Archive for June 2018

Amid PA rejectionism, Arab nations threaten to ‘go ‎over Abbas’ head’

June 25, 2018

Source: Amid PA rejectionism, Arab nations threaten to ‘go ‎over Abbas’ head’ – Israel Hayom

Syria launches comprehensive assault on Daraa. Quneitra under threat next 

June 25, 2018

Source: Syria launches comprehensive assault on Daraa. Quneitra under threat next – DEBKAfile

The Syrian army on Monday, June 25, launched an all-out assault on Daraa – a symbolic operation since it was there that the seven-year anti-Assad war first erupted. 

The Syrian army’s 4th Division’s guns and its Tigers Forces’ tanks pounded the town with heavy artillery and Golan 1000 missiles, each of which carries a 500kg explosive warhead. The mobile Golan 1000 system mounted on Russian T-72 tanks proved its lethal properties in the recent battles for eastern Damascus. There is no way the Syrian rebel groups defending Daraa can withstand the fury of this assault, especially when it is boosted by carpet bombing inflicted by Syrian and Russian air forces.

According to some sources close to the scene, the rebels tried early Monday to mount a counter-attack on the Syrian army and were repelled with heavy casualties. Rebel chiefs in the Daraa region are still putting a brave face on their predicament and pledging to fight to the end and never surrender They refuse to be discouraged by the US embassy’s message from its Amman embassy on Sunday warning the South Syrian rebels not to expect US intervention on their behalf.

The immediate objective of the Syrian assault appears to be a group of tall buildings in the Al Balad district of Daraa, from which to gain elevation for commanding the rest of the city and so cutting short the battle for its conquest.

Like the United States, Israel too appears to have decided to stand aside and let the Syrian army finish its offensive for the capture of Daraa up to the Jordanian border. However, DEBKAfile’s military analysts maintain that this is a serious strategic error. Israel’s strategists must be fully aware that, after Daraa, the Syrian army will soon go for Quneitra and knock over rebel-held positions opposite Israel’s Golan border within view of IDF defense lines.

Israel’s policy-makers are also fully apprised of the trick of disguising the Hizballah and pro-Iranian Shiite militias spearheading the Syrian offensive in Syrian army uniforms. Therefore, notwithstanding American and Russian promises to prevent this happening, Israel will soon find itself facing Hizballah and pro-Iranian forces sitting on its northern border.

Israel receives three more F-35 Adir jets

June 25, 2018

Neighboring Turkey received first advanced jet on Thursday despite opposition by US lawmakers.

By Anna Ahronheim
June 25, 2018 15:34

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-receives-three-more-F-35-Adir-jets-560811

F-35 Adir Jets. (photo credit: COURTESY IAF)

Israel received three more F-35 Adir stealth fighter jets on Sunday just days after the world’s most advanced jet was rolled out in neighboring Turkey.

With the arrival of the three jets, which landed at Nevatim Airbase southeast of Beersheba, the country currently boasts 12 Adir aircrafts. The IAF is expected to receive a total of 50 planes to make two full squadrons by 2024.

In December, Israel become the first air force outside the United States to declare Initial Operational Capability of the jet and last month IAF chief Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin announced that Israel has struck targets in the Middle East with the F-35 Adir jet twice, making the Jewish state the first country to use the stealth fighter in a combat role in the region.

Norkin made the comments while showing a picture of one Israeli F-35 Adir flying over the Lebanese capital of Beirut during the day. He did not mention when the picture was taken.

Built by Lockheed Martin, the jets have an extremely low radar signature allowing the jet to operate undetected deep inside enemy territory as well as evade advanced missile defense systems like the advanced Russian-made S-300 and S-400 missile defense system.

Israel is one of 12 countries participating in the F-35 program, with nine partner nations who participated in the jet’s development such as Turkey which received its first jet on Thursday despite opposition by US lawmakers.

