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Syrian Gambit: US at Pains to Create ‘Another Afghanistan’ for Russia

October 18, 2015

Syrian Gambit: US at Pains to Create ‘Another Afghanistan’ for Russia

20:36 18.10.2015 (updated 20:37 18.10.2015)

Source: Syrian Gambit: US at Pains to Create ‘Another Afghanistan’ for Russia

There are clear signs that the Pentagon will try to create “another Afghanistan” for Russia in Syria, US political analyst Phil Butler told Sputnik.

Chess
© Photo: pixabay

The Syrian chess game has evidently entered into its critical phase: Vladimir Putin has thwarted the West’s plan to overthrow Assad at every turn, prompting a fierce outcry from Washington’s war hawks.In September 2014, Kenneth M. Pollack, a former CIA intelligence analyst, proposed a plan entitled “An Army to Defeat Assad.” The CIA analyst envisaged the creation of a US Syrian proxy army that would take over the Syrian government forces (and deal a blow to Islamic State). However, the toppling of Bashar al-Assad was marked by Pollack as the overriding priority.

“Once the new army gained ground, the opposition’s leaders could formally declare themselves to represent a new provisional government. The United States and its allies could then extend diplomatic recognition to the movement, allowing the US Department of Defense to take over the tasks of training and advising the new force – which would now be the official military arm of Syria’s legitimate new rulers,” Pollack elaborated.

In this Oct. 12, 2011 file photo, supporters of the Syrian government hold a pro-Russian banner to show their support for President Bashar Assad and to thank Russia and China for blocking a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Syria for its brutal crackdown, during a demonstration in Damascus, Syria.
© AP Photo/ Muzaffar Salman, File

In January 2015, the Pentagon announced that it kicked off a plan aimed at training Assad’s opposition fighters, strikingly similar to that offered by Pollack in September 2014.So, nothing hinted at any trouble until September 30, when Russia suddenly threw a wrench in Washington’s ingenious plan.

“To get to the root of the current crisis in Syria and the Middle East overall, we must look at US policy overall,” Germany-based American political analyst Phil Butler explained in an exclusive interview to Sputnik.

“The current divisions within Syria and Northern Iraq are to a degree fabricated. Secular, religious, and even tribal differences in this region have been leveraged for centuries to divide Syria, as well as other nations in the region. You’ve mentioned Ken Pollack, and appropriately, I might add. Pollack, who’s held many official positions within the Washington policy making establishment, is actually one of the authors of chaos in this region. Discussing such “bred” academics is a deep well, but suffice it to say the division of Yugoslavia, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab Spring overall, the Georgia war, and the current Ukraine mess are all facets of the same flawed gem of US hegemony,” the analyst told Sputnik.

According to Butler, the current mission in Syria is not intended to be a splintering as we saw with Kosovo, in the Balkans.

“As for the ‘plan’ in Syria, I believe there were ‘contingencies’ mapped out. As amoral as these schemes may be, they are not concocted by idiots. Contingency 1, in my view, was the literal overthrow of Assad. Vladimir Putin’s moves, Russia’s, have thwarted this potential at every turn. Contingency number two obviously involves another Yugoslavia in the making. And finally, overall tribalism and chaos in the region helps the US, and particularly Israel gain strength in the region by weakening neighbors,” the political analyst stressed.

Rebel fighters from the First Battalion under the Free Syrian Army take part in a military training on June 10, 2015, in the rebel-held countryside of the northern city of Aleppo
© AFP 2015/ BARAA AL-HALABI
Sweet Harmony: Syrian Opposition ‘Sharing Experience’ With Jihadists

Meanwhile, Western reputable media sources have reported of an upcoming offensive on Raqqa, ISIL’s “capital,” the Pentagon is preparing to launch along with its Arab and Kurdish military allies.However, Middle East Eye reported on October 14 that there is no sign of such preparations on the ground: “The US-led anti-IS coalition dropped 50 tons of weapons to the newly created Syrian Arab Coalition on Monday in the Hasakah province, in order to avoid angering Turkey. But so far, no US weapons can be seen on the frontlines close to Raqqa, nor any sign of rebel troop preparations.”

