WarSclerotic

Obama’s retreat – Opinion – Jerusalem Post.

What was supposed to be a six-month interim agreement is in its 13th month and there is no end in sight.

The circumstances surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned speech before Congress next month, due to focus on the dangers of a nuclear Iran, have aroused a tremendous amount of controversy.

Putting aside for the moment the question of whether Netanyahu should go through with his speech – which is expected to be critical of the Obama administration’s policy vis-à-vis Tehran – the fact remains that a majority of Israelis are sincerely concerned that the White House has lost its resolve to stop the Islamic Republic’s march to nuclear weapons capability. This concern is well-founded.

Israel, the Saudis, the Jordanians and other American allies in the Middle East that would be directly threatened if Iran’s mullahs have weapons of mass destruction look around warily at President Barack Obama’s foreign policy and see few reasons to be optimistic.

In May 2009, Obama promised during his first joint press conference with Netanyahu at the White House, “We’re not going to have talks forever. We’re not going to create a situation in which talks become an excuse for inaction while Iran proceeds with developing a nuclear – and deploying a nuclear weapon.”

Yet six years later, Obama has little to show for his policy of engagement with the mullahs. The Iranians continue to develop centrifuges equipped with most advanced technologies, have maintained a stockpile of enriched uranium and have refused to give in to any of the most substantive demands made by the P5+1 (the US, Russia, China, France and Britain – and Germany).

Instead of sticking to his word and setting a final deadline for negotiations, Obama has insisted on leaving open the possibility for indefinite talks. He vows to veto a bipartisan bill that would take the modest step of replacing sanctions lifted after the signing of the 2013 Joint Plan of Action if Iran remains intransigent through June, when the third deadline for the interim agreement expires.

What was supposed to be a six-month interim agreement is in its 13th month and there is no end in sight.

Amplifying the concerns of Israelis and other American allies in the region is the increasing awareness that engagement with Iran is part of a broader US retreat on the international stage. From Iraq to Syria to Yemen to Ukraine, Obama is systematically scaling down America’s global commitments.

This conscious decision to adopt a more isolationist foreign policy was apparent as early as June 2009, when revelations of a fraudulent presidential election in Iran sparked a grassroots uprising referred to as the Green Revolution.

The Obama administration refrained from taking a strong stand against the violent repression of the demonstrations by Iranian police and paramilitary Basij forces that left dozens dead and hundreds imprisoned.

The most famous victim was Neda Soltan, shot down in the streets of Tehran by security forces, whose last moments of life went viral on YouTube.

If Obama had reacted decisively he could, perhaps, have led a Western coalition that threatened the Iranian regime with crippling economic sanctions and the expulsion of Iranian diplomats unless the repression stopped. At the very least, this would have strengthened the dissidents and sent a clear moral message.

In the years since, Obama has continued to withdraw US military force and influence from around the world.

He failed to maintain a residual troop presence in Iraq, which has made Islamic State’s offensive there much easier. He issued a threat against Syrian President Bashar Assad that the US would retaliate if Damascus dared to use chemical weapons, but backed down when Assad crossed this redline. He has watched silently as Yemen has been taken over by Shi’ite Houthi insurgents backed by Iran.

The US has resisted declaring war on Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria. In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, it has sent Ukrainians aid but not arms.

Israel and other US allies in the region take note of these developments and feel increasingly vulnerable. Will the US show the same lack of resolve against the Iran? Whether or not Netanyahu makes his speech to Congress, the message needs to be clear: Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped and not enabled by a bad deal pushed through by Obama.

Breaking: NYT Admits Obama Deliberately Manufactured Netanyahu Spat | Rob Miller | The Blogs | The Times of Israel.

February 2, 2015, 11:41 am

US coalition against ISIS is fraying. Gulf Arab partners mull withdrawal over Iran’s involvement.

