WarSclerotic

Photo by: Courtesy

By HERB KEINON 
06/26/2011 20:28

Following US sanctions on Ofer Brothers for shipping ties with Islamic Republic, cabinet introduces new measures “that will place Israel at the international forefront regarding the imposition of sanctions on Iran.”

  Just weeks after the late Israeli shipping tycoon Sami Ofer was implicated by the US State Department for shipping ties with Iran, the cabinet on Sunday decided Sunday to expand the economic sanctions against Iran.

The State Department’s blacklisting of The Ofer Brothers Group for selling an oil tanker to Iran embarrassed the government, which for years has led calls for stricter international sanctions against Iran.

The cabinet decision, according to a government statement, “includes a series of administrative and regulatory measures that will place Israel at the international forefront regarding the imposition of sanctions on Iran. These steps will be advanced in the coming days by the various relevant ministries.”  Among the sanctions is to restrict state contact with companies that trade with Iran, the statement said.

Work on drawing up these sanctions has reportedly been underway for months, long before the Ofer scandal broke in late May.

A new national directorate will be established to oversee these sanctions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the cabinet that the committee’s recommendations were “an important step in the struggle against Iran’s nuclear program.  These recommendations ensure that Israel will stand alongside other countries at the forefront of sanctions against Iran, in order to cause the Iranian regime to abandon its plans to develop nuclear weapons.”

Gov’t expands economic sanctions … JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Turkish source says top officials in Erdogan government meeting with Turkish military and intelligence officials over possibility of Syrian incursion on Turkish territory; Turkey Foreign Minister tells Syrian counterpart Assad’s forces must retreat from the border.

By Zvi Bar’el

The situation between Syria and Turkey is explosive and could slide into a violent confrontation, a highly-placed Turkish source said yesterday. The source said Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had convened a second meeting over the weekend following an earlier session on Thursday with the heads of the Turkish army, the intelligence service and the foreign ministry to explore possible scenarios involving Syrian military operations on Turkish territory. The concern is that the Syrians would try to hit refugee camps in Turkey that have already taken in 12,000 Syrian civilians.

In contacts with his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moallem, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu underlined the seriousness with which Turkey viewed Syrian military activity on the Turkish border, demanding that Syrian forces retreat from the border. For its part, Syria is accusing Turkey of conspiring with Qatar and France to promote American and other western interests.

	Syrian refugees enter Turkey near the village of Guvecci, earlier this month.
	Photo by: Reuters

Syrian news website ChamPress, which is close to the regime, yesterday cited a report on Hezbollah’s Al-Manar website claiming that Erdogan himself helped former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri remain in office in 2008, demanding that Syrian President Bashar Assad not try to depose Hariri, saying the Americans wanted him to remain in power.

Citing Iranian sources, the Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reported yesterday that Iran had warned Turkey not to allow NATO forces to use Turkish territory to attack Syria, saying if Turkish territory was permitted, Iran would attack American and NATO basis in Turkey.

As the Syrian crisis sowed tension in the region, demonstrations continued yesterday in Syria itself – including the Kurdish cities of Kamishli and Al-Haska, as well as Homs, Hama, Daraa – involving tens of thousands of protesters. In Damascus, the army forcefully dispersed hundreds of demonstrators. Friday saw at least 18 protesters killed around the country.

Turkey is concerned that the Syrian army might exercise force in Kurdish towns in Syria, sparking a mass flight of Kurds into Turkey. Syrian media outlets, meanwhile, are reporting that the army has deployed troops around the restive city of Jisr al-Shughour.

Despite government declarations that the army has taken control and that the situation should shortly settle down, opposition websites have reported that the army has begun using emergency supplies and other strategic reserves. Other reports speak of a splintering in the ranks of the first army division north of Damascus, but there is no sign of major rebellion in the military.

The Syrian regime is benefiting from the disorganization of the Syrian opposition over its aims and whether it has the power to bring down Assad’s regime. An initial meeting is planned tomorrow in Damascus among Syrian intellectuals and overseas opposition figures, who were allowed into Syria to find a formula that might calm the situation.

Among expected opposition demands is the formation of a 100-person council to represent the entire spectrum of political thought, including the ruling Baath party, but without the participation of government representatives.