“The reason we have not seen these latest weapons shipments being used, is the complexity of strategy on the ground has changed. No standing force, Al-Nusra, ISIL, or other jihadists put together, could withstand Russian air power. I believe we are about to see Assad’s opposition morph their strategy to full guerrilla warfare as was the case in Afghanistan. We will see fewer conventional “offensives” in the future, and far more localized attacks, the Pentagon will try and create another Afghanistan,” Butler explained commenting on the issue.

However, in contrast to the US’ covert war against the USSR in Afghanistan, there were no US jet fighters in the region and thus far, no threat of a direct confrontation between the two global powers.

Today, there are many military “actors” in the skies of Syria and Iraq. Does it mean the Pentagon’s Afghani strategy may unexpectedly transform into a direct confrontation between US/NATO and Russia?

“As for the threat of direct confrontation between the US and Russia in Syria, the possibility does exist. In this case however, I believe such a confrontation is actually another contingency for Washington,” the American political analyst underscored.

“While US military doctrine these days is set to avoid direct confrontation, on the other hand America and citizens in the “West” have been primed for it. Consider that most Americans, have been brainwashed substantially to believe Vladimir Putin has already invaded half a dozen countries. As crazy as this sounds, pretend you live in small American town and you listen to CNN or Fox before bed every night. This potential, to be dragged into a wide conflagration set up by Washington, is why you see Vladimir Putin making very conservative and precise moves on the stage,” he told Sputnik.

“Having said this, given all we have seen since 9/11, it would take a fairly major incident to excuse such a confrontation,” Phil Butler concluded.

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Russia peaceful, defence will drive growth: Putin

October 14, 2015

Russia peaceful, defence will drive growth:

Putin 13 October 2015 Kremlin.ru

Source: Russia peaceful, defence will drive growth: Putin | Russia & India Report

Defence cooperation with partners and military hardware sales will drive Russian growth, even while Russia’s foreign policy remains completely peaceful, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a wide-ranging interview with Rossiya-1 television channel presenter Vladimir Solovyov. President Putin particularly spoke about the excellent defence cooperation with India, giving the example of the BrahMos missile, and other joint ventures, creating a “high-tech production sector” in India. The interview was conducted after the massive bomb explosions in Ankara over the weekend rekindled fears of increased terrorist strikes in the wake of the Russian aerial raids on Syria.

 

Vladimir Solovyov: The defence industry will drive growth?Vladimir Putin: “Yes, that’s right. This is the way things work all around the world; in the United States, Europe, China and India.

We built the BrahMos missile together with our Indian partners, for example, and developed a whole new sector in Indian industry. India’s scientists worked very actively. This was a real step towards developing a high-tech production sector in India. Our Indian partners are very happy and have proposed developing this programme further, and we intend to do so.”

Despite defence cooperation and military hardware sales set to restore the Russian economy on a growth trajectory, Russia’s foreign policy has always been a peaceful one, the President said. He also denied any ambitions of taking over smaller former Soviet Republics as has been widely speculated.

“Russia has a peaceful foreign policy, and this is no exaggeration. If you look at the political map of the world and Russia’s place on it, it is obvious that we have no need for others’ territory or natural resources. We have enough resources of our own and we have no need for war or conflict with anyone else,” President Putin said.

“In 1990, it was Russia that started the divorce process between the republics making up the former Soviet Union. We showed good will and gave these countries their independence. This happened not as a result of civil war or conflict, but was a consensus decision, and Russia’s stance played a central role in this decision.

We therefore have no desire to restore the empire or rebuild the Soviet Union, but we do have a duty to defend Russia’s independence and sovereignty. This is what we have been doing and will continue to do.”

“As for the economic dimension, coming back to what I said before, we drew up the plans to modernise and rearm our country’s armed forces with the most up-to-date systems several years ago. It was 10 years ago now that we started working on these plans and formulating the tasks ahead. Let me say again that this was all about natural replacement of aging weapon systems,” the Russian President said in a rare interview.

