Archive for July 20, 2014

Israel must grit its teeth and keep going in Gaza

July 20, 2014

Israel must grit its teeth and keep going in Gaza

Israelis must endure the suffering and growing casualty list – or the country will be back in the same place very soon.

Published: 07.20.14, 19:25 / Israel Opinion

via Israel must grit its teeth and keep going in Gaza – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

 

In any war, campaign or operation there is a point at which the list of casualties grows at an alarming rate, and chilling stories emerge from the battlefield. And that moment has an immediate and resounding impact.

At that point, there is no difference between commanders and fighters, battle-hardened as they are, and civilians in the home front. The heart still skips a beat and blood still runs cold in the veins – even for those who were not directly involved in the fighting, even if those who were there did not lie about how the battle was fought.

This pain comes from a sense of loss and defeat, even if forces on the ground are achieving their aims and carrying out their mission.

But one can – and must – get past this. I experienced it in the Six-Day War and in similar situations since. What allows you to overcome this crisis is the knowledge that the human sacrifice was not in vain. Knowing that the fallen and wounded, the bereaved parents and those who are now permanently disabled have saved the lives of many others who needed protection and sacrifice of the fallen.

 

IDF troops in Gaza (Photo: AFP)
 

This is the case now. Israel launched Operation Protective Edge to end to the clear and present danger to the lives of Israelis posed by Hamas’ subterranean terrorist mechanism. This infrastructure was planned and built for one purpose only – to kill indiscriminately, kidnap hostages and bring the State of Israel to its knees (like with Gilad Shalit) and worse.

Even the threat of rocket fire is not negligible, despite the fact that Iron Dome and the precise IAF attacks have created an illusion of security. We knew there was a threat, but there was a sense that our lives were not really in danger if we only rushed to our protected spaces.

This was a virtual war, and we thought that the worst thing that could happen to us would be to run out of Iron Dome batteries or targets for the Air Force. This is not the case. The rocket threat from Hamas is real, and if goes on much longer there will also be more casualties – it is a question of statistics. And equally important – Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is watching from the sidelines and taking notes.

 

Palestinians fleeing the fighting in Gaza (Photo: AP)
 

We saw the results of the attacks on Gaza, and winced at the sight of destruction and dead children, but the ground operation rubbed in our faces all the ugliness and pain and made it personal for us.

There is no doubt that the events of Saturday night in the Gaza Strip will be presented by Hamas – and one has to admit, quite rightly so – as a victory of minds and media. The organization and its leaders will try to leverage this macabre achievement in the diplomatic negotiations that have not yet begun. But we cannot play into the hands of the terrorists who have so far in this operation failed in every attempt to harm us.

In the meantime, in these difficult days of war, the rumor-mongers on the social networks and on Whatsapp must behave responsibly and show some restraint. The wild rumors are unfair to those families whose sons are now fighting in Gaza. It’s time to break this habit.

The Israeli public cannot crumble, and the media cannot give off distress signals, not because it is neither pretty nor dignified to cry and show pain, but because any signs of distress or public pressure on the government to withdraw the troops will only increase Hamas and Islamic Jihad’s motivation to keep fighting – and harden their stance during ceasefire negotiations. This would lead to drawn-out negotiations, prolonged fighting and a higher casualty rate on both sides.

Even worse, we would be back here in a year or two, facing the same dilemmas and the same pain. So we have to grit our teeth, and keep blowing up every last tunnel and shaft we can find, until we can reach a durable, long-term ceasefire that the State of Israel and the Israeli government can live with.

13 soldiers killed overnight in fierce Gaza fighting

July 20, 2014

13 soldiers killed overnight in fierce Gaza fighting

Anti-tank missile struck armored personnel carrier, killing 7 of the IDF fatalities and triggering deadly close-quarter battles

By Mitch Ginsburg and Times of Israel staff July 20, 2014, 6:28 pm

via 13 soldiers killed overnight in fierce Gaza fighting | The Times of Israel.

 

Israeli Merkava tanks fire at the Gaza Strip from inside Israel on July 20, 2014. (photo credit: AFP/JACK GUEZ)
 

Thirteen soldiers were killed overnight when they encountered fierce resistance fighting in the dense urban environment of Gaza City, the IDF announced Sunday evening.

