WarSclerotic

‘Syrian opposition may soon topple Assad’ – JPost – Middle East.

    There are growing signs that the Syrian opposition is stabilizing and will succeed in the coming months in toppling President Bashar Assad’s regime, a top IDF officer predicted on Tuesday.

According to the officer, the IDF has learned of the defection of thousands of Syrian soldiers, including dozens of officers, among them a number of high-ranking colonels.

The officer’s prediction came a day after Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the Knesset that Assad was expected to fall in the coming weeks.

The officer said that the IDF was increasingly concerned with the possible fallout from Assad’s downfall and particularly the possibility that Syria’s chemical arsenal would fall into terrorist hands.

There are also concerns that clashes could break out along Israel’s border with Syria in the Golan Heights. The IDF has detected an increase in the number of Syrian troops patrolling the border and recently decided to deploy a battalion nearby to contain a potential isolated attack.

The IDF is also concerned with the presence of global jihad elements in Syria, which it suspects were behind the twin suicide bombings in Damascus last week which killed 44 people.

“It is unclear what role these elements are playing in Syria and their presence is concerning,” the officer said.

Turning to Iran, the IDF believes that Iran will make a decision in the coming years to manufacture a nuclear device.

Currently, Iran is assessed to be on the threshold, which means that it has mastered all of the technology required for a nuclear weapon as well as the fuel cycle process.

“All that is needed now is for the Iranians to make a decision to make the bomb and we predict with high probability that it will happen in the coming years,” the officer said.

The Iranians recently opened the Fordo facility built under a mountain near the city of Qom and are moving centrifuges there which they plan to use to enrich uranium to 20 percent levels, moving closer to the 90% levels required for a nuclear weapon. In addition, the facility can be used to store between 1 and 2 tons of enriched uranium.

“Once they go to the breakout stage [begin enrichment of military-grade uranium Y. K.], it will take between one year to a year-and-a-half to manufacture a nuclear device,” the officer said.

“It will take another couple of years for them to manufacture a number of bombs.”

Israeli subs as strategic deterrent—Ronald S. Lauder – NYPOST.com.

It’s time the Israelis “went deep.” That is, it’s time they took their submarine force and reinvented it as a strategic deterrent against a potentially nuclear-armed Iran and its terrorist surrogates seeking to literally wipe Israel off the map.

The Jewish state has never been a potent sea power. Its military has traditionally depended on a mobile land force of tanks, mechanized infantry and a powerful air force to confront the far more numerous Arab armies that have threatened its existence. Yet the reality is, warfare technology that could put Iranian nuclear warheads atop medium-range ballistic missiles should force changes in Israeli’s strategy to survive.

Even without an atomic threat, Israel faces a dangerous new world. While Iran is saber-rattling in the Straits of Hormuz, it has the means to launch an overwhelming barrage of conventionally armed ballistic missiles across Israel. Within the opening minutes of a surprise attack, Iran could destroy military bases, airfields and command centers. The Israelis are good but they aren’t invincible.

That’s why Israel needs to use the Mediterranean and Indian oceans as a bastion for its diesel-powered submarines. Today, it is reported that the Israeli Navy operates three of these modern, ultraquiet, effectively fresh-air-independent Dolphin-class submarines. Two more subs have been ordered and should be at the dock before the end of this year.

These submarines can’t be compared to America’s ocean-roaming billion-dollar “boomers,” with their phalanx of nuclear-tipped intercontinental-ballistic missiles. They don’t need to be. Israel has the means of firing what defense analysts say are nuclear capable Harpoon cruise missiles from within retrofitted torpedo tubes, its secret warheads giving Iranian war planners a lot to think about when plotting the destruction of what they call “The Zionist entity.”

While a Harpoon’s range is about 200 miles, published intelligence reports say Israel staged an Indian Ocean test in which it fired a mock warhead nearly 1,000 miles from its submarine — incidentally, the approximate distance between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

To be credible, Israel will need more than a five-boat fleet of subs. At least two submarines must be at sea at any given time, one in the Indian Ocean, to ensure a genuine deterrent, while others are undergoing maintenance, retrofitting and refueling.

