WarSclerotic

An ironic lesson for Iran — the reality behind the rhetoric | Ottawa Citizen.

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The lesson couldn’t be more obvious.

Even as the destroyerUSS Kidd, wasrescuing 13 Iranian fishermen from the Al Molai who’d been held for weeks by Somali pirates, Iran announced plans for yet another round of war games as it ratcheted up tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Real Admiral Ali Fadavi, naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, said Friday military exercises next month would focus directly on the Strait of Hormuz, which leads out of the Gulf and provides the outlet for most oil from the Middle East. On Monday, Iran concluded a similar 10-day drill in neighbouring seas. “Today theIslamic Republic of Iran has full domination over the region and controls all movements within it,” Fadavi said.

Oh really? Then why didn’t the Iranian navy rescue the fishermen if it control so much the area. After all, the pirates and their hostages had been bobbing around the North Arabian sea, near the Strait of Hormuz, for more than a month.

U.S. Navy rescues Iranian fishermen

Fadavi’s rhetoric echoes that of Iranian army chief General Ataollah Salehi, who earlier this week warned the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and its strike group “not to return to the Persian Gulf” after having transited the waterway in late December. Add this to Fadavi’s braggadocio and you have to wonder whether the Iranians fully realize the dangerous game they are playing.

But then I don’t imagine either the naval commander or the army chief appreciate the irony of having Iranian fishermen freed by the very carrier group that Iran insists shouldn’t return to the Gulf.

What strikes me about the Iranian rhetoric is how similar it sounds to that used by former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. As some may remember, Hussein bragged constantly about possessing weapons of mass destruction, and regularly warned how he’d rain down hell on American troops – and Israel, too — should the Americans invade.

We all know what happened to Saddam. Everybody believed him, including his own military commanders who were stunned to find there were no WMD available when the U.S. did invade in 2003. It had all been a big bluff on Saddam’s part.

If the Iranians do attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz that would be a casus belli for war, as I argued in a previous blog (see below).

No doubt, the Iranian navy could do considerable damage in a war situation, particularly if they got in a few surprise attacks. There are numerous U.S. targets within range of Iranian missiles. As well, the Iranian navy has many small boats that could attack ships near the shore. And then, of course, the mullahs would probably order their allies – Hamas and Hezbollah – to strike at Israel. (That, of course, would provoke an Israeli response, so things would really get nasty.)

The reality, however, is that U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is based in the area, is far more powerful than Iran’s naval forces. The carrier USS Stennis is accompanied by a guided-missile cruiser and flotillas of destroyers – including the USS Kidd — and submarines.

The Combined Maritime Force protecting Gulf shipping also includes other countries such Britain, France, Canada, Australia and the Gulf Arab states, under the command of a U.S. admiral.

There are also several U.S. air bases in the region.

American officials have said the U.S. will ensure the international waters of the strait stay open, and, unless the Obama administration goes all wobbly, there is little doubt about the outcome of any conflict.

For the Iranians, the lesson should be obvious: When you talk loudly, have big sticks to back up your rhetoric.

Perhaps Fadavi and Salehi should have a chat with the captain of the Al Molai. He might have some intelligence about the capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

(Come to think of it, I wonder what the captain’s fate will be for allowing himself to be rescued by infidels.)

AMERICA ON A WAR FOOTING: Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel.

This and other reports suggest that Israel and the US are on a war footing.

Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, January 6, 2012

Without much media attention, thousands of American troops are being deployed to Israel, and Iranian officials believe that this is the latest and most blatant warning that the US will soon be attacking Tehran.

Tensions between nations have been high in recent months and have only worsened in the weeks since early December when Iran hijacked and recovered an American drone aircraft. Many have speculated that a back-and-forth between the two countries will soon escalate Iran and the US into an all-out war, and that event might occur sooner than thought.

Under the Austere Challenge 12 drill scheduled for an undisclosed time during the next few weeks, the Israeli military will together with America host the largest-ever joint missile drill by the two countries. Following the installation of American troops near Iran’s neighboring Strait of Hormuz and the reinforcing of nearby nations with US weapons, Tehran authorities are considering this not a test but the start of something much bigger.

In the testing, America’s Theater High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile system will be operating alongside its ship-based Aegis system and Israel’s own program to work with Arrow, Patriot and Iron Drone missiles.

Israeli military officials say that the testing was planned before recent episodes involving the US and Iran. Of concern, however, is how the drill will require the deployment of thousands of American troops into Israel. 

