WarSclerotic

‘Warning to Assad: Attack us, we’ll hit yo… JPost – Middle East.

  Israel sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad in recent days, warning him that if he started a war with the Jewish state in order to divert attention from domestic problems, Israel will target him personally, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Tuesday.

According to the report, the personal warning was sent through Turkey following intelligence reports of unusual Syrian troop movements, including the moving of long-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel.

The report added that the IDF has increased its preparedness on the northern border out of fear that Hezbollah may attempt to stage another kidnapping of soldiers or civilians along the Lebanese border.

Last month, following deadly attempts to breach Syria’s border with Israel, US-based Syria experts accused the Assad regime of being behind the Naksa Day protests on the Israeli border in order to distract from the prolonged uprising challenging Syria’s rulers.

“It’s almost a cliché – this is what he always does. He’s under pressure at home, so he deflects attention,” Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said. During the 2006 Second Lebanon War, “it was by rallying the people around resistance to Israel, and this time it’s with the Palestinian cause. This is not going to work.

Government sources on various continents also accused Assad of at least enabling, if not spurring the deadly protests that turned into the most volatile clashes on the Golan border since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Mullah missile madness–Amir Taheri – NYPOST.com.

Iranian regime gets cockier

Convinced that President Obama is preparing the United States for a strategic retreat, the leaders of Iran’s Khomeinist regime have put their latest military hardware on show in support of their claim of domination in the Middle East.

In a four-day “firepower show” that started Sunday, the Revolutionary Guard — a parallel army — is simulating attacks on US bases and warships in the Persian Gulf. Code-named Great Prophet, the exercises have unveiled a new generation of medium-range missiles designed to hit Israel as well as US military assets in Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman.

getty

Firepower show: A Zelzal (Earthquake) missile launching during yesterday’s Great Prophet military exercises by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

The new weapons belong to the family of Shahab and Sejjil missiles developed with the help of North Korean, Chinese and Russian technology. The first generation of these missiles had a range of 75 miles. The new generation, just unveiled, has a range of 1,200 miles.

“The Zionist regime is within [750 miles] distance from us,” Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC aerospace project, told the official news agency IRNA. “Thus, we are able to hit it [Israel] from deep within our own territory.”

Hajizadeh mocked the United States as “an empire in decline,” adding that it is Iran and not “an outside power” that must ensure the region’s security.

“The Americans have facilitated our task by building bases in surrounding countries,” Hajizadeh said. “Their bases are placed between [75 and 430 miles] from our missiles. We could hit all of them from many different directions.”

Attending the Great Prophet show were military delegations from 18 countries, including North Korea, China, Russia and Brazil.

Part of the exercises consisted of Iranian-made drones shooting down “attacking American” warplanes. According to Hajizadeh, the Russian “guests” were allowed to inspect and examine the drones and the aircraft they’d shot down over the Persian Gulf.

“We only regard the US and Israel as strategic enemies and do not feel threatened by any other country,” Hajizadeh said. “Thus, we have no need for longer-range missiles, although we have the technology to develop them.”

He also claimed that European nations need not worry about being attacked by Iran. “We do not regard the Europeans as enemies,” he said.

Broadcast live on Iran’s Arabic-language satellite-TV networks, the Great Prophet show is part of a broader propaganda effort by Tehran to advance the regime’s claim to being the new “regional superpower.”

The message being beamed to Arabs is simple: America is in retreat and can no longer pretend to protect its Middle East allies; the only power that can provide protection is the Islamic Republic. The Americans will go away, but the Iranians will always be there.

Tehran is especially anxious to prevent the emergence of a new alliance of democratic Arab countries to challenge the Khomeinist regime’s regional ambitions.

It is also trying to drive a wedge between Washington and its European allies before entering the next round of negotiations about its nuclear program. Here, too, the message is that, to protect their interests, the Europeans will have to reckon with Iran as the leading power in the Middle East.

The publicity given the Russian and Chinese military “guests” is designed to show that Moscow and Beijing already acknowledge Tehran as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, marking the beginning of the end for Washington’s traditional position in the region.

The current tone of Tehran shows that the Islamic Republic leadership no longer worries about a possible US or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Those fears peaked in 2008, then declined sharply with Obama’s election. Now the possibility of an Israeli attack is all but ruled out, while chances of an American strike are deemed only “a theoretical configuration.”

Iran fires 14 missiles in 2nd day of war games | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards tested 14 missiles on Tuesday, the second day of war games intended a show of strength to the Islamic Republic’s enemies in Israel and Washington.

The Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles, with a maximum range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), were fired simultaneously at a single target, the official IRNA news agency reported

The head of the Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace division emphasised Iran’s preparedness to strike Israel and U.S. interests in the event of any attack on Iran.

