WarSclerotic

Ya’alon: Israel’s relations with US are excellent – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( He actually said this with a straight face? – JW )

Defense minister says relations with Washington did not suffer even in wake of differences over Iran nuclear agreement

Maor Buchnik

Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon on Tuesday described reported fears that Israel has lost its power to influence the United States in regards to the Iranian nuclear program as “exaggerated.”

“The relations between us are excellent and are based on common values and interests,” he said. “Even between such friends there can be differences.”

During a tour of the Syrian border in the Golan Heights, Ya’alon added that “there was certainly disagreement between ourselves and the US administration on the Iranian issue and we voiced our opinion.

“Our relations with the US did not suffer, the channels are open including the one between the president and the prime minister. We consider the move in Geneva as a historic mistake. We thought the agreement is problematic and that is why we made our voice be heard.”

Commenting on mortar fire directed the IDF in the Golan on Monday he said, “As long as they fire among themselves it’s alright. We don’t see the situation stabilizing in the near future. We are here to safeguard our interests.”

Discussing the treatment Israel provides to wounded Syrians, he explained that “the Syrian villages near the fence are besieged. They (the wounded) have no access anywhere else. We cannot sit by and see the humanitarian crisis on the other side – not as far as the wounded are concerned and not in regards to winter preparedness.”

Rider on the Storm – By Danny Danon | Foreign Policy.

How Israel won the Arab Spring, and why a dangerous new instability threatens the entire region’s geopolitical landscape.

BY DANNY DANON | NOVEMBER 27, 2013

Less than two years ago, much of the world believed that a new dawn of hope was cracking in the Middle East. The voice of the people, the aspirations of youth and democracy were marching together to cast out old dictatorships. Many naively believed that freedom was about to triumph over entrenched authoritarianism.

It is abundantly clear today that such earnest hopes were uniformly and regrettably misplaced. There is no better reminder of this than the dangerous agreement signed in Geneva by Iran and the world powers that comprise the P5+1 on Nov. 23. As we approach 2014, the Middle East is now on the brink of a new nuclear arms race between the region’s Shiite and Sunni forces. The voices of liberal democracy, meanwhile, have been quashed by screaming jet fighters, deadly poison gas, and menacing religious fratricide.

Israelis believe that the age of prophecy is long gone. Yet one need not aspire to be a prophet to draw one remarkable insight that is as unlikely as the Arab Spring itself: Israel is strategically stronger today than it was before this season of upheaval commenced. At the same time, the instability surrounding us serves as a warning that we should not rush into artificially induced and potentially dangerous diplomatic processes in an attempt to alter the existing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.

Now is the time to sit tight, closely observe, and analyze unfolding events — all the while remaining vigilantly on guard against new and unforeseen dangers to the Jewish state. We need to look no farther than to Israel’s actual borders — in every direction — for this point to be made.

Let’s start with Egypt, the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The Egyptian military’s rejection of Muslim Brotherhood control has been a near-lethal blow to the Islamist organization’s stolid allies in Gaza, Hamas. The current Egyptian government is doing what its predecessor did not: locating and effectively destroying as many as 150 smuggling tunnels from the Sinai Peninsula into Gaza — tunnels that were used to transport weapons and contraband — and moving to end radical Muslim control of large chunks of Gaza. As a result, the boundary between Gaza and Egypt is no longer a leaking sieve for unchecked terrorist travels.

Even countries that are technically at war with Israel recognize how the balance of power is shifting in the region. Recent news reports have detailed how Saudi Arabia is furious about the Obama administration’s latest actions in the Middle East — especially the recent agreement with Iran — leading to a rapprochement of sorts with Israel. Saudi Arabia now believes that tension between Sunni and Shiite powers has, to a degree, supplanted regional enmity that has historically been directed at Israel.

Although one won’t read it in the Saudi press anytime soon, millions of people in the Gulf — supported by many minorities including Kurds, Christians, Druse, Sufis, and Baluchis, among others — are quietly banking on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise not to allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. This is especially true in light of the recent nuclear accord with Iran.

Even the Syrian crisis has improved Israel’s strategic position in the region. While we pray for a speedy and peaceful end to the bloodshed, Israel is fully committed to remaining outside the civil war. This is not our fight. We will continue, however, to act to ensure that “game changing” weapons do not fall in to the hands of anyone who threatens the state of Israel. One result of the conflict is indisputable: a weakened President Bashar al-Assad and the disruption of the line of strategic hegemony running directly from Iran through Syria to Lebanon is a boon to Israeli security. That disruption seems beyond reversal, no matter what might occur in the future.