“Another circumstance I want to note in this respect is that all of this work involves advanced technology, and the tasks we are carrying out in the defence industry will push us into developing not just applied but also fundamental science and will have benefits for the entire economy.”

Referring to the sanctions which have hurt the Russian economy and increased the urgency to look for import substitution, President Putin said, “Let me say a few words about import replacement in this respect. We purchased abroad many of the components we were using in the defence industry. But it was always clear that importing more sensitive components and technology and even spare parts for the defence industry was not a very far-sighted policy, to put it mildly.

Having petrodollars made it easy to buy things abroad of course, but we need to develop science and industry here in Russia. In this sense, the import replacement that our partners’ actions have pushed us into is actually precisely what our country needs. We are therefore not creating problems for our economy, but on the contrary, are raising it to new levels of technological progress.”

Vladimir Solovyov: The terrorist attack in Turkey raises questions that many are asking themselves now in Russia. We are fighting terrorism, which threatens our country too, and are trying to stop it before it reaches our borders. But are we ready here at home to resist attempts to once again bring suffering and death to our soil?

Vladimir Putin: “If you think about it, we have already become used to hearing of a terrorist attack here, a terrorist attack there. Unfortunately, we have not yet got rid of this threat. Back at the time when I took the decision to launch operations against international terrorist groups following the attack on Dagestan, many people said to me that we cannot do this for all sorts of reasons, said there is a risk the terrorists will do this, try that.

I came to the conclusion that if we fear that the terrorists will so something, they will definitely do it. We must take pre-emptive action. Of course, there are risks, but let me say that these risks existed anyway, even before we began our operations in Syria.”

Reliable partners get Russian technology

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China Expanding Regional Nuclear Forces

October 14, 2015

China Expanding Regional Nuclear Forces New cruise, ballistic missiles increase danger of war, report says

BY:
October 14, 2015 5:00 am

Source: China Expanding Regional Nuclear Forces – Washington Free Beacon

China is developing a nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missile as part of a military buildup of both its regional and long-range nuclear forces, according to a forthcoming congressional commission report.

A final draft of the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission presents a dire picture of advancing Chinese military capabilities and declining relations with the United States.

“U.S.-China security relations continued to deteriorate in 2015,” the report concludes. “China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and its unremitting cyber espionage against the United States were the key drivers of growing distrust.”

The military buildup of high-tech weapons “makes clear that China seeks the capability to limit the U.S. military’s freedom of movement in the Western Pacific,” the report says.

On the regional nuclear buildup, the report says “China appears to be pursuing a theater nuclear capability in addition to the strategic nuclear capability it has maintained since it became a nuclear state in the 1960s.”

The growth in regional nuclear forces poses new dangers for a future conflict in the increasingly volatile Asia Pacific region, a zone where China added to destabilization through disputed maritime claims while seeking to drive U.S. forces out of the region.

“In a conflict, China’s maturing theater nuclear capability could provide it with the means to flexibly employ nuclear weapons to deescalate or otherwise shape the direction of conflict,” the report said.

Additionally, the commission report warns that the U.S. government’s passive approach to “massive” Chinese cyber attacks is likely to encourage further damaging cyber strikes on both government and private computer networks.

“The United States has relied on a passive defense, and the U.S. government has failed to create an overall strategy to counter the increasingly sophisticated cyber attacks on some of its most valuable technology,” the report said.

Among its recommendations, the report calls for Congress to pass laws allowing U.S. companies to conduct counter cyber attacks to punish Chinese and other cyber foes by stealing back or destroying stolen data or using cyber attacks to damage hackers and their gear. U.S. law currently prohibits such counterattacks.

China’s high-technology military buildup also includes an array of space weaponry that indicates Beijing is preparing for space warfare against U.S. satellites in a future conflict, according to the report.

A copy of the draft report was obtained by the Washington Free Beacon from the commission staff. The final report is not expected to change sharply from the draft and will be released formally next month, a spokesman said.

The report said that in the three years since coming to power, Chinese supreme leaders Xi Jinping made significant progress in consolidating power, including a purge in the military ostensibly aimed at countering corruption that also is part of police power consolidation.