Expanding Israel’s submarine fleet with a potent reach and powerful warheads would send a clear and unmistakable message to radical Islamic fundamentalists that Israel has the means to confront with massive deadly force a first strike nuclear attack in the Middle East.

Ironically, having such a fleet would recreate the kind of deterrence we saw during the Cold War, which kept enemies from attacking each other for some 40 years.

Ronald S. Lauder is the president of the World Jewish Congress and served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO affairs under President Ronald Reagan.

Is Iran Following in Qaddafi’s Footsteps? – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Strait of Hormuz

NASA

An Iranian parliamentarian said Tuesday that all foreign warships will soon be unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unless they first receive permission from the Iranian Navy ships deployed in the region.

“If the military vessels and warships of any country want to pass via the Strait of Hormoz without coordination and permission of Iran’s Navy forces, they should be stopped by the Iranian Armed Forces,” Nader Qazipour told FNA.

Nader said the plan will be presented to the parliament’s presiding board next week. Iran’s navy is drawing up a strategic plan to enforce the decision should it be approved.

His remarks came hours after Iran warned the USS John C Stennis carrier group not to return to the Persian Gulf after it passed through the strategic strait into the Gulf of Oman.

The Strait of Hormuz is 34 miles wide at its narrowest point. Under international maritime law nations may not claim more than 12 miles of coastal waters as their own.

Analysts say any decision by Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz to foreign vessels of any type would likely be a calculated decision by Iran aimed at testing American will.

The United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, has said any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world’s oil supplies flow, would be a “an act of war.”

In 1981late Libyan Dictator Muammar Qaddafi attempted to claim the entire Gulf of Sidre as Libyan national waters and began deploying warplanes to harass US warships conducting exercises there. The confrontation ended with two Libyan warplanes shot down after they fired a on a US Navy F-14 Tomcat.

In the spring of 1986, the U.S. Navy deployed three aircraft carrier task force groups, USS America, USS Coral Sea and USS Saratoga from the Sixth Fleet with 225 aircraft and some 30 warships across Qadaffi’s so-called “Line of Death” and into the disputed Gulf of Sidra.

After a day of armed conflict, the operation was terminated after an unknown number of human and materiel losses to the Libyan side and no losses to the American side.

Military analysts note that while Iran has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz if unchallenged, the United States has an asymmetrical military advantage that would render keeping the strait closed impossible for Iran were the US to act.

The United States currently has three carrier groups – as well as other elements of the Fifth fleet – In striking range of the Strait of Hormuz. It would also likely have access to the airbases of its Gulf Arab allies, as well as the support of their air forces, were Iran to force the issue.

The threat to close the strategic waterway to military traffic is only the latest of Iran’s bombastic threats to rattle the world economy by choking off oil supplies.

Syria’s death toll up as Arab mission criticized; rebel leader threatens more attacks.

Al Arabiya

Wednesday, 04 January 2012

Demonstrators protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Kafranbel, near Idlib. (Reuters)

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As many as 23 people have been killed by the fire of Syrian security forces across the country on Tuesday, Al Arabiya reported citing Syrian activists as western countries became critical of the Arab League observers.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that eighteen security force personnel were killed in the southern town of Deraa as dozens of deserting soldiers returned fire on police who shot at them as they fled their posts.

The commander of Syria’s armed rebels has threatened to step up attacks on President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, saying he was frustrated with Arab League monitors’ lack of progress in ending a government crackdown on protests.

“If we feel they (the monitors) are still not serious in a few days, or at most within a week, we will take a decision which will surprise the regime and the whole world,” the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Colonel Riad al-Asaad, told Reuters in an interview.

Syrian Colonel Riad al-Asaad speaks during an interview with Reuters at a refugee camp in Hatay, near the Turkish-Syrian border, Oct. 6, 2011. (Photo by Reuters)

The Arab League said on Monday its monitors were helping to stem bloodshed, 10 months into a popular uprising against Syria’s ruling family, and asked for more time to do their job.

