Archive for November 25, 2013

Bipartisan scorn for the interim deal

November 25, 2013

Bipartisan scorn for the interim deal.

By Jennifer Rubin, Updated: November 25 at 9:45 am

The president might have thought Democrats would stick with him on Iran, but Democrats are, I think, both genuinely alarmed at the interim deal and, in any case, in no mood to do the administration favors in the wake of the Obamacare fiasco.

As a result, there was near unanimity among elected leaders on the Sunday shows and in written statements that the deal gave too much in sanctions and does not stop enrichment activities or dismantle illegal enrichment operations. Among those speaking out were Democratic Senators Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Ben Cardin (Md.); ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.); the Republican speaker, majority leader and whip; and House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).

Even the New York Times conceded that the deal does not roll back enrichment advances over the last five years. Most troubling for critics was language in the deal that a final deal would include “a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program.” This directly contradicts U.S. policy and is anathema to Israel.

Moreover, Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who has been instrumental in devising sanctions legislation explained:

The U.N. resolutions require Iran to “provide such access and cooperation as the [International Atomic Energy Agency] IAEA requests” to resolve the International Atomic Energy Agency’s concerns about Iran’s research into nuclear-weapons design. Multiple IAEA reports, including from March 2011 and November 2011, have provided extensive descriptions of Iranian research involving activities related to the development of a nuclear explosive and noted that some of the research “may still be ongoing.” Yet the interim agreement does almost nothing to gain such access and cooperation or to require Iran to come clean or provide access and cooperation to ensure that such research is not continuing.

As my colleague Glenn Kessler pointed out, this is just the latest change in an ever-more-lenient approach to Iran. Consider that the United Nations has passed resolution after resolution demanding Iran cease enrichment; now Obama suggests an enrichment program will be available to Iran. The interim deal is even worse than this administration’s own position in 2009. (“The parties appear to reach agreement on a side deal, in which Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium would be shipped to Russia and then France for conversion into fuel plates for a research reactor running low on fuel. But the deal falls apart after Iran balks at shipping out its stock of enriched uranium. Iran eventually announces it will enrich uranium to nearly 20 percent. That is the level needed for a research reactor — but also 90 percent of the way to weapons-grade fuel.”)

With no restraint on Iran’s ballistic missile program, there is nothing, as Dubowitz put it, “to stop Iran from having a designed bomb and ballistic missile ready to go. Once Iran completes a dash to weapons-grade uranium, it can insert the warhead and quickly have a deliverable nuclear weapon.”

Sunday marked an unprecedented and impressive revolt against an administration already low on credibility. If President Obama thought an Iran deal would lift his stature, he badly underestimated lawmakers in both parties. So, what can and should be done to hinder the Obama administration’s sprint to appeasement?

First, Congress can pass additional sanctions, deprive the executive branch of “waiver” authority on existing or future sanctions and pass an additional measure to express support for Israel, six U.S. resolutions and U.S. policy over three presidencies that Iran cannot retain domestic enrichment capabilities. If the president chooses to veto such legislation, Congress can override the veto.

Second, it is incumbent on critics of the deal to explain to the American people what is wrong with the deal. That will require members of Congress, respected experts, pro-Israel groups and former officials to lay out some basic facts. In particular, Hillary Clinton should be pressured to state her views: Is this a deal she envisioned and would have supported? If not she has an obligation to say so, and not simply because she is being held as a potential presidential candidate.

One issue that should be repeated was raised in January by former U.N. ambassador John Bolton:

Here’s the basic fact that puzzles us laymen, but not nuclear physicists: It takes much more work to enrich U-235 from its 0.7% concentration in natural uranium to reactor-grade levels (4% or 20%) than it takes to enrich from either of these levels to weapons-grade (90%+). Enrichment is simply the physical process of separating fissile U-235 isotopes from the unnecessary U-238 isotopes. Enriching 0.7% natural U-235 to 4% requires most of the work (70%) needed to enrich to levels over 90%. From 4%, enriching to 20% takes merely 15%-20% more of the work required to reach 90%+.

In short, allowing more and more enrichment at 5 percent is a recipe for an Iran with material to make plenty of bombs.

And finally, bipartisan and bicameral oversight should be intensified. Congress must not only pressure administration officials whose actions do not match their promises, but it also should solicit information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose latest exhaustive report contains detailed requests for information that are nowhere to be found in the interim deal, and outside Iran experts. (“The Agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program, as explained in GOV/2011/65. Iran did not provide access to Parchin, as requested by the Agency during its two recent visits to Tehran, and no agreement was reached with Iran on a structured approach to resolving all outstanding issues in connection with Iran’s nuclear program.”) As a former U.S. official critical of administration policy put it, “the agreement does NOT enforce all the demands the IAEA made to be able to observe the program fully and guarantee it is peaceful. So not only did we abandon the U.N. Security Council conditions, we abandoned some IAEA conditions.”

