WarSclerotic

Iran nuclear talks adjourn, Netanyahu leaves Moscow ’empty-handed’ | The Times of Israel.

Brief Geneva meeting lays groundwork for further talks, US says; Netanyahu demands ‘full freeze’ in Iranian program; Khamenei says Israel is ‘rabid dog… not human’

By Stuart Winer November 20, 2013, 6:32 pm Updated: November 20, 2013, 8:39 pm

Talks between Iran and world powers on an interim deal over Iran’s nuclear program resumed and then quickly adjourned Wednesday evening in Geneva, with the plenary session lasting a mere 10 minutes. More talks are expected in the coming days.

Just beforehand, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton met with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who voiced optimism about the negotiations.

Meanwhile in Moscow, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at a joint press conference with President Vladimir Putin, reiterated his demand for the full dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program. Israel’s Channel 2 news reported, however, that Putin made “no promises” to Netanyahu that Russia would seek stiffer terms for Iran in the interim deal, and said that the prime minister would thus be leaving Moscow empty-handed.

Netanyahu insisted that the international community must demand the closure of Iran’s heavy water facility in Arak, and the cessation of all Iranian uranium enrichment. “We believe it is possible to reach a better agreement, but it requires us to be consistent and persistent,” he said.

Putin remarked that Moscow was optimistic about the talks in Geneva and hoped a mutually acceptable solution would be found.

A senior US administration official told a Guardian reporter that the meeting between the P5+1 nations and Iranian representatives was unusually brief because it “was meant as a quick off on how we are going forward.” The “text of agreement is on the table,” the US official said, and would be discussed in the coming days by the representatives of Iran and world powers.

An American official, commenting on Iran’s demand that the world powers recognize its right to enrich uranium, said that “I believe it’s possible to navigate this matter in the framework of the agreement,” Israel Radio reported.

The talks resumed in Geneva hours after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had referred to Israel — which he called “the Zionist regime” — as “the rabid dog of the region.” Khamenei said Europe felt pressed to make concessions to the Zionists “because of their economic network,” but said the Zionist entity was doomed to collapse, and that its people “should not be called humans,” according to a Channel 2 translation of his comments.

Speaking to some 50,000 members of a paramilitary militia, Khamenei also said Israel would disappear. “The Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse,” he said, according to French news agency AFP. “Any phenomenon that is created by force cannot endure.”

TV footage showed the crowd shouting, “Death to Israel.”

Earlier in the afternoon, Ashton met with Zarif in the lead-up to the multinational talks aimed as resolving concerns over Iran’s rogue nuclear program. Zarif and his deputy, Abbas Araqchi, said the meeting was “constructive and useful,” BBC correspondent Susanne Kianpour tweeted after the get-together with Ashton. China‘s Deputy Foreign Minister Li Baodong also told Kianpour that “things are on track” for a deal with Iran.

Araqchi said that if there were good results from the day’s talks a draft agreement could be discussed on Friday.

Netanyahu had flown to Moscow earlier Wednesday, urging more stringent terms for an interim deal with Iran. At their joint press conference, Netanyahu called on the international community to stand by what he said were its original demands for an end to all enrichment of uranium by Iran, the export of all already enriched material, and the closure of the under-construction heavy water plant at Arak. Netanyahu said Israel and Russia “share the goal” of preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons.

In comments Wednesday, US President Barack Obama said the goal of the interim deal was that Iran would halt the “advance” of its nuclear program and “roll back” some elements of it, while also accepting more serious international inspections of its nuclear facilities.

Ahead of Wednesday’s talks, and a possible deal between the world powers and Tehran, the Washington Post published a brief survey on Wednesday that indicated that while most Americans favor reaching an interim agreement, there’s significant doubt that it would prevent Iran from ultimately obtaining nuclear weapons.

Asked if they support signing an agreement that would see some sanctions lifted from Iran in return for a reduction in its nuclear program that would maker it hard to produce weapons, 64% agreed and 30% opposed.

However, when asked how confident they were that such an agreement would prevent Iran from developing atomic weapons, only 36% said they were and 61% said they were not confident the deal would work.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll sampled by telephone 1,006 adults and had a 3.5% margin of error.

