WarSclerotic

Middle East Views | Iran’s Salafi Sleeper Cells.

News reports about Iranian plots to target the Arab Gulf States through local Shiite cells, which have been planted and programmed to carry out terrorist activities and create chaos, in the event of an attack on Iran, may not be far from the truth. However, it is incorrect to suggest that the Shiites alone would be Iran’s agents in a time of crisis. This belief is completely naïve, for Iran today is the largest employer of Sunni movements, specifically the Salafist groups, who are considered the most radical Sunni group, and certainly different from the Shiites. The attack which struck the Japanese oil tanker near the Straits of Hormuz a month ago was not a Shiite operation, but that of a Sunni-Salafi Saudi national based in Iran! There are hundreds more like him, of Arab nationality, hiding and being trained inside Iran. There are also hundreds of others receiving support from Iran for their activities in other areas such as Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Lebanon, Gaza and so on.

Yet the portrayal of this political issue [employing Sunni movements] as one that contradicts with Shia doctrine, or with the Shiites as a people, is reminiscent of the ancient Iranian project, which aimed to unite Shiites worldwide. However this project only worked partially in Lebanon. Indeed, the Tehran regime’s relationship with the Shiite Arabs has been significantly marred by political problems, as is the case in Iraq today, where Iranian efforts have failed to impose influence on Shiite religious parties, to form a certain political mould. If that had succeeded, the political crisis in Baghdad would have ended with an outright majority in parliament and the formation of a government, albeit of Iran’s choosing. Yet this has not succeeded because each party has its own opinion and political agendas, which it believes in and insists upon. Also, there are Shiite Arabs in western Iran today who are treated badly and discriminated against in their own country [Iran]. Thus there is clear evidence that Iran does not see the world along the lines of a sectarian divide, but in accordance with the interests of its politically pragmatic system. This system strives to do all it can to serve the Iranian regime’s objectives and spread its influence, to Sunnis or Shiites.

The truth is that the best battalion serving Iran today is not those Shiite groups in the Arab region loyal to Iran, but Sunni extremist groups which systematically assist Iran, by prompting Shiite citizens to doubt and reject [their own regimes]. These extremist groups serve Iran by spreading fear amongst the Shiites in the Gulf, thus sending their Shiite youth into the arms of Iran.

It is expected that the Iranian authorities intend to put all their effort into securing the largest number of Iranian sympathizers of the Gulf Shiites, and use them for Iran’s purposes within their own states. Iran in its present plight believes it has the power to confront any U.S. attack, through chaos and terrorism, and it is hardly surprising that it will awaken the cells in the Gulf if such a crisis occurs. Here it would be naive to believe that the cells are only Shiite, but in reality they include Sunnis, and Arabs of different nationalities.

*Published in the London-based ASHARQ ALAWSAT on Aug. 23, 2010.

‘Israel will react to Iran accordingly’.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon this week told the Iranian people by radio that a regional war initiated by Teheran was a distinct possibility, adding that “Israel is committed to defending its citizens and if attacked will act accordingly.”  The comments, released by the Foreign Ministry in Hebrew on Tuesday, came during a Farsi-language broadcast on Israel Radio in which Ayalon addressed the people of Iran, taking calls and answering questions . The Farsi broadcast originally aired on Monday.

“A fear exists that Iran – as it becomes more pressured by sanctions – will goad those under its patronage in Hizbullah and Hamas to initiate military action against Israel. There’s also a possibility that Iran will make a military move against the Arab Gulf states and harm the flow of oil to the world, in which case the entire situation will degrade into widespread confrontations. Remember that the sanctions are aimed against Iran’s efforts to arm itself with nuclear weapons, and if they don’t elicit results, the United States and other nations might consider other options.”

Iranian general: Teheran should hit enemy outside ME.

U.S.: We are troubled by Iran’s nuclear intentions, not its military growth – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

U.S. State Department spokesman: Recent unveiling of advanced Iran weapons systems do not avert Washington’s attention from its controversial nuclear program.

The United States is concerned about Iran’s nuclear intentions, not the weapons systems it develops, a senior U.S. official said on Monday, referring to several recent unveilings by the Islamic Republic of self-made advanced military equipment.

	Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during a ceremony inaugurating the Karrar drone aircraft, August 22, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

Earlier Monday, Iranian state media reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps inaugurated production lines for two high-speed vessels, the Seraj and Zolfaqar, which are to be armed with missiles and torpedoes.

The unveiling came only a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad personally announced the development of the country’s first domestically made drone, the Karar, which has range of 1,000 kilometers and is armed.

