Archive for March 2010
A US Volte-Face?
March 8, 2010INSS – המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי > Publications > Periodicals.
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For the sake of argument, let us assume that the US administration has already arrived at the tacit conclusion that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is inevitable, in spite of all US and international efforts to prevent this. What would the repercussions be if this conclusion became known? How would the administration behave if its conclusions became known to the public? How would it work to minimize the ensuing damages from this revelation, both internally and internationally?
If the conclusions are made public, the effects will not be far off from those that would follow a realization that Iran had achieved its aims. Without elaborating, the main damages would probably be in the following areas: increasing threats to US allies in the Middle East states in general and to the Gulf states in particular; threats and pressures on the oil market; serious damage to the prestige and standing of the US; increasing stature to both Russia and China in the international arena; increasing threat to Israel from both Syria and the Hizbollah; and possible increase in world terrorist activities. It is also possible that if not managed correctly, the acceptance of a nuclear Iran could cost President Obama his post and the Democrats the majority in Congress. Indeed, it is hard to see any long term benefits that the US would reap from such a situation. It is in the short term, however, that the US needs to make up its mind on how to act to calm the situation, since it could easily get out of hand.
For its part, if the US has come to see a nuclear Iran as inevitable, it would need to act prudently on several fronts to avoid any significant increase of tensions with Iran. It would need to present a facade that it has not come to terms with a nuclear Iran; thereafter, it would need to assure its allies both in the Gulf area and outside that it will not permit Iran to use its newly found power for furthering its ambitions. It would also need to deter Israel from military actions against Iran’s nuclear installations, since this could open a hornet’s nest. Overall, these can be condensed into one expression: playing for time. This, if the above hypothesis holds true, constitutes a meeting of interests of both the US and Iran. It still would not solve anything, but postpone the crisis of exposure – when the new stance of the US administration is publicly acknowledged, or even generally perceived as such – which is a sort of an achievement by itself.
Playing for time is not so simple in this case, since Iran is rushing full steam ahead in its enrichment program, in its development of the explosive mechanism (if it is not already completed), and in its development of the delivery systems – the surface to surface medium-range missiles. At the moment the rate of enrichment is not very high, but a breakthrough in the development of newer models of gas centrifuge machines could change that very rapidly. With the exception of some states (led by Russia and China) there is wide agreement today that the Iranian project is aimed at the development of a full capacity potential for the production of nuclear weapons. It is immaterial whether the actual decision to complete this development has been taken, since the time difference between the decision and the actual completion of the task is relatively short.
So if the US has indeed accepted an inevitable reality of a nuclear Iran, how would the administration behave? It would encourage delays, particularly in the adoption of sanctions resolutions at the UN Security Council. It would accept weakened sanctions resolutions, since these would not lead to crises, and at the same time it would not pursue strong actions on the part of “like-minded” allies. It would not come out with strong statements condemning Iran for developing nuclear weapons, and would take actions to assure allies in the Gulf states that they are protected from Iranian hostile actions. It would try to convince strong Iranian allies (like Syria) that they would be better off not strengthening alliances with Iran but allying themselves with the West. And it would take strong diplomatic efforts to assure that Israel would not attack Iran on its own.
Yet is this not exactly what is already happening? Any deadline or pseudo-deadline that has been set since Mr. Obama assumed the presidency has come and gone, without any excuse. First were the delays until after elections in Iran, and then the (fruitless) October talks, whereby even if the nuclear fuel deal had been accepted, it would have given the US an illusory breathing space of maximum up to a year. The close of 2009 saw the unfulfilled end of the year deadline for an agreement on the suspension of enrichment in Iran, and more recently Secretary Clinton said that the issue of sanctions might take many months to resolve.
Then came the news that the sanctions would not be as severe as previously thought, would not target the central bank of Iran, would target only the Revolutionary Guards, and would certainly not attempt to cause difficulties for the people of Iran, in spite of the fact that only these could bring about a change of regime. Indeed, the US did not actively support the budding uprising of the people following the rigged Iranian elections. In addition, Newsweek reported that the new edition of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that was supposed to correct the mistakes of the 2007 NIE would not be presented in the near future because of interagency bickering and differences of opinions, and even if approved, it was not certain that an unclassified version would be published. In this, the administration avoids the immediate necessity of taking strong action.
The US is increasing air defense capabilities of some Gulf states, which is another impressive sign of US acceptance of the inevitable, and the remarkable air lift of administration notables to Israel to persuade it not to attack Iran is certainly part of the larger picture. Taking all the above into account, it would need a large effort on the part of the US to persuade others that the hypothesis that the US is ready to accept a nuclear Iran, even if not immediately, is wrong.
The US is today the only international power that could, if it wanted, prevent Iran from acquiring the potential to become a nuclear state. If, as suspected, it is not going to act in this way, the countries that could be affected will have to take a renewed look at the situation and assess their options for their future.
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The Institute for National Security Studies – INSS Insight No. 166, March 8, 2010
Biden: Nuclear Iran would be a threat not only to Israel but also to the U.S.
March 8, 2010| The Obama administration has boosted U.S. defense ties to Israel and will close ranks with its ally against any threat from a nuclear-armed Iran, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said on Monday ahead of a trip to Israel.
Biden will arrive in Israel on Monday afternoon, to deliver a message to the Israeli public about U.S.-Israel relations, the Iranian nuclear program and the Middle East peace process. Biden, the most senior U.S. official to visit since Israel President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, is widely expected to caution his hosts not to attack Iran pre-emptively while world powers pursue fresh sanctions against Tehran.