Quite simply, Congress cannot take the administration’s representations at face value. In its desperation to find a deal — any deal — with Iran, the administration is imperiling the West. The deal makes clear an Iranian enrichment program — blessed by the P5 +1 (the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) – is in the offing. If the president no longer thinks it is possible to comply with U.N. resolutions, he should say so — and then be held to account for allowing Iran to reach that point in its nuclear program. We are on the cusp of a tragic national security blunder.

 

News Outlets Held Off On Reporting Secret Iran Talks

November 25, 2013

News Outlets Held Off On Reporting Secret Iran Talks.

The Huffington Post  |  By Posted: 11/25/2013 8:28 am EST  |  Updated: 11/25/2013 11:19 am EST

Multiple news outlets held off on reporting the news of secret talks between the United States and Iran, it was revealed on Sunday.

After news broke of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West on Saturday night, the Associated Press and Al-Monitor both disclosed that the US and Iran had been engaged in unannounced negotiations since at least March.

The AP then revealed that it had known something about the talks for about that long, but did not feel it had nailed down the story enough to report it:

The AP was tipped to the first U.S.-Iranian meeting in March shortly after it occurred, but the White House and State Department disputed elements of the account and the AP could not confirm the meeting. The AP learned of further indications of secret diplomacy in the fall and pressed the White House and other officials further. As the Geneva talks between the P5+1 and Iran appeared to be reaching their conclusion, senior administration officials confirmed to the AP the details of the extensive outreach.

Paul Colford, director of media relations for the AP, told The Huffington Post that the wire service had sought “the kind of confirmation that we obviously received over the weekend” before publishing its story.

“We had to meet our own standards,” AP Washington Bureau Chief Sally Buzbee told HuffPost.

Al-Monitor wrote that it had learned of the secret diplomacy earlier in November, but had “agreed to hold the story at the administration’s request until the conclusion of the third round of nuclear talks that ended here in a breakthrough tonight.”

Al-Monitor’s Laura Rozen tweeted that the AP had also agreed to hold the story until a deal was reached, something reporters from the AP did not confirm.

Holding a story at the request of government is, of course, nothing new. Recently, the New York Times and Washington Post did not report the location of a secret drone base in Saudi Arabia for over a year. The Times and other outlets were also involved in a dispute with McClatchy over whether or not to publish details about an intercepted al Qaeda communication.

Reports: U.S. Unfreezes $8 Billion in Iranian Assets

November 25, 2013

Reports: U.S. Unfreezes $8 Billion in Iranian Assets | Washington Free Beacon.

Iranian officials praise ‘new path towards Iran’

November 25, 2013 10:35 am

The United States released $8 billion in frozen assets to Iran on Sunday in a move meant to ensure Tehran’s compliance with a nuclear pact signed over the weekend, according to top Iranian officials.

Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Baqer Nobakht confirmed on Monday morning that the U.S. government had unfrozen $8 billion in assets that had been previously blocked by the Obama administration.

The confirmation followed multiple reports of the release on Sunday in the Arab and Iranian news outlets.

Iran will be provided with about $7 billion in sanctions relief, gold, and oil sales under a nuclear deal inked late Saturday in Geneva with Western nations.

Iranian officials lauded the deal as a path to opening up greater trade relations between Iran and the world.

“The agreement will open a new path towards Iran,” Alinaqi Khamoushi, the former head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce said on Sunday as he announced the release by the United States of some $8 billion in assets, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Nobakht confirmed the figure early Monday during a briefing with reporters in Tehran.

“The agreement will ease the anti-Iran sanctions, which will have significant impacts on the Iranian economy,” the state-run Fars News Agency quoted him as saying.

One senior GOP aide on Capitol Hill was not pleased with the reports.

“It’s pretty clear the White House and State Department have been lying to the American people since the beginning of this process so it wouldn’t shock me to learn they are lying about how much sanctions relief they’re giving Iran now,” said the aide.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) criticized the deal on Sunday, when he said to a Jewish audience that both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate were united in opposition.

“Democrats and Republicans are going to work to see that we don’t let up on these sanctions … until Iran gives up not only all of their weapons but all nuclear weapon capabilities,” Schumer said. “I want to leave you with that assurance.”

