WarSclerotic

U.S. says will continue to deploy warships in Persian Gulf despite Iranian threats – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Defense Department spokesman says U.S. Navy ‘committed to security and stability of region’; statement comes after Iran threatens retaliation against continued U.S. presence in Gulf.

By Reuters

The United States will continue to deploy its warships in the Gulf, a defense spokesman said on Tuesday after Iran threatened to take action if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf.

	The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) transits the Strait of Hormuz, November 12, 2011.
	Photo by: Reuters

“These are regularly scheduled movements and in accordance with our long-standing commitments to the security and stability of the region and in support of ongoing operations,” Commander Bill Speaks said in an emailed response to Reuters questions.

“The U.S. Navy operates under international maritime conventions to maintain a constant state of high vigilance in order to ensure the continued, safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce,” he said.

Earlier on Tuesday, Iran said it would take action if a U.S. aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises returns to the Gulf. The state news agency IRNA quoted army chief Ataollah Salehi as saying that “Iran will not repeat its warning … the enemy’s carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf.”

Iran completed 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf on Monday, and said during the drills that if foreign powers imposed sanctions on its crude exports it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world’s traded oil is shipped.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, said it would not allow shipping to be disrupted in the strait.

Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during its naval drill, flexing its military muscle in the face of mounting Western pressure over its controversial nuclear program.
Iran also said it had no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz but had carried out “mock” exercises on shutting the strategic waterway.

Iran Missile Drill Results Exaggerated, Images Photoshopped.

Updated: Tuesday, 03 Jan 2012, 9:54 AM EST
Published : Tuesday, 03 Jan 2012, 9:36 AM EST

Read more: http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/news/iran-missile-drill-results-exaggerated-images-photoshopped-010212#ixzz1iPQPNMEH

Israel Hayom.

Instability in Syria may spill over into the Golan Heights, Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned MKs on Monday during a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Speaking about potential challenges in the North and South, Barak said, “There could be potential ramifications from Syria in the Golan Heights and indeed in wider territories as a result of [Syrian President Bashar Assad] losing control.”

He added that, “In the background lurk Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, as well as a delegitimization campaign against Israel whose purpose is to isolate and limit Israel’s freedom of action.”

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Nevertheless, according to comments Barak made in mid-December at the World Policy Conference in Vienna, Israel would welcome Assad’s exit.

“Something is wrong with [the Assad] family, the way they suppress the will of the Syrian people, killing them, slaughtering their own people,” Barak said during a speech at the conference. “They are going to disappear, probably in a few weeks … The falling down of this family is a blessing for the Middle East,” he said.

Last month, speaking during a Golani Brigade drill on the Golan Heights, Barak also said Israel is concerned that Hezbollah will capitalize on the unrest in Syria by moving advanced weaponry out of Syria to prevent it from being captured by opposition groups if the Assad regime collapses. He hopes that the Lebanese-Israeli border would remain quiet, Barak added, but nevertheless the Israel Defense Forces were prepared for any development on the Syrian and Lebanese fronts.

The defense minister also spoke on Monday about security challenges coming from the Sinai, warning, “The Sinai could turn into a greenhouse where terrorist groups grow and flourish.”

“All of this necessitates preparedness and alertness from the defense establishment,” Barak stressed. “These challenges increase the chances that we will see an escalation, and this will continue for a number of years until we have both stability and clarity in our region.”

Barak also noted that the ongoing economic crisis was distracting the West from global issues.

“The main focus of [the West’s] attention, as mentioned, will turn toward political-economic challenges while the rest of the burning issues will be left to crisis management teams,” he said, adding that 2012 will thus bring both challenges and opportunities to Israel.

Commenting on the role of the U.S. in global security issues, the defense minister said the U.S. administration is currently buried in work because of the economic crisis, adding, “This damages the ability and readiness of the U.S. to project power. Despite this, America has been and remains the only superpower.”

2012: The Year Of Iran? | Iran | Strait_Of_Hormuz | Gulf | Foreign Matters | Sky News Blogs.

Each year, for about 8 years, the month of January has brought the prediction; ‘This will be the year of Iran’

It’s always been possible, but I’ve never been convinced, I’m not convinced that it will come true this year either, but, all the reasons why it might are coming to a head.

It’s not just that after all this time the ability of the Iranians to ‘break out’ and build nuclear weapons is much more advanced. It is a range of other factors.

