WarSclerotic

Surprise IDF Navy Drill as Iran Ends War Games – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

(The pic below is of Daburs… My old unit. – JW)

Navy in surprise drill off Haifa coast

Israel news photo: IDF

The IDF staged a surprise drill at its base at the port of Haifa as Iran completed ten days of “war games” that included a threat on Israel.

Iran claimed it tested a long-range missile that can reach Israeli bases as well U.S. military posts in the Middle East, but Russia rejected the idea that Iran has the ability to launch the missile Iran said it fired.

Haifa base commander Brigadier General Eli Sharvit, ordered the surprise drill to check the readiness of Israel Navy vessels to depart from port and head out to sea to conduct operation, the IDF said. A majority of the Israel Navy’s operational strength is based in Haifa, which was bombed several times by Hizbullah terrorists in the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006.

All vessels at the Haifa base, including missile boats, submarines, patrol ships and other vessels took part in the exercise.

“We must maintain high readiness and preparedness, in terms of the speed of ships leaving port and our ability to supply them, to enable them to function continuously at sea, for operational needs in various arenas,” Brig. Gen. Sharvit said.

He added that operational missions require the “highest fitness and readiness to meet short departure time frames, including logistical support capabilities during and after the departure of the vessels.”

The navy soldiers “fully met the requirements we set for ourselves,” he added, and the drill indicated “the high operational strength that characterizes the Haifa base.”

Analysis: Fuel test won’t hasten… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    VIENNA – Iran’s latest claim of a breakthrough in its nuclear program appears unlikely to bring it any closer to having atomic bombs, but serves rather as another defiant message to the West.

This week’s announcement that Iran has successfully made and tested fuel rods for use in nuclear power plants appeared designed to show that sanctions are failing to halt its technical advances and to strengthen its hand in any renewed negotiations with the major powers.
“The development itself doesn’t put them any closer to producing weapons,” said Peter Crail of the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.

It could be a way of telling Tehran’s foes that time is running out if they want to revive an atomic fuel swap deal that collapsed two years ago but is still seen by some experts as offering the best chance to start building badly needed trust.

Diplomats believe Iran has in the past overstated its nuclear progress to gain leverage in its standoff with Western capitals, and the testing of domestically made fuel does not mean the country is about to start using it to run reactors.

“It is a step in the direction of no longer needing supply from other countries,” said Associate Professor Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Kennedy School.

“But it will be a good number of months or years before it will be at the point where they no longer need supply from other countries.”

Even if the fuel step is confirmed, it is unlikely to add much to already growing Western suspicions that Iran is seeking the capability to manufacture nuclear arms, a charge it denies.

Iran “still needs to pretend” that it is processing uranium in order to make nuclear fuel and not for weapons, a Western diplomat in Vienna said.

Negotiating tactic?

Iran’s announcement that it had produced the fuel rods and inserted them in a research reactor core in Tehran coincided with an escalating war of words with the West, in a long-running nuclear row that could spark a wider Middle East conflict.

Tehran has threatened to take action if the US Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf, its most aggressive warning yet after weeks of saber-rattling as new US and European sanctions take a toll on its economy.

But Iran is also sending out more conciliatory signals: inviting senior UN nuclear inspectors to visit and suggesting a resumption of long-stalled talks with the six big powers – the United States, Russia, France, Germany, China and Britain.

That may be a sign of nervousness within the leadership – as the Iranian currency tumbles to a record low against the US dollar – that tightening sanctions might hurt the major oil producer’s lifeblood crude exports.

Nevertheless, Sunday’s statement of a fuel breakthrough once again underlined Iran’s determination to press ahead with an atomic program its clerical rulers regard as a source of power and prestige.

“They announced the fuel rod production and called for talks at the same time, suggesting the fuel rod is intended more as negotiating leverage,” said Crail of the Arms Control Association.

The United States says the drive it leads to isolate Iran has slowed Tehran’s nuclear program.

But despite tougher sanctions and suspected sabotage, Iran is pressing ahead with the work and its stockpile of low-enriched uranium would be sufficient for at least two atomic bombs if refined much further.

Western experts give different estimates of how quickly Iran could assemble a nuclear weapon if it decides to do so – ranging from as little as six months to a year or more.

In 2010, Iran alarmed the West by starting to enrich uranium to a fissile purity of 20 percent, up from 3.5 percent usually required for power plants, bringing it significantly closer to the 90 percent level required for weapons.