A State Department spokesman did not immediately respond to a Washington Free Beacon request for comment on the reported assets relief.

Additionally, Iran announced on Sunday that its nuclear work will continue despite the deal, which aimed to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and enrichment of uranium, the key component in a nuclear weapon.

Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, who helped ink the deal, praised it for recognizing Iran’s right to enrich uranium, a key sticking point that had delayed the deal until Saturday evening.

“The [nuclear] program has been recognized and the Iranian people’s right to use the peaceful nuclear technology based on the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] and as an inalienable right has been recognized and countries are necessitated not to create any obstacle on its way,” Zarif told reporters over the weekend.

“The program will continue, and all the sanctions and violations against the Iranian nation under the pretext of the nuclear program will be removed gradually,” he added.

Iran’s most well-known nuclear sites will remain operational under the deal, according to Zarif, who presented a very different version of the agreement than that described by the White House on Saturday.

Over the next six months, Iran will see “the full removal of all [United Nations] Security Council, unilateral and multilateral sanctions, while the country’s enrichment program will be maintained,” Zarif said.

The Fordo and Natanz nuclear sites will also continue to run, he said.

“None of the enrichment centers will be closed and Fordo and Natanz will continue their work and the Arak heavy water [nuclear reactor] program will continue in its present form and no material [enriched uranium stockpiles] will be taken out of the country and all the enriched materials will remain inside the country,” Zarif said. “The current sanctions will move towards decrease, no sanctions will be imposed and Iran’s financial resources will return.”

America recognized Iran’s right to enrich uranium up to 5 percent under the deal, according to both the Iranians and a White House brief on the deal.

The United States agreed to suspend “certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran’s auto sector, and Iran’s petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran approximately $1.5 billion in revenue,” according to a fact sheet provided by the White House.

Iran could earn another $4.2 billion in oil revenue under the deal.

Another “$400 million in governmental tuition assistance” could also be “transferred from restricted Iranian funds directly to recognized educational institutions in third countries to defray the tuition costs of Iranian students,” according to the White House.

Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own – Telegraph

November 25, 2013

Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia warns it will strike out on its own – Telegraph.

Saudi Arabia claims they were kept in the dark by Western allies over Iran nuclear deal and says it will strike out on its own

The US Secretary of State holds talks with King Abdullah and praises Saudi Arabia's leadership in the region

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah in Riyadh Photo: REUTERS/Jason Reed

A senior advisor to the Saudi royal family has accused its Western allies of deceiving the oil rich kingdom in striking the nuclear accord with Iran and said Riyadh would follow an independent foreign policy.

Nawaf Obaid told a think tank meeting in London that Saudi Arabia was determined to pursue its own foreign and policy goals. Having in the past been reactive to events, the leading Sunni Muslim nation was determined to be pro-active in future.

Mr Obaid said that while Saudi Arabia knew that the US was talking directly to Iran through a channel in the Gulf state of Oman, Washington had not directly briefed its ally.

“We were lied to, things were hidden from us,” he said. “The problem is not with the deal struck in Geneva but how it was done.”

In a statement the Saudi government gave a cautious welcome to the Geneva nuclear deal. It said “good intentions” could lead to a comprehensive agreement on Tehran’s atomic programme. “This agreement could be a first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran’s nuclear programme, if there are good intentions,” the Saudi government said

But it warned that a comprehensive solution should lead to the “removal of all weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear, from the Middle East and the Gulf”.

A fellow of Harvard University’s Belfer Centre and adviser to Prince Mohammad, the Saudi ambassador to London, Mr Obaid said Saudi Arabia would continue to resist Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war. In particular he pointed to Iranian Revolutionary Guards involvement in battles in Syria on behalf of the regime.

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (L) hugs French Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius

“[Saudi Arabia] will be there to stop them wherever they are in Arab countries,” he said. “We cannot accept Revolutionary Guards running round Homs.”

Saudi Arabia’s fury at the diplomatic detente with Iran is commonly held with Israel. While both countries are in the same posion Saudi Arabia disavows any suggestion of an open alliance. Until the Palestinians have a state, Saudi Arabia will not work with Israel.

Saudi Arabia is increasingly at odds with Washington over Syria. It rejected a seat on the UN Security Council in protest at the body’s failure to “save” Syria.

Qatar is the latest Gulf Arab state to welcome the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, calling it a step toward greater stability in the region.