Asked about the prospect of an Israeli attack, he said, “though I cannot answer the hypothetical questions you raised about Iran, I can promise the Israeli people that we will confront, as allies, any security challenge it will face. A nuclear-armed Iran would constitute a threat not only to Israel – it would also constitute a threat to the United States.” The Obama administration, Biden said, “gives Israel annual military aid worth $3 billion. We revived defense consultations between the two countries, doubled our efforts to ensure Israel preserves its qualitative military edge in the region, expanded our joint exercises and cooperation on missile-defense systems.” Israel, which is believed to have the region’s only atomic arsenal, bombed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and, in 2007, launched a similar sortie against Syria. Those tactical challenges, and U.S. reluctance to see a new regional war, has led some analysts to predict Israel will eventually come round to a strategy of “containing” Iran – which denies its controversial uranium enrichment is for bombs. Biden, who arrives in Jerusalem on Monday and departs Israel on Thursday, was not expected to take part in indirect Israeli-Palestinian talks that would be spearheaded by Obama’s special envoy, George Mitchell, and could be announced during his visit, although he will be briefed on them. U.S.-Israeli tensions flared over Obama’s early push for a complete freeze on settlement construction in the West Bank. Obama has since embraced a more limited, 10-month moratorium on new building announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in November. Obama’s has been trying to reach out to the Muslim world, a priority he highlighted with high-profile visits to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and, later this month, to Indonesia. “We certainly believe that when the United States effectively builds bridges with Muslim communities, this allows us to promote our interests, including interests that Israel benefits from,” Biden told Yedioth. “The construction freeze was a unilateral decision by the Israeli government, and it is not part of an agreement with the American administration or with the Palestinians,” he said. “It is not everything that we wanted, but it is an important action that has significant impact on the ground,” said Biden. Biden’s meetings in Jerusalem will begin Tuesday morning, when he will meet with President Shimon Peres at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem. He will then continue on to the prime minister’s Jerusalem residence to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and advisers. Following a private session, the two leaders will hold a joint press conference. Biden will address the Israeli public at Tel Aviv University on Thursday, during which time he will discuss U.S.-Israel ties and U.S. President Barack Obama’s vision for the peace process and dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat. |
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The Delegitimization of Israel – International Analyst Network
March 7, 2010The Delegitimization of Israel – International Analyst Network.
Mark Silverberg |
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| 07 Mar 2010 | |
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In the aftermath of World War II, with the hideous revelation that 2/3 of European Jews had been systematically exterminated by the Nazis, anti-Semitism became unfashionable. But that is no longer the case. As the memory of the Holocaust fades into history, as we continue to transfer petro-wealth to our enemies; as Europe morphs into Eurabia; as dictators, despots and Islamists take control over the UN and other international bodies; and as our universities become hotbeds for virulent anti-Israel teachings and rhetoric – logic fades, facts become confused with fictions, distinctions between democracies and tyrannies become irrelevant, history becomes unimportant, and anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism become indistinguishable. Natan Sharansky uses what he terms “the 3D test” to distinguish legitimate criticism of Israel from anti-Semitism, and he identifies the three categories as delegitimization, demonization and the double standard. Taking these three factors into account, one can discern that the new anti-Semitism manifests itself in many different forms and in many different forums – through divestment campaigns, international boycotts of Israeli products and entertainers (as Norway has done recently), boycotts of Israeli academics by Western universities, holding Israel to standards no other nations in the world are required to meet – not nearly, and through “Israel Apartheid Week” on Canadian and American college campuses where Israel is assigned the role of Jew among the nations of the world to be singled-out, cursed, harassed and defamed. As Richard Cohen wrote in the Washington Post: “Google “Israel and apartheid” and you will see that the two are linked in cyberspace” despite the fact that Israeli Arabs, about one-fifth of Israel’s population, have the same civil and political rights as do Israeli Jews, and even sit in the Knesset.” Israel’s Ambassador to Finland is Arab. In May 2004, Salim Jubran was appointed to the Supreme Court of Israel. Arabic is an official language in Israel and is posted on all road signs. In 1948 there was only one Arab high school in Israel. Today there are hundreds. The fact that these anti-Israeli boycott campaigners on our campuses attack Israel as an apartheid state not only demonstrates their ignorance of what apartheid was in South Africa 1, but raises the issue of why they do not propose boycotts of states that truly merit international disgust. These protests aren’t just against Israel. They are also against the Jewish People. Israel’s Operation Cast Lead at the close of 2008 – a legitimate act of self-defense by any and all international standards – evoked universal resentment and hatred. Around the world, synagogues and Jewish graves were desecrated and anti-Semitic chants were shouted at protests. In April 2009, a swastika was found painted on a Jewish fraternity house at the University of Florida and on American campuses, and comparisons continue to be made between Israelis and Nazis, and between Palestinian refugee camps and Auschwitz. In France, according to French Ministry of Home Affairs data, 832 anti-Semitic incidents were recorded in France in 2009, as compared with 474 such incidents in 2008 – a 75% increase, most of which was attributed to the country’s rising Islamic population and fallout from Israel’s counter-terrorism operation (Operation Cast Lead) in Gaza. This parallels a similar finding in Canada where a B’nai B’rith study recently confirmed an 11.4% jump in anti-Semitic incidents in 2009 over 2008 including 32 violent attacks, 348 cases of vandalism, and 884 reports of harassment mostly in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. In all this, it is quite clear that distinctions between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism are increasingly blurred. Taken in its totality, Israel not only has no right to defend itself in response to terrorist attacks, but has no right to exist – which suggests that missile attacks on Israel’s civilian population are not only justified, but desirable. The lies perpetrated by otherwise respectable international religious, educational and political bodies against the only democracy in the Middle East are most notable in the double standards that are applied to Israel as opposed to states that have slaughtered their own peoples for decades with absolute immunity from international censure. It is true, of course, that criticizing Israel does not make one an anti-Semite anymore than criticizing the government of France makes one anti-French. But it’s one thing to criticize France, and something else to declare the French nation illegitimate and to advocate its destruction. Martin Luther King, Jr. once referred to Israel as “one of great outposts of democracy in the world,” with an “incontestable right to exist”, but that is no longer the case. Funny how these campus activists never seem to mention the Syrian de jure occupation of Lebanon, or Saudi funding of global jihad, or the treatment of Saudi women, or the crushing of all democratic dissent in Egypt and Iran. They have no difficulty bemoaning capital punishment in the United States, but say nothing when the Palestinians routinely execute suspected Israeli collaborators including the mothers of young children, or when Hamas throws Fatah supporters to their deaths off 15-story buildings. It is shameful that pro-Palestinian professors and students in America and Europe pretend that the only reason for the problems in the Middle East is because of Israeli obstinacy as if it is the fault of the Israelis and not the rejectionist Arab world. Not only has every Israeli concession and every act of goodwill and compassion not changed the way Israel is portrayed – but each concession, each accommodation, each withdrawal first from Lebanon, then from Gaza has only fed the furious hatred that Islam and the international community feels for it. Today even as Israel absorbs missiles fired indiscriminately at its civilian population by terrorists – one continues to hear the howls and hatred voiced about “The Wall” particularly those “innocent” suicide bombers who are being kept from their religious duty of self-detonating amid crowds of Jews. Borders have nothing to do with peace in the Middle East. It is the existence of Israel as a Jewish state that offends the Arabs and their supporters. It is the history of Jews in that land stretching back over 4,000 years that offends them which accounts for their threats against Israel when it declares its intention to make the Cave of the Patriarchs and Rachel’s Tomb national historic sites with the aim of restoring them and opening them to the world. The fact that all religions will have freedom of access to such sites is irrelevant to the Palestinians who have spent millions of dollars teaching their children that Jews came to the Land as usurpers less than a century ago, and that Abraham was a Muslim! In short, Israel could grant its enemies ever possible concession (and has), but that would not bring peace. Nothing short of Israel’s destruction will suffice. Truth is anti-Zionism becomes anti-Semitism when it reaches a certain pitch, and singling out Israel for condemnation and international sanction – out of all proportion to any other parties in the Middle East – is anti-Semitic, and not saying so is intellectually dishonest. So let’s call it what it is for those who arrogantly hold Israel to a standard of conduct to which no other nation in this world is held. Half a million men, women and children are slaughtered in Rwanda, and there is silence. The Chinese annihilate Tibetan culture, and there is silence. Tens of thousands of civilians are slaughtered in Chechnya, and there is silence. Egypt imprisons the leading democracy advocate in the Arab world after a phony trial, and not one single student group in America calls for divestiture from Egypt. Syria occupies Lebanon for a quarter century, chokes the life out of its democracy, assassinates its political leaders, effects a coup d’etat through its Hezbollah proxy, sends Islamic terrorists over its borders to kill Americans and Iraqis, and crushes whatever hope that country may have for a secure future, and not one single student organization on our campuses calls for divestiture from Syria. Iran uses its paramilitary basij thugs to beat up student demonstrators in the streets of Tehran and squeeze the life out of that county’s embryonic democratic movement, and there is silence. Saudi Arabia denies its women the most basic human rights, and bans any other religion from being practiced publicly on its soil, and yet no student group in America calls for divestiture from Saudi Arabia. These human rights violations and tragedies dwarf anything done by the Israelis, yet they fail to elicit the same degree of moral outrage that Israel evokes among its campus critics. In February 2010, Israel Ambassador to the UN Michael Oren was shouted down by Hamas supporters and radical Leftists, and forced to leave the podium at the University of California Irvine, but when the university pressed charges against the students, they argued that their right to free speech was being infringed. Apparently, Ambassador Oran is not entitled to that right as well. In Jenin, in April 2002, Israel was painted as the world’s pariah: “Nazis”, “butchers”, “conducting war crimes”, “surrounding the infant Jesus with Israeli tanks”, claims of 3,000 Palestinians being massacred, claims that Israelis poisoned the Palestinian water supply, and claims that Israel dumped Palestinian corpses into secret mass graves. A bishop in Copenhagen compared former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to King Herod. Newspapers across Europe, especially the BBC, “substantiated” these lies with reports of grisly deeds by Israeli soldiers. Palestinians went on international media networks with the active complicity of those networks in accusing Israel of murdering Palestinians for their body parts, lies later reinforced by respectable European newspapers, and even by a member of the British House of Lords in February 2010. The problem with all this is that no massacre occurred in Jenin! Less than a hundred armed terrorists were killed in Operation Defensive Shield, and almost as many Israeli soldiers were killed because they were ordered to go from house-to-house to avoid civilian casualties wherever possible. But that was of little consequence to those in the media and on our college campuses who condemned Israel for “unspeakable war crimes.” In Lebanon in 2006, Israel was condemned for violating Lebanese sovereignty with scant mention made of the thousands of Hezbollah missiles falling onto Israel’s civilian population centers, and Hezbollah’s use of Lebanese civilians as human shields. The same hypocrisy held true in the conclusions reached by the Goldstone