WarSclerotic

Asia Times Online :: Is an attack on Iran in the works?.

By Victor Kotsev

TEL AVIV – In contrast to, say, a year ago, few analysts now dare to consider a military strike on Iran in the near future as a serious possibility. On the contrary, most are dismissive of the idea, especially in as much as Israel is concerned. “One of the great bluffs in the foreign policy community in the previous decade was that Israel would have no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities unless Washington stepped up and took military action first,” writes Trita Parsi in Foreign Policy, offering a lucid analysis to explain why such an option is not feasible. [1]

Yet, despite all the good arguments, the Iranian front is becoming more complicated every week and month. Israel is by far not the only foreign threat to the ayatollahs, and its silence and apparent weaknesses can be misleading, as the past 44 years (since the 1967 war) have taught. It is seldom safe to call what may appear

to be an Israeli bluff.

The advice of a prominent military historian stands out in this respect. Two years ago, during a period of heightened Israeli rhetoric against the Islamic Republic, I asked him privately for his opinion. He responded: “What seems to be different this time is all the [Israeli] public arm-waving in advance of any action. Usually they act first, as they did recently [in 2007 against an alleged nuclear reactor] in Syria, and say very little afterward. This inclines me to believe that there is more rhetoric than reality here.”

In the past month or so, there has been some important debate in Israeli political and media circles about a strike on the Islamic Republic, but as a whole, it has been remarkably muted compared to the bluster of, say, a year ago. Back then, Jeffrey Goldberg, among others, stirred the spirits by predicting that “there is a better than 50% chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July”. He drew that conclusion on the basis of his discussions with Israeli politicians and defense officials. [2]

In the past few months, ostensibly in the wake of the Arab Spring, discussion of a war with Iran has been relegated to the back-burner. The logic of waiting to see what happens prevailed, and more pressing problems, such as Egypt’s instability and the Palestinian intention to declare statehood this year, took the center-stage in Israel. Splits on the Iranian issue became increasingly visible inside the Israeli establishment, and even some politicians previously seen as hawks, such as the influential Defense Minister Ehud Barak, softened their rhetoric.

It is worth noting, however, that Goldberg’s deadline has not yet passed, and could even be stretched due to unpredictable circumstances such as the Arab Spring. The most important red flag since the beginning of the year came in the form of an emphatic warning issued a month ago by Mossad’s legendary former chief Meir Dagan, who said that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities was “the stupidest thing I have ever heard”. He later added, “If anyone seriously considers [a strike] he needs to understand that he’s dragging Israel into a regional war that it would not know how to get out of. The security challenge would become unbearable.” [3]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also alluded to the possibility of striking Iran, for example in his speech before the US Congress last month. “When I last stood here, I spoke of the consequences of Iran developing nuclear weapons,” he said. “Now time is running out. The hinge of history may soon turn, for the greatest danger of all could soon be upon us: a militant Islamic regime armed with nuclear weapons.” Subsequently, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of strategic affairs, Moshe Ya’alon, said that “the civilized world” must take action against Iran, including military action “if necessary”.

As mentioned above, heating up the rhetoric could mean a delay in any Israeli timeline for an actual strike. At present, discussion is muted, but it could escalate any moment. It could also subside, perhaps in anticipation of a strike. It is important to watch the warning signs.

Israeli analyst Amir Oren argues that “between the end of June and [US Defense Secretary Robert] Gates’ retirement, and the end of September and [chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike] Mullen’s retirement, the danger that Netanyahu and Barak will aim at a surprise in Iran is especially great, especially since this would divert attention from the Palestinian issue.” [4] Right now, Oren’s arguments and his conclusion appear speculative, but it is important to watch the Palestinian-Israeli sub-plot, among others.

Even speculation about an imminent prisoner swap deal for the release of captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit [5] can be interpreted to point to a danger of conflagration. In the past, Israeli analysts have speculated that the government would try very hard to free Shalit before any attack on Iran, because a regional war could mean that a deal is put off indefinitely.

