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital warned recently. “There is a peril of engaging in brinkmanship from all sides.”

The warning is echoed by Vali Nasr, a former Obama administration adviser and a leading Mideast scholar, who feels the danger of a wounded Iran is currently being underestimated in Washington.

“The Obama administration talks of sanctions as an alternative to war, but we’re in a situation where economic sanctions are putting us at greater risk of war,” he said in a recent PBS interview.

It’s always an ominous sign when there seems there is no clear way for diehard enemies to back down from their rigid stands. Add in the internal politics — infighting within the Iranian government, and intense ideological divisions in the U.S. presidential campaign, both in an election year — and that puts extraordinary pressures on their respective leaders to look tough.

The rest of us can only hope that they know where the limits are.

Covert actions used against Iran by Israel, U.S., instead of overt strike: experts

January 12, 2012

Covert actions used against Iran by Israel, U.S., instead of overt strike: experts.

Ahmadi-Roshan was killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran. (Reuters)

Ahmadi-Roshan was killed by a bomb placed on his car by a motorcyclist in Tehran. (Reuters)

Experts believe that covert actions that include a campaign of assassinations, bombings, cyber attacks and defections are the modus-operandi used mainly by Israel to weaken the Iranian regime and to halt the country’s attempts to develop nuclear capabilities.

The latest strike against Iran came in the form of the assassination of a 32-year-old nuclear scientist, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, on Wednesday, when a magnetic bomb was placed on his car.

Roshan, who is at least the fifth Iranian scientist with nuclear knowledge to be killed since 2007, was working as a department supervisor at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. Natanz is considered by the West to be a location at which Iran is working on the technology to develop nuclear weapons.

“Sabotage and assassination is the way to go, if you can do it,” Patrick Clawson, director of the Iran Security Initiative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told The New York Times in an interview published on Thursday.

Clawson said that a covert campaign was far preferable to overt airstrikes by Israel or the United States on suspected Iranian nuclear sites.

“It doesn’t provoke a nationalist reaction in Iran, which could strengthen the regime. And it allows Iran to climb down if it decides the cost of pursuing a nuclear weapon is too high,” he added.

On Wednesday, the United States condemned the killing of the scientist and denied Iran’s accusations that it was behind the assassination. Iran also blamed Israel and the U.S. for the Stuxnet computer virus that attacked Iran’s nuclear program in 2010.

Meanwhile, a former senior Israeli security official, who would speak of the covert campaign only in general terms and on the condition of anonymity, told The New York Times that uncertainty about who was responsible was useful. “It’s not enough to guess,” he said. “You can’t prove it, so you can’t retaliate. When it’s very, very clear who’s behind an attack, the world behaves differently.”

The former Israeli official said that Iran carried out many assassinations of enemies, mostly Iranian opposition figures, during the 1980s and 1990s, and had been recently accused of plotting to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States in Washington.

It has been said that Iran has killed people it considered enemies outside of the Islamic republic. In 1992, four Iranian dissidents were killed in a Berlin restaurant, and it is believed by many that Tehran was behind the murders.

At the same time, historians say that Israel used assassination as a statecraft tool to aid its creation, in 1948. According to analysts, Israel has killed dozens of Palestinian and other fighters and a small number of foreign scientists, military officials or people accused of being Holocaust collaborators.

The founder of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in 2004 inside Palestinian territories in Gaza.

But Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that at least some of the murdered scientists could have been killed by the Iranian government, he told the Times. Some of them had shown sympathy for the Iranian opposition, he said, and not all appeared to have been high-ranking experts.

“I think there is reason to doubt the idea that all the hits have been carried out by Israel,” Mr. Sadjadpour said. “It’s very puzzling that Iranian nuclear scientists, whose movements are likely carefully monitored by the state, can be executed in broad daylight, sometimes in rush-hour traffic, and their culprits never found.”

