WarSclerotic

Obama ‘gutting military’ by purging generals.

( Luis, thanks for this… JW )

Intended to send message ‘down through the ranks’

Published: 9 hours ago

▶ Iranian Nuclear Threat – Bernard Lewis – YouTube.

Why the MAD (mutual assured destruction) doctrine of the cold war won’t work visa vie Iran.

–

Israel Hayom | Obama’s ‘new’ Mideast policy: Modesty or pullback?.

Elliot Abrams

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points” here.

Saturday’s New York Times carries a remarkable story about the “new” Obama Middle East policy, based on interviews with National Security Advisor Susan Rice. The Times describes the policy as “modest,” but that is not the right word. The policy defines an American abandonment of leadership in the region.

On Iran, the new policy seeks a negotiated deal and previous claims that “all options are on the table” are gone. No one appears to have calculated how the American and Western negotiating positions are weakened when the Iranian fear of a military attack is eliminated. A second focus is the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process,” despite the fact that no sober Israeli or Palestinian official believes a deal can be reached at this time. The third focus is Syria, where the policy now appears to be centered on Geneva talks that are sinking even as the Times article appears in print. I would rate the new policy focus as 0 for 3.

What’s missing? A determination to end the Iranian nuclear weapons program — and to do so even if negotiations fail or if Iran’s position in the negotiations is unacceptable. A decision to prevent Iranian and Hezbollah expeditionary forces from achieving a victory in Syria that will change the balance of power in the entire region. A commitment to help those individuals in the region who are struggling peacefully for democracy and human rights. An American promise to allies, such as Jordan and the Gulf countries facing Iran, that we will stand by them in the face of refugee crises, economic difficulties, or Iranian aggression and subversion. Add it all up and what is missing is American leadership, and this is precisely the complaint – and the fear – of our friends in the region.

The Times story cannot be dismissed as sheer speculation; it is based on the words of the new National Security Advisor. It will hearten our enemies in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah and the Assad regime and Iran, and confirm to our friends there that they will be far more on their own for the next few years than they have been for most of the last few decades. Think of it this way: Who will be smiling when reading that article? An Israeli thinking about Iran’s nuclear weapons program, an Egyptian newspaper editor wondering about the limits of free speech, a Jordanian fearing a continuing flow of refugees from Syria and Hezbollah/Iranian dominance there, an Emirati worried about Iranian subversion — or Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Assad, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

From “Pressure Points” by Elliott Abrams. Reprinted with permission from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Mystery of missing ayatollah: Ali Khamenei’s three-week seclusion for work on nuclear deal with US.

Ayatollah Khamenei last seen Oct. 5

Spy services world wide have been mystified by the unusual absence from public view of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for nearly three weeks. He was last seen in public on Oct. 5 visiting the military college in Tehran with army chiefs.
According to one theory, he suffered a relapse from a chronic ailment and was secretly treated in the small hospital installed at his home. Another suggested he had gone into seclusion to escape the furor raging in his regime over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and relations wit the United States.
This dissonance erupted most recently in conflicting statements issued Friday, Oct. 26: One official reported that 20 percent uranium enrichment had been halted – only to be contradicted by another.

Khamenei can’t just drop out of sight unnoticed like some other world leaders because he routinely officiates at a heavy schedule of political and religious events.
His absence was widely remarked, when he failed, for instance, to deliver the keynote sermon at the annual Eid, Festival of the Sacrifice, two weeks ago, with explanation.
Neither did he send his usual message to this year’s pilgrimage to Mecca.

Indeed, the Shiite pilgrims abstained from demonstrations in closed tents during the hajj, an arrangement permitted under an agreement with the Saudi authorities after years of violent outbreaks.

And finally, no messages or blessings came from the supreme leader – not just for Eid but for Ghadir, a most important festival on the Shiite calendar. It is a celebration of the Shiite belief that Prophet Muhammad anointed Ali as his successor before a large assembly of the faithful – a claim repudiated by Sunni Muslims.
The rumor that Khamenei was undergoing life-saving medical treatment in the privacy of his home was, according to debkafile’s Iranian sources, denied by recent visitors who found him to be in good health and active. They said he had gone into seclusion by choice, to immerse himself in the final evaluation and drafting of the trilateral US-Russian-Iranian accord for resolving the issues of Iran’s nuclear program.

