WarSclerotic

BBC News – Saudi nuclear weapons ‘on order’ from Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight.

While the kingdom’s quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran’s atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.

Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.

Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, “the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring.”

Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, “we will get nuclear weapons”, the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.

Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama’s counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight:

Gary Samore served as President Barack Obama’s WMD tsar

“I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.”

The story of Saudi Arabia’s project – including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges – goes back decades.

In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China.

These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago.

This summer experts at defence publishers Jane’s reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran.

It has also been clear for many years that Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan’s defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs.

Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.

Defence publisher Jane’s revealed the existence of Saudi Arabia’s third and undisclosed intermediate-range ballistic missile site, approximately 200 km southwest of Riyadh

In its quest for a strategic deterrent against India, Pakistan co-operated closely with China which sold them missiles and provided the design for a nuclear warhead.

The Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was accused by western intelligence agencies of selling atomic know-how and uranium enrichment centrifuges to Libya and North Korea.

AQ Khan is also believed to have passed the Chinese nuclear weapon design to those countries. This blueprint was for a device engineered to fit on the CSS-2 missile, i.e the same type sold to Saudi Arabia.

Because of this circumstantial evidence, allegations of a Saudi-Pakistani nuclear deal started to circulate even in the 1990s, but were denied by Saudi officials.

They noted that their country had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and called for a nuclear-free Middle East, pointing to Israel’s possession of such weapons.

The fact that handing over atom bombs to a foreign government could create huge political difficulties for Pakistan, not least with the World Bank and other donors, added to scepticism about those early claims.

In Eating the Grass, his semi-official history of the Pakistani nuclear program, Major General Feroz Hassan Khan wrote that Prince Sultan’s visits to Pakistan’s atomic labs were not proof of an agreement between the two countries. But he acknowledged, “Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue.”

Whatever understandings did or did not exist between the two countries in the 1990s, it was around 2003 that the kingdom started serious strategic thinking about its changing security environment and the prospect of nuclear proliferation.

A paper leaked that year by senior Saudi officials mapped out three possible responses – to acquire their own nuclear weapons, to enter into an arrangement with another nuclear power to protect the kingdom, or to rely on the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.

It was around the same time, following the US invasion of Iraq, that serious strains in the US/Saudi relationship began to show themselves, says Gary Samore.

The Saudis resented the removal of Saddam Hussein, had long been unhappy about US policy on Israel, and were growing increasingly concerned about the Iranian nuclear program.

In the years that followed, diplomatic chatter about Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation began to increase.

In 2007, the US mission in Riyadh noted they were being asked questions by Pakistani diplomats about US knowledge of “Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation”.

The unnamed Pakistanis opined that “it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical ‘protector'” of the Arab world by seeking nuclear weapons, according to one of the State Department cables posted by Wikileaks.

By the end of that decade Saudi princes and officials were giving explicit warnings of their intention to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did.

Having warned the Americans in private for years, last year Saudi officials in Riyadh escalated it to a public warning, telling a journalist from the Times “it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom”.

But were these statements bluster, aimed at forcing a stronger US line on Iran, or were they evidence of a deliberate, long-term plan for a Saudi bomb? Both, is the answer I have received from former key officials.

One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal – probably unwritten – his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically “what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn’t charity.”

Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed “the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred.”

As for the seriousness of the Saudi threat to make good on the deal, Simon Henderson, Director of the Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BBC Newsnight “the Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don’t bluff on this issue.”

Talking to many serving and former officials about this over the past few months, the only real debate I have found is about how exactly the Saudi Arabians would redeem the bargain with Pakistan.

Some think it is a cash-and-carry deal for warheads, the first of those options sketched out by the Saudis back in 2003; others that it is the second, an arrangement under which Pakistani nuclear forces could be deployed in the kingdom.

Gary Samore, considering these questions at the centre of the US intelligence and policy web, at the White House until earlier this year, thinks that what he calls, “the Nato model”, is more likely.

However ,”I think just giving Saudi Arabia a handful of nuclear weapons would be a very provocative action”, says Gary Samore.

He adds: “I’ve always thought it was much more likely – the most likely option if Pakistan were to honour any agreement would be for be for Pakistan to send its own forces, its own troops armed with nuclear weapons and with delivery systems to be deployed in Saudi Arabia”.

