WarSclerotic

IAEA receives more evidence Iran… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

  VIENNA – The UN atomic watchdog has received further information regarding activities that “seem to point to the existence” of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program, the agency’s head said on Monday.

“There are indications that certain of these activities may have continued until recently,” Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in a speech to the agency’s 35-nation governing board.

Amano’s statement underlined the UN body’s concern that the Islamic Republic may be working to develop a nuclear-armed missile. Tehran rejects such suspicions, saying its nuclear program has only civilian aims, mainly generating electricity.

Amano did not disclose the source of the new information.

For several years, the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating Iran had coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives at high altitude and revamp a ballistic missile cone so it can take a nuclear warhead.

Amano said he had written last month to the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, “reiterating the agency’s concerns about the existence of possible military dimensions.”

He had also asked for Iran to “provide prompt access” to locations, equipment, documentation and officials to help clarify the agency’s queries.

Amano made clear that Iran’s response had not been satisfactory, saying he had sent a new letter to Abbasi-Davani on June 3 “in which I reiterated the agency’s requests to Iran.”

Syria takes the hot seat as UN atomic watchdog looks into alleged illicit nuclear work.

Al Arabiya

Monday, 06 June 2011

The UN atomic watchdog opens a week-long meeting , with the US and its western allies looking to pass a resolution against Syria

The UN atomic energy watchdog opens a weeklong meeting in Vienna Monday, with the United States and its Western allies looking to pass a resolution against Syria over its alleged illicit nuclear activity.

The traditional June session of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-member board of governors has a heavy agenda, ranging from the upcoming two-year budget to the nuclear disaster in Japan.

But it will once again be the long-running investigations into illicit nuclear programs in both Iran and Syria that will be the main focus of attention.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has received further information regarding activities that “seem to point to the existence” of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program, the agency’s head said on Monday.

“There are indications that certain of these activities may have continued until recently,” Yukiya Amano said in a speech to the agency’s board.

However while Iran has tended to be the dominant issue at board meetings in the past, Syria looks set to take the hot seat this time round after Mr. Amano stated unequivocally for the first time his conviction that a remote desert site that was flattened by Israeli bombs in September 2007 was “very likely” to have been an undeclared covert nuclear reactor.

The IAEA has been investigating the allegations for three years now, but Syria has so far refused to allow UN inspectors access to locations, data or individuals who could throw some light on the matter.

Damascus has always insisted that the site, known as Dair Alzour, was a non-nuclear military installation but it has provided no evidence so far to back this up.

Aside from a one-off visit in June 2008, Syria has refused to allow IAEA inspectors access.

Mr. Amano defended his decision to go public with his recent assessment that Syria had been building an undeclared nuclear reactor at the remote desert site.

“The Syrian government was given ample time by the agency to cooperate fully concerning the Dair Alzour site, but did not do so,” Mr. Amano said at the closed-door meeting.

“Nevertheless, we had obtained enough information to draw a conclusion. I judged it appropriate to inform member states of our conclusion at this stage as it was in no one’s interest to let this situation drag on indefinitely,” Mr. Amano said, according to a copy of his speech released to journalists.

“I am confident about our conclusion and I look forward to engaging further with Syria to resolve related outstanding issues,” Mr. Amano said.

Mr. Amano’s unprecedented remarks are aimed at turning up the heat on Syria, which is increasingly frustrating the IAEA with its point-blank refusal to cooperate.

The United States, in particular, has seized on his comments as an opportunity to find Syria in “non-compliance” with its international obligations and refer it to the UN Security Council in New York.

Western diplomats believe there is sufficient support on the 35-member board for the resolution to be passed, although it would be “naive” to expect it to be carried unanimously, a number of them said.

A corresponding resolution looks certain to win western backing, but diplomats believe it would “naive” to expect unanimous support from the 35-member board.