They add that this accord is already secretly in the bag. But the three leaders have decided not to break the news too abruptly. President Barack Obama is expected to announce publicly in the third week of December that an initial understanding has been reached on the road toward a partial and gradual accord. Ayatollah Khamenei and President Vladimir Putin are planning to drop word of a final agreement unfolding in stages, to avoid shock effects in Tehran as well as in other concerned Middle East capitals, such as Jerusalem and Riyadh.

Israel Hayom | PM: ‘Iran can enrich uranium from 3.5% to 90% in weeks’.

At Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu dismisses Iran’s claims that it would stop refining uranium above 5 percent • Technological improvements allow Iran to enrich uranium from 3.5% to 90% within a few weeks, says the prime minister.

Speaking to his cabinet meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran is willing to give up uranium enrichment to 20 percent and therfore discussion of this subject is irrelevant.”

Netanyahu added that “the importance of the subject has become redundant following technological improvements that allow Iran to enrich uranium from 3.5% to 90% within a few weeks. We have to increase the pressure on Iran because it continues to enrich uranium even while it negotiates.”

On Saturday, Israel had dismissed as “irrelevant” reports that Iran had halted its most sensitive uranium enrichment activity, and said Tehran’s nuclear program must be dismantled.

A senior member of Iran’s parliamentary national security commission was quoted as saying Iran had stopped refining uranium above the 5% required for civilian power stations, as it already had all the 20% enriched fuel it needed for a medical research reactor in Tehran.

This claim, however, was contradicted by Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee. Lending credence to the Israeli assessment, Boroujerdi told Iran’s state-run news agency IRNA on Saturday that “enrichment to 20% is continuing.”

Diplomats accredited to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said they had no confirmation Iran had halted enrichment of uranium to 20% — a sensitive issue because it is a relatively short technical step to increase that to the 90% needed to make a nuclear warhead.

“The discussion on whether or not Iran has ceased 20% enrichment is irrelevant,” an Israeli official said.

“Even if Iran stopped 20% enrichment, it is still equipped with advanced centrifuges that allow it to go from a level of 3.5% enrichment to a military grade 90% within a few weeks,” the official added.

Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon commented Sunday on the recent Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) report regarding Iran’s nuclear progress, saying that Israel will not sit idly by as Iran develops nuclear weapons.

“We have made it crystal clear — in all possible forums, that Israel will not stand by and watch Iran develop weaponry that will put us, the entire Middle East and eventually the world, under an Iranian umbrella of terror,” Danon told USA Today.

“This speedy enrichment capability will make timely detection and effective response to an Iranian nuclear breakout increasingly difficult,” he said.

According to Israel Radio, Danon labeled the recent ISIS report as one that could be used as another justification for a possible Israeli strike in Iran, before it has the chance to accumulate enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb.

World powers seeking a diplomatic solution to the nuclear dispute with Iran want it to stop enrichment. Iran indicated in talks that resumed in Geneva last week that it might scale back its program to win sanctions relief.

Israel, believed to be the Middle East’s only atomic power, says Iran must be stripped of enrichment capabilities.

“The international community must ensure the complete dismantling of the Iranian military nuclear program, and until then sanctions must be stepped up,” said the Israeli official.

Western officials have said Iran must stop enriching uranium to 20%, increase the transparency of its nuclear program, reduce its uranium stocks and take other steps to reassure the world that it is not after nuclear weapons.

Iran and six world powers — the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany — said that this month’s talks in Geneva were positive and constructive. Negotiations are due to resume there on November 7-8.

The meeting was the first since Iranian President Hasan Rouhani came to office in August, promising to try to resolve the nuclear dispute and secure an easing of sanctions that have severely damaged Iran’s oil-dependent economy.

Iran touts ‘new approach’ with IAEA as fresh nuclear talks kick off | The Times of Israel.

Representatives from Tehran sitting down with UN’s watchdog and world powers in Vienna for parallel meetings on enrichment activity

By Stuart Winer October 28, 2013, 11:18 am

Delegates from the P5+1 and Iran meet in Geneva, at the start of two days of talks regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, Tuesday, October 15, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Fabrice Coffrini)

Iranian officials braced to begin another round of talks with International Atomic Energy Agency representatives on Monday, at the start of several days of meetings to resolve international concerns that the Islamic Republic is developing nuclear weapons.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was scheduled to meet with IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano in Vienna on Monday ahead of two days of technical talks between Iranian representatives and the UN’s watchdog.

On Wednesday, Iran will hold low-level technical talks with representatives from the six world powers engaged in parallel talks over curbing Tehran’s nuclear program.

Several rounds of talks between Tehran and the IAEA over opening up suspected nuclear sites to international oversight have failed to produce any headway, but Araqchi said Iran would bring new tactics to the table.

