WarSclerotic

The sounds of war have again echoed over the Golan Heights this past week. However, the drums of war have changed their course. Until last summer, we could clearly hear and witness the Syrian war with Syrian and Russian planes bombing rebel positions, occasionally “stray mortar” hitting the Israeli Golan.

However, this week those were Israeli tanks allegedly shooting to Quneitra, just across the Alpha Line and last month it was the roar of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, flying above the heads of Israeli skiers who surprisingly saw the rendezvous of Israeli Iron dome interceptors.

In the summer of 2018, the Assad regime reestablished its control over the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, restoring Syrian sovereignty and redeploying Syrian Army elements to their pre-war positions.

However, a deeper look at the developments across the Syrian-Israeli frontier reveals that the new reality is different from pre-civil war Syria. Today, Syrian military bases host a number of new actors, which include pro-Iranian militias, Russian military police, and reconfigured Syrian units. The local leadership and elements identified with the opposition – who informally governed these areas before the Assad regime reestablished control – have fled or been killed. In their place, stands a new security architecture that is based and supported, in part, by foreign actors.

Eight years of war have dramatically changed the face of the Syrian state. The Syria of the past no longer exists. Demographic and social changes have rearranged the country, which numbered 23 million people before the war.

Today, there are more than 5.6 million Syrian refugees living outside the country, the vast majority of whom are Sunni.

The numbers of those killed is reported to be at least 511,000. The Syrian army, which numbered some 200,000 soldiers before the war, quickly eroded and Assad remained in power, supported by mobilized militias that filled the ranks of his army.

At its peak, some 80,000 militias filled the Syrian military ranks. Iran played an important role by providing support, intelligence and training.

The regime’s victory – with Iran and Hezbollah’s support – has created several changes in southwest Syria. The Syrian military is no longer the sole authority on the ground. The Russian Military Police deployed on the Bravo Line aim to enforce a series of “reconciliations” to restore stability on the Golan by removing non-Syrian forces, as agreed upon in the Astana Process.

The Syrian Arab Army is no longer the same. In the south, the 61st Regional Brigade was completely wiped out. The 90th Regional Brigade returned, but has been reinforced with various militias, such as the NDF. The 112th brigade was deployed in the southern Golan Heights, ten kilometers from the Israeli border to fill the vacuum left by the destroyed 61st Brigade. It is probable that a local Hezbollah force may have been stationed under its auspices.

Mustafa Mughniyeh, the eldest son of Imad Mughniyeh reportedly attempted to revive an Iranian cell in the Druze village of Hader.

As outgoing chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Eisenkot detailed in an interview with The New York Times, Hezbollah developed a three-pronged strategy to confront Israel: building factories in Lebanon to manufacture precision-guided missiles, digging attack tunnels under the Israeli border, and setting up a second front from Syria on the Golan Heights. Furthermore, a Hezbollah intelligence position was recently struck by the IDF, less than two kilometers from Israel’s border.

Defying the understandings reached between Russia, Israel and Jordan, Iran continues to increase its presence in southern Syria.

Several opposition sources detailed the military activities of pro-Iranian militias on the ground, among others the Iraqi al-Imam al-Hussein, Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades, and Hezbollah’s elite “Radwan” unit. To conceal their activities, these militias use Syrian military bases, and some are embedded in regime forces, reportedly wearing Syrian army uniforms, and carrying Syrian IDs and flags.

Today, even those who are skeptical understand that Iran has reached beyond the Golan border. The missile fired into the Hermon by Iranian forces was launched from an area near Damascus that Israel was assured would not contain an Iranian presence.

Iran uses the promotion of Shi’ism as a tool to buy loyalty among Syrians from poor areas. These activities intensified in post-2011. Public expressions of Shi’ite practices, which were limited during the time of Assad, are now common, including in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus.

THE ASSAD REGIME’S promises to restore pre-war stability seem to be a delusion. A weakened and exhausted population, a lack of leadership and basic services, and the loss of Israel’s rebel partners who had been working to stabilize the area over the past few years have resulted in a broken society.

IDF Operation Good Neighbor was shut down, leaving a significant vacuum of supplies and support in the southern Syria. There is still high tension between the opposition groups that reconciled with the regime and the Syrian Security Forces in Daraa and Quneitra. Assassinations and explosions are still common in the government-controlled areas. The lack or loss of stabilizing forces leave the stage open to new destabilizing forces such as Iran.

Demonstrations are still going on in southwest Syria. Frustrated at the regime and Russia for not observing the terms of the deal, protesters continue to gather at the Al-Omari Mosque, calling for the regime to uphold its commitments.

Furthermore, locals still protest the regime in Jasim, Da’el, al-Karak. Frustration over punishments in the area continues to grow: many have protested the forced military conscription and condemn the Syrian intel services raids of their homes. They call for the regime to abide by the terms of the reconciliation agreement signed last summer, in which opposition forces surrendered control of the area in return for the safety and security of the citizens who live there.

Following an intelligence operation, a new Iranian military position was uncovered in northern Israel recently, buried under piles of sand and debris. That is not a new cross-border Hezbollah tunnel or an Iranian intel position.

It is a 2500 years old outpost, established by the forces of Persian King Cambyses II at Tell Keisan, during his expedition to conquer the Levant, all the way to Ethiopia. The Ethiopian king understood the imperial and deceitful intentions and decided to reject the diplomatic overtures, and was prepared to defend his kingdom. Some 2500 years later, during increasing Iranian entrenchment in the Levant, Israel may be compelled to do the same.

Nir Boms is a Researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center (MDC) for Middle Eastern and African Studies.
Stéphane Cohen, is a former IDF Liaison Unit Commander to UN Forces in Syria and Lebanon. He is a member of the MDC’s Syria Forum.