Report: Hezbollah moves missiles from Syria to Lebanon, fearing fall of Assad regime – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has used trucks to move hundreds of long-range Iranian-produced missiles from Syria to bases in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Le Figaro reports.

By Barak Ravid

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has moved hundreds of missiles from storage sites in Syria to bases in eastern Lebanon, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported on Saturday.

According to the report, Hezbollah moved the missiles due to the concern that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad will fall and that a new Syrian government will cut off ties with Hezbollah.

	Hezbollah fighters preparing to launch Katyusha rockets.
	Photo by: AP

The report quoted a “Western expert” as saying that intelligence agencies have monitored the movement of trucks from the Syrian border to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The trucks contained long-range Iranian-produced Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles.

Hezbollah had been storing these missiles in depots in Syria. Some of the depots are secured by Hezbollah personnel while others are located on Syrian military bases.

According to the report, the movement of the missiles has been problematic, particularly due to concerns that Israel and other nations are monitoring the trucks with spy satellites.

“Hezbollah is afraid that Israel will bomb the convoys,” the Le Figaro report said.

The report added that Hezbollah has moved the missiles using means of camouflage more sophisticated than it has used before.

The report also noted that Syrian intelligence and the Al-Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recently established a joint operations room at the international airport in Damascus. This step was taken as a result of the lessons learned when an Iranian arms plane was caught in Turkey in March.

According to the report, the plane which was on its way from Iran to Syria was forced to land in Turkey after information on the plane was passed from American intelligence to Turkey. A search of the plane uncovered missiles, mortars and many other types of weaponry.

Abdülhamit Bilici: Turkey’s test with Syria.

Al Arabiya

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Abdülhamit Bilici is a Turkish journalist and editor of the English language daily, Today’s Zaman. (File photo)

Massive energy discoveries complicate relations between Israel and Lebanon. Analysis by Mary E. Stonaker.

Al Arabiya

Friday, 24 June 2011

Both nations’ motivations in the border dispute are now based upon the ability of domestic oil and gas fields to change the fate of future generations. (Illustration By Amarjit Sidhu)

A rapid descent into war is a very real possibility in the Levant unless Israel and Lebanon solve their disputed maritime border issue, and quickly. Weighed down by nearly $50 billion in national debt, Lebanon is eager to claim their share of the Leviathan basin gas and oil discoveries shared with Israel, Syria and Cyprus.

Disputed maritime borders and the fact that Israel and Lebanon are technically still at war after the 2006 ceasefire agreement, forecast a tricky road ahead for all parties involved.

Discoveries in this massive basin, Leviathan, may birth fields in Syrian and Cypriot waters. Leviathan is estimated to contain up to 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and 1.7 billion barrels (bbl) of oil. For perspective, Saudi Arabia holds 238.1 tcf in proven gas reserves and 264.5 bbl in proven oil reserves.

The recent power vacuum in Lebanon ended last week when Prime Minister Najib Miqati announced a new government. Miqati inherited a national debt equal to nearly 150 percent of its GDP.

After the announcement, Israel released a statement hoping that Miqati and the new government would take steps to ensure the 2006 UN Resolution 1701 border agreement would be upheld.

The maritime border, however, was not discussed during UN Resolution 1701 (2006).

In January, the UN rejected Lebanon’s request for assistance in delineating the maritime border as well as preventing Israeli exploration and production (E&P) companies from drilling in would-be Lebanese waters.

The border issue here is two-fold.

First, the Israeli border with Lebanon was declared unilaterally by Israel.

Moreover, Israel is not a signee on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which dictates what constitutes maritime borders.

Even if Israel were a signee, the lack of a stable, mutually-agreed terrestrial border from which to base a maritime border would hinder the enforcement of the Law of the Sea.

Consequently, the contested nature of this maritime border is not under the jurisdiction of the UNIFIL which oversees the terrestrial border between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line. The lack of mechanisms under which to resolve this long-standing issue have merely prolonged the ceasefire rather than witnessed a progression into a mutual state of peace.

The nations currently do not enjoy diplomatic ties.

Both nations’ motivations in the border dispute are now based upon the ability of domestic oil and gas fields to change the fate of future generations. As both nations are pioneering shifts away from oil to natural gas, the following will focus the gas aspect.

In 2008, Lebanon possessed 9 Tcf of proven gas reserves, produced 208 Bcf of gas and consumed 213 Bcf. The differential was offset by its linkages to the Arab Gas Pipeline which originates in Egypt. Lebanon was operationally linked to the AGP (AGP) in 2006.