Finally, the situation in Lebanon has shifted as well. The paramilitary group Hezbollah has dispatched many of its fighters to Syria, bogging down men and logistics while at the same time reigniting strong opposition from other Lebanese who want no part in Syria’s mayhem. While there is danger that Hezbollah is using the Syrian civil war to train for future battle against Israel, it is even more significant that the so-called Party of God has been attacked with bombs in Lebanon, seen its supply line from Teheran constricted, and had weapons shipments mysteriously destroyed on the ground. Even the European Union has belatedly labeled it the terrorist organization it is.

The Arab Spring has seen the threat posed by all of Israel’s traditional, state-based foes either fully eliminated or significantly diminished. On the one hand, this means that, in the short-term at least, citizens of Israel can sleep more soundly at night. On the other hand, the challenge remains to identify the next danger on the horizon in the Middle East. As I like to remind my colleagues, our region is extremely fluid. When I was a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, we held a meeting the day before Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign. Not a single expert in the room predicted that this monumental shift was going to take place in 24 hours.

We must closely observe the volatile situation in the Middle East with this in mind. Israel might be in a better strategic position to face the historical challenges that undoubtedly face us in the coming years, but events can be hard to predict in this part of the world. As a result, we must remain ever-vigilant to protect the people of Israel.

Kerry: With global anti-Semitism on the rise, Israel’s voice must be heard everywhere | JPost | Israel News.

12/03/2013 06:46

US secretary of state welcomes Israel’s “overdue” invitation to regional group at UN Human Rights Council: “This is a particularly welcome development as we work to end anti-Israel bias in the UN system.”

US Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday welcomed Israel’s inclusion into the United Nation’s Western Eastern and Others Group in Geneva, a move that grants it national rights at the UN’s Human Rights Council.

“At a time when the scourge of global anti-Semitism is on the rise, it is more important than ever for Israel to have a strong voice that can be heard everywhere,” Kerry said.

The secretary, who is due to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, issued his statement hours after the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem received a formal invitation to join WEOG.

Kerry welcomed Israel’s restored ties with the UN Human Rights council.

Kerry’s comments came in a statement welcoming Israel into the Western European and Others Group of nations in Geneva Monday- a move that grants it national rights at the Human Rights Council.

Israel cut ties with the UNHRC in March 2012 to protest what it said was anti-Israel bias by that body, which had censured it more than any other country.

Israel is expected to formally re-establish full ties with the Human Rights Council now that it has received the invitation to the Western European and Others Group in Geneva.

All 193 United Nations member states are divided into regional groupings in New York and Geneva, through which elections are held for various UN organizations and bodies.

Arab nations barred Israel from participating in the Asian group, which it geographically falls into.

Israel was accepted instead into the WEOG group in New York, but those same countries did not allow Israel to join their regional group in Geneva.

Israel made acceptance to WEOG in Geneva one of two conditions for ending its boycott of the UNHRC.

“Israeli membership in the WEOG in Geneva is overdue, and we welcome the decision to invite Israel to join beginning January 1, 2014,” Kerry stated.

“This is a particularly welcome development as we work to end anti-Israel bias in the UN system. We will continue to speak out for our close ally, Israel, and we will continue to support efforts to normalize Israel’s treatment across the UN system as a full and equal member of the community of nations,” he added.

Aharon Leshno Yaar, the Foreign Ministry deputy director general for UN and International Organizations, said that “Israel is now a full member of the regional group in the Human Rights Council and that means we can play a bigger role in the human rights activities in Geneva.”

Israel had agreed in October to participate in the UNHRC’s Universal Period Review of its human rights record, but said it was waiting for an invitation from WEOG before it would formally re-establish ties.

Monday’s invitation allows it to return to the UNHRC. Yaar explained that as WEOG members Israel can “elect and be elected to positions in the UNHRC. It means that Israel will be able to participate in related activities such as meetings with senior UN officials. Invitations to such meetings goes through the [regional] groups,” Yaar said.

“The invitation to WEOG was the end of many months of serious diplomatic effort by the foreign ministry and our missions in friendly countries; especially in European countries, in Canada and the US,” Yaar said.

“The UNHRC without Israel is a flawed institution. Now with Israel fully engaged it will have greater credibility. Israel will also enjoy the recognition of being a full member of the community of nations,” Yaar said.

In agreeing to reengage with the UNHRC, Israel accepted a compromise on its second demand, the elimination of “Agenda Item seven”.