Meanwhile, Mousa Sharififarid, an Iran expert, told Al Arabiya.net that it is true that some analysts blamed the Iranian government for the killing of one scientist in 2009, as he was a sympathizer with the anti-Iran regime Green Movement, but Roshan was working for the Natanz site, at which only highly loyal pro-regime individuals are employed.

Sharififarid said there was an explicit condemnation from the U.S. over Roshan’s assassination, but Israel did not voice the same political sentiment.

On Wednesday, an Israeli military spokesman, Brigadier General Yoav Mordechai, wrote on his official Facebook page that “I don’t know who took revenge on the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear.”

On Thursday, Iran accused the IAEA of giving information to Israel and the U.S. to facilitate the killing of its scientists.

US military moves carriers, denies Iran link

January 12, 2012

US military moves carriers, denies Iran link | Al-Masry Al-Youm: Today’s News from Egypt.

<p>US aircraft carrier in Strait of Hormuz</p>

Photographed by Reuters

The US military said on Wednesday that a new aircraft carrier strike group had arrived in the Arabian Sea and that another was on its way to the region, but denied any link to recent tensions with Iran and portrayed the movements as routine.

The shift in the powerful US naval assets comes at a moment of heightened tensions with Iran, which has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important oil shipping lane — if US and EU sanctions over its nuclear program cut off its oil exports.

The US military has said it will halt any blockade of the strategic strait and the top US naval officer acknowledged on Tuesday that preparing for a potential conflict there was something that “keeps me awake at night.”

Still, the Pentagon denied any direct link between recent tensions and the movement of aircraft carriers.

“I don’t want to leave anybody with the impression that we’re somehow [speeding] two carriers over there because we’re concerned about what happened, you know, today in Iran. It’s just not the case,” said Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman.

Military officials said the USS Carl Vinson arrived in the Arabian Sea on Monday to replace the outgoing USS John C. Stennis carrier strike group, which Iran last week warned not to return to the Gulf after departing in late December.

The Stennis was due to return to its home port in San Diego but the Pentagon did not say when that would happen.

Another carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, concluded a port visit to Thailand on Tuesday and was now in the Indian Ocean. It is on track to join the Vinson in the Central Command area of operations, which begins in the neighboring Arabian Sea.

It is “not unusual to have two carriers in the CENTCOM theater at the same time,” a second US military official said.

Another official said there had been two carriers in the Gulf region at least twice in the past 18 months.

Tensions between Iran and the United States ratcheted up again in the past week. Iran started an underground uranium enrichment plant and sentenced an American to death for spying. Washington and Europe have stepped up efforts to cripple Iran’s oil exports, and Tehran on Wednesday blamed US and Israeli agents for killing an Iranian nuclear scientist.

Israel declined to comment on the killing and the United States denied any US role and condemned the attack, in which the scientist was blown up by a bomb attached to his car by a motorbike hitman.

Iran had warned the Stennis not to re-enter the Gulf and it is unclear when another US carrier will enter Gulf waters. The Pentagon has suggested only that, sooner or later, a carrier will pass through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf.

“We routinely operate our ships — all of our ships, all of our types of ships — inside the Arabian Gulf and that will continue,” Kirby said.

U.S. wins Japan support over Iran nuclear programme | Reuters

January 12, 2012

U.S. wins Japan support over Iran nuclear programme | Reuters.

EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on leaving the office to report, film or take pictures in Tehran. A policeman walks past the car belonging to Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan at a blast site outside a university in northern Tehran January 11, 2012. REUTERS/IIPA/Sajad Safari

(Reuters) – The United States won key support from Japan on Thursday for tough oil sanctions against Iran over a nuclear programme that the West suspects is geared to developing atomic bombs.

Japan pledged to take concrete action to cut Iranian oil imports after visiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged Tokyo, a major importer, to help deprive Iran of vital oil revenues. In Iran, sanctions are biting, with the rial currency losing 20 percent of value against the dollar in the past week.

Escalating tensions over Iran’s enrichment of uranium for nuclear energy, which has shifted to an underground mountain bunker better protected from possible air strikes, has raised fears for the flow of world oil supplies and even war.

