WarSclerotic

US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on Monday, in a much-anticipated summit against the backdrop of an ongoing American investigation into Moscow’s alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential elections. Despite complimentary allegations of collusion between then-candidate Trump’s campaign and Russian agents casting a shadow over the meet, there are many issues on the table that, however approached and the resulting deals cut, will go a long way towards determining the course of global events, especially in the Middle East.

In fact, both the war in Syria and the Iran nuclear deal are expected to top the agenda, with speculation already swirling about potential arrangements that could, for example, see the US recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea in return for the Kremlin’s support for renewed American sanctions on Tehran; or, perhaps, a commitment by Moscow to expel Iranian forces from Syria in exchange for a partial withdrawal of US troops from the country.

Overall, analysts are speaking of a “grand bargain” of sorts that would update and formalize the terms of the Washington-Moscow relationship.

Notably, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu traveled to Russia last week to reiterate his “red lines” with respect to Syria, a combustible arena where the competing interests of regional and global powers intersect, thus making it a perennial hotspot for the possible emergence, whether intentional or otherwise, of new and protracted military engagements. Most acutely, the Israeli leader insists that Shi’ite forces under Iranian control, including Hezbollah, be banned from operating anywhere near the Golan Heights, and, more broadly, that these fighters, along with their Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, ultimately be completely removed from the country.

Over the weekend, Netanyahu further pressed these positions in a phone conversation with President Trump, whom he again thanked for taking a hardline approach to Iran. As to the atomic pact specifically, which the Europeans are feverishly trying to salvage following the White House’s withdrawal from the agreement earlier this year, Sunni Arab nations are as concerned as the Jewish state about the Islamic Republic’s potential nuclearization and, like Netanyahu, have made their voices heard, albeit mainly behind-the-scenes.

Accordingly, from Jerusalem to Riyadh, Amman to Beirut, all eyes will be on the Finnish capital, as the former Cold War foes plot a path forward.

“There is an intention by the US and Russia to arrive at a form of worldwide agreement about their respective ‘spheres of influence,'” Dr. Zaki Shalom, a Senior Research Fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and an expert on the role of superpowers in the Middle East, told The Media Line. “It is similar to what took place after the Second World War when there was a deal between [then-U.S. president] Roosevelt, [former British leader] Churchill and [Soviet chief] Stalin regarding who controls what in order to avoid any direct clashes.

“[In this respect], the Americans have sent a message to Moscow that they are willing to give Putin free reign in Syria and that Assad can remain in power. Also, President Trump realizes that Russia’s hold of Crimea is essentially a fait accompli. Given this understanding,” Dr. Shalom elaborated, “President Trump is likely to push for the Iranians to leave Syria, while asking Russia to accept dramatic changes to the nuclear accord between world powers and Tehran. As per North Korea, Washington will want Russian support for the demilitarization [of the Peninsula].”

Regarding the Middle East, strengthening the atomic deal and curbing Iran’s territorial expansionism are viewed by many analysts as make-or-break issues that, in the absence of progress, could have devastating consequences.

Already, Tehran has assumed a stranglehold over Lebanon through its Hezbollah proxy and has made inroads in Yemen and Iraq. Syria, however, could be the straw that shatters the camel’s back as Israel seems intent on preventing Iran from gaining a permanent foothold in the country and has conducted well over one hundred cross-border strikes over the past years to this end. Should the Islamic Republic continue its military build-up, Jerusalem’s hand may be forced and a full-blown conflict could ensue.

Yet it appears that both the US and Russia share an interest in averting such an eventuality.

As the war in Syria winds down, Moscow has become less dependent on Iranian-backed fighters to do its dirty work on the ground and, overall, wants to avoid future instability that could threaten regime and, as a corollary, jeopardize its military gains. Therefore, according to Dr. Zaki, “while Putin might not be able to forcibly evict Iranian troops, he can give Israel the green-light to continue attacking their assets inside Syria. Without Russian protection, the Iranians will essentially be left alone without the ability to respond to Israel. In the end, it may be that only a limited number of ‘advisers’ will remain in order for Tehran to save face.”