It is important to mention that a couple of months ago, Israel released detailed maps of Hezbollah bunkers in South Lebanon , in what was widely seen as a warning to the militant organization to stay out of any confrontation with the Jewish state [6]. Hezbollah is widely perceived as a fundamental part of Iran’s deterrent against Israel.

Both Dagan’s comments, the release of (perhaps outdated) Hezbollah maps, and the Shalit negotiations serve their own complex goals; they do not necessarily come in genuine anticipation of a strike on Iran. Taken together, they raise significant questions, but these can also be interpreted in different ways.

It could be, for example, that Israel is preparing for the eventuality of somebody else’s attack on the Islamic Republic and the repercussions that would almost inevitably reach it. Dagan could also be warning against Israeli involvement with a strike rather than the possibility of unilateral action.

From a more global perspective, tensions involving Iran are clearly at a high, even though the known facts fail to implicate convincingly the Jewish state. A source close to Russia reports that the Kremlin has started to pull out significant numbers of nuclear technicians and other specialists from the Islamic Republic; if confirmed, this information could mean that Russia anticipates a military campaign in the near future.

The same source speculates that a military operation against Iran could be seen as a necessity in order to suppress the Arab Spring, or to further the interests of the alleged counter-revolution. “A hit against a big country could do the job,” he says.

Some analysts have applied a similar logic to the campaign against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, but the Libyan debacle has clearly not done the job. Moreover, the now increasingly possible ouster of Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh could rekindle the protests throughout the Arab world. As a prominent figure in the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood told Reuters, “The departure of Saleh is a turning point not just for the Yemeni revolution but also is a huge push for the current changes in the Arab region and is the start of the real victory.”

Necessarily, this shifts the focus of the discussion to the fabled maestro of the counter-revolution, Saudi Arabia. Much has been made of the Saudi Arabian foreign legion and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s militancy. In an extensive analysis for Asia Times Online, Brian Downing discusses the recruitment of Sunni former Pakistani and Iraqi soldiers for the Saudi private army. [7]

Saudi Arabia’s bitter feud with Iran is long-known, as is the “cut off the head of the snake” comment that Saudi Arabian King Abdullah made to American officials a few years ago. [8] It is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia is militarily prepared for an imminent attack on Iran, and a full-blown private war involving Pakistan seems much to speculative to be discussed in detail, but in this part of the world, it is good to expect the unexpected.

Moreover, it is equally hard to imagine that, should hostilities break out, the United States would be able to stay out of the fray for long. The reality is that its dependence on Saudi oil is simply too high.

It does not help that the Iranian nuclear crisis is deepening. Despite assurances by Iran’s nuclear envoy Ali Ashgar Soltanieh that building a nuclear weapon would be a “strategic mistake”, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued warnings last month that one of its seals in the “feed and withdrawal area” of the Natanz enrichment plant was broken. This would mean, according to experts, that Iran is trying to conceal how much enriched uranium it has on stock. Last month, the IAEA also accused Iran of hacking into its inspectors’ computers and cell phones during visits to the facilities. [9]

Moreover, the Arab Spring has clearly failed the expectations of some observers, including Israeli experts, that it could spread to Iran and topple the regime. The internal rifts in the Islamic Republic have only deepened recently, but this may actually make the nuclear stand-off more entrenched. According to a recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security:

Much has been made in the media about the power struggle between Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – with the backing of the Iranian parliament (Majlis) – and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. The struggle may make less likely the prospect that Iran will be able (if it is indeed willing at all) to negotiate a diplomatic deal over the nuclear crisis in the near future, though it may still be willing to meet with the P5+1 [Five permanent members of the United Nations Security Councils plus Germany]. Iran has thus far been unwilling to suspend its enrichment program as called for by the United Nations Security Council or answer questions about its past work on nuclear weapons … [S]ince the Supreme Leader has shown a willingness to publicly and forcefully assert his authority over Ahmadinejad, and appears unwilling to negotiate an end to the nuclear issue, any deal is unlikely. This could make any meetings with the P5+1 simply an empty exercise on Iran’s end. [10]

In brief, while there are many good reasons why a war with Iran is unlikely at the moment, dark clouds are quietly gathering, and in the Middle East, appearances could be misleading. Both the Iranian and the anti-Iranian camps are arming and preparing themselves militarily, and in military science as in theater, Anton Chekhov’s maximum often applies that a gun in the first act is bound to go off at some point later.