Iran said it was forced to take this step to make fuel for the Tehran research reactor after failing to agree terms for a deal to obtain it from the West. But many analysts doubted it would be able to convert its uranium into special reactor fuel.

Harvard’s Bunn described Iran’s reported nuclear advance this week as “an early test” of whether it could make fuel able to withstand the radiation, temperature and pressure conditions that exist in a reactor.

“It is a long road yet before you would have fuel that you could actually load in the reactor as the fuel that was going to sustain that reactor’s operation,” he said.

Tehran decries foreign troops pr… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi continued Tehran’s heated rhetoric against the West on Wednesday, decrying the presence of foreign military forces near the Strait of Hormuz.

“The presence of extra-regional powers in the Persian Gulf is unhelpful and damaging and their presence has no result other than turbulence in the region,” he told reporters following a cabinet meeting, according to a Tehran Times report.

Vahidi added that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is planning on holding another military exercise in the near future, according to Iran’s student newspaper ISNA.

Iran recently concluded a ten-day naval drill, during which it test fired two long-range missiles. Iran said that it was using the test to display its resolve in countering any attack by enemies such as Israel or the United States.

The Iranian defense minister’s comments followed an Iranian threat Tuesday that the country would “take action” if the US Navy were to move an aircraft carrier into the Gulf. The statement made by Iran’s Army chief Ataollah Salehi was Tehran’s most aggressive yet after weeks of saber-rattling following new US and EU financial sanctions took a toll on its economy.

The prospect of sanctions targeting the oil sector in a serious way for the first time has hit Iran’s rial currency, which fell by 40 percent against the dollar in the past month. It recovered 20% of its value Wednesday through intervention by Iran’s Central Bank.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Iran is baiting, but America won’t bite – FT.com.

Iran has been relentlessly provoking America for the last 10 days. Its military recently threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran warned on Tuesday that US aircraft carriers should not return to the Gulf. But Iran is bluffing and war with the US or Israel is very unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Tehran is indeed angry and its rage has been steadily building in recent months. The latest and strongest trigger was a sanctions bill, signed by President Barack Obama on December 31, which will make it more difficult and less profitable for Iran to sell oil. The legislation goes after its economic lifeline: oil revenues. The move doubtlessly chafed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle, and led them to respond predictably – by rattling western markets and diplomats.

But Iran does not want war. Military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz would block its own ability to export oil. An attempt to close the strait would be fruitless because the US Navy could open it within weeks. War could easily spread and lead to an attack on Iran’s crown jewel – its nuclear programme. Ayatollah Khamenei has his hands full at home with a plummeting currency and infighting among his elite. Tehran’s main goal is to scare the US and its allies away from implementing sanctions against Iran’s oil exports. And despite the bellicose rhetoric, there are signs that the regime seeks to return to talks – suggesting a two-track policy.

For a war, Iran needs an opponent; but neither the US nor Israel are interested in an imminent fight. Israel is pleased with the new oil sanctions. An attack on Iran would have serious challenges – Israel could only inflict limited damage on the nuclear programme and would face severe retribution from Tehran. Meanwhile, leading members of the US military have spoken out against attacking Iran, the American public has no appetite for another war, and conflict in the Gulf would lead to a spike in oil prices, potentially plunging the global economy into full-blown recession.

Undoubtedly, however, miscalculation by Iran or the US could lead to conflict, as the sides’ naval and other military hardware are in proximity. In the more distant future, as yet unseen progress by Iran on its nuclear programme, especially in building faster centrifuges, could cause conflict – particularly if the new equipment is used to build a bomb.

But many observers are misreading the current joust in the Gulf. Iran is bluffing and baiting, but neither the US nor Israel will bite.

This article is co-authored by Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, and Cliff Kupchan, a director at the political risk consultancy

Iran’s defense minister reiterates warning against U.S. navy presence in Gulf.

Wednesday, 04 January 2012

Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that Iran will do anything to preserve the security of the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf. (Reuters)

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Syria’s death toll up as Arab mission criticized; rebel leader threatens more attacks.

Al Arabiya

Wednesday, 04 January 2012

Demonstrators protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Kafranbel, near Idlib. (Reuters)

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As many as 29 people have been killed by the fire of Syrian security forces across the country on Tuesday, Al Arabiya reported citing Syrian activists as western countries became critical of the Arab League observers.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that eighteen security force personnel were killed in the southern town of Deraa as dozens of deserting soldiers returned fire on police who shot at them as they fled their posts.

