WarSclerotic

DEBKAfile – Iran crosses red line, can enrich uranium up to 20pc grade.

January 25, 2010, 11:22 AM (GMT+02:00)

Ahmadinejad throws down another gauntlet

Attaining the ability to enrich uranium up to 20 percent grade brings Iran dangerously close to “break-out” point for a nuclear weapon capability, DEBKAfile‘s intelligence sources report. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised the “good news” would be announced during the Feb. 1-11 celebrations of the Islamic Revolution. The “news” also prompted an urgent cabinet meeting in Jerusalem last week.

Ahmadinejad’s announcement is a provocative demonstration of contempt for the six world powers and their offer to trade Iran’s low-grade uranium for 20 pc enriched product overseas. By going public on the banned process and abandoning concealment, Iran’s rulers are throwing down the gauntlet to them and Israel.

DEBKAfile‘s Iranian sources report that the hawks of the Islamic regime led by Ahmadinejad and spiritual ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have won the day for their tactics of jumping ahead of any possible US-led or Israel steps against their nuclear program with its own aggressive initiatives.

The Iranian president’s enrichment announcement at a time that the Obama administration is pondering tough sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards was part of this policy; so were the Syrian and Hizballah declarations of military preparedness for a purported Israeli attack last week, taking advantage of an IDF war game to raise the alarm.

Our political sources predict that Tehran’s provocative move will be met with more of the five months of foot-dragging with which Washington and Jerusalem have met Iran’s contempt for one deadline after another for ending nuclear enrichment.

Both will continue to dither and pretend that stiff sanctions can scotch the Iranian nuclear threat. Tehran has meanwhile made good use of those five months to go forward and achieve a 20 pc enrichment capability.

The only straight talk from any Western leader has come from French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

Saturday, Jan. 23, he told visiting Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri that France has evidence Iran is developing nuclear weapons contrary to its claims. He warned that Israel “would not stand by while Iran develops nuclear weapons.”

Middle East News | Egypt’s Mubarak defends Gaza border barrier.

Mubarak said Egypt has plenty of documented information” that “rhetoric campaigns” to attack his country were organized in “a sister country”

CAIRO (Al Arabiya, Agencies)

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Sunday defended the construction of an underground barrier on the border with the Gaza Strip as a matter of national security and sovereignty.

“The works and reinforcements on our eastern border are a matter of Egyptian sovereignty. We do not accept a debate on the issue with anyone,” Mubarak said in a speech to mark Police Day.

Eizenkot: Reports of tensions in North ‘virtual reality’ | Israel | Jerusalem Post.

While threatening to use disproportionate force in the event of a new conflict with Hizbullah, OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot downplayed recent media reports regarding Israeli plans to attack Lebanon.

OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eizenkot
Photo: Channel 2

“Reports in the media about tension in the North is a virtual reality that has no grounds in reality,” Eizenkot said during a conference at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, while adding that the IDF was “continuously upgrading and improving its capabilities.”

Eizenkot’s remarks came one day after Likud Minister Yossi Peled said that another war with Hizbullah was inevitable.

On Saturday night, the Prime Minister’s Office also distanced itself from Peled’s remarks and issued a statement that Israel “is not looking for any confrontation with anyone. Israel is interested in peace.”

Eizenkot said that the IDF’s working assumption was that Syria has transferred all types of arms, missiles and weapons in its arsenal to Hizbullah.

“Hizbullah is different today than in 2006,” he said. “It has significantly increased its missile capability and can operate from deep inside Lebanon and penetrate deep into Israel.”

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Eizenkot said that he believed the IDF had the “moral” right to disproportionately attack Hizbullah strongholds inside Lebanese villages in Southern Lebanon if Israel was attacked by the Iranian-backed guerilla group.

In an apparent reference to UNIFIL claims that Hizbullah was no longer present in southern Lebanon, Eizenkot said that it was building up its forces and storing its weapons inside the 160 Shiite villages in southern Lebanon.

“There are holes in UNIFIL’s mandate since it cannot operate in built-up areas,” he said, while stressing that the peacekeeping force has hindered Hizbullah’s ability to move freely along the border with Israel.

“Hizbullah is the one that is turning these areas into a battleground,” Eizenkot said, adding that during the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israeli warnings to the civilian population allowed senior Hizbullah leaders to escape, including Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

Earlier in the day, outgoing UNIFIL commander-general Claudio Graziano denied that arms had been smuggled to Hizbullah in southern Lebanon.

Speaking to Army Radio, Graziano instead criticized Israel for violating UN Resolution 1701, citing IAF forays into Lebanese airspace. The resolution ended the Second Lebanon War and bolstered the UN presence in southern Lebanon to ensure the prevention of renewed conflict between Israel and Hizbullah.

“There are Israeli violations of 1701, and this undermines the credibility of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army,” Graziano said. “Even if Israel says that the flights are a vital step meant to prevent smuggling and provide intelligence, they are a violation of state sovereignty, and furthermore, humiliation.”