There is a new era in the Middle East, Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when the two met in Warsaw prior to the US-led ministerial meeting on Iran.

“This is an important and new vision for the future. People of the Middle East have suffered a lot because they are stuck to the past. This is a new era for the future and for prosperity for every nation,” the Omani foreign minister said during their meeting on Wednesday.

“The courageous decision of Sultan Qaboos [bin Said] to invite me to Oman is changing the world,” Netanyahu said as he referenced his October visit to Muscat.

“It’s pointing the way for many others to do what you said, not to be stuck in the past, but to seize the future.

“Many are following this lead, and may I say, including in this conference. I thank you for this positive policy that can lead to peace and prosperity for all,” Netanyahu added. “I want to thank you on behalf of the people of Israel, and I allow myself to say on behalf of many people in the Middle East.”

The prime minister is in Warsaw to attend the Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East, which opens on Wednesday night and extends into Thursday.

“It is cold in Warsaw right now, but Israel’s foreign relations are warming up, warming up for the better,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu told Israeli reporters that he and the Omani foreign minister had spoken of steps the two countries, as well as others in the region, could take to advance mutual interests.

Representatives of Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, as well as the UK, South Korea, Brazil, Italy and Kenya, have chosen to attend, while several EU nations opted out due to concern over the conference’s focus on undermining the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran to which they remain a party.

Top Trump administration officials arrived in Warsaw on Wednesday with talking points on Iran and harsh words for the Palestinians, teasing only “a discussion” on the Middle East peace process ahead of an expected peace push later this year.

Senior advisers to the president Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt planned a soft launch of their long-awaited peace plan at a meeting hosted by Norway’s foreign minister, Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide, where they will discuss economic components of their proposal, officials said. But while both men plan on taking questions from gathered ministers, the administration does not expect them to make significant news.

Greenblatt even downplayed the importance of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Twitter en route to the conference, mocking the notion that it is at the core of the region’s problems and characterizing the Palestinians as “isolated” from a growing Mideast alliance preoccupied by Iran.

“Iran is the primary threat to the future of regional peace and security,” wrote Greenblatt, increasingly vocal on Twitter in recent days. “That’s what Palestinians don’t grasp; as a consequence of being detached from new realities, we see Palestinians increasingly left behind [and] more isolated than ever. Very unfortunate for the Palestinians.”

Palestinian Authority officials are boycotting the conference, still dismissive of the administration since its moves last year to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the US Embassy there.

While Kushner and Greenblatt will engage on the peace effort, Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will lead conversations on Iran, according to administration officials.

US Vice President Mike Pence who addressed the gathering said, “Tonight I believe we are beginning a new era with Prime Minister Netanyahu from the State of Israel, with leaders from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE  all breaking bread together and later in this conference sharing honest perspectives on the challenge facing the region.”

“Poland and the US welcome this outward symbol of this gathering a symbol of cooperation and a hopeful sign of a brighter future that awaits nations across the Middle East,” Pence said.

He added, “We are stronger together than we could ever be apart.”

“From here I am going to a meeting with 60 foreign ministers and envoys of countries from around the world against Iran,” Netanyahu said.

On the northern front, Israel is working to oust Iran from Syria, Netanyahu said.

“What we are doing is pushing and driving Iran from Syria. We are committed to doing this,” he said. “It is cold in Warsaw right now but Israel’s foreign relations are warming up, warming up for the better.”

He spoke after his meeting with Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah.

The Israeli Prime Minister is in Warsaw to attend the Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East, which opens on Wednesday night and extends into Thursday.

Both US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, are expected to address the ministerial meeting that includes representatives from the Arab world and the 28 nations that make up the European Union.

US envoy Jason Greenblatt, who is in Warsaw tweeted in advance of the conference that, “Iran is the primary threat to the future of regional peace/security.

“Iran is the primary threat to the future of regional peace/security,” he wrote.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Europe to distance itself from the US.

“Today, the Iranian people see some European countries as cunning and untrustworthy along with the criminal America. The government of the Islamic Republic must carefully preserve its boundaries with them,” he wrote.

“Iran must not retreat a single step from national and revolutionary values.”

US President Donald Trump’s attorney and former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani, called for Iranian regime change on Wednesday ahead of a US-backed Middle East summit in Warsaw.

“Everyone knows that Iran is the number one sponsor of terrorism in the world. There isn’t a single government there that disagrees with that,” he said.

“The reality is, Iran should be isolated until Iran changes. If they can do what our government, American government, other governments, believe and make policy change within, I would be satisfied with that, although skeptical. If it results in regime change, I think that would be a cleaner solution,” Giuliani said.

He spoke ahead of a rally to show support for the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a bloc of opposition groups in exile that seeks to end Shi’ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.

Protesters banged drums, chanted, waved flags and placards outside the summit venue at the National Stadium. They were protesting the current regime and its human rights’ violations.

An Iranian protester Mahmoud Masoudi of Germany said,”We are coming here to support Maryam Rajavi (head of National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) as our leader and the only alternative to the dictatorship in Iran. This is the basic reason that all of us are here today. And we think it is the time to support NCRI, National Council of Resistance, which includes the most democratic groups in Iran against Khamenei regime, against dictatorship in Iran, the religious dictatorship.”

The NCRI members joined the 1979 Islamic revolution but later broke from the ruling clerics. Based in Iraq in the early 1980s, their fighters clashed with U.S. forces during the 2003 Iraq war, but have since renounced violence.

NCRI, also known by its Farsi name Mujahideen-e-Khalq, was once listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union but that is no longer the case.

Reuters contributed to this report.