Despite consuming and producing very little natural gas, Lebanon is currently in the process of converting its power plants to run on natural gas from petroleum-based products. In 2006, Syria promised to supply Lebanon with 1.5 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/day) for 10 years through the Arab Gas Pipeline. However, Syrian shortages of domestic supplies may hamper the fulfillment of that promise.

Israel currently feeds about half of its domestic natural gas consumption, fueling the other half through the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline (a branch of the AGP). With a capacity of 335 mmcf/y, this pipeline stretches 100 kilometres under the Mediterranean to connect Israel to the AGP. The pipeline was constructed and is operated by the East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG).

EMG is a multinational gas company and a joint effort of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) with 68.4 percent of shares, Merhav, an Israeli company with 25 percent and the Ampal-American Israel Corporation with the remaining 6.6 percent of shares.

The associated supply agreement between Egypt and Israel has come under intense scrutiny after former President Hosni Mubarak’s departure from Egypt’s government.

Artificially low prices were achieved by the Egyptian government selling the gas at low prices which then passed along the favor to Israel Electric Company (IEC).

The recent release by Al-Jazeera of the signed contracts will add further pressure to eliminate the corrupt legacy of Mr. Mubarak’s rule in Egypt.

As Israel prepares for potential supply gaps from Egypt, it is also looking into the near future by commencing oil and gas drilling. The recent oil and gas discoveries will not only supply domestic demand, they would allow Israel to become an exporter which would completely change the regional dynamic.

The magnitude of these discoveries and quick Israeli action led to the call for urgent action by Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, according to AFP. This is a follow-up to the exploration and production law passed last August by the parliament to oversee drilling.

These efforts aim not only to counter Israel’s full claims over the fields on the disputed border but also defy the recent Israeli-Cypriot maritime border agreement.

An added sticky issue in this border dispute is the potential for further conflict between Palestine and Israeli. A fully complicated issue itself, the peace process has moved at a snail’s pace, if at all, since Israel’s creation in 1948. However, these energy fields will no doubt add a further dimension to this already multi-faceted state of affairs.

Finally, the security of rigs set up in the Mediterranean waters off Israel and Lebanon must be addressed and will add high costs to this project if companies wish to have on-stream supplies in the coming years. Israel is aiming for 2013.

Sabotage of oil and gas rigs in the Mediterranean would have disastrous environmental and social effects on the region, leaking these destructive mineral resources into the ocean as well as cutting off energy supplies to millions.

It would be dangerous to give anything but the utmost significance to the quick resolution of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. Without that critical foundation, these disputes will lead to violent clashes as nations fight for their future generations’ access to stable and reliable energy supplies.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 25, 2011, 9:04 AM (GMT+02:00)

Turkish soldiers help Syrian refugees at border

After more than a year of strained relations, Turkey has decided to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel as Ankara heads for a military showdown with Syria, according to debkafile‘s exclusive military sources. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also gives Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and a chance to bring Hamas into the process.
The deal was discussed in a telephone conversation that took place between the US president and Turkish prime minister last Tuesday June 21, hours after Assad’s hardnosed speech at Damascus University. The last ends were tied up when Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, visited Ankara secretly last week and met Erdogan and Fidan Hakan, the head of Turkish intelligence MIT.

Obama and Erdogan agreed that Bashar Assad’s reign was over although both their intelligence agencies gave him another four to six months to hang on. To hasten his end, they decided on a two-part campaign: the US and Europe would step up sanctions on Syria and Turkey would raise the military heat.
This decision prompted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to comment for the first time on a possible Turkish-Syrian military clash: “…we’re going to see an escalation of conflict in the area,” she said.

Saturday, June 25, Turkey began setting up a big new camp to accommodate a further influx of 12,000 to 15,000 Syrian refugees at Apaydin 10 kilometers from the border, on the opposite side of which Syria’s crack 4^th Division is massing tanks under the command of Syrian Republican Guard commander Gen. Maher Assad, the president’s brother.
The numbers of refugees continued to swell after soldiers again opened fire on tens of thousands of demonstrators who poured into the streets after Friday prayers, killing at least nineteen.
As Syrian-Turkish military tensions continue to escalate, Ankara saw the necessity of coordinating its air and naval operations with the United States and Israel in case the Syrian ruler responded to a border flare-up by launching surface missiles against Turkish military targets and US bases in Turkey.  Obama urged Erdogan and Hakan to get together with the Israeli minister Yaalon to work things out, a move that would call up the old close strategic bonds between Turkey and Israel before they the rupture over Israel’s 2009 Cast Lead operation against Hamas in Gaza, the Turkish flotilla episode of May 2010 and other incidents.