An Iranian nuclear scientist was blown up in his car by a motorbike hitman on Wednesday. Tehran blamed Israeli and U.S. agents but insisted this would not derail its nuclear activity. Washington denied involvement in the attack and condemned it, while Israel declined comment.

The morning rush-hour bombing – the fifth daylight attack on technical experts in two years – killed 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan. The chemical engineer’s driver was also killed, Iranian media said, and a passer-by was slightly hurt.

The attack came in a week of heightened tensions.

Iran has launched an underground enrichment plant and sentenced an American to death for spying, while Washington and Europe have stepped up efforts to cripple Iran’s oil exports for its refusal to halt work the West says betrays an ambition to build nuclear weapons. Iran says its aims are entirely peaceful.

Tehran has threatened to choke the West’s supply of Gulf oil if its exports are hit by sanctions, drawing a U.S. warning that its navy is ready to open fire to prevent any blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 35 percent of the world’s seaborne traded oil passes.

In Tokyo, Geithner welcomed Japanese cooperation in tightening the screws on Iran, a positive sign for Washington after China and Russia rebuffed sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

China, Japan and India are Iran’s top three buyers, taking more than 40 percent of its crude exports. The European Union, which collectively buys another fifth or so of Iran’s exported crude, has committed to banning imports of oil from Tehran, an OPEC member and the world’s No. 5 crude exporter.

EU diplomats said on Wednesday they were advancing toward agreement on banning imports of crude after a six-month grace period and banning petrochemical products after three – provisions similar to U.S. new legislation. It was likely, however, that EU firms could continue to take Iranian oil in payment for outstanding debts.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said he shared serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear capabilities but expressed concern that the sanctions could seriously affect the Japanese and world economies, depending on how they were implemented.

President Barack Obama’s administration has also announced that it would freeze out financial institutions that deal with Iran’s central bank out of U.S. markets.

“We are exploring ways to cut Iran’s central bank off from the global financial system. We are in the early stages of consulting with Japan and our other allies,” Geithner told reporters after the talks with Japanese leaders.

IRAN DEFIANCE

On a visit to Cuba on Wednesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said nothing about the bomb attack but flashed the victory sign and said Iran had done nothing to warrant enmity from its enemies.

“Have we assaulted someone? Have we wanted more than we should have? Never, never. We have only asked to speak about and establish justice,” said Ahmadinejad.

Analysts saw the latest assassination, which would have involved considerable expertise, as less a reaction to recent events than part of a longer-running, covert effort to thwart Iran’s nuclear development programme that has also included suspected computer viruses and mystery explosions.

While fears of war have forced up oil prices, the region has seen periods of sabre-rattling and limited bloodshed before without reaching all-out conflict. But a willingness in Israel, which sees an Iranian atom bomb as a threat to its existence, to attack Iranian nuclear sites, with or without U.S. backing, has heightened the sense that a crisis is coming.

Israel, whose military chief said on Tuesday that Iran could expect to suffer more mysterious mishaps, declined comment on Wednesday’s bomb attack.

While Israeli or Western involvement seemed plausible to independent analysts, a role for local Iranian factions or other regional interests engaged in a deadly shadow war of bluff and sabotage could not be ruled out.

The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, which has failed to persuade the West that its quest for nuclear power has no hidden military goal, said the killing of Ahmadi-Roshan would not deter it. “We will continue our path without any doubt … Our path is irreversible,” it said in a statement carried on television.

“The heinous acts of America and the criminal Zionist regime will not disrupt our glorious path … The more you kill us, the more our nation will awake.”

Iran’s leaders, preparing for the first national election since a disputed presidential vote in 2009 brought street protests against 32 years of clerical rule, are struggling to contain internal tensions. Defiance of Israel and Western powers plays well with many who will vote in March.

U.S. DENIAL

In Washington, White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said: “The United States had absolutely nothing to do with this (bombing) … We strongly condemn all acts of violence, including acts of violence like what is being reported today.”