Speaking on Monday to MSNBC, U.S. State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said that, while Iran’s developing military capabilities were of concern to the United States, its sights were set on “Iran’s intentions.”

	A soldier in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard accompanies coffin of ecently recovered bodies of fallen soldiers of the Iran-Iraq war, Tehran, May 14, 2010
	Photo by: Reuters

“I don’t think that any one weapon system is going to tip a balance one way or the other, but certainly Iran sees itself as a regional power,” Crowley said.

“And as they acquire more capability, that will be of concern to the United States and other states in the Gulf, and we will respond appropriately. But obviously, of greatest concern to us are Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

Crowley said that Washington continually assesses “Iran’s nuclear capability,” saying the Islamic Republic was experiencing “some trouble with the technology, but this trajectory that they’re currently on is of concern to us.”

“We’ve made clear that Iran having a nuclear capability would set off an arms race within the region,” Crowley said, adding that such a turn of events would not be “helpful to us; that’s not helpful to the region.”

“We want to do everything we can to forestall that. We also think that one step to help stabilize the region is to end the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. These things are connected,” the State Department spokesman said.

When asked whether or not he believed Israel would strike Iran in response to its recent weapons’ unveiling, the State Department spokesman said that “every country, including Israel, will act in its own self-interest and to defend itself.”

“We’re trying to put pressure on Iran to clarify its nuclear programs and to be a more constructive player in the region,” Crowley said, adding that the United States had attempted to ward off Iran’s military threat by working “closely with Israel and other countries in the region – build up their defensive capabilities to offset Iran’s growing influence.”

“We’re prepared to engage this regime. We hope to have conversations with Iran perhaps next month to try to clarify its nuclear ambitions,” he said, adding that dialogue with Iran would take place within the context of what we call the P5 plus 1.”

“We also want to see Iran more constructively engage the IAEA so that we understand more fully what its nuclear plans are,” Crowley said.

via DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 23, 2010, 7:48 PM (GMT+02:00)

Separate scripts

debkafile‘s Washington sources reports Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is misleading his ministers by presenting the direct talks opening with the Palestinians on Sept. 2 as a diplomatic victory. He has omitted to disclose that the Obama administration has reneged on the secret deals for paving the way to the talks it concluded with Netanyahu’s senior aides Yitzhak Molcho and Uzi Arad.

Part of the deal was for Israel to line up with the Obama administration’s non-reaction to Iran’s activation of its Russian-built nuclear reactor at Bushehr last Saturday, Aug. 21. The United States promised, for its part, to deliver the Palestinians to the negotiating table for face -to-face talks after dropping their pre-conditions (determination of the 1967 lines as the final borders of a Palestinian state and a moratorium on Jewish construction on the West Bank and Jerusalem).
But most of all, the secret deal obliged Obama to refrain from twisting Israel’s arm on behalf of the Palestinians should the dialogue founder – as it is widely expected to do.

Wit this deal in the bag, Netanyahu was able to showcase the Obama administration’s endorsement of his diplomatic strategy and is rejection of Palestinian demands.
However, the deal was shown to have sprung a leak in the formal announcements in Washington of Friday, Aug. 20, debkafile discloses.
Whereas Secretary of State Hillary Clinton kept faith with Israel and turned down a last minute White House demand to insert this phrase in her announcement: “The United States could offer bridging proposals if necessary,” into her announcement, the euphemistic phrase turned up in special presidential envoy George Mitchell’s remarks elaborating on the Clinton statement.

The US sources consulted by debkafile Monday, Aug. 23, made no bones about White House intentions. Those “bridging proposals” referred to Obama’s views on the most intractable disputes at issue between Israel and the Palestinians, i.e. final borders, Jerusalem and Israel’s security demands. They would be put forward as friendly gestures to lift the talks out of a ditch, but Israeli would be left in not doubt that it must bow to the US president’s take – or else.