Saudi Arabia, has previously expressed unease about US overtures to Iran. The dialogue helped pushed along efforts by Washington and others to strike a deal with Iran seeking to ease Western concerns that Tehran could move toward nuclear weapons.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said the deal is an “important step toward safeguarding peace and stability in the region”.

Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have issued similar statements.

Shifting gears, Israeli team heading to US to try to shape final nuclear pact

November 25, 2013

Shifting gears, Israeli team heading to US to try to shape final nuclear pact | The Times of Israel.

After speaking with Obama on Sunday, Netanyahu dispatching national security adviser to Washington; says permanent deal must dismantle Iran’s program

November 25, 2013, 4:44 pm

Benjamin Netanyahu at a prize ceremony Sunday night. (Photo credit: Emil Salman/POOL/Flash90)

Benjamin Netanyahu at a prize ceremony Sunday night. (Photo credit: Emil Salman/POOL/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday announced that he was dispatching his national security adviser to Washington to discuss the particulars of a permanent agreement with Iran. That permanent deal, he said, must ensure “the dismantling of Iran’s military nuclear capability.”

“I spoke last night with President [Barack] Obama. We agreed that in the coming days an Israeli team led by the national security adviser, Yossi Cohen, will go out to discuss with the United States the permanent accord with Iran,” Netanyahu told members of his Likud party.

The two heads of state on Sunday evening discussed the deal reached by the P5+1 states and Iran, less than 24 hours after the agreement was signed.

The prime minister reacted to the news of the interim deal between world powers and Tehran by calling it a “historic mistake.” In their phone conversation, initiated by Obama, Netanyahu asked the president — who kept Israel in the dark for months about the back-channel US-Iran negotiations that helped shape the deal — to begin US-Israel consultations on the permanent deal right away, and Obama consented, Israel’s Channel 2 reported. Hence the dispatch of Yossi Cohen.

On Monday, Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to keeping Iran from acquiring a bomb but started to shift his focus from the interim deal to the intended permanent one, saying, “This accord must bring about one outcome: the dismantling of Iran’s military nuclear capability.”

“I would be happy if I could join those voices around the world that are praising the Geneva agreement,” Netanyahu remarked. “It is true that the international pressure which we applied was partly successful and has led to a better result than what was originally planned. But this is still a bad deal. It reduces pressure on Iran without receiving anything tangible in return. And the Iranians who laughed all the way to the bank are themselves saying that this deal has saved them.”

The six-month pact signed early Sunday rolls back some sanctions on Iran in return for limits on nuclear enrichment, the shuttering of certain sites and an agreement by Tehran to allow some international oversight.

The White House on Sunday said that Netanyahu and Obama “reaffirmed their shared goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” and Obama told Netanyahu that he wants the two sides “to begin consultations immediately regarding our efforts to negotiate a comprehensive solution.”

Obama also asked Netanyahu not to lobby allies in Congress to push legislation for more sanctions on Iran, Israel’s Channel 2 news reported.

“The President underscored that the United States will remain firm in our commitment to Israel, which has good reason to be skeptical about Iran’s intentions,” US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro wrote on Facebook.

“Consistent with our commitment to consult closely with our Israeli friends, the president told the prime minister that he wants the United States and Israel to begin consultations immediately regarding our efforts to negotiate a comprehensive solution,” said a statement by the White House. “The president underscored that the United States will remain firm in our commitment to Israel, which has good reason to be skeptical about Iran’s intentions,” it said.

Israeli TV news reported late Sunday that Netanyahu was “extremely angry” with Obama over the deal, that he fears the international sanctions regime will now crumble, that the US had not come clean to Israel over a secret back channel of talks with Iran, and that Israel’s military option for intervening in Iran is off the table for the foreseeable future now that the interim deal is done.

“The president provided the prime minister with an update on negotiations in Geneva and underscored his strong commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which is the aim of the ongoing negotiations,” the White House said.

According to the Associated Press, Obama updated Netanyahu on the secret talks channel in September.

Ilan Ben Zion and Adiv Sterman contributed to this report.

Netanyahu: Israel to send team to US to work on final Iran nuclear deal

November 25, 2013

Netanyahu: Israel to send team to US to work on final Iran nuclear deal | JPost | Israel News.

By JPOST.COM STAFF, GIL HOFFMAN, , REUTERS

LAST UPDATED: 11/25/2013 16:07

PM says at Likud faction meeting that he agreed with Obama that Israeli team would be sent to US next week; says that Iran interim deal is bad but would have been worse without Israeli diplomatic efforts.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama. Photo: JASON REED / REUTERS

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said at the Likud faction meeting on Monday that an Israeli team led by his national security adviser would be sent to the US next week to work on a final status nuclear deal with Iran. An interim deal was signed last week between world powers and Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

Netanyahu said that he agreed with US President Barack Obama to send the Israeli delegation to the US when the two leaders spoke about the interim Iran deal on Sunday.