Diplomacy has failed. Red lines have been crossed. Iran is moving its most sensitive equipment into hardened bunkers. Bunker busting missiles have been ordered. War games have been played. Major US troops concentrations are now out of region. The US has just tightened sanctions, the EU may do so at the end of the month. The sabre rattling continues.

There are arguments in favour of attacking Iran, and arguments against; both have consequences.

Attack Iran, smash its air defences, and navy, take out its nuclear weapons capability, and you curtail what critics say is Tehrans malign influence throughout the Middle East. Air strikes might persuade the countries which fear Iran that they do not need their own nuclear arsenals. A military strike might hasten the end of the Mullah’ s theocracy.

Don’t attack Iran, and the theory goes, Tehran gets the bomb, dominates the Middle East, sparks a regional nuclear arms race, and possibly attacks Israel..

Those opposing military action point out that it might not work, and at best would only delay the nuclear project. The retaliation by Iran would be enormous. It can reach out into the world via its military proxies, Hamas, and Hizbollah. It’s own conventional weapons can reach Israel. The Gulf would likely be closed to ships causing the oil price to double and ensuring a global recession. Those against an attack argue that air strikes would actually make the Iranians close ranks around their leaders, thus strengthening the regime.

The Iranians have just finished ten days of military exercises in the Gulf. Every ship which sailed, every mine laid, and every missile launched, was meant to convey the same message. It is a message which defines Iranian foreign policy as it looks westward. It is a maxim in Tehran that ‘If the Gulf is not safe for Iran, it is not safe for anyone’.

The war games were to show the world that Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes 20% of the world’s oil needs. The Strait, leading from the Gulf out to open waters is just 34 miles across at its narrowest point.

With the Iranians practising their ‘we can sink American ships and oil tankers’ routine, the US decided to sail the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier group through the Strait.

Today the head of Iran’s army said ‘We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Persian Gulf,” Brigadier General Ataollah Salehi added – “We don’t have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once’

So, if the Stennis decides it wants to go to the US 5th fleet’s base in Bahrain, what does it do? Well it simply sails straight back through the Strait. If not, President Obama makes America look weak in an election year. If the Stennis does return, that gives the Iranians a choice; to take ‘action’ or to back down. ‘Action’ could take various forms, it doesn’t have to be an attack on the carrier fleet, but it would have to be something provocative.

Both sides are playing with fire, in a dangerous place, at a dangerous time.

IDF: 8,000 rockets, missiles could hit Israel … JPost – Defense.

    Israel is likely to come under fire from 8,000 rockets and missiles if a war breaks out in the coming year, according to updated IDF intelligence. Regarding the capabilities in the hands of it enemies, according to the assessment, it is possible that hundreds Israelis would be killed in such a war.

Based on these assessments and the growing arsenals of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, a war in 2017 would likely include the firing of 15,000 rockets and missiles into Israeli cities, causing greater devastation and more casualties. The IDF believes that most of the rockets will be short-range and another 5,500 will have a range over 70 km.

“The arsenals that surround us are increasing in their quality, quantity as well as in their accuracy,” a senior IDF officer said on Tuesday. For example, the officer said, by 2017 the IDF believes that Syria, Hezbollah and Iran will have close to a thousand rockets with accuracy of a few dozen meters.

The revelation regarding the missile threat to the Israeli home-front comes as the IDF continues to negotiate with the government regarding the defense budget for 2012. The IDF had initially planned to implement a new multi-year plan for the years 2010-2017, but put those plans on hold after the government decided to cut the defense budget in wake of the past summer’s social protest.

According to the IDF, under the NIS 50 billion budget proposed by the government the IDF is still missing close to NIS 7 billion needed for training its forces, procuring new capabilities and adequately countering the growing threats in the region. Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Yair Naveh recently appeared before the government and proposed that the IDF receive NIS 5 billion and find within its budget the remaining NIS 2 billion. Naveh warned the government that if the money is not allocated, the IDF will not be able to procure new missile defense systems such as the Iron dome for short-range rockets, David’s Sling for medium-range rockets, and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 for long-range ballistic missiles.

The IDF assessed that it will require around a dozen Iron Dome missile defense batteries to protect Israel from the short-range missile threat along its borders. The gap in the budget, according to the IDF, stems from the government’s refusal in recent years to compensate it for the increase in the costs of living within Israel, such as the rising expenses of gas and food.