Report on Operation Cast Lead which accepted the lies of Hamas as fact, disregarded Israeli commission findings, denied Israel’s right to defend itself, and condemned Israel for having conducted war crimes in Gaza. The Report made little mention of the 8,000 missiles fired at southern Israel, and minimized reports that Hamas had used civilians as human shields, and mosques and schools to conceal its weapons – not to mention the millions of leaflets dropped and cell phone calls made in Arabic by the Israeli military to provide warnings to Palestinians in targeted areas. When the UN hosted the Third World Conference Against Racism in Durban, the nations of the world had an opportunity to address the hatred that afflicts hundreds of millions of people, but they only found time to dwell on Israel accusing it of genocide, ethnic cleansing, racism, and apartheid while the genocides in Bosnia and the Sudan were barely mentioned. In the name of “human rights” and “justice”, these advocates and self-proclaimed “protectors of the Free World” decry any and every Israeli action and seek to punish it by conducting academic and cultural boycotts of Israel while Palestinian clerics call for the murder of Jews without eliciting any protest whatsoever. The Saudi and Egyptian media report on Jewish conspiracies causing 9/11, and run TV programs on Ramadan alleging blood libels, but there is no outcry against them for an international boycott. The bitter reality is that for Israel, international legal frameworks provide no protection and no hope for justice. Instead, these frameworks are used to exploit the rhetoric of human rights and morality to attack Israel. In that regard, I was asked in a recent lecture to explain why Israel was “ghettoizing” the Palestinians by constructing a security barrier in areas that served as transit points for terrorists entering the country. The questioner noted that, as a Jew, I should be more sensitive to the concept of a ghetto, and its dehumanizing effects on human beings. I responded that the security barrier was neither built for reasons of discrimination nor motivated by racism, but as a deterrent to protect the lives of Israelis from Palestinian suicide bombers and, in fact, it continues to accomplish its purpose. But the suggestion that Israel may have had racist motivations in constructing the barrier disturbed me because it is a recurring theme among major international bodies and on college campuses, so I asked the questioner why she had decided to sort Israel out for “special treatment?” After all, the security barrier that Israel has constructed to keep Palestinian suicide bombers out of its country is not unlike the security barrier constructed by the Saudis to keep the Yemeni jihadists out of their country; or the one that India has constructed along its borders with Pakistan, Kashmir and Bangladesh for the same reason; or the one that the Thais have constructed to keep the Malaysian jihadists out of their country, or the one that the U.S. is constructing to keep Mexican illegals out of our country, although I couldn’t recall the last time a Mexican self-detonated in Albuquerque, or fired missiles into Dallas or Houston. Over the past decade, the North Korean regime has starved an estimated three million of its own people; established thousands of slave labor camps, developed nuclear weapons in violation of every agreement it has ever made, and is seeking to sell them to the highest bidder. It has lobbed ballistic missiles over Japan, threatened a nuclear war of annihilation against its southern neighbor and supports itself primarily by dealing in drugs and counterfeit currency. And yet, 60% of Europeans regard Israel as more threatening than either North Korea or Iran – the second largest funder of jihadism in the world next to Saudi Arabia. So, if ever there was proof that there was something sinister lying behind Europe’s constant harping on Israel, and its support of Israel’s enemies other than pure anti-Semitism, this poll now answers it. Anti-Semitism has evolved from an irrational hatred or jealousy of Jews to an irrational hatred or jealousy of the Jewish State – Israel. Why is it that we don’t see demonstrations against Islamic dictatorships in London, Paris or Madrid? Why aren’t there demonstrations against the enslavement of millions of women who live without any legal protection? Why aren’t there demonstrations against the use of children as human bombs by jihadists? Why has there been no leadership in support of the victims of the Islamic dictatorship in Sudan? Why is there never any outrage against the acts of terrorism committed against Israel? Why is there no outcry by the Europeans against jihadism? Why don’t they defend Israel’s right to exist? And finally, why are the Europeans so obsessed with the two most stable democracies on earth (the United States and Israel), rather than with the world’s worst dictatorships? So many stupid and irresponsible comments have been written about Israel, that there aren’t any accusations left to level against her. At the same time, the press never discusses Syrian and Iranian interference in propagating violence against Israel; the indoctrination of children or the corruption of the Palestinian leadership, and the millions of dollars in international foreign aid that have been transferred into their private bank accounts, as was exposed by a former Palestinian leader in February 2010. And when reporting about victims, why is every Palestinian casualty reported as a tragedy while every Israeli victim is reported with disdain, if at all? This obsession with Israel represents a callous disregard for fundamental justice, and anti-Semitism cloaked as righteous indignation. For example, with the start of Ramadan (the Islamic month of fasting) in early September, Israeli forces manning West Bank check-points were instructed to avoid eating or smoking in front of Palestinians as a sign of respect, even as the Palestinians continue to use the Tomb of Joseph as a garbage dump and have urinated next to the Torah scrolls in the Cave of the Patriarchs. Further, on any given day, Israeli prisons are hosting Red Cross representatives, journalists, lawyers, prisoners’ advocates, as well as family members of convicted Palestinian prisoners, while Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas on Israeli soil, is being held in isolation and denied any and all visitation rights from lawyers, family and even the International Red Cross in violation of his human rights and international law. So, where is the international outcry for Shalit? And there’s more. Israel is constantly confronted with the demand that it must return Gaza and the West Bank to the Palestinians and the Golan Heights to Syria – areas seized during the 1967 Six-Day War. Why then do we never hear that same argument being raised against other nations? After World War II, Poland annexed 10% of historic Germany (East Prussia); Morocco controls the Western Sahara; Armenia has controlled 15% of neighboring Azerbaijan since 1994; Turkey has controlled half of Cyprus