Iran, too, will be in the spotlight after Amano, in his latest report, complained that the Islamic republic is continuing to stockpile low-enriched uranium, in defiance of multiple UN sanctions, and refusing to answer allegations of possible military dimensions to its contested nuclear program.

Iran responded at the end of last month, but diplomats who said they have seen the six-page reply said it contained nothing substantively new and, in the view of one diplomat, only confirmed that Tehran is “unwilling to change course from its policy of non-cooperation.”

(Sara Ghasemilee, a senior editor at Al Arabiya English, can be reached at sara.ghasemilee@mbc.net)

150 killed, dozens injured by Syrian security forces, activists say.

Al Arabiya

Monday, 06 June 2011

A Syrian protester shows a painted sign that reads “Go Out” on her palm during a demonstration against President Bashar Al Assad in front of the Syrian embassy in Amman. (File Photo)

At least 150 people have been killed by the Syrian security forces since Friday, Syrian activist Razan Zaytouna told Al Arabiya on Monday.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights had said on Sunday that at least 35 civilians and 10 soldiers and police have been killed since Saturday in a military operation in and around a northwestern Syrian town, according to Reuters.

Protests against President Bashar Al Assad have grown despite reform gestures dismissed by the opposition and a continuing crackdown that has killed at least 1,100 people since the uprising erupted two months ago.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad decreed a general amnesty for political prisoners. (File photo)

Residents said the killings in northwestern Jisr Al Shughour began when snipers on the roof of the main post office fired at a funeral for six protesters killed during a demonstration on Friday.

Angry mourners set fire to the post office after the shooting, said one Jisr Al Shughour resident, a history teacher who gave his name only as Ahmed.

According to the official news agency, “armed terrorist groups” killed four police, attacked public buildings including the post office and “spread terror in the heart of citizens who called on the authorities to intervene forcefully to protect them.”

Authorities have prevented most international media from operating in Syria, making it impossible to verify accounts of the violence.

In the eastern city of Deir Al Zor, the center of an oil producing area, residents said security forces killed four protesters after mourners set ablaze two buildings belonging to President Assad’s Baath Party, which has ruled Syria since it seized power in 1963.

Residents said they saw two people with hunting rifles fire back at security forces.

Overnight, forces had fired at thousands of protesters in the city and wounded scores as they tried to reach a square to topple a statue of late President Hafez al-Assad, Mr. Bashar’s father.

“The crowd reached President’s Square when it was met by … bullets from the security police and armored cars that had deployed there to prevent the ‘sanam’ (false deity) from being toppled,” a witness told Reuters, referring to the 6-meter stone statue of the man who ruled the 23-million-people nation with an iron fist for 30 years.

Night-time demonstrations have been held daily across Syria to circumvent the heavy security presence, though protests reach a peak after Friday midday prayers.

The killings have been eroding support among the country’s majority Sunni population for Mr. Assad, who is from the minority Alawite sect.

Human rights campaigners say security forces shot dead at least 70 protesters in the city of Hama on Friday.

But central neighborhoods in Damascus and most of Syria’s second city Aleppo have remained largely quiet as authorities tighten security in the two cities and many wealthy business families worry about instability.

The crackdown has raised Western pressure on President Assad, 47, who has tried to strengthen his regional clout by reaffirming an alliance with Iran and backing militant groups, while responding to Western offers of better ties.

The official state news agency said the prime minister has ordered the formation of a committee to draft a law that would allow “patriotic political parties,” but it did not say whether the proposed law would permit opposition to the government.

In the tribal region of Deir Al Zor, where most of Syria’s 380,000 barrels per day of oil is produced, another resident said protesters were enraged over the killing of Mouath Al Rakkad, a 14-year-old boy who was shot dead on Friday during a demonstration against Assad’s rule.

He said demonstrators had been trying for a week to reach the big Hafez Al Assad statue.

“All the other busts and statues of Hafez I know of had been toppled,” said the resident, a doctor who practices in the city.