The Jerusalem Post quotes US Commander Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc as saying the drill is not just an “exercise” but also a “deployment” that will involve “several thousand American soldiers” heading to Israel. Additionally, new command posts will be established by American forces in Israel and that country’s own IDF army will begin working from a base in Germany.

In September [of 2008], the US European Command established a radar system in Israel.

With America previously equipping Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with weaponry to wreck any chance of an Iranian nuclear weapon program from close by, the US will now have added forces on the ready in Israel and Germany under what Tehran fears is a guise being merely perpetrated as a test-run. RT reported last week that the US is equipping Saudi Arabia with nearly $30 billion F-15 war planes, a deal that comes shortly after Washington worked out a contract with Dubai to give the UAE advanced “bunker buster” bombs that could decimate underground nuclear operations in neighboring Iran.

Since the US surveillance mission over Iran that left overseas intelligence with a captured American drone aircraft, tensions have only escalated between the two nations. After Iran threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial path for the nation’s oil trade, the US dispatched 15,000 marines into the area.

Iranian president to tour US foes in Latin America.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, under increasing pressure from debilitating Western economic sanctions, Sunday begins a tour of Latin America aimed at shoring up ties with his few remaining allies.

Ahmadinejad will meet fellow US foe and firebrand Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on a four-nation trip that coincides with rising international concern over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The Iranian leader will arrive in Caracas late Sunday, kicking off a five-day trip that will on Tuesday see him attend the inauguration of the recently re-elected Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega.

Stops in Cuba and Ecuador will round off the tour. All four Latin American countries have frosty ties with the United States and their leaders have in the past four years made numerous visits to Tehran to build up diplomatic and business links while relations with Washington have worsened.

Ahmadinejad’s international affairs director, Mohammad Reza Forqani, said the visit to “what used to be called the backyard of America shows the dynamism of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s diplomacy in the world arena.”

The trip also “invalidates the claims of the enemies,” Forqani was quoted as saying by Iranian state media on Tuesday, in a clear jab at Washington.

Officials in Ecuador meanwhile confirmed Ahmadinejad would visit the South American nation on Thursday, in the Iranian leader’s second visit since attending President Rafael Correa’s inauguration in 2007.

Ahmadinejad will talk with Latin American leaders about “bilateral ties and regional and international issues,” according to Iran’s official IRNA news agency.

The United States on Friday urged Latin American countries not to deepen ties with Iran.

“As the regime feels increasing pressure, it is desperate for friends and flailing around in interesting places to find new friends,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said when asked about Ahmadinejad’s trip.

Carlos Romero, a retired international relations professor at the Central University of Venezuela, said Ahmadinejad was “trying to find oxygen in Latin America,” while links with other states continue to spiral downwards.

“His country is in a very complicated state internationally and is challenged internally by ever more protests on social networks,” over the regime’s denunciation of human rights at home and in Syria, Romero said.

While the international community and many neighboring states have condemned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s months-long crackdown on protesters, ally Ahmadinejad has remained steadfastly loyal to the Damascus leadership.

The Iranian president will be accompanied on the Latin America trip by his ministers for foreign affairs, trade, commerce and mines and energy.

Ahmadinejad, who last came to Venezuela in November 2009, was scheduled to visit Caracas in September 2011 but the trip was postponed because of Chavez’s cancer diagnosis. The Venezuelan leader, who has since declared himself free of the disease, last visited Iran in October 2010.

But the region’s economic powerhouse, Brazil, is notably absent from Ahmadinejad’s itinerary next week.

Lytton Guimaraes, an expert on Latin America at the University of Brasilia, said the omission indicated that President Dilma Rousseff was adopting a much cooler approach to Iran than that of her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“Brazil is now not going to defend but not going to attack Iran. It’s going to sit still,” Guimaraes told AFP.

The United Nations’ nuclear inspection agency in November reported serious concerns about Tehran’s nuclear program, suggesting it contained a military component. Iran insists its atomic activities are for civilian purposes only.

EU countries hope to reach a deal to slap an oil embargo on Iran by the end of January and are seeking alternative supplies for nations who are currently dependent on imports from Tehran, diplomats in Brussels said Friday.

In 2010, oil from Iran amounted to 5.8 percent of total EU imports, making Tehran the bloc’s fifth-largest supplier after Russia, Norway, Libya and Saudi Arabia.