Rhetoric, in fact, is often inversely proportional to the probability of action. Summer is the time to watch, both because it has historically been the season of war in the Middle East, and because according to most experts, this summer Iran will likely reach the nuclear point of no-return. So will, in all likelihood, the Arab revolutions.

Notes
1. Freeing Israel from its Iran bluff, Foreign Policy, 11 May 2011.
2. The Point of No Return, The Atlantic, 11 August 2010.
3. Israel won’t withstand war in wake of strike on Iran, ex-Mossad chief says, Ha’aretz, 1 June 2011.
4. Obama’s new security staff may approve attack on Iran, Ha’aretz, 1 June 2011.
5. Egypt’s Tantawi, Barak discuss Shalit deal , ynetnews 5 June 2011.
6. Israeli military maps Hezbollah bunkers, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/Israeli-military-information-on-Hezbollah.html, The Washington Post, 30 March 2011 7. Pakistan marches to Saudi tune, Asia Times Online, 2 June 2011.
8. “Cut off head of snake” Saudis told U.S. on Iran, Reuters, 29 November 2010.
9. Iran may have hacked computers of UN nuclear inspectors, report says, Ha’aretz, 18 May 2011.
10. The Iranian Power Struggle and its Implications for the Nuclear Crisis, ISIS, 2 June 2011.

Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

Researcher: Iran can produce nuke within 2 months – Israel News, Ynetnews.

(If this report is accurate, the world either lives with a nuclear Iran or their program will be taken out through the use of an EMP bomb. – JW)

Airstrikes can no longer stop nuclear program, US can do nothing short of military occupation, says report

Yitzhak Benhorin

The Iranian regime is closer than ever before to creating a nuclear bomb, according to RAND Corporation researcher Gregory S. Jones.

At its current rate of uranium enrichment, Tehran could have enough for its first bomb within eight weeks, Jones said in a report published this week.

He added that despite reports of setbacks in its nuclear program, the Iranian regime is steadily progressing towards a bomb. Unfortunately, Jones says, there is nothing the US can do to stop Tehran, short of military occupation.

The researcher based his report on recent findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published two weeks ago. Making the bomb will take around two months, he says, because constructing a nuclear warhead is a complicated step in the process.

Jones stresses that stopping Iran will require deploying forces on the ground, because airstrikes are no longer sufficient. The reality is that the US and Israel have failed to keep Iran from developing a nuclear warhead whenever it wants, Jones says.

It’s time to recognize that this policy has failed and decide on the following steps, based on realistic assessment of Iranian uranium-enrichment efforts, he adds.

According to Jones, Tehran has produced 38.3 kg of uranium enriched at 19.7%. If its centrifuges continue to work at the current capacity, it will take around two months for the Iranian regime to produce the 20 kg of uranium enriched to 90% required for the production of a nuclear warhead.

Barak: Dagan jeopardized Israeli deterrence ag… JPost – Defense.

(While it is possible that the former head of the Mossad who spent a lifetime defending Israel’s security would make statements that endanger it, I am much more drawn to the conclusion that this is an elaborate disinformation campaign designed to conceal Israel’s true intentions regarding Iran. – JW)

  Defense Minister Ehud Barak criticized former Mossad chief Meir Dagan saying his recommendation against attacking Iran was a serious offense, and could likely jeopardize Israel‘s deterrence capabilities, Army Radio reported Monday.

According to Barak, several options for action against Iran remain open, and Israel’s discretion on the matter is key in maintaining optimum deterrence.

The defense minister did tell Israel Radio, however, that Israel has made no decision to strike Iran or any of its nuclear reactors.

While Barak criticized Dagan’s behavior, other parties have demanded that legal action be taken against the former Mossad head, saying his comment that an Israeli attack on Iran won’t stop its nuclear march classified as a serious national security breach.