This is a standing item, under which Israeli treatment of the Palestinians is debated at every UNHRC session. No other country, but Israel, is automatically scheduled into the UNHRC agenda.

Yaar said that the EU and other friends of Israel have decided “to limit significantly their involvement in discussions under ‘Agenda Item seven’.”

Israelis distrust Iran deal but overwhelmingly value alliance with US | The Times of Israel.

( This is utterly predictable.  Everyone who can think is skeptical about IranScam.  But as Glick’s last piece so convincingly showed, the connection between the people of Israel and the US will always be there. – JW )

 Latest ‘Peace Index’ poll shows skepticism over US-brokered interim nuclear deal, but huge majority who say US is Israel’s most dependable, important ally

Benjamin Netanyahu speaking to Barack Obama at the Prime Minister’s Residence in Jerusalem in March. (photo credit: Pete Souza/Official White House)

A huge majority of Israelis believe the US-brokered nuclear deal between Western powers and Iran, which has been at the crux of an ongoing diplomatic spat between Israel and the US, will fail to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

At the same time, a huge majority of Israelis from across the political spectrum say the US is Israel’s most dependable and important ally.

The findings come from the latest Tel Aviv University-Israel Democracy Institute Peace Index, a monthly survey of Israeli public opinion.

Fully 77% of Israelis say the nuclear agreement between Western powers and Iran will not end the Islamic Republic’s drive for nuclear weapons. Just 18% said they think it will.

At the same time, Israelis overwhelmingly welcome the alliance with the US.

The survey asked bluntly: “Since 1967 the United States has been considered Israel’s most loyal and important ally. Do you think it still is?”

Israelis overwhelmingly said yes, with 71% saying they are “sure” (29%) or “think” (42%) it is. Just 26% said America is no longer Israel’s best ally.

The figure crossed ethnic lines. Among Jews, 72% said America was Israel’s closest ally, while 64% of Israeli Arabs agreed.

Israelis are also divided on the recent call by Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman for the Jewish state to find other allies to replace the US.

Asked if Israel needs to “find other loyal allies and reduce its dependence on the United States,” 46% of respondents said it does not, while 48% said it does.

But even some Israelis who believe Israel should have additional allies are skeptical Israel could find them. More than two-thirds, or 69%, said it stood only a “moderately low” (33%) or “very low” (36%) chance of doing so.

The result: Most Israelis say the country is at least moderately dependent on US “military, political and economic assistance.”

Almost one-third of Israelis (30%) said it was “totally” dependent, while half (51%) said it was “moderately” dependent. Just 16% said Israel was “almost not” or “not” dependent.

Given the importance of the US alliance, which has been strained by Netanyahu’s open criticism of American policy on Iran, the survey found a surprising result when it asked Israelis to rate Netanyahu’s performance in dealing with the Iran issue.

Asked to rank the prime minister’s handling of the issue on a scale from zero to 10, a huge majority, 63% gave Netanyahu a 6 or higher rating, compared to just 31% who gave him a 5 or below. The figure was higher among Jews, at 67%, but fully 43% of Arabs also gave Netanyahu a positive six-and-above rating.

The latest survey was conducted November 26-27 among a representative sample of 601 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.5%. The Peace Index has been taken monthly since 1994. The detailed results of the latest survey can be found here.

Iran checkmates the P5+1 – Al Arabiya News.

In the deal between Iran and the six world powers, it appears that a rogue regime marching towards nuclearization has outmaneuvered the West.

In disarming the sanctions regime so painstakingly put together over the last few years, the Iranians have given almost nothing meaningful in return. Instead, they are employing the same playbook that brought the mullahcracy to power and the very strategy that allowed North Korea to get the bomb. Above all, Iran now has an international mechanism that will allow it to effectively play for time.

Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, the West has tried using covert and public negotiations with Iran, arms deals, direct confrontation, cyber-warfare, containment and indirect action against Iran’s terrorist proxies. Most recently, the United States and its Western allies have strenuously employed sanctions to punish the banks, corporations and charities that have actively assisted Iran in its attempts to secure the bomb, and by all accounts, it was the sanctions that finally brought Iran to the negotiation table.

