WarSclerotic

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took a massive delegation with him to Baghdad on Monday. He showed them off at a long table in meetings with Iraqi officials; at least 16 men were present on each side. Together they are signing a variety of agreements that aim to cement the Iranian alliance with Iraq.

It’s all about appearances in this visit. Iran wants to show its power in Iraq and illustrate that it is the country’s strongest partner. Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of Iran, said that on the first day of the Iran-Iraq summit, business leaders and officials had agreed on new visa arrangements, a new railway and joint industrial zones that aimed to increase trade to $20 billion. “Two more days, two more cities” he tweeted.

This represents the debate taking place in Iraq today. After the defeat of ISIS, the question is not only who will control Iraq but also whether Baghdad can retake its sovereignty and act independently after years of war and instability. Some Iraqi lawmakers, especially those linked to Shi’ite political parties, are trying to get the US to leave Iraq. At a Parliamentary Defense and Security Committee meeting, according to Iraq watcher David M. Witty, a statement noted that “Iraq will not become a milk cow for the US. We will not comply with US demands that we pay for US presence in Iraq. We will vote on a law soon requiring the end of foreign forces in Iraq.”

From Iran’s point of view, nothing could be going better in this visit. Tehran will showcase its alliance and meet with sectors of society, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the leading Shi’ite cleric who helped raise the militias that fought ISIS. Zarif says that the US cannot stop Iran’s increasing relations with Iraq. But he seeks to downplay the view that Iran is too heavy-handed there. “We are not here to take action against any country or interfere in any country,” he said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani arrived in Baghdad on Monday morning. He stressed the close alliance between Iran and Iraq during comments at Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport. Iraqi President Barham Salih also said that Iraq was working to make sure that US sanctions on Iran, that might potentially reduce Iran-Iraq trade, would not damage Iran. The visit underscores the pressure Washington faces in its Iraq policy and the challenges to US President Donald Trump’s attempt to isolate Iran.

The visit to Iraq comes as the US-led Coalition is trying to defeat ISIS in its last stronghold in Syria. In addition, ISIS has been carrying out hit-and-run attacks across Iraq in the last year, and there are concerns that a new insurgency could develop in the next year. Tens of thousands of ISIS members escaped Baghuz or surrendered and may pose a danger. Iran has emphasized that it was one of Iraq’s main backers against ISIS and that Tehran wants to enter a new stage in Tehran-Baghdad relations.

A key part of those relations are the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), a group of mostly Shi’ite militias that became government paramilitaries in 2016. These units play a key role in security in Iraq, but also stoke sectarian tensions in Sunni areas. They also cause controversy in Shi’ite areas where there are concerns that they absorb government budgets that are siphoned off from infrastructure in places like Basra.

The PMU groups are closely linked to Iran, and the US Treasury Department recently designated one of them – Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujabaa – on a sanctioned terrorist list. This has increased tensions between the designated group and US forces. In fact, Iraq’s Fatah Alliance, the second largest party in parliament, now wants to push for US troops to leave. Trump had said that the US might use Iraq to “watch” Iran, but now the US finds itself on the back foot in Iraq as Iran makes this high profile visit. Iraq’s President has stressed that the country must not be an area of tension for Washington and Tehran.

US allies in Iraq, particularly among the Kurdish Regional Government in the north, now wonder about the US commitment. It is unclear how the US envisions its long-term goals in Iraq. However, Iran is clearer. It wants to increase trade to $13 billion a year and it wants to sign other agreements. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force that played a key role in Iran extending its influence in Iraq and Syria, received the Order of Zulfaqar from Iran’s Ayatollah Khamanei over the weekend. This is Iran’s highest military order and a symbol of Soleimani’s power.

At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif – who had carried out a kind of prima donna threat to resign last month – was in Iraq to pave the way for Rouhani’s visit. Clearly, Zarif is now back in the picture and he is trying to burnish his image by showing off the Iran-Iraq alliance. Washington is quiet in the face of Rouhani’s visit, knowing that Iranian media will use this to show off what Press TV calls a “blow to Trump.” Iran’s main goal is to showcase its power and influence in the region and stake a claim to another part of the chessboard of the Middle East. With the defeat of ISIS, one more piece has been removed from the board, and Iran wants to fill that vacuum.

The United States will export more oil, natural gas and petroleum, a research firm found over the weekend.

The energy research firm Rystad Energy published the findings, carried by CNN, which revealed the Middle Eastern kingdom exports nearly seven million barrels of crude oil daily and two million barrels of natural gas and petroleum. The United States exports three million barrels of crude oil and five million barrels of natural gas and petroleum daily.

The change, should it come to pass, would be the first time the US has topped the Saudis since the latter began selling oil to overseas customers, the report said.