“I spoke last night with President Obama. We agreed that in the coming days an Israeli team led by the national security adviser, Yossi Cohen, will go out to discuss with the United States the permanent accord with Iran,” the prime minister said.

“This accord must bring about one outcome: the dismantling of Iran’s military nuclear capability,” he said

Netanyahu added that the interim deal reached with Iran was bad but it would have been worse without Israel’s diplomatic efforts.

A lawmaker from Netanyahu’s Likud faction told an Israeli television station earlier on Monday that the premier rebuked US President Barack Obama over the interim agreement agreed upon by the Western powers and Iran on Sunday.

“The prime minister made it clear to the most powerful man on earth that if he intends to stay the most powerful man on earth, it’s important to make a change in American policy because the practical result of his current policy is liable to lead him to the same failure that the Americans absorbed in North Korea and Pakistan, and Iran could be next in line,” Likud Beytenu MK Tzachi Hanegbi told the Knesset Channel.

Obama called Netanyahu on Sunday from Air Force One to discuss the interim agreement struck between world powers and Iran.

In the call, Obama told Netanyahu that the P5+1 — the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany — would use the next several months to forge a “lasting, peaceful and comprehensive” solution to the slow-motion nuclear crisis causing consternation throughout the Middle East.

“The president told the Prime Minister that he wants the United States and Israel to begin consultations immediately regarding our efforts to negotiate a comprehensive solution,” the White House said in a readout of the call.

“The President underscored that the United States will remain firm in our commitment to Israel, which has good reason to be skeptical about Iran’s intentions.”

While the White House said both leaders expressed their mutual desire to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, it did not acknowledge any disagreement voiced in the phone call.

Netanyahu on Sunday called the deal, hailed by the US, a “historic mistake” that would make the region more dangerous tomorrow than it was before.

After a hard series of negotiations, Iran agreed late Saturday night to pause much of its nuclear program, including construction on its heavy-water plutonium reactor in Arak and the installation of advanced centrifuges made to efficiently enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. Iran also agreed to allow unfettered access to its nuclear sites and to dilute stockpiles of uranium already thoroughly enriched.

In exchange, the Islamic will attain relief from financial sanctions from the international community valued at up to $7 billion.

Michael Wilner contributed to this report.

Joe Scarborough calls Iranian deal ‘terrible” – YouTube

November 25, 2013

▶ Joe Scarborough calls Iranian deal ‘terrible” – YouTube.

 

Joe gets it right while Richard Haass makes excuses.  Even Haass says Kerry is “overselling” the deal.

Nobody (including Andrea Mitchell !) has anything good to say about it.

Poor Mika Brzezinski sits there quietly looking down…

Gen. Hayden: Iran Deal ‘Worst of All Possible Outcomes’

November 25, 2013

Gen. Hayden: Iran Deal ‘Worst of All Possible Outcomes’.

Image: Gen. Hayden: Iran Deal 'Worst of All Possible Outcomes'

Sunday, 24 Nov 2013 11:21 AM

By Audrey Hudson

Former CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden on Sunday criticized the Obama administration’s deal with Iran saying it will only delay, not derail the country’s nuclear program.

Hayden told CNN’s “State of the Union” that Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry “hit the pause button, rather than delete button.”

“Practically the worst of all possible outcomes, because now what you have here is a nuclear capable state,” Hayden said.

“I think frankly that is Iran’s bottom line, so what we’re negotiating on is how much time we’re putting between their nuclear capability and a nuclear weapon, a nuclear reality,” Hayden said.

“And my fear is, this interim agreement, which doesn’t roll back much of anything at all, becomes a permanent agreement,” Hayden said.

The six-month agreement between the U.S. and other nations requires Iran to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for some relief on sanctions.

Hayden said the agreement contradicts the U.S. alignment with Sunnis Muslim and Israelis in the region, and that it will take “an awful lot of hand holding” to convince our allies this is the correct course of action.

Former Secretary of State John Negroponte also appeared on CNN and said that the U.S. should not consider lifting sanctions until after all of the demands to roll back the nuclear program have been met.

“I think what worries a number of people is that we might get salami-sliced and that the Iranians will engage in dilatory tactics and then seek some more momentary relief from sanctions,” Negroponte said.