The central battle began when an anti-tank missile fired from within a Gaza building struck an Israeli armored personnel carrier, killing seven soldiers from the 13th battalion of the Golani Brigade, the army said.

The ambush, supported by machine gun fire, took place in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City, in the northern part of the 40-kilometer-long Strip.

In the ensuing fighting, an unspecified number of soldiers were wounded, including Col. Ghassan Elian, the commander of the Golani Brigade, whose wound was deemed light to moderate.

The army did not immediately release for publication the names of the soldiers who were killed. The families were informed earlier on Sunday. At least two of the Israeli soldiers killed were dual US-Israel nationals, according to IDF officials. All the 13 fatalities were from the Golani Brigade, the army said.

Since last night, 13 soldiers from the IDF’s Golani Brigade were killed while fighting Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

— IDF (@IDFSpokesperson) July 20, 2014

The IDF on Sunday dismissed rumors that one or more soldiers had been abducted. Capturing an Israeli soldier has been a goal for Hamas and other fighters in the area.

IDF Chief of General Staff said the IDF would not be deterred from its mission, to restore sustained security from Hamas attack for Israel’s citizens. He said the IDF would “learn from the incident” and that “the enemy had prepared” for conflict with Israel.

“In battle there are casualties, but our role is to fulfill missions –- and we will continue in that,” said Lt. Gen. Gantz. “The residents of Shajaiya, too, know that they fell victim to the deployment of Hamas personnel in the neighborhood.”

To the “misfortune of Gaza’s residents,” Gantz said, Hamas “instead of building houses, schools, hospitals and factories” had built a war machine in residential areas.

He said Israel mourned the loss of life and injury among Gaza civilians, but stressed that Israel had repeatedly warned residents of the area to evacuate because Hamas had deployed there. “We issued warning after warning,” he said, making phone calls, distributing leaflets and more. He said the IDF would make “every effort” to prevent civilian casualties, and that Israel was sending aid into Gaza, and had opened a field hospital on the border. No other army or country would act in this way, he said. But “in the end there is a mission, a moral obligation” to protect the people of Israel.

Overall, said Gantz, the IDF offensive against Hamas was proceeding well, and the soldiers were doing “fantastic work.” He said: “I’m proud of them. All of Israel should be proud of them.”

Hamas was losing “more of its people, more capabilities, more infrastructure” hour after hour. “We will maximize our achievements” Gantz said, and “strip them of their capabilities.” He urged the Isreli public to be patient and stand firm.

The ambush in which the seven soldiers were killed triggered a heavy aerial bombardment of the area, prompting thousands of residents to flee on foot, AFP reported. Reports quoted Palestinian medical officials in Gaza saying that more than 70 Palestinians, among them many civilians, were killed in the fighting. Thousands more fled the neighborhood.

Israeli officials said Shejaiya is a Hamas stronghold, and that 150 rockets had been launched from that area in the past two weeks, Israel’s Channel 2 said. Israeli military officials said Sunday that they had told civilians to leave the Shejaiya area days ago, ahead of IDF military action. Hamas has repeatedly told Gazans not to heed the Israeli warnings.

An army spokesperson added that the IDF has not been surprised by Hamas fighters’ willingness to engage its forces, saying it was “in line with our planning and assessments.”

The army, which has increased its troop presence in the Gaza Strip, reports having killed 130 gunmen since the ground operation began on Thursday night.

Much of the conflict over the past day has taken place in the north of the Gaza Strip.

The army found and demolished two tunnels in the area, stretching toward Kibbutz Zikim and Kibbutz Netiv Ha’asarah, and an additional 14 tunnels were being explored and readied for demolition.

IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Lerner said that much of the fighting has taken place in and around the tunnels. “Hamas are really trying to defend their tunnel infrastructure,” he said.

Lerner added that beyond the east-west tunnels dug in order to carry out attacks within Israel, the army has seen an array of offensive tunnels used within Gaza, in order to facilitate rocket fire and ambushes on incoming troops. “There’s a whole underground Gaza,” he said.

Four other IDF soldiers were killed in fighting earlier Saturday.

