Archive for June 2014

Iranian threats

June 27, 2014

Iranian threats | JPost | Israel News.

By JPOST EDITORIAL

 06/26/2014 20:37

As the Islamic Republic becomes over-extended in Syria and Iraq, and continues to face sanctions, it might be more willing to make concessions on its nuclear program.

peres obama

President Shimon Peres with US President Barack Obama at the White House Photo: OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

US President Barack Obama assured outgoing President Shimon Peres, who was at the White House for a farewell visit this week, that the United States will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, and will continue to remain steadfast on topics central to Israel’s security in the nuclear negotiations.

This is a reassuring message as representatives of the P5+1 (the US, Russia, China, France and Britain plus Germany) get set to sit down with their Iranian counterparts in Vienna this coming Wednesday for the sixth round of talks on stopping the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program.

Besides Obama’s promises, however, there are very few reassuring signs that Iran is willing to comply with even the most basic demands made by the US and other members of the P5+1.

The two sides have reached tentative understandings on reducing the amount of plutonium – a second route to fuel for a bomb besides enriched uranium – that will be produced by a heavy-water reactor under construction near the town of Arak. And there are reports of a possible compromise that would turn a deep underground facility called Fordow, where there are 3,000 centrifuges, into a “research facility.”

But there is no agreement on almost every other relevant issue. While the US and other P5+1 members want to reduce the number of centrifuges Iranians currently have to enrich uranium, the Iranians want to actually increase the number of centrifuges by over 10,000 from the current number of 19,000. Even if the number of centrifuges remain unchanged, Iran would be able to make a “dash” for a bomb in a few months, as US Secretary of State John Kerry noted in comments made to the Senate in April.

There are other unresolved disputes, including whether Iran would have to reveal to international inspectors work that it is suspected of doing on weapons design in the absence of conclusive proof.

Senior American negotiator Wendy R. Sherman, undersecretary of state for policy, was diplomatic yet clearly pessimistic when she said she doubted whether “Iran is really ready and willing to take all the steps necessary to assure the world” it has no desire or ability to produce a nuclear weapon.

Iranian duplicity regarding its nuclear arms program is nothing new. But perhaps never before have the potential dangers of an Islamic Republic with nuclear capabilities been so evident. The Islamic Republic’s aspirations to expand its influence throughout the region are not just hypothetical. Iran is capitalizing on the dissolution of old national borders. The Iranians are providing troops, weapons and advice to Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and expanding their influence in Lebanon via their proxy, Hezbollah.

In Iraq there are reports that Iranian drones are being used against Al Qaeda-affiliated, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) forces. And if it has not already begun to send troops into Iraq to carve out territory for a Shia state, Iran might begin to do so soon. There are reports that Shia forces fighting in Syria against Sunni opposition groups are now heading to Iraq. Hezbollah, meanwhile, may be sending more militants to Syria to replace them.

The US and Israel actually have an interest in seeing Iranian- backed militants battle it out against ISIS forces and weaken one another. In fact, as the Islamic Republic increasingly becomes over-extended in Syria and Iraq, and as sanctions continue to take a toll on the Iranian economy, Iran might be more willing to make concessions on its nuclear program.

At the same time, however, the Iranians are even more desperate than ever to attain nuclear weapons capability.

They realize that having a nuclear bomb would be a game changer in the Sunni-Shia clash. They already have the missile capability to hit almost every capital in the Middle East, but the Iranians would not have to actually use their nuclear weapons. The very fact that they have them would provide the Islamic Republic and their proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and the Gaza Strip ‘a nuclear umbrella.’ Any group or state attacked by Iran or one of its proxies would think twice before striking back against so powerful an enemy.

That’s why it is imperative for the P5+1, who convene in Vienna next week for the sixth round of negotiations with the Islamic Republic, to keep in mind precisely what is at stake.

The world’s greatest power

June 27, 2014

The world’s greatest power | Jerusalem Post – Blogs.

“America’s status as the greatest power means that the rest of us ought to rely primarily on ourselves. ” Superb, if painful piece… – JW )

Ira Sharkansky

This has not been a good time for those who would rely on the power and wisdom of the United States. It has not been any better for Americans who may think of their country is better than others, and a world leader.

Calls for decency, accommodation and/or reform by Barack Obama are being ignored or rejected by Vladimir Putin, Nouri al-Maliki, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. They’re the rulers of three important countries, as measured by size, population, natural resources or military potential. Putin is doing whatever he does for his own reasons in Ukraine. al-Maliki is not about to include a full range of Iraq’s ethnic and religious sectors in his government, and el-Sisi will not comply with American advice about the Muslim Brotherhood or extending American styles of freedom to journalists.

Only recently did the American President, coupled with his sonorous Secretary of State, receive similar treatment from Benyamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas.

Current betting is that we can forget about American commitments to keep Iran from being able to create nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them.

The Assad regime may have rid itself of “poison gas,” as demanded by the United States and others, but is still dumping chlorine on opponents.

America’s European allies are not being as nasty as Putin, al-Maliki el-Sisi, or Assad, but they are not lining up with American preferences about sanctioning Russia. There is too much business to be done there, and who really views the Ukraine as an enlightened place that must be preserved in one or another set of boundaries? Russia, Poland, Germany, and Austria have taken and given up pieces of that place over the course of centuries. Western European populations are tired of migrants from Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, and are not inclined to welcome job and welfare seekers from Ukraine.

