Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be removed by force if the peace process fails, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister has said.
“Bashar al-Assad will leave – have no doubt about it,” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told CNN. “He will either leave by a political process or he will be removed by force.”
Saudi Arabia has sent troops and fighter jets to a Turkish military base ahead of a possible ground invasion of Syria.
Mr Jubeir said Saudi Arabia is prepared to contribute ground troops to the fight in Syria, but only as part of a US-led coalition.
There were reports of Royal Saudi Air Force F-15 jets arriving at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey on Saturday morning
He added: “We will push as much as we can to ensure that the political process works. But if that doesn’t work, it will be because of the obstinance of the Syrian regime and that of its allies.
“And should that prove to be the case, then it becomes clear that there is no option to remove Bashar al-Assad except by force.”
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin
On Sunday, he told a press conference in Riyadh that previous efforts to prop up Assad by Iran had failed.
“Now, [President Assad] has sought the help of Russia, which will fail to save him,” he added.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu speaks to reporters on his plane en route to Ukraine on Monday. (Photo: DHA)
Turkey will not allow the northern Syrian town of Azaz to fall into the hands of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its fighters will face the “harshest reaction” if they approach it again, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said on Monday.
A major offensive supported by Russian bombing and Iranian-backed Shiite militias has brought the Syrian army to within 25 km (15 miles) of the Turkish border. The YPG has exploited the situation, seizing ground from Syrian rebels to extend its presence along the Turkish border.
Turkey is infuriated by the expansion of Kurdish influence in northern Syria, fearing it will encourage separatist ambitions among its own Kurds. The YPG, which Ankara considers to be a terrorist group, controls nearly all of Syria’s frontier with Turkey.
Speaking to reporters on his plane en route to Ukraine, Davutoğlu said YPG fighters would have taken control of rebel-held Azaz and the town of Tal Rifaat further south had it not been for Turkish artillery firing at them over the weekend.
“YPG elements were forced away from around Azaz. If they approach again they will see the harshest reaction. We will not allow Azaz to fall,” Davutoğlu said.
He said Turkey would make the Menagh air base north of the city of Aleppo “unusable” if the YPG, which seized it over the weekend from Syrian insurgents, did not withdraw. He warned the YPG not to move east of the Afrin region or west of the Euphrates River, long a “red line” for Ankara.
Azaz came under heavy fire again on Monday. At least 14 civilians were killed when missiles hit a children’s hospital, a school and other locations, a medic and two residents said.
Syria’s rebels, some backed by the United States, Turkey and their allies, say the YPG is fighting with the Syrian military against them in the five-year-old civil war. The YPG denies this.
Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Washington, which does not see the YPG as terrorists, supports the group in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria.
NATO member Turkey is now at risk of being dragged ever deeper into the Syrian conflict. Turkish financial markets including the lira currency were weaker on Monday on fears about the situation.
19 killed in Russian bombing of medical facilities in Syria Despite the international calls to stick to the understandings reached in Munich over the weekend, the fighting in Syria along the Turkish border has worsened. It was reported that two hospitals were bombed by the Russians.
At least 19 Syrians were killed today in two Russian bombings in the framework of the fighting in Syria. In one of the incidents that took place near the Turkish border, 7 Russian missiles hit a compound that was established as a hospital and school for refugees in the area.
Medical organizations that were operating in the area near the bombings accepted dozens of injured people who needed medical care after the attack. In another incident, a French medical organization operating in the area noted that a medical clenic that was established by Al Numan Cave was destroyed. According to them, the medical facility was deliberately bombed by the Russian Air Force.
Russia accused Turkey today of assisting jihadist terror organizations that infiltrated Syria illegally, among them ISIS: “Moscow expresses its utmost concern with the aggressive actions taken by the Turkish authorities in the neighboring country.” At the same time, there was an exchange of fire this morning between the Turks and armed Kurdish groups. The Turkish Foreign Minister stated that his country’s army is deployed along the border. Meanwhile, the United States and Germany called for relaxing the tensions that presently exist in Syria.
Syrian army units and paramilitary forces are reportedly moving into Raqqa province, seizing strategically important areas along the Salamiyah-Raqqa road which leads directly into the Islamic State stronghold.
On Sunday, Syrian government forces and Palestinian armed militia captured the strategically important Tal Masbah hilltop, the last entrenched Islamic State (IS, previously ISIS/ISIL) position.