“The range of our missiles has been designed based on American bases in the region as well as the Zionist regime,” Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh told the semi-official Fars news agency.

Washington and Israel have said they do not rule out military strikes on Iran if diplomatic means fail to stop it developing nuclear weapons. Tehran denies its nuclear programme is aimed at building bombs.

IRNA said the Guards fired nine Zelzal missiles, two Shahab-1s, two Shahab-2s and one upgraded Shahab-3 missile. Iranian officials have previously announced that the Shahab 3 can reach targets up to 2,000 km away, putting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf within reach.

A long-time enemy of the United States, Iran has been emboldened by what it sees as U.S. military defeats in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan. Both countries are still home to large troop numbers and Washington has other bases in the Gulf that Iran could choose to target.

“The Americans have reduced our labours,” Hajizadeh told Fars. “Their military bases in the region are in a range of 130, 250 and maximum 700 km in Afghanistan which we can hit with these missiles.”

The ‘Great Prophet 6’ war games, to be carried out on land and sea, are a “message of peace and friendship to countries of the region,” Hajizadeh said on Monday.

Asked whether Iranian missiles were a threat to Europe, Hajizadeh told IRNA that while Iran had the technological capacity to build longer-range missiles, the 2,000-km range had been chosen precisely with Israel and U.S. bases in mind.

“Except American and the Zionist regime, we do not feel a threat from any other country,” he said.

(Reporting by Hossein Jaseb; Writing by Robin Pomero

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 27, 2011, 9:56 PM (GMT+02:00)

USS Enterprise and USS Bush cross paths in Bab al Mandeb Straits.

Iran’s big Great Prophet Mohammad War Games 6 was launched Monday, June 27, ahead of a Turkish operation against Syria’s Assad regime which is anticipated by its military and Revolutionary Guards chiefs.  debkafile reports Tehran expected the Turkish army to have US air and naval support in case of Iranian reprisals against them both. On Day One of the exercise, Iran unveiled its first underground missile silo immune to air strikes. It held what looked like a Shahab-3 ballistic missile.
Israel has responded to Iran’s military exercise and the spiraling regional tension by positioning one of its new Iron Dome rocket interceptor batteries in the northern city of Haifa.

Last week, Iranian warships and submarines deployed in the Red Sea tracked the movements of two big US aircraft carriers, the USS Enterprise and USS George H. W Bush, which crossed each other in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on June 21 heading in opposite directions through this strategic chokepoint between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.
The USS Enterprise, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, was on its way from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, while the USS George H.W. Bush, the US Navy’s newest carrier with the greatest fire power of any of its warships, left the Mediterranean and headed in the opposite direction for the Persian Gulf with a crew of 9,000 and 70 fighter bombers.
On the same day, Iranian naval surveillance picked up the arrival of the Los Angeles-class USS Bremerton nuclear-powered attack submarineoff Bahrain opposite Iran.

Strategists in Tehran see danger in these crisscross movements by US war fleets. According to our military sources, the Enterprise, which is older, slower and has less fire power than the Bush, was moved to the Mediterranean because there it is supported by American air bases scattered across western and central Europe, whereas the Bush was consigned to waters opposite Iranian shores because it is virtually a single-vessel fighting machine capable of operating without support.
The Iranian exercise has two primary objectives:

1. To spread Iran’s ballistic missiles to their maximum operational extent in support of Iran’s signals to Washington and Ankara in the past two weeks warning that an attack on Syria by a US-backed Turkish or NATO force would spark Iranian missile reprisals against Turkish and US military targets on Turkish soil and other parts of the Middle East.

2.  Iran has fanned its fighting forces out across the country, with the densest concentrations on its Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea coasts, ready to repel any American attack that might follow an Iranian missile assault on US, Turkish or allied targets.

The ground-air-naval exercise is scheduled to last 10 days – unusually long for a military drill – so that Iran stands ready for a decision in Washington and/or Ankara to attack Syria.
The announcement of the exercise by Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force commander Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh Sunday, June 26, made Tehran’s intentions clear: He said the exercise was being staged in response to the “growing US military presence in the region” and noted that the missiles practiced would include the Saijil and the Fateh 110.
He did not need to spell out the facts that the Saijil-2 has a range of 2,000 kilometers and can reach any point in the Middle East and further – up to the Black Sea region, for instance, where US air and naval units are posted; or that the improved Fateh 110 has been supplied to Syria and Hizballah for use against Israel.
Iran would expect to be joined by both in any military flare-up.

Iran reveals underground ballist… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

  Iran unveiled underground ballistic missile silos for the first time on Monday in a warning to the world of its ability to protect its missiles and secretly store them in hidden locations throughout the country.