Human rights groups say security forces, troops and gunmen loyal to Mr. Assad have killed at least 1,100 people in attacks on protesters and in military assaults and sieges of cities to try to crush street demonstrations since they erupted in southern Syria in March.

Syrian authorities say “armed terrorist groups,” backed by Islamists and foreign powers, are behind the killings, which have included over 120 soldiers and police.

In one of the bloodiest attacks on protesters, security forces killed at least 70 people in Hama on Friday, and there were reports that more bodies had been taken by security forces and dumped in a public park on Sunday, rights campaigners said.

“The protest was like a big party. Whole families were marching. Women were carrying flowers and chanting for liberty and to bring down the regime of thugs,” said one witness, a veterinarian who lives in Hama.

The crackdown in Hama has particular resonance. Forces led by Hafez Al Assad’s brother Rifaat killed between 10,000 and 30,000 people there when they put down an armed uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood in 1982.

Turkey, once a close ally of Assad, has warned him against “a repetition of Hama.” The United States and the European Union have imposed direct sanctions on the Syrian president.

(Abeer Tayel, a senior editor at Al Arabiya English, can be reached at: abeer.tayel@mbc.net)

Asia Times Online :: Is an attack on Iran in the works?.

By Victor Kotsev

TEL AVIV – In contrast to, say, a year ago, few analysts now dare to consider a military strike on Iran in the near future as a serious possibility. On the contrary, most are dismissive of the idea, especially in as much as Israel is concerned. “One of the great bluffs in the foreign policy community in the previous decade was that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities unless Washington stepped up and took military action first,” writes Trita Parsi in Foreign Policy, offering a lucid analysis to explain why such an option is not feasible. [1]

Yet, despite all the good arguments, the Iranian front is becoming more complicated every week and month. Israel is by far not the only foreign threat to the ayatollahs, and its silence and apparent weaknesses can be misleading, as the past 44 years (since the 1967 war) have taught. It is seldom safe to call what may appear

to be an Israeli bluff.

The advice of a prominent military historian stands out in this respect. Two years ago, during a period of heightened Israeli rhetoric against the Islamic Republic, I asked him privately for his opinion. He responded: “What seems to be different this time is all the [Israeli] public arm-waving in advance of any action. Usually they act first, as they did recently [in 2007 against an alleged nuclear reactor] in Syria, and say very little afterward. This inclines me to believe that there is more rhetoric than reality here.”

In the past month or so, there has been some important debate in Israeli political and media circles about a strike on the Islamic Republic, but as a whole, it has been remarkably muted compared to the bluster of, say, a year ago. Back then, Jeffrey Goldberg, among others, stirred the spirits by predicting that “there is a better than 50% chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July”. He drew that conclusion on the basis of his discussions with Israeli politicians and defense officials. [2]

In the past few months, ostensibly in the wake of the Arab Spring, discussion of a war with Iran has been relegated to the back-burner. The logic of waiting to see what happens prevailed, and more pressing problems, such as Egypt’s instability and the Palestinian intention to declare statehood this year, took the center-stage in Israel. Splits on the Iranian issue became increasingly visible inside the Israeli establishment, and even some politicians previously seen as hawks, such as the influential Defense Minister Ehud Barak, softened their rhetoric.

It is worth noting, however, that Goldberg’s deadline has not yet passed, and could even be stretched due to unpredictable circumstances such as the Arab Spring. The most important red flag since the beginning of the year came in the form of an emphatic warning issued a month ago by Mossad’s legendary former chief Meir Dagan, who said that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was “the stupidest thing I have ever heard”. He later added, “If anyone seriously considers [a strike] he needs to understand that he’s dragging Israel into a regional war that it would not know how to get out of. The security challenge would become unbearable.” [3]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also alluded to the possibility of striking Iran, for example in his speech before the US Congress last month. “When I last stood here, I spoke of the consequences of Iran developing nuclear weapons,” he said. “Now time is running out. The hinge of history may soon turn, for the greatest danger of all could soon be upon us: a militant Islamic regime armed with nuclear weapons.” Subsequently, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of strategic affairs, Moshe Ya’alon, said that “the civilized world” must take action against Iran, including military action “if necessary”.