The goal of these sanctions was always to halt Iran’s nuclear weapons program, not just to slow it down. Unfortunately, the new agreement fails to achieve that objective and takes the wind out of the sails of one of the few tools to have had measurable policy impact. The deal provides Iran with significant sanctions relief over the next six months. Iran is now expected to earn approximately $7-10 billion in oil sales, precious metal and automobile transactions that otherwise would have been frozen. The Obama administration is calling this a “small sum of money to be released.” But the Iranian regime reportedly has only $20 billion in unrestricted access to foreign currency reserves, and the agreement will add another 30-50 percent to its coffers, a hefty sum for a regime facing a hobbled economy and a currency crisis.

A close reading of the agreement demonstrates that in return for these Western concessions, Iran is not obligated to stop uranium enrichment. On the contrary, through a gaping hole in the agreement, Iran may keep the 10,000 centrifuges already spinning and is merely forbidden to build new ones. It is not obligated to shut down its plutonium reactor at Arak, nor is it required to transfer its uranium and plutonium stockpiles out of the country.

At odds

Only hours after the deal came to light, the two sides were already at odds on its key provision: whether Iran has the right to enrich uranium. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is openly rejoicing that the agreement recognizes this “right” and takes a credible threat of military action off the table. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry disputes both interpretations, but notes that “everyone has the right to be skeptical” of Iran’s intentions.

Many are dubbing the agreement a “fool’s bargain.” In fact, in return for Iran’s agreement to freeze the growth of its nuclear program, the West should have frozen any new sanctions while continuing to implement existing sanctions. For each step Iran verifiably rolled back, the West should have responded in kind. Ultimately, this type of approach could have ensured that Iran’s nuclear program was intended for peaceful purposes only.

The United States is claiming victory because it persuaded the Iranians to agree to oxidize their 20-percent stockpile of enriched uranium down to five percent. But by all measures, this type of stockpile can quickly be ramped back up to 20 percent, particularly with the regime’s existing centrifuges. According to Zarif, all the measures Iran will take are “reversible, and they can be reversed fast.”

The P5 +1’s message is clear: The sanctions regime is dying. Iran is free again to sell its oil, trade in precious metals, buy new parts for its ailing airline industry and grow its automotive sector. No doubt many in China, Japan, Germany, South Korea and India are already lining up to continue doing business with the Islamic Republic.

Iran is following North Korea’s example. The six-party talks that followed Pyongyang’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003 were ostensibly aimed at finding a peaceful solution to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Though the discussions by all accounts were substantive and fruitful, in October 2006, Pyongyang announced that it was testing its first nuclear weapon. North Korea had simply played for time to master the full nuclearization cycle and test its bomb.

Iran is no stranger to bazaar negotiations and employing tactics that are less than transparent. For example, during Ayatollah Khomeini’s exile in Iraq and France, he worked with opposition groups ideologically opposed to his own – ultimately bringing him to power – making pacts with them using tactics such as khode (tricking an opponent into misjudging a position), tanfia (removing the enemy’s sting), and taqiyya (concealing one’s true opinions when dealing with the “enemies of Islam”.

Bumper stickers around the Muslim world state that “innallaha ma sabirin,” God is with those who are patient. As creators of the game of chess, Iranians are not only masters of strategy and thinking several steps ahead, but have more than enough patience to go around. As the West struggles with a simple game of checkers, it looks like the Iranians have gotten their checkmate.

_________________________

Avi Jorisch serves as a Senior Fellow for Counter-terrorism at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington DC and on the Advisory Board of United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI). He has lived and traveled for extensive periods of time in the Middle East, and worked professionally in the Washington think tank community and various agencies of the U.S. government. Mr. Jorisch is a frequent media commentator on threat finance, radical Islam and the Arab-Israeli conflict, publishing in influential media outlets, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, U.S. News and World Report, USA Today, Dailybeast-Newsweek and Al Arabiya. Mr. Jorisch regularly briefs members of Congress, European parliamentarians, intelligence community officials from around the globe on the most effective use of financial tools to pursue rogue regimes, such as Iran and North Korea, and the terrorist organizations they support. Contact him at avi@avijorisch.com.

Tehran: Mossad and Saudi intelligence are designing super-Stuxnet to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.

Super-Stuxnet in the making

Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency “reveals” that Saudi Arabia and Israel’s Mossad are “co-conspiring to produce a computer worm more destructive than the Stuxnet malware to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program.” The report appeared Monday, Dec. 2, during foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s tour of Arabian Gulf capitals,with the object of easing tensions between the emirates and Tehran. Riyadh was not on his itinerary.

In 2010, Stuxnet, reputed to have been developed by the US and Israel, was the malworm which attacked the software of Iran’s uranium enrichment program and caused a major slowdown, as well as disrupting its only nuclear reactor at Bushehr.

