WarSclerotic

The Iranian Mindset: Andrew Roberts – Hoover Institution

Iran is reportedly advancing its nuclear weapons program, including high-level uranium enrichment and missile development, amid growing international concern.

Source: Iran Escalates Nuclear Program, raising international cornern

Some interesting info in this article.

Several Gulf States, among them Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, passed on intelligence about Iran’s plans to attack Israel, providing vital information that was key to the success of the air defense measures that almost entirely thwarted the massive assault, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday citing Saudi, US, and Egyptian officials.

US persuaded several countries to help in preparing for Iranian assault on Israel, enabling a comprehensive defensive shield to be put in place, Wall Street Journal says

The cooperation was spearheaded by the US, which has for years been striving to form an informal military partnership to counter threats from Iran, the report said.

Overnight Saturday-Sunday Iran launched hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside hundreds of drones at Israel. Yet by Sunday morning, the Israel Defense Forces, backed by the US and other allies, were able to confirm that some 99% of the incoming threats were downed, and the handful that made it through caused only minor damage.

While it was already known that Jordan actively participated in the downing of drones heading to Israel through its airspace, the Journal report for the first time revealed the scope of joint activities stretching across the region, and that included countries that have no diplomatic ties with Israel.

The report cited officials as saying that the success in stopping so many drones and missiles was due to Arab countries having passed on intelligence about the Iranian plan, as well as enabling the use of their airspace and providing radar tracking. In some cases, Arab militaries took an active role in intercepting the threats and “supplied their own forces to help” the report said, indicating that Jordan was not the only Arab nation to do so.

The full role played by Saudi Arabia and “other key Arab governments” is being kept quiet, according to the report.

Tehran had vowed to avenge seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members, including two generals, who were killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike on a building near the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1. It was a major escalation of ongoing fighting along Israel’s northern border amid near-daily attacks by the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.

After the April 1 strike and Iran’s threats to retaliate, US officials began pushing Arab governments for intelligence about Iran’s plans for revenge and for help with intercepting an attack, Saudi and Egyptian officials told the Journal.

Initially, some Arab governments were hesitant, fearing that by helping Israel they would come into direct conflict with Iran or face reprisals. In addition, some were wary about being seen as aiding Israel amid its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which began with the Palestinian terror group’s devastating attack on Israel, and which has been the impetus for the spiking regional tensions.

However, eventually, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates agreed to privately pass on information while Jordan agreed to let the US and “other countries’ warplanes” use its airspace. Jordan also said it would use its own jets to intercept missiles and drones, the officials said.

They said that two days before the attack, Iranian officials told Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states about the profile of the response they were planning against Israel and its timing in order that those countries could secure their own airspace. That information was passed on to the US, providing vital details for the US and Israeli defense plans.

As the attack became imminent, Washington ordered the deployment of aircraft and missile defense systems in the region and coordinated defense between Israel and Arab governments, a senior Israeli official told the Journal.

“The challenge was to bring all those countries around Israel” despite its regional isolation, the official said. “It was a diplomatic issue.”

According to the report, missiles and drones were immediately tracked after launch by radars in Persian Gulf countries via a US operations center in Qatar. The information was beamed to fighter jets from “several countries” in the air over Jordan and other countries, as well as to warships and Israel’s missile defense units.

As soon as the drones came within range they were shot down, mostly by Israeli and US fighters, with some by Jordanian, British, and French warplanes, the officials said.

A US official told the journal that during the attack there was a period when over 100 Iranian ballistic missiles were simultaneously in the air and heading for Israel, but the vast majority were shot down by the country’s air-defense systems, both within its borders and beyond.

US officials also noted that half of the Iranian ballistic missiles either failed to launch or crash-landed short of Israel. [HAHAHA!!!]

Two US officials confirmed that statistic to ABC News. According to that report, five missiles did make it through the defenses causing minor damage at the Nevatim Air Base, including to a C-130 transport aircraft and empty storage facilities.

Israel has said there was also minor damage to a taxiway.

The tally for US aircraft was 70 drones while two guided-missile destroyers may have stopped up to six missiles, the Journal reported. A US Patriot system near Erbil, Iraq, also bagged one ballistic missile, a US official told the paper.

The US has been working for years to forge military cooperation between Israel and Sunni Arab states that share a common alignment against Iran.

With a formal military alliance not possible under the existing political situation, the US instead worked to build an informal regional air defense cooperation. The Abraham Accords in 2020, which normalized ties between Israel and the UAE as well as Bahrain, gave a boost to the plans. In another significant move, Israel in 2021 was moved from the European theater to the US Central Command.

Dana Stroul, who until December was the most senior civilian official at the Pentagon for the Middle East region, told the Journal that “Israel’s move into Centcom was a game changer” because it made it easier to share intelligence and provide early warning across countries.

The Israeli official who spoke to the Journal agreed, saying, “The Abraham Accords made the Middle East look different… because we could do things not just under the surface but above it. That’s what created this alliance.”