This would give a big political advantage to Pakistan since it would allow them to deny that they had simply handed over the weapons, but implies a dual key system in which they would need to agree in order for ‘Saudi Arabian’ “nukes” to be launched.

Others I have spoken to think this is not credible, since Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as the leader of the broader Sunni Islamic ‘ummah’ or community, would want complete control of its nuclear deterrent, particularly at this time of worsening sectarian confrontation with Shia Iran.

And it is Israeli information – that Saudi Arabia is now ready to take delivery of finished warheads for its long-range missiles – that informs some recent US and Nato intelligence reporting. Israel of course shares Saudi Arabia’s motive in wanting to worry the US into containing Iran.

Amos Yadlin declined to be interviewed for our BBC Newsnight report, but told me by email that “unlike other potential regional threats, the Saudi one is very credible and imminent.”

Even if this view is accurate there are many good reasons for Saudi Arabia to leave its nuclear warheads in Pakistan for the time being.

Doing so allows the kingdom to deny there are any on its soil. It avoids challenging Iran to cross the nuclear threshold in response, and it insulates Pakistan from the international opprobrium of being seen to operate an atomic cash-and-carry.

These assumptions though may not be safe for much longer. The US diplomatic thaw with Iran has touched deep insecurities in Riyadh, which fears that any deal to constrain the Islamic republic’s nuclear program would be ineffective.

Earlier this month the Saudi intelligence chief and former ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar announced that the kingdom would be distancing itself more from the US.

While investigating this, I have heard rumours on the diplomatic grapevine, that Pakistan has recently actually delivered Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, minus warheads.

These reports, still unconfirmed, would suggest an ability to deploy nuclear weapons in the kingdom, and mount them on an effective, modern, missile system more quickly than some analysts had previously imagined.

In Egypt, Saudi Arabia showed itself ready to step in with large-scale backing following the military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi’s government.

There is a message here for Pakistan, of Riyadh being ready to replace US military assistance or World Bank loans, if standing with Saudi Arabia causes a country to lose them.

Newsnight contacted both the Pakistani and Saudi governments. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has described our story as “speculative, mischievous and baseless”.

It adds: “Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapon state with robust command and control structures and comprehensive export controls.”

The Saudi embassy in London has also issued a statement pointing out that the Kingdom is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has worked for a nuclear free Middle East.

But it also points out that the UN’s “failure to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone is one of the reasons the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rejected the offer of a seat on the UN Security Council”.

It says the Saudi Foreign Minister has stressed that this lack of international action “has put the region under the threat of a time bomb that cannot easily be defused by manoeuvring around i

Israel preemptively rejects new Iran proposal | The Times of Israel.

Reported plan to limit Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief is ‘a bad deal,’ official tells AFP

By Times of Israel staff November 7, 2013, 3:31 am

Iran’s heavy water nuclear facilities near the central city of Arak, 150 miles (240 kilometers) southwest of Tehran (photo credit: AP/ISNA/Hamid Foroutan/File)

Israel is reportedly urging its Western allies to reject an expected proposal to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for limited relief from crippling economic sanctions.

“Israel in the last few hours has learned that a proposal will be brought before the P5+1 in Geneva in which Iran will cease all enrichment at 20 percent and slow down work on the heavy water reactor in Arak, and will receive in return the easing of sanctions,” an Israeli official told AFP Wednesday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Israel thinks this is a bad deal and will oppose it strongly,” the official added.

A senior US official, speaking to reporters on Wednesday said both sides are coming to the table in Geneva Thursday with an understanding of what they want from each other as a “first step” — and what they are willing to give in return. She, too, asked for anonymity as a condition for participation in her briefing.

She said the six world powers — the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany — are ready to offer “limited, targeted and reversible” sanctions relief in response to agreement by Iran to start rolling back activities that could be used to make weapons.

But in a nod to skeptics in Congress, she emphasized that any economic relief given Iran can be canceled, should Tehran renege on commitments it makes in Geneva. And she said the six powers were looking to test the durability of any initial nuclear limits Iran agreed to by waiting — possibly for as long as six months — after such agreement before any sanctions relief kicked in.

Another official from one of the delegations negotiating with Iran said easing core sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and finance sectors is not on offer unless Tehran makes sweeping concessions — something it is not likely to do at this point. He also demanded anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss negotiating points.

