WarSclerotic

Why France stood alone to scuttle Iran deal | The Times of Israel.

Yes, Paris seeks to play a larger role in the region as the US loses clout. And it has lucrative arms deals with the Saudis. And Hollande is due in Israel next week. But that’s not the whole story

By Raphael Ahren November 10, 2013, 6:50 pm

In 1979, France promised Iraq it would build it a light-water nuclear reactor to be fueled with uranium enriched to 93 percent. Israel perceived the reactor, at Osirak, as an existential threat and tried to dissuade Paris from going ahead with the project. After several attempts at diplomacy were ignored, then-prime minister Menachem Begin ordered an airstrike that destroyed the facility, on June 7, 1981.

This weekend, the very nation that three decades ago chose not to heed Israel’s warnings emerged as the only major power echoing Israel’s concerns in the negotiations over Iran’s rogue nuclear program. While five of the six world powers — the United States, Britain, Russia, China and Germany — were apparently ready to sign an interim agreement that would offer sanctions relief in return for a promised freeze in the Iranian program, an arrangement Israel considers “bad and dangerous,” France blocked what it called “a sucker’s deal.”

At first glance, the fact that France played odd man out appears peculiar. It is not known as Israel’s closest friend — certainly not closer than the US or Germany. Indeed, the European Union’s steadfast refusal until July to label the Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah a terrorist organization was blamed squarely on the French. Why, then, are they the ones spoiling the party, for a few days at least, for Tehran’s Shiite ayatollahs, Hezbollah’s main supporters?

“Let’s remember France has initiated strong sanctions against Iran. They define the Iranian nuclear program as the number one threat to world peace, so they themselves have an interest in this,” said Tsilla Hershco, a senior research associate at Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, who specializes in France’s involvement in the Middle East conflict.

Paris aspires to play a larger role in world affairs; after the US, France has the highest number of diplomatic offices across the globe, she noted, adding that the Middle East is seen as a “high-priority” area. Since America’s clout in the region appears to be waning — following the Obama administration’s perceived serial weakness in dealing with Egypt, Syria and Iran — France is more than happy to step in and extend its sphere of influence, she said.

Furthermore, France has high stakes in Sunni countries in the region that are fiercely opposed to Iran becoming a nuclear power. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is the region’s foremost buyer of French arms. “In light of the current economic situation in France, which really does not look so bright, these weapons deals are very important to the country,” Hershco said.

In late August, Paris reportedly signed a €1 billion ($1.34 billion) defense contract with Saudi Arabia, which included overhaul work on four frigates and two refueling ships.

“The Saudis are investing heavily in French agricultural, defense and food sectors,” the Qatar-based Al Jazeera reported. “The farmers of Brittany have laid off thousands of workers of late and a Saudi firm is stepping in take control of 52% of Doux, a poultry firm based there. [This is just] one example of the massive spending spree the Saudis are on.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, left, shakes hands with French President Francois Hollande during the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters last month (photo credit: AP/Craig Ruttle)

France also has flourishing defense cooperation with Israel, as well as major trade relations. President Francois Hollande is expected in Israel next Sunday, and while that visit alone would not be a significant factor in Paris’s stance in the nuclear negotiations with Iran, it may have been one more reason for the French decision to play hardball.

On Saturday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei slammed Paris for blocking the agreement in Geneva. “French officials have been openly hostile towards the Iranian nation over the past few years; this is an imprudent and inept move,” he tweeted in Persian and English, reiterating a speech he delivered earlier this year. “A wise man, particularly a wise politician, should never have the motivation to turn a neutral entity into an enemy.”

In March, Khamenei told religious pilgrims that in the past, Iran “never” had problems with France. “However, since the time of [former president Nicolas] Sarkozy, the French government has adopted a policy of opposing the Iranian nation and unfortunately the current French government is pursuing the same policy. In our opinion, this is a wrong move. It is ill-advised and unwise.”