Calling off Turkey’s critical participation in the next big flotilla scheduled for this month to breaking Israel’s Gaza blockade indicated the ice was melting.

For the sake of opening a new chapter between Jerusalem and Turkey, our sources disclose that Netanyahu gave in to Obama’s request to give Erdogan another chance to promote Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy – this time by bringing Hamas aboard. The Turkish prime minister believes he has a fair chance of altering Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal’s inflexible resistance to recognizing Israel.
After meeting Meshaal’s rival, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, in Ankara Friday, June 24, Erdogan said “Turkey would mobilize support to help the Palestinians achieve recognition and form their own state.”  Abbas replied: “There will be no turning back from the road to reconciliation [with Hamas].”

Abbas and Meshaal were both in the Turkish capital at the same time, although they denied meeting.
Confirmation that the Turkish prime minister had returned to the role of Israel-Palestinian broker, which he resigned in anger after Israel’s Gaza operation in 2009, came from Jerusalem: Thursday, June 23, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told a visiting group of Turkish journalists: “We also accept and respect the fact that Turkey is a regional power with a great historic role.”

As to Ankara’s bid to broker reconciliation between Abbas and Meshaal and get them to sign a power-sharing accord, the Israeli official commented: “It is also in our interests that the Palestinians have unity. We know once they sign, they sign for everybody and we don’t have to worry about this.”

debkafile‘s political sources: Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have obviously recognized that if the price for Israel-Turkish reconciliation and a return strategic collaboration is accepting Hamas’ presence on the Palestinian side of the negotiating table, it is worth paying. They have apparently conceded the long-held principle not to deal with a Palestinian terrorist group dedicated to Israel’s destruction without seeking cabinet endorsement.

At least 15 reported killed in Syria, amon… JPost – Middle East.

  At least 15 people were reported killed in Syria on Friday in protests against President Bashar Assad‘s regime, Al Arabiya said.

Earlier, residents told Reuters that security forces shot dead three protesters in the central Syrian city of Homs, and at least three youths in the main district of Barzeh in Damascus when they fired at a protest demanding the Assad’s overthrow. Other deaths were reported in towns near the capital.

“The ‘amn’ (security police) first used teargas then they started shooting from rooftops when shoutings against Assad continued. Three youths were killed and I saw two bodies shot in the head and the chest,” a resident of Barzeh who gave his name as Hussam said by phone.

“Barzeh has been surrounded by the army and police for days, but protests managed to break out from two mosques. The ‘amn’ are now chasing protesters in alleyways and firing randomly,” he said, with the sound of bullets in the background.

Syrian state television said gunmen fired on security forces, killing three civilians and wounding an officer and several security force personnel in Barzeh.

Thousands take to the streets in latest day of protests

Tens of thousands of Syrian protesters took to the streets on Friday calling for Assad’s overthrow.

“Tell the world Bashar is without legitimacy,” shouted several thousand protesters in the Damascus suburb of Irbin, an eyewitness said, the chants echoing over the phone. Syria has expelled most foreign journalists.

In the central cities of Homs and Hama protesters shouted “the people want the downfall of the regime,” while in Deraa, cradle of the uprising, people waved banners rejecting Assad’s promise in a speech this week to launch a national dialogue.

Protests also erupted in western coastal cities and eastern provinces near Iraq, a day after Syrian troops swept to the northern border with Turkey, prompting another 1,500 refugees to flee across the frontier into camps which Turkish officials say now host more than 11,000 refugees.

Syrian television said on Friday army units were “completing their deployment” in border villages. It said there had been no casualties during the operation and that soldiers were greeted with traditional welcomes of “flowers and rice” by residents.

Assad’s repression of the protests, in which Syrian rights groups say more than 1,300 civilians have been killed, has triggered Western condemnation and a gradual escalation of US and European Union economic sanctions against Syrian leaders.

