Posted tagged ‘Venezuela and Europe’

Can Sakharov save the Venezuelan opposition?

October 27, 2017

Can Sakharov save the Venezuelan opposition? Venezuela News and ViewsDaniel Duquenal, October 26, 2017

It is just heart breaking that the incompetence of the opposition in handling its internal squabbles is letting us no other choices but to wait for hard sanctions as our only way out.

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No.

At least not in its current form.

The day started in a stupendous note: the European parliament awarded its Sakharov prize to the Venezuelan opposition, namely the National Assembly that the regime has voided, the political prisoners, and the youth killed during the first half of 2017.

The rest of today’s news was not so good. The regime of course dismissed the award as a direct attempt by these nasty Europeans to rekindle violence in Venezuela. The cynicism to even say such a thing goes beyond the Cuban training of these people. They are thoroughly rottenly vile.

But the regime also advanced the district mayor election to December 10, taking advantage of the opposition disarray, in a tight schedule that leaves no chance for the opposition to even name its candidates or blurb out some campaign. The regime, we know now, had long ago decided who was going to be mayor and where.  They might as well proceed to name them so we can save ourselves the anguish of an election. That the rest of the world is not going to recognize these elections is the least of the regime’s worries.

And for good measure the victor of Zulia, Guanipa, who refused to swear in his job in front of the illegal and unrecognized constituent assembly has been stripped of his victory and a new election is called for Zulia.He will not be allowed to run again.

It is now clear that the refusal to hold any election last year was due to the surprise of the regime loss in December 2015. They needed to regroup and reorganize the control of the populace and the electoral system. So we had CLAP food program, and Tarjeta de La Patria which allowed the regime to label the said populace with home address and all.  Then it would be much easier to manipulate electoral rolls, etc, etc.  Once ready they went ahead and since it worked so well they are now in a rush to organize all sorts of elections before the opposition recovers. Make no mistake, the goal of the regime is 90% at the very least of all elective office. The few point are just a pretense number for propaganda purposes.

And the opposition is obliging. Let’s look at today snippets.

Henri Falcon loser of Lara, blaming the abstention without wondering why there was such an abstention in Lara, went ahead to say that he would worry if Capriles were to be president of Venezuela.  I would worry too, but the detail here is that he was Capriles campaign manager three years ago. So now he tells us…  Credibility gap anyone?  For good measure he also said that the young folks that run Voluntad Popular, and allegedly Primero Justicia, are immature.  Me thinks he is ready to go back to chavismo for good.

Newest punching ball Ramos Allup made an elaborate press conference where he told among other things that Capriles has “glandular responses” to what he does not like. He tried to convince us that the had nothing to do with the 4 AD governors swearing in and that they “self-expelled themselves” from AD according to article X, alinea Z.  And some unnecessary gossip to hide, I presume, the gossip about his own relatives finance activities.  The fact of the matter is that he is not going to take sanctions against the gang of 4, meaning that he is going to let the dust settle some and then reconcile with them.  In short, he finished off the opposition alliance MUD.

Meanwhile a group of losers, of people that have not been able to make any significant mark in Venezuelan politics for the last 20 years signed an outrageous document basically approving of the gang of 4.  So there you have it, the regime surefootedly establishing its “loyal” opposition. Communist countries have done that, a famous example being Poland with “opposition” parties that voted 99% of the time for the commies.  I have also read analysts that I know are not chavistas entertaining the thought that the regime did win the election. Forgetting that the polling stations remained open illegally for up to three hours and Jorge Rodriguez himself saying that half an hour more and they’d gotten Zulia. The immense stupidity of some is truly awesome.

But the very worst for me is the silence of the “abstention party”. Now that they claim that the defeat of the opposition was due to the discontent of its supporters (read: we the abstencionistas), we are expecting them to tell us what is our next step. The only thing we heard was bravos for the in exile court first rulings that are totally unenforceable in Venezuela today.  So?  Maria Corina Machado? Any concrete ideas?[crickets chirping].

So yes, I wonder if the Sakharov prize is going to do any good. I suspect that there will be a fight as to who goes to Europe to receive it…….  If they had any decency they would chose a freed political prisoner, a torture victim and an exiled one to form the trio going to the European Parliament. But what do I know…..

But the regime would be well advised not to crow too much. It is leaving no other option to the world but to step in directly. Nobody wants a “stable” narco state. Today Spain arrested two corrupt officials of PDVSA, ministers of Chavez…  ISIS danger is soon going to be over, time to turn attention to other criminals.

It is just heart breaking that the incompetence of the opposition in handling its internal squabbles is letting us no other choices but to wait for hard sanctions as our only way out.

Negotiation, not dialogue (or negation) [Venezuela]

September 24, 2017

Negotiation, not dialogue (or negation), Venezuela News and ViewsDaniel Duquenal, September 23, 2017

The fact of the matter is that the regime is on the defensive. The sanctions are starting to work. The latest sign that credit is withheld on gasoline import is that there are growing lines at gas stations. If it is true that the forced election of the constituent assembly had a perverse way to boost provisionally the regime it is also true that one month and a half has passed since the assembly was [seated] and there is no evidence that it is doing something positive to solve the problems of the country.  The regime is in denial but the truth is that the world that counts is united against the regime.  Russia and China, when all is said, may have a limited role since what will bring down the regime is its economic failure. Russia cannot save Maduro with bombers like in Syria…

Meanwhile the week ended with Canada imposing sanctions on 40 high ranking dictatorship personnel.  The symbolism does not escape us, the 40 thieves of Ali Baba finally starting to suffer consequences.

