WarSclerotic

MORE DEATHS IN SYRIA AS ASSAD BEGINS NEW CAMPAIGN AGAINST CIVILIAN PROTESTERS.

Al Arabiya

Friday, 10 June 2011

A Syrian protester is silhouetted behind a Syrian flag during a demonstration against President Bashar Al Assad. (File photo)

Could Assad vent his wrath on Israel? – JPost – Defense.

  Some nations may be able to turn a blind eye to atrocities in other countries. The United States of America is different. And as president, I refused to wait for the images of slaughter and mass graves before taking action.”

President Barack Obama made this statement on March 28 in an address to the National Defense University, during which he explained America’s rationale for approving a military campaign to stop Libyan leader Col. Muammar Gaddafi’s violent crackdown on protesters.

The war in Libya is almost three months old and seems to be continuing, but one question that remains unanswered is why the above policy of not turning a blind eye to atrocities doesn’t apply to other countries in the Middle East – like Syria, for example.

By Thursday, the death toll in Syria was believed to have already reached over 1,500 people, but the international community, led by the US, could not even find itself in agreement over the language of a resolution censuring Syria that some countries in Europe wanted to push through the Security Council.

So why the difference? In a word: Israel.

Israel does not share a border with Libya, but it does share one with Syria, and there are fears in the IDF that in the event of foreign military intervention there, Israel would feel the brunt of Bashar Assad’s retaliation.

While Assad is already believed to be trying to divert attention from his lethal crackdown on protesters by encouraging Palestinians to raid the Israeli border, as occurred this past Sunday, this is just the tip of the iceberg of what Syria can do.

One intelligence assessment speaks of the possibility that, under extreme pressure – caused politically or militarily – Assad might decide to attack Israel with more than just angry Palestinians from the Yarmouk refugee camp near Damascus.

Instead, he would have available the thousands of ballistic missiles Syria has manufactured over the years, as well as an extensive chemical arsenal, bolstered as a replacement for the nuclear reactor Israel destroyed in 2007.

For this reason, Jerusalem is quietly warning about the potential consequences of Western military action aimed at toppling Assad. This does not mean, of course, that Israel wants Assad to remain in power; in reality, the opposite is true. But the concern cannot be ignored; what will happen the day after Assad falls, and into whose hands will the ballistic missiles and chemical weapons fall?

At the same time, senior IDF officers believe that there is no turning back for Assad and that after killing some 1,500 of his own people, he will not be able to rule again as he once did. What this means practically is still unclear, but the hope is that it will ultimately lead to a larger break in the Iranian axis that connects Tehran, Damascus and Beirut, and will further isolate Iran and cut off supplies to Hezbollah.

Syria’s close allies – Hezbollah and Iran – are also extremely concerned with the ongoing demonstrations in Syria and the potential impact on them.

Western intelligence agencies have raised the possibility that Hezbollah is trying to transfer advanced weaponry it reportedly maintains on Syrian soil to Lebanon due to the ongoing turmoil in the country.

The group is believed to have stored advanced arms in Syria – including longrange Scud missiles- as part of its logistical deployment along Israel’s northern border.

Iran is also not waiting for Assad, and just this week – in the midst of the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East – announced that it was implementing plans to triple its production of uranium. It also said that the secret nuclear facility it was caught covertly building near the city of Qom in 2009 would no longer remain empty and would be equipped with advanced centrifuges for the enrichment of higher-grade uranium.

The Iranian announcement came just two days after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Yukiya Amano said the nuclear watchdog had obtained information that “seems to point to the existence” of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program.

Amano’s announcement came just a few weeks after the IAEA released its latest report on Iran’s nuclear program, pointing to a significant increase in the enrichment of uranium – up from 133 kilograms per month to 156 kg. – with a total of just over 4 tons of low-enriched uranium (LEU), enough for at least two nuclear weapons if enriched again to higher military-grade levels.

While Iran is still encountering some technological difficulties, overall it seems to have overcome the setback caused last year by Stuxnet, the virus that attacked its uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and is believed to have destroyed over 1,000 centrifuges.

