WarSclerotic

Report: Hezbollah moves missiles from Syria to Lebanon, fearing fall of Assad regime – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has used trucks to move hundreds of long-range Iranian-produced missiles from Syria to bases in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Le Figaro reports.

By Barak Ravid

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has moved hundreds of missiles from storage sites in Syria to bases in eastern Lebanon, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported on Saturday.

According to the report, Hezbollah moved the missiles due to the concern that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad will fall and that a new Syrian government will cut off ties with Hezbollah.

	Hezbollah fighters preparing to launch Katyusha rockets.
	Photo by: AP

The report quoted a “Western expert” as saying that intelligence agencies have monitored the movement of trucks from the Syrian border to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The trucks contained long-range Iranian-produced Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles.

Hezbollah had been storing these missiles in depots in Syria. Some of the depots are secured by Hezbollah personnel while others are located on Syrian military bases.

According to the report, the movement of the missiles has been problematic, particularly due to concerns that Israel and other nations are monitoring the trucks with spy satellites.

“Hezbollah is afraid that Israel will bomb the convoys,” the Le Figaro report said.

The report added that Hezbollah has moved the missiles using means of camouflage more sophisticated than it has used before.

The report also noted that Syrian intelligence and the Al-Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recently established a joint operations room at the international airport in Damascus. This step was taken as a result of the lessons learned when an Iranian arms plane was caught in Turkey in March.

According to the report, the plane which was on its way from Iran to Syria was forced to land in Turkey after information on the plane was passed from American intelligence to Turkey. A search of the plane uncovered missiles, mortars and many other types of weaponry.

Abdülhamit Bilici: Turkey’s test with Syria.

Al Arabiya

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Abdülhamit Bilici is a Turkish journalist and editor of the English language daily, Today’s Zaman. (File photo)

Massive energy discoveries complicate relations between Israel and Lebanon. Analysis by Mary E. Stonaker.

Al Arabiya

Friday, 24 June 2011

Both nations’ motivations in the border dispute are now based upon the ability of domestic oil and gas fields to change the fate of future generations. (Illustration By Amarjit Sidhu)

A rapid descent into war is a very real possibility in the Levant unless Israel and Lebanon solve their disputed maritime border issue, and quickly. Weighed down by nearly $50 billion in national debt, Lebanon is eager to claim their share of the Leviathan basin gas and oil discoveries shared with Israel, Syria and Cyprus.

Disputed maritime borders and the fact that Israel and Lebanon are technically still at war after the 2006 ceasefire agreement, forecast a tricky road ahead for all parties involved.

Discoveries in this massive basin, Leviathan, may birth fields in Syrian and Cypriot waters. Leviathan is estimated to contain up to 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and 1.7 billion barrels (bbl) of oil. For perspective, Saudi Arabia holds 238.1 tcf in proven gas reserves and 264.5 bbl in proven oil reserves.

The recent power vacuum in Lebanon ended last week when Prime Minister Najib Miqati announced a new government. Miqati inherited a national debt equal to nearly 150 percent of its GDP.

After the announcement, Israel released a statement hoping that Miqati and the new government would take steps to ensure the 2006 UN Resolution 1701 border agreement would be upheld.

The maritime border, however, was not discussed during UN Resolution 1701 (2006).

In January, the UN rejected Lebanon’s request for assistance in delineating the maritime border as well as preventing Israeli exploration and production (E&P) companies from drilling in would-be Lebanese waters.

The border issue here is two-fold.

First, the Israeli border with Lebanon was declared unilaterally by Israel.

Moreover, Israel is not a signee on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which dictates what constitutes maritime borders.

Even if Israel were a signee, the lack of a stable, mutually-agreed terrestrial border from which to base a maritime border would hinder the enforcement of the Law of the Sea.

Consequently, the contested nature of this maritime border is not under the jurisdiction of the UNIFIL which oversees the terrestrial border between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line. The lack of mechanisms under which to resolve this long-standing issue have merely prolonged the ceasefire rather than witnessed a progression into a mutual state of peace.

The nations currently do not enjoy diplomatic ties.

Both nations’ motivations in the border dispute are now based upon the ability of domestic oil and gas fields to change the fate of future generations. As both nations are pioneering shifts away from oil to natural gas, the following will focus the gas aspect.

In 2008, Lebanon possessed 9 Tcf of proven gas reserves, produced 208 Bcf of gas and consumed 213 Bcf. The differential was offset by its linkages to the Arab Gas Pipeline which originates in Egypt. Lebanon was operationally linked to the AGP (AGP) in 2006.

Despite consuming and producing very little natural gas, Lebanon is currently in the process of converting its power plants to run on natural gas from petroleum-based products. In 2006, Syria promised to supply Lebanon with 1.5 million cubic feet per day (mmcf/day) for 10 years through the Arab Gas Pipeline. However, Syrian shortages of domestic supplies may hamper the fulfillment of that promise.

Israel currently feeds about half of its domestic natural gas consumption, fueling the other half through the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline (a branch of the AGP). With a capacity of 335 mmcf/y, this pipeline stretches 100 kilometres under the Mediterranean to connect Israel to the AGP. The pipeline was constructed and is operated by the East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG).

EMG is a multinational gas company and a joint effort of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) with 68.4 percent of shares, Merhav, an Israeli company with 25 percent and the Ampal-American Israel Corporation with the remaining 6.6 percent of shares.