The Israeli official told AFP, “Israel’s assessment is that the P5+1 is in a position of strength. The sanctions are hurting Iran, Iran is feeling the pressure and the P5+1 has the capability to compel Iran to end all enrichment and to stop construction of the facility in Arak.”

In Tehran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard leaders have been mollified somewhat for now by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s suggestion that he will give President Hassan Rouhani only a limited time to negotiate an end to the sanctions. Underscoring the support that the hard-liners enjoy in Tehran, tens of thousands marked Monday’s anniversary of the 1979 storming of the US Embassy with chants of “Death to America!”

Inside Israel’s Quest For Cyberwar Supremacy – All News Is Global.

Israel opposes alleged Iran nuclear proposal | JPost | Israel News.

Israeli official: Tehran will offer to cease 20% enrichment, slow down work in Arak in return for sanctions relief; US official: Washington willing to offer “reversible sanctions relief” in exchange for “first steps” on nuclear program.

Israel urges world powers to reject a deal Iran is planning on presenting to world powers in nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, offering to partly cut back its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, AFP reported on Wednesday evening.

“Israel in the last few hours has learned that a proposal will be brought before the P5+1 in Geneva in which Iran will cease all enrichment at 20 percent and slow down work on the heavy water reactor in Arak, and will receive in return the easing of sanctions,” an Israeli official told AFP.

He went on to say Jerusalem considers this a bad deal, and “will oppose it strongly.”

According to the official, the P5+1 group was in a position of strength, as Western sanctions were crippling the Iranian economy.

“Iran is feeling the pressure and the P5+1 has the capability to compel Iran to end all enrichment and to stop construction of the facility in Arak,” he said.

Earlier on Wednesday, a senior US official said that Washington was willing to offer Tehran “very limited, temporary, reversible sanctions relief” in return for the Islamic Republic making a “first step” that stops its nuclear program advancing further and starts reversing parts of it.

“What we’re looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran’s nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for first time in decades,” the Obama administration official told reporters.

This phase must involve levels of Iran’s uranium enrichment, its stockpiles of the material as well as international monitoring, the official said.

“We’re looking for ways to put additional time on the clock,” the administration official added.

Such a first step by Tehran, which denies seeking the capability to make nuclear weapons, would create space for further negotiations on a comprehensive settlement, the official said.

Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful energy and medical purposes only. But its refusal to curb sensitive nuclear activity that can also have military applications has drawn sanctions, damaging its oil-dependent economy.

The P5+1 includes the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – Britain, Russia, France, United States and China – as well as Germany.

The world powers will meet with the Iranian nuclear team in Geneva on Thursday and Friday for the second round of nuclear talks since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was elected in June.

US says willing to relieve sanction if Iran takes ‘first step’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Senior White House official says US wants Islamic republic to agree to stop nuclear program in this week’s talks. Gullup survey indicates most Iranians support nuclear program despite suffering sanctions.

Ynet

The United States wants Iran to agree in negotiations this week a “first step” that stops its nuclear program advancing further and starts reversing parts of it, a senior administration official said on Wednesday.

In return for such a move, Washington would be willing to offer Iran “very limited, temporary, reversible sanctions relief,” the official said, giving no detail on what those measures might be.

The official was speaking on the eve of the two-day talks between Iran and six world powers in Geneva that seek to build on a diplomatic opening created by the election of relatively moderate Hassan Rohani as Iran’s new president in June.

“What we’re looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran’s nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for first time in decades,” the official told reporters.

This phase must involve levels of Iran’s uranium enrichment, its stockpiles of the material as well as international monitoring, the official said.

“We’re looking for ways to put additional time on the clock,” the administration official added.

Such a first step by Tehran, which denies seeking the capability to make nuclear weapons, would create space for further negotiations on a comprehensive settlement, the official said.

Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful energy and medical purposes only. But its refusal to curb sensitive nuclear activity that can also have military applications has drawn sanctions, damaging its oil-dependent economy.

Report: Iranians support nuclear program

A Gullup survey, conducted in Iran in December 2012 and released Wednesday, revealed that 56% of Iranians reported that sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the US and Western Europe have hurt Iranians’ livelihoods a great deal. Some 29% noted sanctions have hurt somewhat.