But since the team’s arrival last week, security forces have killed more than 132 people, according to a Reuters tally. Other activist groups say 390 have been killed.

Security forces also opened fire and killed two people at a protest in the central city of Hama, the same day that activists met monitors and said the team seemed powerless to help them.

Transformative shift

The monitors are checking whether Syria is implementing an Arab League peace plan by pulling troops from flashpoint cities and releasing thousands detained in the revolt, one of a series of Arab uprisings that have toppled four leaders in a year.

Asaad, whose FSA is an umbrella group of armed factions, said he was waiting for the League’s report on its first week before deciding whether to make a “transformative shift” that he said would mark a major escalation against the security forces.

“Since they (the monitors) entered, we had many more martyrs,” he said, speaking by telephone from his safe haven in southern Turkey. “Is it in the Syrian people’s interest to allow the massacre to continue?”

The White House on Tuesday condemned the Syrian regime’s unrelenting violence against protesters, saying it was “past time” for the U.N. Security Council to take measures against Damascus.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Syria had failed to comply with standards set by regional observers monitoring the situation.

“As sniper fire, torture, and murder in Syria continue, it is clear that the requirements of the Arab League protocol have not been met,” Carney said, according to AFP.

“We believe it’s past time for the Security Council to act,” Carney said.

Arab foreign ministers were to meet in Cairo on Saturday to discuss the mission’s first report, the League said on a day when observers faced scathing criticism from activists.

“We want to tell Nabil al-Araby that the lack of professionalism of the observers and non-compliance with their arrival times in specific places have left many people killed,” said the Local Coordination Committees, which organize the protests, according to AFP.

It further claimed the observers were being hampered by the regime.

“Soldiers wear police uniforms, drive repainted military vehicles and change the names of places, but this does not mean the army withdrew from cities and streets, or that the regime is applying the provisions of the Arab protocol.”

The LCC has also been criticized by Syrian activists and opposition figures over the choice of a former top Sudanese military commander, General Mohammed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, to head its observer operation.

Dabi served under Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.

Controversy over Arab League mission

The Arab League mission has already been plagued by controversy. Protesters have complained about its small size and were appalled when the head of the mission suggested he was reassured by first impressions of Homs, one of the main centers of unrest.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Tuesday it was crucial that monitors were able to act independently. Protesters have complained that security forces regularly accompany monitors, making them difficult to approach.

“Do they truly have genuinely free access to information? We are waiting for the report they will produce in the coming days for more clarity,” Juppe told the French news channel i>tele.

The U.S. State Department noted that violence against the protesters had not stopped, and said it was concerned by reports that soldiers were donning police uniform to mask their actions.

“In some cases the regime is actually putting out its own false reports that monitors are on the way, demonstrators come into the streets, and then they fire on them,” spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

“The Syrian regime has not lived up to the full spectrum of commitments that it made to the Arab League when it accepted its proposal some nine weeks ago.’

Activists who met the monitors in Hama on Tuesday said they doubted whether the monitors had freedom of movement.

Mohammed Abul-Khair told Reuters he was among activists who had met monitors without security escorts present, handing them details of detainees and suspected detention centers. The monitors said they had found it hard to meet activists until now, but appeared sympathetic, he said.

Others said the team seemed unprepared or unwilling. They said the monitors had set up an office in a government-controlled area hard for activists to reach, and complained that many observers did not bring cameras or notepads on visits.

“I don’t think they are sympathetic, I think they are afraid,” said activist Abu Faisal, also present at the meeting. “We wanted to take them to one of the narrow alleys where there had been a lot of shelling. They wouldn’t go past the buildings where there were snipers.”

“People here are getting shot. They are here to get the facts but they are cowards and too afraid to do it,” he said.

Security Council cannot remain silent

Juppe said he believed in the Arab League’s determination, but the United Nations could not stand idly by as more people died. He said Russia continued to block decisive U.N. action.

