Archive for June 19, 2011

Syria forces upping the use of terror tactics

June 19, 2011

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Syria forces upping the use of terror tactics

June 19, 2011

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Nuclear Expert: Iran’s Drive for Bomb ‘Relentless’

June 19, 2011

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Nuclear Expert: Iran’s Drive for Bomb ‘Relentless’

June 19, 2011

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Nuclear terrorism and nonproliferation expert Jack Caravelli tells Newsmax that Iran remains “relentless” in its pursuit of nuclear weapons despite all efforts to dissuade the regime.

He also says that while a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a serious political threat in the region, the Islamic Republic would likely not launch an immediate attack on Israel because Iran is “not suicidal.”In an exclusive interview with Newsmax.TV, Caravelli warned that there is the threat of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East today “and the biggest concern of course is Iran. We’ve been watching Iran and its commitment of resources to a program that almost certainly has a weapons element to it. On a parallel track, Iran has developed long-range missile capability.

“These capabilities, if they play out in the next couple of years — Iran hasn’t crossed the nuclear weapons threshold yet as far as we know – pose a direct threat not only to Israel in a military sense, but also in a political sense. What some people don’t fully appreciate is a nuclear weapons capability could have profound implications politically throughout the region.

“What is most important is that no matter what the international community has tried to do to move Iran off that course — through politics, diplomacy, economic sanctions — those policies have not really changed Iran’s behavior.

“We need to do more because Iran appears to be relentless in their desire to achieve this capability.”

Asked to assess the Obama administration’s dealings with the Iranian threat, Caravelli responds: “Under the Obama administration I think the short answer is [Iran has] not changed, and through that lens the Obama administration’s policies have not succeeded.”

Given the threat Iran poses to Israel, and the likely Israeli response to an attack, some say a regional war in the Middle East is inevitable.

“I wouldn’t say it’s inevitable, but given the fragility of the Middle East politically, it can’t be ruled out,” Caravelli comments.

“I don’t think if Iran succeeds that it uses it abilities on the following day. I think Iran is not suicidal. There’s probably more rationality than we understand.

“But the long-term political implication of Iran with the [nuclear] capability and with aggressive policies in the region — support for terrorism, Hezbollah and the like — really adds to the political fragility in the region and is something Israel cannot ignore.”

With Arab governments toppled in Egypt and Tunisia and anti-government unrest in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, Caravelli expresses confidence that democracy may someday take hold in the region.

“Democracy of sorts may well emerge, and I hope it does in countries like Egypt. This will not happen overnight. It will probably be messy. There may be elections held the results of which we may or may not like, and this process will take years and perhaps decades to unfold, until we have answers as to what the new Egypt, the new Bahrain, the new Yemen look like.

“I think there are reasons within the Arab world to look at what Israel has achieved and say democracy works. It can build a better future for our citizens.”

Following Pakistan’s arrest of five people thought to have helped the United States find Osama bin Laden, Caravelli was asked if American can count on Pakistan as an ally in the war against terror.

“It’s a mixed answer,” he tells Newsmax.

“Pakistan was embarrassed by what we achieved in killing bin Laden. Pakistan will be quick to point out on the other hand that thousands of its troops have died fighting extremist groups.

“Pakistan has probably not been the partner we would have liked to have seen in the counter-terrorist policies we have pursued. But we can’t give up on Pakistan. We hope Pakistan won’t give up on us.”

Caravelli also warns about the planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan: “We put at risk the gains we have achieved through our blood and treasure if we precipitously pull out.”

Iran dissidents call for protection after attack in Iraq

June 19, 2011

Iran dissidents call for protection after attack in Iraq – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

An Iranian dissident leader called on the United Nations on Saturday to protect her group’s Iraqi base after an attack by Iraqi security forces.

By Reuters

An Iranian dissident leader called on the United Nations on Saturday to protect her group’s Iraqi base after an attack by Iraqi security forces.

Camp Ashraf, about 65 km north of Baghdad, is the base of the People’s Mujahideen Organization of Iran (PMOI), which the United States, Iraq and Iran consider a terrorist group.

Iran protests - AP Iran protests in 2009.
Photo by: AP

The camp’s fate has been in question since the U.S. military turned it over to Baghdad in 2009 under a bilateral security agreement.

On April 8, Iraqi forces moved against the camp in what they said was an attempt to reclaim land and return it to farmers. The United Nations says 34 Iranian dissidents were killed, while Iraqi officials say three died.

“The armed forces must leave the camp and an impartial investigation into the April 8 massacre must begin,” Maryam Rajavi told an event outside Paris that drew an estimated 15,000 people, mostly Iranian exiles from around the world.

“It is doubly important for the U.N. to assume protection for Ashraf,” she added, to cheers from the crowd.