As mentioned above, heating up the rhetoric could mean a delay in any Israeli timeline for an actual strike. At present, discussion is muted, but it could escalate any moment. It could also subside, perhaps in anticipation of a strike. It is important to watch the warning signs.

Israeli analyst Amir Oren argues that “between the end of June and [US Defense Secretary Robert] Gates’ retirement, and the end of September and [chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike] Mullen’s retirement, the danger that Netanyahu and Barak will aim at a surprise in Iran is especially great, especially since this would divert attention from the Palestinian issue.” [4] Right now, Oren’s arguments and his conclusion appear speculative, but it is important to watch the Palestinian-Israeli sub-plot, among others.

Even speculation about an imminent prisoner swap deal for the release of captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit [5] can be interpreted to point to a danger of conflagration. In the past, Israeli analysts have speculated that the government would try very hard to free Shalit before any attack on Iran, because a regional war could mean that a deal is put off indefinitely.

It is important to mention that a couple of months ago, Israel released detailed maps of Hezbollah bunkers in South Lebanon , in what was widely seen as a warning to the militant organization to stay out of any confrontation with the Jewish state [6]. Hezbollah is widely perceived as a fundamental part of Iran’s deterrent against Israel.

Both Dagan’s comments, the release of (perhaps outdated) Hezbollah maps, and the Shalit negotiations serve their own complex goals; they do not necessarily come in genuine anticipation of a strike on Iran. Taken together, they raise significant questions, but these can also be interpreted in different ways.

It could be, for example, that Israel is preparing for the eventuality of somebody else’s attack on the Islamic Republic and the repercussions that would almost inevitably reach it. Dagan could also be warning against Israeli involvement with a strike rather than the possibility of unilateral action.

From a more global perspective, tensions involving Iran are clearly at a high, even though the known facts fail to implicate convincingly the Jewish state. A source close to Russia reports that the Kremlin has started to pull out significant numbers of nuclear technicians and other specialists from the Islamic Republic; if confirmed, this information could mean that Russia anticipates a military campaign in the near future.

The same source speculates that a military operation against Iran could be seen as a necessity in order to suppress the Arab Spring, or to further the interests of the alleged counter-revolution. “A hit against a big country could do the job,” he says.

Some analysts have applied a similar logic to the campaign against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, but the Libyan debacle has clearly not done the job. Moreover, the now increasingly possible ouster of Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh could rekindle the protests throughout the Arab world. As a prominent figure in the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood told Reuters, “The departure of Saleh is a turning point not just for the Yemeni revolution but also is a huge push for the current changes in the Arab region and is the start of the real victory.”

Necessarily, this shifts the focus of the discussion to the fabled maestro of the counter-revolution, Saudi Arabia. Much has been made of the Saudi Arabian foreign legion and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s militancy. In an extensive analysis for Asia Times Online, Brian Downing discusses the recruitment of Sunni former Pakistani and Iraqi soldiers for the Saudi private army. [7]

Saudi Arabia’s bitter feud with Iran is long-known, as is the “cut off the head of the snake” comment that Saudi Arabian King Abdullah made to American officials a few years ago. [8] It is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia is militarily prepared for an imminent attack on Iran, and a full-blown private war involving Pakistan seems much to speculative to be discussed in detail, but in this part of the world, it is good to expect the unexpected.

Moreover, it is equally hard to imagine that, should hostilities break out, the United States would be able to stay out of the fray for long. The reality is that its dependence on Saudi oil is simply too high.