“The (U.N.) Security Council cannot remain silent,” he said. “The savage repression is totally clear, the regime has no real future and that’s why it’s up to the international community to speak out.”

More than 5,000 people have been killed in Assad’s crackdown on the protests, according to a United Nations estimate.

Armed rebellion has begun to overshadow what began as peaceful protest as rebels fight back. Damascus says it is battling foreign-backed “terrorists” who have killed at least 2,000 members of the security forces.

Rebel leader Asaad last week ordered a stop to attacks on security forces during the monitors’ visit, but reports of assaults have continued to come in, highlighting concerns that the FSA does not fully control all armed rebels.

Nuland underscored Washington’s repeated warning that an escalation of violence would only exacerbate the problem.

“That’s exactly what the regime wants … to make Syria more violent and have an excuse to retaliate itself,” she said.

Political detainees at Damascus’s central prison started a hunger strike in protest over observers who met jailed felons during a visit, but not political prisoners, their relatives told the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

“The people the monitors met had nothing to do with recent events, so these (political) prisoners went on strike and are demanding monitors visit them,” said Rami Abdul Rahman, head of the British-based Observatory.

The government bars most foreign journalists from Syria, making it difficult to verify witness accounts.

Giving the mission a chance

Al-Araby said on Monday that Syria’s military had now withdrawn from residential areas to the outskirts of the cities, but that gunfire continued and snipers were still a threat.

He asked Syrians to “give the monitoring mission a chance to prove its presence on the ground.”

Al-Araby said the monitors had succeeded in getting food supplies into Homs, one of the centers of the violence, and had secured the release of 3,484 prisoners. Before the mission began, the rights group Avaaz said 37,000 were in detention.

Algeria expressed optimism about the Arab mission, with Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci saying it would evaluate the situation “in a more credible manner.”

And opposition Syrian National Council leader Burhan Ghalioun met the prime minister of Portugal, a current member of the Security Council, and said the observer mission “remains useful even if it does not lead to the implementation of the Arab plan.”

“It remains politically, morally and psychologically useful,” he said.

On the ground, SANA state news agency reported that saboteurs attacked a gas pipeline near Homs that supplies gas to power stations at Zara and Zeizun.

But the Syrian Revolution 2011 activist group, on its Facebook page, accused “Assad’s gangs” of blowing up the pipeline.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Centre for Freedom of Expression demanded a full inquiry into the death of Shukri Ahmed Ratib Abu Burghul, a journalist reportedly shot in the head outside his suburban Damascus home on Dec. 30.

Syria’s ruling Baath party announced it will hold its 11th party congress in the first week of February, when legislative polls were scheduled to have been held but have since been indefinitely postponed.

Israel to shut down nuclear reactor if war breaks out: Report | Firstpost.

Jerusalem: Fearing a possible missile attack on its atomic facility, Israel which has been maintaining nuclear ambiguity, will halt activities at its Dimona reactor if a war breaks out with Iran, a media report has said.

The aim of such nuclear stoppage would be to prevent damage to the reactors’ outlying area, should Iranian missiles penetrate the facilities’ defence shields, Ha’aretz reported.

A decision to this effect was taken by the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC), which comes directly under the PMO, in coordination with the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Home Front Command.

Israel has maintained a policy of nuclear ambiguity, but as per foreign media reports has about 200 nuclear arsenals in store. Reuters

Israel has maintained a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying nuclear capability, but as per foreign media reports has about 200 nuclear arsenals in store.

The working assumption shared by the Home Front Command and the IAEC management officials responsible for the two reactors is that the multilayered defence systems, which feature anti-missile missiles calibrated to intercept missiles at various heights, along with fortified installations, should be sufficiently effective to minimise damage in an attack against the reactors, the report said.

However, any defence system can be penetrated in principle so nuclear activity in the reactors will be halted should warnings come of an impending war.

This stoppage procedure could also be applied in non-war periods of escalated skirmishes that involve rocket attacks against Israel, Ha’aretz said.

The official explanation for this policy is that activity at the reactors is carried out for research purposes, and such research work does not need to be carried out constantly, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, it said.