since its 1974 invasion; Russia has controlled the Kurile Islands off northern Japan since the end of World War II, and China has occupied Tibet since 1950. So, where is the international outcry demanding that these countries return lands they seized in war? Why is it that only Israel’s control over the West Bank merits international censure. Then there’s the demand that the Palestinians be allowed a right of return to Israel proper or at least fair compensation for having been displaced as a result of Israel’s War of Independence in 1948. Some 750,000 Jews left behind $300 billion in assets when they were forced to flee for their lives from Arab and Persian countries after the birth of the state of Israel. So why are similar demands not being made of the Syrians, the Iranians, the Iraqis, the Yemenis, and the Egyptians who displaced (or more specifically expelled) their Jews? In fact, I don’t recall any demands being made of any nation for compensation or allowing a right of return to any refugees displaced after any wars in modern times – except of course for those being made of Israel. Czechoslovakia expelled its Sudetenland Germans from their homes after World War II; the Poles expelled millions of Germans from East Prussia and absorbed that territory into Poland in 1945; thousands of Turkish Cypriots were displaced by Greek military forces in the 1960s and early 70s while Turkish forces displaced thousands of Greek Cypriots from Northern Cyprus after their 1974-1976 war; 450,000 ethnic Chinese were expelled from Vietnam between 1978-1979; the Bangladeshis expelled over three million Hindus in 1974; 250,000 Georgians were displaced from Abkhazia between 1993 and 1998, not to mention more than 500,000 ethnic Russians in Chechnya who were displaced during the First Chechen War in 1994-1996, and more than 800,000 Kosovar Albanians were expelled from Kosovo during the Kosovo War in 1998-1999. Somehow, I must have missed offers of a right of return or any compensation package being offered to these millions upon millions of persons displaced by wars – except in the case of Israel. And then there’s the issue relating to Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians in Gaza. Lauren Booth, sister-in-law of former British premier Tony Blair, entered Gaza aboard a protest boat and told Ynet News in Israel that Gaza was “the largest concentration camp in the world today” and a “humanitarian crisis on the scale of Darfur.” She was later photographed at a seemingly well-stocked grocery store in the so-called “concentration camp.” So, let’s consider how these Israeli “monsters” have behaved. Hamas has declared its intention to destroy Israel and murder every Jew residing there, and has fired over 8,000 missiles at southern Israel. In return, Israel is providing 70% of Gaza’s electrical power and, each week sends tons of food, fuel and humanitarian aid to an enemy whose entire rationale for existence is the extermination or subjugation of every Jew in Israel. During World War II, the Allies firebombed Dresden, obliterated German cities, and dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Talk about “proportional response!” Israel feeds its enemies! And finally, Israel has been condemned for retaliating against Hamas and Hezbollah for their missile attacks on Israel’s southern and northern civilian populations because, it is said, Israel is (and this is a direct quote from Human Rights Watch) “endangering non-combatants, using disproportionate force and committing crimes against humanity.” If Israel fired missiles into Gaza City, Sidon or Tyre, the world would be enraged, the UN Security Council would be called into Special Session, The US and EU would be threatening Jerusalem, and the media would be having a field-day. So why is it that when the Palestinians and the Lebanese fire missiles at Israeli civilians as their primary target, it is barely mentioned in the media, but when Israel retaliates against those missile sites in targeted bombings, it’s considered “disproportionate force” – all which leads to the real issue lurking behind the scenes here – our enemies’ tactical use of human shields. Why is criticism never leveled at Hamas or Hezbollah who regularly use children as human shields to protect their leaders and their weapons? In all the condemnation being heaped on Israel by the media and the Goldstone Report for Israel’s retaliatory strikes in Gaza, and before that in Lebanon during the Second Lebanon War (and indeed any future conflict), no one ever asks how any democracy can expect to win a war without “endangering civilians” especially when the enemy uses human shields as a tactical weapon to insulate itself from military strikes? Are we not handing our enemies an enormous tactical advantage? How can any free nation ever hope to win a future war against enemies who use human shields if it is condemned for “endangering civilians”? What “fair criticism” is not It is this absence of balance, this flagrant unforgivable deceit, not the criticisms of Israel that are most troubling. For those who argue that their right to “fair criticism” is being infringed, let them understand what “fair criticism” is not. It is not “fair criticism” to portray Israel’s presence on the West Bank as an illegal occupation, yet never utter a word of objection about Chinese, Serbian, Syrian, Turkish or Russian ethnic cleansing. It is not “fair criticism” to place the blame for Middle East violence at Israel’s doorstep while ignoring fourteen centuries of Sunni-Shiite hatred, the damage done to Arab society through decades of misrule by dictators and despots, the Koranic-inspired hatred of a Jewish state existing in the midst of the Islamic umma, and the immense risks that Israel took in withdrawing from Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza in 2005 not to mention the sacrifices that it continues to make in its quest for peace with the Palestinians. It is not “fair criticism” to accuse Israel of apartheid when it is the Arab world that preaches “Death to the Jews”, spreads anti-Semitic hatred from its mosques, teaches “martyrdom” in its schools and summer camps, and dances in the streets when jihadists succeed in murdering Israelis in their homes, pizza parlors, marketplaces, during their Passover Seders, and most notably in celebration of the 9/11 attacks. Demanding that good German Aryans boycott Jewish shops in Nazi Germany in 1935 is no different in its essence from demanding that good Western universities boycott the Jewish state in 2010. Injustice in any language is still injustice. It’s all part of the same poison that feeds on the fabric of human decency. If a 5-year old child can understand that slaughtering innocent people is wrong, then why can’t these campus student organizations, religious establishments, the UN, the international media, the Europeans, and the academics on American and British college campuses see it and voice their dissent? If we cannot tell the difference between a democratic Israel and an apartheid South Africa, or a jihadist from a peacemaker, then we are