Speaking to new recruits Wednesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said, “It is good that the world is busy trying to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. As a military commander, it’s my role to ensure that we continue to strengthen relevant capabilities.”

Iran is hoping to negotiate an easing of sanctions placed on the country in an effort to force it to roll back is nuclear program.

A round of meetings earlier in November nearly ended with the inking of an interim deal — under which Iran would have frozen part of its program in exchange for an easing of non-core sanctions — despite Israel’s strong objection to any agreement that leaves Iran with the ability to develop nuclear weapons. The deal on the table reportedly allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium to 3.5% during the six-month interim period during which a full deal would be sought.

French objections to the interim terms, under which Iran would also have been permitted to continue work on its Arak heavy water facility, apparently scuppered an agreement 10 days ago.

Israel Hayom | With ‘bad’ deal in sight, Israel places its bets on France.

As nuke talks kick off, Khamenei lashes Israel but sidles up to US | The Times of Israel.

( The world needs to be rid of the pernicious evil of this man and his cohorts, regardless of the issue of nukes.  Will it be Israel who does it?  If we don’t, who will?  God help us and all of mankind… – JW )

Ayatollah calls for better ties with Washington, but crowd chants of ‘Death to America’; Chinese president urges Iranian counterpart to sign deal

By Spencer Ho November 20, 2013, 12:16 pm

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (photo credit: AP/Office of the Supreme Leader)

Iran wants to have “friendly” ties with the United States, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a public address Wednesday, as representatives of Tehran and world powers arrived in Geneva for a new round of nuclear talks.

Speaking to some 50,000 members of the Basij paramilitary volunteer militia, Khamenei also lambasted Israel, which he said was ripe for collapse.

“The (Israeli) Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse,” he said, according to French news agency AFP. “Any phenomenon that is created by force cannot endure.”

The ayatollah, however, struck a decidedly friendlier tone toward the US.

“We want to have friendly relations with all nations, even the United States,” he told the Basij militiamen. “We are not hostile to the American nation. They are like other nations in the world,” he said, according to a Reuters account.

The Basij audience responded by chanting ”Death to America.”

Khamenei spoke as high-stake talks over Iran’s nuclear program in Geneva were set to kick off.

He said he was giving negotiators convening in Geneva Wednesday a free hand to manage nuclear talks, but had set red lines for them.

“We do insist that we will not step back one iota from our rights,” Khamenei said. ”We do not intervene in the details of these talks. There are certain red lines and limits. These have to be observed. They are instructed to abide by those limits.”

“I insist that the rights of the Iranian people, including nuclear rights, should be considered,” he added.

He admonished France for not supporting a deal at the last meeting, saying it was “not only succumbing to the United States, but kneeling before the Israeli regime.”

Iran and six world powers are scheduled to begin a third installment of negotiations Wednesday with the goal of resurrecting an interim deal that fell apart at the eleventh hour of the last round of talks.

President Barack Obama expressed some doubt Tuesday as to whether Iran and the world powers could keep up the momentum from the last round of talks and strike a deal.

“I don’t know if we’ll be able to close a deal this week or next week; we have been very firm with the Iranians even on the interim deal about what we expect,” he told a conference in Washington, hours after meeting with top senators.”

Obama is at odds with US lawmakers and Israel over signing a preliminary deal with Iran that would freeze its program while easing some of the sanctions the US and other countries have placed on Iran. At the center of the dispute is Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which opponents demand Iran dismantle before it gets any relief from sanctions. Iran insists that its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.

On Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Iran to seal a deal with Western powers at the upcoming negotiations.

“China hopes Iran seizes the opportunity, maintains the dialogue momentum and seeks the greatest common factor to strive for the best results,” Xi Jinping was cited by Chinese news source Xinhua in a phone call with Rouhani, according to Reuters.

China is Iran’s largest oil customer and has been consistent critic of unilateral sanctions placed on Tehran by the US and its allies.

President Rouhani implored the Chinese president to continue with its support.

“We expect China as a major and responsible country in the international community to play its role against excessive demands of some countries,” Rouhani said, according to Iran’s PressTV.

Netanyahu in Russia for talks with Putin | The Times of Israel.