U.S.-Iran thaw starts to reshape Mideast power balance

November 25, 2013

U.S.-Iran thaw starts to reshape Mideast power balance – Al Arabiya News.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (R) shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at the United Nations Palais in Geneva, Nov. 24, 2013. (Reuters)

Sunday’s agreement opens the way for a thaw in U.S.-Iranian confrontation that has lasted almost as long as the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, alarming Israel and Gulf Arab rulers who fear a new regional hegemony deeply hostile to their interests.

The deal to curb but not scrap Iranian uranium enrichment, which the West has long believed was meant to develop a bomb, has implications far beyond weapons proliferation in a war-scarred region critical to world oil supplies.

For some Gulf Arab states, which see Tehran as a regional troublemaker, and for Israel, which regards Iran as a mortal threat, the Geneva agreement means they have failed to dissuade Washington from a course they suspect will end in tears, such is their distrust of the Islamic Republic.

Iran will grow richer and stronger through the easing and eventual lifting of sanctions that have shackled its economy, emboldening its Islamist rulers to step up support to Shi’ite Muslim allies in Arab countries, critics of the deal say.

In contrast, supporters of the accord say a rapprochement between two powers so long at odds could help stabilize a region in turmoil and reduce sectarian strains that have set Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims bloodily against each other.

Mistrust has been mutual, as it was in the post-World War Two impasse between the West and the Soviet Union.

The United States and Iran have had no official ties since 1980 after Iranian students occupied the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 diplomats hostage in protest against Washington’s admission of the former Shah after he was toppled by the Islamic revolution.

“Historic mistake”

With the historic Arab power centers of Egypt, Syria and Iraq all weakened by uprisings and sectarian strife, a new start with Tehran has emerged as an enticing potential win for a U.S. administration in search of a foreign policy success.

Rami Khoury of the American University of Beirut described the interim deal restricting Iran’s nuclear work as a “very good thing” that could eventually lead to rapprochement between Tehran’s clerical rulers and U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states.

“If the negotiations continue on and keep working, and the sanctions are slowly removed, it will revive Iran’s economy, and eventually its liberal movement and I think we will slowly see social and political progress in the country,” Khoury said.

“In the short run it encourages cooperation between the United States and Iran to try and deal with Syria and stop the violence there. Right now there is a common threat developing, the (Sunni militants) who will bomb the Iranians, bomb the U.S., as we’ve seen, so they’re everybody’s enemy right now.”

Experts say Gulf Arab countries will try to piece together a diplomatic and security strategy with like-minded countries to reduce their vulnerability to a resurgent Iran now eagerly contemplating a future free of crippling sanctions.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the interim deal was a historic mistake because “the most dangerous regime in the world took a significant step towards obtaining the world’s most dangerous weapon.”

Possible action

He reaffirmed a long-standing Israeli threat of possible military action against Iran, although a member of his security cabinet acknowledged the interim accord limited that option.

At the heart of Gulf Arab concerns is a belief that the moderate Iranian officials who negotiated the nuclear deal are not the hard men in charge of what they see as Shi’ite meddling in Sunni Arab countries. Those forces remain dominant in the Revolutionary Guards and intelligence services.

Gulf Arabs cite as a prime example Iranian support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, member of a sect that is an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam, who has waged a 2-1/2-year-old war against mostly Sunni rebels backed in part by Gulf Arabs.

A senior Gulf Arab official close to Saudi government thinking told Reuters the kingdom’s attitude continued to be characterized largely by “suspicion”, based on Iranian involvement in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain.

“Mischief”

“The atomic arsenal is not their only arsenal – it is the mischief arsenal they have that worries us,” he said.

“We have had a lot of accords and promises from them in the past. Now, we hope to see a corrective process with this deal.”

The disclosure that senior U.S. officials held secret bilateral talks with Iranian counterparts in recent months to prepare for the nuclear agreement may exacerbate Gulf Arab rulers’ fears that Washington is willing to go behind their backs to do a deal with Iran.

Many Gulf Arabs suspect that the commercial imperatives that have driven decades of U.S. engagement with them are similar to those driving U.S. outreach to Tehran – business.

“The U.S. has its interests – Iran is a lucrative market. Iranians need a lot of infrastructure for rebuilding that could generate billions of dollars for U.S. and U.K. oil companies,” said Abdullatif al-Mulhim, a retired Saudi navy commodore and now a newspaper commentator.

In addition, some Gulf Arabs fret that a United States increasingly self reliant in energy thanks to domestic shale gas might be less committed to guarding the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow artery through which 40 percent of global sea-borne oil exports pass.