all parties to the greatest moral failure of our time – the inability to distinguish between those who defend basic moral values and respect the sanctity of a single human life, and those who are the enemies of such values by justifying the murder of the innocent in the name of some religious or ideological cause. We have every right to expect more from those who teach our children on the campuses of America or who preach to the faithful from their pews. Their positions of authority do not entitle them to foster anti-Semitism in the name of “justice” and “moral decency.” Until there is universal condemnation of the discriminatory double-standards applied to Israel, claims by self-righteous international organizations such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the UN General Assembly, UNRWA, the European Union and the International Court of Justice are more than meaningless. They are offensive and deceitful. Israel‘s willingness to make peace has made it into a target by an international community that blames Israel for Muslim violence around the world. As their thinking goes, if Israel would just do whatever it takes to make peace, then Muslim violence would stop not just in Israel, but in Paris, London, Malmo, Brussels, Manchester, Basra, Marseilles, Lyons and Kabul. Anyone with any understanding of world events knows that this is pure, unadulterated garbage. All of this can be summarized as follows – the most dangerous threat posed to the Western world is its inability or unwillingness to stand together against those who seek to destroy our way of life. If we do not, as a collective, take a firm stand against these defamations; if we do not stand behind Israeli democracy in its just and moral struggle against expanding jihadism; if we do not prevent this widening witch-hunt, the international arrest warrants for Israeli diplomats, the indictments against Israelis for war crimes in the Hague, the erosion in the UN, and the incitement against Israel; if we sit quietly and allow this insidious evil to flourish in our midst, then the legitimacy of the Free World’s own struggle against jihadism will most assuredly be undermined. ENDNOTE (1) Mitchell Bard notes that under apartheid in South Africa, whites and nonwhites lived in separate regions of the country. Nonwhites were prohibited from running businesses or professional practices in the white areas without permits. Nonwhites had separate amenities (i.e. beaches, buses, schools, benches, drinking fountains, restrooms). Nonwhites received inferior education, medical care, and other public services. Though they were the overwhelming majority of the population, nonwhites could not vote or become citizens. Mark Silverberg is a foreign policy analyst for the Ariel Center for Policy Research (Israel), a Contributing Editor for Family Security Matters and the New Media Journal and a member of Hadassah’s National Academic Advisory Board. His book “The Quartermasters of Terror: Saudi Arabia and the Global Islamic Jihad” and his articles have been archived under www.marksilverberg.com and www.analyst-network.com |
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Iran unveils first cruise missile before Ahmadinejad trip to Kabul
March 7, 2010DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

If the Iranians are to be believed, they have launched production of their first cruise missile, the short-range Nasr 1 (Victory 1), which was claimed by Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi Sunday, March 7 to be capable of destroying warships of up to 3,000 tons when launched from the ground or sea vessels.
The new weapon imperils US naval carriers and US and Israeli submarines stationed in the Persian Gulf.
The next Nasr version will be designed for launching from helicopters and submarines, said Vahidi.
Last month, Tehran inaugurated production lines for new Qaem (Rising) ground-to-air and Toofan (Storm) surface missiles.
debkafile‘s Iranian sources say Tehran and its allies Syria and Hizballah feel they are in the midst of rapid military and diplomatic momentum compared with American ineptness and Israeli inertia.
Sunday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suddenly announced he would pay an official visit to Kabul Monday and hold talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai. He prepared his visit 48 hours earlier by calling the September 11 attacks on the Twin Towers of New York “a big fabrication” and “a provocation” to justify America’s war on terror and invasion of Afghanistan.
The Iranian president has therefore embarked on a verbal offensive to undermine the legitimacy of the US military presence in Afghanistan in the eyes of its population, at a time when the new Afghan strategy composed by Barack Obama last year is in full swing with 30,000 extra US troops on the way.
In Kabul, he is expectedly to call stridently for an immediate pull-out of US troops.
Ahmadinejad used the same trick when he denied the Nazi Holocaust ever happened in order to question Israel’s right to exist.
This time, he is aiming at two targets: He arrives in Kabul at around the same time that US Vice President Joe Biden lands in Israel. Biden’s overriding mission (alongside the US envoy George Mitchell’s effort to revive Israel-Palestinian peace talks) is to make sure Israel does not exercise its military option against Iran’s nuclear facilities in view of the fading prospects of international harsh sanctions.
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman poured salt on Western wounds Sunday by asserting that “sanctions would not materialize” in view of the lack of consensus among the six powers working to halt Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israeli army chief in US for series of meetings
March 7, 2010Israeli army chief in US for series of meetings.
Israeli Chief of Staff Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi departed for a week-long working visit to the US on Sunday amid increasing speculation that Israel is gearing up for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Ashkenazi will hold numerous meetings with top US political and military officials while in Washington.
Last week it was reported that Israel had begun practicing rapid refueling, the type of which would only be used in a sustained aerial attack on a distant enemy.
That news corresponded with reports that Iran would have to move its uranium stockpile to less secure facilities in order to conduct planned enrichment, and that the Islamic Republic had nearly completed work on a massive missile launch site.
IHS Jane’s, a respected international defense journal, reported on Friday that the new launch site east of Tehran can be easily seen in satellite imagery, and is clearly large enough to launch Iran’s newly-introducted Simorgh missile.
The Simorgh is ostensibly a space-launch vehicle (SLV), but Israeli experts have noted that it could easily be converted into a long-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Jane’s believes that North Korea aided Iran in the construction of the new launch site.
