WarSclerotic

NTI: Global Security Newswire – Experts Debate Possibility of Iran Attack.

Iran asks IAEA to oppose sanctions.

Iran atomic chief: No alternative to resistance in nuclear dispute – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iran’s atomic chief said the country had no alternative than resisting world powers in the dispute over its nuclear programs, the ISNA news agency reported on Wednesday.

“Today, our only option in the nuclear dispute is resistance, and if we do resist, then the opposition against our nuclear programs will collapse,” Ali-Akbar Salehi predicted.

Using nuclear power to generate energy would also generate economic benefits because no fossil fuels are necessary, he said.

	Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, gestures to chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, after unveiling of uranium centrifuge in Tehran on April 9, 2010.
	Photo by: AP

Iran has insisted that all its nuclear projects are solely for peaceful purposes and rejected Western charges that it is working on a secret military program.

Tehran rejected all past demands to suspend its uranium enrichment, saying it is its legitimate right to pursue nuclear technology.

“We have so far succeeded to resist all political pressures, and the more they pressure us, the more we accelerate the speed of our programs,” Salehi said.

Iran’s first nuclear power plant, which was built by Russia, is to be opened Saturday in the southern Gulf port of Bushehr. The 1,000-megawatt reactor is to become fully operational within six to seven months.

“There are 1,000 Iranian experts in Bushehr who will take charge of the plant from the Russians as soon as the guarantee phase is over,” Salehi said.

He also said “more happy news” about Iran’s nuclear achievements would be announced in the coming days.

Iran plans to build 10 to 20 nuclear power plants and enrichment sites in the coming years with the final aim to produce enough nuclear fuel to cover its electricity needs.

Iran currently operates one uranium conversion and one enrichment site. A second enrichment plant is under construction.

According to Salehi, construction of a third enrichment site is to start by March.

Let’s Attack Iran.

By Ari Bussel Wednesday, August 18, 2010

It was rumored long ago that Israel engaged in the unilateral disengagement from Gaza, uprooting thousands of Israelis from their homes and places of livelihood, when there were pending investigations against Arik Sharon and/or his sons.  The argument goes that the purpose then was to create a diversion.

Gen. Sharon suffered a debilitating condition and since then his life has been artificially maintained. No one knows the true purpose of the Unilateral Disengagement—was there an overall plan?  Were there subsequent steps planned vis-à-vis Gaza and the Palestinians?  These are questions that will forever remain unanswered.

It seems in Israel anything is possible.  Thus, one does not rule out even the most outrageous ideas.  If it were not so sad, one could burst out laughing.  Let us look at what is happening:  Israel is embroiled in a new scandal, a so-called (Gen.) Galant Document, an exercise in dirty politics, a blatant attempt to influence the selection of the next Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff.

The matter refuses to die down.  On the contrary, each day brings about a new twist or turn.  There is an on-going police investigation, consultants’ testimonies verified by lie detectors, the Chief of General Staff gave a statement to the police, other generals are called and it turns out the document, which aired on Israel’s national TV just ten days ago, was circulating for many weeks, if not months. The party is at its peak.

Imagine one of the country’s leaders deciding it was time to switch gears and shift the country’s focus to something else.  How about a small war, an attack on Gaza, Lebanon or Syria?  Better yet, if we are all ready to engage in adult games, why not strike Iran?  Ambassador John Bolton, former US envoy to the UN, has warned there are only a few days left in the window of opportunity.

Timing in business is everything.  Since President Obama took office, it has became evident the Administration will not stop Teheran from acquiring nuclear weapons.  Apparently, the Free World has acquiesced to this eventuality.  Has Israel?

Israel has shown remarkable abilities over the decades.  Almost thirty years ago it obliterated the Iraqi Nuclear Reactor, and more recently Israel attacked a dangerous development site in Syria.  Thus, one may suspect that despite the insurmountable difficulties, such as Turkey’s prohibition against using its airspace, Russia’s direct assistance to Teheran and its stationing anti-aircraft missiles on one of the possible paths from Israel to Iran, Israel will find a way to achieve her goals.

Possibly Israel has realized the only course of action is brute force.  In Israel a prevailing motto states that when “brute force fails, use more force.”  If the only effective way to end Iran’s race to establish functioning nuclear plants (which are for nothing but military purposes) is to launch nuclear warheads from its submarines, then there is no rush for a preemptive strike.

It is possible that Israel is engaging in PsyOps, psychological warfare, trying to mislead the world into thinking Israel is sinking in petty-bickering. They may have drafted a fraudulent public relations document that is being assigned 100% credibility as a diversion.

Ambassador Bolton’s warning about Israel’s closing window of opportunity if she chooses to act is either a sign of frustration or desperation stemming from America.  Those in the intelligence and military communities have realized the Leader of the Free World will not act and may have already succumbed to Islam. Everyone’s eyes are thus turned to Israel, but Israel either refuses or is unable to act.

