WarSclerotic

Putin to visit Tehran. King of Morocco invites Iran to “Jerusalem Committee” – with Kerry’s approval.

Iran’s Javad Zarif reports to Vladimir Putin

Tehran’s offensive for establishing itself as the leading Middle East power bar none is in full flight. On his arrival in Moscow Thursday, Jan. 17, Foreign Minister Javad Zerif handed Vladimir Putin an invitation to visit Tehran from President Hassan Rouhani. The Russian president replied: “I hope to visit you in Tehran very soon.” Iran also sent out invitations to Gulf rulers to tour its nuclear reactor at Bushehr,  combined with a round table discussion on regional nuclear cooperation.
This visit would be tantamount to the Arab oil emirs’ recognition of the legitimacy of Iran’s nuclear program. It is likely to come off because the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman are already in favor of rapprochement with Tehran.
A development more directly affecting Israel’s interests is the King of Morocco’s offer to Iran of full membership in the Al Quds (Jerusalem) Committee of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (IOC), with the approval of US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Friday and Saturday (Jan. 17-18), in Marrakesh, the king chaired the Al Quds Committee’s 20th session, its first in ten years, announcing an effort to contribute to John Kerry’s efforts to revive the Middle East peace process. The gathering is attended by the foreign ministers of the committee member states, UN Security Council member states, the UN, EU and the Arab League, as well as Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

debkafile reports that Kerry has been keeping King Mohammad VI in Rabat au fait of the state of play in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, hoping to win the organization’s cooperation on the tough Jerusalem issue. Any US-backed Israeli-Palestinian accords involving Jerusalem, if achieved, would be referred to the Al Quds Committee.
Therefore, by inviting Iran to join, Kerry and the Moroccan king have inserted Tehran into one of the most sensitive decision-making hubs affecting the Middle East peace process.
These pivotal developments flow directly from the events disclosed by debkafile Thursday, Jan. 16:

Thursday, Jan. 16, Iran’s Javad Zarif and Syria’s Walid Moallem flew together to Moscow aboard the same flight and went straight into a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zarif caught the flight in Damascus after a consultation with Syrian President Bashar Assad and a government-building exercise in Beirut. debkafile’s Middle East sources and intelligence sources report that this spurt of diplomatic motion came after Assad gave the nod to the plan Tehran had prepared to put on the table of the Geneva 2 conference, which opens in Switzerland on Jan. 20 for a political solution of the Syrian conflict.  The two foreign ministers came to Moscow to collect Putin’s signature on the Iranian plan.

debkafile has gained access to its four high points:

1. Since the Assad regime and the rebel movement have no hope of coming to terms at this point in the three-year war they have been fighting, a political solution must be sought in stages.
2. The first stage would be agreement on a truce in the fighting. debkafile notes that a ceasefire has existed de facto in many parts of Syria for the last two months.
3. Humanitarian corridors respected by both sides will be opened up for essential American, Russian and European aid in food, medicines and equipment for withstanding the cold winter, to reach the rebel-held zones of Syria, most of which are under army siege.
4. Al Qaeda militias are counted out of any agreements. Therefore, an initiative must be launched for Syrian and rebel forces to collaborate in fighting al Qaeda elements in the areas under their control.
Zarif also planned to show Putin the plan he has drawn up for bringing political stability to Lebanon with Hizballah’s cooperation. It centers on forming a national unity government of 24 ministers – eight for Hizballah and its allies and eight for the opposition bloc, each grouping holding the right to veto ministerial appointments.
The Iranian foreign minister has clearly lost no time in filling the Middle East role of leading Middle East power broker and strongman, just allocated Tehran by Moscow and Washington.

According to prearranged procedure. Iranian officials first hammer out an accord with local rulers, such as Assad, Nasrallah and Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad. They then present it to the Russian leader for endorsement, after which Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov refers the document to President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry.
The Iranian foreign minister set the new arrangement in motion for the first time in Lebanon. Iran’s next exhibition of muscle-flexing as senior Middle East power will be staged on Jan. 20 at Geneva 2.

Iran reminds us: Obama’s deal is a fraud.

Josh Rogin reports: “In an interview with Iranian television, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator says Tehran can resume enriching uranium to 20 percent levels within one day if it so desires. Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, said this week that if Iran decides to resume enriching uranium to levels prohibited by the new nuclear deal, it could begin to do so in one day’s time.” There are several take-aways from this.