PM hopes to convince Kremlin to back a slightly tougher deal for Iran at newest round of nuclear talks

By Times of Israel staff November 20, 2013, 1:56 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Jerusalem on June 25, 2012 (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem/Pool/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Russia Wednesday for a meeting with Russian President Vladmir Putin to discuss nuclear talks with Iran, among other issues.

While Israel does not expect that the Kremlin will change its position significantly on Iran, the prime minister will try to elicit help from Russia to tailor any agreement more to Israeli standards, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin, who will accompany Netanyahu on the trip, Israel Radio reported.

“[We] don’t expect that Russia will adopt Israel’s views [on Iran], but even a slight change in Russia’s position could affect the expected agreement between the [world] powers and Iran,” he said.

Iran and six world powers are scheduled to begin a third installment of negotiations Wednesday with the goal of resurrecting an interim deal that fell apart at the eleventh hour of the last round of talks.

Russia is a staunch supporter of Iran, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Saturday that there is a “very good” chance that the next meeting will produce an preliminary agreement, but that there are some tough issues to resolve. He also laid the blame for the failure of the last round on the US for bowing to pressure from France to add last-minute changes to a working draft.

Netanyahu last visited Russia in May, when he and Putin met for emergency talks at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss the situation in Syria, amid concerns that Moscow could soon provide Damascus with a cutting-edge missile defense system.

France says Iran comments on Israel complicate nuke talks | The Times of Israel.

Ayatollah calls Israel ‘rabid dog,’ drawing harsh response from Paris as new round of negotiations begin

By AP and Times of Israel staff November 20, 2013, 2:24 pm

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to the crowd after speaking in Tehran earlier this year. (photo credit: AP/Office of the Supreme Leader)

PARIS — The French government spokeswoman says President Francois Hollande believes comments by Iran’s supreme leader about Israel are “unacceptable” and complicate talks between world powers and the Islamic regime over its nuclear program.

French government spokeswoman Najat Vallaud-Belkacem told reporters that Hollande’s cabinet discussed the Iran nuclear dossier just hours before negotiations between Iran and six world powers were set to resume in Geneva.

She said, however, that France still hopes for a deal and its position has not changed in the talks.

Hollande was referring to comments attributed earlier to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking to a gathering of the Basij force, which is controlled by Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard.

In them, the Iranian leader referred to Israel — “the Zionist regime” — as “the rabid dog of the region.”

Speaking to some 50,000 members of the paramilitary volunteer militia, Khamenei also said Israel was ripe for collapse.

“The (Israeli) Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to collapse,” he said, according to French news agency AFP. “Any phenomenon that is created by force cannot endure.”

On eve on nuclear talks, Khamenei says Israel ‘doomed to extinction’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

As Netanyahu takes off for last ditch effort to block nuclear deal with Iran, Khamenei claims Iran will never give up nuclear rights, blames France for ‘kneeling before Israel’, levels indirect threat to ‘slap aggressors in face’

News agencies

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took off on Thursday for Russia in a last-minute bid to sway an emerging deal with Iran over its contested nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tehran wanted friendly ties with all countries, including the United States but said that Israel is “doomed to extinction.”

“The Zionist regime is a regime whose pillars are extremely shaky and is doomed to extinction,” Khamenei told commanders of the hardline Basij militia force in Tehran.

“Any phenomenon that is created by force cannot endure,” he said in comments broadcast live on state television. “The enemies of Iran sometimes and particularly the rabid dog of the region – the Zionist regime – malevolently claim that Iran is a threat to the entire world,” Khamenei said.

Netanyahu is to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Wednesday evening to voice his concerns about the deal being hammered out at talks in Geneva.On Thursday, he will address members of the Russian Jewish community.

Nuclear talks (Photo: Reuters)

Before an audience of militiamen, Khamenei said he would not allow any “retreat” on its rights: “I insist on stabilizing the rights of the Iranian nation, including the nuclear rights,” Khamenei told the militiamen of the Basij force in Tehran, in remarks broadcast live on state television.

“I insist on not retreating one step from the rights of the Iranian nation,” he said, adding that “We (Iran) want to have friendly relations with all nations, even the United States. We are not hostile to the American nation. They are like other nations in the world,” he said.

Khamenei took special effort to slam France, which took a hardliner position regarding the deal with Iran, saying French officials were “not only succumbing to the United States, but they are kneeling before the Israeli regime” and said Iran would “slap aggressors in the face in such a way they will never forget it” without mentioning any specific country.