In Geneva on Saturday, France’s Foreign Minister Fabius gave very specific reasons for his objections to the emerging deal. He said Tehran was resisting demands that it suspend work on its plutonium-producing reactor at Arak and downgrade its stockpile of higher-enriched uranium.

Which rather leads to a different question: Not “Why did France choose to stand alone against the deal?” But, rather, “why did the other major powers consider the terms acceptable?”

‘Israel will attack if you sign the deal, French MP told Fabius’ | The Times of Israel.

Paris legislator Meyer Habib, a friend of Netanyahu, called his FM in Geneva to warn of likely response should accord be signed, Israeli TV reports

By Times of Israel staff November 10, 2013, 8:53 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with the Foreign Minister of France, Laurent Fabius, at the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem, 25 August 2013 (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem/Pool/Flash90)

A French member of parliament telephoned French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in Geneva at the weekend to warn him that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities if the P5+1 nations did not stiffen their terms on a deal with Iran, Israel’s Channel 2 News reported Sunday.

“I know Bibi [Netanyahu],” the French MP, Meyer Habib, reportedly told Fabius, and predicted that the Israeli prime minister would resort to the use of force if the deal was approved in its form at the time.

France’s Fabius is widely reported to have scuppered the finalizing of the emerging deal late Saturday, leading to the halting of the negotiations with Iran, and an agreement to reconvene on November 20.

Explaining his concerns to reporters in Geneva, Fabius said Tehran was resisting demands that it suspend work on its plutonium-producing reactor at Arak and downgrade its stockpile of higher-enriched uranium.

Habib, the deputy president of the Jewish umbrella organization in France, was elected to the National Assembly in Paris in June, to represent the district of southern Europe, which includes French nationals residing in Israel.

“I have known Meyer Habib for many years and he is a good friend to me and to Israel,” Netanyahu said in French in a video of endorsement posted on YouTube in May. Standing next to Habib, Netanyahu continued in Hebrew: “He fights a lot for Israel, for public opinion, and cares intensely about the Land of Israel and Jerusalem, and he has helped me over the years deepen Israeli-French relations.”

The TV report on Sunday said Jerusalem believed that Netanyahu’s angry public criticism of the emerging deal, and his phone conversations with world leaders — including Presidents Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, and Francois Hollande, Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister David Cameron — had played a crucial role in stalling the deal, but that Israel was well aware that an agreement would be reached very soon. Netanyahu himself said Sunday that he was aware of the “strong desire” for a deal on the part of the P5+1 negotiators, and had asked the various leaders in his calls, “What’s the hurry?”

The report quoted sources in Jerusalem castigating the United States for its “radical eagerness” in seeking a deal, and saying that Washington appeared fearful of Iran.

Meyer Habib (photo credit: screen capture Meyer Habib/YouTube)

At Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu expressed outrage that under the terms of the emerging deal, “not a single centrifuge would be dismantled, not one.”

Israel believes the imminent deal will leave Iran with uranium enrichment capabilities, and thus enable it to become a nuclear breakout state at a time of its choosing.

Secretary of State John Kerry hit back at Netanyahu on Sunday, declaring, “I’m not sure that the prime minister, who I have great respect for, knows exactly what the amount or the terms are going to be because we haven’t arrived at them all yet. That’s what we’re negotiating.”

After the talks broke up in Geneva after midnight Saturday, Kerry complained about critics who were “jumping to conclusions” about the terms of the accord on the basis of “rumors or other parcels of information that somebody pretends to know.”

Netanyahu on Friday publicly pleaded with Kerry not to rush to sign what he called a “very, very bad deal.”

▶ Netanyahu on “Face the Nation” – Nov.10, 2013 – YouTube.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is continuing to pour cold water over the prospects of a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program even after talks between the Middle Eastern nation and six world powers collapsed early Sunday morning.