Israel, which has a history of covert killings abroad, declined comment, though army spokesman Yoav Mordechai wrote on Facebook: “I don’t know who settled the score with the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding any tears.”

Analysts say that killing scientists – especially those whose lack of personal protection suggests a relatively junior role – is unlikely to have much direct impact on Iran’s nuclear programme, which Western governments allege is seeking to enrich enough uranium highly enough to let it build weapons.

COVERT WAR

Sabotage – like mysterious reported explosions at military facilities or the Stuxnet computer virus widely suspected to have been deployed by Israel and the United States to disrupt nuclear facilities in 2010 – may have had more direct effects.

However, assassinations may be intended to discourage Iranians with nuclear expertise from working on the programme.

Bruno Tertrais from France’s Strategic Research Foundation said: “It certainly has a psychological effect on scientists working on the nuclear programme.”

Trita Parsi, a U.S.-based expert on Iran, said the killing might, along with the heightened rhetoric of recent weeks, be part of a pattern ahead of a possible resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme; some parties may want to improve their bargaining position, others may see violence as a way of thwarting renewed negotiations altogether, Parsi said.

Last month, Iran signalled a willingness to return to a negotiating process which stalled a year ago, though Western officials say a new round of talks is far from certain yet given that Iran has said enrichment will not be up for negotiation.

Iran’s decision to carry out enrichment work deep underground in the once undeclared plant at Fordow, near the holy Shi’ite city of Qom, could make it harder for U.S. or Israeli forces to carry out veiled threats to use force against Iranian nuclear facilities. The move to Fordow could reduce the time available for diplomacy to avert any attack.

The announcement on Monday that enrichment – a necessary step to turn uranium into atom bomb fuel – had begun at Fordow has given added impetus to Western efforts to impose an oil export embargo intended to pressure Tehran to halt enrichment.

Iran, a signatory to the treaty banning the spread of nuclear weapons, says it is entitled to conduct peaceful research and denies any military nuclear aims. Its adversaries say its failure to take up their offers of help with civilian technology undermine the credibility of its position.

Oil prices have firmed 5 percent since Obama moved on New Year’s Eve to block bank payments for oil to Iran.

(Additional reporting by Robin Pomeroy and Mitra Amiri in Tehran, Stanley White and Tetsushi Kajimoto in Tokyo and David Brunnstrom and Julien Toyer in Brussels; Writing by Ralph Gowling; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

IDF official: Iran, Hezbollah stepping up efforts to save Assad regime in Syria

January 12, 2012

IDF official: Iran, Hezbollah stepping up efforts to save Assad regime in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Military Intelligence chief says face of Middle East is changing in such a way that it is no longer recognizable.

By Gili Cohen

Iran and Hezbollah are strengthening their efforts to ensure the survival of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi said on Wednesday.

“They are providing [Assad] with knowledge, weapons and other means and recently with active involvement,” Kochavi said.

Kochavi also said that the face of the Middle East is changing in such a way that it is no longer recognizable.

“It may be that the winds of change carry opportunities and promise, but in the short and medium term the risks are increasing,” he stated.

On Tuesday, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz said that the turmoil in Syria could cause Assad to seek military confrontation with Israel.

“Assad cannot continue holding on to power and his downfall is expected to cause a crack in the radical axis,” Gantz said.

“Assad and the Syrian regime may have a hard time acting against us in the short-term, but we also need to take into account that Syria has advanced weapons systems. They have advanced Russian arms such as Yakhont missiles.”

The IDF chief said that he was not sure whether the Golan Heights, on the border with Syria, will remain quiet in the near future.

U.S., EU slam Iran nuclear enrichment activity at Security Council meet

January 12, 2012

U.S., EU slam Iran nuclear enrichment activity at Security Council meet – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Increasing criticism will increase pressure on Iran to curb nuclear program, but a fifth round of UN sanctions unlikely due to resistance from Russia, China.

By Reuters

France, Britain, Germany and the United States on Wednesday took advantage of a closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Iran’s decision to begin enriching uranium at an underground bunker.

