WarSclerotic

While the international community has been disturbed by the gruesome images emerging of a 24-year-old Jordanian pilot being taken hostage by Islamic State after his F-16 fighter jet was reportedly shot down by the terror group, few have pondered the broader issue of whether Jordan’s king can be a trusted ally in the War against Terrorism. Jordanian Palestinian journalist Mudar Zahran noted: “From a technical point of view, let us examine the capability of the Jordanian Air Force which is involved in the war on IS.”

“The Jordanians have a fleet of F-16s, approximately 60 of which have been delivered by the US over the last 10 years,” he noted. “Those jets are not modern ones. They are basically F-16’s type A and B, which represent the early model of the jet. Nevertheless, they have been upgraded by the Dutch and Belgium Air Force which conducted what is known as mid-life upgrades to the F-16 models, which gave them more stability and made them comparable to later models such as the F-16 C and D. While the Jordanians have received modern jets from the US, they still hold the world’s record on crashed F-16’s. Officially, Jordan has admitted that 9 jets fell during regular training missions. Given that their fleet size is 60; that is a very high number.”

Zahran believes that the reason why so many Jordanian F-16s crash is because the Jordanian Air Force recruits based on who is a political favorite of the monarchy rather than solid qualifications or even physical strength: “For starters, the Jordanian Air Force allows high school graduates who concentrated in literature enter, even though they have less knowledge of math and science, despite the fact that an understanding of aerodynamics is essential. At the same time, the minimum grade point average required to enter the Jordanian training program for pilots is 60%, basically a D average.”

Rhaed Khames, the Shadow Secretary of Defense for the Jordanian Coalition of Opposition who for 20 years was a commander in the Jordanian Army, commented that the quality of Jordanian trainees is not proper. He stressed that “like everything else in Jordan, it is based on whether the king likes your family or not and the hot shots make their children become pilots.” Furthermore, Khames noted that “if you think those operating the Jordanian jets and even managing the Jordanian Air Force are all moderates, think again.” He noted that Captain Majali, a cousin to the king’s security chief and who was formerly in the Jordanian Air Force, defected from his job and joined Islamic State. He died while fighting for Islamic State five months ago. Given this, Zahran questions how useful the Jordanian Air Force can potentially be in the War against Islamic State and other Islamist groups.

However, the problem with Jordan being relied upon as an ally for Israel and the west does not end with the weaknesses of the Jordanian Air Force. CNN confirmed that Jordan is one of the biggest purchasers of IS oil on the black market. One must ponder, does Jordan’s king use the oil it purchases from Islamic State to fuel those F-16 fighter jets? And given that the Hashemites are relying upon the Muslim Brotherhood to stay in power and that the Muslim Brotherhood openly supports Islamic State, facts that were previously reported on JerusalemOnline, how can Israel view the Jordanian monarchy as a reliable partner?

It should be noted that Yarmoul TV, the official Muslim Brotherhood channel, which is licensed by the Jordanian king and broadcasts to the entire world from Jordan, broadcasted a song titled “Run over that settler” which was an even bigger hit in the Arab world than the PA version. Zahran noted that the anti-Israel incitement in the Jordanian media is worse than it is in the Palestinian Authority. For example, Khalil Ateyeh, a MP loyal to the Jordanian King, stated specifically, “I hate the Jews.”

Additionally, YNEWS reported that the Jordanian King was the one who proposed to Kerry a peace plan that calls upon Israel withdrawing to the 1967 borders, which many have noted are not the “secure and recognized borders” envisioned by UN Security Council Resolution 242 and contradict understandings reached between former US President George Bush and former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The Hashemites have also supported Palestinian unilateral efforts that violate previous agreements the Palestinians reached with Israel and Jordanian Ambassador to the US Alia Bouran boasted how Jordan is behind the anti-Israel resolution presently at the UN Security Council.

Upon reading these facts, many may wonder, given this, what alternative does Israel have other than to support the Jordanian king? Many fear that the only choices are between the Hashemites on the one hand and Islamic State/Muslim Brotherhood on the other. For these peoples, it is critical to note that Jordan is not Egypt. In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood supports the king staying in power, preferring to reform the regime rather than topple it. For this reason, Zahran does not believe that IS views toppling the Hashemites to be a priority, as they view time to be on their side.   They merely have to wait until the country radicalizes more by the Muslim Brotherhood before getting rid of the Hashemites.

However, in a recent article published in the Jewish Press, Zahran warned: “At the right time, IS could capitalize on the anger and frustration of Jordanians, including the majority of Palestinian heritage. Under this king, Jordanians of Palestinian origins are denied state jobs, education and healthcare and are forced to pay taxes which others do not pay. They are also under-represented in the parliament and discriminated against on business opportunities. All of this has led to a wide spread frustration.”

“In addition, the Jordanian East Bankers have been particularly disgruntled by the king’s incredibly lavish life style and the way he treats them, for example, confiscating their vast tribal lands and registering those in his name,” Zahran wrote. “In other words, the Jordanian public is a fertile ground of anger that could be easily exploited by IS. While the American establishment-US Department of State in particular- has failed to establish connections to Jordan’s secular /pro-peace opposition, Jordanians are left abandoned with nobody to turn to and desperate for any change. That thrust for “change” might be abused by IS.”

Jordanian East Bank opposition leader Muhammad Mubaideen told the Jewish Press: ”People are so desperate; they are now hoping IS would come and change their conditions. They have nothing to lose and they want to try anyone other than this king.” Emad Tariffi, member of the Jordanian Coalition of Opposition-who is now in jail, reported similar things: “People have lost any hope for change under the king; most of them hope IS could topple the king now.”

In other words, the international community is repeating the same mistake in Jordan that they made in Syria. At the beginning of the Syrian Revolution, there were pro-democracy activists who were fighting against Assad that sought to create a viable democracy within their country. They were not hostile towards the west and would have at the very least kept the status quo with Israel. However, the world was silent and did not support them. As the revolution waged on in Syria, these people were either killed off, forced to flee for their lives or to go underground, as mostly Islamists took over the Syrian Revolution. It got to the point where now, outside of the Kurdish areas, the two strongest groups are Assad backed by Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State and other Islamist groups.

Now, the Jordanian opposition is dominated by secular pro-democracy activists that greatly admire General Sisi in Egypt. They want to maintain the peace treaty with Israel and are very much opposed to the Islamists. However, these people are routinely persecuted by the monarchy and without outside assistance, the moment that IS decides to overthrow the Hashemites, the seculars who have faced persecution that the Muslim Brotherhood never experienced within the country will be at a disadvantage, which could lead to the Islamists taking over Jordan. For Israel and the west, remaining silent and not supporting the Jordanian secular opposition has not been a prudent move. Will the Israeli leadership change course before it is too late?