The Goldstone effect

July 20, 2014

The Goldstone effect, The Times of Israel Ops & Blogs,  , July 20, 2014

From the first day (July 8) of Israel’s response to renewed and deadly rocket attacks from Gaza, the network of highly politicized non-governmental organizations (NGOs) went into high gear. As in previous conflicts, powerful global groups such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Oxfam, allied with numerous Israeli and Palestinian organizations claiming human rights agendas, are issuing numerous condemnations, primarily directed at Israel. And once again, their reports and statements are quoted by political leaders and journalists without any independent examination, reinforcing existing biases and false allegations, and fuelling hate and violence.

Human Rights Watch, whose leaders have a long history of personal animosity, double-standards and false claims regarding Israel, repeated their accusations of “war crimes,” unlawful attacks and “targeting apparent civilian structures and killing civilians in violation of the laws of war.” These claims are invented and inconsistent with legal foundations and HRW positions in other conflict regions around the world – these attacks on Israel are unique. And while HRW bases its factual claims on “investigations” in Gaza, it is clear that the organization has no such capability.

In sharp contrast, as in the previous Gaza conflicts and the 2006 Lebanon War, the NGO network that claims to promote moral agendas has largely and patronizingly ignored Palestinian terror, and the massive tunnels and thousands of rockets acquired by Hamas, stored in homes, schools (including those run by the UN), mosques and hospitals. Every missile located among civilians and every attack against Israeli cities constitutes a war crime, but these are not part of the NGO network’s warped definition of human rights.

Groups like Oxfam and the War on Want (UK), whose objectives are ostensibly focused on providing humanitarian aid worldwide, blame Israeli restrictions and “collective punishment” for the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza. Yet these organizations never mention the fact that most of the resources, including cement, sent to Gaza are exploited by Hamas and Islamic Jihad for tunnels and to protect missiles that were acquired in order to kill Israelis.

Among Israeli groups, B’tselem has been particularly active in this round of political warfare. The NGO, with an annual budget of NIS 9 million, provided by donors such as the New Israel Fund and European governments, has issued numerous press releases, statements, and social media posts repeatedly accusing Israel of “unlawful” actions, and “illegal bombing.” Like HRW, B’tselem refers to its “investigations,” although the group has no such independent capability, and instead simply repeats unverifiable “testimonies” from Hamas-controlled Gaza. B’tselem, like HRW and Amnesty, has no way of determining whether the IDF is striking entirely legitimate military targets, whether the force used is proportionate to the military necessity, or the real number of civilian casualties in Gaza.

Other Israel-based NGOs making similar unsupported allegations include Adalah, Gisha, Breaking the Silence, Coalition of Woman for Peace, and the +972 blog. All receive funding from European governments, including the European Union and many of its member states, such as Germany, Holland, Belgium, Spain and the UK. The money channeled from European governments to these highly politicized NGOs – usually provided through highly secretive processes used to block independent democratic oversight – enables the Israel-based NGO network to contribute substantially to the exploitation of human rights for political warfare. Thus, while a number of European leaders are calling for restraint and seeking to play a role in cease-fire negotiations, the money that their governments provide via the NGOs is contributing substantially to the conflict.

A third group of NGOs involved in this process are Christian aid groups with a long history of anti-Israel campaigning, including Diakonia (Sweden), the American Friends Service Committee (Quakers), Broederlijk Delen (Belgium), Caritas Jerusalem (Catholic), and Sabeel. All repeat the standard accusations against Israel, adding a strong religious dimension to the political attacks.

This strategy of using NGOs that operate under the umbrella of human rights and humanitarian aid to condemn Israel was spelled out at the infamous 2001 UN Durban Conference. The first implementation took place in April 2002, during the IDF Operation Defensive Shield against the center of operations for the mass suicide bombings that had taken hundreds of Israeli lives, and injured many more. The NGO network – particularly Human Rights Watch and Amnesty — along with Palestinian officials, promoted the false allegation of a Jenin “massacre” and “war crimes”, and campaigned for the creation of a highly biased UN investigation. These campaigns were used to launch the academic boycott movement in the UK, and the wider anti-Israel BDS (boycotts, divestment, and sanctions) efforts.