All told, it doesn’t look good for the world’s greatest power.

No doubt that the US is unmatched in economic wealth and military power. However, it hasn’t had even a half-way decent war since Korea, and that ended in a tied score, with the miserable North subsequently able to slip through sanctions to reach nuclear capacity.

We can overlook those who tout America’s success in Grenada or Panama.

The nasties may say that the US gets what it deserves from a political process that rests on presidential primaries, and allows the choice of the prettiest, best speaking candidate with mass appeal, despite a lack of governmental experience.

Barack Obama’s CV features schooling and growing up in places far from the American cultural main stream, in Hawaii, Indonesia, and whatever he acquired from visits with his Kenyan family. Yet he has shown little sense of what moves people who have been at the center of world problems for several decades. We can argue if the Islamic threat began with the Iranian revolution, American support of Muslims from all over to battle Russians in Afghanistan, or migrations of North Africans to Europe. 9-11 ratcheted things upward, and now we are seeing the output of Arab Spring.

The earliest sign of Obama’s naivete was dumping the man who was arguably the most moderate and pro-western of any ruler of a major Muslim country on the claim that he was not sufficiently democratic. Mubarak’s Egypt did not fall all that far from Chicago’s standards of political purity or the opportunities available to all its people.

One of Israel’s left-wig commentators led off a discussion on a prime time TV program with the speculation that the US national government has the service of at least 200,000 specialists in the Middle East, most of Arab extraction. So what happened? Then came an academic who specializes in American politics, who usually finds something positive to say about the country he has spent his career studying. He shared the wonder of the program’s moderator, and could offer no explanation other than American self-centered ignorance of others.

The current worry is Iraq, and the possibility of its loss either to Sunni fanatics from all over, or the Shiite fanatics of Iran. Next in line may be Jordan, with an always problematic population propped up initially by Britain and then by the United States. Given Jordan’s vulnerability to Syrian chaos on one border and Iraqi chaos on another, with the United States proving to be a  unreliable source of support, some are looking at Israel for help. They include Israelis who worry about the fall of Jordan, and Islamic fanaticism coming to their own eastern border  to join the worries about Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the ever present  floundering of whoever is running the West Bank.

Those wanting Israel to save Jordan overlook the disinclination of Jordanians for its help. No self-respecting Arab or Muslim can admit dependence on the Jews. Maybe the IDF can do the work in its Arab dress and beards, used for dealing with the bad guys in the West Bank and the Arab villages of Israel. If the job falls to the Israeli Air Force, they might overpaint the Stars of David with an Arab crescent, and claim to be Syrian.

Barring those possibilities, we will have to rely on a disciplined Jordanian army and a savvy king to deal effectively with the rag tag gangs operating in Iraq and Syria.

Despite the problems emanating from the top, there is no doubt about the power of the United States. Its industry, science, and technology created major portions of what we have learned to use and value. The citizens and governments of other countries line up for access to the goodies on offer.

Future historians will quarrel if the aggression of George W. Bush or the bluster then timidity of Barack Obama did more harm or good for the Middle East, the world, and the United States. Some will conclude that all would have been better off if others had been chosen to lead the greatest power in the elections from 2000 through 2012.

Growing up in Fall River, I liked the place and didn’t realize how much it reflected the downside of the US. Once I acquired familiarity with social indicators I learned that I came from a town where the average adult had not gotten half-way through high school, and close to a third of young people do not finish high school. The data has not changed much in the half century since I left. Reports that Boston ships some of its homeless to the cheap housing of Fall River do not portend a better future.

The whole of the US is only somewhat less problematic. Lots of readers will protest that they are living well, and they are. But the bottom 25% or so isn’t much better off–or even worse–than the average Mexican. Data showing two-thirds of African American males with police records, and being the world leader for incarcerations are as damning as American life expectancy that puts the US securely in the Third World.

America’ status as the greatest power means that the rest of us ought to rely primarily on ourselves.

Syria crisis: Obama asks Congress for $500m for rebels

June 27, 2014

GMTSyria crisis: Obama asks Congress for $500m for rebels

26 June 2014 Last updated at 20:41

via BBC News – Syria crisis: Obama asks Congress for $500m for rebels.

 

Syrian rebels have been fighting forces loyal to the country’s president, Bashar al-Assad
 

President Barack Obama has asked the US Congress to approve $500m (£294m) to train and equip what he described as “moderate” Syrian opposition forces.

The funds would help Syrians defend against forces aligned with President Bashar al-Assad, the White House said.

The aid would also counter Islamist militants such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), it added.

Isis’s advance in neighbouring Iraq has led some in Congress to press Mr Obama to take action.

Tens of thousands of people have died and millions more have been displaced in three years of civil war in Syria, as rebels fight troops loyal to Mr Assad.
‘Increase our support’

“This funding request would build on the administration’s longstanding efforts to empower the moderate Syrian opposition, both civilian and armed,” the White House said.

It will also “enable the Department of Defense to increase our support to vetted elements of the armed opposition”.

The money will help stabilise areas under opposition control and counter terrorist threats, the White House said.

The rebels that would receive the funds would be vetted beforehand in order to alleviate concerns of equipment falling into the hands of militants hostile to the US and its allies, the White House said.