Sami al-Faraj, a security adviser to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), said Gulf Arab governments would now work diplomatically and on the security level to ensure they were adequately protected against any resurgent Iranian ambitions.

Gulf Arabs felt slighted by the deal, he suggested.

“Iran is sitting at the high table. We are left with the leftovers.”

“More weapons”

He added: “We will acquire more weapons…We are going to check if our shopping list is adequate to respond to this.”

“We are going to rally other nations that are hurt by this action into a unified diplomatic campaign,” Fajr said.

Warming U.S.-Iranian relations could help Assad in Syria.

Some analysts speculate that Washington’s need to protect what could become one of its few diplomatic achievements in the region will mean that it will do whatever it needs to keep the Iranian thaw on track.

“Now, the U.S. is even less likely to put serious pressure on Iran over their support of the Assad regime during the negotiations,” said Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha think-tank.

“And, obviously, with everyone’s attention on Iran, Assad has cover to do pretty much whatever he wants.”
Emile Hokayem of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, played down the idea that Israel and Gulf Arab states would make common cause in any systematic way against Iran.

“It’s a convergence of interest, it’s not an alliance,” he said. “Each of them could reinforce messages on Capitol Hill, but don’t be too carried away by the possibility of direct cooperation.”

When the US let Iran off the hook

November 25, 2013

When the US let Iran off the hook | The Times of Israel.

A comprehensive deal would require Iran to come clean about its nuclear weapons program and start dismantling it. The interim deal staves off that moment of reckoning. With the wall of sanctions now cracked, that moment will never come

November 25, 2013, 1:57 pm

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif smiles and laughs as he speaks to the media at the International Conference Centre of Geneva, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2013, after the interim deal was concluded. (photo credit: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, Pool)

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif smiles and laughs as he speaks to the media at the International Conference Centre of Geneva, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2013, after the interim deal was concluded. (photo credit: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, Pool)

No, the provisions of the interim deal signed in Geneva with Iran early Sunday are not themselves disastrous. If the US and other world powers had been negotiating a contract with a dependable and credible interlocutor, the deal might make a certain amount of sense. The problem is that Iran is not a dependable or credible interlocutor. It is, rather, a cunning and deceptive adversary, and the US has let it off the hook.

In so far as they go, the terms of the deal make a certain amount of sense. Iran’s march to the bomb, in theory, is being temporarily constrained. It can no longer enrich uranium to 20% and must neutralize its existing stockpiles of 20% enriched uranium. It cannot increase its stockpiles of 3.5% enriched uranium. It can no longer advance work on its Arak heavy water facility, under a clause that was much improved from the amateurish formulation put to the Iranians in the original Geneva offer two weeks ago, which would have enabled them to continue construction there. Its acknowledged nuclear facilities will be subjected to far more intrusive and effective inspection. And the sanctions relief, formally at least, is relatively limited and theoretically reversible if the Iranians break their promises.

The problem is that Iran has never acknowledged that it is in fact marching to the bomb. And these interim arrangements, concluded at a moment when the regime felt itself to be under unprecedented economic pressure, a moment of maximal leverage, scandalously failed to require Iran to admit to those two decades-plus of lying and deception.

Instead, the United States, the free world’s only hope of thwarting Iran, appears to have convinced itself that this admission of duplicity, this Iranian confession that it has been developing nuclear weapons, can be extracted over the coming six months as negotiations move ahead on a permanent accord. Unfortunately, disastrously, that’s just not going to happen.

As stated by the White House on Sunday, the “comprehensive solution” to be negotiated by late May “envisions concrete steps to give the international community confidence that Iran’s nuclear activities will be exclusively peaceful.” By definition, then, such a comprehensive deal will require the exposure of those elements of the Iranian program — such as the Parchin military complex, where the IAEA believes Iran has carried out extensive nuclear weapons-related activities — that the regime has insistently shielded from international view.

Sorry, folks, but the Iranians will not be spending the next six months dutifully preparing to take the IAEA on a tour of all the facilities they have been lying about — dutifully detailing the bomb-making activities they carried out here, the explosives-testing they undertook there — en route to the dutiful dismantling of their entire military nuclear enterprise

A “comprehensive solution” would require Iran to come clean. It would disprove the regime’s insistent contention that it has always acted in good faith and has been the innocent victim of American and Zionist plots. It would show the regime to have lied to its own people. It would expose the duplicity of its leaders’ claims never to have sought the bomb.

The Iranian regime has always done everything in its power to avoid that moment of reckoning. And the US has now let if off the hook.