The fortified position guarded approaches to the Salamiyah-Raqqa highway, leading to the terror group’s stronghold in the city of Raqqa, Al-Masdar news outlet reported, citing a military source.
Later that day, the Syrian government army launched a massive assault on the village of Zakiyah and seized an important crossroads near the village, cutting IS’s major supply route from Raqqa to nearby Hama province.
The Syrian government army’s 555th Brigade, 4th Mechanized Division, “Desert Hawks” brigade and Golani regiment, as well as the pro-government Palestinian Liwaa Al-Quds militia (Jerusalem brigade) took part in both ground offensives.
A source in the 555th brigade told Al-Masdar that IS militants entrenched at Tal Masbah hilltop were forced to flee northeast towards the desert on the Raqqa-Hama border, where an intense battle between the terror group and government forces is taking place.
The Syrian government army is also set to retake the key Tabaqah military airbase in southwest Raqqa province, which was captured by IS in August 2014.
“This is an indication of the direction of coming operations toward Raqqa,” a military source briefed on the battle told Reuters. “In general, the Raqqa front is open … starting in the direction of the Tabqa area.”
The advance into IS-held Raqqa province would allow Damascus to regain control over a region where Syrian government forces have had no presence since 2014. It would also complicate any move by Saudi Arabia to deploy forces to the area.
Previous media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering a full-scale ground invasion into war-torn Syria, where they are backing anti-government rebels battling Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Riyadh has also been threatening that Assad will be toppled if he does not leave during a period of political transition. “Bashar al-Assad will leave – have no doubt about it. He will either leave by a political process or he will be removed by force,” Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told CNN.
The possible Saudi intervention as well as recent Turkish artillery shelling of Kurdish and Syrian army positions came amid a successful anti-IS offensive by government forces in Aleppo, another important region.
Royal Saudi Air Force jets fly in formation in Riyadh. (File photo: Reuters)
Saudi Arabia confirmed late on Saturday it sent aircraft to NATO-member Turkey’s İncirlik air base for the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants, although Turkish sources reportedly denied arrival of any Saudi aircraft.
Brig. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, adviser in the office of Saudi Arabia’s minister of defense, told pan-Arab Al Arabiya television that the kingdom was committed to stepping up the fighting against ISIL and that the move was part of those efforts.
He also said that the current presence in the air base was limited to aircraft and no ground troops had been sent.
“What is present now is aircraft that are part of the Saudi Arabian forces,” Assiri said in response to a question on whether ground troops were included.
Turkey’s Hürriyet daily, however, quoted Turkish military sources as denying the arrival of Saudi jets at the İncirlik air base. According to the military sources, Saudi jets had not arrived at İncirlik yet and their arrival would take two to three weeks, Hürriyet reported.
Saudi Arabia has resumed its participation in air strikes against ISIL in recent weeks and US Defense Secretary Ash Carter on Thursday welcomed its commitment to expand its role.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu told the Yeni Şafak newspaper on Saturday that Saudi Arabia had carried out inspections at the air base in preparation for sending aircraft.
Turkish troops are continuing to shell Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) positions in Syria’s Azaz district, located in the countryside north of Aleppo, Turkish security sources confirmed on Feb. 14.
The shelling was first reported on Feb. 13 night when Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said the army had returned artillery fire after coming under attack by PYD forces based around Azaz in northern Syria. He had said the response was within Turkey’s rules of engagement.
According to the Turkish military, the Akcabağlar base in Turkey’s border province of Kilis was shelled on Feb. 13 by “PYD/PKK [the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party]” forces.
On Feb. 14 the Turkish army continued to shell PYD positions, military sources said. Artillery fire could also be heard in Kilis.
Turkish military sources added that several Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions had been destroyed and the militants also reportedly suffered casualties.
Azaz in Aleppo province has been the scene of recent heavy fighting and the YPG have advanced to Azaz, just six kilometers from the Turkish border.
Update: At least two sources confirm that Turkey also fired on the Syrian army on Saturday, an exceptionally provocative move.
Update: Washington has now weighed in and is asking the Turks to please stop shelling the soldiers the Pentagon is arming.
* * *
Even as all sides – including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and select rebel groups – pretend to be working towards a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the five year conflict in Syria, actions speak louder than words, and to put it as succinctly as possible, everyone is still fighting.