Avi Melamed, Salisbury Fellow of Intelligence and Middle East Affairs at the Washington-based Eisenhower Institute, similarly believes that a US-Russia deal on Syria will come at Iran’s expense. “Putin is at the phase in which he wants to collect dividends in Syria. While he has to take into consideration the needs of all actors, he does not want the Iranians to become too powerful. This is not to say that Tehran will be fully [neutralized], but rather forced to make concessions. It will be a disappointment from their perspective given the massive investment made.”

In terms of the US military presence, Melamed contended to The Media Line that he does not expect any major changes to the current dynamic. “In the context of Syria, the American military deployment is not like the one in Afghanistan or Iraq. There is an aerial component largely [taking flight] from northern Jordan and another one through [allied] Kurdish forces east of the Euphrates. I do not see this being drawn down.”

Finally, he concluded, as regards the nuclear deal “President Trump has the upper hand because the major blow is the withdrawal of Western companies from the Iranian economy and Putin cannot compensate for the losses.” This, coupled with the fact that France, Britain and Germany have to date been unable to reach a new compromise with Iran and will not be sheltered from US secondary sanctions, suggests the atomic pact may soon be totally abrogated.

Superficially, then, it appears that Israel and its Sunni neighbors stand to have their positions advanced in Helsinki by two of the world’s greatest superpowers. Whether this fosters a period of wait-and-see quiet or increased tensions will depend primarily on how aggressively Iran responds to the prospective setback.

IDF Chief of Staff and Education Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly faced off during a cabinet meeting regarding the escalating security situation in southern Israel after Bennett demanded that the IDF bomb Gazans who launch flaming kites into Israel.

According to Channel 2, Bennett asked Eizenkot why “Why not shoot anyone who fires an aerial weapon at our towns and against the terror cells? Why shoot next to them and not at them? There is nothing legally preventing this- were are talking about terrorists in every way.”

Eizenkot replied that “I do not think that shooting boys and children who are the ones who launch the balloons and the kites is correct.”

Bennett then asked Eizenkot “what if we are talking about an adult who is identified as an adult?”

“Are you proposing to drop a bomb from an airplane on a squadron of kite and balloon launchers?” asked Eizenkot. After Bennett answered in the affirmative, Eizenkot said that “this contradicts my operational and moral position.”

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz also complained that the media was twisting the coverage of the incendiary kites to make it appear as if Israel was refraining from responding. “They are saying that Israel is burning, Israel is burning. Israel is not burning,” Steinitz contended. Netanyahu agreed. “The media is intensifying the matter presenting things in a distorted way,” he said.

For over three months, Hamas has launched burning kites and balloons into Israel. Notoriously hard to spot and extremely potent during Israel’s dry summer months, the kites have burned up large portions of the south and caused hundreds of millions in damage.

The IDF has struggled to find an appropriate response to the kites whose small size make them impervious to radar. When the phenomenon first began, the IDF attempted to down the kites using amateur drone pilots before moving on to a strategy of preemptive drone strikes. Neither doctrine has found success and the military is under increasing pressure to respond forcefully to what has been dubbed ‘kite terror’.

Naftali Bennett has been taking an increasingly hawkish line towards Gaza and has been urging Israel to escalate it’s response towards Hamas. On Saturday night, following reports of a ceasefire between Israel and the Gaza terrorist organizations, Bennett alleged that the move was a “grave mistake” and called on the IDF to strengthen its response.

“Restraint creates escalation,” said Bennett. “Those who refrain to respond to the violation of our sovereignty and refrain from fundamental actions impose on us an ongoing war of attrition. The IDF must be ordered to act with force, sophistication and thoroughness.”

UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov appealed to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Sunday to halt rocket and mortar attacks on Israel. He also called on Palestinians to stop launching incendiary kites toward Israel.

Mladenov, who played a key role in reaching Saturday’s cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip, made his appeal during a news conference in Gaza City.

“I have to appeal to all Palestinians in Gaza,” Mladenov said. “I have to appeal to all parents of children in Gaza today to step back and keep the protests peaceful.”

The UN representative was referring to the ongoing weekly protests along the border between the Gaza Strip and Israel, which Palestinians call the “March of Return.”

“I appeal to the Palestinian factions to not provoke incidents at the fence, to stop firing rockets and mortars, to stop the incendiary kites and to give peace a chance,” Mladenov said.

“This is a confrontation that nobody wants, nobody needs – a confrontation from which everybody would lose. Palestinians in Gaza for the last decade have lived in three conflicts. Israelis across the fence have lived with a constant threat of rocket attacks for the last decade. This cycle has to stop. It has to end. We are one step away from another confrontation, and everybody needs to take a step back.”

Mladenov said he was aware that, given the difficult conditions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, “it’s very difficult to believe the international community or anyone else who comes and tells you that your lives will be improved.”

He also appealed to Israel to display “restraint in its responses to the situation” in Gaza. “I appeal to [Israeli] snipers not to fire at children,” Mladenov said. “I appeal to everybody to step back from the brink.”

The UN representative also appealed to the international community not to forget the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the Palestinians “who have lived for generations without a state.” The Palestinians in the Strip, he added, “have had enough of war.”

“Parents should be able to allow their children to play freely in the streets,” Mladenov said. “We in the international community have a responsibility to move immediately and live up to the expectation of providing not just assistance to the people of Gaza, but also charting a political way forward. Our allies in this are the Palestinian people themselves. Our partners are the Palestinian government and anyone who wants to see an end to this current escalation.”

Mladenov said there was only one way to move forward – “by restoring calm and ending the shelling and firing.” The second step, he said, would be to “solve the humanitarian problems of Gaza, to create jobs for people, provide electricity, fix the healthcare system and provide water.”

THE UN is working, together with its partners, on a specific plan to immediately move on these priorities, in coordination with the Palestinian government, Mladenov stated. He acknowledged, however, that fixing the humanitarian problems of Gaza would not solve the political problems.

“Fixing the political problem means two things,” he explained. “Improving access and movement for the people of Gaza through Israel and Egypt. We will continue working with the Israeli authorities to improve access and movement restrictions for Gaza and to allow for more exports and imports for the people here. Without an economy, without people seeing opportunities, another escalation will come by very quickly.”

The second step, according to the top UN representative, is for Hamas and Fatah to return to the “reconciliation process.” He appealed to the two rival parties to take Egypt’s recent initiatives to end the Palestinian internecine dispute very seriously.

Meanwhile, Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip said on Sunday that their movement gained the upper hand in the latest flare-up of violence. The Palestinians, they added, will continue to hold the weekly protests along the border with Israel.

“The Palestinian resistance groups had the final say,” said Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. He was speaking during the funeral of two Palestinian teenagers, Luay Kheil and Amir al-Nimra, who were killed in an Israel Air Force strike in Gaza City on Saturday. Haniyeh said that Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip were determined to prevent Israel from “imposing new rules of engagement.”

Haniyeh said that the protests along the border between the Gaza Strip and Israel “will continue and intensify until the problems of the people are solved and the blockade is lifted.” He said that he met in Gaza City with Mladenov and told him that the Palestinians no longer believe in promises and want to see tangible results on the ground. “The blockade on the Gaza Strip has to end once and for all,” Haniyeh reportedly told the UN official.

The Political-Security Cabinet on Sunday instructed the defense establishment and the IDF to continue the policy of response that began Saturday in which the IDF responds to every attack on Israeli territory which originates from the Gaza Strip.