The talks “will focus on Iran’s new approach to negotiations with this international body,” Araqchi said according to a Sunday report from Iranian Press TV.

The two men also planned to talk about recent developments in meetings between Tehran and the P5+1 world powers, the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, plus Germany.

Shortly after the Araqchi-Amano, meeting technical and legal experts from Iran and the IAEA were scheduled to begin two days of talks about Iran’s nuclear program. IAEA experts are looking to investigate suspicions that Iran for years worked secretly on developing a nuclear weapons program.

There have already been 11 meetings since January between representatives of the two sides as the IAEA tries to negotiate access to some of Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to monitor activity within the sites.

The sides are scheduled to hold diplomatic-level meetings in Vienna on November 7 and 8.

The flurry of activity comes amid intensified efforts by the West to curb enrichment in Iran. A meeting in mid-October between Iran and the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany, known as the P5+1, produced cautious optimism that a deal could be reached to limit Iranian nuclear enrichment in exchange for eased sanctions.

The breakthrough came after years of inconclusive meetings. The talks in Geneva were focused on limiting Iranian nuclear programs that can be used both to generate power and make fissile warhead material.

The key elements of the talks are Iran’s uranium enrichment program and its plutonium heavy-water facility. Western nations argue that the 20 percent enriched uranium and the plutonium Iran is producing are not necessary for generating nuclear power and therefore must be halted with all such material removed from the country.

In an effort to pressure Tehran to agree to the demands, a series of suffocating sanctions has been enforced on Iran’s oil and financial sectors over the past couple of years. Tehran hopes to negotiate an easing of the sanctions without giving up its enrichment program.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi (photo credit: Screen capture YouTube/Press TV)

On Sunday, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani told China’s Phoenix news network that he believes a deal can be reached within a year, but Tehran will not halt the program if talks fail..

“The settlement of nuclear issues completely depends on the approaches and if a positive approach rules the negotiations and there exist some seriousness, one can hope for the settlement of issues in less than a year,” Larijani said according to a report in the state-run Fars news agency. “If the negotiations fail to yield results, we will continue the present path and approach that we are paving now.”

Israel has called for enrichment to cease completely, saying even low-grade uranium could be made suitable for a nuclear weapon in a short time with enough centrifuges running.

A report last week by the US-based Institute for Science and International Security, which has been tracking Iran’s nuclear program, estimated that Tehran could have enough material for a bomb in a number of weeks, should it choose to build one.

Iran says it has no nuclear arms and denies working toward one, claiming all its atomic activities are peaceful. While the talks with the IAEA and the P5+1 are formally separate, they are linked by concerns over Iran’s nuclear aspirations, and progress in one may result in advances in the other.

The diplomatic atmosphere between Iran and Western powers improved following the August installation of President Hasan Rouhani who is considered more moderate than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. During the United Nations General Assembly meetings at the beginning of September Iranian officials, including Rouhani, held ground-breaking meetings with Western leaders after years of diplomatic severance.

However, Israeli officials maintain that regardless of its diplomatic overtures to the West, Iran is still hell-bent on achieving nuclear weapons.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The president is in love – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: US has no intention of striking in Iran, and Israel won’t be able to attack behind Obama’s back

Smadar Peri

I recently took part in a series of closed discussions on the “dramatic change” in Iran, with the participation of some of our best minds and some of the most prominent experts in the Arab world. The common denominator was immediately evident: They were all concerned by the “charm offensive” of new Iranian President Hassan Rohani, and no one believed that Iran would agree to abandon the nuclear option.

Tehran did come to the negotiations in Geneva with some good intentions. It is easy to see the tight connection between the economic sanctions imposed on Iran and the task given by Supreme Leader Khamenei to Rohani: To get as many “trust building measures” from the Americans that will lead to the swift easing of sanctions. In return, the Iranians, like traders at a bazaar, will offer small concessions such as increased supervision on the nuclear facilities, where they will make sure that the uranium enrichment laboratories remain hidden.

Rohani himself revealed the cards when he made it clear that Iran’s nuclear scientists would not be unemployed and that nuclear development is an absolute right of the Islamic Republic. If this is the situation, what is there to negotiate about? They are negotiating on the time Iran will have to build a bomb. Israel says Iran will be able to build a bomb in a year – more or less – while the government in Washington says it will take Iran three to five years. If the West’s representatives apply pressure on the Iranians during the negotiations in Geneva, they may be able to get a “concessions” package from them, but Tehran will not fold.