In Ramallah, debkafile‘s sources report, Mahmoud Abbas, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, was accused of failing to stand up to US pressure when he agreed to meet Netanyahu face-to-face on Sept, 2 after 20 months of ducking direct talks. Abbas assured them that the Palestinians had no cause for concern because the White House had promised him that the “bridging proposals” would be tilted in the Palestinians’ favor and Netanyahu would be hustled into backing down on every important issue.
Our sources add that Washington also reneged in the first half of its commitment to Israel too. Instead of staying mum on the Bushehr plant when it was started up on Saturday, Aug. 22, as did the Netanyahu government, the state department spokesman responded a few hours later by saying that Washington sees no “proliferation risk” from the launch of Iran’s first nuclear power plant.
This went down badly in Jerusalem as a form of US approval for the reactor, a surprising deviation from their accord and another ill omen that the Obama administration may seek to grind Israel down in the way it manages the talks with the Palestinians.
Obama is already under fire from several groups of Israel’s defenders for what is regarded as his unfair and unbalanced treatment of Israel and favoritism for the Arab and Muslim side of the Middle East rift. The drift of Jewish and pro-Israeli voters away from the Democrats ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections is reflected in more than one poll. According to the latest Pew Research Center report earlier this month, whereas in 2008 the Democrats enjoyed three times as many Jewish supporters as the Republicans. The ratio has now sunk to less than two to one.

In Israel, the US president’s ratings, exceptionally high after his election, have plunged – unaffected by the effort Obama made to give Netanyahu a warm White House welcome in July.

The Israeli prime minister may be counting on the November midterm elections to hold Obama’s hand from weighing too heavily in favor of the Palestinians – if the talks manage to stagger on that long.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 24, 2010, 6:00 PM (GMT+02:00)

Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis – Al Qods planner of pre-emptive against Israel

Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Gen. Mohamed Ali Jafari, who rarely leaves his country, paid a secret visit to Damascus a few hours before Tehran launched its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr Saturday, Aug. 21. With him were top Al Qods Brigades commanders in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories. The group stayed only long enough to confer with Syrian president Bashar Assad and his military and intelligence chiefs on three topics:

1. The roles Syria and Hizballah will play in a potential Iranian military reprisal to a possible American or Israeli strike on its nuclear sites.
2.  The probable repercussions of an Iranian decision to use Hizballah or pro-Iranian terrorists as proxies for a pre-emptive strike – or strikes – against Israel.
3.  How Syria can help discourage the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia from their willingness to support a US or Israel attack on Iran with bases, intelligence assets and other means.
The importance and urgency of this discussion is attested to by the IRGC’s supreme commander having made his trip outside Iran for many years.  It was one of the red lights abounding of late that instilled in Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak a sense of urgency for a strategic response to the Bushehr startup. He accordingly cut short the furious contest raging in the IDF’s General Staff over the contest for the next chief of staff by an abrupt announcement of Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant’s appointment to the post when the incumbent ends his tour of duty in February. This quelled the scandals surrounding forged documents and intrigue, but above all it sent a message to Tehran: Israel’s defensive posture and self-restraint, as practiced by Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, was about to change. Iran may run into a different response if it makes goods on its threats of aggression and the flurry of war preparations they are orchestrating around Israel’s borders.
The incoming IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Galant, who commanded the 2009 Cast lead operation against Hamas in Gaza, subscribes to an offensive, proactive military approach in contrast to the dovish Ashkenazi. Although he formally takes the reins next February, Ashkenazi may well will step down before his term is up and make way for his hawkish successor. With Galant at his side, the defense minister has begun reshaping the General Staff to match the new approach and the requirements of the incoming C-of-S.
debkafile‘s military sources add that Israel is taking very seriously the presence in Gen. Jafari’s secret delegation to Damascus of two high-ranking IRGC Al Qods officers. They have been identified as Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, commander of Iran’s terrorist and spy networks in Iraq, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and Hassan Mahdavi, formally designated IRGC envoy to the Lebanese Hizballah, who was recently elevated to overall command of the Lebanese terrorist organization.
This promotion effectively changes the status of Hizballah, which is represented as a political force in Lebanon’s parliament and government, from Tehran’s surrogate to external arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps under the direct command of an al Qods officer – an ominous pointer to the goals Iran has set itself in a country bordering on northern Israel.

As for Al Muhandis, the US Treasury targeted him for personal sanctions in July 2009 as “adviser to Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Qod’s Force, the arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for providing material support to Lebanon-based Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command” – all of them notorious terrorist groups.

Ahmadinejad: Israel is too weak to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Iranian president says the U.S. is not interested in sparking an all-out military confrontation with Iran.

By Haaretz Service

Israel is too weak to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the French AFP news agency quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as telling the Al-Jazeera network on Sunday, adding that Iran would act decisively against anyone who dared attempt a military strike against it.

	Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during an official meeting with Malam Bacai Sanha in Tehran, August 9, 2010.
	Photo by: Reuters

Ahmadinejad’s comments came a day after Iranian and Russian engineers began the weeklong operation of loading uranium fuel into the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a major milestone as Tehran forges ahead with its atomic program, despite UN sanctions.