The Iranian agency now claims that Saudi intelligence director Prince Bandar Bin Sultan and the head of Israel’s Mossad Tamir Pardo met in Vienna on Nov. 24, shortly after the six world powers signed their first interim nuclear agreement with Iran in Geneva.

The two spy chiefs brought with them teams of Israeli and Saudi cyber specialists to discuss “the production of a malware worse than Stuxnet to spy on and destroy the software structure of Iran’s nuclear program,” according to Fars. Riyadh was willing to put up the funding estimated roughly at $1 million.

This plan was approved after the Geneva deal was roundly castigated by Saudi Arabia for acknowledging Iran’s rights to enrich uranium as “Western treachery,” while Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu called it “a historic mistake” and a danger to the world.

Without spelling this out, the Iranian source suggested that President Barack Obama, who in 2010 was ready to go along with the Stuxnet attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, had changed course and opted out of further cyber war after deciding to make Iran his strategic partner in the Middle East.

Israeli intelligence had therefore turned to Saudi intelligence, said the Iranian source.

The same source “disclosed,” without citing dates, that the Saudi prince and the Israeli spy chief had rendezvoused a number of times in the Jordanian port of Aqaba. When those meetings became an open secret in the Middle East, Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz is said to have warned Bandar that the close direct collaboration between the two agencies was causing concern in the royal house.
In another “revelation,” Fars claimed that Prince Bandar secretly visited Israel under cover of French President Francois Hollande’s state visit on Nov. 17-18, ahead of the Geneva meeting on Iran’s nuclear program. This source said the Saudi prince took part in the high-powered Franco-Israeli discussions in Tel Aviv on ways to halt Iran’s nuclear progress.

debkafile’s intelligence sources infer four motives from the manner and timing of the Iranian news agency’s story:

1.  To draw the Crown Prince into reprimanding Bandar for being over-zealous in his partnership with an Israeli head of intelligence and so embarrass him at home. This fits into the context of the succession struggle which our Gulf sources report is afoot in Riyadh. A group of princes is campaigning for Salman’s removal as Crown Prince. Bandar is one of them.
By highlighting his association with Pardo, the Fars publication seeks to discredit Bandar and stir up trouble to sharpen the infighting in Riyadh, with a view to weakening Saudi Arabia’s hand against Iran.

2.  Tehran is getting seriously worried about the Saudi-Israeli intelligence partnership and the prospect of them acting together for covert operations, including cyber warfare, against their nuclear projects. Going public on this partnership is intended to show the Iranian people that the regime is on top of these dangers and well prepared to forestall them.
3. Detractors of the Geneva accord in Tehran are being warned by the regime that formidable external threats lie in wait for the national nuclear program and they would be well advised to desist from their opposition to the deal with the six powers, because it weakens the country’s defenses.
4. The Fars disclosures were picked up and run by Russian media on Dec. 2 – albeit shunned by Western publications – evidence of the close cooperation between Iranian and Russian intelligence services.
No part of these reports is confirmed from any other sources.

Israel fears Obama is leading region towards catastrophe – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Small, ideological group encircling Obama, calling for final deal with Iran, regardless of price, forcing US to lose international leadership position. In Israel, officials believe Israel lost ability to influence White House on deal with Iran, pointing to greatest crisis of confidence in 20 years

The Israeli political-security establishment is increasingly concerned at what seems to be an American desire to reach a deal with Iran regardless of the price. To make matters worse, even those who oppose publically clashing with the Americans say that de facto, contact between the policy makers in Obama’s White House and Jerusalem has been effectively cut off.

There are of course formal communications between Washington and Israeli leaders, but Israeli officials believe that in the situation born out of the post-Geneva agreement, Israel has pretty much lost its ability to influence Obama regarding Iran and other international issues.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid said Monday that the US is and remains Israel’s most “strategic asset,” but some in Jerusalem are singing a different song; they have no problem openly saying that Obama is leading the region towards a catastrophe.

The way things look from Israel now, the assumption is that Obama has fortified himself behind a small and closed ideological circle. This circle believes in partial non-interventionism and has an aversion to international conflicts – not only in the Middle East but also in South East Asia. In regards to Iran, this circle believes in pursuing a permanent deal that allows Iran to reach the nuclear threshold, while containing the nuclear program in such a way that will bar Iran from ever crossing the threshold or attaining a nuclear weapon without the West noticing.