Or is she?  Is there a surprise in store for the world?  Iran poses the greatest world threat since the rise of Hitler.  The same demagogy, the same delegitimization of the Jewish People, the very same reaction by the world community; only the power of the toys have changed and can kill millions with the touch of a button.

If what is taking place in Israel is a diversion, we must pray for the success of Israel’s well thought and even better disguised plans of action.  May all those on a mission be successful in its execution and return safely home.

If however, what is taking place in Israel is truly a reflection of how far society has disintegrated, an abyss far deeper than can be seen, a self-inflicted chaos and the crumpling of Israel’s very pillars of strength, morality and valor, then Israel must regroup and quickly.

The next few days will tell this story, but Israel must change course.  Today, doubts are raised against Israel’s best and brightest, the very fabric of its society, the essence of Israel’s as a modern, free and democratic country—a safe place for the Jewish People. A country to serve as a light among nations.

Heightened Talk Of Israel Strike On Iran | The Jewish Week.

Israel must launch a military attack against Iran within days, according to one expert — months, according to others — if it is to prevent Iran from going nuclear.

Those dire warnings, most recently from John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and national correspondent Jeffrey Goldberg in a cover article in The Atlantic, have once again thrust Iran’s quest to develop nuclear weapons back into the spotlight. But several experts scoffed at the claim by Bolton that Israel must act by early next week to keep Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility from becoming operational.

Bolton, who served at the UN under President George W. Bush, had claimed on Fox Business Network that once Russia delivers nuclear fuel to the Bushehr facility this weekend, which is then loaded into the plant’s core, it would be too late for Israel to launch a military strike because an attack would spread radiation and harm Iranian civilians.

“Once that uranium, once those fuel rods are very close to the reactor, certainly once they’re in the reactor, attacking it means a release of radiation, no question about it,” Bolton said. “So if Israel is going to do anything against Bushehr it has to move in the next eight days.”

But Yossi Alpher, a former analyst for Israel’s Mossad and Israel Defense Forces, said Israel has no intention of bombing the Bushehr facility because “it’s an electric power reactor.”

He said Bolton’s claim that the Bushehr facility was comparable to the Iraqi nuclear reactor or the facility North Korea was building in Syria — both of which were destroyed by Israeli warplanes — was “absolutely wrong.” And Ephraim Inbar, director of Israel’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, called Bolton “a big alarmist.”

Still, attention is focusing again on Iran’s persistent drive to develop nuclear capabilities, and on the limited, and frightening, scenarios that could result when that happens.

The Netanyahu administration has said it would wait to see whether international sanctions imposed on Iran would compel Iran to stop its quest for nuclear weapons. The UN Security Council voted to impose a fourth set of sanctions on Iran, and the U.S. and the European Union later imposed even more punitive measures against Iranian banks and energy suppliers.

Zalman Shoval, a foreign affairs adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Israel would prefer that “everything be done to curtail Iranian capabilities in every sphere to make sanctions more effective.”

But there is growing concern that sanctions will not be sufficient to stop Iran, and little information as to what the Obama administration’s Plan B would be like.

In the Atlantic article, Goldberg, a highly respected reporter who often covers the Middle East, said interviews he conducted with 40 “Israeli decision-makers” and U.S. officials convinced him that Netanyahu was likely to order a military strike against the Iran sites next spring if the U.S. did not act first.

Israel is prepared to wait through December for the sanctions to work, wrote Goldberg, who quoted one Israeli policy maker as saying Israeli intelligence believes Iran will have a nuclear weapon by next March. The Israelis are concerned as to whether President Barack Obama would fulfill his campaign statement that a nuclear Iran was “unacceptable” and that the “world must prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.”

“If the Israelis reach the firm conclusion that Obama will not, under any circumstances, launch a strike on Iran, then the countdown will begin for a unilateral Israeli attack,” Goldberg wrote in an 11-page article.

The Atlantic Web site also quoted Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, as saying that the sanctions appear to be slowing down the Iranian nuclear project, lowering the odds on Israeli action next year to below 50-50. Goldberg had put it at better than 50-50.

“Indeed,” Indyk wrote, “I would argue that, if current trends continue, it’s actually more likely that the United States will bomb Iran than Israel.”

Alpher, the Israeli analyst, said he doesn’t “have any dates to give you” regarding Iran’s nuclear timetable. But he said a list of conditions would have to be fulfilled before Israel would consider a military strike. Among them: continued calls by Iran for Israel’s destruction; Iran’s ability to launch a nuclear attack against Israel would be “extremely” near; all diplomatic pressure and sanctions would have failed, as well as clandestine efforts to slow the nuclear program; and Israeli aircraft could safely reach Iran and set back its nuclear program for a “significant period of time.”