Engaging in direct talks with Iran for the first time in more than three decades, the U.S. and its allies sought to limit Iran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon in exchange for some sanctions relief. The talks were far enough along last week that Secretary Kerry flew to Geneva to participate, but ultimately failed after French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius implied the deal did not go far enough in constraining Iran’s ability to enrich uranium or to complete a reactor that will be able to produce plutonium.

“Iran gives practically nothing and it gets a hell of a lot,” Netanyahu said Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“That’s not a good deal. I hope — I can only express my wish — that the P5+1 use the time to get a good deal that takes away Iran’s nuclear military capability,” he said. The P5+1 is the group of six world powers negotiating with Iran, including the five permanent members of the U.N. Security council and Germany.

“I’m expressing, as I said, not only the concerns of Israel but the concerns of many in the region. Some of them say it aloud, some say it behind closed doors, but I’ll tell you this is the broad feeling here, broad feeling, that Iran might hit the jackpot here. And it’s not good. It’s not good for us, it’s not good for America, it’s not good for the Middle East, it’s not good for Europe either,” Netanyahu said.

The Israeli prime minister has repeatedly spoken out about his concerns over the U.S. negotiating with Iran. He argued that Iran got too much from the deal, as described to him by American sources, because it did not require them to dismantle a single centrifuge, and would set off a scramble among the international community to ease sanctions on the country. “Not a good idea, not a good deal. A very bad deal,” he said.

Former Defense Sec. Leon Panetta, also on “Face the Nation,” said it was appropriate for the U.S. to be wary of Iran’s intentions.

“We’ve got to be very skeptical,” Panetta said. “Iran is a country that has promoted terrorism. They’ve had a hidden enrichment facility that we had to find out about. So we’ve got to be skeptical and make sure that, even with some kind of interim agreement, that we know what the next steps are going to be in order to ensure that they really do stand by their word.”

“You better operate from a position of strength if you want to deal with the Iranians,” he added.

Any deal must question what will happen to enriched fuel that Iran already has, the country’s centrifuges, and heavy water reactors, Panetta said, and must address ensure that the country does not have any other hidden enrichment sites.

“The president and I share the goal of making sure that Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said of President Obama. “I think where we might have a difference of opinion is on how to prevent it.”
© 2013 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Israel-U.S. relations frayed over Middle East threats.

JERUSALEM – A draft deal with Iran on its nuclear program that Israel asserted would imperil its very existence is the latest sign that Israel and longtime ally the United States are as far apart as ever on how to deal with growing threats in the Middle East.

Analysts say the Obama administration needs to take Israel’s fears seriously, while the White House insists it is doing what is best for the security of Israel, the United States and the Middle East.

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator who has advised Democratic and Republican secretaries of state, said the rift may cause problems for the United States on multiple fronts, including a risk of dragging the United States into war with Iran.

“How this will play out is not clear,” Miller said. “I find it almost unimaginable this administration would conclude even an interim agreement with (Iranian President Hassan) Rouhani that left Israel angry and aggrieved and the relationship in even worse shape.”

Miller says Israeli frustration with the United States may have been greater at points in the past but he’d never seen Israeli ire expressed as publicly as has been done in recent days by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Headlines in the Israeli press seem to agree.

“If there were a synoptic map for diplomatic storms, the National Weather Service would be putting out a hurricane warning right now,” says Haaretz diplomatic correspondent Chemi Shalev. “And given that the turbulence is being caused by an issue long deemed to be critical to Israel’s very existence, we may actually be facing a rare Category 5 flare up, a ‘superstorm’ of U.S.-Israeli relations.”

The United States has been pushing for a deal in talks in Geneva to end a standoff between Iran and the West over a nuclear program that the USA suspects is aimed at making an atomic bomb, a possibility that Israel considers a threat to its existence.

But Netanyahu said the deal appeared headed toward allowing Iran to maintain its nuclear capabilities and at the same time seriously undermine economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the West to get it to back down.