The Arab experts are just as concerned as our experts are. I haven’t seen such frustration and helplessness in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states in a long time. Not only have America’s old allies been betrayed by Obama, now they don’t have anyone to lean on when the “big brother” in Washington is enthusiastic at their expense.

Suddenly, the Arab world is no longer divided into a moderate camp and an extremist camp. The dramatic developments have stretched a separation line between two fields: The Sunni field, which looks like a dried out, wrinkly woman, and the Iranian-Shiite arena, which is becoming popular and challenging. If we take our eyes off it for a second, we will be on the receiving end of a very dangerous response.

The Institute for National Security Studies near Tel Aviv University recently held a seminar on the Iranian issue. Some of the speakers supported the “no other choice” negotiations with the Iranians, while others insisted that the Iranians are trying buy time and throw sand in the eyes of the Western representatives. The pressure caused by the sanctions is extremely dangerous to the regime in Tehran. Should the Revolutionary Guards fail to block the millions of youngsters who have nothing to lose, Khamenei and the Guards are in for a shake-up.

The “bombing or bomb” formula has expired. Washington has no intention of attacking Iran, while Jerusalem warns that it will take “measures of its own.” But we will not be able to attack Iran behind the back of the administration in Washington.

So what is there left for us to do? Cooperate with the Sunni camp that has opened up to us behind the scenes and continue to pressure the West so that sanctions are not lifted before the Iranian nuclear program is halted. The sanctions and economic isolation have proven to be effective, so we must make certain that the gentleman from the White House continues to hold the whip and prove that he is not abandoning his allies.

But this won’t be easy. The Iranian charm is challenging Obama and his people. They should be reminded of the proper way to treat those who are trying to deceive them.

Mystery of missing ayatollah: Ali Khamenei’s three-week seclusion for work on nuclear deal with US.

Ayatollah Khamenei last seen Oct. 5

Spy services world wide have been mystified by the unusual absence from public view of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for nearly three weeks. He was last seen in public on Oct. 5 visiting the military college in Tehran with army chiefs.
According to one theory, he suffered a relapse from a chronic ailment and was secretly treated in the small hospital installed at his home. Another suggested he had gone into seclusion to escape the furor raging in his regime over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and relations wit the United States.
This dissonance erupted most recently in conflicting statements issued Friday, Oct. 26: One official reported that 20 percent uranium enrichment had been halted – only to be contradicted by another.

Khamenei can’t just drop out of sight unnoticed like some other world leaders because he routinely officiates at a heavy schedule of political and religious events.
His absence was widely remarked, when he failed, for instance, to deliver the keynote sermon at the annual Eid, Festival of the Sacrifice, two weeks ago, with explanation.
Neither did he send his usual message to this year’s pilgrimage to Mecca.

Indeed, the Shiite pilgrims abstained from demonstrations in closed tents during the hajj, an arrangement permitted under an agreement with the Saudi authorities after years of violent outbreaks.

And finally, no messages or blessings came from the supreme leader – not just for Eid but for Ghadir, a most important festival on the Shiite calendar. It is a celebration of the Shiite belief that Prophet Muhammad anointed Ali as his successor before a large assembly of the faithful – a claim repudiated by Sunni Muslims.
The rumor that Khamenei was undergoing life-saving medical treatment in the privacy of his home was, according to debkafile’s Iranian sources, denied by recent visitors who found him to be in good health and active. They said he had gone into seclusion by choice, to immerse himself in the final evaluation and drafting of the trilateral US-Russian-Iranian accord for resolving the issues of Iran’s nuclear program.

They add that this accord is already secretly in the bag. But the three leaders have decided not to break the news too abruptly. President Barack Obama is expected to announce publicly in the third week of December that an initial understanding has been reached on the road toward a partial and gradual accord. Ayatollah Khamenei and President Vladimir Putin are planning to drop word of a final agreement unfolding in stages, to avoid shock effects in Tehran as well as in other concerned Middle East capitals, such as Jerusalem and Riyadh.

IAF strikes underground rocket launchers in Gaza following rocket attacks on Israel | JPost | Israel News.

Israel strikes in response to 2 rockets fired at southern Israel from Gaza, one of which Iron Dome intercepts over Ashkelon; comes day after mortar fire from Gaza hits South and coincides with Palestinian prisoner release.

Bernard Lewis and Norman Podhortz on Iran’s Nuclear program. – YouTube.

Why the MAD (mutual assured destruction) doctrine of the cold war won’t work visa vie Iran.

–