Mr Obama has been under strong pressure from some members of Congress to increase assistance in the area, although it is unclear whether and when Congress would act on his request.

Last month Mr Obama hinted at increased help for the Syrian opposition in a speech at the military academy at West Point.

He said he would work with Congress to “ramp up support for those in the Syrian opposition who offer the best alternative to terrorists and a brutal dictator”.

EU signs pacts with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova

June 27, 2014

GMTEU signs pacts with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova

27 June 2014  Last updated at 10:23

via BBC News – EU signs pacts with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

 

Mr Poroshenko (C) said the pact was a “symbol of faith and unbreakable will”
 

Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have signed partnership agreements with the European Union, in a move strongly opposed by Russia.

The pact – which would bind the three countries more closely to the West both economically and politically – is at the heart of the crisis in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said making Ukraine choose between Russia and the EU would split it in two.

A ceasefire with pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine is due to end on Friday.

Mr Putin called for a long-term ceasefire to allow talks between the government and separatists.

Meanwhile the United Nations refugee agency said there had been a sharp rise in the numbers of displaced people in eastern Ukraine in the past week, with 16,400 people fleeing the area.

The total number internally displaced has reached 54,400, while a further 110,000 people left Ukraine for Russia this year.
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Analysis: Steve Rosenberg, BBC News Moscow

There is a general sense of irritation or perhaps even anger here that Moscow has failed to convince countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia not to sign this historic free trade deal today with the EU.

Moscow has economic concerns about these deals – it is worried that the Russian market could be flooded by cheap goods from the EU that would hit Russian producers.

More pressing for Moscow are the geopolitical concerns here – the whole idea of former Soviet states, countries that Moscow still views as being within its sphere of influence, drifting towards Europe and one day possibly becoming part of the EU – that really grates with Moscow, particularly in the case of Ukraine.

There’s a lot of concern about what could happen in eastern Ukraine – the ceasefire announced a few days ago by Mr Poroshenko, and the ceasefire announced by armed separatist rebels, is due to expire today. It’s unclear how things are going to develop later.

Europe ‘losing patience’ over settlements, says envoy

June 27, 2014

Europe ‘losing patience’ over settlements, says envoy

Spain and Italy issue warnings against commercial ties with West Bank, while EU ambassador warns more will follow

By Times of Israel staff June 27, 2014, 1:58 pm

via Europe ‘losing patience’ over settlements, says envoy | The Times of Israel.

 

EU Ambassador to Israel Lars Faaborg-Andersen (photo credit: Yossi Zwecker)
 

he European Union’s ambassador to Israel, Lars Faaborg-Andersen, has warned once again that European states were “losing patience” with the continued growth of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

The comment came Friday, after Spain and Italy joined France, Germany and the UK in warning its citizens against engaging in commercial ties with West Bank settlements. France had issued a similar declaration last week, while the foreign offices of Germany and Britain did so several months ago.

“These warnings don’t surprise us,” Faaborg-Andersen told journalists at a Geneva Initiative event on Friday. “The states [of the EU] are losing patience when it comes to continued construction in the settlements, and if the trend continues, more countries will join these warnings against businesses operating over the Green Line,” he warned, according to the Israeli Hebrew-language media.

According to a Friday report in the Italian La Stampa daily, Italy’s Foreign Minister Federico Mogherini cautioned Italians “not to get involved in financial activity and investments” in settlements. The warning is given “in accord with other European countries” and reflects Italy’s implementation of “a political decision taken earlier,” Mogherini said, according to the paper.

The Italian statements, issued on behalf of the EU, the presidency of which it takes over next week, said financial transactions, investments, purchases, contracts and tourism in Israeli settlements only benefit the settlements.

It said companies who do so should consider possible human rights violations and “the potential negative implications of such activities on their reputation or image.”

The international community regards most Israeli building over the Green Line as contrary to international law, though most rounds of peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians centered on negotiating a new, agree-upon boundary that would keep most Israeli settlers within Israel, as most settlers live adjacent to the Green Line that divides Israel and the West Bank.

Israel has annexed East Jerusalem, the part of the city over the Green Line that includes the Western Wall and Temple Mount, Judaism’s holiest site, but the move has not been recognized internationally.

The warnings call the settlements “obstacles to peace” which “threaten to make the two-state solution impossible.”

An Israeli diplomatic official shrugged off the warnings Friday, calling them “a political statement disguised as a legal one, and as such one that merely reiterates old and well-known European positions,” according to the Hebrew-language NRG news site.

The “vague wording of the statements points to the weak legal foundations of the warning,” the official said.

AFP and AP contributed to this report.

Israel names suspects in kidnapping of three teens

June 27, 2014

Israel names suspects in kidnapping of three teensHamas operatives

Amer Abu Aysha and Marwan Kawasme have been absent from their homes in Hebron since youths went missing

By Avi Issacharoff and Adiv Sterman June 26, 2014, 8:08 pm

via Israel names suspects in kidnapping of three teens | The Times of Israel.

 

Marwan Kawasme (right) and Amer Abu Aysha, suspected by Israel of kidnapping three Israeli teens (photo credit: courtesy)
 

Israeli authorities on Thursday named two West Bank Palestinians as prime suspects in the kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank two weeks ago.