According to the Brodet Commission, which studied the defense budget five years ago, the IDF is supposed to receive compensation for these costs. The Brodet Commission’s recommendations were approved by the government at the time. One of the recommendations capped the amount the IDF would pay in property tax at NIS 320 million. The Treasury has refused to implement that recommendation and today the IDF is paying over NIS 700 million.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

(Bluster, or brinkmanship? – JW)

DEBKAfile Special Report January 3, 2012, 12:49 PM (GMT+02:00)

USS Stennis near Strait of Hormuz

In another heated escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran Tuesday, Jan. 3, threatened to take action if the US aircraft carrier which “moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill returns to the Persian Gulf.” Army chief Lt. Gen. Ataolla Salehi said:” Iran will not repeat this warning.”
He referred to the USS Stennis as “the enemy’s carrier,” which “I recommend and emphasize… not return to the Persian Gulf.” He avoided naming the US vessel or the details of action Iran might take if it returned.
debkafile‘s military sources report that the Stennis transited the Strait of Hormus Wednesday, Dec. 28 and entered the Sea of Oman where Iran was staging a naval drill. Washington was demonstrating freedom of navigation in the international strait through which one-fifth of the worlds exported oil is shipped and underlining Iran’s inability to close it to merchant shipping and US warships.
Iran said that its surveillance aircraft and warships tracked and filmed the US carrier’s movements in and around Hormuz which it claims to fully control.

Saturday, Dec. 31, Iran announced a long-range missile test-fire would take place over the strait, thereby causing a five-hour stoppage of shipping traffic. Later, an Iranian general said the missile test was delayed. debkafile‘s Iranian and military sources reported that this was a trick to prove Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of strong warnings from Washington.

Monday, Jan. 2, the Iranian navy marked the last day of its Hormuz drill by testing shore-to-sea Qader and Nour missiles. The Qader is described by the Iranians as a cruise missile capable of destroying large American air carriers with a single hit.
Tuesday, this claim proved to be the prologue in advance of Iran’s virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz against the return of the USS Stennis into the Persian Gulf and appropriation of its “right” to open and close the waterway at will.

It is hard to see the Obama administration caving in to Tehran’s ultimate challenge to the freedom of this vital international waterway. The Stennis or some other American naval vessel must soon be sent through the Strait of Hormuz to test Iran’s assumption of control.
Gen. Salehi said: “We are not seeking to act irrationally, but are ready to confront any threat.” Another Iranian commander said that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are preparing another military exercise in the Persian Gulf. He did not offer a date.

Our military sources add that two more American warships, the USS Bataan and USS Makin Island, are cruising in the area. They are small Marine Corps amphibian craft carrying jets and helicopters. The big air craft carrier USS Carl Vinson, deployed in the Pacific from the

Iran threatens U.S. Navy as sanctions hit economy | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Iran threatened on Tuesday to take action if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf, Tehran’s most aggressive statement yet after weeks of sabre-rattling as new U.S. and EU financial sanctions take a toll on its economy.

The prospect of sanctions targeting the oil sector in a serious way for the first time has hit Iran’s rial currency, which has fallen by 40 percent against the dollar in the past month.

Queues formed at banks and some currency exchange offices shut their doors as Iranians scrambled to buy dollars to protect their savings from the currency’s fall.

Army chief Ataollah Saleh said the United States had moved an aircraft carrier out of the Gulf from because of Iran’s naval exercises, and Iran would take action if the ship returned.

It did not name the carrier, but the USS John C Stennis leads a task force in the region, and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet website pictured it in the Arabian Sea last week.

“Iran will not repeat its warning … the enemy’s carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasise to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,” army chief Salehi said.

“I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once.”

Lieutenant Rebecca Rebarich, spokeswoman for the U.S. 5th Fleet based in Bahrain, said she was not immediately able to respond.

Tehran’s threat comes at a time when sanctions are having an unprecedented impact on its economy, and the country faces political uncertainty with an election in March, its first since a 2009 vote that triggered countrywide demonstrations.

The West has imposed the increasingly tight sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran says is strictly peaceful but Western countries believe aims to build an atomic bomb.

After years of sanctions that had little impact, the latest measures are the first that could have a serious effect on Iran’s oil trade, 60 percent of its economy.

New sanctions signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama on New Year’s Eve would cut off any financial institutions that work with Iran’s central bank from the U.S. financial system, blocking the main path for payments for Iranian oil.

The EU is expected to impose new sanctions by the end of this month, possibly including a ban on oil imports.