In Israel, there are assertions that Hizbullah is getting stronger and continuing to smuggle weapons from Syria and Iran. Proof of this, sources in Jerusalem are reported to have said, include the explosion six months ago of a weapons cache only ten kilometers from the Israeli-Lebanese border in the town of Hirbat Salim – weapons said to have originated in Syria.

During the Army Radio interview, Graziano took issue with the Israeli assessment, insisting that weapons had not been smuggled into southern Lebanon. Graziano did not similarly criticize Hizbullah and he stressed that in recent years there have been no incidents of violence between UNIFIL forces and Hizbullah.

A Beirut cabinet minister was quoted as saying Sunday that the situation in Lebanon was similar to that which preceded the IDF invasion in 1982.

The minister, Ra’azi Eloraidi, called for Lebanese unity in dealing with the “Israeli threats.” He added that the Lebanese people should not be made to pay the price for the Iranian nuclear issue.

Against the background of reports of anxiety in the North, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon reiterated during a meeting in Jerusalem Sunday with Michael Williams, the UN’s special coordinator on Lebanon, that Israel had no interest in an escalation of tensions with Lebanon or Hizbullah.

“Our first and foremost interest is to preserve the quiet and stability in the North,” Ayalon said. “Therefore we should work together with UNIFIL and the Lebanese army to stop arms smuggling and violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.”

Ayalon said that the continued violation of 1701 and the smuggling of arms from Iran and Syria to Hizbullah were the central threats to stability in the north.

Williams, according to Ayalon’s office, welcomed Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s statement Saturday night distancing himself from comments Minister without Portfolio Yossi Peled said that same day regarding the inevitability of another military conflict with Lebanon.

The two men also discussed Ghajar and various proposals for an Israeli pullback from the northern part of the town, which straddles the Lebanese border.

Prior to meeting Ayalon, Williams met Foreign Ministry director-general Yossi Gal, who has been leading the Israeli team negotiating with UNIFIL over a possible withdrawal from the town, which straddles the Lebanese border. Discussions with UNIFIL have centered on how UNIFIL forces would be deployed in and around Ghajar – following an IDF pullback – to prevent Hizbullah from infiltrating men or arms into Israel through the village.

The government has reportedly approved a plan to turn over control of the northern half of the village to UNIFIL. No physical barrier would be built between the northern and southern parts of the village, but rather UNIFIL would patrol both the northern half and the perimeter.

Jerusalem Post staff contributed to the report.

Ahmadinejad promises new developments in nuclear fuel upgrade – Haaretz – Israel News.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday there would soon be what he called “happy news” about developments in Iran’s nuclear programs, but did not elaborate.

The president told reporters in the parliament that the news would involve the upgrade of low-enriched uranium from 3.5 to 20 per cent.

Ahmadinejad said an announcement of the new developments would be officially made in February, when the country will celebrate the 31st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

According to a plan brokered last year by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran’s low-enriched uranium was to be processed by Russia and France for use as fuel in a Tehran medical reactor.

Iran however rejected the original plan and said it would either be ready to purchase fuel, swap its uranium in three different phases on Iranian soil, or process it by itself.

On Saturday, the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat quoted French President Nicolas Sarkozy as saying that Israel will not sit idly by while Iran continues to work on its nuclear program, Israel Radio reported.

According to the report, Sarkozy, who recently met with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, reportedly told him that France has proof Iran is working to develop an atomic bomb.

“Israel might take action to prevent the Iranian regime, which wants to wipe it off the map, from obtaining a nuclear bomb,” Sarkozy reportedly said.

Sarkozy also reportedly said that if he had to choose between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he would prefer the Israeli leader despite some diplomatic differences they may have.

Sarkozy says Iran developing nuclear bomb

PARIS, Jan. 23 (UPI) — Nicolas Sarkozy said Saturday Iran is developing atomic weapons and Israel could act to eliminate that threat, unidentified aides to the French president said.

Sarkozy reportedly made the comments during a meeting in Paris with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, aides of the French president told the Arabic newspaper al-Hayat. Al-Hayat did not name the aides.

Sarkozy reportedly said France has proof Iran is building nuclear weapons and Israel will not tolerate atomic proliferation in Iran, Ynetnews.com reported.

On other matters, Sarkozy said France would sell the Lebanese government whatever military equipment is needed for Lebanon to defend itself against militant extremists, his aides told al-Hayat.

via UPI NewsTrack TopNews – UPI.com.

Russia’s FSB seeks Israeli drones – UPI.com.

		An IDF Armored Personnel Carrier team holds up a Hezbollah flag and Lebanese flag as they return from fighting in Lebanon in July 2006. (Archive

Syria and Hezbollah have gone on alert anticipating an Israeli attack on Lebanon, the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat daily reported on Friday.

According to the report, Hezbollah has been monitoring with caution the reinforcement of Israel Defense Forces troops along the Lebanon border.

Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general, Naeem Kassem, said the group was preparing to retaliate although it had no proof of any such Israeli plans.

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Syria has meanwhile begun to call up reserves troops, including nationals residing in Lebanon.