On Friday the European Union announced extended sanctions against Syria, including against three commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard accused of helping Damascus curb dissent. Syria denies Iran has played any role in tackling the unrest.

DEBKA.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Iran’s Islamic rulers have been blowing hot and cold over the Arab Revolt.
They gravitate between hope, anxiety, disappointment and fear: Hope that the unrest will nullify Western influence and pave the way for strong Islamic regimes in Arab lands; anxiety and disappointment over Sunni Islam’s rising strength and ability to curtail Shiite expansion; fear that the unrest will infect Iran’s masses – and acrobatic sophistry, most of all, for covering their inner contradictions.
Tehran welcomed the uprisings of Tunisia and Egypt and the toppling of their presidents – at first. They acclaimed the upsets as inspired by the Khomeinist revolution which created the Islamic Republic of Iran 32 years ago: Iran had finally exported its revolution to other Muslim countries and was therefore itself immune to the unrest.
But satisfaction gave way to an awkward silence when the dissent spread to its senior ally, Syria. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei then rose the challenge: It was all part of an Israeli-Western plot to harm the Muslim world and Iran, he maintained; nothing at all to do with the Arab Revolt.
But the Iranian public was not fooled by this hypocritical pretext. The ordinary Iranian, having closely followed the progress of Middle East unrest, did not fail to notice that, notwithstanding Tehran’s blustering support for the uprisings in several Arab countries, Iran’s objectives had not been furthered by an inch.
In Bahrain, Iran backed a losing horse
In Bahrain, the Iran-backed Shiite uprising against the throne was squashed by Saudi and Gulf emirates’ military intervention. Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen fomenting the unrest in the guise of protest activists were captured and put on trial and the Hizballah agents imported from Lebanon to engineer the riots were expelled from the island-kingdom.
The whole venture was worse then a flop; it backfired. The spiritual leader of Bahrain’si Shiites, Ayatollah Sheikh Issa Ahmad Qassem, denounced Iranian interference in the kingdom after Khamenei called on Bahraini dissidents not to give up until the throne was overturned.
Iran’s bitterness over the debacle was exacerbated by the sight of the Sunni King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sitting firmly on the throne and restoring order in the kingdom.
An Iranian effort to round up thousands of Iranian “volunteers” for a protest flotilla to Bahrain also fell flat. Several members of the Majlis want “Iran’s foreign policy failures” to be investigated in reference to Bahrain. Although the issue appears frequently on parliament’s agenda, no debate has ever taken place.
This may be because the two leading factions of the regime are at odds on how Tehran should handle the Arab uprisings: Followers of the Spiritual Leader believe Iran can still hope for pickings and save Assad from the fury of his people, whereas President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad‘s circle believes the Arab Revolt is a lost cause for Tehran with nothing to offer but trouble.
Egypt withdraws from its brief flirtation with Iran
The latter view gained support from the cold shoulder Egypt’s post-Mubarak rulers have shown Tehran in response to feelers for putting relations on a new, amicable footing. Those feelers have drawn no positive feedback from Cairo. After meeting Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi in Bali, Indonesia on May 26, his Egyptian opposite number Nabil al-Arabi spoke of opening a new page in relations.
But nothing came of it.
More recently, 45 Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition activists visited Tehran at Iran’s invitation. The entire gallery of Iranian leaders, including the president, turned out to greet them. But instead of providing a platform for strengthening ties, the visit was mired in a fierce argument between certain guests and hosts over the right path to the future.
Iranian leaders even tried material lures – to no avail. Although it imports wheat for its own use, Iran offered Egypt a huge quantity at 10 percent below the world price. Also promised were 400,000 Iranian tourist visits to help stimulate the flagging Egyptian economy. Every Iranian would spend $5,000, so netting $2 billion in revenue for the Egyptian treasury.
This of course was an empty promise because it is more than the average Iranian wage.
In any case, Cairo is still not inclined to play the friendship game with Tehran.
Turkey makes hay from Iran’s unpopularity in Syria
The unrest in Syria is a double blow to the Iranian leadership.
Not only is their most valuable ally and main arms supply route to Hizballah in Lebanon in peril, but Turkey is using Syria to bolster its regional stature by attacking Bashar Assad and so buying his people’s sympathy. Alongside the popularity afforded Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the disaffected Syrian masses are burning Iranian and Hizballah flags.
It has not been lost on the Iranian public that the military planes which carry security personnel, ammunition and crowd dispersal gear from Tehran to Damascus at least twice a day, to keep Assad’s crackdown afloat, return home with the coffins of Iranians slain in stormy Syrian demonstrations.
The bazaar rumor mills naturally inflate the figures of Iranian dead in Syria. But whatever the numbers, they contribute to the heavy sense of national defeat prevailing in Iran – a mood that tends to undermine support for the Iranian regime.

