WarSclerotic

Israel Air Force’s Firepower Continues to Build, Washington Free Beacon, Abraham Rabinovich, June 1, 2014

The use of precision munitions and upgraded intelligence, based in part on satellites, accounts in good part for the increase in the IAF’s effective firepower, Eshel said. The air force could carry out thousands of accurate strikes in a single day, he said. “I believe our capabilities are second only to those of the United States.”

By the end of this year, the air force will be able accomplish in 24 hours what it took three days to accomplish in the war with Hezbollah eight years ago, Eshel said.

An Israeli Air Force T-6 Texan II / AP

JERUSALEM—The firepower of the Israel Air Force (IAF) will be four times greater by year’s end than it was two years ago, according to its commander, Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, enabling Israel to bring another round of fighting with Hezbollah to a swift end.

“We can destroy [Hezbollah’s] military capabilities and the infrastructure that supports its activities on a scale that would take decades to rebuild,” he told a conference on national security, “an unimaginable scale”.

The vast number of rockets in the hands of the Lebanese militia—reportedly as many as 100,000—makes it imperative for Israel to shorten the next round of fighting. Hezbollah can only fire a limited number of rockets each day. In the three-week war with Israel in 2006 it fired 4,000 rockets.

Eshel acknowledged that Hezbollah now has precision rocketry capable of hitting Israel’s northernmost air force base and to interfere with operations. However, he said, it would not diminish the IAF’s offensive capabilities, which can be projected from other bases as well. The air force commander warned that Israel’s anti-rocket defense systems, like Iron Dome, while effective, were not hermetic. In a war with Hezbollah, Israel would be able to protect “its national resources and urban areas,” he said, but not all of its civilians. In the 2006 conflict, 40 civilians were killed by rockets.

The use of precision munitions and upgraded intelligence, based in part on satellites, accounts in good part for the increase in the IAF’s effective firepower, Eshel said. The air force could carry out thousands of accurate strikes in a single day, he said. “I believe our capabilities are second only to those of the United States.”

By the end of this year, the air force will be able accomplish in 24 hours what it took three days to accomplish in the war with Hezbollah eight years ago, Eshel said.

While Eshel said that Israel would make efforts to avoid civilian casualties in Lebanon, his warning that attacks would be directed at infrastructure supporting Hezbollah appears to refer to roads and other public targets, perhaps including Beirut Airport, through which Iran sends weaponry to Hezbollah. He said that Hezbollah’s positioning of weapons in civilian areas would not exempt the rockets and command centers located there from attack.

Former IDF Chief of Staff: “Iranian Threat is No Longer A Knife to the Throat”At a “Tarbut” function, former IDF Chief of Staff, Dan Halutz, claimed that the Iranian threat is no longer what is was, “a mediocre agreement with the Iranians is better than a successful war,” added Halutz. Government Minister, Yuval Steinitz, accused defense chiefs of “seeking to manipulate the budget”

Israel News – Former IDF Chief of Staff: “Iranian Threat is No Longer A Knife to the Throat” – JerusalemOnline.

May 31, 2014, 05:49PM | Jacob Northbrook

At the same event, Steinitz claimed that heads of the defense apparatus are responsible for exercises aimed at influencing the national budget. He claimed that “Defense chiefs are engaging in exercises which are meant to influence the debate on the national budget.”

According to Steinitz, the defense community is manipulating public opinion. “it is not acceptable that such a thing will take place in a democratic society,” he continued and emphasized that despite the budget crisis, “the IDF cannot intervene in governmental decisions.”

Steinitz further denied recent “Newsweek” reports, according to which Israel recorded discussions between then President Clinton and Syrian President, Hafez Al-Assad, during the 1999 peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. “I can say unequivocally, that Israel does not spy on the United States – period. The United States does not take these reports seriously,” added Steinitz.

The Iranian threat, no longer a threat? So claimed former IDF Chief of Staff, Dan Halutz, at a cultural event for theatre performances in Beer Sheva.

