WarSclerotic

WASHINGTON, United States (AFP) — US President Donald Trump’s order for airstrikes on a Tehran-backed Iraqi militia group, after resisting retaliating against Iran for months, sent a clear message Sunday that killing Americans was his red line.

But experts warned that, far from being deterred, Iran might find that line signals there is space for them to continue the kind of provocative activities that fired up tensions across the Gulf region throughout 2019.

And with Trump facing a re-election fight in 2020, some said Tehran could even step up its actions to challenge the president’s promise to pull US troops out of the Middle East.

US officials said Monday that Trump had exercised “strategic patience” during the past year in the face of Iran’s stepped-up military activities in the region challenging the US and its allies.

But they said that the death Friday of a US civilian contractor in Kirkuk in a rocket attack by Kateb Hezbollah, or the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iran-supported militia, forced Trump’s hand.

At least 25 members of the group were killed in retaliatory US strikes Sunday on five of their bases in Iraq and Syria.

US special representative on Iran Brian Hook at a news conference at the State Department in Washington, November 18, 2019. (Andrew Harnik/AP)

“The president has shown a lot of restraint,” Brian Hook, the State Department’s Special Representative for Iran, told reporters Monday.

“We very much hoped that Iran would not miscalculate and confuse our restraint for weakness. But after so many attacks, it was important for the president to direct our armed forces to respond in a way that the Iranian regime will understand.”

Iran ‘pushed the envelope’

Trump mulled and then deferred retaliation against Iran several times this year over its attacks on foreign oil tankers, the downing of a US drone and the brash September drone-and-missile assault on oil plants in Saudi Arabia, which took out nearly half of Riyadh’s oil output.

Each time, the US leader fell back on more economic sanctions, despite them having had little visible impact on Tehran’s expansive regional military operations.

Since October, the Hezbollah Brigades, which the Pentagon said are supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, carried out some 11 rocket attacks on installations in Iraq where US and coalition forces are present.

But until this weekend the response has been minimal.

David Schenker, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, in Beirut, Lebanon, September 9, 2019. (Hussein Malla/AP)

What changed was the death of an American, which “pushed the envelope,” State Department Assistant Secretary David Schenker said Monday.

“We thought it important to hit a significant target set to send a very clear message to them about how serious we take American lives,” he said.

“This was a defensive action designed to protect American forces and American citizens in Iraq, and it was aimed also at deterring Iran,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox news.

“President Trump has been pretty darn patient, and he’s made clear, at the same time, that when Americans’ lives were at risk we would respond.”

‘Invidious choice’

With Sunday’s airstrikes, Schenker stressed that Washington aims to deter Iran, but does not seek to escalate the conflict between the two countries.

But experts warned that Tehran could receive a different message: that, as long as Americans aren’t directly injured, it could boost its covert activities.

Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Iran’s growing political weight in Iraq and Trump’s aim to reduce the Pentagon’s footprint in the Middle East could well result in Baghdad pressuring the United States to pull out.

Martin Indyk, a former US ambassador to Israel, said Iran could sense an opportunity to further provoke Washington, knowing where Trump’s red line is.

“The consequences of strikes against Iranian proxies going into a US election year is that the Iranians now believe they own the higher rungs of the escalation ladder,” he said on Twitter.

“If US troops in Iraq come under attack Trump will have an invidious choice: another [Middle East] war or backing down.”

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday blamed Iran for an attack hours earlier by militia supporters who broke into the US Embassy compound in Baghdad and damaged property, along with previous Iraqi Shiite militia attacks on US interests.

“Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the US Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible,” he tweeted.

“In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!” Trump added.

The US military said its airstrikes were in retaliation for last week’s killing of an American contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base that it blamed on the Kataeb Hezbollah militia.

Trump tweeted from his estate in Palm Beach, Florida, where he is in the midst of two-week-plus vacation. He’s been largely out of sight and the tweet marked his first comment on the weekend US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria that killed 25 member of the Iran-backed group.

US President Donald Trump makes a video call to the troops stationed worldwide at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, December 24, 2019. (Nicholas Kamm / AFP)

Dozens of Iraqi Shiite militiamen and their supporters broke into the US Embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday, smashing a main door and setting fire to a reception area, angered over the deadly US airstrikes. Tear gas and sounds of gunfire ensued.

The US ambassador and his staff were evacuated, Reuters reported.

An Associated Press reporter at the scene saw flames rising from inside the compound and at least three US soldiers on the roof of the main embassy building. There was a fire at the reception area near the parking lot of the compound but it was unclear what had caused it. A man on a loudspeaker urged the mob not to enter the compound, saying: “The message was delivered.”

Iraqi security forces made no effort to stop the protesters as they marched to the heavily fortified Green Zone after a funeral held for those killed in the US airstrikes, letting them pass through a security checkpoint leading to the area.

The protesters, many in militia uniform, stopped in a corridor after about 5 meters (16 feet), and were only about 200 meters away from the main building.