The two alleged abductors, Amer Abu Aysha and Marwan Kawasme, are both known Hamas members. They have been missing from their homes in Hebron’s Hares neighborhood ever since the kidnapping took place on the night of June 12 and are still at large. Israeli security forces have been engaged in a massive operation to find the abducted youths.

The identities of the suspected kidnappers, who attended prayer services regularly at the same mosque, have been known to Israel since soon after the kidnapping, but were kept secret as the search operation continued over the past two weeks. They are alleged to have been in the car in which Gil-ad Shaar, Eyal Yifrach and Naftali Fraenkel were abducted from a hitchhiking post near the settlement of Alon Shvut in the Eztion Bloc south of Jerusalem, Israeli officials said. Other members of their Hamas group have been arrested, the officials added.

Abu Aysha, a 32-year-old locksmith, was last seen at a family gathering only hours before the kidnapping, according to his father Omar, who spoke to The Times of Israel in Hebron several days ago. Abu Aysha’s father, Omar, who has spent time in an Israeli prisons for ties with Hamas, said that his son left the family gathering abruptly without offering any details as to his destination.

 

Omar Abu Aysha, father of suspected kidnapper Amer Abu Aysha, in his home in Hebron (photo credit: Ziv Koren)
 

Abu Aysha’s brother Zayd, also a member of Hamas, was killed in November 2005 during a clash with IDF soldiers in Hebron. Abu Aysha’s mother told The Times of Israel that unlike Zayd, Abu Aysha was a family man who was deeply involved in the lives of his wife and three children. She said he had worked in Jerusalem as well as in Azaria, east of the city. She added that she too last saw Abu Aysha on Thursday, June 12, before the abduction, and said she did not notice anything unusual in his behavior.

However, Abu Aysha’s mother added, if her son did take part in the kidnapping, she was proud of him and hoped he would continue to evade capture, both by Israeli and Palestinian Authority security forces.

 

The three kidnapped Israeli teens, from L-R: Eyal Yifrach, 19, Naftali Fraenkel, 16, and Gil-ad Shaar, 16. (photo credit: courtesy)
 

The second suspect, Kawasme, a 29-year-old barber who used to cut Abu Aysha’s kids’ hair, was detained by the Palestinian Authority and by Israel in the past. His family is known to be affiliated with Hamas. His uncle Abdullah Kawasme was the commander of the organization’s military wing in Hebron and was killed in a battle with SWAT officers in November 2003.

Hamas officials in Hebron confirmed the two suspects were members, and said Israeli troops have targeted the men’s homes since the beginning of the operation. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because of fears for their safety, said troops had entered the homes several times, conducting intense searches and confiscating items as evidence.

A senior Palestinian intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media, said the two suspects are believed to be hiding and that Palestinian security forces were also searching for them.

 


Amer Abu Aysha’s wife, Ikarm, hold a picture of her husband, suspected in the kidnapping of three Israeli youths

 

He said the fact that the two men have been missing since the kidnapping is “clear evidence they have links with the abduction.”

Israel has blamed Hamas for the kidnapping of Fraenkel, Yifrach and Shaar, though the Islamist group has denied involvement. Thousands of Israeli troops have searched hundreds of locations in the West Bank and arrested some 400 Palestinians, many from Hamas, including some who were freed in a 2011 prisoner exchange for Hamas-kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

In recent days, search efforts have focused on an area north of Hebron, where some 1,500 soldiers have been deployed. Some areas are now being searched for the third and fourth time.

The IDF’s Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz said Tuesday that “as time passes, the fear grows,” but stressed that Israel’s working assumption is that the three Israeli teenagers are alive.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

King Abdullah calls up Saudi armed forces on high preparedness. Egyptian troops ready to fly to kingdom

June 26, 2014

King Abdullah calls up Saudi armed forces on high preparedness. Egyptian troops ready to fly to kingdom, DEBKAfile, June 26, 2014

Saudi_special_forces_on_alert_26.6.14Saudi special operations force on the ready

This is just what US Secretary of State John Kerry meant when he said in Brussels Wednesday June 25, after two days of talks in Iraq, that “the war in Iraq is being widened.”

The Iraqi battle arena is become a veritable Babel of war. So far, seven countries are involved in varying degrees: the US, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Thursday, June 26, the day before US Secretary of State John Kerry was due in Riyadh, King Abdullah summoned a National Security Council meeting “upon the current security events in the region, especially in Iraq,” and ordered “all necessary measures to protect the kingdom against terrorist threats.” This meant a general call-up of military units for a high level of preparedness.

DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose that Egypt is assembling an expeditionary commando force to fly to Saudi Arabia and bolster its border defenses.

This flurry of Saudi-Egyptian military steps comes in the wake of intelligence gathered by Saudi reconnaissance planes showing Iraqi Al Qaeda-linked Sunni fighters (ISIS) heading for the Saudi border and aiming to seize control of the Iraqi-Saudi crossing at Ar Ar (pop: 200,000).

ISIS and its Sunni allies are still on the march after capturing Iraq’s border crossings with Syria and Jordan earlier this week.

On Wednesday, Kerry warned Mideast nations against taking new military action in Iraq that might heighten sectarian divisions.

By then, he had been overtaken by a rush of events, as DEBKAfile reported this morning.

When the first of the 300 military advisers US President Barack Obama promised the Iraqi government arrived in Baghdad Wednesday, June 25, Iranian and Saudi Arabian arms shipments were already in full flow to opposing sides in embattled Iraq, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.