Despite these data, the survey indicated that 63% of Iranians believe that Tehran should continue to develop its nuclear program. According to Gallup, this is a sign of a strong Iranian nationalistic sentiment growing as a result of the huge international pressure on the country.

Gallup stressed that when the question was phrased differently, Iranian expressed lower support in the nuclear program: When asked if they “support” their country’s strive for nuclear ability without regard to the conflict with the West, 56% of Iranians backed a non-military nuclear program, with only 34% supporting a race for military nuclear ability.

According to the poll, Iranians consider the US as responsible for the sanctions against them. One out of ten Iranians considers the Iranian government to be at fault. Only 9% consider Israel responsible for the sanctions, and 6% blame the Western European countries. Some 16% of Iranians say they have no opinion in the matter; the survey polled 4,507 Iranians aged 15 and up.

The survey was published as the negotiations between Iran and the West were underway, and as US and Europe expressed hope for a peaceful end to the Iran nuclear program. Iran has made it clear that its main goal is to remove sanctions, which include a ban on gas and a prohibition on trade with Iranian companies. The sanctions caused a dramatic rise in prices and a severe weakening of the Iranian currency.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been continuously warning the West from succumbing to what he referred to as the Iranian stunt, imploring the US not to allow Iran to use the talks as means to stall as it develops a nuclear bomb.

Last week, the US government asked Congress to avoid approving further sanctions against Iran, so as not to hurt trust between the negotiating teams. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is calling for more sanctions, and insists the West must use Iran’s current weakness to disarm it of a nuclear program completely.

Meanwhile, Noble Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi critized Iranian president Hassan Rohani Wednesday, saying a rise in executions and deterioration in human rights in Iran followed his taking over the presidency. According to Ebadi, Rohani is ignoring his promise to improve human rights in Iran.

Israel (not US) leads global drone export market – YouTube.

( I believe this technology will play a big role in any operation against the Iranian nuclear program. – JW )

Published on Nov 6, 2013

The Drone market is booming worldwide, moving so quickly that aviation experts predict unmanned aerial vehicle sales will soon take the largest market share of all aircraft sales. The front-running drone exporter is, surprisingly, not the U.S., it’s Israel.
Israel leads global drone export market – IDF among pioneers of military drone technology

In the world of new age surveillance and cutting-edge military technology, UAVs are the path of the future unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, outfitted with advanced radar, cameras, satellite communications, infrared sensors and missiles can be put to use for everything from spying on neighbor countries to executing precision hits on targets Within the realm of unmanned systems, Israel is the world’s top exporter.

A report released earlier this year by international consulting firm Frost and Sullivan cites Israel’s Unmanned Aerial System exports at four and a half billion dollars between the years 2005 to 2012. The top clients are the UK, Brazil and India.

For a tiny country – population eight million – elevated export numbers are attributed to several factors. Main competitor, the United States, probably produces more drones, but strict export limitations and internal supply demand cut down on numbers of drones being shipped out. And Israel offers potential buyers options they can’t get anywhere else.
With prohibitive price tags – 140 million dollars for this Global Hawk – interested clients can sample the technology and pay by the hour, week, month or year and return the drone when the contract expires. UAV demand is expanding, and incorporating drones in civil realms is growing. Experts say Israel’s continuous upgrade and innovation in response to market demand keeps the country’s UAV industry in a front-running, competitive slot.

The next level is domestic aviation – unmanned cargo movement and farther down the road, pilotless commercial flights.

US willing to offer Iran ‘reversible sanctions relief’ in exchange for ‘first steps’ on nuclear program | JPost | Israel News.

( Obama must be betting that Netanyahu is bluffing.  He may be right.  If he isn’t, the war should begin shortly.  God help us. – JW )

REUTERS

11/06/2013 21:04

“What we’re looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran’s nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for first time in decades,” US official tells reporters.

Iran ‘Prepared for Exit of Foreigners from Syria’ – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

Reuters

Iran has said it is ready to call for the withdrawal of foreign fighters in Syria – presumably including its own fighters, who have been assisting President Bashar al-Assad’s forces combat a 2.5-year old rebellion.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was asked if Iran would use its influence over Lebanese Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

“Iran is prepared to call for the withdrawal of all foreign forces. We are prepared for everybody with influence to push for (the) withdrawal of all non-Syrians from the Syrian soil,” Zarif replied, according to Euronews.