US lawmakers are increasingly worried about Ankara’s human rights records and growing ties to Russia, which is in talks to sell it’s advanced S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system.

The deterioration of ties between Ankara and Washington has led US lawmakers to voice concern that if Russia provides the S-400 to Turkey while it flies the F-35, the capabilities and vulnerabilities of the jet could potentially be conveyed to Russia, compromising it.

The already fragile relations between Israel and Turkey have been increasingly strained in recent months as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, a vocal critic of Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians, has intensified his rhetoric.

Israel has already quietly tested ways to defeat the advanced Russian air defense system, participating in several joint drills between the Greek and Israeli air forces over the island of Crete where one system is stationed.  The drills have allowed Israeli warplanes to gather data on how the advanced system may be blinded or fooled.

Israel’s F-35 Adirs were designed to Israel’s own specifications and are be embedded with Israeli-made electronic warfare pods as well as Israeli weaponry, all installed once the planes have landed in Israel.

The Israeli F-35s have components built by several local defense companies including Israel Aerospace Industries who produced the outer wings, Elbit System-Cyclone that built the center fuselage composite components and Elbit Systems Ltd, which manufactured the helmets worn by the pilots.

Israel is also the only partner nation to have secured the right from the US to perform depot-level maintenance, including overhauling engines and airframe components, within its borders.

In the first deal, Israel purchased 19 F-35s at a cost of $125 million, and a second deal of 14 jets saw Jerusalem pay $112 million per plane. The cost of the plane is expected to drop to around $80 million by 2020. The jets are purchased as part of the military aid agreement between the United States and Israel.

 

Assad Forces Took Over UN Position on Syrian Border

June 25, 2018

Assad Forces Took Over UN Position on Israel-Syrian Border

UNDOF position on the Syria-Israel border on the Golan Heights

Forces affiliated with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime recently took over an abandoned post of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the buffer zone along the Israel-Syria border, Channel 1 news reported Sunday night. According to the report, the UNDOF forces in the area have identified serious construction work at the site—where no military presence is allowed.

Israel wants UNDOF forces to keep reporting on the activities of the various militias in Syria as well, including pro-Iranian forces fighting for the Assad army.

The IDF said in response to the report on the works along the border that the army is “aware of what is going on and sees the infrastructure work in that post as a flagrant violation of the separation of forces agreements.”

“The IDF considers UNDOF responsible for monitoring and acting against military forces in the buffer zone, and is determined to prevent military consolidation in this area,” the statement said.

Meanwhile, the defense establishment estimated that the renewed fighting between the Syrian regime and the rebels near the Golan Heights border could lead to additional stray fire hitting Israeli territory, this only hours after a Patriot missile had been launched at an unmanned aircraft approaching from Syria.

The aircraft, which apparently belonged to the Assad regime, did not intend to arrive in Israel, apparently but Israel believes that as the days go by, fighting in the area will intensify and these incidents will increase.

Despite all of the above, the Israeli communities on the Golan Heights maintained their routine on Sunday, having received no special alerts from the army.

Off topic: 15 Quotes from Charles Krauthammer

June 25, 2018

This is a follow up post to Joseph’s post here on Charles Krauthammer:

https://warsclerotic.com/2018/06/23/off-topic-a-tribute-to-charles-krauthammer/

Find below 15 quotes from Charles, which are well worth a read. I have highlighted the Israel/Jewish specific ones (being 1, 2, 5, 10, 14 and 15). Quote 11 about mourning the death of a dog is also something I would attest to.

He was a true warrior in the fight to defend Israel, and stood firm and strong and true.

Raise your glasses to him!

But before that, have a read of the letter that Bibi Netanyahu sent to him just before his death, when his illness was announced.