Sorry, folks, but the Iranians will not be spending the next six months dutifully preparing to take the IAEA on a tour of all the facilities they have been lying about — dutifully detailing the bomb-making activities they carried out here, the explosives-testing they undertook there — en route to the dutiful dismantling of their entire military nuclear enterprise. They won’t be shamefacedly throwing open the doors to Parchin. They won’t be providing the full story of what they’ve been up to at Fordo — the underground enrichment facility that, for Emily Landau, an expert on nuclear proliferation at Tel Aviv University’s INSS think tank, constitutes clear evidence of Iran’s military program. (There is no plausible civilian explanation for Iran having constructed a secret, underground facility that can hold only 3,000 centrifuges, Landau, who spoke to me at length for this article, points out. Fordo’s “only plausible purpose,” she says, is to take low-enriched uranium to weapons-grade level, for the production of one to two nuclear bombs per year.)

Dr. Emily Landau (photo credit: YouTube screenshot)

Dr. Emily Landau (photo credit: YouTube screenshot)

Instead, the Iranians can be utterly relied upon to spend the next six months, and a whole lot longer, arguing over the terms of the interim deal, pushing their own interpretations of what’s been agreed, while seeking every means to further ease the economic pressure they’re under. As Landau notes, the seeds of years of potential disagreement have already been sown in that there doesn’t even appear to be an agreed text of the interim deal; Iran and the White House have released different versions, with significant differences.

That avuncular, English-speaking Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will be assuring the world that Iran is fully keeping its side of the bargain, that Iran has shown its good faith, that Iran has demonstrated its mature responsibility, that Iran is being unfairly picked upon, that Iran represents no danger to anybody. And that it’s long past time to stop punishing Iran’s suffering populace with savage, unjustified economic sanctions, imposed on the basis of falsehoods and manipulation by the Israelis and their American and European patsies.

Until Sunday, the international community was telling Iran: You want sanctions relief? Then tell us the truth about your nuclear weapons program and start dismantling it. As of Sunday, the international community is telling Iran: We’re giving you limited sanctions relief, and we want you to start telling us the truth about your nuclear weapons program further on down the road.

It’s not going to work. The US has let Iran off the hook.

In theory, the cause is not yet entirely lost. The $7 billion worth of promised financial relief could turn out to be all the sanctions relief that Tehran gets. The painstakingly constructed wall of economic pressure, so effectively heightened these past two years under the Americans’ direction, could yet hold. And if that pressure were maintained, and the regime felt its very survival was at stake a few months from now, it could yet cave and come clean.

But none of that’s going to occur, as the United States must have known. Surrounded by Iran-backing Russia, amoral China and the impotent Europeans, facing an Iran playing very smart cards from a very weak hand, the United States didn’t merely blink in Geneva. It closed its eyes.

The wall of sanctions is cracked now, and the crack will widen. Self-interested nations and hard-nosed businesspeople will see to that. The pressure is lifting. There’ll be no comprehensive deal six months from now — no deal, that is, that exposes and dismantles Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The Iranians are sighing with relief.

An unnamed senior Israeli official, presumably not a million miles from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was quoted on Channel 2 news Sunday night as saying that, in Geneva, “Obama established Iran as a nuclear threshold state.” Indeed so.

Does that mean the Iranians will now speed to the bomb? And if they did, would they use the bomb against Israel? No, and no. They’re unlikely to overtly flout the understandings they’ve reached with the world powers in the near future. Rather, as they argue over terms and battle relentlessly to destroy the sanctions regime, they’ll seek to entrench the current situation in which the military aspects of their program remain off-limits to the world’s prying eyes.

And as its economy revives, nuclear-threshold state Iran will gradually assert itself as a regional heavyweight, with the leverage and clout to pursue its rapacious territorial and ideological goals, most emphatically including the ongoing effort to weaken and isolate and demonize and threaten Israel. And Israel will find its capacity to respond necessarily limited.

Landau has not entirely given up hope. She notes that a comprehensive deal would need to cover all aspects of the Iranian program, include “highly intrusive verification mechanisms, expose all past weaponization activities and ensure rollback from all military aspirations.” For that to be achieved, she stresses, the international community will have to hold firm on sanctions pressure as Iran complains and obfuscates and argues and exploits divisions in the P5+1 and uses every other trick in the book in the coming months. “You’ll need all possible leverage to get a full deal,” she says. “And without a full deal, you’ve lost.”

Trouble is, the Americans signaled the easing of that crucial leverage in Geneva on Sunday. The US, that is, let Iran off the hook.