At least two cargo planes from bases in Iran were landing daily at Baghdad’s military airport, carrying 150 tons of military equipment. More than 1,000 tons were flown in this past week alone. Tehran has replicated for the Iraqi army the routine it established for Bashar Assad’s army, furnishing its needs on a daily basis as per its commanders’ requests. Those requests come before a joint Iranian-Iraqi headquarters set up at the Iraqi high command in Baghdad for approval and the assigning of priorities for shipment.

At the same time, Saudi arms are flowing to the Iraqi Sunni tribes fighting alongside the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) against the Iraqi army and the Shiite Nouri al-Maliki’s government.

They are coming in both overland and by airlift.

Saudi arms convoys are crossing the border into Iraq with Saudi and Jordanian air force cover and heading north up to the Al-Qa’im district near the Syrian border. There, Sunni and ISIS fighters, after capturing this key Anbar district, have begun refurbishing the bases and runways at H-2, once one of Saddam Hussein’s largest airbases. Situated 350 kilometers west of Baghdad, this air base has two long runways and hangars for fighter planes and helicopters.

DEBKAfile‘s military sources disclose that, on Tuesday June 24, unmarked civilian cargo planes landed at the base, bringing arms shipments from Saudi Arabia.

The response was swift. Syrian warplanes, on their first bombing mission inside Iraq, tried to damage the partially repaired runways at H-2 to prevent any more Saudi air shipments from landing.

Military sources in Washington confirmed Wednesday June 25 that those air strikes were conducted by the Syrian Air Force “in Anbar province” and left at least 57 people dead and 120 wounded – most of them Iraqi civilians. They declined to say what was attacked, referring only to ISIS-related targets.

That incident was a striking demonstration of the tight operational sync between the Iranian command centers in Damascus and Baghdad, which are attached respectively to the high commands of the Syrian and Iraqi armies. This coordination offers Tehran the flexibility for its command centers in both Arab capitals to send Iranian drones aloft from Syrian or Iraqi airbases to feed those centers with the intelligence they need for the strategic planning of military operations to be conducted by the Syrian and Iraqi armies.

Iranian command centers in Baghdad and Damascus are fully equipped therefore to decide which Syrian, Iraqi or Hizballah force carries out a planned operation in either Syria or Iraq. Both are now pushing back against further ISIS advances towards its goal of a Sunni caliphate spanning both countries.

This is just what US Secretary of State John Kerry meant when he said in Brussels Wednesday June 25, after two days of talks in Iraq, that “the war in Iraq is being widened.”

He had good reason to sound worried. Shortly before he spoke, the first group of US military personnel, out of the 300 that President Obama had promised, had arrived in Baghdad. But neither Tehran nor Riyadh had consulted Washington before they organized heavy arms shipments to their respective allies in Iraq.

The Iraqi battle arena is become a veritable Babel of war. So far, seven countries are involved in varying degrees: the US, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

For Israel at the UN, a Jordanian ‘ray of light’?

June 26, 2014

For Israel at the UN, a Jordanian ‘ray of light’?Jerusalem hopes that as Human Rights Council chief, Prince al-Hussein will curb the UN body’s famously strident criticism

June 26, 2014, 5:35 pm

via For Israel at the UN, a Jordanian ‘ray of light’? | The Times of Israel.

 

 

On September 1, Jordanian Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein will start his term as the United Nation’s human rights chief, being the first Arab to hold that influential position. Israel always had an exceedingly tense relationship with the UN’s human rights apparatus, and some pro-Israel advocates have railed against his appointment, pointing to critical remarks about Israel he made in the past.

Is Jerusalem concerned that under the new UN High Commissioner for Human Rights — a scion of an Arab dynasty — the body will turn even more hostile toward Israel?

The Foreign Ministry has resolutely refused to comment on al-Hussein ’s appointment. Diplomats there are likely worried that praising him publicly would be counterproductive. Accolades from the Israeli government would certainly increase pressure on him from Arab member states to be tough on Israel, a scenario Jerusalem seeks to avoid.

Yet Israel is actually very pleased about al-Hussein replacing Navi Pillay, believing he was the best choice of all candidates under consideration for the position. The Amman-born diplomat is thought to be the most reasonable and approachable human rights commissioner Israel could have hoped for. Indeed, in 2006, Israel’s ambassador to the UN had hailed al-Hussein as a “ray of light” in the region that he hoped “would shine more frequently in the future.”

Unaware of Jerusalem’s unspoken appreciation for al-Hussein, some pro-Israel advocates criticized his appointment for his positions on Israeli policies in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Some accused him of equating Palestinian suicide bombings with Israel’s “horrific” actions toward the Palestinians.

Human rights lawyer and pro-Israel advocate Anne Bayefsky, for instance, suggested al-Hussein is likely to abuse his position to agitate against Israel. “So how likely is it that a High Commissioner for Human Rights who comes from a country that is a member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation — which has hijacked the UN Human Rights Council to serve as its personal Israel-bashing tool — will confront his nation’s allies and refuse to become part of the problem?” she told the Washington Free Beacon earlier this month. “The answer is, as the British would say, not bloody likely,” Bayefsky said.