“We have been like brothers”

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1010148401042919425

 

15 Quotes from Charles Krauthammer

15 Quotes from Charles Krauthammer

http://www.aish.com/ci/s/15-Quotes-from-Charles-Krauthammer.html?s=mm

  1. Israel is the very embodiment of Jewish continuity: It is the only nation on earth that inhabits the same land, bears the same name, speaks the same language, and worships the same God that it did 3,000 years ago. You dig the soil and you find pottery from Davidic times, coins from Bar Kokhba, and 2,000-year-old scrolls written in a script remarkably like the one that today advertises ice cream at the corner candy store.
  2. I knew I’d always be a Jew, and I’d always be an outsider.

  3. Where religion is trivialized, one is unlikely to find persecution.
  4. Science has everything to say about what is possible. Science has nothing to say about what is permissible.
  5. …the Jews have done something never done before by anybody else. Even the Jews didn’t imagine it could be done, they returned. No one’s ever returned. We can’t even read the Etruscan language. Everybody disappears. The ten tribes have disappeared… This is a story that is so improbable, the revival of Hebrew. That’s never happened. No language has ever been revived to become the language of everyday life, ever. This is the uniqueness of our history.

  6. Obsession with self is the motif of our time.
  7. Loyalty to the President is great, but loyalty to truth, integrity, and country is even better.
  8. Life and consciousness are the two great mysteries. Actually, their substrates are the inanimate. And how do you get from neurons shooting around in the brain to the thought that pops up in your head and mine? There’s something deeply mysterious about that. And if you’re not struck by the mystery, I think you haven’t thought about it.
  9. Great leaders are willing to retire unloved and unpopular as the price for great exertion.
  10. My theology can be summed up as, the only theology I know is not true, the only one I’m sure is untrue is atheism. Everything else I’m unsure about…I have this sense that there is transcendence in the universe, but we are in no position ever to understand it…I have an enormous attachment to the Jewish tradition and to the depth and the subtlety of its understanding of life, morality, and of metaphysics. I’ve always been interested in it, and that to me, I think, is important for Jews to try to continue that tradition, to make sure it lives, and to make sure that culture is nourished.

  11. Some will protest that in a world with so much human suffering, it is something between eccentric and obscene to mourn a dog. I think not. After all, it is perfectly normal—indeed, deeply human—to be moved when nature presents us with a vision of great beauty. Should we not be moved when it produces a vision—a creature—of the purest sweetness?
  12. There is no comparing the brutality and cynicism of today’s pop culture with that of forty years ago: from High Noon to Robocop is a long descent.
  13. The joy of losing consists in this: Where there are no expectations, there is no disappointment.
  14. Some geopolitical conflicts are morally complicated. The Israel-Gaza war is not. It possesses a moral clarity not only rare but excruciating. […] For Hamas, the only thing more prized than dead Jews are dead Palestinians.

  15. You’ve got to learn the texts, you have to know Talmud, you have to be able to read Rashi, you have to know what’s there. My father said, “I can’t make you religious. I can’t make sure that you’ll be religious, but I am going to make sure that you’re not ignorant.”

Bishop Graham Tomlin and the Demonization of Israel

June 24, 2018

IDF fires Patriot missile toward UAV approaching Israel’s Golan Heights

June 24, 2018

No hit detected after a drone retreated from the Israeli-Syrian border.

By Anna Ahronheim
June 24, 2018 14:23
https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/IDF-fires-Patriot-missile-toward-UAV-approaching-Israels-Golan-Heights-560726
A Patriot anti-missile system deployed in a joint U.S. and Israeli military outpost in Jaffa, south of Tel Aviv is silhouetted against the setting sun. (photo credit: NIR ELIAS / REUTERS)

The IDF confirmed firing a Patriot missile towards an unmanned aerial vehicle approaching Israel’s Golan Heights from Syria on Sunday.

“Air defense systems as well as detection systems identified the threat in advance and before it crossed into the country,” read a statement released by the IDF’s Spokesperson’s Unit adding that the military “will not allow for a violation of Israel’s aerial sovereignty and will act against any attempt to harm its citizens.”

