WarSclerotic

It was interesting to hear Benny Gantz address the AIPAC conference. With customary America patience, the large audience waited in line for the security checks.

And then he took the podium. Pleasant on the eyes, gesturing with his hands, talking as a teacher would to his students. It was a reasonable speech if somewhat bland. Nothing more. He discussed (almost) all the issues that every speaker before him had already exhausted: the Holocaust, our strength in unity, peace, immigration, family, the Jewish people’s common historical destiny, Israel takes care of all Jews across the globe, the Western Wall belongs to everyone and no to a Kahanist government; the unbreakable alliance between Israel and the United States, and thanks to President Donald Trump for thus far giving us recognition of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. (There was nothing about the historic withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, which was a gift of equal importance. Why mention Netanyahu?) And then he issued a warning to Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and all other thorns in our side. The applause from the crowd was somewhat restrained. There were scattered standing ovations. It didn’t electrify or ooze with charisma. There was even a joke or two sprinkled in. It was all well and good. He’s still an unknown commodity and didn’t give the impression that he felt at home.

2.

The interesting part of his speech was outlining Blue and White’s diplomatic policies, which are the same policies, more or less, as Netanyahu’s: a united Jerusalem; the Jordan Valley as a security buffer; the IDF will remain solely responsible for security (in other words, rejection of international peacekeeping forces), and “we will never retreat from the Golan Heights.” He didn’t offend anyone but also didn’t show how he was different from the Likud. These policies are more compatible with Moshe Ya’alon’s, although Gantz apparently leans more to the left of them, more in the vein of Yesh Atid MK Ofer Shelah. But we are in the home stretch before elections and every word counts. The running theme throughout his speech was “I’m a soldier” and “I have dedicated my life to the State of Israel and the Jewish people.” It was reminiscent of a speech Yitzhak Rabin gave at the White House back in the day: “I, I.D. No. 30743….” And now, Gantz wants us to similarly extrapolate that just as he commanded and led in the army, he can do the same with the country. What about the economy, technology, foreign policy and other critical areas – does military experience ensure success?

3.

And then U.S. Vice President Mike Pence took the stage and repeatedly brought the crowd to its feet. He also touched on the same topics but in his own colorful manner. He mentioned Trump often and discussed the current administration’s uncompromising commitment to Israel. Indeed, the list of accomplishments and gestures of friendship toward Jerusalem is long – not just withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal or recognizing Jerusalem and the Golan but shuttering the PLO’s offices in Washington after the Palestinian Authority refused to stop paying salaries to terrorists and their families, and cutting American payments to the United Nations, UNRWA and more. He mentioned Netanyahu in the same breath as Trump, as it pertains to the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

And then he changed gears to assail the leftist radicalization of the Democratic Party, to the point of unabashed anti-Semitism in the House of Representatives. Most interesting was his call for those who attack the relationship between Israel and the U.S. to be barred from sitting on the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives. It was a response to the anti-Semitic sentiments voiced by Rep. Ilhan Omar. She and her ilk sought to isolate those who support Israel and to mark them as disloyal and as seeking to undermine U.S. interests. Pence instead turned the spotlight back around, to isolate them as suspects in their own right. It’s clear the Democratic presidential candidates are afraid of the progressives and thus avoided appearing at AIPAC (Pence said they “boycotted” the conference), and addressed them directly: “Anyone who aspires to the highest office in the land should not be afraid to stand with the strongest supporters of Israel in America.”

4.

Similar to all of Pence’s important speeches to Jewish audiences, here too he mixed in some Hebrew. He said the U.S. and Israel were more than friends, partners or allies – but a family (using the Hebrew word “mishpucha” for family). Wonderful. And the next time disagreements arise between Israel and the administration, we must remember that family members do disagree on occasion, regardless of their obvious loyalty to it. To better understand Pence, one needs to remember that he is a religious person and his support for Israel stems from his Christian faith. It is also the source for the idea of family: two faiths stemming from the same root. He ended his speech with a blessing for his fellow Americans: “May the Lord bless you and keep you. May His countenance shine upon you and be gracious unto you. And may all your ways be paths of peace.”

And then Nikki Haley approached the podium and the stadium shook from the ovation. She is still the star of the conference. She, too, touched all the basic bases. But what does it matter? The entire crowd was on its feet the majority of the time, cheering her on. She deserves it. Netanyahu won’t address the conference this year. It’s a shame. Someone already tweeted that the AIPAC conference without Netanyahu is like an omelet without eggs.

Yoav Limor

Over the past year, Israel has tried to avoid reaching a major confrontation with Hamas.

The weekly riots that begun last March have occasionally resulted in violent clashes, but Israel has repeatedly chosen to de-escalate, knowing full well that a full-fledged war will exact a heavy military and economic price and won’t address the underlying problems in the Gaza Strip.

Likewise, Hamas wanted to avoid a real confrontation that would have only increased the despair in Gaza.

But in recent days Hamas has apparently changed its posture. There can be several reasons for this: the ongoing protests on the streets of Gaza; Egypt’s unwillingness to mediate an intra-Palestinian reconciliation; the insufficient cash from Qatar; Israel’s new measures against Hamas prisoners, and perhaps the realization that the election season is an opportune moment to extract concessions from Israel without going into war.

Whatever the reason,  Hamas has chosen to play with fire. Hamas claimed that it “accidentally” fired rockets on central Israel some ten days ago, but using this same excuse for Monday’s rocket on Mishmeret is would have a been over the top.

This time around, Israel knew it had no choice but to retaliate, particularly because of the Israeli casualties. This time around, it was imperative to act because Israel’s deterrence had significantly eroded.

As of Monday, Israel was still trying to make sure things would not spiral out of control. Israel’s airstrikes were intense but limited; Israel wanted to exact a price from Hamas, but it didn’t want all hell to break loose (not yet at least).

If Hamas acts with a similar degree of restraint, perhaps this round of escalation – the umpteenth such round over the past year – will not become war.

Israel sent two brigades to the border on Monday to prepare for a potential major confrontation. The move was also a message to Hamas that it should think twice before it enters a futile misadventure.

Likewise, Hamas’ rocket attack on Monday was a message to Israel. It was a warning that the terrorist group could have just as easily hit the Ben Gurion International Airport and other strategic assets. Another terrorist group, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, can also do the same.

Israel is operating under the assumption that Hamas would like to avoid an all-out war with Israel, but Hamas’ senior commanders went into hiding on Monday.

Israel has also taken various steps to prepare for any eventuality. This saw the deployment of Iron Dome batteries and the reinforcement of troops near border communities, in case Hamas would to launch a cross-border attack or kidnap Israelis through its tunnels.

As is the case with every round of hostilities, the first 24 hours are the most critical because this period defines the rules of the game. It is also the period where both sides either demonstrate their determination to go to war or seek a face-saving calm.

Israel will likely try to make sure this latest escalation ends with actual gains. It cannot let Hamas’ repeated harassment of border communities with airborne incendiary devices go unpunished.

Israel must also change the rules of the game by creating a secure perimeter near the border fence that would be off-limits to rioters. And above all, Israel must extract a clear cut statement from Hamas in which it would pledge not to engage in rocket fire and prevent others from doing so.

Such a statement would only be issued if Hamas feels it has something to lose. Israel must not yield on this because otherwise, the hostilities will erupt again.