China’s space weaponry includes two types of anti-satellite missiles for attacking low-earth and high-earth orbit, small orbiting attack satellites, electronic jammers, lasers, and cyber weapons capable of taking control of satellites.

“As China’s developmental counterspace capabilities become operational, China will be able to hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime,” the report states.

The annual report for the first time provides a detailed assessment of China’s large-scale nuclear and missile buildup that while remaining small in number is growing increasingly lethal and difficult to counter.

Still regarded as a minimal nuclear deterrent of some 250 warheads that would be used only after China is attacked by nuclear arms, the Chinese are developing new cruise and ballistic missiles to target U.S. forces in Asia and other regional states, as well as the continental United States.

The commission report also raises new questions about China’s so-called “no-first-use” doctrine of not being the first to use nuclear arms in a conflict. The report says Beijing appears to be reconsidering the doctrine and adopting a “launch-on-warning” system used by the United States and other nuclear powers. That doctrine calls for launching nuclear missiles and bombers before first being attacked.

China’s recent military parade marking the 70th anniversary of end of World War II included several new missiles, including the DF-26 intermediate-range missile that can be armed with both nuclear and conventional warheads.

“The parade highlighted the pace and sophistication of China’s missile modernization, and signaled to the world China’s seriousness about enhancing both its nuclear and conventional missile capabilities and its ability to hold adversary forces at greater distance and greater risk,” the report says.

Regarding the new cruise missile, the report states that China’s military is likely developing a nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missile called the CJ-20 that will be outfitted on H-6 bombers, each of which can carry six of the missiles.

The long-range CJ-20 is a variant of the current DH-10 land-attack cruise missiles that is also nuclear-capable and “enhances the lethality of China’s air-launched cruise missile arsenal,” the report says.

The missile sharply increases the range of its missile forces to include the U.S. island of Guam, a major military hub.

“A nuclear-capable CJ-20 would indicate China is developing new, air-delivered theater nuclear strike capabilities, in addition to its formidable ballistic missile theater nuclear forces and the strategic nuclear strike capability it has maintained since it became a nuclear state,” the report said.

The missile also could be deployed on Chinese ships and submarines allowing it to target U.S. military facilities in Guam, Hawaii, and Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean.

China’s anti-ship cruise missile forces also have “advanced significantly,” the report said.

“Because there are doubts regarding whether U.S. Navy shipboard systems could reliably and adequately defend against intense salvos of China’s advanced Russian-made and indigenous [anti-ship cruise missiles], China’s advancing ASCM technologies are reason for concern,” the report states.

A chart in the report lists a total of 12 different cruise missiles, including the CJ-20, with ranges of between 62 miles and 932 miles.

“China is developing cruise missiles that are increasingly difficult for the U.S. military to detect and defend against,” the report said.

China’s ballistic missile forces also are growing more lethal with the addition of multiple warheads and precision guided warheads.

Beijing has 13 different ballistic missiles, both silo-based and road-mobile, with ranges of between 186 miles and 6,959 miles.

On China’s maritime disputes in the South China Sea, the report outlines new details of the military buildup on some of the 2,900 acres of islands created by Chinese dredging.

“China is building, expanding, and upgrading military and civilian infrastructure on the islands,” the report said. The construction included up to three airstrips, helipads, port facilities, radars, and satellite communication equipment, and antiaircraft and naval guns.”

The report said the island-building is part of a military plan the Pentagon calls “anti-access/area-denial” aimed at preventing U.S. forces, a presence of peace and stability for some 60 years, from operating.

Chinese military forces on the islands could be used to prevent a U.S. defense of Taiwan, as required under the 1972 Taiwan Relations Act.

On Taiwan, the report warned that growing anti-mainland sentiment on the island could lead to the election of a pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party president in January.

The military buildup is also taking place on islands in the East China Sea, where China is disputing Japan for control of the Senkaku islands.

One new exotic weapon mentioned in the report is the Aviation Industry Corp. of China’s high-altitude hypersonic unmanned aerial vehicle for regional strategic reconnaissance operations. Press reports indicate the drone will travel at up to three times the speed of sound at 95,000 feet.