In Sunday’s cabinet meeting Science and Technology Minister Daniel Herschkowitz demanding that Dagan stand trial.

The government watchdog Ometz went a step further Sunday, sending a letter to Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein with a request that he launch an investigation to determine whether Dagan’s statements constituted a violation of the Penal Law.

According to Ometz, Dagan is suspected of having violated article 113 – aggravated espionage, article 117 – disclosure in breach of duty, article 118 – disclosure in breach of contract, article 119 – disclosure in breach of trust and article 496 – disclosure of a professional secret.

Ron Friedman contributed to this report.

IDF prepared for renewal of activity on Syrian… JPost – Defense.

  The IDF continued its increased presence along the border with Syria on Monday as some 100 demonstrators continued to linger at both Kuneitra and Majdal Shams following repeated attempts to infiltrate the border on Sunday as part of Naksa Day protests, Army Radio reported.

While the protesters were not attempting to cross the border on Monday morning, the IDF remained prepared for a renewal of activity.
Syria’s health minister claimed 23 activists were killed, and 350 were wounded, in the clashes to commemorate the Palestinian “Naksa,” or “setback” in Six Day War on Sunday, although the numbers could not be verified. The IDF rejected the reports of 23 deaths as “exaggerated,” Army Radio reported on Monday.

An IDF official said that it was clear the Syrian government gave the green light for the protesters to move toward the border, and contrasted this with the situation on Sunday in Lebanon, where the border was quiet.

“One can only suppose that there was a decision taken in Syria to exploit the situation to change the subject from what is going on inside Syria,” the official said. The official also asked whether the Palestinians feel comfortable “being used as a propaganda tool by an authoritative government butchering its own people.”

On Sunday, protesters massed at the border without interference from Syrian troops, in what the IDF described as a provocation by President Basher Assad that was designed to distract world attention away from the ongoing slaughter of protesters in Syria by Assad’s troops.

The Reform Syria opposition website said on Sunday that the “Naksa” protesters were poor farmers who were paid $1,000 by the Syrian regime to come to the border. The source also claimed that Syria has promised $10,000 to the families of anyone killed.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu set the guidelines on how to deal with the protests, telling the cabinet that “there are extremist elements around us who are trying to break through our borders and threaten our community and our citizens. We will not allow them to do so.

“I’ve instructed the security forces to act with determination, with maximum restraint – but with determination to maintain our sovereignty, our borders, our communities and our citizens,” he said.

Yaakov Lappin and Herb Keinon contributed to this report

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 5, 2011, 7:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Injured in Syrian-Israeli border clashes

Day-long clashes Sunday, June 5, escalated towards evening between Israeli troops ordered to prevent border incursions and hundreds of Syrian-Palestinians throwing rocks and attempting to break through. A mass sit-on the border was threatened after Syrian children were toward the Israeli border and Sunday night, Majd al-Shams youth began stoning Israeli troops from the rear. Israel’s border contingents remained on alert Sunday night for further disturbances from Syria.
Two breaches of the fence occurred during the day at Majd al Shams and Kuneitra on the Golan but the marchers refrained from stepping across into Israel. The breaches occurred during a ceasefire requested by the Red Cross to evacuate wounded.

Later Sunday, many more casualties were reported from a powerful anti-tank mine explosion some 3 kilometers inside Syria. Ambulances were seen heading for Kuneitra hospital.

debkafile reported earlier Sunday:
Israeli troops opened fire during the day when the Syrian advance was not stopped by tear gas, shots in the air, firing aimed at legs and loudspeaker warnings in Arabic that they approached the border on pain of death.

The soldiers used sniper fire against pinpointed targets of individuals trying to damage the fence and two armed men sighted in near the Kuneitra border. The reinforced contingents were ordered to act firmly and with restraint to prevent a recurrence of the mass breaches of Israel’s Syrian, Lebanese, Gaza Strip and West Bank borders on May 15.
The Israel-Syrian fence was repaired and strengthened with coiled razor wire, ditches were dug and signs warning of minefields put up. The IDF declared the entire Golan a closed military zone.