The height of this process was the 2009 Goldstone Report – a 500 page document, which claimed to provide extensive evidence of Israeli human rights violations and “war crimes” during the Gaza conflict (Operation Cast Lead) that began on December 28 2008. This UN publication extensively referenced B’tselem, Amnesty, HRW, and many other NGOs. Although the entire report was later discredited, and Judge Goldstone acknowledged that the NGO-based allegations were unsupported, the impact, in terms of fueling boycotts and “lawfare” cases against Israeli officials, continues.

Nevertheless, during the current conflict, the same NGOs are again promoting the “war crimes” theme, and this form of the modern anti-Semitic blood libel is repeated in violent protests, particularly in Europe. Nothing seems to have been learned from the mistakes of the past, as these organizations and their funder-enablers continue to erode the very universal principles of human rights that they claim to uphold.

 

After airstrikes kill dozens in Gaza, Kerry backs Israel’s right to defend itself

July 20, 2014

After airstrikes kill dozens in Gaza, Kerry backs Israel’s right to defend itself

Army says it warned residents of Shejaiya to evacuate; US secretary says no nation ‘would sit there while rockets are bombarding it

By Times of Israel staff and AP July 20, 2014, 5:29 pm

via After airstrikes kill dozens in Gaza, Kerry backs Israel’s right to defend itself | The Times of Israel.

 

US Secretary of State John Kerry (Photo credit: AP/Hussein Malla)
 

US Secretary of State John Kerry said Israel “has every right in the world to defend itself” from attacks by Hamas in Gaza, but the US is working diligently to get an immediate ceasefire in place.

Kerry said Israel long has endured rocket attack by Hamas, and no nation “would sit there while rockets are bombarding it.” He said “thousands of rockets” were being fired at Israel. “People can’t live that way.”

Kerry also cited tunnels constructed by Hamas in what he said is “an obvious effort” to try to kidnap Israelis.

Kerry told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that it is “unacceptable by any standard anywhere in the world” and that Israel must protect its citizens.

Kerry also said he believes that President Barack Obama will want him to return to the Mideast shortly to see if a ceasefire can be put in place.

Israel’s cabinet was set to meet late Sunday to discuss the ongoing ground offensive against Hamas, with no likelihood of a ceasefire seen in the immediate future.

In interviews with US media on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had to stop the rockets and the Hamas tunnels. He said Israel needs “a sustainable ceasefire” and to work for a demilitarized Gaza. Speaking to CNN, Netanyahu said of Hamas: “They want to pile up as many dead civilians as they can… The more dead the better.”

Netanyahu and Kerry were speaking after Israeli strikes on Gaza’s Shejaiya neighborhood killed 60 people, Palestinian medical officials in the Gaza Strip reported.

Israeli officials said Shejaiya is a Hamas stronghold, and that 150 rockets had been launched from that area in the past two weeks, Israel’s Channel 2 said. Israeli military officials said Sunday that they had told civilians to leave the Shejaiya area days ago, ahead of IDF military action.

Experts: Israel ‘Mowing the Grass’ in Gaza

July 20, 2014

Experts: Israel ‘Mowing the Grass’ in GazaIsrael has a long-term strategy of attrition designed primarily to debilitate the enemy capabilities, says Begin-Sadat Center

By Arutz ShevaFirst Publish: 7/20/2014, 5:14 PM

via Experts: Israel ‘Mowing the Grass’ in Gaza – Defense/Security – News – Arutz Sheva.

 

Efraim Inbar Flash 90
 

Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Eitan Shamir of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Bar Ilan University liken Israel’s policy in Gaza to a periodic “mowing of the grass,” designed to debilitate the enemy capabilities as part of a long-term strategy of attrition.

The Israeli military offensive in Gaza “reflects the assumption that Israel is in a protracted intractable conflict,” write the researchers in a paper published Sunday. “It is unlikely that Israel can purge Hamas from Palestinian society, nor is a political solution likely to be achieved. Instead, Israel is acting in accordance with a ‘mowing the grass’ strategy. After a period of military restraint, Israel is acting to severely punish Hamas for its aggressive behavior, and degrading its military capabilities – aiming at achieving a period of quiet.

“Israel’s goal continues to be the establishment of a reality in which Israeli residents can live in safety without constant indiscriminate terror, while striking a significant blow to Hamas’ terror infrastructure. The Israeli government wisely has defined limited political and military goals for this offensive, in accordance with what we call a ‘mowing the grass’ strategy.