It does not help that the Iranian nuclear crisis is deepening. Despite assurances by Iran’s nuclear envoy Ali Ashgar Soltanieh that building a nuclear weapon would be a “strategic mistake”, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued warnings last month that one of its seals in the “feed and withdrawal area” of the Natanz enrichment plant was broken. This would mean, according to experts, that Iran is trying to conceal how much enriched uranium it has on stock. Last month, the IAEA also accused Iran of hacking into its inspectors’ computers and cell phones during visits to the facilities. [9]

Moreover, the Arab Spring has clearly failed the expectations of some observers, including Israeli experts, that it could spread to Iran and topple the regime. The internal rifts in the Islamic Republic have only deepened recently, but this may actually make the nuclear stand-off more entrenched. According to a recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security:

Much has been made in the media about the power struggle between Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – with the backing of the Iranian parliament (Majlis) – and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. The struggle may make less likely the prospect that Iran will be able (if it is indeed willing at all) to negotiate a diplomatic deal over the nuclear crisis in the near future, though it may still be willing to meet with the P5+1 [Five permanent members of the United Nations Security Councils plus Germany]. Iran has thus far been unwilling to suspend its enrichment program as called for by the United Nations Security Council or answer questions about its past work on nuclear weapons … [S]ince the Supreme Leader has shown a willingness to publicly and forcefully assert his authority over Ahmadinejad, and appears unwilling to negotiate an end to the nuclear issue, any deal is unlikely. This could make any meetings with the P5+1 simply an empty exercise on Iran’s end. [10]

In brief, while there are many good reasons why a war with Iran is unlikely at the moment, dark clouds are quietly gathering, and in the Middle East, appearances could be misleading. Both the Iranian and the anti-Iranian camps are arming and preparing themselves militarily, and in military science as in theater, Anton Chekhov’s maximum often applies that a gun in the first act is bound to go off at some point later.

Rhetoric, in fact, is often inversely proportional to the probability of action. Summer is the time to watch, both because it has historically been the season of war in the Middle East, and because according to most experts, this summer Iran will likely reach the nuclear point of no-return. So will, in all likelihood, the Arab revolutions.

Notes
1. Freeing Israel from its Iran bluff, Foreign Policy, 11 May 2011.
2. The Point of No Return, The Atlantic, 11 August 2010.
3. Israel won’t withstand war in wake of strike on Iran, ex-Mossad chief says, Ha’aretz, 1 June 2011.
4. Obama’s new security staff may approve attack on Iran, Ha’aretz, 1 June 2011.
5. Egypt’s Tantawi, Barak discuss Shalit deal , ynetnews 5 June 2011.
6. Israeli military maps Hezbollah bunkers, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/Israeli-military-information-on-Hezbollah.html, The Washington Post, 30 March 2011 7. Pakistan marches to Saudi tune, Asia Times Online, 2 June 2011.
8. “Cut off head of snake” Saudis told U.S. on Iran, Reuters, 29 November 2010.
9. Iran may have hacked computers of UN nuclear inspectors, report says, Ha’aretz, 18 May 2011.
10. The Iranian Power Struggle and its Implications for the Nuclear Crisis, ISIS, 2 June 2011.

Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

Researcher: Iran can produce nuke within 2 months – Israel News, Ynetnews.

(If this report is accurate, the world either lives with a nuclear Iran or their program will be taken out through the use of an EMP bomb. – JW)

Airstrikes can no longer stop nuclear program, US can do nothing short of military occupation, says report

Yitzhak Benhorin

The Iranian regime is closer than ever before to creating a nuclear bomb, according to RAND Corporation researcher Gregory S. Jones.

At its current rate of uranium enrichment, Tehran could have enough for its first bomb within eight weeks, Jones said in a report published this week.

He added that despite reports of setbacks in its nuclear program, the Iranian regime is steadily progressing towards a bomb. Unfortunately, Jones says, there is nothing the US can do to stop Tehran, short of military occupation.

The researcher based his report on recent findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published two weeks ago. Making the bomb will take around two months, he says, because constructing a nuclear warhead is a complicated step in the process.

Jones stresses that stopping Iran will require deploying forces on the ground, because airstrikes are no longer sufficient. The reality is that the US and Israel have failed to keep Iran from developing a nuclear warhead whenever it wants, Jones says.