Ahead of Sunday, the Netanyahu government relayed messages to neighboring Arab leaders that Israel would not tolerate any more assaults on its borders.
This latest round of attempted Palestinian incursions was called for June 5 to mark the 44th anniversary of the Arabs armies’ defeat by Israel in the Six-Day War. Syrian TV goaded the demonstrators to sustain their assaults on the Israeli border fence after sending a special crew to cover the event – unlike the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown of dissent against his own regime which is closed to domestic and foreign media. During the day, 28 protesters were shot dead in northwest Syria.

North of Jerusalem, police used rubber bullets, stun grenades and tear gas to push hundreds of stone-throwing rioters back from the Kalandia crossing from the West Bank side.  The Palestinians reported 20 minor injuries.

In Lebanon, the army and UNIFIL combined forces to prevent disturbances near the Israeli border.

‘Ofer ships transferred arms to Israeli forces in Iran’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Britain’s Sunday Times reports that Ofer’s ships were used by commando teams in reconnaissance missions against Iran’s secret nuclear sites, allowing Israelis to reach Iran clandestinely

Ynet

Following the publication of a post on Richard Silverstein’s blog claiming that cargo vessels owned by the Ofer Brothers were used to ferry Mossad agents to Iran, military experts told Britain’s Sunday Times that it is possible that the ships also carried Blackhawk helicopters which were hidden in modified containers.

According to the British paper, the cargo ships that docked in Iran were used by commando teams in reconnaissance missions against Iran’s secret nuclear sites, allowing the Israelis to reach Iran without arousing suspicion.

Sammy Ofer, 89, who passed away over the weekend, will be laid to rest at the Trumpeldor cemetery in Tel Aviv on Sunday.

Ofer’s death came just days after the United States accused his company of breaching sanctions by selling an oil tanker to Iran and aiding in financing Iran’s nuclear program.

A US state department press release stated that the Ofer Group, along with two other shipping companies from Monaco and Singapore were in September 2010 involved in a deal through which they supplied shipping services worth $9 million to Iranian shipping company IRISL.

Last week, Clacalist revealedthat between 2004 and 2010 at least four oil tankers owned by the Ofer Group’s Tanker Pacific Company docked in Iranian ports.

A Clacalist report also revealed that seven of Tanker Pacific’s ships docked in Iranian ports at least eight times at a time when Israel was lobbying fiercely for the US to impose sanctions on trade with Iran.

This at a time when the US said that it would implement severe sanctions against any company that would be found to be in some way involved in trade with Iran, including transport in any way connected with the country’s oil industry.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 5, 2011, 12:31 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli troops braced for Syrian incursions

Sunday, June 5 Israeli troops opened fire on scores of Syrian civilians attempting to breach the border at Majd al Shams and Kuneitra. They kept on approaching the border, throwing rocks, after the soldiers tried to stop them with tear gas, firing at legs and loudspeaker warnings in Arabic that they advance on pain of death. Syrian TV reported three killed and 12 injured as attempts were made to break down the fence in other parts of the Golan border in search of patches not guarded by Israeli patrols. The soldiers are using sniper fire against pinpointed targets of individuals trying to damage the fence.
Reinforced contingents were ordered to act firmly and with restraint to prevent the mass breaches of Israel’s Syrian, Lebanese, Gaza Strip and West Bank borders of March 15.
The Israel-Syrian fence was repaired and strengthened, ditches dug and signs of minefields put up. The IDF declared the Golan a closed military sector.

The Netanyahu government relayed messages to neighboring Arab leaders that Israel would not tolerate any more assaults on its borders.
This latest round of attempted Palestinian incursions was called for June 5 to mark the 44th anniversary of the Arabs armies’ defeat by Israel in the Six-Day War. Syrian TV is goading the demonstrators to sustain their assaults on the Israeli border fence after sending a special crew to cover the event – unlike the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown of dissent against his own regime which is closed to domestic and foreign media.