During the function, Halutz supported the position which holds that Israel must be independently responsible for its own future, and that the Iranians do pose an existential threat, however he added that “we must only make such comments, when a knife is to our throats – now (commenting on the Iranian threat), this is not the case.” According to Halutz, a mediocre agreement is better than a successful war against the Iranians. “I am pleased to see a reduction in belligerency,” offered Halutz.

Steinitz: “Heads of Defense Apparatus manipulating the public”

At the same event, Steinitz claimed that heads of the defense apparatus are responsible for exercises aimed at influencing the national budget. He claimed that “Defense chiefs are engaging in exercises which are meant to influence the debate on the national budget.”

According to Steinitz, the defense community is manipulating public opinion. “it is not acceptable that such a thing will take place in a democratic society,” he continued and emphasized that despite the budget crisis, “the IDF cannot intervene in governmental decisions.”

Steinitz further denied recent “Newsweek” reports, according to which Israel recorded discussions between then President Clinton and Syrian President, Hafez Al-Assad, during the 1999 peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. “I can say unequivocally, that Israel does not spy on the United States – period. The United States does not take these reports seriously,” added Steinitz.

REPORT: Kerry Will Meet with Abu Mazen in JordanThe US Secretary of State refuses to give up. A Jordanian newspaper reported that Kerry will meet with Abu Mazen on Wednesday in Amman, Jordan to discuss the negotiations with Israel and the unity government with Hamas. If results will be achieved, Kerry will prepare to come to Israel.

Israel News – REPORT: Kerry Will Meet with Abu Mazen in Jordan – JerusalemOnline.

Jun 01, 2014, 12:47PM | Rachel Avraham

The Jordanian newspaper Al Arab Al Yom reported this morning from a senior level source in the Jordanian government that US Secretary of State John Kerry will come to Amman on Wednesday.  He will discuss with Abu Mazen the negotiations with Israel, the reconciliation with Hamas, and the establishment of a fresh Palestinian government.

Home News Diplomacy and DefenseReport: Israel to deploy nuclear-armed submarines off Iran coastSunday Times quotes IDF official saying the 3 German-made long range submarines will gather intelligence, act as deterrent and potentially land Mossad agents.

Report: Israel to deploy nuclear-armed submarines off Iran coast Israel News | Haaretz.

By Haaretz Service | May 30, 2010 | 10:54 AM

Israel is to deploy three submarines equipped with nuclear cruise missiles in the Persian Gulf, the Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

According to the Times report, one submarine had been sent over Israeli fears that ballistic missiles developed by Iran, and in the possession of Syria and Hezbollah, could be used to hit strategic sites within Israel, such as air bases and missile launchers.

Dolphin, Tekuma, and Leviathan, all German-made Dolphin class submarines of the 7th navy Flotilla, have been reported as frequenting the Gulf in the past, however, according to the Sunday Times report, this new deployment is meant to ensure a permanent naval presence near the Iranian coastline.

A flotilla officer told the Times that the deployed submarines were meant to act as a deterrent, gather intelligence and potentially to land Mossad agents.

“We’re a solid base for collecting sensitive information, as we can stay for a long time in one place,” the officer said.

The flotilla’s commander, identified only as “Colonel O,” was quoted by the Times as saying that the submarine force was “an underwater assault force. We’re operating deep and far, very far, from our borders.”

The submarines could be used if Iran continues its program to produce a nuclear bomb. “The 1,500km range of the submarines’ cruise missiles can reach any target in Iran,” a navy officer told the Times.

Apparently responding to the reported Israeli activity, an Iranian admiral told the Times: “Anyone who wishes to do an evil act in the Persian Gulf will receive a forceful response from us.”

Last July, defense sources reported that an Israeli submarine had sailed the Suez Canal to the Red Sea last month, describing the unusual maneuver as a show of strategic reach in the face of Iran.

Israel has long kept its three Dolphin-class submarines, which are widely assumed to carry nuclear missiles, away from Suez so as not to expose them to the gaze of Egyptian harbormasters.

Netanyahu and Putin to get direct and secure hotline – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Move comes as Russia seeks new allies in wake of crisis with West over annexation of Crimea.

Itamar Eichner

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin have upgraded their relationship, with an agreement that the two leaders will be connected by a special hotline between their two bureaus.