In response, the militiamen chanted “Death to America.”

Iranian President Hassan Rohani made similar claims in phone call to Britan’s Prime Minister David Camron: “As Iran is determined that its nuclear activities will remain peaceful, it will strongly defend its nuclear rights,” the official IRNA news agency reported Rohani as telling Cameron.

“We will accept no discrimination on this issue. The language of respect must replace that of threats and sanctions,” he added.

Israel is staunchly opposed to the mooted interim agreement, insisting it will give Iran vital sanctions relief while failing to halt Tehran’s alleged march towards a “breakout” nuclear weapons capability.

Russian stance

The P5+1 – of which Russia is a member alongside the United States, China, France, Britain and Germany – will reconvene with Iran on Wednesday in Geneva for talks on the program.

“We hope the efforts that are being made will be crowned with success at the meeting that opens today in Geneva,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a joint news conference after talks with Brazilian Foreign Minister Luiz Alberto Figueiredo.

Lavrov said in remarks broadcast on Saturday that chances of reaching an agreement were very good and the opportunity should not be passed up.

He has also suggested Iran is prepared to produce less enriched uranium and halt production of uranium enriched to a fissile concentration of 20 percent, a relatively short step from weapons-grade material. Those are two of the steps Western powers want Iran to take.

Russia, which built Iran’s first nuclear power plant and has much warmer ties with Tehran than the United States does, has expressed less suspicion than Western powers that Iran may be seeking to develop nuclear weapons capability. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

The last round of talks with Iran that ended on November 10 came tantalizingly close to a framework agreement that supporters say would bolster Iran’s new president, a reputed moderate, and buy time for negotiating a comprehensive deal.

Moscow has expressed hope the differences could be ironed out, with Putin telling his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rohani on Monday that “a real chance has now emerged for finding a solution to this longstanding problem.”

Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Zeev Elkin, said his country did not expect a radical change in Moscow’s stance.

“Russia is not about to espouse the Israeli position,” he told public radio ahead of taking off to Russia with Netanyahu. “But any small budge could influence the whole process.”

Iranian news agency IRNA said Rohani also held talks on the telephone with Chinese President Xi Jinping, telling him Tehran was seeking “an accord which preserves its rights and shows that the Iranian nuclear program is totally peaceful.”

He called for China to oppose “excessive demands of certain countries,” referring to France which took a tough stand at the last round of talks in Geneva at the start of November.

Parliament speaker Ali Larijani, meanwhile, insisted in a speech to MPs that the Islamic republic would fully defend “its nuclear rights” in Geneva.

AFP, the Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report

Liberman: It’s time for Israel to look for allies other than the United States | JPost | Israel News.

By JPOST.COM STAFF

11/20/2013 14:28

Foreign minister says “for many years Israel’s foreign policy was one directional towards Washington, but my policy has many more directions”; stresses peace with Palestinians will come only after economy strengthens.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said Wednesday that Israel should focus on making new allies as opposed to relying solely on its relationship with the United States.

During a speech given at the Sderot Conference, Liberman stressed the importance of not putting too much focus on America as Israel’s main ally. “For many years Israel’s foreign policy was one directional towards Washington, but my policy has many more directions.”

Liberman, who returned to his post last week after being acquitted of fraud charges, said “the Americans today are dealing with too many challenges and I wouldn’t want to be in their place. They are busy in Iran and North Korea and also have economic and immigration problems.”

The foreign minister’s comments came as Washington and Jerusalem have butted heads recently regarding sanctions and nuclear talks with Iran. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State John Kerry have publicly disagreed about pursuing a diplomatic agreement with Iran.

Regarding the peace process, Liberman said “we can build peace but we can’t force it. The order of priorities must be first Israeli security, afterward the Palestinian economy and then peace. We can’t ruin this order. We will come to peace without negotiatiors when the economic situation improves”.

Liberman also attacked the treatment of Israel at the UN: “If i were to take the simplest statistic…since the founding of the security council there were 49 condemnations against Israel and only 3 against Iran.”

Western nations rush to restore business ties with Iran ahead of a nuclear deal and eased sanctions.