State TV broadcast footage of several military officers touring an underground silo that was holding a Shahab 3 ballistic missile. The missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers, putting Israel within its reach, but is powered by liquid fuel, which means that it requires more considerable preparation immediately before launch than a solid rocket.

The unveiling of underground missile silos was confirmation of Israeli and American warnings in recent years that Iran was dispersing its missiles in silos, likely scattered throughout the country.

In the footage, a missile is shown being launched from inside one of the silos, which has large metal doors that open on the surface with the press of a button.

Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, said the decision to release the video was likely an Iranian attempt to boost its deterrence vis-à-vis Israel and the West.

“The silos look fairly sophisticated and by unveiling them, the Iranians are trying to show the world that their missiles are protected even if the country is attacked,” Inbar said. He added that other countries with missile silos used them strictly for missiles equipped with nuclear warheads and not for conventional ballistic missiles.

The missile silos could also be used to launch Iran’s longrange solid-fuel missile called Sajjil, which is expected to be test-fired by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the 10 days of war games that began on Monday under the name of “Great Prophet 6.”

Brig.-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, was quoted in the Tehran Times as saying that Iran obtained missile silo technology 15 years ago and has since installed them throughout the country.

Iron Dome heads north – Israel News, Ynetnews.

One anti-missile system battery deployed in Haifa as part of testing process. Batteries slated to be installed in various other locations including in Central Israel Hanan Greenberg

Iran official: Bushehr nuclear plant will be operational by end of August – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi says ‘all technical problems have been resolved’ at the plant; Bushehr will be ready for connection to electricity network by end of August.

By DPA

The nuclear power plant of Bushehr in southern Iran was expected to become operational by the end of August, Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said Monday.

“All technical problems have been resolved and the plant would be secure for connection to the national electricity network after the fasting month of Ramadan, or the end of August,” Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency quoted Salehi as saying.

The Russian-built 1,000-megawatt reactor was opened after more than three and a half decades last August and scheduled to go on line before the end of that year, but its launch has been delayed several times.

Due to technical problems, operators in February decided to swap out the facility’s entire fuel core, and finished restoring the fuel in May.

	The reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant is seen, just outside the southern city of Bushehr, Iran.
	Photo by: AP

The delays prompted speculation about the cause of the problems, ranging from the Stuxnet computer worm virus to alleged sabotage by Russia.

Critics in Iran said it would have taken less time to build a new nuclear plant than waiting for the Russians to complete the Bushehr facility.

Deterrent and defense against a nuclear Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

If Iran has nuclear weapons a year from now, Israel still has options for deterrence and defence.

By Louis Rene Beres, John T. Chain

The benefits of the ‘Arab Spring’ – JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

  There are two types of strategic perspectives in Israel today. They aren’t contradictory, but they have different priorities. These can be called the “northern” and the “southern” views.

The “northern” approach is the more traditional one, focusing on the situation in that direction. The key longer-term concern is over Iran and its drive for nuclear weapons. More closely, there are both concerns and hopes regarding Lebanon and Syria.

Regarding Iran, the new feature is the assumption that Israel will not attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons. This means Israel will be constructing a multi-level defensive system that includes long-range attack planes, the ability to subvert Iran’s nuclear force through covert operations, possibly submarine platforms, and several types of anti-missile missiles and defenses.

The goal here is fourfold:
• To delay as long as possible Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and to minimize the size and effectiveness of its arsenal through sanctions, international pressure, sabotage and other means.

• To have the maximum ability to deter Iran from launching a nuclear attack and demonstrating the ability to stop its missiles. The aim is to discourage Iran from launching such an attack, given a nearcertainty that it can be stopped and, as a result, it would suffer very heavy damage.

• Of course, ordinary deterrence is not a sufficient safeguard against Iran, given the Islamic regime’s ideological extremism and passionate hatred of Israel, the recklessness of some key elements there, and the rulers’ shortcomings in assessing reality.

Consequently Israel must put a high priority on stopping any Iranian attack from happening or succeeding.

• To be able, if Israel determines there is a real danger of an Iranian attack, to launch a first strike to inflict maximum damage on Iran’s nuclear strike force. In other words, an Israeli attack would be premised not on Iran getting nuclear weapons, but on Iran being likely to use them.

US deterrence, early-warning, and anti-missile efforts would supplement this system, but this strategy is not premised on any dependence on the US government.

BUT ISRAEL also knows that an equal or even greater danger is the spread of Iranian influence, taking over Arab countries or turning them into proxies. Here, the northern focus is on Syria and Lebanon.

On the surface, the news from these two countries is potentially bad. Lebanon is now controlled by Hezbollah and other Syrian or Syrian-Iranian clients. Hezbollah can thus use Lebanon as a virtual fiefdom for building its military power and attacking Israel. This is much worse than the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war, when Lebanon as a government and army had a separate identity.