Will US Vice President extend nuclear protection to Israel?
March 7, 2010Will US Vice President extend nuclear protection to Israel?.
US Vice President Joseph Biden will ask Israel’s leadership not to make a unilateral attack on Iranian nuclear targets. Biden will arrive in Israel tomorrow for a three-day visit, during which he will give a speech at Tel Aviv University.
US administration officials compare the importance of Biden’s planned speech to the speech by President Barack Obama at Cairo University last year, which repositioned US-Arab relations.
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During the speech, Biden is expected to confirm the parameters underpinning the US-Israeli relationship, including the US’s deep and unwavering commitment to Israel’s security. However, the key question is whether he will publicly declare that the US is committed to spreading its nuclear umbrella to cover Israel; in other words, if the US will threaten to strike back with nuclear weapons if Iran attacks or tries to attack Israel with unconventional arms.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently hinted that the US would spread its nuclear umbrella over friendly countries in the region, but she did not explicitly mention Israel. Observers believe that a public declaration of such a commitment by Biden, in Israel, may be the US administration’s strongest weapon to persuade Israel to stand down, especially since Biden is arriving in Jerusalem with a particularly weak hand.
The Obama administration, both publicly and through diplomatic channels, has repeatedly made the argument against an Israeli attack on Iran on the grounds that the noose of sanctions against Iran is steadily being tightened. An Israeli diplomat once described this as “the sanctions mantra”. However, the push for sanctions, which was supposed to peak at the US Security Council this week, is flagging.
An Israeli sources said that the US was trying to square the circle in its efforts to obtain international authorization for sanctions against Iran. Strong sanctions with an enforcement regime, will not obtain Chinese support in the Security Council, and probably not Russian support either. Both countries have veto rights, and at this stage it is unclear whether Beijing would abstain in a vote on strong sanctions. Current Security Council member Brazil also refuses to cooperate with the US. On the other hand, token or weak sanctions, which the Security Council might pass, will not persuade the Iran government to stop its uranium enrichment program.
Many analysts believe that only hitting at Iran’s Achilles Heel – sanctions to block the export to Iran of gasoline and other refined fuel products – would force Teheran to yield, but have no chance of passage by the Security Council.
Under these circumstances, only an unequivocal public declaration by Biden that the US will cover Israel with its nuclear umbrella might persuade the Israeli government and public that this is preferable to a military adventure whose results are far from assured and whose consequences, such as attacks by long-range rockets by Hizbullah from Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza into Israel’s cities, could be catastrophic.
Nonetheless, a clear statement to cover Israel with the US nuclear umbrella would mean that the Obama administration has basically given up and implies that there is no way to stop Iran’s nuclear armament program. Some analysts believe that the Obama administration has already reached this conclusion and that the effort to reach a sanctions package is primarily aimed at calming Israel and to persuade it not to attack Iran.
Whether or not Biden raises the nuclear umbrella option, there is no doubt that he will not repeat his statement of July 4, 2009, in an ABC interview, which effectively gave Israel a green light to launch a military assault on Iran, when he said that Israel has a “sovereign right” to attack Iran to protect itself.
Biden will therefore sing a new song on his visit to Israel. His comments will echo those of US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, who, during last month’s visit to Israel, said that an Israeli attack on Iran “would be a big, big, big, problem for all of us.” With all due respect to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a statement by the Vice President, with the full weight of the White House behind, is a whole new order of magnitude.
The Associated Press: Iran says it has started cruise missile production
March 7, 2010The Associated Press: Iran says it has started cruise missile production.
Then nominee for defense minister, Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, delivers his speech in an open session of parliament in Tehran, Iran, in this Sept. 1, 2009 file photo. Vahidi announced on state TV Sunday March 7, 2010 a new production line of highly accurate, short range cruise missiles capable of evading radar. The missile named Nasr 1 (Victory) will be capable of destroying targets up to 1,000 tons in size according to Vahidi. Iran frequently makes announcements about new advances in military technology that cannot be independently verified.
TEHRAN, Iran — Iran said Sunday it has launched a new production line of highly accurate, short range cruise missiles, which would add a new element to the country’s already imposing arsenal.
Gen. Ahmad Vahidi told Iranian state TV that the cruise missile, called Nasr 1, would be capable of destroying targets up to 3,000 tons in size.
The minister said the missile can be launched from the surface but would eventually be modified to be fired from helicopters and submarines.
The world is already concerned about Iran’s military capabilities, especially the implications of its nuclear program. The U.S. and some of its allies, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency, say Iran is apparently trying to produce nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies.
The West is considering stiffer sanctions against Iran to try to force it to halt uranium enrichment, a process that has civilian uses but can be also used for nuclear arms if the uranium is enriched over 90 percent.
Iran also has an array of missiles from short to medium range that could hit targets including Israel, U.S. military bases in the region and much of Europe.
Iran frequently makes announcements about new advances in military technology that cannot be independently verified.
Gen. Vahidi said the production of the cruise missiles, which took two years to develop, showed that sanctions on Iran have failed. He said the cruise missiles would strengthen Iran’s naval power.
Cruise missiles are highly advanced, usually subsonic rocket-powered weapons that can hug the ground and hit targets with great precision. U.S. forces used large numbers of cruise missiles in its attack on Baghdad in 2002. Most were launched from warships in the Persian Gulf.
The state TV showed a video of boxes in a warehouse containing several missiles. It also showed footage of Iran’s cruise missile test in 2007. That missile was apparently imported.