Five world powers plus one face Iran in Geneva

The six powers’ negotiating teams sat down in Geneva for resumed nuclear talks with Iran Wednesday, Nov. 20 in a haze of cautious optimism radiating from from Washington, Moscow and London about the prospects of the first accord to be signed with Tehran on a path toward resolving the controversy over its nuclear program.
Still, no one was laying bets on the deal, a preliminary accord providing six months for a comprehensive agreement to be discussed>

They know that Tehran is always unpredictable. Negotiators with the Islamic Republic have been bitten more than once. And so they can’t rule out the possibility of the Iranian negotiator at the last minute, as all pens are poised to sign, holding up the process by saying he is not authorized to agree on one point or another and must return home for further consultations.

This is a familiar Iranian ploy for extracting more concessions from the opposite side.

Looking on the bright side, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif posted a message on YouTube ahead of the meeting saying that there was “every possibility for success” and he looked forward to quick results in Geneva.
Vladimir Putin, too, after he talked by phone to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the Kremlin announced Tuesday, “There is a real chance for a nuclear deal.”

President Barack Obama was also upbeat about an accord, although he said he didn’t know if it would come this week or next. He assured The Wall Street Journal that the bulk of the sanctions regime would meanwhile remain.

Although the US President has promised that no more than “modest” sanctions relaxations would be granted in the framework of the preliminary accord, allied Western governments, especially in West Europe, are so certain that Obama is set on a historic accord between the US and Iran, that they can see his foot lifting off the sanctions brakes. They are therefore already engaged in direct talks with Tehran about resumed business after the accord is in the bag, on a scale that would dwarf the volume of sanctions relief.

France is the exception because its main trading partners in the region are in the Arab Gulf rather than Iran.
The sanctions architecture which took years to put in place is therefore likely to crumble fast, even if Tehran holds back from finalizing the preliminary agreement in Geneva.

So what motive does Iran have for a quick deal when a drawn-out delay promises such benefits as melting sanctions and a chance to squeeze the West for further concessions that leave its nuclear program in place and viable?

Elkin: Israel Can Act Alone Against Iran – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin

Flash 90

Israel will be able to stop Iran’s nuclear program on its own if necessary, Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin (Likud) said on Tuesday.

Speaking to Arutz Sheva a day before negotiations between Iran and the West are to resume in Geneva, Elkin backed recent statements by former national security adviser, Yaakov Amidror, and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett.

Amidror said on Sunday that Israel could stop Iran’s nuclear program “for a very long time” if it wanted to and that there was “no question” that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would be prepared to make the decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities unilaterally if necessary.

Bennett said on Monday that “Israel has the ability to defend itself, and Israel will defend itself if necessary.”

These statements, Elkin said, echo what Netanyahu himself said in his last speech at the United Nations.

“We’ve said things very clearly and this is what the Prime Minister said at the UN. We said that if the world does not act we will solve the problem alone, and we meant just that,” he stressed, adding, “We are able to act. It’s not easy. Our ability to cause damage to Iran’s nuclear program is not as strong as that of the Americans, but this ability is definitely there and we cannot sit back if we see that Iran is advancing towards a nuclear weapon.”

Elkin warned that the deal currently being offered to Iran could result in a similar situation as with North Korea.

“This deal is not good because it leaves a big chance that we will be surprised and Iran will break out towards a military-nuclear program, and an example of this is North Korea,” he said. “When you talk with the South Koreans you see exactly what is the price of a bad deal. It appears as though right now we are headed towards a bad deal, a deal in which Iran contributes irrelevant things that may have had significance a year or two ago, but in light of Iran’s technological progress have no meaning now.”

He noted that it cannot be said for certain that a deal with Iran will indeed be signed this week, pointing out the failure of the last round of talks due to France’s tough position towards Iran’s nuclear program.

“I agree that it is very likely that an agreement will be signed but it is not for sure,” said Elkin.

Ahead of Wednesday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif released a video in which he emphasized his nation’s “rights” and “dignity” in pursuing a nuclear program.

In the video Zarif claimed the Geneva talks have not “hit a dead end” following the collapse of the previous round of talks.

Meanwhile, U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice played down the impact that a limited lifting of economic sanctions would have on Iran.