The decision, which comes even as ties between Russia and Israel’s major ally the US sink even lower, was announced Friday by Moscow.

“The Russian government has decided to accept the proposal from Russian security service, in conjunction with the Russian Foreign Ministry, to set up a secure line that will allow a direct and encrypted connection between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” the country said in a statement.

The decision means the immediate commencement of negotiations between Russia and Israel to set up the direct line between the two leaders.

Russia has secure telephone lines with leaders in various countries around the world. The first was set up in 1963, between Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and US President John F. Kennedy, in the wake of the Cuban missile crisis. In 1966, the Soviets also launched a similar hotline with France, at the time led by President Charles de Gaulle. Moscow went on to set up further direct lines with Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and South Korea.

Russia expert Alex Tentzer says the move aims to allow Russia and Israel to converse on sensitive issues that impact on both nations without any intervention by the United States. Israeli and American leaders also have a direct line.

“Russia feels very close to the Israeli leadership,” says Tentzer. “The Russians want to speak to Israel without anyone eavesdropping – in particular the US.”

The establishment of the line also has ties to ongoing events in Ukraine, in which Russia came under fierce international criticism for its annexation of Crimea. Israel is one of the few countries that did not condemn the move by Moscow, a decision that in turn was criticized by Washington.

In the wake of the crisis with the West over Ukraine, Russia decided to strengthen its ties to other nations, including China, India and Israel. Jerusalem and Moscow have also drawn closer recently over regional security issues such as Syria and Iran.

Sharp rise in Iran’s foreign trade, Trend, Dalga Khatinoglu, June  1, 2014

(The P5 + 1 peace process appears to be working to Iran’s advantage, as expected. It seems unlikely that it will be possible to restore “effective” sanctions should the negotiations fail. In all likelihood, Iran wins no matter whether the P5 + 1 negotiations “succeed” or “fail.”–  DM)

The latest report of Iran Customs Administration records a significant rise in the exports of items that were put under sanctions by the West, including liquid gas (LPG), petrochemical products, and gas condensates.

Iran Customs Administration’s reports suggest that the country’s non-oil foreign trade has been increased significantly during last two months.

The country’s exports have been reportedly more than its imports in the mentioned period.

Iran’s exports in the mentioned period were around $8.154 billion, which is 30 percent more than the same time span previous year.

The country’s imports also stood at $7.688 billion, which shows a 35-percent increase compared to previous year.

Iran’s fiscal year starts on March 20 and Custom’s report covers a period from March 20 to May 20.

According to the Iran Customs Administration, Tehran’s exports were a little more than $6 billion in the first two months of previous year, which was around 2 percent less than its preceding year. The country’s imports were also $5.7 billion in the first two months of last year, some 33 percent less than its preceding year.

So, Iran’s non-oil trade shows a significant increase even in comparison to the period of time before the international sanctions were imposed on the country in mid-2012.

A boost in exports of sanctioned items

The latest report of Iran Customs Administration records a significant rise in the exports of items that were put under sanctions by the West, including liquid gas (LPG), petrochemical products, and gas condensates.

LPG is a kind of liquid gas which includes propane and butane. Gas condensates are also a kind of light and expensive oil, extracted for gas fields.

The west countries eased some sanctions imposed on Iran in November 2013 due to interim nuclear accord.

Based on the report, exports of liquefied propane and liquefied butane amounted to $375 million and $247 million in the last two months, respectively.

Last year, exports of liquefied propane and liquefied butane stood at $137 million and $144 million, respectively. In other words, Iran’s LPG exports increased by 2.2 times year-to-year.

The report also indicates that Iran exported $3.03 billion worth of gas condensates and $1.991 billion worth of petrochemicals in the first two months of the current year.

According to the Custom’s report, Iran exported $1.239 billion worth of gas condensates and $1.717 billion worth of petrochemicals in the corresponding period last year.

In other words, Iran’s gas condensate exports were increased by 2.4 times. Exports of petrochemicals have also increased to some extent.

Gas condensates and petrochemicals account for half of Iran’s non-oil exports.