The IDF struck a series of Hamas targets Saturday after terrorists fired over 100 rockets at Israel from Gaza.

According to the directive, there will be an identical military response to any attack involving a rocket, an incendiary kite or a Molotov cocktail and will include a direct attack by the launchers rather than near them. However, it was decided not to attack directly if the launchers were identified as children.

The Cabinet meeting was attended by Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, ISA Director Nadav Argaman and Head of the Intelligence Directorate Major General Hartzi Halevy.

The ministers mainly wanted to hear the opinion of the heads of the defense establishment regarding the intensification of the response to terrorism by incendiary kites and balloons. The report revealed that the IDF received authorization to intensify its response and has even acted on this authorization,

Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman used his right of speech to criticize ministers Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Katz, who were interviewed today by the media and expressed their protest against the IDF’s perceived inaction against the phenomenon of kite terrorism.

He demanded that the two not publicly criticize the army, the government and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Other ministers wondered what the cease-fire achieved on the Gaza border with Hamas was and heard that in the summations related to the creation of the fire, there was talk of a gradual halt that would within days turn to a complete end of the launching of balloons and incendiary missiles into Israeli territory.

Throughout the day on Sunday the Israeli Air Force struck three cells of Palestinians terrorists who launched incendiary balloons towards Israel from the northern and central Gaza Strip.

According to a senior Air Force officer the IDF has been preparing for an escalation in the south for several weeks and struck targets which had been chosen in advance.

“We attacked a range of targets, including some surprising ones, after weeks of preparing for this day,” he said, warning nonetheless that “this is not all of the power we can bring. We have a broad list of high-quality targets, and we are prepared to act day and night.”

The senior air force officer said their planes were instructed not to hit Hamas operatives, as well as civilians who are not involved in the launching of incendiary balloons and devices into Israel.

“We acted in a very precise manner, in the most crowded place in the world, without harming those uninvolved in the fighting,” he said.

“The other side is learning. They [Hamas] got used to Israeli jets attacking at night; and military compounds are in populated areas. While we want to destroy their infrastructure, we wanted to do that without hitting civilians or fighters which is more challenging when it happens during the daylight,” the officer said.

“Our intelligence is very precise,” he continued. “If the other side remains quiet so will we. But if not, we are ready and we know what to do in order to return the quiet to the residents of the south.”

One Hamas training facility destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Saturday was known as the “Palestinian national library,” the IDF said Sunday morning.

The “building which was once a civilian residential building became a terror building,” the senior Air Force officer said.

The largely abandoned building in the al-Shati refugee camp was located next to the Sheikh Zayed mosque which sustained light damage from the strike which killed two Palestinian teenagers identified by The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry as 15-year-old Amir al-Nimra and 16-year-old Louay Kahil.

Another 25 people were injured in the strike despite the IDF stating that it had warned residents in advance of the strike which was in response to repeated mortar and rocket barrages from the coastal enclave towards southern Israel communities.

According to the army the building was targeted because it was being used by Hamas as an urban warfare training facility and had a tunnel underneath it for underground warfare training connected to a network of other Hamas tunnels in Gaza.

“Hamas continues using civilian infrastructure for military purposes, and in doing so endangers the civilians under its charge,” the IDF said in a statement.

“The building’s five floors were supposed to be used for residents of the Strip, for public and government services or at least for housing. Instead, for the past few years, the large building has been used as a training facility for Hamas’s fighting battalions for urban warfare, exercises in conquering buildings and recently as a facility for surviving inside tunnels — thanks to an attack tunnel that was dug underneath the building,” the statement continued.

The IDF holds the terror group which has ruled Gaza since 2007 “is responsible for the events transpiring in the Gaza Strip and emanating from it and will bear the consequences for its actions against Israeli civilians and Israeli sovereignty. The IDF views Hamas’ terror activity with great severity and is prepared for a wide variety of scenarios,” the army said.