Speaking at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) about Israel’s separation wall, al-Hussein said in 2004 that “suicide bombings have indeed been nothing less than horrific.” He then added that “those events do not stand by themselves. Israel’s argument, centered as it is on the sporadic suicide bombings of the last three years in particular, must be weighed against almost four decades of Israel dominating and, by virtue of its occupation, degrading, an entire civilian population; often unleashing practices, which have been no less horrific, resulting in a huge number of innocent Palestinian deaths and casualties.”

Al-Hussein made this statement in his role as Jordan’s representative to the ICJ, as the court was considering the security barrier’s legality. “The case was a farcical ‘legal’ exercise that answered a ‘question’ posed by the General Assembly,” Bayefsky said. “The Assembly had already decided the illegality of ‘the Wall’ and gave the court the information to ‘prove’ the foregone conclusion.”

 

A Palestinian man walks past the Israeli security barrier in the East Jerusalem village of Abu Dis (photo credit: Kobi Gideon/Flash90).
 

Regarding al-Hussein’s suggestion that Israeli practices were “no less horrific” than terror attacks, Bayefsky said, “exactly the orientation that will be encouraged and welcomed by the UN’s ‘human rights’ establishment.”

However, two years after his ICJ speech, in 2006, al-Hussein drew praise from pro-Israel human rights advocates, and even from a top Israeli diplomat, for a statement he made in a Emergency Special Session at the UN General Assembly about the barrier. At the time Jordan’s ambassador to the UN, he reiterated Amman’s opposition to the barrier and condemned the “occupation,” but also criticized Holocaust denial and called on delegates to reflect on the harm Arabs cause Israeli civilians.

“He asked the Assembly to consider the wrongs being done by Israel to Palestinian people and other Arab populations — its enforced occupation now stretching on some 40 years now — as well as the wrongs being done by Arab groups to civilians in Israel,” according to an official UN report on the session. “He also expressed concern that many in the Arab world and beyond continued to deny or downplay the Holocaust, an event of immense pain that had caused so much suffering to the Jewish people, Roma and others.”

The Jordanian prince concluded his speech by saying that peace would only come “when justice eclipsed political expediency for all the people of the region” — a statement echoing Israel’s core message to the UN for decades, observers said at the time.

Speaking right after al-Hussein, Israel’s ambassador to the UN at the time, Dan Gillerman, praised his Jordanian colleague for his statement. Gillerman said “it was not often that an Israeli was in a position to pay tribute to an Arab but the Prince was a voice of reason that drew forth an acknowledgement,” according to the UN report. “The Prince was a ray of light on matters in the region, one that hopefully would shine more frequently in the future.”

UN Watch, a pro-Israel human rights organization based in Geneva, also applauded the Jordanian diplomat’s words. “The UN desperately needs more courageous voices to join Prince Zeid. Only with such voices will UN calls for Middle East peace cease to ring hollow and begin contributing to a constructive, just resolution to the conflict,” the group stated.

(Asked this week about al-Hussein’s appointment as UN high commissioner for human rights, the group’s executive director, Hillel Neuer, said he had no information to offer on this topic, presumably for the same reason the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem declined to comment.)

While al-Hussein received much praise for his 2006 speech, he expressed conciliatory ideas even in his more recent statements. In a 2011 address to the UN Security Council, he suggested the Arab world try to better understand Israelis’ emotions and positions.

“The Israelis will occasionally say to us: Resolving the conflict is less a matter of law than psychology, and given the rhythms and the very real traumas of Jewish historical experience, they are cautious of placing their trust in anybody, let alone, they say, in us, the Arabs,” al-Hussein said. “And perhaps we must concede: we could have done more to better understand this point, done more to develop greater trust by, inter alia, better explaining the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative to the Israeli public.”

While the prince reiterated Jordan’s “deep opposition” and “strong condemnation” to Israeli settlement building, he asserted that this stance “is not founded on some form of primordial enmity or bigotry toward the Jewish people.”

 

The Human Rights Council in Geneva. (photo credit: UN/Jean-Marc Ferré)
 

In about two months, when al-Hussein officially assumes the position of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, he will oversee a staff of about 1,100. Headquartered in Geneva, his office will have branches in 65 countries around the world.

Al-Hussein, who has a PhD from Cambridge University, has twice been Jordanian ambassador at the UN and is also the Hashemite kingdom’s former ambassador to the US. He is steeped in peacekeeping and international justice, and played a central role in the establishment of the International Criminal Court. For more than two years, he chaired complex negotiations on the elements of individual offenses under the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Currently, he represents Jordan on the UN Security Council, where Amman has a two-year term.

Israel’s relations to the UN Human Rights Council, and to outgoing High Commissioner Pillay, have long been tense. In March 2012, Jerusalem cut off all relations with the body after it announced the establishment of a fact-finding mission into Israel’s settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, a decision that was condemned by the government. A few months later, the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem slammed Pillay for failing to condemn Palestinian rocket attacks on Israeli civilians.

In the winter of 2013, Israel rejoined the UNHRC after Western member states promised to admit the country into the Western European and Others Group (WEOG), which significantly increases Jerusalem’s ability to advance its interests at the body. In addition, the WEOG states agreed not to participate in discussions over the council’s notorious Agenda item 7 (“the human rights situation in Palestine and other occupied Arab territories”) for two years.

Since 2007, Israel has been the only country whose alleged human rights abuses are discussed in the framework of a single permanent item on the council’s agenda.