Protesters damage property inside the US embassy compound, in Baghdad, Iraq, December 31, 2019. (Khalid Mohammed/AP)

Smoke from the tear gas rose in the area, and at least three of the protesters appeared to have difficulty breathing. It wasn’t immediately known whether the embassy staff had remained inside the main building or were evacuated at some point.

There was no immediate comment from the Pentagon and the State Department on the breach of the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Yassine al-Yasseri, Iraq’s interior minister, appeared outside the embassy at one point and walked around to inspect the scene. He told the AP that the prime minister had warned that the US strikes on the Shiite militiamen would have serious consequences.

“This is one of the implications,” al-Yasseri said. “This is a problem and is embarrassing to the government.”

He said more security will be deployed to separate the protesters from the embassy, an indication the Iraqi troops would not move in to break up the crowd by force.

Iraqi security forces stand guard in front of the US embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, December 31, 2019. (Khalid Mohammed/AP)

Seven armored vehicles with about 30 Iraqi soldiers arrived near the embassy hours after the violence erupted, deploying near the embassy walls but not close to the breached area. Four vehicles carrying riot police approached the embassy later but were forced back by protesters who blocked their path.

There were no reports of casualties, but the unprecedented breach was one of the worst attacks on the embassy in recent memory.

The developments represent a major downturn in Iraq-US relations that could further undermine US influence in the region and also weaken Washington’s hand in its maximum pressure campaign against Iran.

Iraq has long struggled to balance its ties with the US and Iran, both allies of the Iraqi government. But the government’s angry reaction to the US airstrikes and its apparent decision not to prevent the protesters from reaching the embassy signaled a sharp deterioration of its ties with the US.

After almost a day of silence, US President Donald Trump commented Sunday on the stabbing spree at a rabbi’s home in Monsey, New York, the night before that left five injured, calling it “horrific” and wishing the victims a full recovery.

“The anti-Semitic attack in Monsey, New York, on the 7th night of Hanukkah last night is horrific,” Trump tweeted.

“We must all come together to fight, confront, and eradicate the evil scourge of anti-Semitism,” Trump said. “Melania and I wish the victims a quick and full recovery.”

Earlier, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded to the stabbings by urging action against anti-Semitism.

“Antisemitism and hate have no place anywhere in our world and we must continue to stand together against them,” Trudeau tweeted. “Last night’s attack on Jews celebrating Hanukkah in New York is a sad reminder of the rising numbers of such heinous acts. We must all come together to end them.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a media conference at the conclusion of a NATO leaders meeting at The Grove hotel and resort in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, December 4, 2019. (Frank Augstein/AP)

Of those injured at least two were seriously hurt in the Saturday night attack and a suspect, Grafton Thomas, 37, was later arrested after fleeing the scene.

Thomas allegedly entered the home of Rabbi Chaim Leibish Rottenberg, who was hosting a Hanukkah gathering, and began wildly stabbing those inside. He is facing charges of five counts of attempted murder.

Britain’s opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn also tweeted about the New York stabbing, along with a rash of anti-Semitic graffiti that appeared overnight Saturday in northern London neighborhoods.

“How terrible that Hanukkah started with a message of hope and on this last day we face antisemitic graffiti in London and horrific stabbings at a party in New York,” wrote Corbyn, who last week tweeted a Hanukkah message that highlighted the idea of hope as expressed by the eight-day festival. “We stand with all our communities facing hate.

“We send love and solidarity to Jewish communities around the world,” he wrote.

Corbyn earlier this month lost a general election to incumbent UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his conservative party. Corbyn’s campaign was dogged with accusations that as Labour leader he has not done enough to root out anti-Semitism in the party.

The Bahraini Foreign Ministry put out a statement condemning the Monsey stabbing — but without mentioning that Jews were the target and victims, or that it happened at a Hanukkah event.

The ministry said it “condemns the terrorist knife attack that took place near New York City in the United States of America, which resulted in the injury of a number of people, wishing them a speedy recovery.”

Rabbi Jeffrey Myers, left, outside the Tree of Life building in Pittsburgh, October 29, 2019, and Rabbi Yisroel Goldstein in the Rose Garden of the White House, May 2, 2019. (Getty Images/via JTA)

Bahrain stressed “the solidarity of the Kingdom with the United States of America in the face against terrorism, reiterating the unwavering position of the Kingdom of Bahrain in rejecting violence, extremism and terrorism regardless of its forms and motives.”

Trudeau’s remarks, apparently the first response to the stabbing by a world leader, came as Trump began to draw criticism for continuing to remain mum about the incident.

Trump was active on Twitter during the morning, to share a post that gave the alleged name of the anonymous whistleblower whose complaint ultimately led to Trump’s impeachment by the House, and to attack House Speaker Nanacy Pelosi, who, he wrote, “should spend more time in her decaying city and less time on the Impeachment Hoax!”