Major goods imported

Wheat, vehicles equipped with internal combustion piston engines of 1000-1500cc, oil cake, rice, and unrefined soy oil were the major goods imported, worth $495 million, $263 million, $340 million, $235 million, and $172 million, respectively.

Imports of vehicles equipped with internal combustion piston engines of 1000-1500cc had a considerable 7.5-time rise compared to the 2-month period in the past year. After the six-month interim nuclear agreement in Geneva, sanctions on the Iranian automotive sector were suspended.

Dalga Khatinoglu is specialist on Iran’s energy sector and Iran News Service head in Trend Agency

Does Netanyahu fear Iran enough to save IAF?

Does Netanyahu fear Iran enough to save IAF? – Diplomacy and Defense Israel News | Haaretz.

If PM was serious about Iran, he would have put presidential wheeling and dealing aside and fought the army’s decision to cancel pilot training.

By Amos Harel | Jun. 1, 2014 | 8:50 AM | 3

Two Israel Air Force pilots next to an F-15 fighter jet. Photo by Daniel Bar-On

Last Thursday, the Israel Air Force texted all its squadron commanders and reserve pilots. The message indicated that all planned training flights will be canceled due to budgetary restrictions. A week previously, battalion commanders in the ground forces received similar messages.

The degree of preparedness of ground forces is not an exact science. Despite recommendations that were formulated after the Second Lebanon War in 2006, the Israel Defense Forces has refrained from establishing strict and binding criteria.

Readiness in the air force is a different matter. A reserve pilot who doesn’t train for a few weeks loses his authorization to participate in some missions. If this whole issue is spin that is part of the ongoing struggle over the defense budget – as many argue – then the defense minister, chief of staff and the air force commander are taking a huge gamble.

There is no one who should be more concerned with the air force’s readiness than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for whom the development and planning of a military option against Iran was at the top of his agenda for the last five years.

And what was Netanyahu up to as the air force was informing its pilots that training was canceled? Thanks to political affairs reporters, we now know that Netanyahu was mainly preoccupied with a last-minute effort to promote the candidacy of an 85-year-old Jew, who is not even an Israeli citizen, as the country’s next president.

Only on Wednesday did the Prime Minister’s Office instruct Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Finance Minister Yair Lapid to desist from their public squabbling and to settle the dispute by direct negotiations. The Locker Committee, set up to investigate the defense budget, convened the next day for its first session, rather than a few months earlier. The committee’s work is no longer relevant in view of the defense establishment’s demand for a 2-billion shekel ($575.6 million) increment to its current budget. It’s doubtful whether recommendations will be made in time to affect the 2015 budget, in which Lapid plans to block any increases.

Ya’alon’s campaign to receive an immediate budget boost began in a threat-filled appearance before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. For over three weeks, Netanyahu did not convene even a single meeting of the cabinet – the body that is supposed to discuss the issue. This crisis is also a result of a leadership vacuum, in which the prime minister is both absent and present in the process of decision making, allowing cabinet ministers to attack each other.

Someone who cannot display such equanimity is the chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz. Months away from the end of his term, he appears concerned that all his work is going down the drain. Credit for the quiet enjoyed by Israel’s citizens, despite the turmoil in the Arab world, is due to Gantz as much as it is to Netanyahu. The IDF consistently operates far beyond our borders, without committing errors that could lead to escalation.

A recent meeting of the General Staff desperately searched for further targets for expense cutting, discussing options as varied as canceling vacations and studies for officers to the supply of toilet paper. The army is concerned by recent reports of a sharp decline in the motivation of standing army officers to serve.

Some explanation for how the IDF got into this situation include the sharp rise in pension payments; enormous expenses at the rehabilitation division of the Defense Ministry; great waste in many units; and lack of tight supervision.

Lest the army repeat mistakes made in the Lebanon war, the state gave it an unprecedented period of grace between 2007 and 2013, with ample budgets. A major contributor was the preparations for a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may have hit the mark when he claimed that 11 billion shekels was wasted over two years. Any mention of Iran to Netanyahu resulted in automatic approval of budgets.