Israel is believed to have significant covert cooperation with Saudi Arabia though the kingdom has repeatedly said it will only establish ties after the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Another Israeli official involved in the regional security cooperation drive said that though intelligence has been shared in the past, the response to the Iran attack “was the first time that we saw the alliance work at full power.”

War erupted on October 7 when Hamas led a massive cross-border attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people mostly civilians. The thousands of attackers who burst through the border also abducted 253 people to Gaza.

Israel responded with a military offensive to destroy Hamas and free the hostages of whom 129 remain in captivity, some of them believed no longer alive.

The day after the Hamas attack, Iran’s proxy Hezbollah began attacking along the border with Lebanon, while also firing rockets at northern towns and communities. Israel has responded with strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and, allegedly, also airstrikes on related infrastructure in Syria.

The escalating violence raised concerns that it could explode into a major regional war alongside the fighting in Gaza. Those fears have been further stoked by the Iranian assault and Western allies are reportedly urging Israel to not respond.

Andrew Bolt is Australia’s most prominent conservative/right wing columnist.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-irans-strike-against-israel-more-show-than-kill/news-story/aebc86d20fa7907163edfdefe2601895

When the smoke cleared after Iran’s first direct attack on Israel, we saw this world war was all bluster — as fake as professional wrestling.

Sunday – Iran’s first direct attack on Israel – was said to start World War III.

True, Iran unleashed more than 200 drones and rockets, and eight countries got dragged into this fighting.

But relief: when the smoke cleared, we saw this world war was as fake as professional wrestling. Call it World Championship Warfare.

Iran had vowed revenge after Israel bombed its embassy building in Syria’s capital, Damascus, killing a top Iranian general who had overseen anti-Israel terrorists sponsored by Iran. A hard-line political group backing Iran’s supreme leader said he had also helped in “planning and executing” the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas.

Iran’s pride demanded Israel pay. But its fear of Israel – which has shown what it will do to those who wound it – dictated that be more show than kill.

So everything was telegraphed.

First, Iran warned Israel it would strike, and the US even knew it would be this weekend.

That gave Israel time to get jets in the air in readiness, and the US time to position ships with planes and anti-missile defences to help out.

Next, Iran got Hezbollah, its terrorist proxy in Lebanon, to fire some of its 200,000 rockets and missiles at northern Israel – but not many.

Then Iran sent only 185 drones against only military targets and over such a distance that they took nine hours to reach Israel, by which time almost all were shot down.

Iran also fired nearly 150 missiles, but nearly all were intercepted, too. Some did strike – or were allowed to – an Israeli air force base in the Negev desert, letting Iran boast it landed “heavy blows”. Israel said damage was minor.

In the end, the only person reported injured was a Bedouin girl – a Muslim.

Then, having achieved just some showy bangs, Iran called pax: “The matter can be deemed concluded”.

If Israel agrees, it is.

This make-believe shows Israel still frightens its enemies, and the US will still defend it.

What’s more, Arab media reported even Muslim Jordan and Saudi Arabia helped shoot down Iranian missiles and drones. So did British jets.

But Iran’s terrorist proxies did little. Hamas in Gaza is now too weak, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels didn’t shoot much, either.

Yes, Iran remains a menace as it develops its nuclear bomb, but even Muslim countries now defend Israel from it, helping Israel win the first World Championship Warfare title.

Ideal time. Strike now. Leave Fordow and Natanz for another day. Take out air defences, IRGC assets and the soft nuclear sites first.

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-796936

Iran took its best shot  (or a very significant one) at Israel with over 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and over 100 drones, totaling over 300 forms of aerial attack from many different sides and vectors.

What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?

Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.

Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.

Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries’ opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.

The main aim would be to eliminate Iran’s air defense 

They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.

Their job would be to eliminate Iran’s serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.

Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel’s F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.

There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.

Fordow’s main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.

But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.

That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran’s access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.

Such an operation might not be free.

Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.

Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or midway landing spot as part of the plan.

On the positive side, despite the massive number of aerial attacks by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, which reportedly also included F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft at times, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and has never lost an F-35.

Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran to assist close-up could be lost one way or another.

There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities where Iran has moved forward on weaponization issues – though these facilities might be a lower priority as they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.

As of mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence formed a new unit of dozens of officers with one goal: to collect and assess intelligence to develop a massive target bank for hitting Iran far beyond just its nuclear program.

The targets were to include key power sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to bring them to their knees much the same way IDF intelligence had collected intelligence for years on an enormous number of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.

Israel might not undertake a huge attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

If it does, it might not open up the much larger target bank of IRGC targets.

Maintaining US and allied support is also a crucial value.

On the other hand, the main reason not to attack Iran for years has been the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas, and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.

Being that most of the worst case scenarios have already transpired – and even worse including Yemen who was not viewed as for sure taking part in a theoretical larger war as they have in fact in the current very real war – there would seem to be a lot less of a reason to hold back at this moment than at anytime in decades.