 

Iran Qom nuclear AP A nuclear facility under construction inside a mountain located about 20 miles north northeast of Qom, Iran.
Photo by: AP

 

The volley of criticism of Tehran will likely add to the pressure on Iran to curb its nuclear program, though Western envoys said there was little chance the 15-nation council would impose a fifth round of UN sanctions on the Iranians anytime soon due to resistance from veto powers Russia and China.

 

“It’s a worrying development,” French Deputy Ambassador Martin Briens told reporters about Iran’s enrichment work after the council meeting. He added that Tehran’s new move was a violation of multiple resolutions of the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors.

 

As sanctions have begun to squeeze the Islamic Republic, Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet for 40 percent of the world’s traded oil.

 

At the same time, it has called for fresh nuclear talks with the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, a group known as the “P5+1,” which have been stalled for a year.

 

But Briens said it was Iran that was preventing the resumption of negotiations with the P5+1. “We keep on trying to get … serious negotiations to start, but so far Iran has not responded,” he said.

 

The United States imposed additional sanctions on Iran last month and the European Union is expected to agree on a ban on imports of Iranian crude oil later this month.

 

Diplomats said Russian and Chinese envoys also voiced worries about Iran’s latest nuclear announcement.

 

“A number of council members expressed concern,” Britain’s Deputy UN Ambassador Philip Parham said. “Russia also said this was a matter for concern and China talked about the need to comply with international obligations.”

 

“There is no doubt about concern in the Security Council on this issue,” Parham said. Russian and Chinese envoys did not address reporters after the council meeting.

 

Both Briens and Parham said that the former clandestine nature of the underground enrichment facility near the city of Qom cast doubt on Iran’s statements that the facility is for civilian purposes. The then secret site’s existence was revealed in September 2009 by the United States, France and Britain.

 

“We see this as a step of escalation by … Iran,” Deputy German Ambassador Miguel Berger said.

 

U.S. Deputy Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo echoed the views of her European counterparts, saying Iran had “no justification for enriching uranium at this level.”

 

Despite the expressions of concern, Western diplomats said the council was not ready to approve additional UN sanctions against Tehran at the moment due to Russian and Chinese opposition.

 

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Wednesday that Moscow opposed U.S. and possible European oil sanctions against Iran, even if Tehran presses ahead with uranium enrichment.

Berger said council members did not discuss the killing on Wednesday in Tehran of an Iranian nuclear scientist, who was blown up in his car by a motorbike hitman. Iran blamed the United States and Israel for the attack, though Washington denied any connection to the apparent assassination.

Assassins of nuclear scientists are sending a double message to Iran

January 12, 2012

Assassins of nuclear scientists are sending a double message to Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Whoever is sending the assassins understands that any system that is damaged or even destroyed can be rehabilitated if the right people are found to revive it.

By Amir Oren

In Jewish tradition, the world is said to rest on three fundamentals. Nuclear projects also have three fundamentals: nuclear material, equipment and manpower.

A nuclear weapon requires a sufficient quantity and quality of uranium or plutonium. It also requires enrichment facilities for the material and the means to deliver it to its target (bombs and aircraft, warheads and missiles, and on a tactical level, shells and landmines.) It also needs scientists, engineers and operators. It needs people to push the button, and it needs people to build whatever goes flying when that button, or switch, is triggered.

Even the most fervent Shi’ite Muslims, who believe in Allah and his three prophets, will have a hard time believing that mere happenstance is causing people in Iran’s nuclear industry to blow up. And it’s precisely these people and no one else who about every two months are meeting their deaths.

Human involvement is the target of the Iranians’ suspicions, and when it comes to every explosive charge delivered on the back of a motorcycle, as if it were a pizza being delivered, the Iranians finger one culprit: Israel. And that’s not because reputed Israeli mobster Yaakov Alperon met his fate in a similar manner on a Tel Aviv street.