A UAE Air Force Mirage 2000 jet

The group of nations US President Barack Obama assembled last September for an air offence against ISIS inroads in Iraq and Syria is fraying. Wednesday, Feb. 4, US officials admitted that the United Arab Emirates had suspended its air attacks in early December, directly after a Jordanian bomber was downed over the Islamic State’s Syrian headquarters in Raqqa and its pilot Lt. Mu’ath al Kassasbeh was taken prisoner.

He was later burned alive by Islamic State executioners, as a video released this week revealed.

Although the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Bahrain joined the coalition from the start, most observers believe their participation was more symbolic than active. Iraq has no air force to speak of and its army turned tail against Islamic State forces; the Saudis allotted a trifling number of planes to the effort; while Bahrain doesn’t have an air force at all. The UAE has the biggest and most modern air force in the Gulf region and so its withdrawal is a major blow to Washington’s war effort, such as it is.

It is noteworthy that neither Washington nor Amman has disclosed the scope of Jordan’s aerial activity since the pilot was captured.

The UAE dropped out more than a month ago, when it turned out after the Jordanian pilot’s capture that no personnel or facilities had been put in place to rescue air crews whose planes crashed behind enemy lines. The nearest US facility able to respond to this contingency is located in Kuwait, too far away to be able to reach downed air crews in time to save them from capture. This was and remains a source of major concern for all the air crews taking part in the coalition offensive.

The four Gulf Arab participants in the US-led group entertain profound reservations on another score: Iran’s increasing involvement in the US-led war on ISIS and the growing operational coordination between the two powers – especially in the Iraq arena – compared with Washington’s dwindling cooperation with the Gulf participants.

It is feared in Riyadh – and not just in Abu Dhabi – that the joint US-Iranian war effort against the Islamic State is providing a screen behind which the Obama administration is opening doors for Iran to advance its regional aspirations.

They are adamantly opposed to Obama’s policy in this regard and are loath to lend their air strength for its support. Therefore the entire Gulf component, and not just the UAE, may be quietly taking its leave of the US-led coalition against ISIS.

Netanyahu dismisses progress on Iran nuke talks | The Times of Israel.

PM says negotiations favoring compromise with Tehran will allow it to become threshold nuclear power

Benjamin Netanyahu, left, with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani in Jerusalem on February 2, 2015. (Photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday warned that reported progress on a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers was being made on Tehran’s term, repeating his call for the world to bar the country from becoming a nuclear threshold state.

Netanyahu was responding to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who said earlier this week that the two sides “have narrowed the gaps” to reaching a deal, but that “some issues and differences remain.”

Two diplomats close to the talks said the sides were discussing a possible compromise that would let Iran keep much of its uranium-enriching technology but reduce its potential to make nuclear weapons.

“Iranian President Rouhani said that the talks with world powers are advancing on a path set by Iran,” the prime minister said. “This path brings Iran to be a threshold nuclear power with international consent, with all the economic easing [Tehran has] demanded.”

Speaking at a road dedication, Netanyahu called for world powers to keep sanctions in place against Iran. Were economic pressures lifted, he said, Tehran would be able to arm itself with “many nuclear bombs.”

“This is very dangerous for the state of Israel, dangerous for the region, and dangerous for world peace,” he said.

Iran offered last year to reduce the output of its centrifuges if it could keep most of them going. That was rejected at the time by the US and its five negotiating partners. But both sides are under increasing pressure ahead of two deadlines: to agree on main points by the end of March, and to reach a comprehensive deal by June 30.

The latest negotiations have been extended twice, strengthening skepticism from both hardliners in Iran and critics in US Congress.

Failure this time could result in a push for new sanctions by influential US legislators, a move that some Iranian officials warn would scuttle any future diplomatic attempts to end the standoff.

The talks increasingly have become a dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany are also at the table but recognize that the US and Iran stand to gain — or lose — the most.

Iran now has withstood a decade of diplomatic and economic pressure aimed at reducing its program., as Washington demanded a year ago that Tehran reduce the number of operating centrifuges from nearly 10,000 to fewer than 2,000. That would increase the time it would need to make enough weapons-grade uranium from a few months to a year or more.