Crisis of confidence with Israel (Photo: AFP)

In Israel, officials say that if this outline becomes a reality, then it would be nothing short of a disaster for Israel. It would mean Iran will be three months away from creating the material it needs for a first nuclear bomb.

Nonetheless, officials will admit that as far as they know there has been no real progress in Iran’s “arms group” – the group which develops the prototype for the Iran’s nuclear centers and then its warheads.

Not the same US

In Israel there are those that believe that Obama’s administration is eager – if not to say anxious – to reach an agreement, maybe even more than the Iranians who are suffering because of the massive sanctions enacted against them.

Jerusalem believes that the American desire to reach an agreement originates from Obama’s inner circle which wants the administration to survive the next three years without conflict. The prevalent assessment – in both Jerusalem and other Mideast capitals – is that members of Obama’s inner circle stem from the left wing of the Democratic Party and believes that the Iraq and Afghanistan have tired the US public from bloodshed, and is thus interested in an administration that will focus on domestic issues like economic and social policy.

So, in an attempt to secure another presidential term for the Democrats in 2016 they want the US to be free of new international entanglements. As a result, Western officials believe, the US has lost its ability to efficiently conduct diplomacy as well as its ability to undertake clandestine operations, like assisting certain groups among the Syrian rebels.

Accordingly the US has shifted from the leading regional superpower in the Mideast – as well as most of the world – to a force “leading from behind.” In other words, the US has moved aside and now allows other nations to lead the handling of international crises, like the French-led efforts in Libya and Russian management of the Syrian crisis.

By the way, not so long ago there were those in Israel who called on the White House to coordinate its positions with Russia in a bid to bring about a viable peace in Syria’s civil war. The White House thought well of the idea but for any number of reasons it failed to actualize. The result is now known to everyone: Russian President Vladimir Putin forced Obama into accepting the Russian solution for Syrian chemical disbarment.

Nonetheless, Israeli officials note that the deal eventually reached in regards to Syria is positive, and seems to be implemented according to plans. However, the deal offers Syrian President Bashar Assad a new air of legitimacy, proof that the deal is in fact being carried out as agreed.

Israel’s demands

So what are Israel’s demands in regards to a final agreement with Iran?

Jerusalem does not want Iran to remain a hop, scotch, and a leap from nuclear capabilities but rather they want Iran completely stripped of its ability to enrich uranium and to create plutonium. Israel’s minimum demand is that any agreement will push Iran’s nuclear program at least two or three years back.

Israel’s diplomatic-security establishment feels that the current agreement does not take into account the Israeli position, and on the basis of this feeling the Israeli establishment has decided not to compromise on a number of key points and is adamant in its determination to prevent the interim agreement from turning into a permanent one.

For example, Israel wants any future and final deal to address the issue of the “arms group.” This means that unlike the interim agreement, the final one will set up a number of mechanisms for making sure that the Iranians will not develop a nuclear detonation center nor build warheads or bombs that can be air-dropped. In addition, Israel is demanding that the US pressure Iran into promising it will halt its terror funding activities.

Confidence crisis peaking

Jerusalem and other Mideast states feel that as a result of the Geneva agreement and the events leading up to it, especially what has been characterized as Iranian President Hassan Rohani and Foreign Minister Javed Zarif’s ‘charm offensive’, Iran managed to pull itself out of international isolation and is now gaining more and more influence in the region.

The most immediate winner of this process is the axis of radical Shiites, which as Iran’s proxy are also gaining power at the expense of the Sunni bloc lead by Saudi Arabia, which bridges between Gulf States, Turkey and Egypt.

In addition, the relief in sanctions has led economic forces in Europe and Asia to compete for future arms contracts with Iran. The feeling in Jerusalem is that the dam has been broken and the way for Iran to circumnavigate sanctions in the future has been paved. Even now, the Turkish Finance Ministry has authorized financial interactions with Iran.

From Israel’s perspective, all these issues must be addressed in the final comprehensive deal, but decision makers in Jerusalem and army leaders in Tel Aviv are pessimistic, because of what they call Washington’s deaf ear.

Obama did invite Netanyahu together with a delegation of Israeli specialists to advise the US on future negations with Iran, and the group has yet to take off to the US, hinting that everything is still supposedly in the open. However the feeling is that when push comes to shove Israel will have to deal with an Iran that is on the US-sanctioned nuclear threshold – at least until Khamenei decides to move forward.

A crisis of confidence of this magnitude has not been felt between the two nations for over two decades, at least since George H. W. Bush suspended US aid because of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s expansive settlement policy.