WarSclerotic

New evidence disclosed in Iran’s secret nuclear files taken by the Mossad show that its underground Fordow nuclear facility is older than it has admitted, according to a think-tank report.

This discovery could be significant, says the Institute for Science and International Security, because it shows that Iran is still lying to the international community about a nuclear facility that has no reasonable use other than military.

In 2009, the international community confronted Tehran with the fact that it had uncovered Fordow, which Iran had worked hard to conceal.

The catching of Iran red-handed building a secret underground nuclear facility at the time was the beginning of what rallied Russia, China and the UN Security Council to pressure the Islamic Republic with sanctions.

Those sanctions eventually led Tehran to sign the 2015 nuclear deal.

As part of the deal, Iran was obligated to disclose all facets of its nuclear program that it had not previously disclosed or regarding which it had provided false information.

Iran indicated that the facility dated back to 2007.

However, its secret nuclear files reviewed by the think-tank show that it may date back to as early as 2002, with extremely strong evidence that it dated back to at least 2004.

The report said that, “Iran’s determination to keep open this deeply buried enrichment site extended into the negotiations over the JCPOA [nuclear deal] and even today, despite the plant having no credible civilian nuclear justification.”

It continued saying, “The Nuclear Archive raises again the deception of Iran about its past nuclear weapons activities and raises profound questions about the true purpose of this facility” in the present and when the deal’s nuclear restrictions expire in the future.

The think-tank slammed the international community for permitting Iran to continue to operate Fordow, saying that “speaks volumes of its failure to first determine and then ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is truly peaceful.”

In an interview with The Jerusalem Post in January, the think-tank’s director, David Albright, said that there were 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges for enriching uranium at Fordow which could potentially be used to produce one to two nuclear bombs per year.

Like many issues with Iran, it is these ambiguities which also leave open questions about whether the Islamic Republic could develop more nuclear weapons than expected and at a faster speed.

Politicians from Israel and abroad warned Gaza’s terrorist organizations after two rockets were fired Thursday night at Tel Aviv.

Naftali Bennett, co-chairman of the New Right Party, told Channel 12 that the time has come to “deal with” the terror organizations, but distanced himself from talks about Qatari-funds transfers to the coastal enclave. He said classes would continue as regularly scheduled on Friday.

Benny Gantz, chairman of the Blue and White Party and ex-IDF chief, said the rockets require a “serious” response.

In a statement, he said the “time has come to deal with Hamas and eliminate its head,” calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to authorize the IDF to begin a program to “cut off Hamas.”

“The rocket fired tonight is a severe event,”  Blue and White politician Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday night, “and it joins a routine of terrorism which is unacceptable and directed mainly to Gaza border communities.”

He further said he trusts the IDF and those who lead it they’ll know how to react and “collect a price for any sort of breach of sovereignty.”

Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, a member of the security cabinet, said in a statement that the “serious” incident will result in an “appropriate response.”

Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai said in a statement that he would open the city’s bomb shelters.

Haim Jelin, former head of the Eshkol Regional Council and currently a member of Yesh Atid, invited his “friends from Gush Dan” to his bomb shelter near the Gaza border.
Eli Yishai, chairman of the Yachad Party, said in a statement that Netanyahu and the security cabinet must “wake up” to the danger at hand.

Avigdor Liberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beytenu Party, called on Israel to “return to the policy of punishing those responsible.”

Oren Hazan, ex-Likud member and chairman of the Tzomet Party, said in a statement that “it should not be that Israel” capitulates to “terror organizations,” while the Union of Right Wing Parties (URP) called on Israel to back up what is says about terror organizations with “actions” and “return security to the State of Israel.”

The Israeli military confirmed that two rockets were fired towards central Israel on Thursday evening, with at least two loud explosions heard in the Gush Dan region.

According to the IDF, although the Iron Dome missile defense system was activated, there were no interceptions as both rockets fell in open territory.