Speaking to the Qatari-based satellite network in an interview translated from Farsi, Ahmadinejad reiterated the warning against a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying he rejected the “possibility of an attack by Israel.”

“Israel is too weak to face up to Iran militarily,” the Iranian president said, adding that Jerusalem did not have “the courage to do it… and I do not think its threat is serious.”

	The Bushehr nuclear power plant, south of Tehran.
	Photo by: Reuters

Referring to the possibility of a U.S.-led strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Ahmadinejad claimed “America is not interested in sparking a military confrontation,” but vowed “decisive response” if Washington indeed went ahead with its threats military action.

“There are no logical reasons for the United States to carry out such an act,”   Ahmadinejad told Al-Jazeera.

“Do you believe an army that has been defeated by a small army in Iraq can enter into a war with a large and well trained army like the Iranian army?” he asked, referring to the insurgents in Iraq.

“The friendship of Iran is much better than its hostility,” he said.

The Al-Jazeera interview came hours after a high-ranking officer in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards told the semi-official Fars news agency that Iran’s reaction to a possible U.S. military strike against its nuclear facilities would target American interests beyond the Middle East.

Speculating on the possibility of a U.S. strike against Iran’s developing nuclear program, Deputy Revolutionary Guards Commander for Political Affairs Brigadier General Yadollah Javani said earlier Sunday that “if Americans make a strategic mistake and choose the military option against the Islamic Republic and our nation’s interests, Iran will not confine its defense to the region.”

“In case of any illogical move, the Islamic Republic’s hands and advocates will be powerfully activated against the interests of the hegemonic system and U.S. bases outside the region,” Javani told Fars.

Earlier this month, Javani had commented on the possibility of a U.S. strike of its nuclear facilities, saying that Iran would “give a crushing response to its enemies.”

Turning his attention to Israel, Javani had that Iran did not believe its enemy was capable of attacking. Nonetheless, he said, Iran would be prepared in case that equation should change. “Iran never ignores its enemies. Hence, we have been increasing our defense and deterrence capabilities.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

Ahmadinejad unveils long-range bomber-drone Karrar

Defense minister Ehud Barak’s snap nomination of OC Southern Command Maj. Gen, Yoav Galant as Israel’s 20th chief of staff was necessary – not just to dispel the climate of intrigue among competing generals, but to pull the high command together in view of the preparations to attack Israel gathering momentum in Tehran, Damascus, Beirut and Ramallah – and even in al Qaeda in Yemen.
(debkafile gave early warning of these preparations on Aug. 20. Click here for article.)

The general expectation of a US-Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites has therefore faded into the background of the threatening stance currently adopted by Tehran’s allies, Syria, Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
According to debkafile‘s military sources, Israel intelligence does not have evidence of concrete plans to make good on these threats, but Jerusalem is extremely concerned by the placing of four hostile military forces on the highest level of war preparedness in the last few days and are asking why.
For example, Syrian prime minister Naji al-Otari and Abbas Zaki, one of Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ closest aides, have spoken of a “very imminent” Middle East war; Al Qaeda’s No. 2. commander in Yemen, Saeed al-Shehri, released a videotape last week stating that a war between Iran and Israel is about to erupt. He called on all Arab aviators to contribute to the holy cause by crashing their planes on Israeli city centers as did the Al Qaeda martyrs who attacked New York and Washington on Sept. 11 2001.
The situation being too incendiary to ignore, Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister decided the malicious documents traded among the top brass in the last ten days were an indulgence Israel could not afford. They therefore ended the uncertainty over the choice of next chief of staff after Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi steps down in February 2011. Ehud Barak delivered a surprise notice to the regular cabinet meeting Sunday, Aug. 22 that he had cut short the selection process and named Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant as his candidate for the next chief of staff.
debkafile‘s military sources see five elements with the potential for exploding into a major Middle East flare-up:

1.  Iran has taken US and Israeli passivity over the start-up of its Russian built nuclear reactor at Bushehr on Aug. 21 to mean that it can get away with more muscle-flexing and has already factored the reactor which Washington characterized as not immediately dangerous into its military build-up.
Sunday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unveiled an armed unmanned aerial vehicle called Karrar, claiming its range to be 1,000 kilometers – as far as Israel – and able to deliver four cruise missiles. These claims have yet to be independently verified.
More locally-made advanced weaponry is promised for this week to demonstrate Iran’s independence of outside sources.  Its leaders are bragging that Iran will soon take its place among the world’s top 50 exporters of advanced arms.
2.   The forthcoming Israel-Palestinian peace talks beginning in Washington on Sept. 2 – while generally rated as going nowhere – are nonetheless anathema for Tehran and its radical allies. They are perfectly capable of starting trouble on Israel’s borders with Lebanon, Gaza or even Syria to sabotage even the dimmest prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough.
There is no telling in the Middle East when an isolated incident may not deteriorate rapidly into a major conflict when the climate is as tense as it is at present. It came dangerously close on Aug. 3, when a Lebanese army sniper shot dead an Israeli colonel precipitating a heavy exchange of fire.
3.  Lebanon is on tenterhooks over the nine Hizballah leaders the international court inquiring into the 2005 Hariri assassination plans to summon as suspected perpetrators of the crime. Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has given the Beirut government  due notice that if his top people are surrendered to the tribunal, he will plunge the country in a civil conflict.
Hizballah, backed by Damascus, recently began accusing Israel of engineering the murder, so providing themselves with a neat pretext for going to war and avoiding facing the music.
Thursday, Aug. 19, all Syrian homeland defenses and emergency services were placed on the highest war readiness for an outbreak of hostilities without further notice.

4.  The situation on the Israel’s southern borders is as tense as its Lebanese and Syrian frontiers.
5.   Iran is expected to take advantage of the withdrawal of US combat troops from Iraq to make a grab for the oil-rich south and send its allies to carry out operations against Israel as a diversionary tactic.

All these reasons have led military sources to indicate to debkafile that the outgoing Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazy may not stay on until February but hand over to Maj. Gen. Galant as soon as the beginning of the Jewish New Year in the second week of September, 2010.

A Look at The Atlantic’s Debate on Israel, Iran, and the Bomb – International – The Atlantic.

Aug 22 2010, 9:30 AM ET |

Thus she has made a wager with Goldberg, and he has accepted. Wright bets that neither the Israelis nor the United States will have bombed Iran by July of next year. It appears that the stakes are each other’s autographed books — which one hopes they would exchange anyway as a friendly courtesy without need of explosions or bloodshed.

Doomsday Articles Reflect Edginess on Iran – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

by Gil Ronen

Two articles that appeared in internet news sites Sunday morning appear to reflect an atmosphere of edginess in parts of the Israeli public regarding the possibility of a war with Iran and its proxies. One was written by a person who claims to be part of a forum of experts but uses a pseudonym, and the other was written by Udi Pridan, an advertising executive.

An article signed by Haggai Amos, a pseudonym, appeared in the News1 website, under the headline: “Israel will be Attacked by Lebanon and Syria within the Next Two Weeks.”

Amos is identified as a member of the “Israeli Intelligence Forum,” which includes retired members of the intelligence community and former government officials.

The Russian-Iranian move to open the Bushehr nuclear plant this weekend, Amos opines, was meant to signal to the “declining powers of Europe and the U.S.” that a new front is taking shape: Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, North Korea, Brazil and Venezuela are all lining up against the West.

Iran wants a war to break out between Israel and Lebanon within the next two weeks, the article claims. Lebanon, it warns, will launch missiles against all parts of Israel, especially Tel Aviv. This “first strike” will cause massive casualties and psychological shock in Israel and will be accompanied by missile fire from Hamas in Gaza and by terror attacks in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.

This will be followed by a second strike: a chemical weapons attack by Syria that would cause “hundreds of thousands of dead in Israel.” Israel will retaliate “very severely” but only against Iran’s proxies – Syria, Lebanon and Gaza – the article predicts. It does not explain why Syrian President Assad – a secular Alawite Muslim – would be willing to doom his country to annihilation in the service of Iran, a Shi’ite power. It also does not say why Israel would not retaliate against Iran if it knew the attack was initiated by it.

Pridan’s article appeared in Haaretz and is titled “Wake Up!”. It predicts that Israel will take action against the Iranian nuclear program. “Stricken Iran will respond with its remaining strength” following the Israeli attack, the prominent advertiser warns, firing “missiles that can carry a payload of half a ton of explosives or chemical weapons.”

In addition, Hizbullah will fire thousand of rockets. Pridan also believes Tel Aviv will be badly hit, and envisions the IDF Headquarters at HaKiryah, the Akirov Towers where Defense Minister Ehud Barak resides, and the Azrieli Center towers all being reduced to rubble.

“If there will be thousands of dead, we will lick our wounds. Five thousand would be a national trauma. At 20,000 we will use the doomsday weapon against Iran, and then there will really be a new Middle East,” Pridan writes.