The commander of Syria’s armed rebels has threatened to step up attacks on President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, saying he was frustrated with Arab League monitors’ lack of progress in ending a government crackdown on protests.

“If we feel they (the monitors) are still not serious in a few days, or at most within a week, we will take a decision which will surprise the regime and the whole world,” the head of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Colonel Riad al-Asaad, told Reuters in an interview.

Syrian Colonel Riad al-Asaad speaks during an interview with Reuters at a refugee camp in Hatay, near the Turkish-Syrian border, Oct. 6, 2011. (Photo by Reuters)

The Arab League said on Monday its monitors were helping to stem bloodshed, 10 months into a popular uprising against Syria’s ruling family, and asked for more time to do their job.

But since the team’s arrival last week, security forces have killed more than 132 people, according to a Reuters tally. Other activist groups say 390 have been killed.

Security forces also opened fire and killed two people at a protest in the central city of Hama, the same day that activists met monitors and said the team seemed powerless to help them.

Transformative shift

The monitors are checking whether Syria is implementing an Arab League peace plan by pulling troops from flashpoint cities and releasing thousands detained in the revolt, one of a series of Arab uprisings that have toppled four leaders in a year.

Asaad, whose FSA is an umbrella group of armed factions, said he was waiting for the League’s report on its first week before deciding whether to make a “transformative shift” that he said would mark a major escalation against the security forces.

“Since they (the monitors) entered, we had many more martyrs,” he said, speaking by telephone from his safe haven in southern Turkey. “Is it in the Syrian people’s interest to allow the massacre to continue?”

The White House on Tuesday condemned the Syrian regime’s unrelenting violence against protesters, saying it was “past time” for the U.N. Security Council to take measures against Damascus.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Syria had failed to comply with standards set by regional observers monitoring the situation.

“As sniper fire, torture, and murder in Syria continue, it is clear that the requirements of the Arab League protocol have not been met,” Carney said, according to AFP.

“We believe it’s past time for the Security Council to act,” Carney said.

Arab foreign ministers were to meet in Cairo on Saturday to discuss the mission’s first report, the League said on a day when observers faced scathing criticism from activists.

“We want to tell Nabil al-Araby that the lack of professionalism of the observers and non-compliance with their arrival times in specific places have left many people killed,” said the Local Coordination Committees, which organize the protests, according to AFP.

It further claimed the observers were being hampered by the regime.

“Soldiers wear police uniforms, drive repainted military vehicles and change the names of places, but this does not mean the army withdrew from cities and streets, or that the regime is applying the provisions of the Arab protocol.”

The LCC has also been criticized by Syrian activists and opposition figures over the choice of a former top Sudanese military commander, General Mohammed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, to head its observer operation.

Dabi served under Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.

Controversy over Arab League mission

The Arab League mission has already been plagued by controversy. Protesters have complained about its small size and were appalled when the head of the mission suggested he was reassured by first impressions of Homs, one of the main centers of unrest.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Tuesday it was crucial that monitors were able to act independently. Protesters have complained that security forces regularly accompany monitors, making them difficult to approach.

“Do they truly have genuinely free access to information? We are waiting for the report they will produce in the coming days for more clarity,” Juppe told the French news channel i>tele.

The U.S. State Department noted that violence against the protesters had not stopped, and said it was concerned by reports that soldiers were donning police uniform to mask their actions.

“In some cases the regime is actually putting out its own false reports that monitors are on the way, demonstrators come into the streets, and then they fire on them,” spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

“The Syrian regime has not lived up to the full spectrum of commitments that it made to the Arab League when it accepted its proposal some nine weeks ago.’

Activists who met the monitors in Hama on Tuesday said they doubted whether the monitors had freedom of movement.

Mohammed Abul-Khair told Reuters he was among activists who had met monitors without security escorts present, handing them details of detainees and suspected detention centers. The monitors said they had found it hard to meet activists until now, but appeared sympathetic, he said.

Others said the team seemed unprepared or unwilling. They said the monitors had set up an office in a government-controlled area hard for activists to reach, and complained that many observers did not bring cameras or notepads on visits.

“I don’t think they are sympathetic, I think they are afraid,” said activist Abu Faisal, also present at the meeting. “We wanted to take them to one of the narrow alleys where there had been a lot of shelling. They wouldn’t go past the buildings where there were snipers.”

“People here are getting shot. They are here to get the facts but they are cowards and too afraid to do it,” he said.