Royal Navy sends its mightiest ship to take on the Iranian show of force in the Gulf – Telegraph.

The Royal Navy’s most formidable warship is being sent to the Gulf for its first mission as tensions rise in the strategically vital region, it can be disclosed.

The £1 billion destroyer carries the world’s most sophisticated naval radar, capable of tracking multiple incoming threats from missiles to fighter jets Photo: PA

By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent

7:00PM GMT 06 Jan 2012

Iran completed a 10-day naval exercise in the sensitive waters near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, staging manouevres which included firing three anti-ship missiles understood to be the Chinese-made C-802.

Yesterday, Tehran said that another exercise would be held in the same area next month. Admiral Ali Fadavi, commander of the naval branch of the Revolutionary Guard, warned that this would be “different” from the most recent one.

Speaking earlier, Mr Hammond said that “our joint naval presence in the Arabian Gulf” was “key to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade”.

A Navy source has indicated that more British ships could be sent to the Gulf if required. The second Type 45, HMS Dauntless, will also be available to sail at short notice.

Daring’s special software upgrades will significantly increase the ability of its Sampson radar and Sea Viper missiles to destroy incoming missiles.

During an intensive “swarm attack”, the vessel could simultaneously track, engage and destroy more targets than five of it predecessor Type 42 destoyers.

The Sea Viper is also one of the world’s most agile missiles equipped with its own radar that can allow it to hit a target a hundred miles away.

Lord West, the former First Sea Lord, described Daring as a “world beater”, adding: “This warship has an unbelievably capable ability to track targets, spot the most dangerous and identify them for its missiles to take out. It’s highly, highly capable. I would like to see the Type 45s show their potential in the region.”

The 8,000 ton destroyer will carry 48 Sea Vipers that can also be used to shoot down fighters as well as sea skimming missiles. It will also carry a Lynx helicopter capable of carrying Sea Skua anti-ship missiles and is capable of embarking 60 special forces troops.

An MoD spokesman said: “While the newly operational Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring is more capable than earlier ships, her deployment East of Suez has been long planned, is entirely routine and replaces a frigate on station.”

Iran, Israel and US plan Gulf exercises – FT.com.

Tension in the oil shipping lanes of the Gulf looks set to intensify amid indications that Iran, Israel and the US will hold military exercises designed to test weaponry and tactics.

As the US and European Union press ahead with oil sanctions on Iran, Tehran’s defence minister announced on Friday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will hold large-scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf next month

The drills will be the “greatest naval war games” to be conducted by the Iranian military’s elite corps, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, said in remarks published by the semi-official Fars news agency. The exercises, called “the Great Prophet”, will take place in February and will be more extensive than Iranian naval manoeuvres in the Sea of Oman that ended this week.

The Iranian announcement came as it emerged that the US and Israel are gearing up for a major missile defence exercise in the next few weeks. The drill, called “Austere Challenge 12”, is designed to improve defence systems and co-operation between the US and Israeli forces. According to an Israeli official cited by the Associated Press, the drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defence systems against incoming missiles and rockets.

Israel has deployed the “Arrow” system, which was jointly developed and funded with the US and is designed to intercept Iranian missiles in the stratosphere, far from Israel.

The announcements of the exercises are the latest indication of mounting tensions between Iran, Israel and the west over its nuclear programme. The EU is set to impose sanctions on oil imports from Iran on January 30 while the US is set to impose petroleum-related banking sanctions on Iran from June of this year.

Most defence experts believe it is highly unlikely that Iran will act on a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s major sea lanes for the oil trade. However, many experts are concerned that the amount of military activity in the region could lead to an incident that triggers a conflict.

Syrian opposition figure says Assad’s regime plotting a massive blast in Aleppo.

Friday, 06 January 2012

Syrian opposition leader Ammar Qurabi described those explosions as “fabricated” by the Bashar al-Assad regime. (Al Arabiya)

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The Syrian regime is plotting for a massive blast in the Syrian city of Aleppo, just to terrorize the people, a Syrian activist and opposition leader told Al Arabiya on Friday.

Syrian opposition leader Ammar Qurabi, head of the National Organization for Human Rights in Syria, told Al Arabiya that he had learned about the planned Aleppo plot from Syrian security officials. He described those explosions as “fabricated” by the Bashar al-Assad regime.

Earlier on Friday, a suicide bombing killed about 26 people and wounded 60 others in the central Maidan district in Damascus, bringing bloodshed to the heart of the Syrian capital for the second time in two weeks.