The IDF and the IAEC are also said to be prepared for the possibility of an attempted attack on the nuclear reactors during a conflict with Iran, Syria, Hizbollah in Lebanon or Hamas and other Palestinian organisations in the Gaza Strip.

Such attacks could be carried out using missiles, rockets, planes or drones.

The workers at the reactors will however continue to report for duty during War, but will be active in specially fortified installations and bunkers, as happens with workers employed at other infrastructure or security facilities.

Dimona is located within the range of surface-to-surface missiles possessed by Iran, Syria and Hizbollah.

Many believe it can be a target if a regional war breaks out in the region should United States and Israel carry out a military strike against Iranian nuclear installations to prevent it from acquiring nuclear capability.

Washington and Jerusalem have from time to time issued veiled threats against Tehran saying “all options are on the table” to foil the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, but for the time being have settled for diplomatic options.

Arab League Falters in Syria as Options to End Crisis Dwindle – Businessweek.

By Flavia Krause-Jackson and Caroline Alexander

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — The Arab League has raised questions about its commitment to halting Syria’s deadly crackdown on protesters by putting a Sudanese general with close ties to an indicted war criminal in charge of a monitoring mission intended to hold the regime accountable.

The first 50 members of an envisioned 150-person monitoring group arrived in Syria on Dec. 26. The plan calls for a monthlong mission to ensure President Bashar al-Assad follows through on a pledge to withdraw security forces from cities, release political prisoners and allow demonstrations.

Yet in a concession that may jeopardize the league’s credibility, Sudanese Lieutenant General Mohammed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, a 63-year-old close associate of Sudan’s President Umar al-Bashir, leads a mission that was whittled down from an intended 500 observers on Assad’s request.

“The league has revealed its inexperience by appointing a crusty military intelligence guy who presumably gets on swimmingly with Assad’s cronies,” said Jeff Laurenti, a United Nations analyst at the Century Foundation, a New York-based research group. “This discredits the league just when it was shaking off decades of always being the doormat of authoritarian regimes.”

Al-Dabi’s mission to Syria didn’t get off to an auspicious start. After he visited the city of Homs, the scene of killings by government forces, the BBC cited him as saying on Dec. 29 that “some places looked a bit of a mess but there was nothing frightening.”

Killing Continues

Moreover, the killing of protesters has continued even under the presence of observers, and snipers are still on the prowl after tanks have withdrawn from cities, according to Nabil el-Arabi, president of the Arab League.

“Yes, there is still gunfire; yes, there are still snipers, and we wish for all these aspects to end,” he said in televised remarks on Jan. 2 addressing the mission’s shortcomings.

At least 49 people have been killed since Dec. 31, many by government snipers, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said yesterday. Syria is “far from meeting” its commitments to the Arab League, she said in Washington.

With Russia resistingg U.S.- and European-led efforts to seek punitive action at the UN Security Council against Assad, the Arab League remains the best hope for protesters in the 10- month-old conflict that the UN estimates has claimed more than 5,000 lives.

Still, human-rights groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have raised concerns that the team dispatched to Syria consists of bureaucrats with little expertise or training in how to uncover and report abuses or get access to military sites where prisoners may have been relocated.

‘See No Evil’

The attitude of delegates seems to be “see no evil, hear no evil,” according to Joe Stork, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East and North Africa division.

Also, al-Dabi is a “poor choice” as leader of the group, he said in a telephone interview. “His own role with Sudanese military intelligence and more recently being the point person in Darfur gives him experience in impeding human-rights investigations. He is still on the same side of the fence.”

Elevated to head of military intelligence in Sudan in 1989, al-Dabi was dispatched by al-Bashir a decade later to West Darfur as his personal representative and laid the groundwork for the government’s ensuing crackdown on insurgents. Al-Bashir is accused by the International Criminal Court of genocide in Darfur where civil war exploded in 2003.

Not everyone is critical of his selection. Mahmoud Merei, head of the Arab Organization for Human Rights, said he spoke to al-Dabi on Jan. 2 in Damascus and that “the criticism against him is baseless and uncalled for.”