“Israel’s strategy in the twenty-first century against hostile non-state groups, such as Hamas, reflects the assumption that Israel finds itself in a protracted intractable conflict. The use of force in such a conflict is not intended to attain impossible political goals, but rather is a long-term strategy of attrition designed primarily to debilitate the enemy capabilities. Only after showing much restraint in its military responses, does Israel act forcefully to destroy the capabilities of its foes as much as possible, hoping that occasional large-scale operations also have a temporary deterrent effect in order to create periods of quiet along Israel’s borders.

“As the ground phase of ‘Operation Protective Edge’ progresses, Israel must be realistic about what can be achieved,” warn Inbar and Shamir. “Destroying the terror tunnels along the fence around Gaza is an attainable military goal. In the process terrorists can be killed and a part of the terrorist infrastructure demolished. The Israeli ground advance might create unrest within the Hamas organization, causing some of its military leadership to move around and make mistakes that could result in better intelligence and opportunities for targeted killings from the air.

“An expansion of the ground operation might exact an even higher price from Hamas. Continuous shelling of Israel by Hamas may inevitably lead to Israel’s conquest of all of Gaza. Yet, the strategic calculus should always focus on cost-effectiveness,” the experts conclude. “Despite the calls from the political Right in Israel, the demise of Hamas rule in Gaza is not an attainable military objective. Hamas is well-rooted in Palestinian society, particularly in Gaza. A recent Pew poll shows 35 percent of the Palestinians view Hamas in a favorable way, and in Gaza the level of support is always higher. Eradicating Hamas and the subsequent political engineering of Palestinian society is not something outsiders can do. Even if Hamas rule can be terminated, the alternatives are Israeli rule, the rule of more radical groups, or chaos. None are good options.”

Lapid: Nothing off the table in Gaza op

July 20, 2014

Lapid: Nothing off the table in Gaza op

Finance minister visits wounded soldiers in Be’er Sheva, emphasizes IDF operation will continue until it achieves targets.

Ynet reportersPublished: 07.20.14, 15:53 / Israel News

via Lapid: Nothing off the table in Gaza op – Israel News, Ynetnews.

 

“We will not limit ourselves with a timetable. We have a mission and we must execute it,” said Finance Minister Yair Lapid. The Yesh Atid chairman was visiting IDF soldiers wounded in the fighting in Gaza at Soroka Medical Center in Be’er Sheva on Sunday.

Prodded about the possibility that the IDF will seize the Gaza Strip, Lapid said “we have taken nothing off the table. The aim is to remove the threat of terror hanging over the State of Israel, and every option, including the occupation of the Strip, is on the table.”

The finance minister emphasized that “we will examine the possibility based on the goals we have set for ourselves. The mission says – we go in, we locate the terror tunnels and rocket launchers, we hit the leadership of Hamas’ military wing. We weaken Hamas in a manner that doesn’t allow it to operate as it has in the past few days.”

Lapid stressed that “we cannot allow ourselves tunnels out of which come out people with tranquilizers and handcuffs to kidnap soldiers and people or blow up kindergartens in the local communities. This will continue as much as it needs to continue.”

He said “the targets remain as they were. We launched this operation knowing them fully. We are collecting intelligence all the time. In the last day we caught 13 terrorists and each one of them becomes an intelligence source and gives relevant information on Hamas terrorism.”

Lapid talked about the conversations he conducted with the injured soldiers. “I walked between the wards and spoke to the Golani Brigade battalion commander and other company commanders. They mostly want to get back to their men and say to not give up, to not stop.”

The finance minister added: “War takes a toll, we knew that the moment we entered Gaza and even before. We were not looking to enter a fight. But we are not afraid because we understand that it’s part of the event and we must recognize that it will have heavy prices.”

Lapid emphasized “the heart goes out to the families. We wish a quick recovery for the injured and our thoughts are with the bereaved families. That’s the price.”

 

Hamas ‘Stubbornly’ Refusing Ceasefire, Says Kerry

July 20, 2014

Hamas ‘Stubbornly’ Refusing Ceasefire, Says Kerry

US Secretary of State roundly blames Hamas for the continuation of the conflict in Gaza.