Before waiting for the proposal to be announced, Netanyahu lashed out at its promoters, saying it was a “very bad deal” that would give Iran all it wants and do nothing to ensure it ends its capability to make a bomb.

France apparently agreed and in a swift move it went public over the weekend to announce that it could not endorse the proposal. The move may have ended the momentum toward a deal, though talks are scheduled to resume Nov. 20.

The Iranian question is just the latest issue to severely fray relations between Israel and the United States in recent months, along with the U.S. decision to tackle Syria’s chemical weapons with diplomacy, and President Obama’s emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian standoff as being the major problem facing the Middle East.

Israel complains that an increasingly radicalized Syria, the spread of Islamist ideology in Egypt and elsewhere, and a nuclear bomb in the hands of “Islamofacist fanatics” in Iran are the real problems for the world in the Middle East.

Jonathan Rynhold, a senior researcher at Bar Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said the “crisis of trust” isn’t just between Israel and the U.S. Most Middle East countries, he said, believe that a nuclear-armed Iran “would undermine the balance of power that has served everyone so well over the years.”

If Iran becomes “a nuclear threshold” state, “Saudi Arabia will quickly obtain nuclear weapons from Pakistan,” which reportedly developed its own nuclear weapons with help from the Saudis, Rynhold said.

“Egypt is already looking to Russia to supply it with conventional weapons and will, no doubt, seek to obtain nuclear capability, as will Turkey.”

The breakdown over Iran came amid the extraordinary public barbs between the two longtime allies.

Israeli news media was in a frenzy over a “tense” meeting Friday between Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Jerusalem. Kerry said publicly that people should not be “jumping to conclusions,” and White House spokesman Josh Earnest dismissed criticism from Israel for its “premature” comments on a deal not finalized.

Kerry also told Israel’s Channel 2 TV that Israel faced possible international isolation and violence with the Palestinians if his attempt to broker a peace deal for a Palestinian state failed.

An agitated Netanyahu lashed back that “no amount of pressure” would make Israel compromise on its basic security and national interests.

On Sunday it continued, with Netanyahu disclosing to his cabinet he told Kerry in private that Israel would not wait to see what deal emerged with Iran and would continue to lobby European leaders to stop it unless it ended Iran’s program.

His stance had already prompted a personal call from Obama and a high-ranking delegation of U.S. officials led by Wendy Sherman, U.S. undersecretary for political affairs, was to arrive in Israel on Sunday to talk to Netanyahu on the negotiations, according to Israel’s Haaretz newspaper.

Kerry shot back on Sunday that world powers had come close to a good deal with Iran in Geneva, telling NBC’s “Meet The Press” in a taped interview that, “We are not blind, and I don’t think we’re stupid.”

But Israel says it’s mystified by the foreign policy of the United States.

Netanyahu on Sunday said he was telling Western leaders that the proposed deal was dangerous for the world and the USA, not just Israel. He insisted to CBS’s “Face The Nation” that the purpose of the Geneva negotiations is to get Iran to bend to the will of the U.S. Security Council demand that it remove the technology and material used for making a possible bomb.

“I’m expressing not only the concerns of Israel but the concerns of many in the region,” he said. “I asked the leaders, what is the rush?”

The Jerusalem Post reported that a senior Israeli official said that the more the details accumulate on the direction of the Geneva talks, “the greater the puzzlement at the haste to sign an agreement that is so bad for the world.” The official said that the proposed deal would leave a military nuclear capability in Iran’s hands that would enable it to “break out” and build a nuclear bomb within a matter of weeks.

Naftali Bennett, a member of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said Sunday that the way forward is to not lessen economic sanctions on Iran as the U.S-backed proposal would do, but strengthen them. He suggested the Obama administration was backing off its original stand just so Iran will sign on to any agreement, and he praised other nations for opposing it.