According to the IDF, the UAV was not hit and retreated from the border area following the missile launch.

The drone was in engaged in ongoing operations by the Syrian army, a commander in the regional alliance supporting President Bashar Assad said.

The interception comes amid a large-scale offensive in the southwestern Syrian province of Dara’a aimed at recapturing the strategic areas bordering Jordan and the Golan Heights from rebels.

Over the weekend the Syrian army, backed by Russian airpower and Shiite militias, pounded the rebel-held areas causing thousands of civilians to flee to other opposition held areas along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

The border with Syria has been tense since the war erupted in 2011, and Israel has stepped out  strikes against Iranian military targets in the war-torn country as well as against Hezbollah weapons convoys in Syrian territory.

Israeli officials have repeatedly voiced their concern about the entrenchment of Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah entrenching themselves in Syria and in February an armed Iranian drone sent to to carry out a sabotage attack was downed by an Apache attack helicopter after it infiltrated into northern Israel after taking off from the T-4 airbase deep in the Syrian province of Homs

Following the infiltration Israeli jets took off to strike the launch site of the drone as well as the drone control vehicle that guided the drone into Israeli territory and were met by massive Syrian anti-aircraft fire. Over 20 missiles were launched toward the Israelis jets from SA-5 and SA-17 batteries. Shrapnel from the Syrian anti-aircraft fire hit one Israeli F-16i causing it to crash in the lower Galilee.  Both pilots evacuated from the jet.

Israel has used Patriot missile batteries stationed in the north of the country to intercept drones infiltrating into Israeli airspace from Syria.

In September an Iranian-built unmanned aerial vehicle that breached the “Bravo line” that marks the Syrian demilitarized zone, firing one Patriot anti-ballistic missile stationed near the northern city of Safed.

The previous year a Patriot missile intercepted a UAV that was believed to have been gathering intelligence for the Syrian regime. The system was also used in July 2016, when two Patriot missiles were fired at a suspicious drone that crossed into Israeli airspace from Syria. Both missed their targets and the unmanned aircraft returned to Syria.

Israel’s air defenses also include the Iron Dome, designed to shoot down short-range rockets and the Arrow system which intercepts ballistic missiles outside of the Earth’s atmosphere and the David’s Sling missile defense system is designed to intercept tactical ballistic missiles, medium- to long-range rockets, as well as cruise missiles fired at ranges between 40 to 300km.

42 major BDS groups have ties to “Palestinian” jihad terrorist organizations

June 24, 2018

By – on

42 major BDS groups have ties to “Palestinian” jihad terrorist organizations

This is no surprise. Both the BDS movement and “Palestinian” jihad groups share the same Jew-hatred. BDS is the 21st-century version of Kristallnacht. Remember that the Nazis began their actions against the Jews by holding boycotts of Jewish businesses in Germany. BDS leads directly into the genocidal rhetoric of the “Palestinians.”

“Major BDS groups have ties to Palestinian terrorist organizations, ministry says,” by Ariel Kahana, JNS, June 20, 2018 (thanks to Mark):

The Strategic Affairs Ministry on Tuesday named 42 major anti-‎Israel organizations as having clear ties to Palestinian terrorist ‎groups.‎

According to the ministry’s data, these groups – part of a network ‎of 300 boycott, divestment and sanctions organizations operating ‎worldwide – have traceable ties to Hamas and the Popular Front ‎for the Liberation of Palestine, and receive their orders directly from the ‎Palestinian Authority. ‎

This network is directed by the BDS National Committee, which is headed ‎by the co-founder of the global BDS movement Omar Barghouti, who holds ‎permanent Israeli residency status and lives in the northern city of ‎Acre.‎

The Strategic Affairs Ministry, tasked by the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet ‎with heading ‎Israel’s efforts to counter the BDS movement and its efforts to ‎delegitimize Israel, has spent the past two years mapping what it ‎calls the “network of hatred.” ‎