Syria itself is faced with a serious internal upheaval that seems likely to bring down President Bashar Assad. Here the “glass halfempty” analysis is that Assad might be replaced by a regime even more hostile to Israel.

There is also a “glass half-full” analysis. As long as Syria is in such turmoil, it cannot so effectively threaten Israel. And if Assad is overthrown, a government that is more preoccupied by internal affairs, and less eager to start a conflict, might take power.

Iraq offers a good model here.

Between the interests of the Kurds, the internal conflict, a greater focus on domestic development and other factors, Iraq has dropped out of the conflict with Israel.

Hezbollah also suffers from this turmoil. Since it has sided with the Assad regime, it has gone from being wildly popular to widely hated by the Syrian people. Hamas, which has sided against the Syrian regime and in favor of its Muslim Brotherhood comrades, has thus lost Syrian patronage. Finally, Syria’s aggressive behavior has opened a rift between that country and Turkey’s government, which has been increasingly acting like an ally of the Iranian and Syrian regimes.

CONSEQUENTLY, WHILE this is no ideal situation, Israel can be considered to have benefitted from this aspect of the “Arab spring.” From Israel’s standpoint, the relative stability in Jordan and Saudi Arabia is a plus, since these countries are unlikely to be transformed into radical Islamist states under a government linked to al-Qaida, Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood. The turmoil in Bahrain, Yemen and Tunisia is of relatively little strategic significance to Israel.

Generally there can be a hope that democracy and domestic development will become a higher priority than fighting Israel, thus easing the pressure on Israel, or at least preoccupying Arabs and Muslims for a while. Clearly, merely calling dissidents Zionist agents and hoping to unite the people around an anti-Israel platform no longer works for incumbent governments.

In time, this strategy might work for replacing Islamist governments, but that hasn’t happened yet.

Moreover, American weakness and the Obama administration’s cooler view toward Israel is worrisome. So is the possibility that things might be moving in a way to strengthen Iran.

IF ONE looks at the southern front, though, it is harder to find a silver lining. Egypt is likely to elect a radical government more hostile than anything Israel has faced there since about 1974. The future of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty is gloomy.

Peace between Israel and the Arab world’s most populous country cannot be taken for granted.

There is also the problem of the Egypt-Hamas relationship. Egypt is likely to see itself as Hamas’s ally and patron. In a future Hamas-led conflict with Israel, Egypt could take the side of the Palestinian Islamists, and will certainly help them. The long-quiet southern front now has to be treated as a very possible war zone.

This is the basic way things look for Israeli strategists.

One can stress better- or worse-case scenarios and different parts of the challenge, but there is a general consensus on the fundamental challenges – and on whether they will be met successfully.

The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center (www.gloriacenter.org) at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya and editor of Middle East Review of International Affairs. He blogs at http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin

Iran to launch military exercise… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

  Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was scheduled to launch a large-scale military exercise entitled the “Great Prophet Mohammad War Games 6” on Monday, Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

Revolutionary Guard Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that the purpose of the drill was to test the IRGC forces defensive preparedness as well as to practice the use of advanced equipment.

Hajizadeh added that Iran’s arsenal of missiles, including the country’s long range missiles, would be tested during the exercise. Among Iran’s arsenal of missiles is the Sajjil, with a range of nearly 2,000 km, which would allow it to strike targets as far away as Israel or southeast Europe.

The Iranian military official emphasized that the purpose of the maneuver was not to threaten Iran’s neighbors, but rather to ensure the Islamic Republic’s defensive capabilities.

Earlier this month, the United States slapped sanctions on the Revolutionary Guard for its part in human rights abuses within Iran.

“The United States stands with all Iranians who wish for a government that respects their human rights, their dignity and their freedom, and we call on the Iranian government to end its systematic human rights abuses and political hypocrisy,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in announcing the sanctions.

Last week, the European Union sanctioned three commanders of the Revolutionary Guard accused of supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad’s suppression of dissent.

The Iranians were Major-General Qasem Soleimani and Brigadier Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari of the Revolutionary Gaurd, and the Guard’s deputy commander for intelligence, Hossein Taeb.

Iran is at loggerheads with major powers over its nuclear work, which it says is peaceful and intended solely for generating electricity but which Washington and its allies fear is aimed at making nuclear bombs.

Israel sees the potential of a nuclear armed Iran — which refuses to recognize the Jewish state and supports Hamas and Hezbollah — as a major threat and both it and its ally Washington do not rule out military action to prevent such a scenario.

Iran has said it would respond to any attack by targeting US interests and Israel.

Hilary Leila Krieger and Reuters contributed to this report