In simpler terms, Iran is taking advantage of the current shift in the world’s focus from its illicit nuclear activities to the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East, and is moving forward with enriching uranium. The decision on Tuesday to send submarines to the Red Sea is another indication of Iran’s growing confidence and its belief that it will not pay a price for any of these provocations.

There are a number of reasons for the confidence. While the current sanctions in place against Iran have had some effect, they are overshadowed and undermined by the increase in the price of oil. In addition, while other tyrants in the Middle East are battling for survival, in Iran the protests have waned and almost disappeared.

According to Israeli intelligence assessments, Iran wants to wait until it has enough fissionable material to produce an arsenal of nuclear weapons, which means it will need several more tons of low-enriched uranium. From the stage when it decides to break out and begin enriching uranium at military levels, until the point that it has a testable nuclear device, it will likely be a year.

Iran’s confidence also appears to have received a boost from the recent media mayhem in Israel over former Mossad chief Meir Dagan’s comments about Jerusalem’s military option vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear issue. Dagan said it was a “stupid idea” to attack Iran, and pointed out the “impossible” regional challenge Israel would face following such an attack.

For Tehran, these comments fell on welcoming ears. For years, the Iranians have questioned Israel’s military capabilities. Now here comes Dagan – their archnemesis – and gives them a reason to. Dagan’s justification for doing this – his concern with Israel’s current political leadership – might be genuine, even though it was done with the awareness that it would eat away at the deterrence Jerusalem has tried for years to create in the face of the Iranian threat.

Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon has long spoken about the importance of creating a “credible military option” for Iran’s nuclear program. According to Ya’alon, it is not enough to speak about the option; it is also necessary to show the Iranians that it is real, viable and effective.

“They need to fear that the military option is real and can be used,” Ya’alon has said in the past.

To back up this argument, Ya’alon has referred to Tehran’s 2003 decision to suspend its enrichment of uranium and weapons program. That move was based on fear that after the US invasion of Iraq, it was next in line. President George W. Bush had already listed Iran has part of the “Axis of Evil” mentioned in his 2002 State of the Union address.

Judging by its recent decisions, Iran no longer feels threatened. As it continues to provoke the world without paying a price, there is unfortunately no reason it should.

‘Iran caught 10 times trying to … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

  Iran has been caught red-handed in 10 different attempts in recent years to transfer weaponry to terrorists throughout the Middle East, including a recent case, in April, when a shipment of advanced missiles was caught en-route to Taliban forces in Afghanistan, according to a United Nations report obtained Thursday by The Jerusalem Post.

The report was submitted three weeks ago to the Security Council by a UN group of experts that monitors compliance with UN sanctions imposed on Iran. The report was leaked to the Internet and obtained by a number of leading Israeli defense analysts.

The report documents all 10 cases of arms smuggling, including the case of the Victoria cargo ship, which was stopped by the Israel Navy earlier this year carrying arms for Hamas. In the most recent case cited, British forces in Afghanistan found a weapons shipment of advanced Iranian-made anti-ship missiles and 122 mm. rockets en route to Taliban forces in Afghanistan.

In March, Turkish authorities stopped an Iranian cargo plane bound for Syria. At the time, Turkey tried to downplay the news, but the UN report reveals that authorities discovered dozens of AK-47 assault rifles and close to 2,000 mortar shells. The report confirms that the arms originated in Iran and were supplied by the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The report further reveals that Iran test fired two of its most advanced long-range missiles – the Shihab 3 and the Sajil – in February.

The tests were not reported at the time by the Iranians, or by the United States or Israel, both of which track such missile launches.

Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center at the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, analyzed the UN report and said the missile tests were significant since Iran was making efforts to hide its ballistic missile program, something that raises suspicions about the nature of the program and its connection to the Islamic Republic’s illicit nuclear drive.

“For a number of years, they have been trying to display shorter-range rockets like the Qiyam and the Fateh 110,” Inbar said. “In the most recent military parade, they did not even did not even show the Shihab.”