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This past week has been eventful. It started with a new attempt at dialogue that nobody but the regime wants, to the strong words against Venezuela dictatorship from TrumpMacronSantosMichetti, and more, taking place at the UN general assembly.

That dinner table was certainly better supplied than those of Caracas

There were all sorts of activities during the festivities, like Trump hosting a dinner for the heads of a few Latin American states highly critical of Venezuela’s dictatorship.  Venezuela was mentioned in several speeches at the tribune, invariably condemnatory, except from the usual suspects like Evo’s speech, very poorly attended for that matter.  We even have the money quote from Trump, who may be wrong and obnoxious a lot of the time, but when he is right, he is right, hands down:

“The problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented,
but that socialism has been faithfully implemented”

These expected actions against Maduro’s regime are what explains why a few days ago the regime asked for “dialogue” with the opposition, to be held in Santo Domingo.

Certainly, as it has become usual, the regime starts dialogue as a dilatory instrument to bring down Venezuelan opposition when the going gets too intense. But this time around it is different and the regime is not going to get once again a free pass: months of protests, political prisoners and political murders cannot be dismissed by the world democracies. What in last century would have been considered as collateral effect cannot be ignored anymore in the XXI century.

As usual a volley of declarations and counter declarations has been launched since the “dialogue” started. No point going over the confusing details.  The summary is as follow:

– all seems to indicate that it is the regime that this time around truly asked for a new dialogue and went out of their [way] to effect it, as the opposition this time around was not in the mood (at least not as long as the regime fulfills at least one of its previous commitments).

– if the regime succeeded in bringing back allies like the Dominican Republic to host the talks, and Zapatero ready for a new failure, it did not go as planned. First, the opposition announced that it would talk only to Santo Domingo president. Second, that a new set of countries would be guarantors of any new talk, not anymore the more complaint countries or devious double agents like Zapatero. e.g., now at least France will be attending for Europe.

– before the talks the head of the National Assembly, Julio Borges, came from a very successful tour in Europe’s main capitals (Paris, Berlin, Madrid and London, only Rome missing, for now).  He received full support from those who matter: Macron, Merkel, Rajoy and May. On the other hand Venezuela sent its foreign minister to do a counter tour and he was only receive by foreign ministers at best, and scolded each time.

– even though everywhere Arreaza was told that the constituent assembly would not recognized, the regime keeps trying to force its recognition by sending the president of that illegal assembly as its chief negotiation in Santo Domingo. To little effect so far we must say.

– eventually, in front of a losing strategy, as more and more inside the opposition state that there should be no talk until AFTER the state elections, the regime has started sabotaging the process with all sorts of manipulations and lies. The thing here is that the radicals inside the regime do not want any negotiation and the opposition, and the world, only wants a negotiation. Not a dialogue, a negotiation. There is a difference.

The fact of the matter is that the regime is on the defensive. The sanctions are starting to work. The latest sign that credit is withheld on gasoline import is that there are growing lines at gas stations. If it is true that the forced election of the constituent assembly had a perverse way to boost provisionally the regime it is also true that one month and a half has passed since the assembly was sat and there is no evidence that it is doing something positive to solve the problems of the country.  The regime is in denial but the truth is that the world that counts is united against the regime.  Russia and China, when all is said, may have a limited role since what will bring down the regime is its economic failure. Russia cannot save Maduro with bombers like in Syria…

But at least the regime has one satisfaction: the “dialogue” has divided deeply the opposition, before the crucial elections of next months. Those elections will be fraudulent and more, but going in disperse order with too many promoting abstention will not help. For some reason the lies of the regime about dozens of “secret” meetings, those that the opposition is willing to recognize the constituent assembly (without describing what the opposition will get in exchange) have found a wide public of, well, hysterical oppos. Then again the resurrection of Rosales or Zambrano as envoys to Santo Domingo has not been a PR coup for the MUD…..

So we have all sorts of people that preach that we should not go to vote because this would give some legitimacy to the regime. True, but in part at best for the regime. International opinion at the government levels will not be swayed by an election where harsh handed tactics of the regime will be closely monitored by their embassies.

But that saddest part of it all is that the abstention party virulence, from Maria Corina Machado to twitter warriors of the nebulous “resistencia”, is not offering any other strategy. They do not want to vote yet they are not telling us what to do, and even less, are not willing to place themselves in the front lines of whatever it is that they have in mind. Well, Maria Corina would go on the front line, but she is unable to say where the fucking front line is.

I do not know where all of this will lead us. We cannot even be certain whether the regional elections will be held. We can be sure that the regime is following a close pulse of the electoral mood, and in particular the abstention movement who thank the deities seems to peter some already.  The point is that the regime must balance the risk of losing badly the regional elections but proving to the world that a democratic transition is coming, or stick to a goal of at least 40% governors, no trickery spared, no political violence too gross.  In short, a lose lose of sorts for the regime, with a radical and radicalizing constituent assembly which nobody seems really in control of.

Meanwhile the week ended with Canada imposing sanctions on 40 high ranking dictatorship personnel.  The symbolism does not escape us, the 40 thieves of Ali Baba finally starting to suffer consequences.

And Europe sanctions are expected any time soon…………