DEBKA.

Barack Obama and Tayyip Erdogan

Dissatisfied with the Arab Revolts’ regime change score of two to four at the first half-year mark, US President Barack Obama is grimly determined to beat the rulers of Libya and Syria and send them packing – however long it takes. To overcome the formidable obstacles that keep on cropping up in the path of his plans to rearrange the Middle East, he has recruited Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan as his partner in pursuance of what the US president considers not just a policy but the fulfillment of his Middle East mission and vision.
Although on the face of it, he is treading in the footsteps of his predecessor, George W. Bush, who fought for regime change in Baghdad and Kabul, Obama’s partnership with Erdogan represents an epic departure from US Middle East policy-making of the past 60 years: For the first time since the 1950s, Washington has eschewed the superpower prerogative of independent decision-making and roped in a regional collaborator for a joint effort.
(See DEBKA-Net-Weekly 490 of April 29 – A US-Turkey Axis Overrides the Arab Revolt – Obama Builds Strategic Understandings with Erdogan).
Erdogan’s election victory this month lent the partnership gravitas although his parliamentary support declined.
The division of labor between Washington and Ankara, as confirmed in a phone conversation between Obama and Erdogan Tuesday, June 21 is summed up by DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Washington and Ankara as follows:
Give diplomacy a chance first
The diplomatic option: The US and Turkish leaders agreed the deadly spiral in Syria and Libya could not be allowed to go on and both Bashar Assad and Muammar Qaddafi must go.
Diplomacy would first be given a real chance to negotiate terms for them to quit voluntarily. In search of accommodations acceptable to all sides, Washington would take on the Libyan ruler in Tripoli and the rebels in Benghazi – assisted by Germany, which opposed the NATO operation against Qaddafi, and Ankara would engage Assad in Damascus and the protest leaders in Syrian cities.
Turkey would also pitch in as broker in the Libyan conflict, calling in Persian Gulf emirates for help if necessary.
Only if diplomatic engagement failed over a reasonable period of time would Washington and Ankara turn to the military option.
The military option – Libya: Washington would then step in to bring the Libyan war to a quick end – and not only to save Europe and NATO from the ignominy of a lingering standoff against Qaddafi. Obama believes that the Libyan ruler’s success combined with an impasse in President Assad’s fight against dissent would stop the entire Arab Revolt project in its tracks and possibly kill it for good.
To keep the military option afloat, Obama this week ordered the buildup of US naval, air and marine forces in the central Mediterranean to continue. The American fleet, led by the USS George H. W. Bush aircraft carrier, was joined by two Marine strike units on the decks of the USS Bataan and USS Whidbey Island.
The US will handle Qaddafi’s exit, leave Assad to Turkey
But then, Wednesday, June 22, just twenty four hours after Obama and Erdogan ended their phone conversation, their plan of action was thrown off-track by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi‘s shock demand to halt hostilities in Libya immediately to allow humanitarian aid to reach civilians in Misratah and Tripoli.
Since Italy provides the bases as well as the command and logistical centers for most of NATO’s air operations in Libya, its withdrawal is a major setback for the entire Libyan campaign. Its future role in US-Turkish planning therefore remains to be reformulated.
The Military Option – Syria: Part two of the US-Turkish strategy provides for both to resort to military action to oust the Libyan and Syrian leaders if they refuse to quit – with one big difference: US intervention would dispose of Qaddafi briskly, while Bashar Assad would be eased out when the time was right by means of a Turkish military incursion backed by US naval and air support and NATO ground forces based in Izmir.