The report, which also discusses the regular exchange of ballistic missile technology between Iran and North Korea, said financial sanctions appeared to be having an effect on Tehran, as demonstrated by “the range of measures taken by Iran to circumvent them.”

“These measures are expensive and time-consuming to set up and administer. They include arrangements to enable sanctioned Iranian banks to maintain access to the international financial sector through normal business conducted by non-sanctioned Iranian banks,” the report said. “Nevertheless, despite financial restrictions, Iran appears able to continue to pay for procurement from abroad for its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”

Syrian forces fire to kill at Damascus pro… JPost – Middle East

  AMMAN – Syrian security forces shot dead at least two protesters when they fired at a pro-democracy rally in the Qaboun district of Damascus on Friday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

“It seems that it was a big demonstration, given the direct use of live ammunition,” Observatory director Rami Abdelrahaman said, adding that the information came from witnesses.

Other activists said that security forces fired automatic rifles, some from rooftops, at the demonstration, which demanded the removal of President Bashar Assad.

In an escalation of rhetoric towards Syrian President Bashar Assad yet unseen from Ankara, Turkish Prime Minsiter Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the Syrian crackdown on protesters “inhumane,” and described it as barbaric, Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman reported on Friday.

As some 2,500 refugees have fled to Turkey in recent days from Syria’s northern region where troops and tanks are amassing ahead of an expected offensive, blasted the tactics employed by Syria’s elite army units, led by President Assad’s brother, Maher.

“Sadly, they don’t behave like humans,” Erdogan said of the Syrian army’s 4th Division, commanded by Maher Assad, according to the report. “Now the barbarity… [soldiers] pose [for a photo] in such an ugly way at the bedside of women who they killed,” the Turkish prime minister added, “these images cannot be digested.”

It was by far Erdogan’s strongest call against the Bashar Assad, who he has previously described as a “good friend.”

Addressing moves in the United Nations Security Council to impose stronger sanctions against Assad and his regime, Erdogan said, “We can’t [support] Syria amidst all this as Turkey. We still have relatives [in Syria].”

Recalling a telephone conversation with the Sryian leader several days ago, Erdogan lamented, the Syrian leadership “take[s] this very lightly,” according to the report.

Also on Friday, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the legitimacy of the rule of Syrian President Bashar Assad was open to question after the killing of protesters by security forces.

“I would say the slaughter of innocent lives in Syria should be a problem and a concern for everybody,” Gates told a seminar in Brussels.

“Whether Assad still has the legitimacy to govern his own country, I think is a question everyone needs to consider,” he said.

The Syrian army began a military operation in a restive town near the Turkish border, state television said on Friday, as the country braced for more violent protests against the rule of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The Syrian government said earlier that “armed gangs” killed more than 120 security personnel in Jisr al-Shughour, a town of 50,000, earlier this week.

“Our correspondent in Jisr al-Shughour told us now that in response to people’s calls, units from the Syrian Arabic Army started its duties in Jisr al-Shughour … to arrest armed members,” the television said.

Rami Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said residents in the northwestern town told him the army was still advancing towards the town. “They can hear gunfire and so far we do not have any casualty reports,” he told Reuters.

Thousands of Syrians in the region fled into Turkey on Thursday fearing the military assault. At least 15,000 troops had deployed near Jisr al-Shughour, which residents said had largely emptied of people.

The latest reports of a government crackdown intensified international concerns over Syria’s handling of pro-democracy protests, inspired by uprisings across the Arab world.

Britain, France, Germany and Portugal have asked the UN Security Council to condemn Assad, although veto-wielding Russia has said it would oppose such a move.

World powers have shown no appetite for any Libya-style military intervention in Syria, which has so far shrugged off sanctions and verbal reprimands from abroad.

Syria has barred most independent media from the country, making it difficult to verify accounts of the violence.

Assad, 45, has promised reforms even while cracking down on unrest buffeting the country that has become the gravest threat to his 11-year authoritarian rule. Friday prayers have been a focus of protests throughout the revolt.