By AFPFirst Publish: 7/20/2014, 4:43 PM

via Hamas ‘Stubbornly’ Refusing Ceasefire, Says Kerry – Defense/Security – News – Arutz Sheva.

 

John Kerry Reuters
 

US Secretary of State John Kerry Sunday blamed Hamas for the continuation of the conflict in Gaza, saying the Islamic militants were refusing all ceasefire efforts.

“They’ve been offered a ceasefire and they’ve refused to take the ceasefire,” Kerry told ABC television, adding that Hamas has “stubbornly” refused efforts to defuse the conflict “even though Egypt and others have called for that ceasefire.”

The Palestinian leadership on Sunday condemned a blistering Israeli attack on Gaza’s Shejaiya neighborhood as a “massacre” after more than 60 people were killed.

In a statement, the newly-inaugurated Palestinian Arab government described the attack as a “war crime” which required immediate international intervention.

“The Palestinian consensus government condemned in the strongest terms the heinous massacre committed by the Israeli occupation forces against innocent Palestinian civilians in the neighborhood of Shejaiya,” it said.

The office of president Mahmud Abbas also issued a similar statement condemning the attack as a “massacre.”

Israel ‘Planning Next Steps,’ Bennett Says

July 20, 2014

Israel ‘Planning Next Steps,’ Bennett Says – Defense/Security – News – Arutz Sheva.

Bennett warns that alternative to ground operation was ‘an Israeli 9/11.’

By Ido Ben Porat

First Publish: 7/20/2014, 12:19 PM

Ground offensive in Gaza

Ground offensive in Gaza

IDF/Flash 90

Israel’s ongoing defensive operation in Gaza, Operation Protective Edge, is critical to civilian safety, Minister Naftali Bennett said Sunday.

“The operation is vital, and it is progressing as we planned,” Bennett told Galei Tzahal (Army Radio).

The IDF has uncovered dozens of terrorist tunnels in northern Gaza. Several tunnels led far into Israel. One was used Saturday to attack soldiers in the Negev, killing two.

The operation’s necessity “goes beyond just the matter of tunnels,” Bennett noted.

“We’re definitely planning the next steps. If it weren’t for the ground operation, we would have woken up one day to an Israeli 9/11,” he warned.

“We’re paying a heavy price, and we will continue to pay a price, but we are preventing very serious attacks on innocent Israeli civilians,” he stated.

Coalition head MK Yariv Levin (Likud) made similar statements Sunday morning. “Israel ignored a ‘terror fortress’ in Gaza that could have led to terrorist attacks with unprecedented civilian casualties,” he stated.

“The current operation is a war of necessity, there were no other options,” he said. “The brave soldiers fighting in Gaza are fighting in an operation that is vital to the security of Israel’s citizens.”

Heavy Fighting in Gaza; 30 Enemies Killed

July 20, 2014

IDF sustains 26 casualties; new defense system saves at least four tanks

By: Meir Halevi SiegelPublished: July 20th, 2014

via The Jewish Press » » Heavy Fighting in Gaza; 30 Enemies Killed.

 

IDF soldiers head into battle, July 20, 2014.
Photo Credit: Edi Israel/Flash90
 

Twenty-six IDF soldiers were wounded today in fighting in the Gaza Strip, including a commander from the Golani Brigade who was lightly wounded. Four soldiers were transferred to Sheba Hospital in Tel Aviv, two who were lightly wounded and two listed in moderate condition. At Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon, five soldiers were listed in light to moderate condition.

At the same time, Army Radio said that ferocious battles have been raging in Gaza since this morning (Sunday) between the IDF and Hamas. Last night the IDF destroyed two terror tunnels and wounded dozens of Hamas members. IDF officials reported that at least 30 enemy soldiers were killed in the fighting.

The army also said the Windbreaker tank defense system has proven itself during the current engagement. At least four tanks of senior commanders were saved by the Windbreaker system – a technological accomplishment no less significant than the Iron Dome missile defense system, Army Radio reported.

What’s next after the Iran nuclear deal extension?

July 20, 2014

What’s next after the Iran nuclear deal extension? – Al Arabiya News.