On cyber, a section to be deleted from the final report said: “Evidence of Chinese cyber espionage against U.S. military and civilian government entities illustrates a focused, well resourced, and state-sponsored effort by China to secure an advantage in an evolving strategic competition with the United States. China has the resources and the demonstrated capability to extract sensitive data from U.S. agencies and steal defense technology and other secrets.”

A Pentagon report from January 2015 stated that the U.S. defense industry is vulnerable to Chinese cyber attacks noting “significant vulnerabilities on nearly every [Defense Department] acquisition program that underwent cyber security [operational test and evaluation] in [fiscal year] 2014.”

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Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria

October 12, 2015

Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria

By Mike Whitney

October 9, 2015

Source: Putin’s “Endgame” in Syria

Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.

Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor.  On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.

Then there was a third incident, a more serious incident, that was not a mistake. It was clearly intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  Here’s a short summary of what happened from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:

“Turkish officials claimed a third incident on Monday, when an unidentified MiG-29 fighter jet locked its radar for four and a half minutes on eight Turkish F-16 jets that were on patrol on their side of the border, in apparent preparation to open fire.” (“US, NATO step up threats to Russia over Syria“, World Socialist Web Site)

This was no mistake. The only time a fighter pilot adopts these protocols is when he plans to take down an enemy plane. This was a message, and while it might have been over-the-heads of the politicians and the media but, I assure you, every general in the Turkish High-Command knows what’s it means. This is a wake-up call.  Moscow is indicating that there’s a new sheriff in town and that Turkey had better behave itself or there’s going to be trouble. There’s not going to be any US-Turkey no-fly zone over North Syria, there’s not going to be any aerial attacks on Syrian sites from the Turkish side of the border, and there certainly is not going to be any ground invasion of Turkish troops into Syria.  The Russian Aerospace Defence Forces now control the skies over Syria and they are determined to defend Syria’s sovereign borders. That’s the message. Period.

This is a good example of how “preemption” can actually prevent conflicts rather than starting them. By firing a shot over Turkey’s bow, Moscow has dampened Erdogan’s plan to annex part of N. Syria and declare it a “safe zone”. Turkey will have to scrap that plan now realizing that any attempt to seize-and-hold Syrian territory will trigger a swift and powerful Russian retaliation. Seen in this light,  Russia’s incursion looks like an extremely effective way to prevent a broader war by simply telegraphing to potential adversaries what they can and can’t do. Simply put: Putin has rewritten the rules of the game in Syria and Erdogan had better comply or else. Here’s more on Turkey from Patrick Cockburn in The Independent:

“A Turkish ground invasion into Syria, though still a possibility, would now be riskier with Russian aircraft operating in areas where Turkey would be most likely to launch an incursion.

The danger for the Turks is that they now have two Kurdish quasi-states, one in Syria and one in Iraq, immediately to the south. Worse, the Syrian-Kurdish one…is run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is effectively the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984. Any insurgency by the PKK in Kurdish areas in south-east Turkey in future will be strengthened by the fact that the PKK has a de facto state of its own.

It appears that Turkey’s four-year attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad has failed. It is unclear what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can do about this since support from Nato is at this stage purely rhetorical. As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, Mr Erdogan says that any attack on Turkey is an attack on Nato and that “if Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has co-operated on many issues, it will lose a lot.” But in Syria, at least, it appears that it is Turkey that is the loser.” (“Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets“, The Unz Review)

Poor Erdogan. He rolled the dice and came up snake-eyes. He figured he could expand his would-be Ottoman Empire into Northern Syria, and now his dream is in a shambles. Should he deploy his warplanes to N Syria and openly challenge the Russian airforce?  No, he’s not that foolish. He’s going to stay on his side of the border, stomp his feet, and lash out at “evil Putin”, but at the end of the day, he’ll do nothing.