The associated supply agreement between Egypt and Israel has come under intense scrutiny after former President Hosni Mubarak’s departure from Egypt’s government.

Artificially low prices were achieved by the Egyptian government selling the gas at low prices which then passed along the favor to Israel Electric Company (IEC).

The recent release by Al-Jazeera of the signed contracts will add further pressure to eliminate the corrupt legacy of Mr. Mubarak’s rule in Egypt.

As Israel prepares for potential supply gaps from Egypt, it is also looking into the near future by commencing oil and gas drilling. The recent oil and gas discoveries will not only supply domestic demand, they would allow Israel to become an exporter which would completely change the regional dynamic.

The magnitude of these discoveries and quick Israeli action led to the call for urgent action by Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, according to AFP. This is a follow-up to the exploration and production law passed last August by the parliament to oversee drilling.

These efforts aim not only to counter Israel’s full claims over the fields on the disputed border but also defy the recent Israeli-Cypriot maritime border agreement.

An added sticky issue in this border dispute is the potential for further conflict between Palestine and Israeli. A fully complicated issue itself, the peace process has moved at a snail’s pace, if at all, since Israel’s creation in 1948. However, these energy fields will no doubt add a further dimension to this already multi-faceted state of affairs.

Finally, the security of rigs set up in the Mediterranean waters off Israel and Lebanon must be addressed and will add high costs to this project if companies wish to have on-stream supplies in the coming years. Israel is aiming for 2013.

Sabotage of oil and gas rigs in the Mediterranean would have disastrous environmental and social effects on the region, leaking these destructive mineral resources into the ocean as well as cutting off energy supplies to millions.

It would be dangerous to give anything but the utmost significance to the quick resolution of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel. Without that critical foundation, these disputes will lead to violent clashes as nations fight for their future generations’ access to stable and reliable energy supplies.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report June 25, 2011, 9:04 AM (GMT+02:00)

Turkish soldiers help Syrian refugees at border

After more than a year of strained relations, Turkey has decided to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel as Ankara heads for a military showdown with Syria, according to debkafile‘s exclusive military sources. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also gives Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and a chance to bring Hamas into the process.
The deal was discussed in a telephone conversation that took place between the US president and Turkish prime minister last Tuesday June 21, hours after Assad’s hardnosed speech at Damascus University. The last ends were tied up when Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, visited Ankara secretly last week and met Erdogan and Fidan Hakan, the head of Turkish intelligence MIT.

Obama and Erdogan agreed that Bashar Assad’s reign was over although both their intelligence agencies gave him another four to six months to hang on. To hasten his end, they decided on a two-part campaign: the US and Europe would step up sanctions on Syria and Turkey would raise the military heat.
This decision prompted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to comment for the first time on a possible Turkish-Syrian military clash: “…we’re going to see an escalation of conflict in the area,” she said.

Saturday, June 25, Turkey began setting up a big new camp to accommodate a further influx of 12,000 to 15,000 Syrian refugees at Apaydin 10 kilometers from the border, on the opposite side of which Syria’s crack 4^th Division is massing tanks under the command of Syrian Republican Guard commander Gen. Maher Assad, the president’s brother.
The numbers of refugees continued to swell after soldiers again opened fire on tens of thousands of demonstrators who poured into the streets after Friday prayers, killing at least nineteen.
As Syrian-Turkish military tensions continue to escalate, Ankara saw the necessity of coordinating its air and naval operations with the United States and Israel in case the Syrian ruler responded to a border flare-up by launching surface missiles against Turkish military targets and US bases in Turkey.  Obama urged Erdogan and Hakan to get together with the Israeli minister Yaalon to work things out, a move that would call up the old close strategic bonds between Turkey and Israel before they the rupture over Israel’s 2009 Cast Lead operation against Hamas in Gaza, the Turkish flotilla episode of May 2010 and other incidents.

Calling off Turkey’s critical participation in the next big flotilla scheduled for this month to breaking Israel’s Gaza blockade indicated the ice was melting.

For the sake of opening a new chapter between Jerusalem and Turkey, our sources disclose that Netanyahu gave in to Obama’s request to give Erdogan another chance to promote Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy – this time by bringing Hamas aboard. The Turkish prime minister believes he has a fair chance of altering Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal’s inflexible resistance to recognizing Israel.
After meeting Meshaal’s rival, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, in Ankara Friday, June 24, Erdogan said “Turkey would mobilize support to help the Palestinians achieve recognition and form their own state.”  Abbas replied: “There will be no turning back from the road to reconciliation [with Hamas].”

Abbas and Meshaal were both in the Turkish capital at the same time, although they denied meeting.
Confirmation that the Turkish prime minister had returned to the role of Israel-Palestinian broker, which he resigned in anger after Israel’s Gaza operation in 2009, came from Jerusalem: Thursday, June 23, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told a visiting group of Turkish journalists: “We also accept and respect the fact that Turkey is a regional power with a great historic role.”

As to Ankara’s bid to broker reconciliation between Abbas and Meshaal and get them to sign a power-sharing accord, the Israeli official commented: “It is also in our interests that the Palestinians have unity. We know once they sign, they sign for everybody and we don’t have to worry about this.”

debkafile‘s political sources: Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have obviously recognized that if the price for Israel-Turkish reconciliation and a return strategic collaboration is accepting Hamas’ presence on the Palestinian side of the negotiating table, it is worth paying. They have apparently conceded the long-held principle not to deal with a Palestinian terrorist group dedicated to Israel’s destruction without seeking cabinet endorsement.