US-Saudi relations were strained in October after Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Two Shi’ite militia leaders spoke out over the weekend, with one threatening the US, and the other demanding American troops leave Iraq.

Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba spokesman Hashim al-Mousawi slammed the US and Israel after the US last week designated the group as a terrorist threat.

On March 5, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control placed Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba on its Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List, under what the office calls its Counter Terrorism Designation.

The US pointed to the organization itself and its leader as a threat, saying it has “committed, or poses a significant risk of committing acts of terrorism.”

The group, which is closely linked to Iran, in 2017 said US troops were a legitimate target. In February 2018, the group vowed to support Hezbollah in Lebanon in a war against Israel.

Last year, Iraqi MP Karim Alawi said the US was spying on Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Iran’s PressTV sought to argue that the move was dangerous and that Harakat Hezbollah had played a key role in the war on ISIS.

Mousawi told Fars News that the region faces a variety of US-driven plots, including a push for normalization with the “Zionist regime” and economic pressure on Iran. He argued that the Iranian backed “axis of resistance,” of which Harakat Hezbollah is a part, has defeated these plots, including attempts by the US to loot Syrian resources.

“Hezbollah [in Lebanon] today represents a large part of the Lebanese people and an integral part of Lebanon,” he boasted. He said the commanders of Harakat Hezbollah were prepared for a confrontation with the US. “We will not retreat in the face of any country that violates Iraqi sovereignty.”

Mousawi also said the group would use parliamentary means first, but that it viewed the conflict as a regional struggle. He made a point of condemning the US role in the Gulf and said the group had its own “Golan unit” to fight against Israel.

The presence of Shi’ite militias in Iraq, some of which fought the US after the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein, and most of which are closely linked to Iran, raises questions about the continued presence of US troops in Iraq. US forces returned to Iraq to help fight ISIS in 2014.

Initially that footprint was small, but it had grown with the war on ISIS, and to provide logistic support for US forces in Syria. When US President Donald Trump in December 2017 said the US would withdraw from Syria, he also told US forces at Al Asad Air Base in Iraq that the US would pull troops back to Iraq and “watch” Iran. This comes in the context of a US push against Iran’s role in the region and new sanctions rolled out last year.

Iraqi officials have rejected the US using Iraq to “watch” Iran. Iraqi President Barham Salih has said at least three times in the last two months that Iraq must not become a center of the Iran-US power struggle.

He and other Iraqi officials reiterated this statement at the Sulaimani Forum last week. Iraqi officials have said it is up to parliament to decide if US forces will stay. Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Fatah Alliance, the second largest party in parliament, has indicated that he opposes the US presence in Iraq. Amiri, a former fighter alongside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, is head of the Badr Organization, one of the largest of the Shi’ite militias which became part of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in 2014.

The PMU helped defeat ISIS and became an official Iraq paramilitary group in 2016. In 2017, then-US secretary of state Rex Tillerson caused controversy in Iraq when he said the Shi’ite-dominated PMU should “go home” now that the war on ISIS was over.

Haider al-Abadi, then prime minister of Iraq, told Tillerson that the PMU were the hope for the future of Iraq and the region. Their regional role has been on display as many of these Shi’ite units are not only closely allied to Iran, but also to Hezbollah. Qais Khazali, of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, visited the Lebanese border near Israel, and indicated he would support Hezbollah in a war with Israel. This is part of Iran’s plan to create a “road to the sea,” or a network of allied groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon that are either part of the state, or work as a parallel states supporting Iran and local armed groups.

The US sees this as a threat but doesn’t know how to confront it. US officials, such as National Security Adviser John Bolton, have called for the US to stay in Syria to counterbalance these Iranian-allied groups. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to Lebanon this month, according to reports. This will raise tensions with Hezbollah.

The issue of US bases in Iraq is also coming to a head this year. Amiri was quoted in Tasnim News over the weekend as saying he disagreed with any US presence. He also said he welcomed the visit of Iran’s president to Iraq.

The overall picture in Iraq is one in which the US faces an uphill struggle to maintain its presence as ISIS is defeated. The pro-Iranian parties sense that they are in control. Although the Kurdistan autonomous region has tended to support the US staying in Iraq to help fight ISIS remnants, the tensions with pro-Iranian Shi’ite parties and armed groups is growing.

Some Shi’ite militias have attempted to interrupt US patrols in Anbar Province and Mosul in recent months. US Inspector-General reports at the Defense Department also frequently mention these pro-Iranian groups as a threat in Iraq. That the leaders of the groups say they will use parliament for now to oppose the US presence means they seek a political solution at the moment, and are wary of an armed confrontation.