And Washington’s not going to do anything either. Yes, Hillary and McCain have been calling for a no-fly zone over Syria, but that’s not going to happen. Putin won’t allow it and neither will the Security Council. And, on what pretext anyway? Is Obama really going to request a no-fly zone on the basis that Putin is killing “moderate” terrorists along with the “extreme” terrorists? That’s not a very compelling argument, in fact, even the American people are having a hard time swallowing that one. If Obama wants something from Putin, he’s going to have sit-down at a bargaining table and hash out a deal. So far, he has refused to do that, because he still thinks regime change is within his grasp. There are signs of this everywhere like this article in Turkey’s Today’s Zaman titled “İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel”:

“A tent city within İncirlik has been undergoing reconstruction for modern prefabricated houses, which will host 2,250 US military personnel, the Doğan news agency reported on Friday. During the Gulf War of 1991, a tent city was established to accommodate military personnel serving with Operation Provide Comfort (OPC) and was shut down with the end of the OPC.

On Aug. 20, work began to transform the site of the tent city into a new area named “Patriot Town.” After construction is completed, the İncirlik base will have the largest capacity among the US bases in Europe…

The expansion of the İncirlik base’s capacity comes at a time when Russia has launched the biggest intervention in the Middle East in decades….Moscow’s intervention means the conflict in Syria has been transformed from a proxy war.. into an international conflict in which the world’s main military powers… are directly involved in fighting.” (“İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel“, Today’s Zaman)

This article smacks of US ambitions in the Middle East. As readers can plainly see,  Washington is gearing up for another war just like it did in 1991.  And the US air war is going to be launched from “Patriot Town” at Incirlik just like we’ve been predicting since July when the deal was finalized. Here’s more background from an article at Hurriyet:

“U.S. Air Force Central Command has started deploying search and rescue helicopters and airmen at Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakır Air Base in order to help with recovery operations in neighboring Iraq and Syria, it has announced….

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, has said the mission will be temporary.

“We will be guests of the government of Turkey at Diyarbakir Air Base. There are no plans for a permanent U.S. presence at this location … This marks yet another successful cooperative effort between the Turkish and U.S. militaries,” Breedlove said.” (“US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast“, Hurriyet)

 

“US Search and rescue helicopters” just a couple miles from Turkey’s southeastern border?

Yep.  In other words,  if an F-16 is shot down somewhere over Syria while trying to impose an illegal no-fly zone, then– Presto– the search and rescue helicopters are just 20 minutes away.

How convenient.

So you can see that– even though Putin has thrown a wrench in the works–  the Obama team is still moving ahead with its “Topple Assad” plan.  Nothing has changed, the Russian intervention just makes the future much more uncertain which is why frustrated geopolitical strategists, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, have begun to pop-up in the op-ed pages of leading newspapers blasting Putin for sabotaging their plans for regional hegemony. It’s worth noting that Brzezinski is the spiritual godfather of Islamic extremism, the man who figured out how religious nutcases could be used to foment hysteria and advance US geopolitical objectives around the world. Thus, it’s only natural that Brzezinski would want to offer his advice now in a desperate effort to avoid a legacy of failure and disgrace. Check out this clip from Politico:

“The United States should threaten to retaliate if Russia does not stop attacking U.S. assets in Syria, former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in a Financial Times op-ed published Sunday, urging “strategic boldness,” with American credibility in the Middle East and the region itself at stake….And if Russia continues to pursue non-ISIL targets, the U.S. should retaliate, he added.

“In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said.” (“Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets“, Politico)

The people who Brzezinski breezily refers to as “American assets” in Syria are terrorists. It’s that simple. Putin doesn’t distinguish between the “moderate” terrorists and the “radical” terrorists, the good terrorists and the bad terrorists. It’s a joke. They’re all in the same pool and they’re all going to meet the same fate. They all have to be rooted out, apprehended or killed. End of story.

By tweaking the war on terror narrative in a way that supports some, but condemns others, the Obama administration has backed themselves into an ideological cul de sac from which there is no way out. What they are doing is wrong and they know it is wrong. And that’s why it’s going to be so difficult to make the case for war. In a recent “must see” interview, Putin called out Obama on this very point. Here’s what he said:

“President Obama frequently mentions the threat of ISIS. Well, who on earth armed them? And who created the political climate that facilitated the current situation?  Who delivered arms to the area? Do you really not know who is fighting in Syria? They’re mercenaries mostly. They are paid money. Mercenaries work for whatever side pays more. We even know how much they are paid. We know they fight for awhile and then see that someone else pays a little more, so they go there…..