‘Capable Military Man’

“Al-Dabi is a capable military man who is working objectively,” Merei said in a telephone interview yesterday. “It is very hard to judge on the delegation’s performance in a week, but a lot was accomplished, and there is a lot more to be done, like increasing the numbers of monitors. There should be at least 500 of them in all Syria.”

The Arab Parliament, an Arab advisory body, sounded the alarm on Jan. 1 by saying the mission had failed and should be terminated immediately for undermining the body’s credibility.

“The mission of the Arab League team has missed its aim of stopping the killing of children and ensuring the withdrawal of troops from the Syrian streets, giving the Syrian regime a cover to commit inhumane acts under the noses of the Arab League observers,” said Ali Salem al-Deqbasi, the Kuwaiti head of the 88-member parliament, in a statement.

Outliving Libya

Inspired by a wave of discontent that swept the Arab world and toppled autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the uprising in Syria has now outlasted the one in Libya and may turn even bloodier.

For now, the Arab League may be the only thing preventing that outcome. The State Department’s Nuland said yesterday that the U.S. “was not going to pass judgment on the Arab League mission.”

In exchange for the Arab League dropping plans to submit a proposal to the UN Security Council, Syria agreed on Dec. 19 to let the monitors into the country. The focus may yet shift to the 15-member body, which alone has the power to impose sanctions on the UN’s 193 member states.

On Jan. 7, the Arab League is scheduled to meet in Cairo and probably vote on whether to continue the mission its own advisory body has said should be sent back home. It will also discuss whether to revive plans to refer Syria to the UN. Jeffrey Feltman, assistant U.S. secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, plans to meet with league officials that day, according to Nuland.

Morocco Replaces Lebanon

A significant change that may play against Assad has taken place in the 15-member Security Council: The Arab seat has passed from Lebanon to Morocco.

The former was constricted in its ability to act against Assad because of the influence the Shiite Hezbollah movement, backed by Iran and Syria, has on its government. With Morocco, a former French colony and a moderate Muslim country, the Western powers will have an ally.

An obstacle persists in the form of veto-wielding Russia, which sells arms to Syria and maintains a naval base on its Mediterranean coast. The Kremlin has stuck to its Soviet-era ally, resisting European and U.S. calls to impose sanctions and asset freezes in line with the Arab League’s initiative.

Caught Off Guard

Instead, it caught its colleagues on the council off guard by penning a draft resolution that demanded “that all parties in Syria immediately stop any violence, irrespective of where it comes from.” The text was deemed unacceptable by Western powers for failing to place most of the blame for the violence on security forces acting under Assad’s orders.

Under the presidency of South Africa, the council will discuss the amendments made to the draft by its four European nations: Portugal, Germany, France and the U.K. They want the council to “adopt further targeted measures, including sanctions, as appropriate,” according to a draft obtained by Bloomberg News.

European nations also asked for a travel ban and asset freeze on 19 Syrian officials and an asset freeze on the country’s central bank and the Syrian Commercial Bank. The council also wants a flight ban to and from Syria and a ban “on governmental trade transactions with the country, except for strategic commodities affecting the Syrian people,” the draft says.

— With assistance from Dahlia Kholaif in Kuwait, Emre Peker in Ankara and Indira Lakshmanan in Washington. Editors: Terry Atlas, Jim Rubin.

To contact the reporters on this story: Flavia Krause-Jackson at the United Nations at fjackson@bloomberg.net; Caroline Alexander in London at calexander1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net; Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net

World News – Will Iran make good on its threat against US?.

Should the United States blink with Iran? Tehran has warned Washington against returning an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf. The White House contends Tehran’s threat is just an attempt to deflect attention from the Islamic republic’s domestic problems and says the Navy will continue operations in the Gulf.

What happens next?

We turned to Graham T. Allison, a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy in nuclear weapons and terrorism at Harvard, and Qamar-ul Huda, a scholar of Islam and theology, from the U.S. Institute of Peace. In emails to msnbc.com, they shared some thoughts on Iran’s war of words — and the possibility of an escalation.