Qurabi held Assad accountable for the explosion of the Maidan district, as well as the previous blast the occurred before the arrival of the Arab mission to Syria.

The blast occurred two days before an Arab League committee was due to discuss an initial report of Arab observers who are checking Syria’s compliance with an Arab plan to halt President Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown on nearly 10 months of unrest.

The meeting may decide whether to continue the mission or to refer Syria to the United Nations Security Council, perhaps paving the way for some form of international action, a scenario that many Arab countries are keen to avoid.

On Dec. 23 at least 44 people were killed by what Syrian authorities said were two suicide bombings that targeted security buildings in the Syrian capital.

Those attacks occurred the day before the arrival in Damascus of the head of the Arab League observer mission.

Qurabi wondered why such explosions usually take place only on Fridays and why they always target civilian neighborhoods and not military camps.

Commenting on the news that the Arab League chief on Friday asked the Damascus-based leader of the Palestinian group Hamas to ask Syria to work to halt violence and end a crackdown on anti-government protesters, Qurabi said that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal visited Sudan two weeks earlier and that he criticized the Sudanese government for approving the freeze of Syria’s membership in the Arab League.

Qurabi described Meshaal as “part of the Iranian-Hezbollah convoy” that supports Assad’s regime. Meshaal also criticized the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for the official Palestinian stand towards the Syrian crisis, according to Qurabi.

Commenting on the Arab observers mission in Syria, Qurabi told Al Arabiy that he had talked to one of the Arab observers in Homs – Anwar Malik, the Algerian journalist – who told him that the mission “has failed.”

“He talked about huge violations and told me that the main goal of the Arab mission was to be a cover for the bloodshed in Syria,” Qurabi said.

Commenting on the role played by Iran in Syria, Qurabi said that it is well-known that Iran is a part of the current dispute in Syria. “It does not only support the Syrian regime, but it also provides it with weapons and technology.”

The Syrian opposition leader also said that Iran was pressing Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for providing financial aid and support to the Syrian regime.

U.S., Israel Preparing for ‘Biggest Defense Drill’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

IDF soldiers

Israel news photo: IDF website

The Israeli military is gearing up together with U.S. forces for a major missile defense exercise, the IDF announced Thursday.

The Associated Press reported that the “Austere Challenge 12” drill is designed to improve defense systems and cooperation between the U.S. and Israeli forces.

While the drill follows a ten-day Iranian naval exercise near the Strait of Hormuz, the IDF told AP the drill with the U.S. was planned long ago and is not tied to recent events.

Israeli and U.S. officials told AP the exercise would be the largest-ever joint drill by the two countries.

A few weeks ago, the Commander of the Third Air Force of the U.S Military, Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, arrived in Israel to prepare for the joint training exercise.

A spokesman for the IDF did not give a date for the drill Thursday, but a senior military official told AP it would be in the next few weeks, adding it would be the biggest missile defense drill ever held.

The Israeli official said thousands of American and Israeli soldiers from different units would take part. He said the drill would test multiple Israeli and U.S. air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets.

The Islamic Republic followed its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz with another earlier this week, when Iranian army chief Ayatollah Salehi warned USS carrier John C Stennis not to return to the Persian Gulf after having left the area through the Straits of Hormuz in a “pre-planned, routine operation.”

The U.S. responded to the Iranian threat with a calm statement read by Pentagon spokesman George Little and which warned Iran, “The deployment of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf region will continue as it has for decades.”

On Wednesday, the IDF staged a surprise drill at its base at the port of Haifa as Iran completed its drill.

Haifa base commander Brigadier General Eli Sharvit, ordered the surprise drill to check the readiness of Israel Navy vessels to depart from port and head out to sea to conduct operation, the IDF said. A majority of the Israel Navy’s operational strength is based in Haifa, which was bombed several times by Hizbullah terrorists in the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006.

Meanwhile, Martin Van Creveld, a military historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, estimated on Thursday that the joint Israel-U.S. drill was intended not only to practice military maneuvers but also to pressure Iran.