The US says “We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria”. So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the US to think one step ahead?  We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.” (Putin explains who started ISIS, you tube, 1:38 to 4:03)

See? Everyone knows what’s going on. Barack Obama is not going to initiate a confrontation with Russia to defend a fundamentally immoral CIA program that has gone south.  He will, however, do what the US always does when dealing with an adversary that can actually defend itself.  He’s going to hector, harass, threaten, demean, demonize, ridicule, and bully. He might launch another attack on the ruble, or fiddle with oil prices or impose more economic sanctions. But he’s not going to start a war with Russia,  that’s just not going to happen.

But don’t give up hope just yet, after all, there is a silver lining to this fiasco, and all of the main players know exactly what it is.

It’s called Geneva. Geneva is the endgame.

Geneva is the UN-backed road map for ending the war in Syria. Its provisions allow for the “establishment of a transitional governing body”, the  “participation of all groups… in a meaningful national dialogue,” and “free and fair multi-party elections.”

The treaty is straightforward and uncontroversial. The one sticking point, is whether Assad will be allowed to participate in the transitional government or not.

Putin says “Yes”.  Obama says “No”.

Putin is going to win this battle. Eventually, the administration will cave in and withdraw their demand that Assad step down. Their plans for regime change through the use of jihadi-proxies will have failed, and Putin will have moved the Middle East one step closer to a lasting peace and genuine security.

That’s the silver lining and that’s how the war in Syria will end.

Bravo, Putin.

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President Franklin Delano Obama Addresses the Threat of 1930s Violent Extremism

February 23, 2015

President Franklin Delano Obama Addresses the Threat of 1930s Violent Extremism , PJ Media, Victor Davis Hanson, February 22, 2015

 

Imagine Obama as an American president in 1939.

“The United States has made significant gains in our struggle against violent extremism in Europe. We are watching carefully aggressions in Czechoslovakia, Austria, and in Eastern Europe. My diplomatic team has made it very clear that aggression against neighbors is inappropriate and unacceptable. We live in the 20th century, where the 19th century practice of changing borders by the use of force has no place in the present era.

“Let me be perfectly clear: Mr. Hitler is playing to a domestic audience. He adopts a sort of macho shtick, as a cut-up in the back of the class who appeals to disaffected countrymen. Our task is to demonstrate to Mr. Hitler that his current behavior is not really in his own interest, and brings neither security nor profit to Germany.

“As for acts of violence in Germany itself, we must express our worry to the German government over apparent extremism, but at the same time we must not overreact. As far as these sporadic attacks on random civilians, as, for example, during the recent Kristallnacht violence, we must keep things in perspective, when, for example, some terrorists randomly targeted some folks in a store. My job is sort of like a big-city mayor, to monitor these terrorist acts that are said to be done in the name of the German people. Let us not overreact and begin to listen to radio commentators who whip us up into a frenzy as if we were on the verge of war. We must not overestimate the SS, a sort of jayvee organization that remains a manageable problem.

“Here let me just say that we must never fall into the trap of blaming the German people abroad, but especially our German community here at home. National Socialism by no means has anything to do with socialism. These terrorists are desperate for legitimacy, and all of us have a responsibility to refute the notion that groups like the SS somehow represent socialism because that is a falsehood that embraces the terrorist narrative. It is true that America and Germany have a complicated history, but there is no clash of civilizations. The notion that the America would be at war with Germany is an ugly lie.

“So make no mistake about it: National Socialism has nothing to do with Germany or the German people but is rather a violent extremist organization that has perverted the culture of Germany. It is an extremist ideology that thrives on the joblessness of Germany and can be best opposed by the international community going to the root of German unemployment and economic hard times. Let us not confuse Nazism with legitimate expressions of German nationalism. Stiff-arm saluting and jack boots are legitimate tenets of Germanism, and the German Brotherhood, for example, is a largely peaceful organization.