As a result of the rockets, Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be holding security consultations at the Kirya IDF Military Headquarters in Tel Aviv to discuss an Israeli response.

Local reports in Gaza said that Hamas had begun evacuating military posts in anticipation of retaliatory strikes by Israel.

While there were no special instructions given by the Home Front Command to residents of central Israel, the municipality of Tel Aviv has opened bomb shelters across the city.

According to initial reports, the two Fajr rockets were fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza, the second strongest group in the coastal enclave after Hamas.

IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Ronen Manelis said that the military still does not know who fired the rockets and both PIJ and Hamas later denied reports that it was responsible, saying that it did not play a role in the launching of the rockets.

According to a report in Haaretz, an Egyptian security delegation which had been in Gaza negotiating a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel left the Strip at Israel’s request following the rocket fire.

The United Nations and the Egyptians are working from outside of Gaza to try and restore calm to the situation.

PIJ has been assessed by IDF military intelligence as a factor increasing the risk of an escalation, since it is not under the direct control of Hamas and acts independently for its own interests.

The group first fired an Iranian-made missile at Tel Aviv during Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012 from the blockaded coastal enclave.

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt took to Twitter blaming Hamas for the rocket fire, tweeting: “Hamas violently suppresses its own people demonstrating against Hamas’ rule & failures today and NOW fires rockets at cities in Israel.  OUTRAGEOUS! This is what prevents the world from helping the people of Gaza! We strongly support Israel in defense of its citizens. Always!”

The IDF has warned that both Hamas and PIJ have restored their military capabilities to their pre-2014 strength, and expect that in the next war the southern communities bordering the Strip would be incessantly pounded with rockets and mortar attacks.

In late February, PIJ released a video claiming that it had developed a new missile with the help of Iran, capable of striking cities beyond Netanya. During a violent escalation between Israel and terror groups in the Strip in November, the group launched a new rocket that hit an apartment complex in the southern city of Ashkelon, killing one Palestinian man and injuring several others.

The IDF military intelligence assessment for 2019 has warned  that Israel is facing a high risk of military escalation in the Gaza Strip. Based on the assessment, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi has prioritized the southern front as one which could explode into war at any moment.

In one of his first visits as chief of staff, Kochavi went to the Southern Command, met with senior officers and approved operational plans for war, including setting up a centralized administrative unit to prepare a list of potential targets in Gaza in case a war should break out.

Named “Beit al-Maqdis,” a reference to Jerusalem, the operation was attended by the commander of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, and IRGC Aerospace Force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh. Fars News and Tasnim News both reported details of the operation, noting that, “for the first time, 50 Iranian drones on the RQ-170 [US Sentinel] model operated with a number of assault and combat drones.”

Salami said he appreciated the power of the IRGC’s air arm and that it shows that despite US sanctions, Iran is achieving success. Tehran says that it has created an indigenous and advanced copy of the Sentinel. Iran has showcased two versions of these copies since 2016, but video from the “Jerusalem” operation on Thursday showed them being lashed to trucks for the exercise. It wasn’t clear why a drone needs to be launched from a pick-up truck, if it is an “advanced” drone. Claiming that the IRGC is at the forefront of modern UAVs seemed to be in contrast to the photos from the operation, photos that the IRGC itself had released. However, Hajizadeh also pointed to drones that look like the US Predator MQ-1 as evidence that Iran has achieved results. The Shahed 129, first flown in 2012, is Iran’s copy of the Predator.

The point of the drill is to showcase Iran’s military prowess. It comes in the wake of a large naval drill in February and frequent new tests of ballistic missiles. Last year, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq and also at ISIS in Syria. It is flexing its muscles in the Persian Gulf and has allegedly supplied Houthi rebels in Yemen with advanced missile and drone technology.

Hajizadeh said that: “One of the features of this exercise is the power to design and plan co-flying UAVs in a very small geographic area that has brought about the rise of a new air power in Islamic Iran.” According to the reports, the drones operated in several provinces in Iran.