In fact, the fighting is more intense than ever. Russia and Hezbollah are closing in on Aleppo, the country’s largest city and a key urban center where rebels are dug in for what amounts to a last stand. If the city is liberated by the government (and yes, “liberated” is more accurate than “falls” because occupied territory belongs to the Syrian government, not to Sunni extremists), Assad will have regained control of the country’s backbone in the west.
That would effectively mean the end of the rebellion and the Gulf monarchies, not to mention Turkey, are not happy about it. “The main battle is about cutting the road between Aleppo and Turkey, for Turkey is the main conduit of supplies for the terrorists,” Assad said in an interview with AFP on Friday.
That supply line has been severed and now, it’s do or die time for the rebels’ Sunni benefactors in Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha. Either intervene or watch as Hezbollah rolls up the opposition under cover of Russian airstrikes, restoring the Assad government and securing the Shiite crescent for the Iranians.
As we documented extensively this week, the Saudis and the Turks are now set to invade. Assad has promised to “confront them”, which of course means that the IRGC and Hassan Nasrallah’s army are set to come into direct contact with Turkish and Saudi troops, setting the stage for an all-out sectarian war that will almost invariably end up pitting NATO against the Russians. Note that this is different from Yemen, where Tehran fights via proxies rather than directly against the Saudi military.
On Saturday the stakes were raised when Turkey said Saudi Arabia is set to send warplanes to Incirlik.
As a reminder, access to Incirlik was the carrot Erdogan used last summer to convince NATO to acquiesce to Ankara’s brutal crackdown on the PKK. “Let me wage war against my political rivals, and you can use our airbase,” is a fair approximation of Erdogan’s proposition.
Now, it appears the Saudis are set to use the base as a staging ground for strikes in Syria.
As RT reports, “Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country.”
Of course the excuse is the same as it ever was for everyone involved: the fight against ISIS.
“The deployment is part of the US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. “At every coalition meeting, we have always emphasized the need for an extensive result-oriented strategy in the fight against the Daesh terrorist group,” he added.
Cavusoglu was speaking to the Yeni Safak newspaper after addressing the 52nd Munich Security Conference where over 60 foreign and defense ministers are gathered (see here for more from the meeting).
“If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation,” he added.
Remember that Ankara’s primary concern in the country is ensuring that the YPG (i.e. the Kurdish opposition that Erdogan equates with the PKK and thus with “terrorism”) doesn’t end up declaring a sovereign state on Turkey’s border. That, Erdogan fears, may embolden Kurds in Turkey who are already pushing for more autonomy.
In short: somehow, Turkey and Saudi Arabia need to figure out how to spin an attack on the YPG and an effort to rescue the opposition at Aleppo as an anti-ISIS operation even though ISIS doesn’t have a large presence in the area.
How they plan to do that is anyone’s guess, but the following tweets should tell you everything you need to know about where this is headed.
As you can see, Turkey has begun shelling Aleppo in what is indeed a very serious escalation that will likely prompt a Russian response.
“Shelling was reported at Menagh air base, a former Syrian Air Force facility that Kurds seized from Islamist rebels just days ago, and at three other positions between the airport and Turkish border,” The Independent reports. “The air base has been a key target for several parties in the Syrian civil war since 2012, being besieged by rebels for almost a year until it was seized by a coalition including an early form of Isis and the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra in August 2013 [and] it remained in rebel hands until Thursday, when Kurdish PYD fighters capitalised on the diversion caused by Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Russian air strikes attacking rebel areas to the south to seize Menagh.”
PM Davutoglu says the shelling was in line with “rules of engagement.”
A Kurdish official confirmed the shelling of Menagh air base in the northern Aleppo countryside, which he said had been captured by the Kurdish-allied Jaysh al-Thuwwar group rather than the Kurdish YPG militia,” Reuters says, adding that “Both are part of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.” That group, you’re reminded, was the subject of intense scrutiny late last year as we documented in our classic piece “Full Metal Retard: US Launches “Performance-Based” Ammo Paradrop Program For Make-Believe ‘Syrian Arabs.'” It’s the same group the US has been paradropping weapons to.
To sum up, Turkey is deliberately attempting to reverse gains made by the US-backed Kurds in an area that is under siege by the Russians and Iran. Or, more simply: utter chaos.