Comments on Tuesday by IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz about unnatural occurrences in Iran would tend to reinforce conjecture about some kind of plot. But in practice it doesn’t matter if this suspicion is correct, half correct or even less than that. It doesn’t matter whether the assassinations are Made in Israel or the work of unknown assailants who simply share a common enemy with Israel in the form of a fanatic Islamic regime in Tehran.

The ambiguity is the sibling of the ambiguity surrounding Israel’s alleged nuclear capability. It serves the following purpose: the working assumption that Israel knows who is active in Iran’s nuclear project, knows where and when to find them and how to eliminate them from the community of scientists. In other words, every Iranian nuclear scientist will know he’s in the crosshairs.

Infiltrating into the heart of the Iranian capital or outlying towns, or remote highways near security installations; assassinations; departures from this world without leaving evidence of who carried out the act – all this reflects a systematic approach and professionalism. True, these qualities didn’t characterize the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh two years ago, which the Dubai police attributed to the Mossad, but two years earlier there was a much more successful assassination operation in Damascus against Imad Mughniyeh, so the balance of suspicions remains intact.

The West’s campaign, under American leadership, against the Iranian nuclear program is not a war of choice. In its absence, tensions in the Middle East would intensify to an intolerable level. If we are to judge by the thunderous results, it’s a very selective war with carefully selected targets. The targets are not symbols of the regime or even theological, diplomatic or military decision-makers.

Not that they have immunity. It could be that they are well-protected, but it appears that no extraordinary effort has been invested in them either. The reason for this could be the survival instinct of ministers and military commanders in Western capitals who fear Iranian retaliation for the assassination of senior figures. This would be more sophisticated than the intelligence-gathering before the assassination plot on the Saudi ambassador in Washington, an amateurish case that was uncovered via intelligence from informants. But it also involves judgment over limiting the campaign’s scope.

Limiting the assassinations to nuclear scientists conveys a double message to Iran. First, whoever is sending the assassins will not be reconciled to a militarily nuclear Iran. They are determined to damage the nuclear program in all its aspects. Whoever is sending the assassins also understands that any system that is damaged or even destroyed can be rehabilitated if the right people are found to revive it.

These people, some of whom are being blown up, would certainly feature in the West’s target bank after an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, if one is carried out, to head off efforts to restore the program. The West would do this to impede the rebuilding of what would remain in ruins for years.

Second, this is not a wide assault on the Iranian regime, just on its nuclear arm. Iran’s leaders must decide now on a small scale and all the more so after an attack whether to respond to a precision strike by opening a wider war.

If the West were to attack Iran along an entire front, the response would have to be major. On the other hand, an attack on the nuclear facilities alone would leave many assets in Iran’s hands that it would be hesitant to lose in a tit-for-tat response. These include oil installations, Revolutionary Guard bases and above all the regime itself and its leaders.

Therefore, in his death on Wednesday, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan directed his leaders to do some soul-searching. The cyclists carrying the explosives really were messengers. In addition to delivering the sentence on the nuclear scientist, they were sending a message to the authorities in Tehran.

Ahmadinejad in Cuba: Iran has done nothing wrong

January 12, 2012

Ahmadinejad in Cuba: Iran has done nothing wrong – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives in Cuba amid heightened international tensions over his country’s nuclear program.

By Reuters

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad flashed the victory sign and said Iran had done
nothing to warrant enmity from its enemies after he arrived in Cuba on Wednesday amid heightened international tensions.

He said nothing about the bomb attack that killed an Iranian nuclear scientist in Tehran earlier in the day, which his government blamed on Israel and the United States, the leaders of international opposition to Iran’s nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad in Cuba Jan. 11, 2012 (AFP) Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) and his Cuban counterpart Raul Castro (L) attend a welcoming ceremony at State Council in Havana on January 11, 2012.
Photo by: AFP

Ahmadinejad was to meet with President Raul Castro later, but shortly after arrival in the Cuban capital he told students in veiled remarks at the University of Havana that Iran was being “punished” for no good reason.