Belfer Center

Graham T. Allison of the Belfer Center.

Iran has threatened to take military action if the U.S. keeps sending aircraft carriers into the Gulf. What is the probability Iran would make good on its threat?

ALLISON: Low. Iran must be aware that the U.S. will continue to send aircraft carriers into international waters regardless of Iranian threats, and that any direct military confrontation would not end well for Tehran. However, we face the risk of unauthorized or low-level skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces escalating into a broader conflict.

HUDA: In March 2007, Iran captured 15 British sailors and marines from the Strait of Hormuz, and the government allowed the British embassy to be ransacked by protesters. Since the November 2011 United Nations report found that Iran has worked and may be working on attaining nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies are pressing harder to enforce sanctions against Iran. Essentially, relations with Iran have gone from bad to worse in a matter of five months.

Courtesy Qamar-ul Huda

Qamar-ul Huda of the U.S. Institute of Peace.

If the recent past is any indicator of events, Iran’s threats must be taken seriously. A military attack by Iran against the U.S. would have a devastating strategic consequence for Iran. About less than 25 percent of U.S. imported oil comes from the Gulf region; however, China’s oil supplies would be significantly threatened by a military conflict.

Iran’s threats are not only directed at the U.S., but to the already unstable global economy. With the uncertainty of EU financial industry and U.S.’s weak economy, Iran is using this moment to test Western interests in the region.

What does Iran have to gain from a military confrontation with the U.S.?

ALLISON: It is certainly not in the rational self-interest of the Iranian state to provoke a confrontation with America, whose military dwarfs that of Iran. However, it is likely that certain elements within the regime would welcome such a confrontation, as they feel that American military action could bolster support for their government and distract the Iranian people from growing economic problems.

HUDA: Iran’s military confrontation with the U.S. allows them to rein in dissenters, reformers and liberals, and embolden the power of the hardliners in Iran, namely the Revolutionary Guard institutions. Iranian hardliners welcome an escalation of conflict with the U.S. and the West because it allows them to consolidate their internal power. The elite of hardliners are still from the 1979 revolution period, and they understand that an anti-Western narrative is their core asset. With the recent shooting down of a U.S. spy drone near the Iran-Afghanistan border, and the capture of an [alleged] Afghan-American spy in Iran, Iranian hardliners in the government are trying to deflect the nuclear issue and simultaneously make a case of preventing a U.S.-led confrontation. Internally, Iran is using recent political events, including the Arab Spring protests, as justification to defend national sovereignty.

Iran has purchased from the Chinese and Russians sophisticated midget submarines, mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, and a fleet of small fast boats capable of naval warfare. Knowing their asymmetric  military power, and visible soft power in the Middle East, Iran will promptly leverage their power against Western interests.

What does the U.S. have to gain from a military confrontation with Iran?

ALLISON: Although some argue that U.S. military action against Iran would be a relatively painless way to delay its nuclear program and maybe even inspire a popular uprising, my best judgment is that an attack is as likely to advance the date on which Iran tests a bomb as to delay it. A military confrontation with Iran would also overturn the chessboard in the Middle East, making America (and Israel) the issue for most of the people in the street and risk retaliation that could bring about a wider regional war.

HUDA: The U.S. maintains that their military exercises are according to international maritime conventions and for the security of the region. By moving forward to counteract Iranian threats, the U.S. reassures their allies of their commitment to the region, and more importantly, it bolsters the U.S.-Gulf states alliance of limiting Iranian aggression. While a military escalation with Iran will lead to a deeper cold war with Iran, there is no other way to ensure that Iran will draw back.

Allison is the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy Center of Government. For three decades, he has been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism and decision-making. He served as assistant secretary for The U.S. Department of Defense in the first Clinton Administration.

Huda is a senior program officer in the Religion and Peacemaking Center and scholar of Islam at U.S. Institute of Peace. He teaches conflict resolution, Islamic theology, Islam and Western studies at Georgetown University.