“Defending against an attack is not something that you improvise from today to tomorrow,” Van Creveld told AP. “It’s something you have to prepare, you have to rehearse, you have to prepare for. This, among other things, is an exercise to show Iran, the people in Tehran, that Israel and the United States are ready to counterattack.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 6, 2012, 6:41 PM (GMT+02:00)

US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Weapon System

Thousands of US troops began descending on Israel this week. Senior US military sources told debkafile Friday, Jan. 6 that many would be staying up to the end of the year as part of the US-IDF deployment in readiness for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. They will be joined by a US aircraft carrier. The warplanes on its decks will fly missions with Israeli Air Force jets. The 9,000 US servicemen gathering in Israel in the coming weeks are mostly airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, seamen, technicians and intelligence officers.

The incoming American soldiers are officially categorized as participants in Austere Challenge 12, the biggest joint US-Israeli war game ever held.

The maneuver was originally designated Juniper Stallion 2012.  However, the altered name plus the comment heard from the exercise’s commander, US Third Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, during his visit two weeks ago, that the coming event is more a “deployment” than an “exercise,” confirmed that Washington has expanded its mission. The joint force will now be in place ready for a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear installations or any war emergency.

Our sources disclose that it was decided at the last minute in Washington and Jerusalem to announce the forthcoming Austere Challenge 12 on Thursday night, Jan. 5, ahead of the bulletin released by Tehran about another Iranian naval exercise at the Strait of Hormuz to take place in February, although its 10-day drill in the same arena only ended Monday, Jan. 2.

The early release was decided in consultations among US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the two army chiefs, US Gen. Martin Dempsey and Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz.
British Defense Minister Phillip Hammond, on a visit to Washington, was brought into the discussion.
The handout circulated to US correspondents from Hammond’s talks in the US capital affirmed that Britain stands ready to strike Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
However, that phrase was omitted from the British minister’s remarks at a news conference, following a last-minute request from Panetta, signifying the Obama administration’s interest of keeping a low profile on plans for attacking Iran.

Tehran too is walking a taut tightrope. It is staging military’s maneuvers every few days to assuring the Iranian people that its leaders are fully prepared to defend the country against an American or Israeli strike on its national nuclear program. By this stratagem, Iran’s ground, sea and air forces are maintained constantly at top war readiness to thwart any surprise attack.

The joint US-Israeli drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets, according to the official communiqué.

debkafile‘s military sources add that they will also practice intercepting missiles and rockets coming in from Syria, Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

It will not be the first time a US aircraft carrier docks in Israel for joint operations with the Israeli Air Force. On June 9, 2010, the USS Truman dropped anchor opposite Israel to test a joint deployment against Iran and its allies. The carrier and its air and naval strike force then staged joint firing practices with the Israeli Air Force over the Negev in the South.
Washington and Jerusalem are doing their utmost to present a perfectly synchronized military front against Iran: American officers are stationed at IDF command centers and Israeli officers posted at the US European Command-EUCOM. At the same time, debkafile‘s military sources disclose that full consensus has not been reached on every last particular of shared operation against Iran, should one go forward.

‘Iran close to starting nuclear … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    VIENNA – Iran has taken steps in recent weeks that bring it closer to launching uranium enrichment deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources say, a move that would worsen its nuclear confrontation with the West.

Iran has said for months that it is preparing to conduct uranium enrichment at Fordow – a protected site deep underground where it says it wants to make material for a peaceful nuclear reactor – but it has yet to start.

RELATED:
EU governments consider delay on any Iran oil ban
Iran plans new military maneuvers in February

The West suspects it of seeking the enriched uranium for a bomb, and wants it to halt the plans. Were Iran to begin production at the site, near the Shi’ite Muslim holy city of Qom, it could make it harder to revive nuclear talks that collapsed a year ago.

Western countries have imposed increasingly tight economic sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program, culminating with a new law signed on New Year’s Eve by US President Barack Obama aimed at preventing buyers from paying for Iranian oil.

One Vienna-based diplomat said Iran was believed to have begun in late December feeding uranium gas into centrifuges as part of final preparations to use the machines for enrichment.

“They are close to being able to begin enriching,” the diplomat said. “They have to do some experimenting and refining to get it right.”

An official of another country said he believed Iran was carrying out “passivation”, a technical step involving putting nuclear material into the centrifuges to prepare them to be activated for enrichment.

“I would assume they could start if they wanted to,” he said.

Apart from the technical question of preparing Fordow for launch, Iran would have to take a political decision to start enrichment there. Western capitals may be hoping that the latest sanctions, which are imposing real pain on the Iranian economy, would persuade Tehran to hold off.

Iran is already refining uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent – far more than the 3.5 percent level usually required to power nuclear energy plants – above ground at another location.