The ministry’s data shows that not only do Hamas and the PLFP ‎support BDS activists in theory, their operatives take an active part ‎in BDS initiatives. ‎

The report names, for example, the Al-Haq human rights ‎organization, Defense for Children International – Palestine, and the Al-‎Dameer Association for Human Rights as being headed by former ‎PFLP operatives. ‎

Al-Haq is chaired by Shawan Jabarin, of Ramallah, who served 13 ‎years in an Israeli prison for being a member of the PLFP’s military ‎wing. ‎Jabarin is a leading figure in the BDS movement’s lawfare campaign ‎against Israel, especially its attempts to pursue legal action against ‎Israeli officials in the International Criminal Court in The Hague. ‎

Other examples include groups such as the Palestinian Return ‎Center, which the ministry says promotes Hamas interests in ‎Europe; and members of the U.K.-based Palestine Solidarity ‎Campaign and Friends of Al-Aqsa group, which the ministry says have neem with Hamas ‎leader Ismail Haniyeh, participated in the 2010 Navi Marmara ‎flotilla that sought to breach the maritime blockade on the Gaza ‎Strip, and have recently held a demonstration outside the British ‎Prime Minister’s Office in support of Hamas so-called “March of ‎Return” or Gaza border riot campaign.‎

Speaking at the biennial GC4I conference in Jerusalem Wednesday, ‎attended by the directors of over 150 pro-Israeli groups, as well as ‎Jewish community heads and activists from around the world ‎dedicated to fighting the BDS movement, Strategic Affairs Minister ‎Gilad Erdan said much of the anti-Israel group’s momentum is ‎fuel by the Palestinian Authority.‎

Ramallah is a longtime proponent of anti-Israel boycotts and the ‎National Palestinian Council has officially endorsed the BDS ‎movement during its annual meeting in May.‎

‎”We have seen the attempts led by senior Palestinian Authority ‎officials to suspend Israel from FIFA and to promote various ‎‎’blacklists‘ at the U.N. Human Rights Council. These campaigns ‎have all been widely promoted by the network of hatred exposed ‎by the Strategic Affairs Ministry,” he said….

Five things you need to know about Turkey’s election

June 24, 2018

Source: Five things you need to know about Turkey’s election – Middle East – Jerusalem Post

Fifty-six million registered voters in Turkey will head to the polls on Sunday in an election with far-reaching ramifications.

BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN
 JUNE 24, 2018 03:30
Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend his election rally in Istanbul

Fifty-six million registered voters in Turkey will head to the polls on Sunday in an election with far-reaching ramifications. The elections will transform Turkey into a presidential system, concentrating power in the hands of whoever wins. It will also have consequences for the Middle East and for Ankara’s relations with Russia, Iran and the West.

The election is being called the “great transformation” to “determine the future” that will create a “new era,” according to Turkish media headlines. Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been the leading figure in Turkey since his AKP came in first in 2002. In many ways, the election Sunday is a referendum on a decade and a half of his rule and his party’s dominance.

Erdogan was prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and has been president since 2014. He has systematically sought to concentrate power in his hands with the decision to turn Turkey into a presidential system and abolish the office of the prime minister. He accomplished that task through a 2017 referendum in which 51% voted to give more powers to the president, hitherto a weaker position. The referendum provides the president more power over the judiciary and the appointment of judges and allows the president to be a member of a political party, whereas previously the presidency was ostensibly apolitical.

Erdogan is also accused of eroding other aspects of Turkey’s democracy. Since a 2016 coup attempt, the country has been in a state of emergency. “Authorities have used emergency powers to all but silence independent media in Turkey,” Human Rights Watch claimed.

After the coup attempt, Turkey arrested thousands and fired tens of thousands of workers, accusing them of being members of the Fethullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), a shadowy organization run by a cleric in the US that Ankara alleges masterminded the coup. Teachers, professors, soldiers and police have been accused of various roles in the coup.