“The deal needs to be the original deal which dismantles Iran’s entire war machine” he told Fox news. “Fortunately, France and other countries stopped this train,”

The French rebuke was stunning to those promoting the proposal. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called the proposal a “sucker’s deal” that did not take the concerns of Iran’s “neighbors” into account.

Iran state TV lashed out at opponents, describing France as being Israel’s “representative” at the talks. Reuters reported Sunday that a Twitter account believed run by the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “French officials have been openly hostile towards the Iranian nation over the past few years; this is an imprudent and inept move.”

The sticking points, say European negotiators such as France, is whether to demand a shutdown of a reactor that could produce weapons-grade nuclear fuel, what to do about Iran’s stockpile of higher-enriched uranium, and how much relief from economic sanctions to give to Tehran before it does anything to its program.

Israel has made it clear that the world will only be safe if the West insists that Iran eradicate, not stall, its ability to develop nuclear weapons.

“We need to keep up the pressure on Iran to avoid a physical attack on Iran,” Bennett said, referring to a possible military strike to stop Iran’s nuclear program. “Now is the time to prevent a nuclear 9-11.”

But some suggested Israel and those with it are standing in the way of a U.S. attempt to end Iran’s nuclear aims peacefully.

“Blow number one against diplomacy today by the French,” tweeted Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, a Washington-based group that opposes military action against Iran. “Next week, Congress will pass [new sanctions legislation against Iran]. Blow Number 2.”

Miller agrees that the rift between the United States and Israel may have serious consequences and soon. The frayed relationship makes it harder to gain Israeli backing for a final deal with Iran and to prevent a unilateral Israeli military strike.

Such a strike, with or without Obama’s approval, would hike oil prices and threaten the U.S. economy, Miller said. And with the U.S. Navy’s 5^th Fleet based in the Persian Gulf, it could cause the USA to be “dragged in and required to respond” to an Iranian counterattack, he said.

Rep. Trent Franks, a Republican from Arizona, warned that the president’s Israel policies – allowing Iran to dominate in Syria, insisting on a Palestinian state while the region is in turmoil, and offering Iran a deal that Israel clearly opposes – shows Obama and Kerry to be unsympathetic to Israeli security needs.

Iran’s nuclear capability “is truly an existential threat to Israel,” and Obama “has ignored Israel’s realities,” Franks said.

▶ John Kerry takes credit for no Nuke deal in Geneva – YouTube.

Meet the Press – Nov. 10, 2013

Truely breathtaking.  After being called out by Netanyahu and blocked by France, Kerry tries to make it seem like it was his idea all along.

“I meant to do that…”

How stupid does he think the world is?

Kerry brings a level of pathos to his office that is truly sui generis.

Iranian leaders urgently mull some nuclear flexibility. Rouhani tells Khamenei: The cupboard is bare!.

Iran’s smiling leaders face empty coffers

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif asked Sunday, Nov. 10 for an urgent meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the day after France aborted a nuclear accord at the Geneva conference with the six powers, debkafile’s exclusive sources report.
Before flying out of Geneva, Zarif called the president and warned him that unless Iran displayed a measure of flexibility, the negotiations with the powers would remain stalled – and badly-needed relief from sanctions stay out of reach – even at the reconvened conference on Nov. 20.
The two Iranian leaders estimate that the West will not give ground on two basic demands: the removal of Iran’s stock of 20-percent grade enriched uranium and a commitment not to activate the heavy water plant under construction at Arak. The completion of the reactor some time next year would therefore find Iran prohibited from using it under its international commitments.
In a public statement Sunday, Rouhani declared that enrichment is a red line for Iran. “We have said to the negotiating sides that we will not respond to any threat, sanction, humiliation or discrimination. The Islamic Republic has not and will not bow its head to threats from any authority.”
But privately, the president asked to be received by the supreme leader in order to warn him that persistent Iranian intransigence would blow up negotiations on the first, six-month step of a comprehensive agreement and bury the prospect of eased sanctions.