AFP contributed to this report.

Liberman urges ‘regional agreement’ with moderate Arabs

June 26, 2014

Liberman urges ‘regional agreement’ with moderate Arabs

Current Mideast situation makes separate peace deal with Palestinians impossible, foreign minister tells John Kerry

By Raphael Ahren June 26, 2014, 4:06 pm

via Liberman urges ‘regional agreement’ with moderate Arabs | The Times of Israel.

 

John Kerry, left, and Avigdor Liberman in Paris Thursday, June 26, 2014. (photo credit: Erez Lichtenfeld)
 

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman called on Thursday for a “new political structure in the Middle East” that would entail a coalition of Israel and the moderate Arab states uniting to face the common threat of Islamist extremism.

Current circumstances in the Middle East make a separate peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians impossible, Liberman told US Secretary of State John Kerry during a meeting in Paris. Rather, “we must reach an overall regional agreement,” Liberman said. “Israel’s longstanding conflict is not only with the Palestinians but with the Arab world of which the Palestinians are a part. Therefore, we must reach an agreement that will include the moderate Arab states, the Palestinians and the Israeli Arabs.”

This is the first time that “a strategic consensus of interests has been created between the moderate elements in the Arab world and Israel,” the foreign minister said, “as both must contend with the Iranian threats, worldwide jihad and al-Qaeda, as well as the overflow of the conflict in Syria and Iraq to neighboring states.”

The Arab Peace Initiative, launched in 2002 by Saudi Arabia and since adopted by the entire Arab and Muslim world, offers “full diplomatic and normal relations” with Israel in exchange for a “comprehensive peace agreement” with the Palestinians. Liberman is now trying to turn this offer around: first a comprehensive agreement with the wider Arab world, followed by peace deal with the Palestinians later on.

The conditions prevailing in the region today have created the basis for the “creation of a new political structure in the Middle East,” Liberman said, according to a statement released by his office. Any kind of peace agreement must “include the Arab states and Israeli Arabs,” he insisted, referring to his controversial plan to redraw Israel’s borders in order to annex Israeli settlements and leave major Arab population centers on the Palestinian side of the border.

The Israeli minister also spoke about the current security situation in Iraq. The country is “dissolving before our eyes,” he said, adding that the establishment of an independent Kurdish state is “probably inevitable.” The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and other extremists factions will try to undermine the stability of the entire Gulf area, Liberman said, “and Israel can provide support and assistance to the moderate Arab states against the extremists of the Arab world.”

He also thanked Kerry for Washington’s “firm position” regarding the gravity of the kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers earlier this month, and told him that the teens’ parents wished to meet with him.

In Paris, Liberman was also set to meet with his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius.

New Palestinian Poll Shows Hardline Views, But Some Pragmatism Too

June 26, 2014

New Palestinian Poll Shows Hardline Views, But Some Pragmatism TooDavid PollockJune 25, 2014

via New Palestinian Poll Shows Hardline Views, But Some Pragmatism Too – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

 

New survey results show that violence is not a popular option among Palestinians and that Hamas is not benefiting from the current troubles, giving U.S. policymakers some breathing room to concentrate on more urgent crises in Iraq and Syria while backing practical steps to cool tensions.

A reliable new West Bank/Gaza public opinion survey conducted on June 15-17 — the only such poll since the current kidnapping crisis began — shows that Palestinian popular attitudes have hardened considerably on long-term issues of peace with Israel. Commissioned by The Washington Institute and conducted by a leading Palestinian pollster, the poll comprised face-to-face interviews with a standard random geographic probability sample of 1,200 adult Palestinians, yielding results with a 3% statistical margin of error. The responses indicate that fewer than 30% of Palestinians now support a “two-state solution”: a West Bank/Gaza Palestinian state in lasting peace with Israel. At the same time, some surprising signs of short-term pragmatism emerged — especially, and even more surprisingly, in Gaza.

Download a slideshow of poll data (PDF)

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2924/14503134701_9184a57080_z.jpg

 

TWO-STATE SOLUTION SUDDENLY A MINORITY POSITION

Regarding the longer-term, fundamental issue of a two-state solution, Palestinian public opinion has clearly taken a maximalist turn. Other recent polls, even after the collapse of the latest peace talks, showed a majority or plurality still favoring the goal of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, alongside Israel (though the numbers were gradually declining). But now, a clear majority (60% overall, including 55% in the West Bank and 68% in Gaza) say that the five-year goal “should be to work toward reclaiming all of historic Palestine, from the river to the sea.”

On this key question, just 31% of West Bankers and 22% of Gazans would opt instead “to end the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza to achieve a two-state solution.” And even fewer, contrary to other recent findings, pick a “one-state solution,” in which “Arabs and Jews will have equal rights in one country, from the river to the sea.” That is the preferred option of a mere 11% in the West Bank and 8% in Gaza.

This pattern is confirmed by other questions in the survey. For example, just one-third said that a two-state solution “should be the end of the conflict.” Nearly two-thirds said “resistance should continue until all of historic Palestine is liberated.” And only a third said that “it might be necessary to give up some of our claims so that our people and our children can have a better life.

Similarly, only a third said that a two-state solution would be their leadership’s final goal. Instead, almost two-thirds said it would be “part of a ‘program of stages,’ to liberate all of historic Palestine later.” This remarkable finding helps explain how a plurality or more of Palestinians can support President Mahmoud Abbas and reject a two-state solution at the same time.