He also said a framework deal on nuclear talks was possible this week. Iran will resume negotiations with the United States, Russia, France, Britain, China and Germany in Geneva on Thursday.

In an interview with France 24 as he was in Paris for talks with his French counterpart Laurent Fabius, Zarif said, “I believe it is possible to reach an agreement during this meeting, but I can only talk for our side, I cannot talk for the other side.”

Zarif added, however, that a failure to strike a deal in Geneva would not be “a disaster”.

“I believe we’ve come very far in the last three rounds [of talks], so we [only] need to make a few more steps,” he told France 24.

“We are prepared to make them in Geneva. But if we can’t take them in Geneva, we’ll take them in the next round.”

Meanwhile the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Yukiya Amano, said he is considering an invitation to visit Tehran, which would also be a sign of progress in the long stalled talks.

Report: Obama Linking ‘Peace Talks,’ Iran – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

President Barack Obama

Daily newspaper Maariv reports Wednesday that the US Administration under President Barack Obama has relayed a series of messages to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, according to which – if Netanyahu makes progress in “peace talks” with the Palestinian Authority (PA) – “it will be easier for the US to support Israel’s position” in the negotiations between the western powers and Iran, and to refrain from easing sanctions on Iran in exchange for partial concessions by the Islamic Republic.

The paper quotes ” American sources” who said that in messages relayed to Netanyahu by Secretary of State John Kerry as well as President Obama, the US leaders explained that most of the international community is working to bring about a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear development, and that Israel’s position regarding these talks is well-known.

The message, says Maariv, is that if he makes meaningful progress vis-à-vis the PA, this will help him receive US support for his position on Iran.

The trade-off – some would say blackmail – was dubbed “Bushehr-for-Yitzhar” by Israeli pundits when it was first floated during Obama’s first term in office. Bushehr is an Iranian nuclear plant, while Yitzhar is a community in Samaria that the Israeli left wing dreams of seeing torn down.

Arutz Sheva‘s Mark Langfan wrote earlier this year that “Obama’s very ‘linkage’ of the Iran’s nukes with Israel coughing up a Palestinian State only means Obama intends to allow Iran to get nukes, and wants Israel to be the his ‘scapegoat’ cover for the failure of Obama’s own catastrophic Iranian nuclear appeasement.”

However, Maariv adds, the Administration is making efforts not to get into a confrontation with Israel.

Israel preps for massive air drill with US, Greece, Italy | The Times of Israel.

IAF pilots conduct practice runs, brush up their English ahead of country’s largest-ever air exercise later this month

By Elie Leshem November 6, 2013, 10:22 am

Two Israeli F-15I ‘Ra’am’ fighter jets during maneuvers (illustrative photo: CC BY-TSgt Kevin J. Gruenwald/USA/Wikimedia)

The Israeli Air Force will conduct a joint drill with a bevy of some 1,000 pilots from three other nations in the Negev Desert later this month.

The two-week exercise will take place at the Uvda air base, near the southern resort city of Eilat, and will include air crews from the United States, Italy and Greece, the IAF announced Tuesday.

The drill, which has been dubbed “Blue Flag,” will be modeled after the US Air Force’s annual Red Flag desert exercise. More than 100 aircraft will be on hand to participate in simulated dogfights and surface-to-air exercises.

It will be the largest international drill ever held in Israel, requiring the IAF to conduct extensive preparations.

“A moment before the start signal, Israeli squadrons are embarking on a preparatory workshop during which they’ll take off, maneuver and drill for four full days so as to ready themselves, as much as possible, for the impending international exercise,” the IAF said in a statement on its website.

Israeli pilots have also been practicing their in-flight English.

“Blue Flag is a highly advanced drill and we have to conduct it in English – something that we aren’t accustomed to,” said Second Lieutenant Omri, who is in charge of one squadron’s preparatory workshop.

The IAF has been drilling extensively in recent years for the possibility that it will be called upon to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Last month, as talks over Iran’s nuclear program kicked off in Geneva, the IAF conducted several large exercises over the northern border and the Mediterranean Sea, with fighter aircraft practicing a simulated strike on a distant target.

Those flights included midair refueling, coordinated strikes to an exceptionally long distance, and dogfights. They were carried out over the territorial waters of Greece, which will be among the countries participating in Blue Flag this month.