After failing to meet the July 20 deadline to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal, and after 16 days of intense diplomatic negotiations in Vienna, the six world powers (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China) and Iran agreed to extend the interim nuclear deal for an additional four months until November 24, 2014.

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has proposed another plan that indicates that the Islamic Republic would put a cap on Iran’s nuclear enrichment between three to seven years; however, Iran would be permitted to enrich uranium as much as they desire after this period.

Who is the winner?

With regard to the Islamic Republic, Iran is going to receive an additional $2.8 billion in oil export revenues. These revenues are frozen in other countries due to the sanction imposed by the United States. Secretary of State John Kerry pointed out the P5+1 “will allow Iran access to $2.8 billion dollars of its restricted assets, the four-month prorated amount of the original JPOA [Joint Plan of Action] commitment.”

Financially speaking, in the first six months of the interim nuclear deal, Iran won by receiving approximately $7 billion. Part of these amounts came after sanctions relief on some Iranian industries including the automobile industry, gold, and petrochemicals. The rest of the $7 billion came from the release of the frozen assets in oil-export revenues.

With regards to the United States, President Barack Obama has successfully avoided dealing with the other option (which he is totally reluctant to cope with): The military option in case nuclear negations and diplomacy with the Iranian leaders failed.

Critical dealings

The two critical and major players in these nuclear talks are the United States and the Islamic Republic. With regard to the nuclear settlement, the gap between the Islamic Republic and United States is still too deep to bridge.

Considering the intricacies and examining Iran’s nuclear file and Tehran’s defiance, it becomes evident that the four month extension of diplomatic negotiations is barely enough to resolve these major hurdles.

The major barriers between the P5+1 (mainly the Western members: France, United Kingdom, Germany and the United States) and the Islamic Republic come down to the restriction of Iran’s production of plutonium, the dismantlement of crucial segments of the uranium enrichment program, the limiting of stockpiling and production, the question of Fordow, its underground nuclear facility center, the extent as to how the Islamic Republic should provide data with regards to its development, what type of nuclear research can be carried out, and how many centrifuges Iran can retain.

As illustrated above, the gaps between the six world powers and Iran would more likely require more than four months of extensions as well as a significant shift in Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s stance on his government’s nuclear program, or a remarkable change in the six world power’s stance.

It appears that the aim of the United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom is to make sure that Iran’s nuclear program is restricted enough that the Islamic Republic would require a much longer amount of time to spin its centrifuges and highly enriched uranium into nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and the hardliners appear to be aiming at elevating the Islamic Republic to a nuclear threshold (such as Japan), if not turning Iran into nuclear state and obtaining nuclear weapons.

Oppositions and domestic politics

Most likely, the domestic pressure on the Obama administration, from both Republican and Democrats, is going to ratchet up in Washington. Several lawmakers in Washington believe that the Iranian leaders have been playing around and tricking the United States, while Tehran is getting sanction relief without agreeing to dismantle any part of its nuclear program.

U.S. Senator Bob Corker, a Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stated, “With a disappointing beginning negotiating position that included a built-in extension, we all knew this was coming… In spite of that, every diplomatic effort should be pursued vigorously to reach an acceptable conclusion and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. I urge the administration to make it clear there will be no more extensions, which would only further diminish our leverage. Just as he did in the case of Syria last year, the president should come to Congress for approval so we can weigh in on the entirety of any final deal and strictly enforce Iranian compliance.”

300 members of Congress recently signed a letter to President Obama, urging that the Islamic Republic should stop supporting terrorists’ parties and limit its missile development in order to obtain sanctions relief. Nevertheless, President Obama did not include these conditions in the four month extension and sanctions relief.

In addition, all the efforts the U.S. congress, such as passing a sanction bill, will likely be vetoed by President Obama to not scuttle the diplomatic negotiations and to avoid the military option if nuclear talks failed.

On the other hand, hardliners, fundamentalists, and conservative elements in Iran will ratchet up their criticism of President Hassan Rowhani and Foreign Minister Zarif. Nevertheless, as long as Rowhani has the blessing of the Supreme Leader, the nuclear negotiations will not cease. In the meanwhile, Khamenei will continue playing the double game of supporting both Rowhani’s technocrat team and the hardliners in order to preserve his power.