“So we Americans must not get on our own high horse. We, too, have bullied our neighbors and invaded them. We, too, have struggled with racism and anti-Semitism, slavery and Jim Crow. And our own culture has at times treated American citizens in the same callous way as the National Socialist do Germans. Before we castigate the Nazis, let us remember the Inquisition and the Crusades.

“In the face of Nazi challenge, we must stand united internationally and here at home — opposing workplace violence and man-caused disasters. We know that overseas contingency operations alone cannot solve the problem of Nazi aggression. Nor can we simply take out SS troopers who kill innocent civilians. We also have to confront the violent extremists — the propagandists working for Dr. Goebbels and Herr Himmler, recruiters and enablers — who may not directly engage in man-caused disasters themselves, but who radicalize, recruit and incite others to do so. One of the chief missions of our new aeronautics board will be to reach out to Germans to make them feel proud of German achievement. I want to remind Americans that Germans fostered the Renaissance, and helped create sophisticated navigation, mathematics, and medicine. This week, we will take an important step forward, as governments, civil society groups and community leaders from more than 60 nations will gather in Washington for a global summit on countering violent extremism. We hope that the efforts of those like Mr. Chamberlain, Mr. Daladier and others will focus on empowering local communities, especially in Britain and France.

“Groups like the SS offer a twisted interpretation of German culture that is rejected by the overwhelming majority of the world’s German-speaking communities. The world must continue to lift up the voices of moderate German pastors and scholars who teach the true peaceful nature of German culture. We can echo the testimonies of former SS operatives and storm troopers who know how these terrorists betray Germany. We can help German entrepreneurs and youths work with the private sector to develop media tools to counter extremist Nazi narratives on radio and in newspapers.

“We know from experience that the best way to protect all people, especially young people, from falling into the grip of violent extremists like the SS and the National Socialists is the support of their family, friends, teachers and faith leaders throughout Germany and Western Europe in general.

“More broadly, groups like those headed by Herr Hitler and the National Socialists exploit the anger that festers when people in Germany feel that injustice and corruption leave them with no chance of improving their lives. The world has to offer today’s youth something better. Here I would remind ourselves of our past behavior in waging wars near the homeland of Germany. I opposed the Great War, and further opposed the Versailles Treaty that disturbed the region and stirred up violent passions and extremism.

“Governments like those in Europe that deny human rights play into the hands of extremists who claim that violence is the only way to achieve change. Efforts to counter such violent extremism will only succeed if citizens can address legitimate grievances through the democratic process and express themselves through strong civil societies. Those efforts must be matched by economic, educational and entrepreneurial development so people have hope for a life of dignity. It does no good to talk of wars against Germany or Italy, or to demonize particular political movements as if they are monolithic or in any way represent the feeling of the majority of Germans and Italians.

“Finally — with Nazism and fascism peddling the lie that the United States is at war with Germany and Italy — all of us have a role to play by upholding the pluralistic values that define us as Americans. This week we’ll be joined by people of many faiths, including German and Italian Americans who make extraordinary contributions to our country every day. It’s a reminder that America is successful because we welcome people of all faiths and backgrounds. Germany has always been a part of America, always a part of the American story. The future will not belong to those who slander German culture. I made clear that America is not — and never will be — at war with Germany.

“That pluralism has at times been threatened by hateful ideologies and individuals from various nations. We’ve seen tragic killings directed at particular groups in our country, among them German Americans.

“We do not yet know why at times Germans have been attacked here in the United States.  But we know that many German Americans across our country are worried and afraid. Americans of all faiths and backgrounds must continue to stand united with the German community in mourning and insist that no one should ever be targeted because of who they are, what they look like, or how they worship.

“Our campaign to prevent people around the world from being radicalized to violence is ultimately a battle for hearts and minds. With this week’s summit here at Washington, we’ll show once more that — unlike terrorists who only offer misery and death — it is our free societies and diverse communities that offer the true path to opportunity, justice and dignity.”

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