It is moving this higher-grade enrichment to Fordow in an apparent bid to better protect the work against any enemy attacks. It also plans to sharply boost output capacity.

The machines and other equipment needed to start enrichment were installed at Fordow last year.

The United States and Israel, Iran’s arch foes, have not ruled out strikes against the Islamic state’s nuclear sites to prevent it from acquiring atomic arms. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, mainly for generating electricity.

Iran’s mission to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Vienna-based UN nuclear watchdog and the IAEA itself were not available for comment. UN inspectors regularly visit Iranian nuclear facilities, including the one at Fordow, and track developments there.

West readies oil plan in case of… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    LONDON – Western powers this week readied a contingency plan to tap a record volume from emergency stockpiles to replace nearly all the Gulf oil that would be lost if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources and diplomats told Reuters.

They said senior executives of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 28 oil consuming countries, discussed on Thursday an existing plan to release up to 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of government-owned oil stored in the United States, Europe, Japan and other importers.

Action on this scale would be more than five times the size of the biggest release in the agency’s history — made in response to Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

The maximum release, some 10 million bpd of crude and about 4 million bpd of refined products, could be sustained during the first month of any coordinated action, the plan says.

“This would form a necessary and sensible response to a closure of the strait,” a European diplomat told Reuters. “It wouldn’t take long to put in place if it was required … and would be unlikely to prove controversial amongst the (IEA) membership.”

A spokesman for the IEA confirmed that the Paris-based agency has an existing contingency plan that outlines a maximum stock release capability of 14 million bpd for a month. “We’re watching the situation carefully,” he said of Iran.

Tehran announced plans on Friday for new military exercises in the world’s most important oil shipping lane, through which some 16 million barrels of crude pass each day.

Iranian officials have threatened to block the strait if new sanctions, aimed to discourage Iran’s nuclear program, harm Tehran’s oil exports..

Many oil experts believe the threats are rhetoric aimed at pushing up oil prices in a bid to avert sanctions.

“The IEA is monitoring the situation very closely, and is fairly concerned about it,” the diplomat said, confirming that senior management discussed Iran at the meeting on Thursday.

Western governments are targeting Iranian oil supplies and the European Union is readying a ban on the country’s crude oil exports of about 500,000 bpd with the goal of a final decision by month’s end, while Washington has already imposed financial measures to discourage business with Tehran.

Industry sources said the IEA is unlikely to release stocks in the event of an EU embargo on Iran. While Europe will import less Iranian oil, Tehran will seek to sell larger volumes to its biggest customers in Asia.

However, Bob McNally, a former White House energy advisor and now head of consultancy Rapidan Group, says even a more modest disruption — if Iran were to shut in some of its own production due to sanctions pressure, for instance — may require action.

“Given low OPEC spare capacity, IEA stock releases may need to be considered if prolonged supply disruptions even smaller than the flow through Hormuz were to take place,” he said.

US congressman Edward Markey, the top Democrat on the House of Representatives’ Natural Resources Committee, said he would support US releasing its reserves, although he views the emergency stockpiles as only a short term solution to the nation’s energy problems.

“America should always be willing to use our strategic oil reserves as a weapon against OPEC dictators, Wall Street speculators and any manipulators of the oil markets, and the recent saber rattling from Iran is no different,” Markey told Reuters in a statement.

Also watching closely are oil giants Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq who depend on the strait to move most of their crude.

If the Gulf channel gets blocked, Saudi Arabia, the world’s top exporter, can route more crude through the country’s East-West pipeline system to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Pipelines are available

Altogether that network has effective capacity of some 4.5 million bpd and after supplying Saudi domestic refineries in Jeddah, Riyadh, Rabigh and Yanbu – there is about 3 million bpd of export capacity available, said an industry source.

The neighboring United Arab Emirates also has export flexibility. It is nearing completion of the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline, which will bypass the strait to ship as much as 1.5 million bpd to the Indian Ocean. Industry sources said the pipeline has been tested and the first flow of oil has already been pumped.

“It’s now only a matter of switching on a button,” one industry source said.

The IEA tapped emergency stocks in June to help supply refiners caught short by supply lost to Libya’s civil war. It was a move that angered the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which felt the consumer group had overstepped its bounds.

Founded in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, the IEA has only drawn down reserves on three occasions. Apart from last summer, member countries released oil in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina damaged offshore oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and made available 2.5 million bpd in January 1991 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait disrupted about 4.3 million bpd.