Iran began a military self-sufficiency program in 1992, under which it produces a large range of weapons, including tanks, missiles, jet fighters, unmanned drone aircraft and torpedoes.
What’s brewing between the US and Israel?
March 7, 2010What’s brewing between the US and Israel?.
Photo by: AP
05/03/2010 21:55
A policeman stationed at Ben-Gurion Airport’s passport control lately could be forgiven for thinking that Israel has become exactly what many have joked it is over the years: the 51st US state.
In the past two months alone, CIA Director Leon Panetta, National Security Adviser Jim Jones, NSC strategist Dennis Ross, Deputy Secretaries of State Jim Steinberg and Jack Lew, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen have all passed through Ben-Gurion. Topping them all off is the expected visit next week to Jerusalem of Vice President Joe Biden, the highest-ranking US official to visit since Barack Obama was sworn in as president 14 months ago.
Trips have also been made in the opposite direction.
Last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was in Washington for talks with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Biden. Next week, Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi will be there for another round of talks with Mullen, just three weeks after the two last met. At the end of the month, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will travel to the US for meetings with the administration and top legislators on Capital Hill and to attend AIPAC’s annual policy conference.
The increased dialogue leaves no doubt that something is brewing between Israel and the US. The talks have two focuses – an attempt to restart peace negotiations with the Palestinians and to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue.
While it might not be saying it, Israel is disappointed with the progress of the international community’s attempts to impose a new round of sanctions on Iran. On Monday, Clinton – in direct contradiction to earlier statements by the administration that the sanctions would be passed by the end of March at the latest – said it could take several more months before sanctions are imposed.
While the time frame is something Israel can likely live with – on the condition that Iran does not decide to go for the breakout stage and begin enriching uranium to military-grade levels – it still maintains a substantial disagreement with the Obama administration regarding the type of sanctions that need to be imposed.
On Monday, for example, Netanyahu repeated his long-standing call for sanctions on the Iranian energy sector and specifically on its oil exports. Israel is also in favor of clamping sanctions on the import of refined fuel to Iran. Clinton and Gates have argued against such sanctions, which they say will hurt ordinary Iranian citizens.
Despite these differences, Israel is likely to give the Americans more time.
JERUSALEM’S STRATEGY is quite simple, and dates back to the beginning of Obama’s term when he decided to engage Iran diplomatically. Israel told Obama at the time that while it did not believe the engagement would work, it was willing to let him try. Once the engagement failed and Obama decided to ratchet up to sanctions, Israel expressed support, but once again warned that like the engagement, the sanctions also needed to be capped with a time limit.
This is all being done with the awareness that the likelihood of Obama attacking Iran should the sanctions fail is slim. But, by playing ball with the international efforts and not working to undermine them, Israel is increasing the support it will have if all else fails and it decides to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. This way it will be able to say to the world: “We let you try everything and now we don’t have a choice.”
Looking at the two precedents – Israel’s alleged bombing of the Syrian reactor in September 2007 and the bombing of the Osirak reactor in Iraq 26 years earlier – Israel will be best not asking Washington for permission to strike Iran. In 1981, it came under criticism which later turned into praise. And in 2007, many within the US administration believed that Bush would not approve a strike on Syria – or Iran for that matter – should Israel ask for a green light.
A senior member of Bush’s administration recalled recently that in 2006, the president began considering possible military action against Sudan to stop the genocide in Darfur. In the end though, close advisers told Bush that he could not possibly attack a third Islamic country after he was already waging war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The same logic applied to the chances for a US strike on Iran or Syria.
As a result, when Israel has to make its decision on Iran, it will likely be best off copying the two previous models and refraining from asking for permission.
While far more difficult, an operation against Iran is believed to be possible even if Israel does not receive a green light from the US to fly over Iraq. Embarking on such a mission entails a great deal of risks – will the IAF’s planes reach their targets, will jets be shot down, will the bombs penetrate the fortified underground nuclear facilities and more. Flying over Iraq without US permission would add one more danger to the list.
Meanwhile, the other side is not sitting by idly waiting for Israel to make its move, but rather is actively preparing for an attack. This was evident by last week’s meeting in Damascus between Syrian President Bashar Assad, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, as well as by the summit in Teheran between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad chief Ramdam Salah.
While each official made his usual declarations – Ahmadinejad said “a Middle East without Zionism is a divine promise” – it is highly probable that the talks also focused on practical matters of creating a radical bloc to retaliate against any Israeli or US act of aggression against Iran. There are also concerns that Iran will activate Hizbullah as a means of diverting Israel’s attention away from its nuclear progress, and as an attempt to ward off additional sanctions.
2010 shows the highest percentage of recruits joining IDF combat units in the history of the IDF
March 6, 201076% of Recruits Request Combat Positions.

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76% of Recruits Request Combat Positions
The current IDF draft is characterized once more by an increase in the desire to join combat units. According to data publicized on Wednesday (Mar. 3) by the Head of the Human Resources Directorate, Maj. Gen. Avi Zamir, at a conference in honor of soldiers injured during Operation Cast Lead, 76% of the March recruits expressed the desire to be deployed in combat units, as opposed to 73% in March 2009. This is the highest percentage of all times of soldiers expressing this desire.
The great demand also presents a few challenges to the Human Resources Directorate. There is, for example, a shortage of soldiers who will serve in combat supporting positions such as cooks, technicians, mechanics, drivers and others.
“We are very satisfied with the data of the upcoming draft, which represents a peak of all times,” said Maj. Gen. Zamir at the ceremony. “This is an excellent youth, with the desire to contribute in the most significant places.”
The March draft will begin on Sunday (Mar. 7) with the new Golani Brigade recruits




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