Rice told CNN that the deal being offered to Iran by the West is “a good one.” Specifically, she said, it will roll back the Iranian nuclear program in key respects over a six-month period while increasing the transparency surrounding the program so that the Iranians “can’t sneak out or break out.”

On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that Israel has “every right” to voice opposition to a potential nuclear deal with Iran but declared that Netanyahu’s fears were unfounded.

“Nothing that we are doing here, in my judgment, will put Israel at any additional risk,” Kerry said. “In fact, let me make this clear, we believe it reduces risk.”

There is no credible US military option, and 9 other pointers from Jerusalem | The Times of Israel.

The Netanyahu government is not certain the US would have its back if it resorted to force. But Israel has defied the international community before, and would do so again if it saw no alternative

By David Horovitz November 20, 2013, 6:45 am

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama embrace at a ceremony held in honor of Obama as he lands at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv, on March 20, 2013 (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

As has been publicly unmistakable for the past 10 days, Israel and its key ally the United States are deeply at odds over the terms of an interim deal that may well be concluded shortly between the P5+1 countries and Iran. As talks on that deal resume in Geneva on Wednesday, the following are 10 pointers and insights on Israel’s assessments, positions, and possible actions.

1. Israel always knew the Obama Administration was all about “engagement” and that it would keep open the door to a diplomatic arrangement with Iran almost indefinitely. But there were those in Jerusalem who did not rule out an American resort to force, under certain circumstances, until the Syrian chemical weapons crisis over the summer. At that juncture, the horrified American public and Congressional reaction to the prospect of imminent conflict with Syria further hardened the Administration’s determination to do whatever it could to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis without resorting to force. And, since then, Israel has broadly concluded that — while the US insists it is not bluffing, and while it has made preparations for military action — there is no credible American military option.

2. Israel assumed that there were various back channel negotiations taking place between the US and Iran. Despite American pledges to fully coordinate with Israel in grappling with the rogue Iranian nuclear program, Jerusalem was not kept informed of all such contacts.

3. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was aware of the US game-plan for an interim deal en route to a more permanent arrangement. The news 10 days ago that this interim deal, as presented in Geneva by the P5+1 nations, would enable Iran to continue enrichment to 3.5% was deeply discomfiting but no great surprise; the news that Iran would be allowed — in the initial formulations of the deal — to continue work at the Arak heavy water facility, by contrast, was unexpected and profoundly troubling for Jerusalem. That facility, if work continues, will go live sometime next year, and then becomes deeply problematic to target in any military intervention.

4. Israel regards Secretary of State John Kerry’s interactions on the Iran negotiations in recent weeks as illogical, inconsistent and problematic. There is a fundamental contradiction between the secretary’s assurances that Israel has been kept fully updated and his insistence that Israel should not critique a deal about which it is less than fully informed. His assertion that Israel should not criticize the deal before it is done is regarded as risible, since once a deal is done, any criticism would be rendered irrelevant.

5. If, as seems highly likely, an interim deal is reached in Geneva this week or soon afterward, Israel is likely to publicly hold to its position that it reserves the right to defend itself and its people, and is not beholden to any agreement signed between the P5+1 nations and Iran.

6. History would suggest that Israel is entirely capable of defying the international community to act militarily if it regards itself to be facing an existential threat. It has defied the international community in the past, notably in 1948, 1956 and 1967. The Sinai 1956 circumstances make for interesting consideration: Israel believed it had some six months in which to act before the Egyptian army would have absorbed Soviet weaponry for which Israel felt it had no answer. And it acted.

7. Israeli-US tensions over Iran have now emphatically reached the level of a major crisis, involving a fundamental clash of interests. Much of this stems from structural differences: The US is a big country, war wary, a long way from Iran, and not threatened with annihilation. Israel is a small country, relatively close to Iran, potentially threatened with annihilation and with different military capabilities.

8. There is not absolute certainty that the United States would have Israel’s back in the event that it did resort to force.

9. If Israel’s leaders find themselves faced with the following equation: on the one hand, the imperative to protect eight million Israelis and the existence of the state and, on the other, the danger of enraging the international community, the choice would actually be quite straightforward.

10. Those in the know in Israel are convinced that, against Iran’s nuclear program, Israel has formidable capabilities. This is not to suggest that the Israeli Air Force would be scrambling on the day after a deal is signed with Iran. But the option to strike would be there.