It’s time to recognize that this policy has failed and decide on the following steps, based on realistic assessment of Iranian uranium-enrichment efforts, he adds.

According to Jones, Tehran has produced 38.3 kg of uranium enriched at 19.7%. If its centrifuges continue to work at the current capacity, it will take around two months for the Iranian regime to produce the 20 kg of uranium enriched to 90% required for the production of a nuclear warhead.

Barak: Dagan jeopardized Israeli deterrence ag… JPost – Defense.

(While it is possible that the former head of the Mossad who spent a lifetime defending Israel’s security would make statements that endanger it, I am much more drawn to the conclusion that this is an elaborate disinformation campaign designed to conceal Israel’s true intentions regarding Iran. – JW)

  Defense Minister Ehud Barak criticized former Mossad chief Meir Dagan saying his recommendation against attacking Iran was a serious offense, and could likely jeopardize Israel‘s deterrence capabilities, Army Radio reported Monday.

According to Barak, several options for action against Iran remain open, and Israel’s discretion on the matter is key in maintaining optimum deterrence.

The defense minister did tell Israel Radio, however, that Israel has made no decision to strike Iran or any of its nuclear reactors.

While Barak criticized Dagan’s behavior, other parties have demanded that legal action be taken against the former Mossad head, saying his comment that an Israeli attack on Iran won’t stop its nuclear march classified as a serious national security breach.

In Sunday’s cabinet meeting Science and Technology Minister Daniel Herschkowitz demanding that Dagan stand trial.

The government watchdog Ometz went a step further Sunday, sending a letter to Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein with a request that he launch an investigation to determine whether Dagan’s statements constituted a violation of the Penal Law.

According to Ometz, Dagan is suspected of having violated article 113 – aggravated espionage, article 117 – disclosure in breach of duty, article 118 – disclosure in breach of contract, article 119 – disclosure in breach of trust and article 496 – disclosure of a professional secret.

Ron Friedman contributed to this report.

IDF prepared for renewal of activity on Syrian… JPost – Defense.

  The IDF continued its increased presence along the border with Syria on Monday as some 100 demonstrators continued to linger at both Kuneitra and Majdal Shams following repeated attempts to infiltrate the border on Sunday as part of Naksa Day protests, Army Radio reported.

While the protesters were not attempting to cross the border on Monday morning, the IDF remained prepared for a renewal of activity.
Syria’s health minister claimed 23 activists were killed, and 350 were wounded, in the clashes to commemorate the Palestinian “Naksa,” or “setback” in Six Day War on Sunday, although the numbers could not be verified. The IDF rejected the reports of 23 deaths as “exaggerated,” Army Radio reported on Monday.

An IDF official said that it was clear the Syrian government gave the green light for the protesters to move toward the border, and contrasted this with the situation on Sunday in Lebanon, where the border was quiet.

“One can only suppose that there was a decision taken in Syria to exploit the situation to change the subject from what is going on inside Syria,” the official said. The official also asked whether the Palestinians feel comfortable “being used as a propaganda tool by an authoritative government butchering its own people.”

On Sunday, protesters massed at the border without interference from Syrian troops, in what the IDF described as a provocation by President Basher Assad that was designed to distract world attention away from the ongoing slaughter of protesters in Syria by Assad’s troops.

The Reform Syria opposition website said on Sunday that the “Naksa” protesters were poor farmers who were paid $1,000 by the Syrian regime to come to the border. The source also claimed that Syria has promised $10,000 to the families of anyone killed.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu set the guidelines on how to deal with the protests, telling the cabinet that “there are extremist elements around us who are trying to break through our borders and threaten our community and our citizens. We will not allow them to do so.

“I’ve instructed the security forces to act with determination, with maximum restraint – but with determination to maintain our sovereignty, our borders, our communities and our citizens,” he said.

Yaakov Lappin and Herb Keinon contributed to this report