Even Iran’s top trading partner China – which has refused to back new global sanctions against Iran – is demanding discounts to buy Iranian oil as Tehran’s options narrow. Beijing has cut its imports of Iranian crude by more than half for January and, paying premiums for crude from Russia and Vietnam to replace it.

THREATS

Iran has responded to the tighter measures with increasingly belligerent rhetoric.

It spooked oil markets briefly when it announced last month it could prevent shipping through the Straight of Hormuz – a narrow shipping lane through which flows 40 percent of the world’s oil trade – if sanctions hurt its own oil business.

It then held 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf, test firing long range missiles that could hit Israel or U.S. bases in the Middle East. But Tuesday’s apparent threat to take action against the U.S. military for sailing in international waters takes the aggressive rhetoric to a new level.

The new U.S. sanctions law, if implemented fully, would make it impossible for many refineries to pay Iran for crude. It imposes measures gradually and allows Obama to offer temporary waivers to prevent an oil price shock.

The European Union is expected to consider new measures by the end of this month, possibly including a blockade. EU members such as such as crisis-hit Greece are still buyers of Iranian oil, which trades at a discount.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Paris wants new measures taken by January 30, when EU foreign ministers meet.

“France … wants sanctions toughened and the president (Nicolas Sarkozy) has made two concrete proposals on that front – the first being the freezing of Iranian central bank assets, a tough measure, and the second an embargo on Iranian oil exports,” Juppe told i>tele, a French TV channel.

Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, said member states would discuss the issue this week in the hope of reaching an agreement on new steps before the January 30 meeting.

“The ball is still in the Iranians’ court,” he said.

Although China, India and other countries are unlikely to sign up to any oil embargo, they will be able to insist on deeper discounts, potentially reducing the income Tehran receives from oil.

Beijing has been driving a hard bargain. China, which bought 11 percent of its oil from Iran during the first 11 months of last year, has cut its January purchase by about 285,000 barrels per day, more than half of the close to 550,000 bpd that it bought through a 2011 contract.

The impact of falling government income from oil sales can be felt on the streets in Iran in soaring prices for state subsidised goods and a falling rial currency.

Some exchange offices in Tehran, when contacted by Reuters, said there was no trading taking place until further notice.

“The rate is changing every second … We are not taking in any rials to change to dollars or any other foreign currency,” said Hamid Bakshi in central Tehran.

Housewife Zohreh Ghobadi, waiting in a long line at a bank, said she was trying to withdraw her savings and change it into dollars.

Iranian authorities played down any link between the souring exchange rate and the imposition of the new sanctions.

“The new American sanctions have not materialised yet,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a news conference on Tuesday. “It will take a few months until these sanctions are fully implemented.”

The economic impact is being felt ahead of a nationwide parliamentary election on March 2, the first vote since a disputed 2009 presidential election that led to the worst unrest since Iran’s 1979 revolution.

(Additional reporting by Hashem Kalantari in Tehran, Humeyra Pamuk in Dubai, Brian Love in Paris and Florence Tan in Singapore; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Giles Elgood)

Commentary: Preparing for a Nuclear Iran | The National Interest.

Iran’s new show of force as stand-off with U.S. grinds forward – CNN Security Clearance – CNN.com Blogs.

By CNN’s Charley Keyes

Note to American diplomats: An old Iranian saying may carry a message for a new year.

“There’s on old Persian expression that when you have a wildcat trapped in a room, you need to leave a door open to let it out,” Carnegie Endowment analyst Karim Sadjadpour said.

The New Year has dawned with new saber-rattling from Iranian leaders, new displays of its military hardware and new claims of progress in its nuclear program. All this comes amidst new frustration in the United States about how to tighten the screws on the Iranian economy.

With the U.S. and allies working to isolate Iran’s Central Bank and to impose additional restrictions on various high-ranking individuals and institutions, exits are slamming shut.

“The question is: What is the way out for the Iranian regime?” Sadjadpour said. “Can the Obama administration allow the Iranian regime a diplomatic way out in order for it to save face?”

And Iran must plot its course of whether to submit to pressure or resist.

“The strategy of the Obama administration is to try to exact enough pressure on Iran to try to get it to make meaningful nuclear compromises,” Sadjadpour said. “The question is whether outside pressure will compel Iran to compromise on its nuclear program or go for a nuclear bomb in order to fend off nuclear pressure.”

Iran has been testing missiles in recent days during naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that its long range Qadar sea-to-shore missile and surface Nour hit their targets.