Inbar pointed out that Iran has to accomplish two things before it has a usable nuclear bomb: it must develop enough fissionable material and have the ability to deliver the bomb to its intended target.

“It is getting close to the amount of enriched uranium it needs,” he said. “But a bomb design, if it has to do it on its own, is complicated. Maybe it got the blueprints from Pakistan, I don’t know.”

Gerald Steinberg, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University, pointed out that there was a Harvard study about two years ago that concluded that Israel could successfully attack Iran without the help of the United States. He said he is convinced that this analysis is correct.

“There’s no question that it is technically doable,” he said.

Asked about those who worry that Iran may have hidden some of its nuclear program at undetected underground sites that Israeli warplanes would miss, Steinberg replied: “There are always questions in any military operation. Just as the Iranians may have hidden aspects of their program, there are technologies and weapons that Israel will unveil for this purpose.”

Should Israel attack the Iranian nuclear sites, Steinberg said it would set back the Iranian nuclear project for years. But he warned that Iran would respond through the use of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, “and other terrorist attacks.” And there would be political implications “because at some point the regime in Iran will be replaced by a more moderate regime and a military confrontation with Israel would remain a sorepoint.”

He stressed that Israel would only attack Iran “as a last resort,” and stressed that no decision would be made “until the last minute.” But Steinberg said the Israeli military has already drawn up attack plans, just as it did months before it destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981.

“Any serious military force confronted with a threat that Iran poses would have to be prepared,” he said. “The concept of a point of no return is really exaggerated. This is a constantly unfolding process. When do costs of waiting exceed the costs of invading? That’s when you go.”

Goldberg told The Jewish Week on Tuesday that he believes “Iran loves nukes and will do anything to have them.” Should it get the bomb, he said, any future conflict between Israel and Hamas or Hezbollah “has the potential for a cataclysm.  … The chances of a nuclear exchange by mistake are very high.”

In addition, Goldberg said that once Iran had a bomb, the Middle East equation would be changed forever, with Islamic radicals emboldened, moderate Arab states set back, and Israel citizens living under unbearable conditions.

“A main reason why there has been no all-out war for Israel for 37 years is because it is protected by its nuclear monopoly,” Goldberg asserted. “Israel’s enemies knew they couldn’t go too far. But if Hamas and Hezbollah get that same umbrella” of Iran’s nuclear protection, the situation would be highly dangerous, “and terrible for the peace process.”

Iran Denies Bushehr Activation Will Enable Atomic Weapon Ability – Defense/Middle East – Israel News – Israel National News.

EDITORIAL: Bombs away in three days – Washington Times.

It’s time to strike Iran’s nuclear program

Israel‘s long-anticipated attack on Iran‘s nuclear program may come as soon as Friday. Yesterday, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said Israel had eight days to strike Iran‘s nuclear facility at Bushehr before it would become operational. He revised the timeline to three days after word came that nuclear fuel would begin loading on Friday. We’re now down to two days and counting.

Action is needed. In February, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported for the first time “concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.” The United Nations has called on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, but this month the IAEA reported that Iran has expanded these activities and is enriching uranium to higher, more dangerous levels. Last month, former CIA director Gen. Michael V. Hayden said Iran was moving forward with its nuclear weapons program and that a military strike to stop it “seems inexorable.” Two weeks ago, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff Adm. Mike Mullen told “Meet the Press” that the United States has a contingency plan ready should the inexorable become the inevitable.

It’s doubtful America will take action. The State Department’s response to the latest IAEA report on Iranian enrichment violations merely said, “We are hopeful that Iran will express a willingness to come to the table. We stand ready to have that dialogue.” Not exactly the kind of rhetoric that instills fear of consequences.

Israel is the only country likely to mount a military strike, and the Bushehr site is an exposed facility that could be taken out with conventional weapons. It’s located on Iran‘s west coast, less than a third of a mile from the shore; air forces would not have to spend much time overflying Iran to attack it. The plant also could be hit using sea-launched cruise missiles from Israeli submarines. With an effective range of at least 900 miles, the subs wouldn’t have to transit the Strait of Hormuz to mount the attack.

The strike needn’t happen before Friday. Mr. Bolton set that deadline because he was concerned that destroying an operational plant would create a radiation hazard, but a strike that left the site radioactive would hinder Iranian attempts to get it back up and running. Civilian casualties would be minimal because the site is located nine miles downwind of the city of Bushehr, and potential fallout would drift over either the Gulf close to Iran or the immediate area, which is arid and sparsely populated.

The most dangerous fallout could be political. Russia, Iran‘s nuclear sponsor, is likely to voice strong objections; the usual anti-Israel suspects will howl; and the United States may not be as sturdy a champion for Israel as it was in the past. But the time has come to demonstrate resolve in face of an imminent threat from Iran. The Free World depends on Israeli power.