In addition, Turkey’s ruling party has passed a number of laws and made widespread changes to society over the last decade, seeking to bring more religious overtones into society. These include major changes to the educational curriculum, and an increase in the use of Islamic law. New laws in 2013 sought to restrict sales of alcohol, the harshest in 89 years of the country’s history as a secular republic.

The presidential election would not change all these laws immediately, but an upset would mark a historic break after a decade and a half in which Turkey has trended toward a more authoritarian and religious country.

The opposition

Eight political parties are running and there are six presidential candidates. The parties participating include the AKP, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), the Good Party (IYI) and the Nationalist Movement (MHP). The CHP has put forward Muharrem Ince, while the HPD is running Selhattin Demirtas, a Kurdish politician who is campaigning from prison. Meral Aksener of the newly formed IYI – a former interior minister in the 1990s – is the most prominent woman in the elections.

The opposition parties, particularly the CHP, see this election as the last chance to chart a new course for Turkey. In April, 15 members of the CHP in parliament switched to become part of Aksener’s new party so Aksener could run in the elections. The election law required that candidates had 20 members of parliament in order to field a presidential candidate. “Our friends will not go down in history as MPs who left their party, they will go down as heroes who saved the democracy following their responsibility to their party,” Bulent Tezcan, a CHP spokesman, said in April.

One problem for the opposition is that it has been divided in its response to the AKP over the years. The AKP and MHP are running together in this election, while four opposition parties also formed an alliance. This alliance includes the CHP, IYI and two smaller parties: the Democratic Party and the Felicity Party. Another issue facing for the opposition is that while the CHP is a center-left party representing the old secular tradition in Turkey, while the Felicity Party is a conservative Islamic party.

Aksener also comes from a right-leaning nationalist tradition. So the opposition combines most of the spectrum of Turkish politics. The one thing it does not include is the mostly Kurdish leftist HDP, whose candidate Demirtas is currently in prison. Despite the HDP’s Kurdish roots, many Kurds have historically also voted for Erdogan’s AKP; the Kurdish vote in this election may once again help Erdogan secure just enough to win the election. Kurdish votes, for instance, were vital to him winning the 2017 referendum.

Over the last decade, the AKP has usually performed well in the conservative center of the country, while the more secular western districts vote for the CHP, and the HDP takes many Kurdish votes in the east. If this election plays out like ones in the past, the opposition might win more parliamentary seats but Erdogan will win the presidency.

Foreign policy and minorities 

Turkey has become deeply involved in the conflict in Syria in the last few years. In August 2016, along with Syrian rebel allies, it took over a corridor from the Euphrates River to the border town of Kilis. It sent more soldiers into Syria near Idlib in 2017, and in January 2018 moved into the Kurdish area of Afrin, establishing a dozen observation points in Syria with regular patrols. In June, it also began patrols in Manbij, an area controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkey has accused the US of backing “terrorists” in Syria by working with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Since 2015, Turkey has been fighting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Ankara accuses the PKK and YPG of being the same entity. Under Erdogan, Turkey has also increased operations in Iraq, where it maintains several military outposts. The AKP has threatened to send the Turkish Army to Iraq’s Sinjar and Qandil regions to root out the PKK presence there.

In the lead-up to the poll, Turkey’s foreign minister called for a joint effort with Iran against the PKK. In addition, Turkish media has reported new arrests of ISIS terrorists, PKK members and FETO conspirators on the eve of the election. The reports make it seem as if Turkey is under siege by various terrorist groups and feeds a feeling of being under siege from foreign threats, in general.

During the campaign, both the CHP and AKP have campaigned for votes of the Alevi minority. The AKP prime minister promised to legalize their places of worship after the elections. Erdogan has also claimed that his government has helped Kurds, improving standards of living and ending “denial policies and policies of rejection,” a reference to the pre-1991 policies in which Kurds were portrayed as “mountain Turks” and their existence denied.