The state news agency said the missiles and tests of torpedoes are fresh evidence that Iran could halt any movement in that major oil supply route for the West, prompting the French Foreign Ministry to call the weapons tests a very bad signal to the international community.

David Albright, a longtime observer of Iranian claims about its nuclear accomplishments, said the announcement was the expected follow-though on one Iran made a couple of years ago. He called it an effort to “restore credibility, to show they have the technology now.”

Iran has maintained that its nuclear development is for peaceful civilian purposes, prompting deep skepticism from the U.S. and others. Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, says that the fuel rods for the research reactor have nothing to do with Iran’s weapons program and that it will take a year or two to see whether they work properly.

Iran has been cutting corners to make progress in its nuclear enrichment program, says Albright, and any shortcuts raise safety questions, especially with the research reactor located in highly populated Tehran.

The rhetoric, especially the threat to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the fuel rod development and new weapons tests, have raised the temperature in the early hours of 2012.

But Iranian experts say that despite showing off its missiles, Iran’s defense budget is less than 2% of the U.S’s. And its top-of-the-line missiles still lack the accuracy found in much of the rest of the world.

Sadjadpour says the main focus should not be on hardware but Iran’s ambitions. And the U.S. must remember that with all it has invested – politically and financially – in its nuclear program, Iran will hesitate to abandon it.

For their part, U.S. politicians point to Iran’s support for terrorist activities by Hamas and Hezbollah, and Iran’s opposition to Israel. And in recent months there has been increasing talk that if diplomacy fails, either Israel or the United States might launch a military attack on Iran to at least delay its development of a nuclear bomb.

“My own take is that in 2012, what we can best hope for is that outside pressure and outside diplomacy will avert both a nuclear-armed Iran and a bomb on Iran.” Sadjadpour said. “But there is a concern that the hardliners in Tehran will try to provoke some type of military attack on themselves for domestic political expediency. And that is trap that the United States and Israel should be careful about walking into.”

CNN’s Pam Benson contributed to this story

Iran warns U.S. carrier not to return to Gulf; France says EU must agree sanctions.

Al Arabiya

Tuesday, 03 January 2012

Iran’s army chief told the United States that a U.S. aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises should not return to the Gulf. (File photo)

inShare2

Iran’s army chief told the United States that a U.S. aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises should not return to the Gulf, the state news agency reported on Tuesday as France called on Europe to agree the sanctions against Iran this month.

“Iran will not repeat its warning … the enemy’s carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,” Ataollah Salehi told IRNA.

“I advise, recommend and warn them (the Americans) over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once,” Fars quoted Salehi as saying.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said his country wants its European partners to agree by the end of January on sanctions against Iran. (Reuters)

Meanwhile, France wants its European partners to agree by end-January on sanctions on Iran similar to those envisaged by the United, States, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said on Tuesday as Russia said that Iran has no long-range missiles.

“France … wants sanctions toughened and the president (Nicolas Sarkozy) has made two concrete proposals on that front — the first being the freezing of Iranian central bank assets, a tough measure, and the second an embargo on Iranian oil exports,” Juppe told i>tele, a French news TV channel.

“Iran is pursuing the development of its nuclear arms, I have no doubt about it. The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency is quite explicit on this point,” he said.

Washington is already in the process of imposing such sanctions, he said. “We want the Europeans to take a similar step by Jan. 30 to show our determination,” he said, according to Reuters.

Iran, which denies Western accusations that it is trying to build atomic bombs, said on Monday that it had test fired two long-range missiles, flexing its military muscle in the face of mounting Western pressure over its nuclear program.

It made the announcement at the climax of 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf, during which Tehran warned it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world’s traded oil is shipped, if sanctions were imposed on its crude exports.

EU foreign ministers are due to meet on Jan. 30.

Meanwhile, a Russian defense official said Tuesday that Iran has no long-range missiles, according to AFP.

It was Moscow’s first response to the series of tests conducted by Tehran near the vital Strait of Hormuz oil supply route.

“Iran does not have the technology to create intermediate or long-range inter-continental ballistic missiles,” defense ministry spokesman Vadim Koval told the Interfax news agency.

“And it will not get such missiles any time soon,” he added.

Russia has relatively close ties with Iran and built its first nuclear power station in the southern city of Bushehr. Moscow has also delivered the nuclear fuel for the reactor.

Moscow has echoed Western concerns about the nature of the Iranian nuclear program but has stopped short of publicly accusing Tehran of seeking atomic weapons and always said that the standoff should be solved by diplomacy.