“Have we assaulted someone? Have we wanted more than we should have? Never, never. We have only asked to speak about and establish justice,” Ahmadinejad said.

Earlier, he declined to comment upon landing at Havana’s Jose Marti International Airport, where he smiled and flashed the victory sign several times at reporters as he was met by Esteban Lazo, one of Cuba’s vice presidents.

Cuba was his third stop on a Latin American tour meant to show support from four leftist-led nations – Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador – as Iran is increasingly isolated by tightening Western economic sanctions.

The four countries are united with Iran primarily in their antipathy toward the United States, and political and economic ties with the Islamic Republic have expanded in recent years.
They also have endorsed Iran’s right to develop nuclear energy.

The international standoff over Iran’s nuclear activities has hung heavy over Ahmadinejad’s tour, although he and Venezuelan President Hugh Chavez joked on Monday about having an atomic bomb at their disposal.

New sanctions

The United States slapped new sanctions on Iran on New Year’s Eve making it difficult for most countries to buy Iranian oil. The European Union is expected to follow with its own tough measures later this month.

In retaliation, Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which leads out of the Gulf and is the main export route for Middle East oil. The United States, with a large naval fleet in the area, says it will ensure the strait stays open.

Iran has said it is only developing nuclear capabilities for energy and other peaceful purposes, but the United States and its allies accuse it of wanting to create a nuclear weapon.

The situation worsened with the death of nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, 32, who was killed on Wednesday by a magnetic bomb attached to his car in a busy Tehran street.

Three other Iranian scientists, at least two of whom were working on nuclear activities, were killed in 2010 and 2011 when their cars blew up in similar circumstances.

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, in charge while Ahmadinejad travels, told Iranian state television “this terrorist act was carried out by agents of the Zionist regime
(Israel) and by those who claim to be combating terrorism (the United States) with the aim of stopping our scientists from serving” Iran.

He said Iran’s nuclear program would go on.

The White House denied any U.S. role in the car bomb attack and Israel has declined to comment. But the controversy overshadowed the display of Iran’s ties with Cuba, which is just 90 miles (145 km) from the United States, its longtime ideological foe.

Iran has granted several hundred million dollars in credits to Cuba, which the island has used primarily to get new Iranian-made train cars for its deteriorating rail system.

Trade between the two countries totaled $27 million in 2009, down from $46 million the previous year, according to the latest Cuban government figures available.

The two also share the distinction of being two of the four countries on the U.S. State Department’s list of terrorism sponsoring countries, the others being Syria and Sudan.

Before his speech, the University of Havana awarded Ahmadinejad an honorary doctorate in political science, saying he had strengthened relations with Cuba and other Latin American countries and “valiantly defended the right of his people to self-determination” in the face of international pressure.

It was not yet known if Ahmadinejad would visit former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, who is now mostly retired at age 85 but still meets occasionally with visiting foreign leaders.

He was to leave early Thursday morning en route to Ecuador, the final stop of his trip.

Hamas leader to visit Iran in new trip

January 12, 2012

Hamas leader to visit Iran in new trip – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh recently returned to Gaza Strip from tour of Egypt, Sudan, Turkey and Tunisia; Hamas says visits indicate growing international recognition of the movement.

By The Associated Press

An adviser to Hamas’ prime minister said the leader will visit Iran, Qatar and other Muslim countries at the end of the month.

Yusef Rizka says the militant group’s Ismail Haniyeh will embark on his second international trip outside the Gaza Strip. He returned this week from a tour of Egypt, Sudan, Turkey and Tunisia.

Ismail Haniyeh - AP - Sept. 28, 2010 Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh
Photo by: AP

It was the first time Haniyeh had left Gaza since Hamas seized control of the territory from the rival Fatah movement in 2007.

Hamas said the visits indicate the movement’s increased international recognition, and the growing influence of Islamic groups in the region.

The internationally-recognized Palestinian Authority, which is dominated by Fatah, has been concerned by the warm welcome Haniyeh has received. It says his visits should be coordinated through Palestinian embassies.