Syrian refugees 

There are 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and their presence has become controversial. After the refugee crisis in 2015, the European Union began paying Turkey to host the refugees. Both the opposition and the AKP have talked about returning them to Syria. Turkey is now looking to build a university in Al-Bab in Syria, an area it controls, and Erdogan says that 200,000 refugees have returned to “liberated areas” in Syria. In a speech at Gaziantep, he promised to “make all Syrian lands safe” after the election.

Muhammad Ruzgar, a Syrian commentator, says that for many Syrians in Turkey, Erdogan has been a guarantor of their ability to stay in the country. “If Erdogan does not win, the Syrian situation will get worse.” He says thousands of Syrians have received Turkish citizenship and that if the opposition wins, Syrian refugees will face pressure and harassment and the opposition will cut support to the Syrian rebels in Syria.

Does Turkey’s election matter to Israel? 

Israel-Turkish relations have been on a roller-coaster ride since Erdogan and his AKP came to power in 2002. At Davos in 2009, Erdogan publicly excoriated then-president Shimon Peres over Israel’s Gaza conflict. Then there was the MV Mavi Marmara, and most recently Ankara’s outrage over the US Embassy move to Jerusalem.

Israel has not been a major issue in the current political campaign. The opposition Republican People’s Party was harshly critical of Israel, condemning the “massacre” in Gaza on May 14 and advocating tearing up an agreement signed by Israel and Turkey. It is unclear if the Turkish election will have ramifications for the difficult relationship. Economic relations between Ankara and Jerusalem are good and have been increasing steadily in recent years, although strategic military-to-military cooperation has been downgraded in the last decade.

Rhetoric is frequently hostile against Israel in Turkey. For instance, the appearance of Israeli flags during the Kurdistan referendum in Iraq in September 2017 caused anger in Ankara.

In addition, Turkey’s current government has been meeting more often with Iran. Would the opposition reduce relations with Iran? Not necessarily. Erdogan has sought to position himself as an Islamic leader on the Jerusalem issue, hosting Muslim leaders from around the world and expressing outrage at Israel’s Jerusalem policies.

The AKP also has had amicable relations with Hamas. The opposition parties are more secular, but they also champion the Palestinian cause. In the end, Israel-Turkish relations will not return to the period when they were closest, in the 1990s. The historic election, which is very important for Turkey and the region, will not change that. The likely effect is that an Erdogan victory will encourage his tough regional stance on Israel’s actions, whereas an opposition victory will cause Turkey to become more inwardly focused.

Russian air strikes back Syrian southern offensive. US to Southern Front rebels: You’re on your own

June 24, 2018

Source: Russian air strikes back Syrian southern offensive. US to Southern Front rebels: You’re on your own – DEBKAfile

At the same time, on Sunday, social media reported that the US through its embassy in Amman had sent this message to all Southern Front (rebel) leaders: Make your own decision, but “you should not base your decision on the assumption or expectation of military intervention by us.”

There is no official confirmation from Washington of this message. DEBKAfile: If the Trump administration has indeed backed away from supporting the southern front rebel leaders against Syrian army, Russian-backed attack, this may be interpreted as signifying President Donald Trump’s decision not to allow the contest over southwest Syria and Jordanian and Israel borderlands stand in the way of an early summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Israel would then be left to cope on its own with fending off the drive of the Syrian army and its allies, Hizballah and the pro-Iranian Shiite forces, up to its borders. In this eventuality, the IDF has two options:

  1. Non-intervention like the US and acceptance of a Syrian military presence along its northern border.
  2. Intervention by air and ground-to-ground missile strikes against Syrian military and allied targets to halt their advance. There is no sign of the Israeli government or military chiefs gearing up for such an operation.

But meanwhile, a Syrian refugee problem is building up on its Golan border. Some 12,000 refugees are reported to have fled their homes since the Syrian army captured small towns and villages in the Daraa province. Thousands are gathering on the Israeli border and setting up tents.