‘Israeli drone spying on Turkey almost shot down’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Turkish media outlet claims fighter jets called up to intercept unmanned aerial vehicle circling over missile batteries, radar equipment

Ynet

An Israeli drone flying over Turkey was nearly intercepted by Turkish aerial defense forces, an Istanbul-based media outlet reported on Tuesday.

Two F-16 fighter jets were called-up to the area, but failed to locate the drone.

“The Israeli ‘Heron’ drone was detected spying on military headquarters in Turkey’s southern Hatay province,” the report stated, adding that “the aircraft hovered over the Turkish forces in order to capture images of missile batteries and radar equipment.”

‘Officer noticed bright light.’ (Photo: AFP)

A Turkish officer, who reportedly noticed a bright light in the sky, asked a senior sergeant to confirm the identity of the object. When they received confirmation, the soldiers abandoned their post for fear of an attack.

Meanwhile, the report claimed the Turkish radar continued to monitor the unmanned aerial vehicle, while the Turkish army waited for authorization to shoot it down.

The report stated that “by the time the order was given, the drone had already left the area.”

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit refused to comment on the Turkish report.

The IDF maintains full coordination with the Turkish army regarding all flights in the eastern Mediterranean region. Turkey has also purchased from Israel10 drones of the same kind in recent years.

The Heron drone is designed for prolonged flights at medium altitude. During its flight testing, the aircraft preformed a 52 hour flight, but its operational flight time is much lower due to the heavy weight of the cargo.

Ahmadinejad: Israel’s attempts to ‘Judaize’ Jerusalem will bring about its end – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iranian President says ‘Zionists feign piety’ in regard to Jerusalem in order to strip it of its Islamic identity, claims Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the most important issue in the world.

By Haaretz

Israeli attempts to “Judaize” Jerusalem will bring about its end, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday, saying Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land was the most important topic in the world.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking to his supporters in Ilam southwest of Tehran, December 28, 2011.
	Photo by: Reuters

Speaking to a delegation to the Turkish-Palestinian Parliamentary Friendship Group, Ahmadinejad was quoted by Iranian state television that the “Zionists, who have no faith in religion or even God, now claim piety and intend to take away the Islamic identity of the Holy Quds.”

“This ridiculous move is in fact the continuation of the colonialist polices of oppressors, which will not save the Zionist regime, but also take the regime closer to the endpoint of its existence,” the Iranian president added.

Speaking of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ahmadinejad was quoted by Iran’s official news agency Iran as saying that the “issue of Palestine is the main issue in the region and the whole world and nobody can ignore it.”

Iran has been embroiled in a standoff with the west over its contentious nuclear program, which Israel and the United States claim has military aspects.

Most recently, Iran and the United States have been involved in a heated verbal spat over an Iranian threat to close off the Straits of Hormuz – a waterway crucial to the distribution of Persian Gulf crude oil supplies – if the West sanctions its oil sector.

Earlier Tuesday, American officials rejected an Iranian demand that its naval vessels leave the Gulf, indicating that the threat itself was an indication that economic sanctions on Iran were beginning to take a toll on the Islamic Republic.

“These are regularly scheduled movements and in accordance with our long-standing commitments to the security and stability of the region and in support of ongoing operations,” Commander Bill Speaks said in an emailed response to Reuters questions.

“The U.S. Navy operates under international maritime conventions to maintain a constant state of high vigilance in order to ensure the continued, safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce,” he said.

When asked later Tuesday if the U.S. intends to send naval reinforcements to the Gulf in response to Iranian talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, Pentagon spokesperson George Little did not answer directly but said, “No one in this government seeks confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz. It’s important to lower the temperature.”

Also referring to Iranian threats on Tuesday, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the U.S. saw “these threats from Tehran as just increasing evidence that the international pressure is beginning to bite.”

“They are feeling increasingly isolated and they are trying to divert the attention of their own public from the difficulties inside Iran, including the economic difficulties as a result of sanctions,” Nuland told a news briefing.