Police used stun grenades and tear gas to push hundreds of stone-throwing Palestinian rioters back from the Kalandia crossing to Jerusalem from the West Bank side. In Lebanon, the army and UNIFIL combined forces to prevent disturbances near the Israeli border.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 4, 2011, 5:55 PM (GMT+02:00)

It’s still not over for Bashar Assad?

Two unforeseen events Friday, June 3 rekindled Syrian protests with full force – just as Syrian President Bashar Assad was preparing to celebrate his reassertion of authority after suppressing the uprising against his regime with active Iranian and Hizballah help: The leaders of the Syrian opposition-in-exile meeting in Antalya under Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s aegis struck a deal with the Muslim Brotherhood which brought 100,000 Brotherhood loyalists back on the streets in the northern town of Hama.
debkafile‘s military sources disclose: Just as the conference of major Syrian opposition party leaders approached a fruitless ending, the Muslim Brotherhood, consented to introducing a clause in the “National Unity Charter” providing for the separation of religion and state in the guidelines of the post-Assad regime.
The MB made this concession after consulting with the group’s leaders in Cairo and under heavy Turkish pressure.
It means that, even if the Brotherhood, which is banned and persecuted under the Assad regime, does run for election, the regime taking over would not be religious in nature.
This decision is of major significance not only for Syria but also for Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians where the Muslim Brotherhood has a strong presence.
Word of the Antalya accord flashed through Hama, center of the Brotherhood’s revolt against the Assad family since 1982, and brought half the population out on the streets. Syrian security forces were caught unawares. Someone on the spot or along the higher Syrian and Iranian chain of command in Damascus panicked. An order went out to shoot directly into the crowd and break up the demonstration with maximum casualties. The result of up to 150 dead and 350 injured ignited fresh outbreaks in neighboring Homs, a town of more than 1.2 million inhabitants.

Northern Syria was aflame again after the uprising in the North and most other parts of Syria had largely subsided last week.
Fresh disturbances also hit the southern province of Horan and its capital Deraa a month after unrest there had been suppressed by troops shooting dead more than 500 protesters and injuring thousands. Covert Saudi agents operating from Ramtha in neighboring Jordan managed to whip up fresh anti-Assad riots in Deraa and Deir a-Zur among the Shamar, a nomadic tribe which roams across the Syrian, Jordanian and Iraqi borders and whose center is in northern Saudi Arabia.
The new outbreaks confronted President Assad with a fresh challenge at the very moment that he was polishing his victory speech to celebrate the crushing of the revolt against him.

He must now decide between carrying on with his iron-fist crackdown to douse persistent protests, or rely on the new bloodbath in Hama, Deraa and Deir a-Zur to act as a deterrent against the nationwide revival of mass demonstrations.

The third option, which he threatened earlier in the three-month revolt, would be to re-channel the fury directed against his regime into aggression on the Syrian-Israeli border.

Amb. Marc Ginsberg: Syria’s Shame.

Today was the 10th week of successive Friday “Days of Rage” in Syria since a mid-March popular revolt began against the Assad family dynasty. Yesterday, Secretary of State Clinton declared that the legitimacy of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad “has nearly run out.”

Hmmm. I’m having a hard time deciphering what “nearly” means in relation to the escalating violence in Syria. Does this represent little more than “foreign policy by torture statistics?” Should we surmise that as more and more evidence of further killings and incidents of torture trickle out from Syria after today’s latest Friday violence the Obama administration may finally free itself from its own self-imposed policy shackles and get on the right side of history?

How much more evidence of mayhem and gross violations of human rights does the Secretary of State need from inside Syria to state for the sake of America’s own credibility that the Assad regime’s legitimacy has finally “RUN OUT”?

I guess in keeping with prior dubious “lifeline” statements tossed to Assad from the Obama administration (e.g. “reform or get out of the way…,” etc.) there seems to be a very odd statistical correlation between the amount of rope Mrs. Clinton leaves dangling for Assad and the number of deaths and torture victims reported by international human rights organizations. By my count he isn’t even hanging by a thread.