Our Iranian sources doubt whether Khamenei will agree to the export of Iran’s 20-percent refined uranium stock out of the country, but he might consider its conversion into fuel rods to allay the concerns Western delegates raised in Geneva that Iran had accumulated this material ready for assembling a nuclear weapon.
Rouhani and Zarif are also expected to ask the leader for permission to accept a freeze on the introduction of new centrifuges at the enrichment plants. They will tell him that this restraint needs to hold good for no more than a six-month period and would meanwhile elicit relaxations of some sanctions.

The president warned Khamenei earlier that the Iranian treasury is empty and without some sanction relief in the next couple of months, the government will be unable to cover its current operating expenses.

Western sources with access to the closed-door deliberations held in Geneva from Thursday to Saturday reveal that for the sake of a deal, Washington was ready to offer Iran a sanctions relief package worth nearly $20bn, to save the Iranian economy from bankruptcy. Secretary of State John Kerry told Iran’s foreign minister the US was ready to advance at once $3 billion of the estimated $50 billion of Iranian assets frozen in Western banks, and also end restrictions on Iranian’s gold, petrochemical and car industries. This would have netted the Iranian treasury another $16.5 billion. Zarif asked the package to also include restoring SWIFT foreign transfer services to Iranian banks.

Both Washington and Tehran counted on a deal being clinched at the Geneva conference. Following its disappointing outcome, the Iranian regime is gripped with rising concern that the country’s further plunge into economic crisis may touch off violent protests and street demonstrations that could spill over into a popular uprising.

John Kerry: US not ‘blind’ or ‘stupid’ in Iran nuclear talks | JPost | Israel News.

(Kerry reduced to pathetically arguing that he’s not “blind or stupid;” I’m reminded of the quote, “Methinks he protests too much…” – JW )

By REUTERS, HERB KEINON

11/10/2013 16:19

US secretary of state tells NBC that America remains skeptical of Iran’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear program and will keep sanctions in place; meanwhile, Washington’s top negotiator with Iran arrives in Israel.

WASHINGTON – US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Sunday that the United States continues to be skeptical of Iran’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear program and will keep sanctions in place as talks continue.

“We are not blind, and I don’t think we’re stupid. I think we have a pretty strong sense of how to measure whether or not we are acting in the interests of our country and of the globe,” Kerry said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

The United States and its allies narrowed their differences with Tehran in talks over the weekend, but were not able to reach a deal as France believed the proposal did not adequately neutralize the risk of an Iranian atom bomb.

Israel has also voiced skepticism, warning that the Iran cannot be trusted until it dismantles its nuclear program, and it “utterly rejects” a deal which includes easing sanctions.

Kerry said the United States is aiming to get Tehran to halt further nuclear development as a first step toward a complete dismantling of the program. Washington will keep sanctions in place in the meantime, he said.

“Nobody has talked about getting rid of the current architecture of sanctions. The pressure will remain,” he said.

Meanwhile, Washington’s top negotiator with Iran, Wendy Sherman, arrived in Israel Sunday for a day of talks to brief Israel on the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.

Sherman, the undersecretary of state for political affairs and number three person in the State Department, was scheduled to meet national Security Advisor Yossi Cohen and top foreign and defense ministry officials.

She is not scheduled to meet Netanyahu, who has been unsparing in his criticism of the deal that was discussed over the weekend with Iran.

Sherman leads the US delegation to the talks. According to an American official, her meetings in Israel are part of “continuing our close coordination with Israel about our ongoing efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.”

Sherman generally comes to Jerusalem to brief Israeli officials after each round of negotiations with Iran.

Israel Hayom | ‘Surrender with your head held high’.

Ruthie Blum

Israel Hayom | As nuclear talks fail, Iran toughens stance.

Israel Hayom | ‘US capitulated’ on Iran deal, Jerusalem says.