In the intervening months, the two leaders agreed to ratchet up diplomatic pressure on the Assad regime and impose more sanctions.
Obama and Erdogan may have to retool some of these decisions and timetables in the light of the spanner Berlusconi has thrown into their plans.
Israel-Palestinian talks carried over to second Obama term
Israel-Palestinian talks postponed: The third decision the US president and Turkish prime minister reached earlier this week, DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Washington reveal, was to carry this peace process over to Obama’s second term. In other words, he is taking a long break from this intractable dispute until November 2012 at earliest, by which time he will know whether he has been reelected or not.
This decision was surprising. It was taken after US Special Envoy for Middle East Peace David Hale and Special Assistant to the President Dennis Ross returned from Jerusalem, Ramallah and Amman with the glad tidings that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas were now amenable to restarting the stalled negotiations.
Obama congratulated the two envoys and instructed them to go ahead with preparing a three-way summit for the ceremonial launch of talks – which would then be held in abeyance. The Turkish prime minister would then take over.
This decision was the upshot of two further agreements reached between President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan:
1. Washington would leave Erdogan a clear field to try his hand as middleman between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Abbas. He would also explore the ground for bringing the two leaders together with Hamas’s political secretary Khaled Meshaal.
It was no accident that Abbas and Meshaal both arrived in Ankara on the same day, Wednesday, June 22 – although Abbas flatly denied he knew about the Hamas leader’s arrival in Turkey or had any plans to meet him Their rendezvous in Cairo a day earlier was cancelled.
Erdogan’s jobs: to mend fences with Israel, co-opt Saudis to his mission
2. The Turkish prime minister undertook to patch up his quarrel with Israel. Relations broke down in May 2010 after Israeli commandos raided a Turkish vessel leading a flotilla aiming to bust Israel’s blockade of Gaza and killed nine Turkish citizens. Now, Erdogan has promised to try and restore the strong military, strategic and intelligence bonds which bound Turkey and Israel for decades prior to the flotilla crisis.
Seen from the White House, this dramatic breakthrough to reconstituting the old alliance – if it can be achieved – would give America the vehicle for recovering positions of influence in the Middle East knocked over by the Arab Revolt. A US-Turkish-Israel bloc would also be a powerful lever for reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace track under the US aegis after Obama’s return to the White House for a second term. Thursday, June 23, Erdogan received a personal envoy from Netanyahu, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, in Ankara.
Another important item of business was the decision for the Turkish prime minister to turn to Saudi Arabia and the GCC oil emirates for maximum cooperation in his diplomatic missions in the Middle East.
It is hoped in the White House that Erdogan will be able to soften some of the hard edges of Saudi-US relations and at the end of the road, by assuming his favorite position as mediator, act as bridge between the important Saudi-led Sunni Arab alliance and Washington.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources refer to the transformation of Ankara’s role before and after the Arab Revolt –from aspiring US corridor to Tehran to mediator between Washington and the Arab rulers of the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
Erdogan may find his work cut out to achieve this last mission. Neither he nor the US president can be sure that Saudi King Abdullah and his fellow Gulf rulers will play along.