At this late stage, there are a few options available. One suggestion is to increase flexibility in retirement, letting officers retire earlier with a leaving bonus instead of an expensive bridging pension. Other suggestions include preparing longer-term budgets and organizational changes in the General Staff, in order to reduce the number of its personnel. Passing some jobs to civilian agencies is another solution being investigated.

Iranian commander says readying launch of air defense system more advanced than Russian S-300 | JPost | Israel News.

By ARIEL BEN SOLOMON

06/01/2014 15:06

US, Israel have long blocked sale of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system to Iran; Iranian commander says the Islamic Republic’s domestic alternative employs advanced technology that “even Americans do not have.”

The deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Brig.-Gen. Hossein Salami announced on Saturday that his country has built a top secret air-defense system, which is more advanced than the Russian s-300.

“An air defense system more advanced than what they didn’t supply to us due to their strategic interests went on display in the IRGC’s recent exhibition,” Salami said in Tehran according to a report by Iran’s Fars news agency.

He said that the air-defense system would not be publicly displayed, but would “remain confidential” for now.

Media reports indicate that Iran has long sought to purchase the S-300 from Russia but has faced pressure from the US and Israel against the sale.

Russian officials told Amos Gilad in 2009, then head of the political-military bureau in the Defense Ministry, that the missiles to Iran would not be delivered for political reasons.

In the end, Russia scrapped the sale in 2010, and in what may have been a quid pro quo, Israel agreed to sell Russia surveillance drones that would narrow its technological military gap with Georgia.

Salami added, according to the report, that its ballistic missiles now enjoy “pinpoint precision capability when fired at mobile targets; this might be impossible in terms of science, but it is true and, in addition to us, only the Russians might possess this technology and even the Americans do not have it.”

“As regards the ground force power, the IRGC stands atop the world, given its hundreds of martyrdom-seeking battalions and hundreds of highly trained combat battalions,” he said.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Iran and the Arab world, Israel Hayom, Elliot Abrams, June 1, 2014

[T]he fear is widespread in the Arab world that any U.S.-Iran nuclear deal will only give Iran greater resources (when sanctions are lifted) and more freedom of maneuver. Nothing U.S. President Barack Obama said in his West Point speech this week will diminish that fear; in fact, the president’s words will likely increase the sense in the Arab world that his interest in an Iran nuclear agreement may lead to a bad deal and to acceptance of other Iranian misconduct as part of the price for an agreement. In fact, in recent months we’ve even heard the argument that Iran and the United States have common interests in Syria and elsewhere (against jihadi groups, for example) and should explore how we can work together in the Middle East.

What are Iran’s goals in the Arab world? Michael Young, the always insightful opinion editor of Beirut’s Daily Star newspaper, wrote this week that Iran has “two sets of contradictory objectives:”

“In some countries where it sees the possibility of controlling the commanding heights of decision-making, the Islamic republic will perpetuate dynamics of unity. Lebanon is a good example.

“However, in countries where political, sectarian and ethnic divisions make this impossible, Iran will exacerbate fragmentation. In that way, it can control chunks of a country, usually the center, while enhancing the marginalization and debilitation of areas not under its authority. Iraq and Syria are good illustrations of this version of creative chaos.

“Whether the Iranian approach has been an effective one is a different question altogether. Certainly, it has given Tehran considerable latitude to be a regional player and obstruct outcomes that might harm its interests. But there is also fundamental instability in a strategy based on exploiting conflict and volatility, denying Iran the permanence it has historically achieved through its creation of lasting institutions.

“Ironically, the United States may help Iran in this regard. If a nuclear deal is reached this year, it could prompt the Obama administration to engage Iran in the resolution of regional issues. This recognition of Iranian power will reinforce those in Tehran who seek a greater say in the Arab world. But if what we have seen until now is anything to go by, it may not necessarily lead to a more settled Middle East.”