President Obama speaks by phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (Pete Souza for the White House via Agence France-Press)

First, Iran can’t resist humiliating the president and boasting that it has gotten the better of President Obama. In making a deal that lifts sanctions and provides for ephemeral limits on nuclear activities, Obama has proven Iranian President Hassan Rohani right once again: The United States can be lulled into a sweetheart deal.

I’ve long maintained that what the administration fears more than the conditional sanctions that would go into effect if Iran cheats or doesn’t reach a final deal is the outline of what is an acceptable final deal. So long as it is clear and generally accepted what the bare-minimum deal can be, Obama is prevented from making a final deal that is incomplete or reversible — one, in other words, that allows Iran to keep its enrichment capability and centrifuges. Discrediting in advance the Obama end-game in a sense has already occurred. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Dems have already let it be known that a “keep your enrichment” deal will be unacceptable and hence trigger either U.S. sanctions (or possibly Israeli action).

Moreover, we see now how Obama’s policy has morphed into containment. He’ll be happy to let Iran keep all it needs to reignite its nuclear capability in a day or a week, lift sanctions and declare success. That leaves Iran with its nuclear capability. How would we “contain” Iran at that point? We aren’t containing Iran now. In fact, it is using the threat of failures to rub our noses in the deal and heighten its support for Hamas, make a show of solidarity with terrorists and bolster Iran. We do nothing because Obama is afraid to “blow the deal.” Imagine then how tentative he will be when there is “peace in our time” with an Iranian regime only a screw-turn away from a nuclear bomb.

Pressure may finally get to the Senate majority leader for a vote. The six months may run with no deal in Geneva. Either way, a sanctions vote becomes unavoidable. But then again the Dems could lose the Senate; then there is no more stalling and no flunky like Harry Reid to gum up the works on sanctions. As with immigration reform and so many other things, if the Dems see a thumping coming up in November they might just get reasonable; 2014 could be the last year of the Obama presidency in which Congress can run interference for him.

White House: World security hinges on success of Iran nuclear deal | JPost | Israel News.

By MICHAEL WILNER

01/17/2014 02:15

Obama administration outlines Geneva technical agreement between world powers, Islamic Republic; calls for continued diplomatic attempts to resolve Tehran’s nuclear issue.

WASHINGTON — “For the sake of our national security and the peace and security of the world,” diplomacy with Iran must be given a chance to succeed, the White House charged on Thursday, issuing a detailed breakdown of the technical nuclear agreement reached in Geneva this week between Iran and world powers.

The Joint Plan of Action— the official name for the interim nuclear deal reached in Geneva in November— will freeze Iran’s enrichment of uranium to levels beyond any civilian energy use, and will halt progress on its production of a plutonium facility in Arak, in exchange for $6-7 billion in sanctions relief.

The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency will be “solely responsible for verifying and confirming all nuclear-related measures,” the White House said, adding that world powers and Iran would establish a joint commission that ensures IAEA is sufficiently enforcing and abiding by the Joint Plan of Action.

Iran will begin diluting half of its uranium stockpile already enriched to 20 percent on January 20, the administration announced, a condition that will be fully completed within the six-month timeframe.

Under the agreement, Iran is allowed to continue centrifuge production to replace damaged machines in Natanz and Fordow, where limited uranium enrichment will continue at low levels.

Iran is also allowed to continue research into advanced centrifuge technology, though the White House noted in the Thursday document that Iran cannot widen its research scope “beyond its current enrichment R&D practices.”

Natanz and Fordow, two of Iran’s largest nuclear plants, will be subject to daily IAEA inspector access.

“The IAEA and Iran are working to update procedures, which will permit IAEA inspectors to review surveillance information on a daily basis to shorten detection time for any Iranian non-compliance,” the White House said.

In exchange, the P5+1— the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany— will release eight installments of $450-550 million in restricted Iranians funds over the six-month period. Iran will have access to the remaining funds, $4.2 billion, on the very last day before the agreement expires.

The US does not yet have a plan with its international partners on how to proceed with talks toward a comprehensive agreement, the outline suggested, noting that talks between P5 and EU partners would focus on coordinating a joint approach.

“The United States will determine with our P5+1 partners our approach to the comprehensive solution,” the White House added. “Discussions with Iran will follow that coordination process.”

Reacting to the published outline, Senator Mark Kirk expressed doubt that all details had been made available in comments to The Jerusalem Post.

“The Iran deal shouldn’t be kept secret from the American people,” Kirk said. “If the White House is proud of the deal, it should be able to withstand public scrutiny in its entirety.”