DEBKA.

The uprisings sweeping the Arab countries have set up a wave of uncertainty in such globally sensitive areas as the nuclear arms race and the oil industries. The volatility is rippling into unforeseen corners. The diplomats, the generals and the intelligence agencies are all constantly kept guessing about where the havoc will erupt next.
Here are three examples:
Is oil again behind the secret US and Italian talks with Qaddafi?
The Obama administration has not only embarked on secret talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai revealed on Saturday, June 18 and US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed the next day. Washington is also secretly engaged with representatives of Muammar Qaddafi.
Hence the bolt from the blue shot from Rome Wednesday June 22 when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had his foreign minister, Franco Frattini, suddenly demand a halt to NATO’s war actions in Libya for humanitarian aid to reach distressed Libyans, especially in the Misrata and Tripoli areas.
Realizing the US-Qaddafi talks had reached an advanced stage Prime Minister Berlusconi decided not to be left behind. Therefore, he resolved One – to get Italy out of the Libyan war, and Two – to give NATO fair notice to get used to operating without Italian air bases in its air campaign against Qaddafi.
If they don’t get the message, Rome will give the allies a deadline for the use of its bases and, implicitly, for ending the Libyan war.
By easing out of the conflict, Italy is helping along its own peace track with the Libyan ruler, opened as soon as Italian intelligence dropped the penny in Rome that the US and the Libyan ruler were talking.
Berlusconi is counting on his personal friendship with Qaddafi which goes back to 1998. Then he stood out as the only Western leader willing to apologize for a colonial regime and the misery it caused – in this case Italy’s occupation of Libya. Qaddafi still respects the Italian prime minister for that.
Berlusconi is determined not to let the Americans beat him to a deal with Qaddafi and leave Italy stumbling in the sands of Libya with Britain and France. He also hopes to beat American oil companies and win contracts for Italian oil and gas firms to rebuild Libyan oil fields.
The Italian prime minister is meanwhile not burning any bridges: If his talks with Muammar Qaddafi run aground, he will forget his threat to block Italian bases to NATO. If they go well, the coalition will have to find alternative bases for the British and French warplanes bombing Libya – not a simple matter. But Berlusconi hasn’t forgotten that when they went to war in Libya three months ago, Britain and France’s main objective was to gain control of Libyan oil.
Saudi Arabia is perfectly willing to cripple Iran’s oil-based economy
On Wednesday, June 8, Prince Turki al-Faisal, who recently took over from his ailing brother, Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, as Saudi royal spokesman, told a private gathering of American and British servicemen at the RAF’s Molesworth airbase outside London that since the US and Western Europe were not prepared to enforce an oil embargo “with teeth” against Iran, Saudi Arabia would do so.
This, he said, would cripple Iran because half of its revenues derive from oil exports.
But the oil markets would not suffer; Saudi Arabia could easily make up any Iranian export shortfalls caused by sanctions or other measures for stopping its momentum for a nuclear bomb.
To put this in perspective, Saudi Arabia is known to have so much spare production capacity—nearly 4 million barrels per day—that it could replace all of Iran’s oil output on the instant.
The Saudi prince also left his audience in no doubt that if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, so will Saudi Arabia. The Riyadh government, he said, is also prepared to apply military muscle to blocking the further expansion of Iranian influence in the Middle East or Muslim world.
Prince Turki’s listeners believed him when he assured them that in pursuit of those goals, Saudi Arabia would not think twice about attacking Iranian targets in the Persian Gulf and inside the country.
Note: DEBKA-Net-Weekly has reported on these Saudi policies at length since March. (See issues 488, 489 and 495).
The main burden of his remarks was that Saudi rulers are no longer standing about waiting for the United States or West Europe to end its involvement in support of the Arab Revolt and turn to Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources add that Turki was also concerned to dispel the impression disseminated by the Obama administration that its involvement in the Arab unrest is somehow coordinated with Riyadh.
This is far from the case.
Our Washington sources report that the Obama administration took notice of Turki’s comments and is preparing measures for making up for any Iranian shortfalls and so pre-empt Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis may also strike Syria’s oil resources
Western intelligence agencies have been busily engaged since Monday, June 20, picking apart the 7,365 words Syrian President Bashar Assad poured out in his address to the Syrian nation from the University of Damascus.
They counted the number of times he said “conspiracy” or “conspirators”, “terrorists,” “fundamentalist extremists,” and “smuggled weapons.” After comparing the text with his last two speeches in the three months of unrest against his regime, they came to the conclusion that the Syrian ruler knows he is in deep trouble and is worried.
President Barack Obama‘s special assistant Dennis Ross told an audience of Israeli and Jewish (mostly American) leaders in Jerusalem this week that the Obama administration is planning to impose very tough sanctions on Syria – some even harsher than those targeting Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s sources in Washington report the administration has concluded that Assad still has enough money to keep his military and security crackdown on protest running for another three months, i.e., up until the end of September.
At this point there is no sign that the Obama administration intends to clamp down an embargo on Syrian oil exports, which accounts for only a tiny percentage of the world oil market. By selling just 150,000 barrels a day, Damascus nets $7 million a day in revenue.
Although the numbers are quite small, Assad still desperately needs this income to keep his regime alive.
The Saudis tried to persuade the Americans that it was a simple matter for them to block Syrian oil exports and so exert real pressure on the Assad regime and curtail his brutal crackdown on dissent.
But they soon despaired of the Obama administration’s policy of restraint on Syria, just as they have given up on American sanctions on Iran.
But that may not be the end of the story: The Syrian oil fields are situated in the eastern Dir al-Azur region whose population is predominantly Shamar tribesmen who wander between Iraq, Syria and Jordan.
Some knowledgeable Middle East intelligence circles say it is only a question of time before the Syrian oil fields and installations are sabotaged by armed groups funded and equipped by Saudi intelligence.