The Syrian government has confirmed that its army positions were targeted by Turkish shelling on Saturday, which also hit the positions of the Syrian Kurdish militias in the northern Aleppo province. Turkish shelling reportedly continued Sunday.
The Syrian government has condemned the Turkish shelling of Syrian territory and described it as direct support for “terrorist” groups, Syrian state media reported Sunday, citing a letter to the United Nations.
“Turkish artillery shelled Syrian territory, targeting Syrian Kurdish positions and the positions of the Syrian Arab Army,” the letter stated.
Damascus sent the letter in response to Saturday’s Turkish shelling of areas north of Aleppo recently captured by a Kurdish-backed alliance.
In the letter the Syrian government condemned statements by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as “blatant interference” in Syrian affairs.
Turkish military sources told Anadolu Agency that the shelling was continuing Sunday and several positions of YPG – the military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union (PYD) – have been destroyed. The militias reportedly suffered a number of casualties, the sources added.
Source: Turkish military repeatedly shell Assad forces; Kurds confirm to RT being hit by massive attack — RT News
The Turkish army has shelled Syrian government forces in Aleppo and Latakia provinces, while also hitting Kurdish targets near the city of Azaz in northwestern Syria, including an air base recently retaken from Islamist rebels, with a massive attack.
Anatolia news agency reported that the Turkish military hit Syrian government forces on Saturday, adding that the shelling had been in response to fire inflicted on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey’s southern Hatay region.
Turkish artillery targeted Syrian forces again late on Saturday, according to a military source quoted by RIA Novosti. The attack targeted the town of Deir Jamal in the Aleppo Governorate.
The agency also cited details of an earlier attack on Syrian government army positions in northwestern Latakia.
“Turkey’s artillery opened fire on the positions of the Syrian Army in the vicinity of Aliya mountain in the northwestern part of the province of Latakia,” the source said.
Meanwhile, the Turkish shelling of Kurdish positions continued for more than three hours almost uninterruptedly, a Kurdish source told RT, adding that the Turkish forces are using mortars and missiles and firing from the Turkish border not far from the city of Azaz in the Aleppo Governorate.
The shelling targeted the Menagh military air base and the nearby village of Maranaz, where “many civilians were wounded,” local journalist Barzan Iso told RT. He added that Kurdish forces and their allies among “the Syrian democratic forces” had taken control of the air base on Thursday.
According to Iso, the Menagh base had previously been controlled by the Ahrar ash-Sham Islamist rebel group, which seized it in August of 2013. The journalist also added that Ahrar ash-Sham militants at the base had been supported by Al-Nusra terrorists and some extremist groups coming from Turkey.
Ahrar ash-Sham is a militant group that has trained teenagers to commit acts of terror in Damascus, Homs, and Latakia provinces, according to data provided to the Russian Defense Ministry by Syrian opposition forces.
The group, which has intensified its attacks on the Syrian government forces since January, was getting “serious reinforcements from Turkey,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during a briefing in Moscow on January 21.
A source in the Turkish government confirmed to Reuters that the Turkish military had shelled Kurdish militia targets near Azaz on Saturday.
“The Turkish Armed Forces fired shells at PYD positions in the Azaz area,” the source said, referring to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara views as a terrorist group.
A Turkish security official told Reuters that the shelling of the Kurds had been a response to a shelling of Turkish border military outposts by the PYD and forces loyal to Damascus, as required under Turkish military rules of engagement.
Turkey’s PM Davutoglu also confirmed that the country’s forces had struck Syrian Kurdish fighters and demanded that the Kurds retreat from all of the areas that they had recently seized.
“The YPG will immediately withdraw from Azaz and the surrounding area and will not go close to it again,” he told reporters, adding that Turkey “will retaliate against every step [by the YPG],” Reuters reports.
A Kurdish official confirmed to Reuters that the shelling had targeted the Menagh air base located south of Azaz.
According to the official, the base had been captured by the Jaysh al-Thuwwar rebel group, which is an ally of PYD and a member of the Syria Democratic Forces alliance.
Syrian Kurds are actively engaged in the fight against the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) terrorist group and have been recently described as “some of the most successful” forces fighting IS jihadists in Syria by US State Department spokesman John Kirby, AFP reports.
Earlier, the US also called the PYD an “important partner” in the fight against Islamic State, adding that US support of the Kurdish fighters “will continue.”