Young’s column discusses Iranian strategy in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon further, and is well worth a read. It is a reminder that in the Arab world, the critical Iran issue is not its nuclear program but Iran’s aggression, subversion, and interference in Arab countries’ politics. And the fear is widespread in the Arab world that any U.S.-Iran nuclear deal will only give Iran greater resources (when sanctions are lifted) and more freedom of maneuver. Nothing U.S. President Barack Obama said in his West Point speech this week will diminish that fear; in fact, the president’s words will likely increase the sense in the Arab world that his interest in an Iran nuclear agreement may lead to a bad deal and to acceptance of other Iranian misconduct as part of the price for an agreement. In fact, in recent months we’ve even heard the argument that Iran and the United States have common interests in Syria and elsewhere (against jihadi groups, for example) and should explore how we can work together in the Middle East.

That’s what Young is noting in his final paragraph above, and he is right to warn that down that path lies more Iranian power but no peace for the Middle East.

Netanyahu: Unity government will ‘strengthen terror’Ahead of official declaration of new Fatah-Hamas leadership, PM calls on international community to boycott PA

Netanyahu: Unity government will ‘strengthen terror’ | The Times of Israel.

By Marissa Newman and AP June 1, 2014, 12:22 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday condemned the Fatah-Hamas unity government the day before the slated announcement of its formation, and urged the international community not to recognize the new entity.

“Hamas is a terror organization that calls for the destruction of Israel,” the prime minister said Sunday at the weekly cabinet meeting.

“This [the unity government] will not strengthen peace; [rather] it will strengthen terror,” he said.

Netanyahu appealed to “the responsible officials in the international community not to rush to recognize a Palestinian government that relies on Hamas.”

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said Saturday the formation of a new Palestinian government would be declared Monday, adding that Israel already warned him it would take punitive steps against the new alliance.

Abbas said Saturday that he would respond to any Israeli punitive measures, such as withholding the monthly transfer of some $100 million in taxes and customs Israel collects on behalf of his Palestinian Authority. The funds are vital to keeping the self-rule government afloat.

The long-running Hamas-Fatah rivalry escalated in 2007 when Hamas seized the Gaza Strip from the internationally backed Abbas in 2007. Hamas, which has carried out scores of bombing, shooting and rocket attacks against Israeli civilians, is considered a terror group by Israel and the West.

After the April collapse of US-mediated Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the Palestinian rivals revived reconciliation efforts. Negotiators met repeatedly to agree on a government of technocrats backed by both sides that is to prepare for general elections in 2015. In recent days, there were last-minute disagreements.

“The announcement of the government will be on Monday,” Abbas said during a meeting with several dozen pro-Palestinian activists from France. “The Israelis informed us today that they are going to boycott us immediately after we form the government.”

“They are going to withhold our money,” he said, referring to the monthly transfers. “This is our money, not aid from Israel, and we will not stay silent. They want to punish us because we have an agreement with Hamas, which is part of our people.”

In recent days, there were last-minute disagreements over the cabinet lineup, but Abbas suggested Saturday that the issues were resolved.

Abbas said that “we are going to react to any Israeli action.” He did not elaborate. However, Abbas and his aides have said in the past that they might step up efforts to gain further international recognition of a state of Palestine. The United Nations General Assembly recognized such a state as a non-member observer in 2012.

Palestinian officials have said a state of Palestine is eligible for membership in 63 international organizations, treaties and conventions. Last month, Abbas signed membership requests for 15 conventions, and his aides have said the Palestinians planned to sign up for more in several stages.

Earlier Saturday, Hamas said it will not agree to the continuation of Palestinian security cooperation with Israel once it teams up with Abbas.

A senior Israeli government official said the formation of a unity government “is a great leap backward,” but declined to say whether Israel would take punitive action.

Abbas had been scheduled to announce the formation of the government on Thursday, but was forced to delay it after Hamas reportedly rejected his preferred appointment for foreign minister.

“The government is ready, but there is only one problem, and that is that Fatah and Hamas reject Riyad al-Maliki as foreign minister, something Abbas is insisting on,” a Palestinian official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A source close to Hamas said the Islamist movement wanted the post to be held by Ziyad Abu Amer, one of two deputy premiers currently serving under Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah.

Hamas and the Western-backed PLO, which is dominated by Abbas’s Fatah party, signed a surprise reconciliation agreement on April 23 to end years of bitter and sometime bloody rivalry.

The agreement gave them five weeks to set up a unity government which was to have been announced by May 28.