Security Council cannot remain silent

Juppe said he believed in the Arab League’s determination, but the United Nations could not stand idly by as more people died. He said Russia continued to block decisive U.N. action.

“The (U.N.) Security Council cannot remain silent,” he said. “The savage repression is totally clear, the regime has no real future and that’s why it’s up to the international community to speak out.”

More than 5,000 people have been killed in Assad’s crackdown on the protests, according to a United Nations estimate.

Armed rebellion has begun to overshadow what began as peaceful protest as rebels fight back. Damascus says it is battling foreign-backed “terrorists” who have killed at least 2,000 members of the security forces.

Rebel leader Asaad last week ordered a stop to attacks on security forces during the monitors’ visit, but reports of assaults have continued to come in, highlighting concerns that the FSA does not fully control all armed rebels.

Nuland underscored Washington’s repeated warning that an escalation of violence would only exacerbate the problem.

“That’s exactly what the regime wants … to make Syria more violent and have an excuse to retaliate itself,” she said.

Political detainees at Damascus’s central prison started a hunger strike in protest over observers who met jailed felons during a visit, but not political prisoners, their relatives told the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

“The people the monitors met had nothing to do with recent events, so these (political) prisoners went on strike and are demanding monitors visit them,” said Rami Abdul Rahman, head of the British-based Observatory.

The government bars most foreign journalists from Syria, making it difficult to verify witness accounts.

Giving the mission a chance

Al-Araby said on Monday that Syria’s military had now withdrawn from residential areas to the outskirts of the cities, but that gunfire continued and snipers were still a threat.

He asked Syrians to “give the monitoring mission a chance to prove its presence on the ground.”

Al-Araby said the monitors had succeeded in getting food supplies into Homs, one of the centers of the violence, and had secured the release of 3,484 prisoners. Before the mission began, the rights group Avaaz said 37,000 were in detention.

Algeria expressed optimism about the Arab mission, with Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci saying it would evaluate the situation “in a more credible manner.”

And opposition Syrian National Council leader Burhan Ghalioun met the prime minister of Portugal, a current member of the Security Council, and said the observer mission “remains useful even if it does not lead to the implementation of the Arab plan.”

“It remains politically, morally and psychologically useful,” he said.

On the ground, SANA state news agency reported that saboteurs attacked a gas pipeline near Homs that supplies gas to power stations at Zara and Zeizun.

But the Syrian Revolution 2011 activist group, on its Facebook page, accused “Assad’s gangs” of blowing up the pipeline.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Centre for Freedom of Expression demanded a full inquiry into the death of Shukri Ahmed Ratib Abu Burghul, a journalist reportedly shot in the head outside his suburban Damascus home on Dec. 30.

Syria’s ruling Baath party announced it will hold its 11th party congress in the first week of February, when legislative polls were scheduled to have been held but have since been indefinitely postponed.

Senator queries Obama on Iran sanctions – JPost – International.

    WASHINGTON – A Republican senator on Tuesday questioned President Barack Obama’s commitment to new sanctions on Iran’s central bank, noting the president had claimed the right to sidestep some of the requirements when he signed them into law last week.

In a statement issued as he signed a defense bill into law on Saturday, Obama said several provisions including the sanctions that target Iran’s central bank “would interfere with my constitutional authority to conduct foreign relations.”

The president, a Democrat, said in his statement that if any application of these provisions conflicted with his constitutional authorities, “I will treat the provisions as non-binding.”

Senator Mark Kirk, one of the authors of the new sanctions on Iran, said on Tuesday that Obama was challenging the entire US Senate if he did not implement the new sanctions, because senators approved them unanimously before they were appended to the defense bill.

“With the Senate voting 100-0 to cripple the Central Bank of Iran, the president’s signing statement hinting he will ignore parts of this law risks overwhelming opposition in the Congress,” Kirk, a Republican, said through a spokesman.

The new sanctions would penalize foreign financial institutions that do business with Iran’s central bank, the main conduit for its oil revenues.

Obama has approved a series of sanctions on Iran and warned that no option is “off the table” in stopping Tehran from its suspected quest for a nuclear weapon.

But as Congress considered the sanctions on Iran’s central bank, Obama aides said that threatening US allies might not be the best way to get their cooperation in action against Iran.

As Obama signed the bill last week, senior US officials said Washington was consulting with its foreign partners to ensure the measures can work without harming global energy markets.