Turkey’s shelling of the Syrian Kurds comes just days after a plan to end hostilities in Syria was presented in Munich after a meeting of the so-called International Syria Support Group (ISSG), in which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry, and UN Special Envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura participated.
‘We will strike PYD’ – Turkish PM
Earlier on Saturday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened Syrian Kurds with military action, saying that Turkey will resort to force against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) if it considers the step “necessary.”
“As I have said, the link between the YPG and the [outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party] PKK is obvious. If the YPG threatens our security, then we will do what is necessary,” Davutoglu said on February 10, as quoted by the Hurriyet Daily.
“The leadership cadre and ideology of the PKK and PYD is the same,” he argued in a televised speech in the eastern city of Erzincan on Saturday, AFP reports.
Davutoglu also said that if there is a threat to Turkey, “we will strike PYD like we did Qandil,” referring to a bombing campaign waged by Turkey against the PKK in its Qandil mountain stronghold in northern Iraq, Daily Sabah reports.
Turkey regards the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the YPG, as affiliates of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decade-long insurgency against Turkish authorities, demanding autonomy for Turkish Kurds.
The latest developments come as Turkey continues a relentless crackdown on Kurds in its southeastern region. Ankara launched a military operation against Kurdish insurgents from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in July of 2015, breaking a ceasefire signed in 2013.
Turkey’s General Staff claim that Turkish forces killed more than 700 PKK rebels during the offensive in the southeastern districts of Cizre and Sur. Meanwhile, Amnesty International has reported that at least 150 civilians, including women in children, were killed in the Turkish military operation, adding that over 200,000 lives have been put at risk.
According to the Turkish Human Rights Foundation, at least 198 civilians, including 39 children, have been murdered in the area since August of 2015.
The foreign ministers of Germany, Russia and the UK attending a security conference in Munich gave conflicting views on how likely the negotiated ceasefire in Syria would hold and who it would depend on.
Responding to a question on how likely the Syrian Army and so-called moderate rebel groups are to observe the ceasefire negotiated by world powers, Germany’s Frank-Walter Steinmeier simply said, “51 percent.”
Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, was reluctant to voice any percentage, and said any success in the peace process would depend on the US military finally agreeing on coordinating their actions in Syria with Russia.
He said that while his counterpart, Secretary of State John Kerry, in his Munich speech earlier said that military cooperation with Russia is what the US wants in Syria, statements from the Pentagon directly contradicted it. Moreover, the US insists on continuing its own military action in Syria while demanding that Russia put its campaign on hold, even though both campaigns are targeting terrorist groups.
“The fact that the discourse around this ceasefire is drifting toward prioritizing the halt of the operations of the Russian Air Forces makes me strongly suspect that our peace effort would end in a sour way. If the military are not maintaining an honest day-to-day contact… nothing can be achieved,” Lavrov said.
“If the Americans try to play it back now, it would be their responsibility,” he added.
Moderator Wolfgang Ischinger joked: “Sounds like a little less than 50 percent,” to which Lavrov glumly replied: “Forty-nine.”
“I don’t speak Russian, but I was judging something close to zero,” commented the third member of the panel, UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond.
He proceeded to say that it was Russia who can finally make or break the ceasefire, accusing Moscow of bombing the same moderate opposition that it expects to observe the ceasefire, an allegation that Russia denies.
“Whatever you call it, whatever the justification, whatever the language – over the last weeks Russia has been bombing the moderate opposition positions. In the name of fighting terrorism, whatever,” Hammond said. “Unless Russia over the next days is going to stop or at least significantly scale back that bombing, the moderate armed opposition will not join in this process.”
Ironically, Russia has been trying for months to get the sponsors of the “moderate Syrian opposition” provide the Russian military with accurate list of the armed groups, which should be considered moderate enough to be negotiated with, and their positions so that Russia wouldn’t bomb them. This information is exactly what Lavrov said the Pentagon is withholding from the Russian military, despite all Moscow’s requests.
What is collectively called the Syrian rebels are a fluid and disorganized assortment of armed groups with conflicting agendas and shifting allegiances. Agreeing who should be at the negotiations table was a major challenge during the organization of the peace talks in Munich, and eventually only the terrorist group Islamic State and the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the Nusra Front, were explicitly excluded.
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