BUT THE PUBLIC WANTS “POPULAR RESISTANCE,” NOT VIOLENCE

Despite continuing tensions over the June 12 kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank and Israel’s resulting intensive searches and arrests, the Palestinian public is not turning toward large-scale violence. Rather, on tactical questions of relations with Israel, respondents broadly supported a nonviolent approach. The survey did not ask specifically about the latest kidnapping, which does appear fairly popular among Palestinians judging from traditional and social media content and anecdotal evidence.

In this survey, when asked whether Hamas “should maintain a ceasefire with Israel in both Gaza and the West Bank,” a majority (56%) of West Bank respondents and a remarkable 70% of Gazans said yes. Similarly, asked if Hamas should accept Abbas’s position that the new unity government renounce violence against Israel, West Bankers were evenly divided, but a majority (57%) of Gazans answered in the affirmative.

Nevertheless, “popular resistance against the occupation” — such as demonstrations, strikes, marches, mass refusals to cooperate with Israel, and the like — was seen as having a positive impact by most respondents in both territories: 62% in the West Bank and 73% in Gaza. And in the week since the survey was completed, Israel’s shooting of several Palestinians and arrest of hundreds more in the course of searching for the kidnap victims may be turning the Palestinian public in a more actively hostile direction.

Both the kidnapping and a Palestinian hunger strike in Israeli jails have also maintained public attention on the prisoner issue. Asked what Israel could do “to convince Palestinians that it really wants peace,” a large plurality picked “release more Palestinian prisoners.” That option far outranked the others, each in the 15-20% range: “share Jerusalem as a joint capital,” “stop building in settlements beyond the security barrier,” or “grant Palestinians greater freedom of movement and crack down on settler attacks.”

HAMAS IS NOT GAINING POLITICAL GROUND FROM THE CRISIS

Most striking, and contrary to common misperception, Hamas is not gaining politically from the kidnapping. Asked who should be the president of Palestine in the next two years, a solid plurality in both the West Bank and Gaza named Abbas (30%) or other Fatah-affiliated leaders: Marwan Barghouti (12%), Muhammad Dahlan (10%), Rami Hamdallah (6%), Mustafa Barghouti (4%), Salam Fayyad (2%), or Mahmoud al-Aloul (1%). These findings strongly suggest that the Palestinian public as a whole has little or no desire to carry out any threats to “dissolve” the Palestinian Authority.

In stark contrast, Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal rated a combined total of just 9% support in the West Bank and 15% in Gaza. Another intriguing finding is that Dahlan has significant popular support among Gazans, at 20%. Also notable is that not one of the other old-guard Fatah figures, such as Abu Ala, Nabil Shaath, or Jibril Rajoub, attracted even 1% support in either the West Bank or Gaza.

MAJORITY WANT ISRAEL TO OFFER JOB OPPORTUNITIES

Some additional and unexpected signs of short-term pragmatism showed up concerning bread-and-butter issues. Over 80% said they would “definitely” or “probably” want Israel to allow more Palestinians to work there. Around half said they would personally take “a good, high-paying job” inside Israel.

Moreover, despite narrow majority support for boycotting Israel, a larger majority said they would also like Israeli firms to offer more jobs inside the West Bank and Gaza. Nearly half said they would take such a position if available. This kind of pragmatism was particularly pronounced among the younger generation of adult Palestinians, those in the 18-to-35-year-old cohort. In a similar vein, among West Bankers in that group, more than three-quarters said they would like a new north-south highway bypassing Israeli checkpoints around Jerusalem. Among older West Bankers, that figure was somewhat lower, at around two-thirds.

DECRYING ISRAELI PRESSURE, BUT ALSO LOCAL CRIME AND CORRUPTION

As Israel continues its search for the kidnap victims, Palestinian respondents voiced widespread concern about Israeli behavior in the territories — but also about unrelated Palestinian behavior. In the West Bank, three-quarters see a “significant problem” with “threats and intimidation from Israeli soldiers and border guards,” and with “delays and restrictions at checkpoints.” Somewhat fewer West Bankers, but still a majority (63%), see “threats and intimidation from Jewish settlers” as a significant problem. These figures were all a bit lower in Gaza, where Israel’s presence on the ground is much less intrusive.

Yet putting those numbers in perspective is the widespread negative perception of some Palestinian behavior. Among West Bankers, 72% view “corruption by Palestinian government officials” as a major problem; among Gazans, the proportion is 66%. Similarly, 77% of West Bankers and 71% of Gazans see local crime as a significant problem.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

These counterintuitive findings — demonstrating that violence is not a popular option among Palestinians, and that Hamas is not benefiting from current troubles — should give U.S. policymakers some needed breathing space to let the dust settle in this arena while concentrating on more urgent crises in Iraq and Syria. Indeed, the unexpected combination of short-term Palestinian popular pragmatism and long-term maximalism revealed by this survey suggests that U.S. policy should seriously consider abandoning all hope of a near-term, permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. In its place, Washington should focus on immediate steps to lower tensions, improve practical conditions, and perhaps set the stage for more moderate attitudes and more fruitful diplomatic discussions at some later date.

David Pollock is the Kaufman Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of Fikra Forum.