Iran threatened on Tuesday to take action if the US Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf, Tehran’s most aggressive statement yet after weeks of sabre-rattling as new U.S. and European Union financial sanctions take a toll on its economy

In his signing statement last Saturday, Obama also expressed concern about the constitutionality of a number of other provisions in the defense bill that related to the treatment and transfer of detainees and said he would interpret them “to avoid constitutional conflict”.

Christopher Kelley, a Miami University of Ohio professor who has researched presidential signing statements, said he found at least 10 instances in Obama’s statement on the defense bill when he challenged the bill’s constitutionality, although there may be more.

“Saying things like ‘I will treat it as non-binding’ is a clear constitutional challenge,” Kelley said in an email to Reuters.

The legislation authorized US defense programs from war fighting to weapons building for 2012. Obama said he signed the bill because he wanted to ensure key services and defense programs get the financing they need.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 4, 2012, 11:48 AM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli Eitan drone

Military tensions are building up on Syria’s borders. Wednesday, Jan. 4, Turkish military sources reported sighting an Israeli Eitan (Heron) drone in the sky above the Turkish Hawk Brigade 14 stationed on the northern Syrian border at Kirikhan in the Hatay district of southern Turkey.  The Israeli drone was said to have hovered over the encampment for four hours.
A request by local Turkish officers to fire anti-air missiles to down the Israeli Eitan went unanswered by the Turkish general staff until the drone was gone. According to the Turkish sources, two Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled from the Diyarbakir 2nd Air Force Command Strike Center and stayed overhead as long as the Israeli drone was present.

debkafile reports this is the first time Israeli UAV’s have been reported monitoring events on the Turkish-Syrian border. On Dec. 16, our sources disclosed 21 Syrian Scud missile launchers had been stationed opposite Hatay province as a warning to Turkey, NATO and Arab forces to stay out of the Syrian uprising.

Then, on Dec. 27, our military sources reported that that Qatar had organized and funded an airlift to Hatay of Libyan militia fighters under the command of former Abdelhakim Belhaj, ex-al Qaeda and commander of Islamic Fighting Group in Libya-IFG which seized control of Tripoli.  He has established a command post in the Turkish town of Antakya (Antioch).

The Libyan and Free Syrian Army-FASA fighters are training together in Turkish military camps, the main one being the Hawk Brigade 14 over which the Israeli drone hovered. It is expected to be the main jumping off base for any foreign military intervention in Syria.

Across the border meanwhile, Syria continues its military buildup.

At the opposite end of Syria, the southern Horan province, fierce battles raged Tuesday, Jan. 4 between Syrian troops and mutineers of the 38th Mechanized Brigade, the bulk of which has gone over to the anti-Assad opposition.  Both sides fighting with heavy T-72 tanks and artillery around Sida, a village in the Syrian-Jordanian-Israeli border triangle, suffered dozens of casualties.

The 38th Brigade belongs to the 7th Division which is stationed on the Syrian-Israeli border which cuts through the Golan. Sounds of gunfire were clearly heard in Israel. The brigade was the largest military unit to have deserted Bashar Assad’s army in the ten-month popular uprising against his regime.

War Imminent in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?.

The pieces and policies for potential conflict in the Persian Gulf are seemingly drawing inexorably together.

Since 24 December the Iranian Navy has been holding its ten-day Velayat 90 naval exercises, covering an area in the Arabian Sea stretching from east of the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The day the maneuvers opened Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told a press conference that the exercises were intended to show “Iran’s military prowess and defense capabilities in international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment.” The exercise is Iran’s first naval training drill since May 2010, when the country held its Velayat 89 naval maneuvers in the same area. Velayat 90 is the largest naval exercise the country has ever held.

The participating Iranian forces have been divided into two groups, blue and orange, with the blue group representing Iranian forces and orange the enemy. Velayat 90 is involving the full panoply of Iranian naval force, with destroyers, missile boats, logistical support ships, hovercraft, aircraft, drones and advanced coastal missiles and torpedoes all being deployed. Tactics include mine-laying exercises and preparations for chemical attack. Iranian naval commandos, marines and divers are also participating.

The exercises have put Iranian warships in close proximity to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz, a 21 mile-wide waterway at its narrowest point. Roughly 40 percent of the world’s oil tanker shipments transit the strait daily, carrying 15.5 million barrels of Saudi, Iraqi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and United Arab Emirates crude oil, leading the United States Energy Information Administration to label the Strait of Hormuz “the world’s most important oil chokepoint.”