Yair Rosenbeg, a senior writer at Tablet Magazine, shared Trump’s Pelosi tweet and commented: “Five Jews are in the hospital after being chopped up at a menorah lighting, following a spree of anti-Semitic assaults in NY all Hanukkah. Fortunately, President Tweet is doing presidential things, reassuring the Jewish community and confronting the issue. Haha, who am I kidding.”

Trump’s daughter and senior adviser Ivanka Trump, who is Jewish, commented earlier on the stabbing assault, tweeting, “The vicious attack of a rabbi in Monsey, NY last night was an act of pure evil.

“As we pray for the victims, may the candles of Chanukah burn bright through this darkness,” she wrote.

Suspect in Hanukkah celebration stabbings Grafton Thomas, 37, from Greenwood Lake, leaves the Ramapo Town Hall in Airmont, New York after being arrested on December 29, 2019. (Photo by Kena Betancur / AFP)

Speaking at the scene of the attack on Sunday morning, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo called the rampage “an act of domestic terrorism,” adding that the state stood “in solidarity with all members of the Jewish community.”

President Reuven Rivlin said Sunday on Twitter that he was “shocked and devastated by the terrible terror attack in New York.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also denounced the rampage.

“Israel strongly condemns the latest expressions of anti-Semitism and the cruel attack in the middle of Hanukkah at the home of the rabbi in Monsey,” he said at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting on Sunday.

Tehran “strongly condemned” the United States on Monday for engaging in what it described as a clear example of terrorism, following a series of airstrikes against an Iranian proxy group that had carried out an attack on US forces in Iraq.

It was the first known US attack on an Iranian proxy in Iraq since 2011.

“With these attacks, the United States has shown its strong support for terrorism, disregarding the independence and sovereignty of countries, and must accept responsibility for the consequences of this illegal act,” state news agency IRNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi as saying.

The US carried out airstrikes against Kataeb Hezbollah (Hezbollah Battalion) in Iraq and Syria on Sunday, killing 19 fighters, two days after a barrage of 30 or more rockets was fired at the K1 Iraqi military base in Kirkuk, an oil-rich region north of Baghdad, killing a US civilian contractor and wounding four US service members as well as Iraqi security forces.

The US on Monday released what it said was video footage of the attacks.

Israel praised the strikes, with Foreign Minister Israel Katz tweeting that they were a “turning point in the regional response to Iran & its proxies” and asserting that “if Iran fails to understand the power of the US they will be making a big mistake.”

“In response to repeated Kata’ib Hizbollah (KH) attacks on Iraqi bases that host… coalition forces, US forces have conducted precision defensive strikes against five KH facilities in Iraq and Syria,” a Pentagon spokesman said in a statement on Sunday.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz at a Likud election campaign stop in Jerusalem, September 16, 2019. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The strikes against three locations in Iraq and two in Syria “will degrade KH’s ability to conduct future attacks” against coalition forces, the statement added.

“KH has a strong linkage with Iran’s Quds Force and has repeatedly received lethal aid and other support from Iran that it has used to attack” coalition forces, the Pentagon said, referring to the external arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Kataeb Hezbollah is led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one of Iraq’s most powerful men. In 2009, the State Department linked him to the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, designated a foreign terrorist organization by President Donald Trump earlier this year.

The Lebanon-based Hezbollah movement also denounced the US strikes, calling them a “foolish decision” and stating that those responsible will “bear the consequences.”

“We strongly condemn the brutal and obscene American aggression against Kataeb Hezbollah positions in Iraq,” the group said Monday. “Those who made the decision to attack will soon discover the stupidity of this criminal decision, its consequences and its ramifications.”

Iraqi army units are deployed during military operations of the Iraqi Army’s Seventh Brigade in Anbar, Iraq on December 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Nasser Nasser)

While the two groups share a name they are not connected, although both are backed by Tehran.

Speaking in Florida on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that he, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley had discussed “other options that are available” to respond to Iran with US President Donald Trump.

“We will take additional actions as necessary to ensure that we act in our own self-defense and we deter further bad behavior from militia groups or from Iran,” he declared.

Pompeo said the “decisive response” made clear that the US ”will not stand for the Islamic Republic of Iran to take actions that put American men and women in jeopardy.”

The military spokesman for Iraq’s outgoing prime minister Abel Abdel Mahdi decried “a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (left) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley (right) listen as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a statement on Iraq and Syria, December 29, 2019. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

Another powerful pro-Iran faction, Assaib Ahl al-Haq — whose leaders were recently hit with US sanctions — called for Americans to withdraw from Iraq.

“The American military presence has become a burden for the Iraqi state and a source of threat against our forces,” it said in a statement. “It is therefore imperative for all of us to do everything to expel them by all legitimate means.”

The US maintains some 5,000 troops in Iraq. They are there based on an invitation by the Iraqi government to assist and train in the fight against the Islamic State group.

The militia strike and US counterstrike come as months of political turmoil roil Iraq. About 500 people have died in anti-government protests in recent months, most of them demonstrators killed by Iraqi security forces.