And so it begins…

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-launches-wave-of-drones-at-israel-in-first-ever-direct-attack-idf-braces-to-intercept

Israel said Saturday night that Iran had launched a large wave of attack drones from its territory toward the Jewish state and that the military was tracking and preparing to intercept them, in the first-ever direct attack on Israel by the Islamic Republic.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari first confirmed at 11 p.m. that the attack, anticipated for several days, had begun.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later confirmed it had launched dozens of drones and missiles against specific targets in Israel, Iranian state media quoted a statement by the elite force as saying.

Israel assessed that over 100 drones had been launched. The Israeli Air Force was tracking the drones and was preparing for additional waves of attacks, which may also include missiles.

The drones currently being tracked were expected to reach the country within hours, though the Israel Defense Forces will work to intercept them at an earlier stage. Other threats, including ballistic missiles or cruise missiles, will take less time to reach Israel, and the IDF said it would update accordingly.

The incoming attack led Jordan and Iraq to shut down their airspace for a period of several hours, and Israel too announced that its airspace would shutter as of Sunday at 12:30 a.m. until an unspecified time, leading to various flight cancellations.

Israel’s prime minister and top defense leaders were set to hold a security assessment at military headquarters in Tel Aviv shortly after midnight.

In a press statement, Hagari said the Air Force was tracking the drones, while noting that they would take several hours to reach the country. He said there would be GPS disruptions as the military works to intercept the drones.

“The defense and offense systems of the Israeli Air Force are on alert, and dozens of planes are in the skies — prepared and ready,” said Hagari, adding: “We have an excellent aerial defense array, but the defense is not hermetic.”

If there are any additional attacks, that require a separate warning, Hagari said the IDF will update the public.

Sirens will only sound if the drones enter Israeli airspace, at the relevant locations, Hagari said. He added that the IDF will seek to intercept the targets as early as possible.

Channel 12 said the US was the first to identify the launch and immediately notified Israel, leading to a flurry of activity in recent hours in Israel and its surroundings that led to widespread public assessment that an attack was imminent.

State-linked media in Iran reported that a second wave of drones had been launched at Israel.

Two security sources in Iraq said dozens of drones had been spotted flying from Iran toward Israel over Iraqi airspace in what Iranian Press TV called “extensive drone strikes” by the Revolutionary Guards.

Channel 12 aired video from Iraq that purported to show a wave of drones passing overhead in the night sky. Several such videos were shared on social media.

Jordan’s air defenses were ready to intercept and shoot down any Iranian drones or aircraft that violate its airspace, two regional security sources said.

Earlier in the evening, presaging the attack, the White House announced that US President Joe Biden would cut short a weekend trip to Delaware to hold consultations with his national security team on the potential Iranian strike on Israel.

Biden’s defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, called his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant for the second time in three days to discuss US support for Israel’s defense, the Pentagon said.

“Secretary Austin made clear that Israel could count on full US support to defend Israel against any attacks by Iran and its regional proxies,” read the statement.

Before the incoming attack was confirmed, the IDF’s Home Command issued new guidelines shuttering all schools and educational activity the next day — action that would not affect most schoolchildren, who started their vacation ahead of the Passover holiday at the weekend.

In addition to the closure of educational facilities, the military announced it would be forbidden for more than 1,000 people to assemble outdoors.

Tensions between Israel and Iran had reached a new high in recent days as the Islamic Republic vowed to avenge seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members, including two generals, who were killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike on a building near Tehran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1.

Defense Minister Gallant said in a video statement that Israel had “added new capabilities, on land, in the air, at sea, in intelligence, within the State of Israel, and together with our partners, led by the US,” in preparation for attacks from the “terror state” Iran.

Citing unnamed sources, CNN reported Saturday that the US expected Iran to target multiple sites inside Israel and in the region in the coming days, with one of the sources cited as saying that the US had observed Iran preparing as many as 100 cruise missiles to strike Israel. A senior US administration official told CNN that Iran’s proxies could be involved in the attack as well.

Also citing unnamed sources, Channel 12 reported that by the Israeli security establishment’s estimation, Iran would strike military rather than civilian targets.

On Saturday morning, the IRGC seized a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship, at least partially Israel-owned, near the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the incident, Foreign Minister Israel Katz called “on the European Union and the free world” to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and slap sanctions on Iran.

“The Ayatollah regime of [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei is a criminal regime that supports Hamas’s crimes and is now conducting a pirate operation in violation of international law,” said Katz.

Several international entities have made adjustments to regular business amid the expected Iranian attacks.

Australia’s Qantas and Germany’s Lufthansa airlines on Saturday announced they would reroute flights in the Middle East, with the German airline saying it would avoid Iranian airspace altogether until Tuesday.

Canada on Saturday warned its citizens to avoid all travel to Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank, as Ottawa upgraded its risk assessment in the region.

The Netherlands announced it would keep its embassy in Tehran closed on Sunday, and would decide then whether or not to reopen on Monday.