In light of Iran’s recent capture of an advanced CIA RQ-170 Sentinel drone earlier this month, Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Seyed Mahmoud Moussavi noted that the Iranian Velayat 90 forces also conducted electronic warfare tests, using modern Iranian-made electronic jamming equipment to disrupt enemy radar and contact systems. Further tweaking Uncle Sam’s nose, Moussavi added that Iranian Navy drones involved in Velayat 90 conducted successful patrolling and surveillance operations.

Thousands of miles to the west, adding oil to the fire, President Obama is preparing to sign legislation that, if fully enforced, could impose harsh penalties on all customers for Iranian oil, with the explicit aim of severely impeding Iran’s ability to sell it.

How serious are the Iranians about the proposed sanctions and possible attack over its civilian nuclear program and what can they deploy if push comes to shove? According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ The Military Balance 2011, Iran has 23 submarines, 100+ “coastal and combat” patrol craft, 5 mine warfare and anti-mine craft, 13 amphibious landing vessels and 26 “logistics and support” ships. Add to that the fact that Iran has emphasized that it has developed indigenous “asymmetrical warfare” naval doctrines, and it is anything but clear what form Iran’s naval response to sanctions or attack could take. The only certainty is that it is unlikely to resemble anything taught at the U.S. Naval Academy.

The proposed Obama administration energy sanctions heighten the risk of confrontation and carry the possibility of immense economic disruption from soaring oil prices, given the unpredictability of the Iranian response. Addressing the possibility of tightened oil sanctions Iran’s first vice president Mohammad-Reza Rahimi on 27 December said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran has earlier warned that if either the U.S. or Israel attack, it will target 32 American bases in the Middle East and close the Strait of Hormuz. On 28 December Iranian Navy commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari observed, “Closing the Strait of Hormuz for the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran is very easy. It is a capability that has been built from the outset into our naval forces’ abilities.”

But adding an apparent olive branch Sayyari added, “But today we are not in the Hormuz Strait. We are in the Sea of Oman and we do not need to close the Hormuz Strait. Today we are just dealing with the Sea of Oman. Therefore, we can control it from right here and this is one of our prime abilities for such vital straits and our abilities are far, far more than they think.”

There are dim lights at the end of the seemingly darker and darker tunnel. The proposed sanctions legislation allows Obama to waive sanctions if they cause the price of oil to rise or threaten national security.

Furthermore, there is the wild card of Iran’s oil customers, the most prominent of which is China, which would hardly be inclined to go along with increased sanctions.

But one thing should be clear in Washington – however odious the U.S. government might find Iran’s mullahcracy, it is most unlikely to cave in to either economic or military intimidation that would threaten the nation’s existence, and if backed up against the wall with no way out, would just as likely go for broke and use every weapon at its disposal to defend itself. Given their evident cyber abilities in hacking the RQ-170 Sentinel drone and their announcement of an indigenous naval doctrine, a “cakewalk” victory with “mission accomplished” declared within a few short weeks seems anything but assured, particularly as it would extend the military arc of crisis from Iraq through Iran to Afghanistan, a potential shambolic military quagmire beyond Washington’s, NATO’s and Tel Aviv’s resources to quell.

It is worth remembering that chess was played in Sassanid Iran 1,400 years ago, where it was known as “chatrang.” What is occurring now off the Persian Gulf is a diplomatic and military game of chess, with global implications.

Washington’s concept of squeezing a country’s government by interfering with its energy policies has a dolorous history seven decades old.

When Japan invaded Vichy French-ruled southern Indo-China in July 1941 the U.S. demanded Japan withdraw. In addition, on 1 August the U.S., Japan’s biggest oil supplier at the time, imposed an oil embargo on the country.

Pearl Harbor occurred less than four months later.

Turkey FM to visit Iran for nuclear talks – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Visit comes amid friction between two neighboring nations over Turkey’s decision to host a NATO missile system designed to counter Iranian missile threats.

By The Associated Press

Turkish officials said Wednesday that Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will visit Iran for talks on the country’s nuclear program and developments in Iraq and Syria.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said Davutoglu will pay a two-day visit to Tehran, starting on Wednesday.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, shakes hands with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in Tehran, July 11, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

It says the talks are part of regular meetings between the two countries’ foreign ministers held twice a year.

The visit, however, comes amid increased friction between the two neighboring nations over Turkey’s decision to host a NATO missile system designed to counter Iranian missile threats, and also over their opposing views on the Syrian uprising against the regime of President Bashar Assad.

Iran is suspected of trying to produce nuclear weapons. Iran has said its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.