The PMOI — headed by Rajavi’s husband, believed to be in hiding — has for decades has advocated the overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran in place since 1979.

The United States has proposed a temporary relocation of Ashraf’s residents within Iraq, pending eventual resettlements in third countries, but the PMOI’s umbrella group — the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) — rejects this.

Among the crowd was former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who said Ashraf’s residents should be evacuated to the United States and Europe, “where they can be safe.”

(Writing by Lionel Laurent; Editing by Alison Williams)

Syria, pawn in power play by world’s major powers? Yes. By James M. Dorsey

June 19, 2011

Syria, pawn in power play by world’s major powers? Yes. By James M. Dorsey.

Al Arabiya

Wounded Syrian men rest in a medical tent next to a refugee camp in the Turkish border town of Yayladagi in Hatay province. (File Photo)

Wounded Syrian men rest in a medical tent next to a refugee camp in the Turkish border town of Yayladagi in Hatay province. (File Photo)

Syria is fast becoming a high stakes pawn in the jockeying for positions by the world’s major powers, the United States, Europe, Russia and China.

As casualties mount in Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters, the United States and Europe are considering seeking Mr. Assad’s indictment on charges of war crimes in the International Criminal Court (ICC). China remains aloof while Russia is projecting itself as a non-interventionist alternative to the West.

The net effect is that Mr. Assad can continue to brutally cling to power irrespective of the human and economic cost to Syria. Syrian security forces were reported to have stormed on Saturday yet another town on the Turkish border. Thousands of Syrians have already fled to safety in Turkey.

An indictment will hardly deter Mr. Assad much as it didn’t change the ways of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. Chinese aloofness and Russian non-interventionism means Mr. Assad has little to worry about.

For the West, Syria increasingly poses a moral as well as a political dilemma; for Russia and China it creates an opportunity to come out a winner irrespective of who emerges victorious not only in Syria but across the region.

“It is increasingly clear that President Assad has made his choice. But while continued brutality may allow him to delay the change that is underway in Syria, it will not reverse it,” US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in an opinion piece published in Al Sharq Al Awsat.

She accused Mr. Assad of “embracing the repressive tactics of his ally Iran” and wrote that “Syria is headed toward a new political order” that should be shaped by the Syrian people.

The bottom line is however that Syrian protesters will have to achieve a new political order on their own steam and against the odds. The United States and Europe are seeking to hold their moral high ground without hitting Mr. Assad where it hurts.

While the West may be reluctant to intervene militarily much in the way it has done in Libya, it has yet to decide that it is time for Mr. Assad to go. Despite a declaration by French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe that Mr. Assad had lost the legitimacy to govern Syria, American and European leaders remain inclined to opt for the devil they know rather than the one they don’t. Western leaders have stopped short of calling for Mr. Assad’s departure uncertain of who may succeed him. In short, Mr. Assad has at this point little to really fear from the West.

Meanwhile, the most immediate casualty of Russian and Chinese attitudes and Western indecisiveness is a European sponsored draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council that would have condemned the violence of Mr. Assad’s regime and called for the granting of access to humanitarian groups. Russia and China see the resolution as a first step towards a call for military intervention in Syria.

The message to Mr. Assad is that the international community is divided and paralyzed, allowing him to play both sides against the middle.

Mrs. Clinton failed in talks in Moscow on Friday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to break the deadlock over the Security Council resolution that amounts to nothing more than a verbal condemnation void of punitive measures. Mrs. Clinton clearly felt that she was more likely to persuade Russia than China given that the latter was not on her travel itinerary.

Refugees in camps on the Turkish side of the Syrian border and protesters on the front line in Syria watch the jockeying for position over their backs with mounting incomprehension.

That doesn’t stop Russia and China from exploiting their plight.

Granted, both Russia and China feel betrayed by the West. They charge that the United States and Europe violated the UN-sanctioned no-fly zone in Libya imposed to protect civilian lives by gunning for the toppling of Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qaddafi.

The presidents of Russia and China, Dmitry Medvedev and Hu Jintao issued a joint declaration in Moscow earlier this week berating unspecified nations for “the wilful interpretation and expanded application” of Security Council resolutions on Libya.

That may be true; nonetheless there is considerable mileage in it for both Russia and China. Both countries, but particularly Russia have long standing ties to regimes like that of Mr. Assad dating back to the days of the Soviet Union. Much of the weaponry Syrian forces employ in their crackdown is Russian in origin.

Both countries have an interest in keeping Mr. Assad in power. He has been a willing tool in thwarting Western ambitions in the Middle East. Mr. Assad’s value may however be significantly diminished. Syria’s grip for example, on the exile wing of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip, is waning.

Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Mishal, uncertain of where Syria is heading and facing demands for a greater say by Hamas’ Gaza wing, is cuddling up to post-revolution Egypt and last month accepted a reconciliation agreement with the group’s West Bank rival, Al Fatah headed by Palestine Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The agreement had long been on the table, but it took the anti-autocratic Arab revolt for Mr. Mishal to ink it.

Nonetheless, both autocrats and revolutionaries weary of foreign powers influencing their post-revolt governments’ policies, are likely to appreciate Russia’s positioning itself as a mediator rather than an interventionist like the West and China’s allowing the chips to fall where they fall. At least, that is what Russia and China are counting on.

As a result, Russia has kept its lines open to both Mr. Qaddafi’s regime and the NATO-backed rebels and has offered its good offices to mediate a resolution to the Libyan crisis. Russian ambassador to Libya Mikhail Margelov met in Tripoli on Thursday with Mr. Qaddafi’s prime minister, Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmudi, and Foreign Minister Abdel Ati Al-Obeidi.

Mr. Margelov emerged from the meeting calling for a diplomatic solution. He said Mr. Qaddafi was “not prepared to leave, and …will talk about the country’s future only after a cease-fire.”

Mr. Margelov’s conclusion left little hope for successful mediation as rebel forces made advances on their march toward Tripoli.

Nonetheless, Mr. Qaddafi has his plate full with NATO and NAT-backed rebels even if Russia straddles the fence and China stands aside. Mr. Assad doesn’t as a result of Russian and Chinese attitudes and Western indecision. He can focus wholly on cracking down on protesters who have demonstrated remarkable resilience. For now, little on the horizon suggests that this will change.

(James M. Dorsey, formerly of The Wall Street Journal, is a senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer. He can be reached via email at: questfze@gmail.com)

 

IDF to hold drill simulating mass missile attacks across Israel

June 19, 2011

IDF to hold drill simulating mass missile attacks across Israel – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Home Front Command launches fifth major drill to prepare civilians in case of attack; sirens to sound across country on Wednesday, when citizens will be requested to retreat to nearby shelters.

By Haaretz

The Israel Defense Forces will begin a nation-wide Home Front defense drill on Sunday, to prepare security forces for an array of possible attacks.

Sirens will sound in cities and towns across the country later this the week, as Israeli security and rescue forces practice for various scenarios. A siren will be heard at 11 A.M. on Wednesday and again at 7 P.M. the same day, at which point civilians will be requested to retreat to their closest shelters as part of an evacuation drill.

Home Front Command drill

Home Front Command drill in Tel Aviv

Photo by: Alon Ron

The drills will include rescue efforts in case of a missile strike on Tel Aviv or an attack on the Knesset building. The defense establishment will simulate as part of the drill a scenario in which hundreds of missile strike locations across the country.

This is the fifth such drill held by the Home Front Command and is considered one of the largest. All Israeli rescue forces and governmental authorities will participate in carrying out.

Turkey to Assad: Fire your brother

June 19, 2011

Turkey to Assad: Fire your brother – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Erdogan’s government to demand removal of Maher Assad, considered strongman man behind brutal suppression of Syria uprising, al-Arabiya says Saturday; according to report, Turkey willing to take him in

Roee Nahmias

An emissary on behalf of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to arrive in Syria in the next 24 hours with a “warning message” to President Bashar Assad, al-Arabiya reported Saturday.

According to the report, Ankara is demanding that Assad fire his brother Maher, considered the strongman behind the brutal suppression of the Syrian uprising that claimed an estimated 1,300 lives so far. Ankara is reportedly willing to take Maher in, or help in finding a shelter for him elsewhere in Europe.

Following the brutal violence against protestors in Syria, media outlets worldwide published feature stories about Maher Assad, characterizing him as the “bad cop” of Syria’s regime. Observers estimate that President Assad will be increasingly relying on his brother and his forces should the upheaval in the country escalate.

‘Arab nations concerned’

According to the al-Arabiya report, Turkey demands that “Maher Assad be removec from all positions of government power” via dismissal from the army. A Turkish source said that Ankara is willing to guarantee that Maher will not be prosecuted should he depart in the framework of a rapid, in-depth process of political reform.

“Even if part of the Syrian people is still willing to accept Bashar as the address for carrying out reforms, the overwhelming majority can no longer accept the presence of his brother, Maher Assad, and the military men under him,” the report said.

Meanwhile, outgoing Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said that “Arab nations in the region are concerned about the crisis that has befallen Syria.” Moussa, who announced that he will not run for president in Egypt, made the statement at a press conference in Cairo.

Mounting threats

June 19, 2011

Mounting threats – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

A rocket being fired from the Gaza Strip 

By JERUSALEM POST EDITORIAL