The tell-tale ambiguity of our policy and Mrs. Clinton’s evident hesitation defies reason even if the U.S. has no real leverage to influence Assad. Do we actually believe that Assad is going to be beholden to the U.S. for rhetorically keeping our proverbial “bus in the garage?” And if we’re earning any brownie points from the Saudis or Israelis by not crossing that road, are the points really worth it at this point given the deteriorating events and escalating violence inside Syria?

Before today’s latest reports of mayhem throughout Syria, human rights organizations estimated that over 1,200 innocent Syrians have been murdered on the streets of Syria’s cities at the hands of Syria’s dreaded Mukhabarat secret police aided by Iranian agents well versed in their trade. The number of Syrians tortured, imprisoned, or otherwise unaccounted for is now in the thousands. Syria is using the full force of its military to confront the extraordinary bravery of Syrian protesters. By all accounts Assad, like his utterly ruthless father before him, is clearly determined to break the back and will of the protest movement no matter what the cost in lives and the final ounce of dignity left in the regime.

Not that it really matters to the Assad regime what Mrs. Clinton or for that matter anyone else in the Obama administration opines. Assad has, by all accounts, rendered himself utterly tone-deaf to the entreaties of the international community as the violence has escalated. He knows Russia, China and Iran remain in his corner, and although he has crossed the proverbial Rubicon in the use of force against his own people, Assad also knows that, unlike in Libya, no NATO or any potential “coalition of the willing” will take any overt action against his regime other than impose largely symbolic economic sanctions. So despite economic isolation and growing international outcry, Assad knows he’s safe because, by our statements, we have signaled to him that he is “too big to fail.” We could do cartwheels in downtown Damascus demanding his ouster and it wouldn’t matter one iota.

The sustained assault against Syria’s democratic protesters has accelerated in recent days to the point that the government-orchestrated violence and repression equals anything that we feared Col. Gaddafi was planning to do against the hapless people of Benghazi until NATO intervened. If his regime is to fall, it surely won’t be because of outside intervention, much less from international protest or economic hardship. It will fall because the outrage and sacrifice of the Syrian people has forced him and his clique out of town.

It is hard to know how long this “battle to the death” will continue between Assad’s regime and the protest movement. But one thing is for certain — as a long-time observer of Syrian politics, the notion that the Assad regime’s continued longevity is the lesser of two evils is fast becoming a mirage.

Fears of post-regime sectarian strife and the potential regionalization of Syria’s implosion can no longer be excuses to hide behind or paralyze contingency planning. Rather, the better foreign policy is for the U.S. to prepare for a potential post-Assad regime by quietly reaching out to the Syrian opposition organizing in Turkey to offer non-military and moral support to the movement, as well as assessing how to contain the potential fall of Assad with Syria’s neighbors: Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Iraq, as well as with our European allies and other members of the Arab League.

If Assad is able to hold on, well then we know this “devil.” Unfolding events in Syria, however, suggest that it is time to get to better know the “devil” we don’t know.

Ahmadinejad says Israel, U.S. will ‘collapse’ in near future – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Ahmadinejad accuses Israel of being the main factor in regional and global insecurity on day marking 22nd anniversary to the Islamic revolution in Iran.

By DPA

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Friday predicted the disappearance of Israel and the United States in the near future, saying he was certain the nations would soon collapse.

“I am certain that the region will soon witness the collapse of Israel and the U.S.,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech at the shrine of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the late supreme leader of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

	Iranian President Ahmadinejad attends a meeting in Tehran.
	Photo by: Reuters

June 4 marks the 22nd anniversary of the takeover by the ayatollah, who was subsequently replaced in June 1989 by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader.

Ahmadinejad accused Israel of being the main factor in regional and global insecurity and blamed the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama for supporting the Jewish state.

The Iranian president caused international condemnation in 2005 when he said that Israel should be eliminated from the Middle East map and transferred to Europe or North America.

International isolation of the Islamic republic escalated after Ahmadinejad held a Holocaust conference in 2006 in which he questioned that the killing of 6 million Jews in Europe during World War II had ever happened.