The IDF responded to the report by denying any plans for renewing conflict against Lebanon.

via Hezbollah and Syria on alert fearing IDF attack on Lebanon – Haaretz – Israel News.

An Incremental Leap in Defense Deployment of the Civilian Front | Global Terrorism.

The Shiite Lebanese are fleeing Hezbollah’s ministate – International Analyst Network.

Elias Youssef Bejjani
	21 Jan 2010
The war news and ongoing widespread rumors about an imminent, unprecedented, devastating, unconventional and massive Israeli attack against Hezbollah, Iran and Syria are causing very serious and extensive contagious public moods of tension, anxiety and fear among the Lebanese Shiite community. Apparently, there is a huge gap of confidence and trust between Hezbollah’s leadership’s imaginary allegations of power and the Shiite residents of its cantons and ministate. Hezbollah’s Party General Secretary Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, his deputy, Sheik Naem Qassim, as well as numerous high ranging party’s officials very close to Nasrallah have been lately uttering almost on a daily basis bold empty rhetorical threats to annihilate Israel, defeat and humiliate its worldwide reputable, strong and highly efficient military apparatus, change the region’s face, and impose a new pro-Syrian and -Iranian resistance status quo in the Middle East in any upcoming war with the Jewish state. Nasrallah’s sickening and high pitched bragging of Hezbollah’s military powers, both offensive and deterring, are not bought or swallowed by the majority of his own Shiite community. How could they take his delusional rhetoric seriously when they had suffered vast and enormous losses in both lives and property during the 2006 war that Hezbollah instigated through kidnapping and killing members of an Israeli army border patrol? How could they believe Nasrallah’s big lie of the so called “divine victory”, in that war when they had lived for 33 days in an actual hell and almost one million of them were displaced and forced to take refuge in schools, government buildings, churches, mosques, parks, hospitals and roads, while Nasrallah and his party’s top notch leadership were hiding in their fortified underground bunkers. The Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah unveiled in a report published today that Hezbollah and its armed ally, the Shiite Amal Movement, are secretly but firmly and seriously trying through both force, and persuasion to hold back the massive fleeing of the Shiite community members from Hezbollah’s ministate stronghold located in the suburbs of Beirut. The daily report quoted anonymous political resources, members in the eighth of March coalition spearheaded by Hezbollah, saying that a large Hezbollah – Amal military scale campaign is proceeding to stop the fleeing process. Those fleeing are mainly heading either to Syria or to the Shiite Bekaa Valley towns and villages adjacent to the Syrian borders. It is worth mentioning that during the 2006 war, the almost one million Shiites who were forced to flee south Lebanon and the Hezbollah mini-state in the suburbs of Beirut were welcomed and hosted by the Druze, Sunni Muslim and Christian regions of Chouf, Alley, Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, Kesrwan, Baabda, Jbiel, Zahlie and many other Lebanese cities. According to the Al-Seyassah report, the hospitability situation at the present time is extremely different and the Druze, Sunni, Christian cities that suffered Hezbollah’s bloody invasions of May 2008 are no longer welcoming the Shiites. Many stressed and scared Shiite families living in Beirut’s southern suburbs (Hezbollah’s mini-state) and its surrounding areas are calling friends and relatives in Syria and many European countries to rent apartments for them. The report said that Shiite migration to Europe, Africa and Latin American countries where there are large Shiite communities has hit a record high since the beginning of last December. Meanwhile, Israel has made it very clear that its military response to any Hezbollah missile attack will be devastating, crippling and that Lebanon’s entire public institutions, infrastructure, and army will be targeted. The Israeli leadership officially warned the Lebanese government several times lately that it will be accountable for any Hezbollah offenses after members of this terrorist Iranian organization were given ministerial portfolios. The beating of war drums is very serious in both Lebanon and Israel as well as in Syria and Iran. Numerous reliable sources in Paris, New York, Cairo, Amman, Tel Aviv and Lebanon strongly believe that the war is inevitable and will take place within a few months. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri expressed yesterday his fear of a possible Israeli operation against Lebanon in an interview published on by the French newspaper Le Monde. Hariri said: “We fear an Israeli operation. Last week, 25 over flights for the Israeli fighter jets were recorded in one day”. Officials from the USA, EU, Turkey, Egypt, and many other Arab countries have been warning Lebanon of an Israeli invasion if Hezbollah continues to stockpile weapons. Israel’s military revealed on Monday that among this huge weaponry are Syrian-built missiles equipped with chemical war heads with ranges that could reach all Israeli cities. Reiterating and stressing what was stated in my previous editorial of January 18/10: The Free World must be aware that the Lebanese people alone can no longer stop Hezbollah from taking over the whole country, topple its free and democratic regime and replace it by a replica of the Iranian mullah’s Islamic republic. The Free World and the moderate Arab countries must come to Lebanon’s rescue because Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist army, threatens not only Lebanon, but also all the Arab countries and nations of the Free World. All these countries should understand that by helping Lebanon they will be helping themselves, because the same inferno that is now consuming Lebanon will reach them soon if not extinguished in Lebanon and the lunatic arsonist, Hezbollah, is disabled.